Most media headlines this morning seemed to be all about Mitt and how he "won" Michigan, but this simplistic tale skipped over some key facts. One concern is, "Where does the delegate count stand?"
According to my favorite site for tracking these things, The Green Papers, Romney split the delegate count with Santorum at 15 apiece in Michigan.
After all the corrupt money, lies, hypocrisy and frenetic media buzz at best Romney secured a tie with Santorum. I'm thinking today that the corporate media won the Michigan primary with views, clicks and advertising revenue.
Meanwhile, in Arizona Romney secured all 29 delegates. What a system! There is method to this madness, (or madness to this method?)
A preview of Super Tuesday is just after the Rorschach squiggles...
By today nearly 13% of all delegates have been decided or at least projected to win After the tally of Super Tuesday results is complete, that percentage will grow to 34%.
Following is the breakdown by state for Super Tuesday. The column "Total delegates" usually includes 3 state party leaders that remain unpledged until the convention. (This is why the delegates awarded by congressional district plus at-large delegates don't add up to total delegates.) I've left Wyoming out because of the complexity of that process but results of their straw polling which most likely will lead to a proportional allocation of delegates is located at Frontloading HQ.
This table is not detailed enough to do accurate calculations. Each state has a number of twists (eg. thresholds that determine who gets awarded a share of delegates in a proportional scheme) that make calculations a bit more complex. In fact each of these primary states has a unique calculation process. The caucuses and convention are even more "creative". See The Green Papers for more details on all this if you're interested in the magical arts of delegate math. This is only meant to give readers a concise, approximate overview.
State |
Total Delegates* |
Process |
CD Delegates |
At-large Delegates |
Georgia |
76 |
primary |
42; 3 per CD; majority winner takes all; if no majority top 2 win |
31; proportional |
Ohio |
66 |
primary |
48; 3 per CD; winner takes all |
15; majority winner takes all; if no majority then proportional |
Tennessee |
58 |
primary |
27; 3 per CD; proportional |
28; proportional |
Virginia |
49 |
primary |
33; 3 per CD; winner take all |
13; majority winner takes all; if no majority then proportional |
Oklahoma |
43 |
primary |
15; 3 per CD; majority winner takes all, if no majority then proportional |
25; majority winner take all, if no majority then proportional |
Massachusetts |
41 |
primary |
27; 3 per CD; proportional |
11; proportional |
Vermont |
17 |
primary |
3; (only 1 CD) |
14; majority winner takes all; if no majority then proportional |
Idaho |
32 |
county caucus |
|
32; proportional |
North Dakota |
28 |
district caucus |
|
28; proportional |
Alaska |
27 |
district convention |
|
24; proportional |
I don't have a great deal of insight into most of these states and their conservative voters. But, "doing the math" even in play helps to understand how this entire process works. And that leads to a way to make better "ball park" estimates just from the dynamics of how delegate assignments are calculated.
For example by staying in the race and earning around 10-15% of the vote, Ron Paul makes it harder for the 3rd place finisher in any state to reach the percentage threshold often required to earn delegates in a proportional allotment of at-large delegates.
Because Santorum is not on the ballot in Virginia, Romney gets a nice boost there to help make up for losses elsewhere.
Paul will continue to have some showing among caucus states or any state with a proportional primary and no threshold (as MA appears to be).
I'm inclined to think Romney will fair the best on Super Tuesday but it may be near a tie with Santorum. He may only win 4 contests but he can still come out on top because of VA. Santorum will hang in there close by. Gingrich will take some delegates out of play in the South while Paul takes some away among caucus states. It still appears they're headed to a brokered convention to me.
So, just for fun here is my wild guess for how the delegate counts might drop on Super Tuesday. It's meant to show how certain delegate math rules lead to an overall result:
State |
Romney |
Santorum |
Gingrich |
Paul |
Georgia |
10 |
20 |
42 |
0 |
Ohio |
28 |
35 |
0 |
0 |
Tennessee |
17 |
35 |
3 |
0 |
Virginia |
46 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Oklahoma |
5 |
24 |
11 |
0 |
Massachusetts |
18 |
11 |
4 |
5 |
Vermont |
7 |
6 |
1 |
3 |
Idaho |
17 |
9 |
2 |
4 |
North Dakota |
8 |
15 |
1 |
4 |
Alaska |
12 |
9 |
1 |
5 |
TOTAL |
170 |
164 |
63 |
22 |