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8:22 AM PT: AZ-09: I can't imagine there are that many female Air Force pilots, either retired or on active duty, period, so it seems a bit remarkable that a second one is now running for Congress in Arizona, Wendy Rogers. (A couple of districts over, Martha McSally is seeking the GOP nomination in the AZ-08 special election.) Rogers joins three other Republicans in the race: Chandler City Councilman Martin Sepulveda, Maricopa County Supervisor Don Stapley, and Arizona Air National Guardsman Travis Grantham.

8:33 AM PT: FL-19: Lee County Commissioner Tammy Hall, one of a large group of Republicans vying to replace Rep. Connie Mack, is dropping out of the race. You can keep tabs on the rest of the field with our handy Florida cheat sheet.

8:42 AM PT: MD-06: Bill Clinton is endorsing financier John Delaney in the Democratic primary, and at this point, you don't even have to guess why—you just automatically know that Delaney must have been a big supporter of Hillary Clinton's. Indeed, according to the Washington Post, Delaney raised over $800,000 for HRC's presidential run. Meanwhile, Delaney's opponent for the nomination, state Sen. Rob Garagiolia, picked up the support of the Sierra Club.

8:53 AM PT: MI-03: This off-the-radar race went from "nowhere" to "huh, that might be interesting" to "okay, we've scored a really good get" in almost no time flat. Ex-state Rep. and former judge Steve Pestka announced on Monday that he'd take on dystopian freshman GOPer Justin Amash in the 3rd CD, less than a week after we first learned he was considering the race. Though Pestka hasn't served in office for some time, he's well-connected, has a good profile for this red-leaning district, and may, from what I understand, be wealthy. Pestka will first face Trevor Thomas, a gay rights activist and former staffer for ex-Gov. Jennifer Granholm, in the Democratic primary.

9:13 AM PT: NJ-05: This is freaking ridiculous. Just a day before he was set to announce, political commentator and former Frank Lautenberg chief-of-staff Jim McQueeny pulled the plug on his candidacy. Democrats had seemed pretty excited about him entering the race, and at least one actual candidate, Passaic County Freeholder Terry Duffy, was ready to defer to McQueeny in the event he joined the contest. But after all that, McQueeny cited "professional responsibilities" as his reason for declining—though of course I've gotta ask, did he forget about these professional responsibilities when he started telling everyone he would run? Argh, whatever.

In any event, that leaves Duffy, Teaneck deputy mayor Adam Gussen, and 30-year-old Marine Corps. Vet Jason Castle still vying for the Democratic nod to take on GOP Rep. Scott Garrett.

9:26 AM PT: NV-02: It looks like Republican Mark Amodei, who won the GOP nomination in last year's special election via a disputed party committee selection process rather than a primary, won't face a primary this year either. The two most likely challengers, former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle and Navy veteran Kurt Lippold, don't sound eager to take him on. Angle says only that "I’m keeping my options open" and will decide "in the near future." Lippold is even further from making a bid, saying "I don’t intend to run," but that if Amodei runs into any ethical or legal troubles, "I reserve the right to change my mind."

9:42 AM PT: ME-Sen: Well ugh. The Boston Globe reports that former independent Gov. Angus King will indeed run for Senate, "according to two close political advisors." This seriously screws up Democratic hopes of capturing Olympia Snowe's seat, given that King generally seems to have more appeal on the left than the right. He endorsed both John Kerry and Barack Obama, for instance... and he also endorsed the most likely Democratic nominee in the Senate race, Chellie Pingree, when she ran for re-election last cycle.

9:52 AM PT: NY-13: Ah, sweet vindication. Local Republicans went semi-nuts with both glee and anger late last week when ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner reached out to the media to say that he informed the FBI back in 2010 that a local rabbi, Yoshiyahu Yosef Pinto, complained to him that Republican Mike Grimm, then running for Congress on Staten Island, was extorting contributions from his congregants. (This is another angle to the major story about the same congregation the New York Times broke back in January.) Indeed, ex-Rep. Guy Molinari even bellowed that Weiner was a "pervert and proven liar"... but the only problem is that the FBI has confirmed Weiner's version of events—and then some!

Indeed, the AP managed to get a source to confirm that not only did Weiner bring these allegations to them, but that the feds are also "gathering information and considering whether or not to open a formal investigation into fundraising for Grimm by Pinto's followers and associates." Of course, don't forget that Grimm himself is a former FBI agent, which makes this prospect even more delicious.

9:54 AM PT: ME-Sen: Meanwhile, the state's other prominent independent, attorney and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Eliot Cutler, says he won't run for Senate, though he's encouraging King to get in.

10:01 AM PT: IL-10: There's nothing newsy in this piece, but it's a pretty good compare-and-contrast profile of all four Democrats seeking the nomination to run against GOP freshman Bob Dold in the 10th District.

10:14 AM PT (David Jarman): WA-06: We've got our first entrant in the race to replace Norm Dicks, who retired on Friday after 36 years in the House. And it's not surprise, but rather the guy who immediately got tagged 'frontrunner' before the ink was dry on the Dicks announcement: state Sen. Derek Kilmer. Kilmer, 38, in his second term in Kitsap Co.'s swingy LD-26, knows how to win tough races; he was re-elected pretty easily for the first time in 2010 at the same time as several other Dem freshmen in the Seattle burbs were losing much friendlier seats.

You can also scratch one other potential Democratic challenger off the list: Pierce Co. Prosecutor Mark Lindquist took to Facebook to say he's not running. The Olympian got three other Ds on the record about it over the weekend, though each sounding ambivalent (DINO-ish state Sen. Tim Sheldon says he'll "leave the door open," Tacoma mayor Marilyn Strickland said it's "something I will take into consideration," and retiring state Auditor Brian Sonntag said it's "certainly worth taking a look at"). As for a Republican, state Rep. Jan Angel (the only GOP state legislator anywhere in WA-06) said she "hasn't yet had time to think about" it, while both of the credible GOPers running in WA-10, Dick Muri and Stan Flemming (who don't live in WA-06), said they're staying in the 10th.

10:30 AM PT: OH-09: Ohio's congressional primaries are on Tuesday, and the race between Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich has now reached maximal hostility, so I thought this was a pretty good observation by a local strategist:

In one Kaptur radio ad that Kucinich’s campaign has called despicable and dishonest, she hits her rival for praising Jimmy Dimora, a former county commissioner now on trial in Ohio for racketeering. Kucinich’s campaign pointed out that he routinely honors constituents from his district — hundreds per year — by entering their names in the congressional record.

"You have to ask yourself whether this race is a lot closer than anybody thinks, or whether Kaptur’s people smell blood and understand that she could put him away," said Bill Burges, a Cleveland political consultant.

Burges pointed out that Kaptur must have data to back her decision to use such an odd line of attack against a politician with such obvious vulnerabilities; Kucinich is one of the most liberal members of the House, and has faced criticism for focusing too much on his national profile.

The Cleveland Plain-Dealer points out that the ad (which you can listen to at the link) targets a resolution honoring Dimora for his birthday over a decade ago, years before he faced criminal charges, so yeah, it does seem like a rather extreme attack. In any event, Kaptur has the geographic advantage in this race, and observers (myself included) have generally figured her to be favorite. But one thing we haven't seen is a single poll here, so perhaps the contest is more up-for-grabs than we've imagined.

Apart from this Dimora spot, there've been a flurry of last-minute ads from both sides. Kucinich finally seems to have gone on TV with this positive spot touting his work on behalf of "the people," while Kaptur has an ad featuring a World War II veteran praising her efforts to support vets. Kaptur also has another radio ad comparing Kucinich to Art Modell and LeBron James, two famous Clevelanders who bailed on the state—something Kaptur says Kucinich is still contemplating, given his recent refusal to rule out a second run for Congress this year in Washington state should he lose on Tuesday.

10:40 AM PT: TX-27: This seems like an incredibly tough row to hoe: Bastrop County Judge Ronnie McDonald is stepping down from the bench to consider a possible run for Congress in the redrawn 27th. McDonald is a Democrat, though, and the redrawn 27th plummeted from a district Barack Obama won by 53-46 in 2008 to one he lost by a huge 40-59 margin, so a Dem win here would be nothing short of stunning. If anything, I'd expect some action on the GOP side, given how flukey freshman Blake Farenthold's win was in 2010, plus the fact that he only represents about half of the constituents of the revised 27th. That kind of situation makes you think that some more established Republican office-holders might like to try making TX-27 their new home.

10:51 AM PT: WI-Sen: This is pretty funny. In his final act as George W. Bush's Secretary of Health and Human Services, ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson granted a waiver to then-Gov. Mitt Romney that allowed him to establish the universal healthcare program in the state of Massachusetts now known as Romneycare—aka the forerunner to Obamacare, aka that government program which makes veins pop out on the necks of conservatives like few other things.

11:13 AM PT: Arkansas & Nebraska (PDF): Filing deadlines in Arkansas and Nebraska passed on March 1, and you can find complete candidate lists for each state at the respective links. You'll also want to check out the Race Tracker Wiki, which not only lists actual candidates but everyone who considered and declined as well.

11:22 AM PT: NJ-Gov: Newark Star-Ledger reported Jarrett Renshaw takes a very comprehensive look at the field of Democrats who might challenge Gov. Chris Christie next year. The eight names he looks at: state Sen. Richard Codey, state Sen. Barbara Buono, Assembly Majority Leader Lou Greenwald, Newark Mayor Cory Booker, EPA chief Lisa Jackson, state Senate President Stephen Sweeney, Rep. Frank Pallone, and state Democratic Party chair John Wisniewski.

11:27 AM PT: WA Redistricting: Jeffmd has crunched the numbers, and now we have 2008 presidential election results and gubernatorial results (from the Chris Gregoire-Dino Rossi race) for Washington's new congressional districts. Remember, you can find all of our pres-by-CD numbers here.

11:31 AM PT: MI-03: Apparently in anticipation of Steve Pestka's entry into the race, Trevor Thomas rolled out endorsements from former Gov. Jennifer Granholm and former Lt. Gov. John Cherry. As we've noted, Thomas used to work for Granholm, so it would have been somewhat surprising had she not offered him her backing.

11:52 AM PT: CO-05: Robert Blaha, the wealthy businessman trying to challenge Rep. Doug Lamborn from the right (no mean feat!) in the Republican primary, is already on the air with TV and radio ads introducing himself to voters. In fact, according to Kurtis Lee at the Denver Post, he spent $75K last month and plans to spend the same this month as well. Colorado's primary isn't until June 26, so if Blaha keeps ramping up, he should have some pretty good name rec by the time election day rolls around.

12:16 PM PT: MA-Sen, OH-Sen, VA-Sen, NC-Gov: A ton of new polling just got blasted out over the weekend—far too much to cram into the digest. Fortunately, David Jarman wraps it all up in one handy post, looking at three new Senate polls (in Massachusetts, Ohio, and Virginia), and one gubernatorial survey (of the Democratic primary in North Carolina).

12:33 PM PT (David Jarman): WA redistricting: Here are the new Washington numbers in handy table form:



District Obama 2008

New lines
McCain 2008

New lines
Obama 2008

Old lines
McCain 2008

Old lines
Gregoire 2008

New lines
Rossi 2008

New lines
WA-01 56 42 62 36 50 50
WA-02 60 38 56 42 56 44
WA-03 51 47 52 46 47 53
WA-04 39 59 40 58 34 66
WA-05 46 51 46 52 46 54
WA-06 57 41 57 41 53 47
WA-07 80 18 84 15 76 24
WA-08 51 47 57 42 45 55
WA-09 69 30 59 40 63 37
WA-10 57 41 -- -- 54 45



12:59 PM PT: PA-12: It looks like Rep. Jason Altmire has survived the legal challenge to his petitions by fellow Rep. Mark Critz—for now. A quickie post in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette says that following a court ruling, Altmire is 150 over the 1,000-signature mark he needed to stay on the ballot. No word yet on whether Critz will appeal, though you've gotta check out Altmire's wildly over-the-top language in his press release. Sample: "Mark Critz has lowered himself to tactics usually reserved for elections to high school prom king." I didn't realize that in Pennsylvania, "prom king" was usually decided at the appellate court level.

1:12 PM PT: NY-21: Republican banker Bob Dieterich says he plans to run against third-term Dem Rep. Paul Tonko in whatever becomes of the 21st Congressional District, but this isn't an auspicious sign for his nascent campaign. Even though he's staging a formal announcement on Wednesday, an item in the Daily Gazette of Schenectady reports: "Dieterich wasn’t immediately available for comment."

1:14 PM PT: Following up on PA-12, Mark Critz's camp tells PoliticsPA that they're "currently exploring our legal options."

1:24 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-06: And scratch one more Dem off the list. State Sen. Christine Rolfes from Bainbridge Island, probably the only major Dem here who'd be appreciably to the left of Derek Kilmer, says she won't run. (Rolfes is brand-new to the Senate, having been promoted from the state House by appointment to fill a vacancy in 2011.)

1:27 PM PT: FL-06: This is a little old, but a fourth Republican has jumped into the race for this red-leaning open seat along Florida's northeastern coast, Jacksonville City Councilman Richard Clark. He joins state Rep. Frank Costello, former steakhouse CEO Craig Miller, and attorney Ron DeSantis.

1:53 PM PT: NC-08: Physician John Whitley is up with his first ad of the election season, which I believe may also make him the first candidate to take to the airwaves in the Republican primary (which is on May 8). In the spot, he touts his credentials as a "conservative" and a "Christian," and his support for "repeal[ing] Obamacare" and "traditional marriage values." A spokesman says via email: "It’s a full Fox News and News 14 buy on every cable system in the 8th district. It’s about a $35,000 buy over the next two weeks."

2:11 PM PT: CA-21: It's about a week old, but this is still an interesting link. The Fresno Bee's John Ellis reports that former state Sen. Dean Florez, the "please save us!" candidate many Democrats have long been hoping would enter the race for the open 21st CD, recently met with former Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante to discuss the contest. Bustamante, you'll recall, began expressing interest in running here late last month, and in the wake of this meeting, he said he's "coordinating" with Florez. Ellis takes this all to mean that Florez won't make a bid and that it's "all about Bustamante and whether he's in or out." We'll know very soon, though, since California's filing deadline is on Friday.

2:32 PM PT: ME-01: While we're waiting on Angus King and Chellie Pingree to make their decisions public, there's still some motion elsewhere in the ocean. Peter Chandler, the chief-of-staff to Dem Rep. Mike Michaud, is apparently looking at running in the likely-open 1st CD; though Michaud of course represents ME-02, Chandler lives in ME-01. Meanwhile, though Pingree still hasn't formally announced a run for Senate, she took the time to say that she thinks her daughter, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, is "very seriously thinking about" running to replace her in the House—should she make the jump, of course. (Otherwise, we'd have a really weird Francis H. Powers vs. Francis M. Powers situation on our hands.)

4:50 PM PT (James L): ME-Sen: The waiting game is now officially over: Angus King just announced that he'll run for Senate.


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Comment Preferences

  •  I agree with everything said here. (8+ / 0-)

    In the same spirit, let me say the following:

  •  Great work there David! (4+ / 0-)

    I'm sure this diary took all night to write. (Must remind you of those sleepless nights in college eh?)

    "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

    by ehstronghold on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:16:06 AM PST

  •  MEsen: King has made a decision (6+ / 0-)

    but is not ready to share yet

    http://politicalpulse.sunjournal.com/...

    i hope its a no

    •  What the hell is that? (7+ / 0-)

      Does this mean he's running? Or is he taking a page from Chris Christie's book and deciding to stage an elaborate press conference before saying no?

    •  It sounds like he may run.... (6+ / 0-)

      Why would we wait to announce his decision? Ugh! Luckily PPP made it seem like Pingree was leading in a two-way and a three-way.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:24:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd say it's a yes... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, Setsuna Mudo

      Because if it's a no there would be no reason to keep it to himself at this point.  If it's a yes he'd need to line up some things first - pull papers, register domain address and twitter handle etc

    •  More info (12+ / 0-)
      A Maine Democratic insider who knows both Pingree and King noted that the two had Thanksgiving dinner together last fall.

      While King is very interested in a Senate bid, he might not get in the race if it meant facing off against Pingree, said the Democratic insider, speaking on condition of anonymity.

      "It is an open question if Angus would run if Pingree runs," the Democratic source said. "There are a lot of weird electoral dynamics for that Senate race."

      King said it is true that he and Pingree are close friends, dating back three decades.

      But while that relationship might play some role in his thinking, "it can't necessarily decide what you are going to do," King said. "Ultimately, you have to do what is right for the country."

      http://www.kjonline.com/...

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

      by Paleo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:34:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe he runs for her house seat? (5+ / 0-)

        it does seem odd to delay the announcement.  however, with the deadline approaching and the GOPers likely fearing a run against King, maybe it's an intentional "scare-off" tactic.

        Who knows.....

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:38:41 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think someone noted he endorsed Pingree (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, pademocrat

        for Congress in 2010. So it will be awkward to criticize her during a Senate bid two years later. But maybe he could avoid that, and win on the strength of his own popularity.

        •  Angus will be making announcement at Bowdoin (5+ / 0-)

          college tonight, where he works

          https://twitter.com/...

          •  Why not Bates (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo

            It's supposed to be more exclusive and my former Philly roommate went there.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:59:56 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Really? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Setsuna Mudo, bumiputera

              I've always thought of Colby, Bates, and Bowdoin as all being in the same tier.

              21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:53:38 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think Bates just tries to seem that way (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Setsuna Mudo

                I honestly couldn't tell you a thing about them that's different.

                I'm also not sure how my roommate ended up there, coming from Ithaca NY.  he went to Bates for rowing (to my knowledge they are not known for it) and eventually he won a gold medal in Beijing.  

                So what little I know of Bates seems bass-ackward.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:01:45 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Bowdoin is much more selective (0+ / 0-)

                Current acceptance rates seem to be:

                Bowdoin - 19%
                Bates - 31%
                Colby - 34%

                http://www.studentadvisor.com/...

                •  Of course (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin, gabjoh

                  acceptance rates don't tell all. But that's an interesting gap.

                  21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                  by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:05:04 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  They've both come down (0+ / 0-)

                    Bates was at 26.9% in 2011, Bowdoin 15.6%.  In terms of real numbers its still actually very small.  Must be nice to be part of such a selective incoming class when it's only a few hundred people...ah the shame of attending a public school.

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:16:10 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  You're very right (0+ / 0-)

                    that they don't tell all. I was just riffing off rdw's comment about "exclusivity" above, which I think would be tightly linked to the acceptance rate, at least related to one particular reading of the word.

                    •  I've never bought into that (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      gabjoh

                      Acceptance rates have always made me laugh.  The lower the acceptance rate, supposedly the more exclusive.  With some places, yes it can be correlated.  But seriously the fact that 90% of people applying to Harvard aren't smart enough to know that they're not good enough to get into Harvard is how I read it.

                      Then again, I'm a public schooler.  I find the whole thing pretty ridiculous that people tout how many potential customers they turn away.  Certainly a sign of abject disdain for educational purpose when one of your most celebrated ideals is turning people away from an education.  

                      At the end of the day, when you get down to a college class of around 500 people, the acceptance rate of 19% vs 31% or 16% vs 27% really does come down to just a few hundred applicants.  it's not like 10,000 more people apply to one over the other, or that that many more students apply to one over the other.

                      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                      by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:30:29 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  As we know from our interest (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        sapelcovits

                        in politics, it's all relative. For example, winning a vote for senate by 10% in a smaller state might represent a smaller absolute margin than a 1% win in a big state. But it's the percentage we look at when considering how "decisive" that win was.

                        Also, having worked in admissions at a fairly similar college to those in Maine, I can tell you that having to deny 12% more applicants would be an absolutely brutal exercise. That would represent such a large chunk of the applicant pool, and would include amazing kids with amazing profiles and records.

                        Oh, and as sapelcovits illustrated elsewhere, the difference is more than just a few hundred applicants. You also need to take yield into account, as he did.

                        In other words, say you have two colleges with classes of 500 or so. Both have yields of 40%. However, one admits 20% (College A) and the other 35% (College B). The results would then look like this:

                        College A
                        # Accept: 1250
                        # Apply: 6250

                        College B
                        # Accept: 1250
                        # Apply: 3571

                        So, in this example, you have over 2500 more students being denied admission at College A than College B. That's a lot of kids! And you also need to take into account that there's a lot of self-selection in the admissions process, meaning that many students who would likely not have been admitted take themselves out of contention by not even applying.

                        PS. The numbers I used above are just meant to illustrate the general principle, not to match up precisely with Bowdoin and Bates. :)

                        •  So if Bates has a lower yield rate (0+ / 0-)

                          then it all works out to be even.  it's a thousand applicants.  Slightly more than a few hundred applications (and a few hundred admits, at most), but nowhere near the grand differences you seem to think there are.

                          Bates (2008-09)
                          http://www.parchment.com/...

                          Bowdoin (2008-09)
                          http://www.parchment.com/...

                          Bates (2011-2012)
                          http://www.bates.edu/...

                          Bowdoin (2011-12)
                          http://orient.bowdoin.edu/...

                          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                          by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:29:32 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Couldn't open your second Bowdoin link, (0+ / 0-)

                            but here's what I find:

                            Bates '15: 5196 apps, 1405 admits, 502 enrolled
                            Bowdoin '15: 6554 apps, ? admits, 485 enrolled

                            The Bates numbers are from your link; Bowdoin from:
                            http://www.bowdoin.edu/...

                            At any rate, I think we've worked this to death. ;-) I would just say, even according to your numbers, a difference of 1000 in the number of admitted students is very large. And also: I'm not sure why you don't trust percentages in this case. We use them all the time in politics. In terms of making sense of absolute numbers, they're the great equalizer.

                            Oh, and I just wanted to add that I think Bates is awesome, and extremely competitive. I don't know anyone who went to Bowdoin. But I have a good friend who went to Bates, and loved it. And the school's reputation is fantastic.

                          •  Oops, (0+ / 0-)

                            the line for Bowdoin should read:

                            Bates '15: 5196 apps, 1405 admits, 502 enrolled
                            Bowdoin '15: 6554 apps, 1055 admits, 485 enrolled

                            Had to back into the admit number for Bowdoin based on the admit rate in the link.

                          •  Because 1,000 isn't the difference in admits (0+ / 0-)

                            It's the difference in applicants.  The difference in admits is like 300.

                            Factor in Bates costs more than $10K per year and has a much smaller endowment to fund aid and it's not hard to think that Bowdoin might receive more applications because it's relatively more affordable.

                            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                            by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:12:38 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Selectivity (0+ / 0-)

                            is defined, unfortunately, by the number of students who are not admitted. In this case, that difference is over 1700.

                            By your analysis, if one school got ten thousand applicants and another got 1000, and they both admitted 500 students, they would both be equally selective.

                          •  No (0+ / 0-)

                            But when the application count is close and the admit count is close and the enrollment amount is almost identical, I'd argue they're about the same.

                            At teh end of the day, I'd bet they probably admitted a pretty decent number of the same students as I'm guessing applicants to both schools are pretty common and doubt their admission standards are insanely different.

                            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                            by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:29:02 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                      •  It's not that they aren't smart enough (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        gabjoh

                        to realize they don't have a shot. It's more, I think, that they are fine with spending...what is the application fee? $75 buck?...by rolling the dice. You could easily fill a class at Harvard a few times over with the types of kids that apply there.

                        As far as your point about absolute numbers, I've long suspected that part of the reason colleges have such ridiculously low acceptance rates is that people are just applying to more schools. (I was at one extreme end with at least 19 applications, for what it's worth.) You don't need tens of thousands of applicants to have the acceptance rate shoot down dramatically. You could simply see a few hundred more kids from different high schools in big states, like New York, New Jersey, and California, end up applying--say, one or two between 500 different high schools--and this by itself would make a big difference.

                        By the way, I am kind of embarrassed to ask this, but are colleges still allowed to use affirmative action? I bring this up because I have this theory that eliminating it would actually make it more difficult to get in, since a lot of the spoiled white kids who believe some faceless minority is stealing their rightful spot at Williams College (like the little turd whom I met at a separate event at a liberal arts college in Pennsylvania, complaining that some minority would prevent him from getting into Wesleyan) would then feel their chances are better. Similar to what I described above, it doesn't take all that many more kids that feel this way to make a big difference.

                        •  19 colleges?! Damn. (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          itskevin

                          and I thought I was overboard with 11. :P

                          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                          by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:24:52 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  I went through periods of not (0+ / 0-)

                            caring to caring wayyyyyy too much, several times back and forth. I also aimed too high, too low, and poorly in all sorts of other directions.

                          •  I'm still pissed (0+ / 0-)

                            That this common application thing exists.  Sure schools have supplements, but the having to write my name, address, DOB and so forth on application after application was annoying.  Stupid lack of technology (at the time).

                            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                            by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:31:39 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Haha I applied to one (0+ / 0-)

                            And got in =P

                            24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                            by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:41:40 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                •  Once you get past a certain level (0+ / 0-)

                  Especially how small these schools are, you're literally talking about a few hundred applications.  they're all pretty much the same.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:07:49 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Bowdoin (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    itskevin

                    has 1,777 undergraduates. Divide by four and round up, let's say the incoming class has 445 people. Someone on here says the yield is 43% (at least for some recent year). So that means 43% of accepted people = 445. Going by that, Bowdoin accepted about 1,035 people. If the acceptance rate is 19%, then you actually have about 5,447 people applying per year.

                    Obviously it's not a perfect calculation (and I think the acceptance rate that itskevin cited above and the yield I found might have been for different years), but it's definitely not limited to several hundred applicants.

                    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                    by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:13:25 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I meant the difference between the 2 schools (0+ / 0-)

                      And bates is lightly bigger...wait, why are we debating this :-)

                      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                      by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:19:06 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                •  My straight-A younger sister... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin

                  Applied to Bowdoin last year and was rejected.

                  Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:28:03 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  On a sort of related note, (0+ / 0-)

                    there was this girl a year above me in high school that I shared a few classed that, if I recall correctly, got accepted to pretty much every stellar school in the country: Cornell, Brown, Princeton, Columbia, Dartmouth, UPenn, Yale, Duke, Hopkins, Stanford, MIT, Amherst, Williams, Swarthmore, to name just a few. She ended up doing a seven-year BA/MD thing at Northwestern, which is itself a ridiculously impressive accomplishment. Except that, she didn't get into Harvard, and if I overheard something something correctly one day in the guidance office, she tried to transfer there. I found this a little ridiculous, even if she were unhappy at Northwestern (and, to be fair, I have no idea if she was.) But really, you get into more than enough good schools, and you still can't get over a Harvard rejection? Please...

                    •  Well, in all fairness (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      itskevin

                      not all top-tier schools are the same. For instance, let's say you go to Brown and you don't like the open curriculum, so you decide to transfer to a school with a core curriculum like Columbia or Chicago.

                      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                      by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:27:01 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I'll certainly admit the possibility of (0+ / 0-)

                        her just wanting a better fit. I am skeptical, though, because she said she really, really wanted to go to Harvard and because she was an Intel/Westinghouse/whatever they called it back then semi-finalist whose goal was to become a doctor. She would have graduated with her MD and have avoided all of the issues with applying to med school had she stuck with it.

              •  Completely off topic, but when I applied (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sapelcovits

                to Colby, I printed off the financial aid forms and sent them in signed at the bottom. In one of my more classic airhead/oblivious moments, I drew a line at the bottom of the page and signed it. I thought it was odd there was no space drawn in for me to sign, and it turns out, I was right, as I simply left the second page sitting on the printer tray. I got a call a few days later from the financial aid office that went something like, "Yeah, um...there were two pages, and you'll need to send in the other one." This incident probably didn't help my chances all that much, lol.

                •  I walked into a glass door right before my (7+ / 0-)

                  Harvard interview. The interviewer saw, too.

                  21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                  by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:07:30 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  That's hysterical! (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    AUBoy2007, bfen

                    I'd like to be more coordinated at age 27, instead of a taller, more built, more grown up version of the same guy who tried to catch a ball at second base in little league, let it him in in the teeth, and then cried like a bitch after, but I am not. I'm really just not. I walk into walls, stairs, trip over tables and chairs, and can even have bruises all over myself because of it. I break shit ALL. THE. TIME.

                    Anyway, what did the interviewer say? I came across like a complete fool to the guy who interviewed me for Brown. He was this very serious cardiac surgeon who intimidated me quite a bit. He was also, in his words, a conservative Republican. Leave it to me to get the one guy from Brown, of all places, to feel like that. (Not that I had much of a shot getting in, but still...)

                    •  The interviewer didn't comment IIRC (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      AUBoy2007, itskevin

                      he just silently judged me.

                      My favorite interview was actually my Yale one, so it was quite sad when they first deferred and then rejected me. Oh well. I've had a great academic experience at Chicago, so all's well that ends well I guess!

                      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                      by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:14:08 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I didn't know you went to Chicago. (0+ / 0-)

                        See what I mean when I say I am oblivious?

                        Hey, is it true they tried to shut down the library on Saturday nights some years ago, only to face a near riot from the (gigantically dorky--except for you, of course) students?

                        •  I'm pretty sure University of Chicago (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          The Caped Composer

                          is the only major institution in IL-01. (Actually, just kidding; IIT [Illinois Institute of Technology] and CSU [Chicago State University] both appear to be in the district. We obviously matter more, though. ;])

                          I haven't heard that library story. It's possible it happened before I came here. The students here are, however, gigantically dorky, and I'm not sure I'd exclude myself from that either.

                          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                          by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:33:46 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  In my defense, I usually don't notice (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            bfen

                            where people are from, even if it's in their lines that appear n every comment. Except for Hoosiers, that is. They appear to want to let anyone know they are from Indiana, although why that is, I am not sure. :]

                        •  I'm a U of Chicago alumna myself . . . (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          itskevin

                          . . . and, while I don't know of any riot happening, I will admit that I spent many a night, well into the bug-eyed wee hours, in that library!

                          28, chick, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01.

                          by The Caped Composer on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:48:16 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  The Reg isn't cool anymore (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            itskevin

                            They renovated Harper and closed the Shoreland, replacing it with a bigger dorm south of the Midway, and more or less closed off the A Level, making Harper the designated 24-hour study spot. So now the Reg has fallen from its glory days. Sadness (?).

                            21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                            by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:55:45 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

          •  He's getting in (9+ / 0-)

            http://www.google.com/...

            Which screws everything up.

            "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

            by Paleo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:01:03 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  This sucks (4+ / 0-)

              On the one hand, I hope he commits to caucusing with Democrats.

              On the other hand, if he does commit to that his support is more likely to be concentrated amongst Ds and D-leaning independents, threatening to split the vote and send a Republican to the Senate.

            •  Okay (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              rdw72777

              He's going to be Maine's next senator. The question is, what does Rep. Pingree do now? My guess is she stays put.

              Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:38:23 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  2014 options (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Setsuna Mudo, WisJohn

                Are pretty wide open.  I'm guessing the Cutler goes Guv, Pingree announces early against Collins and Collins retires.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:43:35 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  This is insane. (3+ / 0-)

                There is no evidence this race is over.

                (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:44:23 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I don't think you understand... (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  LordMike, itskevin, jncca

                  How popular Angus King is in Maine.

                  He left office with an approval rating in the 60s. This is a state where his two successors, former Gov. Baldacci and current Gov. LePage, were elected with less than 40% of the vote and never mustered approval ratings much higher than that. And although King hasn't held office for nearly a decade, his every political movement is front-page news in Maine. He's the independent version of Jeb Bush in Florida or Sen. Inouye in Hawaii.

                  Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:47:21 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  On DKE this usually goes without saying, but... (10+ / 0-)

                    Campaigns do matter.

                    Even if he is the favorite now, he's been out of politics for a decade and the election is six months away. Alot can happen.

                    •  Here's the reason I'm bearish on Rep. Pingree... (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      itskevin, gabjoh

                      In a three-way race: optics.

                      Yes, Pingree is a progressive woman, and I do think she would be a fantastic senator. I think she's a great congresswoman. And when I doubted her in 2010, worried about her underwhelming performance in 2008 and a couple of silly stories Republican strategists were licking their chops over, she impressed me by improving on her 2008 numbers despite a Republican wave.

                      Unfortunately, in a year when Democrats are trying to run against the monied elite, Pingree is (recently) married to a very, very wealthy media magnate. This is great in some regards; if she runs, she'll have money to burn, and if her husband flashes a bit of ankle with some well-timed, well-placed philanthropic efforts, she could look rather good. Against a Republican opponent only, I don't think it would be a real issue.

                      However, with King in the race, the dynamics shift. All of the sudden, you've got an automatic schism on the left. You're almost certainly going to see some Democrats, some of those for whom King has had warm words in the past and some of those who've had warm words for King, defecting to endorse the former governor. And that's all before you get into the issue of Sussman's personal wealth. A very smart King campaign, or an effort run by King's backers without the campaign's direct involvement, will exploit this issue to drive averse lefties to a perfectly acceptable, preternaturally viable alternative. People bothered by Sussman's tiny-fraction-of-a-1-percenter status who would shrug (or hold their nose) and vote for Pingree in a two-horse race with Atty. Gen. Schneider, Secy. Summers, or Treasurer Poliquin could, and likely would, break for King instead because they think he can win and they know that in the Senate, his voting record would resemble Pingree's anyway.

                      Look, I could be wrong, and it could turn out to be a total nonissue. Were I a Mainer, it would really be a nonissue for me, and I would probably vote for Pingree in November. But this is a rural state with a large blue-collar population and a strong sympathy for politicians with an independent streak. I think in a Pingree-King-Republican race, King has to be considered a significant favorite.

                      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:03:29 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Isn't it just as easy for her to run against (0+ / 0-)

                        people like her fiancee/husband? She doesn't have to call for the nationalization of Wall Street or anything. She can simply call for an end to the carried interest loophole, voice strong support for the Buffet Rule or something similar, and other such things, all the while saying, "I don't hate the investor community. I'm married to a member of it! I just think they should pay their fair share, just like most people in Maine."

                        •  And then we all get on our knees... (0+ / 0-)

                          And pray there's no funny business on any of Sussman's tax returns. Nothing about his effective tax rate being less than 14%, no offshoring, no liens. It's probably all kosher, but if it's not, that could be the ballgame.

                          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                          by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 04:13:05 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Maybe, maybe not. (0+ / 0-)

                            I don't know how a lot of people would react to it, simply because we aren't used to this sort of thing being a topic of discussion, including in Maine. I just don't think it'd be that big of a weight on her potential candidacy, should it ever happen, unless there's truly something outrageous happening--including Sussman's tax returns being similar to Romney's. The defense could be that he was taking advantage of a flaw in the law and would be happy to see it changed.

                  •  What I Consider Most Dangerous..... (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    ChadmanFL, bumiputera, gabjoh, Daman09

                    ....is for this "center-left independent candidate" cancer to spread.  Republicans have been winning elections they otherwise shouldn't in Minnesota for 15 years now because of that state's Independence Party and now the same thing is happening in Maine.  In many ways, a King victory would be more deadly to the Democratic Party's future than a hypothetical Paul LePage victory to the same seat.

                    •  Eh, I don't think so (4+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      KingofSpades, itskevin, gabjoh, jncca

                      That certainly wasn't true of Sen. Lieberman's election in Connecticut. It wasn't true when King was first elected governor. I think it's really a New England thing, with some reflection in a couple of other states like Minnesota.

                      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:18:01 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Rhode Island and Connecticut Are One Thing.... (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        gabjoh

                        ....but as Paul LePage is proving every day, Maine is still another.  And Maine is well to the left of the nation at-large.  If King goes national and gives voice to the "sensible center", I could easily see it spawning more third-party gadflies in this political environment....and in states where the left and center-left have no chance of winning if their vote is split.

                    •  How do you figure? (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      gabjoh

                      You don't think it sets up Cutler in 2014 as governor or Pingree to go after Collins also.  The meat of the independent party in Maine is Cutler and King.

                      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                      by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:20:54 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I Can Think of Eight Races In Minnesota..... (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        gabjoh, Daman09

                        ....where the equivalent of Angus King has gotten Republicans ranging from Mary Kiffmeyer (twice!) to Tim Pawlenty to Michele Bachmann elected.  It's not the future of the state government in Maine I'm concerned about.  It's the future of the Democratic Party nationally having to beat both the Republican candidate and Anywhere USA's version of Angus King to win.  If King gets a national platform, the likelihood of this "center-left independent party" contagion spreading increases dramatically.....and there won't be enough graveyards in America to house the carcasses of Democratic politicians.

                        •  If Rep. Pingree stays out... (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          gabjoh, R30A

                          Why would King feel the need to draw a bright line between himself and the Democratic Party, of which he is a supporter in all but name?

                          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                          by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:32:45 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  I Don't Know The Man..... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            gabjoh

                            ....but if he sees himself as a crusader for the "sensible center" and regularly plants his mug on Sunday morning shows to talk about how outrageous and extreme both parties are, he could be far more trouble than Bob Kerrey ever was or will be.  And the fact that he's running for this seat, right after Olympia Snowe retired because of excessive partisanship, tells me that "giving voice to people who don't feel at home in either party" is an agenda he plans to pursue.

                          •  At the end of the day (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            SaoMagnifico

                            He'll have to vote, and the votes are still very partisan.  There's no way he can be centrist in his voting as it's just not feasible these days.  His talking the centirst talk ensures his own job security, but his votes are likely to be leftist, not centrist.

                            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                            by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:44:30 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  That doesn't seem to be his M.O. (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Inkpen, gabjoh, jncca

                            Even after the Democrats got spanked in 2010, he wrote up a blog post, which I've linked here, basically saying, "President Obama did a lot of good things and Democrats accomplished a lot, and they only lost because they let Republicans mischaracterize them and lie about their achievements." His independence allows him to have a bipartisan appeal and freely criticize the Democratic leadership for strategic mistakes, but he's supported the progressive agenda and left-wing candidates for years.

                            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:45:59 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  But what about the 2010 Gov race? (0+ / 0-)

                          The Indie there was an ex-Republican who got the backing of former R Governor Arne Carlson.

                          Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

                          by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:36:09 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Correct.....And The Story Almost Had The Same..... (0+ / 0-)

                            ....unhappy ending as the 14% that went for the Independence Party was a hair's breadth away from handing Tom Emmer the Governorship.  Few considered Emmer to have a ceiling above 40%, but he managed 43% and it's less than one percentage vote away from being enough.  Perhaps the 2010 gubernatorial elections was the pivot point from which Minnesota surrendered to Maine the honor of having independent candidates throw elections to Republicans.

                        •  We're talking Maine (0+ / 0-)

                          The Independent party wasn't even that relevant in the GOP taking over the Maine Senate in 2010, it's hard to see their brand being the result of GOP control.

                          http://ballotpedia.org/...

                          http://ballotpedia.org/...

                          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                          by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:38:56 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                      •  I can easily see... (0+ / 0-)

                        Cutler running again for governor and Rep. Pingree running for Senate in 2014.

                        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:31:04 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  me too <n/t> (0+ / 0-)

                          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                          by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:35:50 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

              •  Question (9+ / 0-)

                Is your crystal ball available on Amazon Prime? I hate shipping charges.

                Political Director, Daily Kos

                by David Nir on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:05:37 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Is this for sure? (0+ / 0-)

                I realize the limitations of stuff like this, but I am curious, how much of each vote do you seem him winning? Imagine the D/R/I split is 37/33/40.

                And this, by the way, is open to everyone.

                I've done this a few times, but based on how popular everyone here says he is, I'd guess that he'd get, at minimum, 50 percent of the Independent vote, 30 percent of the Democratic vote, and 15 percent of the Republican vote. If that's the case, then he would get 36.05 percent of the vote. But to be honest, he'd need to get around 40 percent, at least, to be a clear favorite, assuming it's not more of a two-person race. If he were to get 55 percent of the Independent vote, 40 percent of the Democratic vote, and 20 percent of the Republican vote, he'd have 43.4 percent overall--almost certainly good enough for a win.

                The thing is, at what point does his support max out? Obviously, winning 50 percent makes him a clear winner, and even slightly lower than that should do the trick, but can he get that high? I don't think we are looking at a situation similar to Colorado in 2010, where the Republican party was effectively a third-party; even a flop of a candidate like Libby Mitchell managed to get to 19 percent. And since King's appeal to Democrats is probably going to be more on the social side rather than on the economic side, it makes you wonder what his ceiling is with registered Democrats. No doubt he will get a good chunk of them, but how many?

                In other words, it seems plausible that he could dominate with Independents, still get a good chunk of Democrats and a slightly lower chunk of Republicans, and then still lose. For instance, let's say King's split was 20/15/55. He'd only get 34.35 percent. If our candidate managed a split of 75/5/25, we'd get 34.40 percent. That's a very slight win, and of course, you can easily adjust the numbers to let King win in this example.

                Were he to win a big(ger) chunk of Republicans, he'd win easily. But does his appeal cut across all lines equally? I think it's important to be specific here, because while he'd probably get more support than a regular Independent candidate, it's not clear how much more. If he's winning at least 30 percent of Republicans, he's almost certainly going to win. But will he? At some point, his appeal has to fall more one way of the other, unless his name is so golden that all he has to do is smile and wave, and unless there are far more moderate Republicans in Maine than I think, I wonder what the trade off is. If he's getting 30 percent of the Republican vote, is he getting any more than 20 percent of the Democratic vote? Are left-leaning Independents going to like him as much? If King's split is more like 15/30/45, he'd get 33.45 overall, very similar to what he received in my previous examples. If our candidate were to see a split of 80/5/30, he or she would get 43.25.

                Or, perhaps more believably, King's split would be 15/25/60--as in, him dominating with Independents--and he'd get 37.80 percent. Our candidate could still see a split of 80/5/20--in what I would characterize as kind of shitting the bed with Independents--and still win with 39.25 percent.

                Do we have any reliable exit polls from the past for King? It wouldn't surprise me if he's very successful with all groups in a very strong way, but I'd like to have some idea where he landed in the past before freaking out.

            •  That is the article that started the speculation (0+ / 0-)

              but the King camp hasn't confirmed it.

            •  Thanks God! (0+ / 0-)

              King is a "800 pound gorilla" in this race. He has wide popularity in state. And he is my favorite politician (by a mile) in this state too, so i will root for him......

              smoltchanov on RRH, and, formerly, SSP

              by smm57nym26 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:44:55 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Stephen King (0+ / 0-)

      Is a current member of the StephenCLE celebrity senate.  It'd be cool to see if he goes for the real thing...although his presence is certainly not necessary with Pingree and Baldacci already in the race.

  •  I agree. (6+ / 0-)

    This does appear to be a comprehensive list of Santorum's various paths to the nomination.

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:21:27 AM PST

  •  Delaney is a snake... (0+ / 0-)

    probably voted GOP in 2010 so he could run for the seat himself.  

    •  He couldn't have done that (3+ / 0-)

      since his residence, in Potomac, has been in the 8th district for 20 years.

      Even if we accept at face value that he'll be a faithful Democratic vote, though, I'm not seeing what he really brings to the table except a big bank account in contrast to Rob Garagiola's record of votes and legislation.  

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:37:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I has a Sad. (5+ / 0-)

    Can't believe it'll all be over tomorrow night -- and via steady attrition, not any blowaway victories.

  •  Do Romney's favorables recover? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Setsuna Mudo, itskevin

    He's at 29-44 favorability in the latest NBC/WSJ, and has had underwater favorables in other polls.

    Andrew Sullivan had a good post on this sometime back, showing other nominees and the change in their favorables over the course of the campaign.

    As you can see, there isnt much net positive change for any candidate. This makes sense to me; as the campaign goes and people get to know a candidate more, their favorability increases, but so does unfavorability. Romney would have to really buck the trend here to get into positive favorability.

    •  Oh they'll get better (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      If 29-44 is the starting point.  Will they get to positive, I doubt it.  

      But its 2012, we'll see a lot of candidates in different races running with underwater figures.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:57:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bill Clinton really Really REALLY (18+ / 0-)

    needs to stop the "Thanks for Endorsing My Wife in 2008" Tour. He should have at least one more criterion for endorsing than that. Like doesn't support Republicans.

    24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:53:39 AM PST

    •  He also endorsed Marty Chavez in NM (5+ / 0-)

      at the same time, also a sort of thank-you note for a candidate who supported Hillary in 2008 and who doesn't seem popular at this site.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:31:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  but Marty Chavez is, from what I can tell, (0+ / 0-)

        more like Evan Bayh.  Kinda douchey, definitely not liberal, etc.

        I can tolerate supporting someone like that, although doing it in a seat like NM-1 is entirely unneccessary.

        But someone who donated to ANDY HARRIS.  That's inexcusable.

        19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

        by jncca on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:40:18 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Chavez is just as bad really (0+ / 0-)

          Not only is he a conservative douche, but he is also nearly unelectable I think. Clinton is backing a candidate who is least electable and most conservative.

          "Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive." -Vice President Joe Biden

          by drhoosierdem on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 04:45:06 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  why is Chavez so unelectable? (0+ / 0-)

            19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

            by jncca on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:52:50 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  He is insanely unpopular (0+ / 0-)

              He lost several races, would have lost the 2008 Senate race had he stayed in. His last tenure as Mayor was very controversial and he lost re-election badly in a blue city. Plus the guy is a uninspiring douche.

              "Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive." -Vice President Joe Biden

              by drhoosierdem on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:08:39 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Report: King to run (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Setsuna Mudo, supercereal

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

    by Paleo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:58:55 AM PST

  •  Does anyone know where I can find (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, James Allen

    detailed Congressional maps fromt the 1990s? Or at least detailed enough to draw up in DRA?

    -8.88, -4.21 Why does the most beautiful place in the world (Idaho Panhandle) have to get dumped with thousands of Cali GOP doofuses?

    by Whitty on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:09:47 AM PST

  •  Female USAF pilots (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, gabjoh

    I wouldn't say that female Air Force pilots are that uncommon.  I believe that they opened up non-combat pilot billets to women in the late 70s (think C-130s and such).

    •  Training opened up to women in 1976 n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike
    •  Pretty uncommon (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      MSNBC:

      How competitive is it to get into the cockpit of one of these planes? Just consider the statistics. There are more than 14,000 pilots in the U.S. Air Force — about 3,700 of those fighter jocks. But in that group, only 70 are women. About 100 or so people apply every year for just three slots.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:40:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Right, female fighter pilots are uncommon (0+ / 0-)

        but Wendy Rogers wasn't a fighter pilot.  Her campaign biography states that she was in the first group of female pilots trained (in 1976) and that she flew C-141s (a strategic airlifter) and C-21s (the military version of a Learjet).  http://www.wendyrogers.org/...

        So, basically, when she started in the Air Force, female pilots of any type were extremely rare (considering that she was one of the first).  But nowadays, female pilots (at least in cargo and other non-combat platforms) are relatively common ... or at least not ridiculously uncommon.  

        Sorry to quibble, just wanted to clarify these points.  

        •  Dunno what to tell you (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          This site says that women comprise only 4% of all Air Force pilots. Assuming that's accurate, that's not "relatively common" in my book. And two running for Congress in the same year in the same state? Definitely unusual. (In fact, McSally was a combat pilot - the first woman to do so. Too bad she's not a Dem!)

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:33:57 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Fair enough, that is a bit unusual (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack

            (though that website looks like it hasn't been updated in a few years, so I would expect that those numbers are slightly higher now).  

            I guess the larger point I wanted to make is that we should expect to see more and more female veterans running for office in the next few years, which I think is a great trend (even though the two candidates in this case are both Republicans).  

            As the years go by, this will be less and less of a rarity.  But yes, I will cede you the point that two female Air Force pilots running for Congress in the same year in the same state is pretty unusual for 2012.  

  •  Political conversion (20+ / 0-)

    I just had a good chat with one of my old college buddies. He was conservative Republican who supported McCain in 2008 and Prop 8 at the time. He slowly began drifting, telling me he's more libertarian when it comes to social issues and regrets voting for Prop 8.

    He now tells me that he's had about just enough of the crazies taking over the GOP and he's now come full circle. He now plans to volunteer for the Obama campaigns :)
    Glad he's now seen the light. He used to work for Congressman Lungren and now he is cheering on Ami Bera

    So that's a total of 3 friends that I know that have switched to team blue in CA.

    23, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-01(former) CA-41(current)

    by lordpet8 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:24:04 AM PST

  •  Goddammit, President Clinton (6+ / 0-)

    You know what? Fine. Go ahead and give Delaney enough of a push to split the establishment vote with Garagiola. Maybe then Pooran can consolidate the progressive vote and we'll get a loyal, uncorrupt Democrat as our nominee in a district we need to win for a House majority.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:32:01 AM PST

    •  Is Garagiola corrupt? nt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:01:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's done some things... (0+ / 0-)

        That give me pause. Didn't report lobbying income on state ethics forms, most notably. I'm at the point where if I lived in MD-06, which is just about 15-20 miles from where I am right now, I'd probably vote for Pooran.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:12:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's not like the lobbying was a secret (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          And the ethics forms were somewhat unclear about what needed to be disclosed and were later revised. Look, obviously not a great thing, but this can't hold a candle to the Andy Harris donation.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:42:18 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh no, certainly not (0+ / 0-)

            Still, I like Pooran and I hope he does well. He's also a Frederick County Democrat, which endears him to me all the more.

            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:56:51 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Of course not (0+ / 0-)

            the question is, is Pooran actually becoming a viable third choice here? If so, progressives in this district need to think about whether to vote for him or Garagiola.

            21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:57:52 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's entirely unclear (0+ / 0-)

              His fundraising is competitive, though (over $100,000), and Garagiola and Delaney have just been nuking each other. I'd really like to see a poll here, but my guess is the race stands at about Garagiola 32, Delaney 20, Pooran 20, with the rest undecided.

              If Pooran can win the minority vote in Montgomery County and also carry Frederick County in the primary, I think that puts him in a strong position. Hopefully he makes a radio buy soon.

              Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:03:42 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I know it's not impossible (0+ / 0-)

                but it's just hard for me to imagine the State Senate Majority Leader losing a district that was drawn for him. You have to really suck to do that. Especially since he's not ignoring the non-Montgomery parts.

                If I had to pull a prediction out of my ass (for today, not a month from now), I'd go with

                Garagiola 38
                Delaney 30
                Pooran 28
                Bailey 4

                21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:11:03 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  Or to some of Delaney's business practices (0+ / 0-)

            Which earned him the title of "Loan Shark" in a 2006 article in Forbes magazine, which was the basis of a Garagiola mailing I got last Saturday.

            36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:05:28 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  I'm hearing Delaney radio ads all the time (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, itskevin, lordpet8, gabjoh

      They're on WTOP, which I listen to on my commutes for traffic and weather reports.  He's had former Montgomery County Exec Doug Duncan and Dee Dee Meyers both narrate endorsements in ads.

      The info I learn here suggests Garagiola is on top anyway.  I hope so.

      I have no ground-level info because I'm in Fairfax County on the Virginia side, I have no info on Maryland.  I'll see if I can learn anything from my friend Kumar Barve, the Maryland House Majority Leader, but that might take awhile.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:41:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  WA-06: Kilmer makes it official (11+ / 0-)

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    He seems really smart AND he holds the most GOP-friendly seat of any Democratic senator.  Guy seems like a rising star to me.

    NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

    by Bobby Big Wheel on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:45:42 AM PST

  •  Its moments like these where I wish Maine and all (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, Mark27, lordpet8, tommypaine

    other states did the top two system like California is now doing.

    •  Why not just have instant runoff voting... (5+ / 0-)

      much more efficient.

    •  Do you want it (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, gabjoh

      Because of the change of outcomes from King winning to Pingree, or are you worried the 3-way race results in the "wrong" (i.e. GOP) winner?

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:08:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I want it because a two way contest ensures (0+ / 0-)

        the winner represents the views of a majority of voters

        •  Then (0+ / 0-)

          You'd probably favor Louisiana over California.  I know I've read the examples where IRv can produce the wrong winner inw acky scenarios, so that's out.  And if a candidate gets 50.1% in a top 2 they could easily lose in a subsequent election.

          In Louisiana I think the top 2 thing only applies (or used to) if no one hits 50%.   Or did they do away with that, I forget?

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:28:12 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  This Is Why Angus King Is So Dangerous..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      .....the "center-left independent" movement needs no more success stories.  The more it gets, the more Paul LePages we have representing indigo blue states.

      •  independents seems to unpredictable in my opinion (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mark27, WisJohn

        I dont think there is any guarantee of Angus getting elected and if he does, I dont think there is any guarantee that he votes with the democrats when needed. A person who campaigns as an independent is entitled to do what they want  and its a road I really do not like going down. Unfortunately Maine is obsessed with going down this road.  

        •  They Got Paul Le Page For It.... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisJohn, ChadmanFL

          .....and still didn't learn.  Nor has my home state of Minnesota, where the left and center-left, together about 60% of the vote, have been split and forfeiting elections to Republicans for nigh on 15 years.

          •  What pisses me off is that people didnt learn a (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, gabjoh

            lesson from the Coleman/Franken nightmare. That whole long ordeal could have and most likely would have been avoided had people just focused more on the top two candidates. I understand the voter has a right to do what he or she wants but was it really worth months and months and months of not having a senator????

          •  They got Angus King (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico

            And they loved him, and seemingly still do.  Paul Lepage won because of a Republican wave just as much as the split between Indies/Dems.

            The 2nd indie candidate taking 5% of the vote is often glossed over.  

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:53:32 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  The Democrat was the spoiler in that race (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, WisJohn, OGGoldy, AUBoy2007, R30A

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

        by Paleo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:45:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm really glad to be in the only state on the (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, supercereal

      west coast that doesn't have top two.  It's a dumb system.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:07:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's drastically better than the one most states (0+ / 0-)

        For a country where people babble about "majority rule", we sure don't follow the principal much... in the Senate, in Prez elections, in plurality wins contests in most states.

        I'm glad to be in a state where whoever is elected is actually elected my a majority of the voters.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:28:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  then do a run-off election like (0+ / 0-)

          in Louisiana.

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:42:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Why? (0+ / 0-)

            We have a top two runoff, on general election day.

            I can't imagine why anyone would think having a runoff the Georgia Senate one in 2008 after the general election is good in any way... and especially it is not good for Dems.

            We have a primary, then we have general with the top two vote getters.  It's the easiest to understand way to do things.  IRV may be better, but most people dislike it, so it isn't an option.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:53:56 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Seriously, fuck top-two. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              supercereal

              You'll never convince me.  I appreciate the place of political parties in our system and think they should be able to decide who their nominee will be.

              I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

              by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:02:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  you really think plurality is better? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Daman09

        top two is dumb, but it's an upgrade over what the rest of the country uses.

        19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

        by jncca on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:45:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  As I responded to tommy, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          supercereal

          just do a run-off.  I think parties should be able to choose their own nominees.

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:50:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  But we do a runoff (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bfen

            I don't understand why you aren't seeing that, and parties can choose their own nominees.  (In CA, Dems set a nominee support threshold, but that was 100% up to the Dems.)

            Apparently you think a state should run a party primary, then a all candidates middle race, then a runoff.

            That is a pointless waste of money.  The state doesn't need to be involved in party activities, and really shouldn't be.

            Top two is better for everybody, except asshole sore loser candidates.  Everyone gets to register their choice for whoever they want, including the 1/3 of the people who don't want to identify with any party, and then we have a runoff among the top two vote getters, so that the majority chooses the winner, even if for some voters it is choosing between the lesser of two evils to get a majority choice.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:15:45 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  So (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, lordpet8, gabjoh

    someone else said King had 60% approval when he left office.  But that was a while ago.  Does anyone know how popular he is NOW in Maine, and what his chances of winning are if, say, Pingree decides not to run?

    Additionally, to those saying he wouldn't caucus with the Republicans, I take it this means he's relatively progressive, and could be considered a reliable vote with Dems on a lot of issues?

  •  In other news on this annoying case of the mondays (6+ / 0-)

    Yes, it really was sooooooooooo necessary for Alan Grayson to win the DFA Grassroots allstars contest.  

    “I have no Democratic opponent. It seems like it would be a suicide mission for a Democrat to run against me in a primary,” Grayson said. “And there are 70,000 more Democrats in my district than Republicans.”

    http://www.politico.com/...

  •  So I drew an 8-0 Maryland map (6+ / 0-)

    where every single district is at least 60% Obama and both VRA districts are maintained.  I'll post it once photobucket decides to stop being a dick and reset my monthly bandwidth limit this week.

    The only incumbents who really wouldn't like it are Sarbanes and Ruppersberger, but they each have their own district to run in and I don't think either would automatically lose the primary.

  •  Lol the Hill posted their senate race ratings (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    http://thehill.com/...

    Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are lean Dem? I think not.  The toss up and R categories are fairly reasonable, but please, PA, WV, and MN are 100% safe, as is Hawaii.

    •  Hey mang, I'm okay with this. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      I'd much rather have someone say "Democrats are favored to retain control" with a handful of legitimate toss-ups, even if it means a few janky ratings on the left/right columns.

      There are too many pundits who, along with spinning Obama's head-to-head matchups as problematic (when he's leading by 5+ points each time), insist that Republicans are favored to win the Senate. I remember Larry Sabato saying Democrats' high water mark is only 51 seats, when there are plenty of situations where they could get to 55-56.

      So it's refreshing seeing something like this. I hope Nate gets an analysis out, he seemed to be pretty bullish on Dems' chances last he talked about it.

    •  And here are their House ratings (0+ / 0-)

      http://thehill.com/...

      Six seats are considered favored to switch from D to R, and five from R to D, mostly due to redistricting and/or retirements.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:10:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  They think 10-14 seat gains (0+ / 0-)

        I'm thinking that's a bit low.  Looking at the races state by state, considering the generic ballot, Obama's strength, etc. I'm coming up with around 15-20 seat net gains in the House, leaving Dems just a little short of a majority.  Hopefully things keep moving in our favor and the courts intervene in the Florida redistricting case.

    •  Recent polling makes Wisconsin Lean D (0+ / 0-)

      but I agree that Pennsylvania should be considered safe D as indicated by polling.

  •  People shouldn't jump to conclusions re: ME-Sen (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dsh17, gabjoh

    What some on this thread are predicting is quite possible - King runs and wins and Pingree herself might well stay out of the race.

    That said, I think it's too early to jump to conclusions. Yes, Maine is a very independent-friendly state and yes, King remains quite popular. But the dynamics of Senate races, especially in presidential years, are often quite different from gubernatorial races. Plenty of popular governors fall short in Senate bids, and three-way races can be especially unpredictable. Just look at FL-Sen in 2010 for an example - Crist remained broadly popular, with approvals above 50%, yet he came in a distant second in the Senate race with the Republican still winning.

    If Pingree were to run - and again, she very well may not - it's not crazy to imagine her winning a plurality, especially in a presidential year. A good example would be the '92 presidential race in Maine, which broke down to Clinton/Perot/Bush 38/30/30.

    Let's all just wait and see. King should announce tonight (and the anonymous reports could be wrong), PPP will release their poll results tomorrow, and Pingree should make clear in the next few days whether she'll run or not.

  •  Ugh, I am going to have to take a break from (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, ChadmanFL, James Allen, gabjoh

    here. I can't stand reading all these comments about how the Dem candidate and a woman needs to get out of the way because there is an independent man running.  

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:27:19 AM PST

    •  The woman aspect has nothing to do with it (15+ / 0-)

      Please don't frame it that way.  

      No one is suggesting a woman needs to get out of the way for a man, not one single person.  Not even remotely is that suggested.  Not even implied.  Can't even be reasonably inferred.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:33:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Clearly it's a man-woman thing :\ (8+ / 0-)

      I'm as dissapointed by this news as anyone and I hope Chellie Pingree does stay in as I think she can win and I think she'll be to the left of King (and not incidentely increasing the representation of women in the Senate is an important goal that we shouldn't forget).

      All that being said... It's pretty absurd and insutling to imply that commenters in this thread that think this bodes ill for Pingree develop this belief out of some sort of regressive misogyny. Although I don't agree with the sentiment, and I think she should fight this out becasue I think she can win and I bet the Republican will be marginalized, I can at least acknowledge that the other side has a reasonable argument (that a divided field on the left could lead to Republican victory) and refrain from making absurd insulting accusations about their motivations.  

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:37:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  PPP agrees with you. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL, supercereal, gabjoh

        Stay in the race Chellie!

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:53:24 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Considering her statements about the (0+ / 0-)

          race and her support in Maine and outside Maine, I think she'll run. Someone said, MoveOn raised $200,000 for a potential Senate bid.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:01:09 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  disagree (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AUBoy2007, DCCyclone

        If King insists on running, I think it would be better for Pingree not to run. Maine is a cheap state to run ads in and I think a decently funded, non-toxic Republican can easily get to 35%. It likely will not take much more than that to squeak out a win if King and Pingree are splitting the center-left vote.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:13:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I prefer Pingree, but... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SLDemocrat

          ...I want someone caucusing with us to win the seat.

          But I want a public pledge to caucus with us.

          Not my call, of course, I'm not a Maine voter, but as a Democrat trying to decide who to root for, an indy comes with strings.

          I can picture where some people here thinking they're being pragmatic want King because he'll win anyway or else the Republican will...then King wins...then King proceeds to stick a needle in our eyes on a regular basis because he is, after all, an independent for a reason.

          And then what will you all say?

          At the least, King needs to make some pledges in private to state and national Dems, even if we don't know about them, as a condition of slacking off against him.

          Now, maybe the polling will end up such that King can win anyway, maybe his support is that strong.  But I suspect PPP is not going to say anything like that tomorrow.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:25:53 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  sex doesn't matter (6+ / 0-)

      At all. It is all about making sure that this is not a Republican hold. Whomever has the best shot at prying this seat from Team Red should recieve our support, 100% independently of which sex organs they possess.

    •  You were beating this drum when Michaud... (7+ / 0-)

      had the temerity to consider run himself.  

      Would you vote Linda McMahon over Chris Murphy in CT Sen race or complain about Murphy not getting out of the way of Susan Bysiewicz? Heather Wilson over Martin Heinrich?

      You know Murkowski, Collins, Ayotte, KBH all voted for the Blunt Amendment and all but three Dem men did not?

      Baldwin, Warren, Berkley, Heitkamp, Hirono are all Dem Senate Candidates running alongside Feinstein, Cantwell, Stabenaw, Gillibrand, Klobuchar and McCaskill this cycle.  

    •  I'm disappointed, to say the least... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rdw72777, ChadmanFL, tommypaine, AUBoy2007

      That you seem to chalk up my bullishness on King to misogyny.

      I've been hoping (and expecting, actually) King would decide against a bid, because I think Rep. Pingree would stomp any Republican one-on-one, and I'd love to see her in the Senate. As I said upthread, she's a progressive woman, which is great, and I think she'd be a great senator just as she is a great congresswoman. But King getting in just changes the calculus, and I am now leaning toward a preference for Pingree holding her fire and running in 2014 instead.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:50:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  What about the PPP tweet. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, DCCyclone

        Everyone seems to be ignoring that and making assumptions. We have no polling data.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:54:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Because Twitter is stupid (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          OGGoldy

          there, I said it.  :-)

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:09:48 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  And you seem to be clinging to that one tweet, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          OGGoldy

          and making assumptions. It's one poll, and the election is 7 months away.

          24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:23:59 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's one poll that possibly goes (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, ChadmanFL

            against the narrative that some are trying to form here.

            20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:24:55 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm not saying the poll is wrong (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh

              A poll we haven't even seen yet, by the way. But that tweet  also suggested that a three-way races was close, and King's been out of the public eye for 9 years. So you're making just as many assumptions as the others are.

              I'm of the opinion that if both Pingree and King get in the race, one will win. The Republican will almost certainly not. And both a Senator Pingree or Senator King would be perfectly fine by me.

              24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

              by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:31:51 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  c'mon, askew (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      stick around.  I'd miss you.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:26:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  yup (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rdw72777, HoosierD42

      I hate Democratic women; that's why a woman is one of my favorite senators.

      Taking a break to clear your head can be healthy, but please don't accuse commenters here of wanting Pingree to leave due to her sex.

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

      by jncca on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:49:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Does anyone think that if Special K loses to Marcy (0+ / 0-)

    Kaptur, that he will run as an indy against her in the general?

    Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, One in ONE MILLION that recalled Scott Walker!!!!

    by WisJohn on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:03:12 AM PST

  •  NJ legislature (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, gabjoh

    Democrat Gabby Mosquera seated to the vacant LD-04 seat, bringing Dems up to a 48-32 advantage in the Assembly. http://www.politickernj.com/...

    I can't find her position on gay marriage, but she's progressive overall and it's hard to imagine her not supporting it. We've got a tough road to hoe for a veto override, but this moves us one step closer.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:03:38 AM PST

  •  Uh (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, tietack, ChadmanFL, lordpet8, gabjoh, Taget

    I just got a warning accusing me of doing something I'm positive I didn't do and wouldn't do, and now my rating privileges are gone. Does anyone know how I can contact the admins? Should I just message David Nir?

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:04:43 AM PST

  •  If King does run, I wonder how or if (0+ / 0-)

    he contrasts himself with Pingree. I wonder if there is any major issue where they disagree.

    •  He doesn't (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      Pingree runs as a Democratic, King runs as a real independent and runs against the supposed independent image of Snowe.  I doubt they'd go nasty against each other, and would more talk about how their affiliations would help them help Maine.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:21:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  In that case Pingree would have (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32

        the upper hand.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:22:50 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh it all depends (0+ / 0-)

          It could play out well that they want an independent voice who can work with both sides even if that's not the reality.

          Who knows.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:31:49 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Sigh (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, jncca, SLDemocrat, Lidem89

          Rep. Pingree has represented half of the state for three years. King served two terms as the extremely popular governor of the entire state, left office a beloved statesman, and has remained a respected player in Maine's political scene.

          Look, I know you really really want Pingree to be elected to the Senate. But please try to be realistic, here.

          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:10:28 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Democrats are still collecting signatures (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker

    for the Congressional candidates and for Pingree, as of today.

    http://www.keepmecurrent.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:14:20 AM PST

  •  More King: He donated to Obama last year (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, jj32, James Allen, gabjoh, DCCyclone
    Although King was an independent as governor, he has given nearly $3,000 in campaign contributions to Barack Obama, $1,750 in 2008 when Obama first ran and another $1,000 last fall to Obama's reelection campaign, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan campaign finance research organization.
    http://www.pressherald.com/...

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

    by Paleo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:31:35 AM PST

  •  TX-27 Ronnie McDonald seriously...? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, ChadmanFL, jncca

    so his legal first name is Ronald...?

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:33:30 AM PST

    •  Just like (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, trowaman

      Mac on It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia

      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:37:59 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Looking at the Wikipedia article (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        the actor who plays him is dedicated.

        In order to gain the weight, Rob McElhenney worked with a sports nutritionist who specializes in aiding offensive linemen in gaining weight. Rob would eat five meals a day at 1,000 calories per sitting. At first he was only gaining weight in his stomach, and he wanted to accumulate fat in other areas. He started power lifting to create a "big, fat, sleek look, like an albino seal." Rob would never walk anywhere, always take the elevator, and drive as often as possible. He also ate cottage cheese late at night before going to bed because it metabolizes slowly, so he would gain weight as he slept.

        How does homeopathy work? | Rick Santorum | Self-appointed DKE Hudson River Crossings Caucus Chair (NJ-10, mostly)

        by gabjoh on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:37:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I miss Tammy Hall already (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, jncca

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:15:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Can be a dangerous world for Ronald McDonald. (0+ / 0-)

      But seriously in political races you never know.  So it is always good to have a decent candidate contest every seat they can.  Even the tough ones.

    •  His parents must have wanted a girl. (0+ / 0-)

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 03:31:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sabato on King (4+ / 0-)

    From above link:

    Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said that even if King runs for Senate as an independent, he would have to pick a party to caucus with if he wants to be given good committee assignments and have maximum influence in the Senate. Two current independents, Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, both caucus with Democrats.

    If King doesn't pick a party to caucus with, "He'll just give floor speeches and vote on floor bills," Sabato said. "King's views on many issues are much closer to the Democrats, so I would expect him to side with the Dems for organizational purposes if elected."

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

    by Paleo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:34:20 AM PST

    •  If the senate is split 48D-50R-2I (0+ / 0-)

      after 2012 (Leibermann out, Sanders and King = 2I) King would have to caucus with D's or he'd be putting us in the minority wouldn't he?

      •  Yes, that would appear to be so (0+ / 0-)

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

        by Paleo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:13:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obama personally will lean on him (0+ / 0-)

          King has given Obama 4-figure donations both cycles as you dug up Paleo, and hasn't given to any Republican this cycle or in '08, so Obama should have pull with him.

          What's very telling is that King gave Obama money last year when Obama was at his nadir.  So King's support of Obama is the real deal, and Obama can make the sale.

          I do think King will face real pressure to pledge a party caucus during the campaign, and frankly picking the Dems locks him up as a Dem Senator in a safe race.  If and when he makes that pledge, the formal Dem nominee gets squeezed out either by the establishment or by voters.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:15:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't know if he'll commit during the race... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack

            But I imagine his campaign will leak to the press that King prefers the Democratic Party, and just from reading his Bowdoin Daily Sun contributions from the past two years, it's quite apparent that King is nauseated by the Republicans and sympathetic to the Democrats. And yes, I do think President Obama will lean on him heavily, and Rep. Pingree might even condition her decision on whether or not King will promise (publicly or privately) to caucus with the Democrats.

            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:19:32 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sao, I think you're great.... (0+ / 0-)

              your judgments are excellent,  your work top-notch

              but I'm going to partially dissent on this one. If King wins, he's going to be in for at least 6 years. I think he's going to want to be with the majority party for the max amount of time.

              So if I were King, I'd make a judgement on whether (we as) Ds can retain control in '14 -- and if Ds lose the Senate in '14, whether Ds can regain control in  '16.

              In other words, if we lose the Senate this election year, I think King will at least begin by offering to caucus with Rs. (Whether they would accept him, with his current politics, is a separate question.)

              However, as an Indie, in a closely divided Senate, he could very well exact a price from either party, such as a committee chairmanship, like Jeffords did. And that works only if he's with the majority party.

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:08:29 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  That makes a lot of sense. I do wonder, though, if (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico

                it is possible for him to tell only a select few people of his real intention and basically try to keep the Republicans from knowing the truth. Probably not, I guess. I mean, say what you want about Boehner, but they aren't political idiots like that.

                On the other hand, why even think about caucusing with the Republicans if they are going to act in such a way that goes against what he stands for? If it's so hopeless for the Democrats, what does his intention to caucus with the Republicans mean? Why give anything to someone when your party--in this case, the Republican party--isn't going to lose control?

              •  I don't think King offers anything (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                tietack

                I think he plays hard-to-get. And I think he's naturally more sympathetic to the Democrats than he is to the Republicans, considering that aside from Sen. Snowe, the last Republican he gave public support to was George W. Bush back in 2000, when Bush ran as a "compassionate conservative".

                Otherwise, I do agree with you. And if he wants to deliver for his state, that absolutely makes sense for him.

                Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:39:14 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I don't think W is really to the left (0+ / 0-)

                  of the median of the R Senate caucus -- even the W of the 2000 campaign. In addition, I think the Gore of 2000 isn't much different from the average D Senator today.

                  "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                  For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                  by tietack on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:45:12 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Oh, I certainly do think he is (0+ / 0-)

                    He supported comprehensive immigration reform, which the Republicans in Congress sabotaged, and he wasn't shy about deficit spending or new entitlement programs (Medicare Part D). I think he can be considered more conservative on foreign policy, but that could be chalked up to how miserable a failure the wars he started turned out to be, and how big a political loss they amounted to for Republicans.

                    As to Al Gore, I do agree.

                    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:12:46 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Immigration reform was pretty much it (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      jncca

                      And it was Rs in the House who sabotoged it, I think. His deficit spending is in the R mainstream. Medicare part D was IMO an attempt to delay HCR.

                      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                      by tietack on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:44:08 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  yeah (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        SaoMagnifico

                        I like Angus King decently; like Sao I'd have preferred Chellie, and I'm probably in the middle of this group by liking Angus but not as enamored as Sao.

                        Twelve years ago, as a prominent public official, Angus King supported a conservative who identified as a conservative and, while running mostly on platitudes, didn't call himself anything but a conservative.

                        19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

                        by jncca on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:10:58 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

  •  Kucinich may actually be winning... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, Taget

    I talked to someone on the ground in OH-9, and he felt strongly that Kucinich will win.  A quick drive along Cleveland's West Side shows you why it might happen--sign upon sign upon sign upon sign on private yards.  Yes, signs do not vote, but I've never seen this kind of Kucinich support before--at least not since 1998.  Of course, he's never needed it before 1998.

    In a low turnout primary, voter motivation is key, and Kucinich voters seem to be very motivated to go to the polls.  There are no statewide issues on the ballot.  All the other primary slots are gimmes, but a popular county health and human services levy and a very competitive and high profile county prosecutor primary will drive Dems out to vote in Kucinich heavy territory.  Perhaps Dennis has the enthusiasm edge he needs.  I haven't been or talked to anyone in Toledo lately, so it's hard to say where things stand.  I can say that during the 2010 campaign, Kaptur had a large outpouring of support in Toledo.  It was obvious.  It's possible that the voters are sleeping now, though, assuming a Kaptur easy win.

    One thing is for sure, Kaptur does not think that she has it in the bag.  Her earlier ads were much more positive and upbeat with only a gentle nudge towards Dennis.  Now, they've gotten pretty nasty, including a few with right wing talking points.  Dennis' SuperPac ads are quite good--a far cry from his home camcorder ads of years past.  According to people I talk to in the area, the ads  are flying fast and furious--which would be unusual if the race wasn't competitive.

    I told you guys to never count Dennis out.  He might actually win this thing.  I'm guessing that it will be closer than anyone is expecting based on these tea leaves.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:37:55 AM PST

    •  Do you agree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      that the race will be decided in the central part of the district - the former Sutton territory? Or do you think one candidate can narrowly lose that area but pull out such huge margins from their base that they can win?

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:56:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, it comes down to Lorain County... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, Taget

        But, it also depends on home base turnout.  If Toledo slumps while Clevleand surges, then Kucinich can win.  Lorain will be tough for Dennis.  One prognosticator says he needs 60% of the vote there.  That's tough to do, but if he has a turnout advantage, he can maybe split Lorain and still pull it out.

        I don't know... I assumed for so long that Dennis was toast, I haven't really been paying attention too much, but this recent change in campaign tone form Kaptur is very suggestive that the race is tight.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:05:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Arkansas (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen, bfen

    So I've been very suspicious of some of the election results I calculated for the State Senate districts, so I went back and changed the method I was using for calculating split precincts (this new way is more accurate!), and Democrats have improved in both SD-32 and SD-34, which could be competitive races in November.

  •  Ras Mass: Obama 55 Romney 38 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Daman09

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

    by Paleo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:10:19 PM PST

  •  PPP tweets... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, HoosierD42, itskevin

    Angus King favorability is 62/24.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:19:31 PM PST

  •  From the crosstabs that PPP released so far (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, ChadmanFL, rdw72777

    the race is roughly King 36/37, Pingree 29, Summers 27.

  •  If King pledges to caucus with Dems, this race (4+ / 0-)

    might be over.

    PPP indicates, he might have to, 51% want him to caucus with Dems, 25% Republicans.

    He was apparently liberal on social issues, and donated to Obama last year.

    •  So what about economic issues? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      Some might consider those issues less important but I consider beign a liberal on economic issues far more important than social issues.  Especially health care issues.

    •  So in other words (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42, jj32, itskevin, SaoMagnifico

      Rather more like the exact opposite of the disaster some were suggesting.

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:41:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  He;ll have to announce who he'll caucus with (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike

      I wonder how these numbers would change if he says "nobody" and stays a true independent or if he says he'd caucus with Republicans.  

      I mean if he's going to caucus with Dems, why not run as a Dem - because he couldn't win the primary?

      •  He doesn't /have/ to do anything (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, LordMike, SaoMagnifico

        If he's running as an independent, he'll run as an independent, in all senses of the word. Yes, he'll likely caucus with the Democrats. But announcing that will hurt his chances with the moderate Republicans in Maine, to the extent that they still exist.

        Unless there's a situation like in VT-Sen 2006, where no major Democrat enters the race and King can run as the de facto Democrat, I bet he stays mum and plays up the Independent label.

        24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:51:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I dont know if he can stay neutral (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42

          There are a lot more Dems in ME than moderate Republicans, and I think the Ds are going to be curious who he would caucus with.

          •  Ds shouldn't have any question (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32

            It's pretty obvious he won't side with the absurdly partisan Republican Senate Caucus.

            24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:58:49 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  True (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoosierD42

              but if he dodges the question, I think it will just increase the curiosity. I think at some point, he is going to have to flat out say who he is caucusing with, who he is supporting for president, etc.

              That's why I wonder above, what if any major issues, would he really disagree with Pingree/Dems on.

              •  Like I said below. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jj32, SaoMagnifico

                He should only say "I'll be an independent voice for Mainers in the Senate." And knowing what little I know of King, he'll probably mean it. He may vote for Harry Reid as majority leader, but beyond that he'll vote the way he pleases, the same as any other independent-minded Senator.

                24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:10:16 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  He doesn't have to by law... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          But I don't think the electorate will accept a "I'm not telling you because I don't have to" answer either.  When you run as an indie who you're going to caucus with is a common question and deserves an answer.  If he want to play coy with a "I'm going to wait and see" than it would be a pretty big opening for Pingree to pull a lot of Democrats from King that are polling in support of him.

          •  If (when) the question is asked, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, SaoMagnifico

            He'll say "I'm going to be an independent voice for Mainers in the Senate". And that will probably be enough. This is not a parliamentary system where you're voting from a party list. You're not voting for the Republican or Democratic Party. You're voting for Chellie Pingree or Angus King or Charlie Summers.

            24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:06:29 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  We'll see. I don't think that will be enough. (0+ / 0-)

              You can do that as Governor because you're the boss, and really Gov is not really a partisan gig.  In the Senate who you caucus with matters when it comes to committees and more importantly who gets to be the majority.  

              Given King's age, he;s obviously not going to try to build up seniority so committee assignments will not matter much to him.  But who he'd vote for for senate leadership would matter greatly.  

              I can't remember if Charlie Crist said who he'd caucus with in 2010,  I think he tried to hedge.  

              •  He never said which outright (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico

                But it was leaked towards the tail end that he would caucus with the Democrats. But that was a last-ditch effort to try and sink Kendrick Meek, which Crist thought would put him over the edge.

                24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:45:20 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  I'd like to think so. (0+ / 0-)

            After all, it's an entirely reasonably question.

      •  Why run as a Democrat? (0+ / 0-)

        Is there really any benefit to running as a Democrat?  He's won statewide twice, and I think the second time was one of the biggest margins in Maine history.

        Joining a party might actual hurt him, especially if his popularity is viewed in his "independence."

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:54:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I hope Harry Reid (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        is on the phone with him as we speak.

  •  FOX News poll: Obama leads Romney by 2% among (17+ / 0-)

    Latino voters....who voted for McCain in 2008.

    link

    •  Ha! (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, bumiputera, redrelic17, Daman09

      Good news for . . . . . . Marco Rubio.

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

      by Paleo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:46:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Latinos approve of Obama 73% (5+ / 0-)

      That's pretty damn impressive.
      http://latino.foxnews.com/...

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:51:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Amazing (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, gabjoh, SaoMagnifico

        In a matter of 2 years the GOP has completely alienated Latino voters with all the fearmongering and demonization on immigration.  The only sub-group of Latino voters they probably still have is Cuban and even that segment is moving left as the older generation gives way to the younger generation who aren't obsessed with Castro.

        •  More or less (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ChadmanFL, gabjoh

          Cubans in Florida are still very Republican, but I can imagine they are less so than they used to be and will continue to drift that way as Castro fades away from some kind of boogeyman.

          There's also Latinos in the TX panhandle that vote somewhat Republican (I think for ancestral reasons).

          If Romney picks Rubio as VP, Rubio will have a careful balancing act.  He can't undercut the top of the ticket on immigration and enforcement, but he also knows that hardlining it is losing Latino voters (He opposed SB1070 until the tea party beat him up over it).

          Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

          by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 03:13:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  SB 1070 is the only thing I can think of that (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, ChadmanFL, LordMike, gabjoh, bfen

            could be uniting Latinos/Hispanics against Republicans so much as they are in all these polls.  It's amazing that the Republicans have been able to so badly damage themselves with the fastest growing demographic in the country without helping themselves all that much among whites.

            I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

            by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 03:19:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  CNN had an article about Cuban voters in late 2008 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico

            It profiled a Cuban family in Florida.  The older folks in the family were firmly in the McCain camp, but the younger guy who had just turned 18 was firmly in the Obama camp, and it detailed how the Cuban vote may now be susceptible to becoming democratic with the cold war being over, and a new generation of Cuban-Americans who don't really find themselves being as republican as there parents were.  I wish I could find the article, but the Google is failing me.  Maybe I should try the Bing...

            Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit!

            by Daman09 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:48:44 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  This is in line with Latino Decisions polling (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        I've always been happy by Latino Decisions results, but also look at them with a wary eye because their numbers seem just a wee bit too good to be true.

        But this poll corroborates them.  If this is how November goes, Republicans are in for a world of hurt.  These are massive supermargins that they cannot overcome in any state with a decent-sized Hispanic electorate.  Basically,  with these numbers the Presidential election is already over.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:49:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Speaking of Romney and Latinos (0+ / 0-)

      how has he been for outreach?  Also, on immigration issues, how is he?

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:53:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  To add, if Obama is re-elected (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, DCCyclone

      I'm hopeful that comprehensive immigration reform can get done, partly for this reason. I think enough Republicans will see that their stance is hurting their party, and at the very least, getting a deal done takes the issue off the table.

      While Obama would get credit, I think the GOP establishment will figure that they can share in the credit if enough GOP lawmakers support it.

      Also, I think Obama will make another big push, realizing he is fortunate to get Hispanic support in his re-election, despite not getting DREAM act and a comprehensive deal in his first term.

      •  And Immigration reform folks better realize... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL

        That if GOP has House and/or Senate majority they'll pull any reforms hard right.  They should be working very hard for the next 8 months to not only see Pres Obama re-elected, but to see Dems win majority in the House and keep it in the Senate.  In Az it means organizing for, volunteering for and voting for Carmona to flip this seat.  It means doing the same for Rep Berkley in NV who is trying to take the Heller/Ensign seat andf voting Heinrich in New Mexico to hold the Bingamin seat.

    •  Even if we acknowledge (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bfen

      that McCain had inflated mountain west numbers, that's pretty bad.

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 03:30:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Really hard to see... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42, itskevin

      How the Republicans even come close to winning in November if that stat holds true.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:19:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Why is Angus King Guaranteed to Win? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    I typed a lot response above that nobody seem to have looked at, which you can see here.

    Now, as everyone has noted, PPP tweeted that King would see a D/R/I split of 35/25/53. It's not clear what partisan numbers they are using, but I've been using one of 37/33/40, which is slightly less favorable to Democrats than that of 2008.

    Under that scenario, King would get 42.40 percent. That's almost certainly good enough for a win. But what if his support drops amongst Republicans, and especially amongst Democrats, even as it increases amongst Independents? If his split is more like 25/15/60, he'd get 38.20 percent overall. If our candidate received a split of 70/5/25, he or she would get 37.5 percent overall. That's still a loss, but you could make up a plausible scenario where King's Democratic support drops to 20 percent and/or the number of Democrats increases overall, nudging our candidate ahead.

  •  This is the same argument I've made (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, itskevin

    About Bush job approval during 2004. The alternative made him look better.

    http://www.people-press.org/...

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:58:46 PM PST

  •  Oregon stuff (7+ / 0-)

    As Kari Chisolm notes at BlueOregon, the Republicans still don't have candidates for State Treasurer or AG, while the filing deadline is tomorrow.  Recall that the Republicans also didn't have a candidate for AG in 2008, and Democrat John Kroger won the R nomination on write-in.

    Last I checked, Democrats also didn't have a nominee in HD-49, which is the most Democratic state house district held by a Republican (D+7).  Ugh.

    In interesting news, there doesn't seem to be much talk anymore about Kitzhaber only serving one term.  He's seen by other Democrats as doing relatively well, he's had a positive approval rating in every poll I've seen and is probably the second or third most popular Democratic governor in the country.  If he does run for re-election, there shouldn't be a serious primary (unlike when Kulongoski ran for re-elect and was abandoned by the public employee unions) and he should roll over any Republican nominee.

    Finally, my dad resigned his position on the Port of Portland Commission, since he's been appointed to health care-related committees by Kitzhaber.  But before leaving, he learned that Portland has begun shipping American made Fords to Korea.  I'm guessing as a result of the Korea FTA.  America is coming back!

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:59:12 PM PST

  •  PA-12 (4+ / 0-)

    Altmire survives ballot challenge.  Given that it was based on credibility assessment and balancing of facts as to staffer's true residence, unclear if there's much grounds to appeal.

    •  An appeal would look bad for Critz (0+ / 0-)

      Though in a way he's accomplished something by making Altmire look like a bit of an amateur in running a campaign by letting it get this close.

      Critz doesn't want to look like he's running scared of Altmire and i think pressing this forward would look bad.  then again, what do I know.  Maybe he feels this doesn't hurt him.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:16:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-02: Stacey Lawson up with first Ad on radio. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:04:19 PM PST

  •  WA-03 goes from Even to R+1 (6+ / 0-)

    Not as much a change as we initially thought.

    Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:07:29 PM PST

  •  IL-03 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, JGibson

    Profile of Farah Baqai, Dan Lipinski's progressive-seeming but probably hopeless primary challenger: http://oaklawn.patch.com/...

    Meanwhile, Republican Jim Falvey scoops up more endorsements in his quest to find himself on the underside of Lipinski's shoe in November: http://oaklawn.patch.com/...

    Falvey faces Richard Grabowski and Neo-Nazi (not an exaggeration) Art Jones in his laughable, pathetic, almost kind of sad suicide mission.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:16:53 PM PST

  •  Prom king and courts (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, Daman09

    Yes David, you are correct, ehow.com's "How to be prom King" article has nothing about an appeals process.

    http://www.ehow.com/...

    Somwhere, someone wrote that article, when their time could have been spent debating the validity of admission and yield statistics between Bates and Bowdoin.

    So sad.

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:25:44 PM PST

  •  Geez, Critz sounds incredibly weaksauce (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    "we're currently exploring our legal options, because if it comes down to an actual campaign, we're screwed!"

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:28:51 PM PST

    •  I think that's gotta be his worry (0+ / 0-)

      But if he has the money to run ads, campaign and file a legal challenge I guess maybe there's no harm.  But if I'm Altmire I'm pushing for debates (plural) and bring up the challenge of a weak, whiny Critz every chance I can get.  

      I can't imagine Critz's home turf is all that fond of lawyers and legalese ruling their choices (and newspaper stories).

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:34:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  But Altmire could have avoided all this (0+ / 0-)

        He was the favorite coming in ... why didn't he just get two or three times the signatures he needed as a show of force?  It seems his organization isn't nearly as strong as one might think for a third-term Congressman.  

        This seat is up-for-grabs in the fall too ... Dems need to really look at both of these guys and figure out which is the strongest candidate for November.  

    •  I think this is going to backfire and hurt Critz (0+ / 0-)

      and Altmire is going to come out of this smelling like a rose. Things do work out sometimes.

  •  CNN polls: All tied up in OH (4+ / 0-)

    Santorum and Romney at 32%.

    Gingrich way ahead in GA, as expected 47-24 over Romney. Interestingly, among RV, Obama is tied with "generic Republican" 48-48 all in the general, in Georgia. I doubt he wins the state, but it would nice to keep it close.

  •  Notes on Angus King (5+ / 0-)

    First, I believe there was a bit of misunderstanding upthread in regards to how the 2006 Vermont Senate race occured and how that could be applicable today.  It wasn't that the Vermont Democratic Party kept all Democrats out of the race; there were actually three other people who ran in the Democratic primary.  What happened was that Bernie Sanders ran in the Democratic primary, won it, and then declined the nomination to ensure that there wouldn't be any Democrat on the ballot.  That ensured a two-man race between Sanders and Richard Tarrant (I'm glad I researched this for my Senate 2012 analysis lol).  This would be an effective way for Angus King to dominate in November should he be able to keep Rep. Pingree out of the race, making it a two-way race in the fall.

    Also, I've been attempting to analyze King's stances on the issues, and I'm having a little difficulty finding recent stuff.  I know that he's strong on environmental issues and healthcare reform, but beyond these matters I can't find any recent stuff.  The only thing I've found as of yet are on this site, detailing his stances from the late 90s an early 00s (THIS SITE TOOK A LONG TIME TO LOAD ON MY COMPUTER AND MINE IS FAIRLY FAST, SO BE WARNED).  The site uses a scoring system for him on the various issues, and at the very bottom of the page he's pegged exactly at the center point on both political scales, labeled as a "centrist".  I'm still looking into this, but I don't know if labeling him as left-of-center outright is the right way to go.  He may be liberal on social matters, but I'm still figuring him out on economic matters. This was a time period when he endorsed George Bush over Al Gore, so he may have been more conservative at the time.  I'll continue looking into this and get back to you guys when I know more.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-5); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

    by AndySonSon on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:52:31 PM PST

    •  Re: the Vermont Senate race (0+ / 0-)

      I'm sure you know this based on your summary of the events, but I thought I'd point out that what happened in the Vermont Democratic primary was a deal between the VT Dems and Sanders. Sanders was always going to run as an independent (and win) no matter what.

      24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:56:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Just to clarify (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL

        I'm sure you knew that, but your post implied that Sanders ran as a Democrat in the primary of his own volition, which is only a half-truth.

        24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 02:01:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Knew That (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42

          I knew his goal was merely to clear the ballot of any people who could split the liberal vote with him.  I've got it, but thanks for asking anyway. :P

          The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-5); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

          by AndySonSon on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 02:15:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        I know what the plan was.  My note was that Sanders ran in that primary and then struck that deal with the state party to have the Democratic label stricken from the ballot.  I got the vibe upthread that people thought that the Vermont Democratic Party deliberately kept people out of the primary and promised to immediately back the Independent Sanders, which wouldn't necessarily be true.

        The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-5); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

        by AndySonSon on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 02:07:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Right. (0+ / 0-)

          It's more like Connecticut 2006, minus the ugly Dem primary (assuming Pingree enters, which is an open question if King announces)

          24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 02:32:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Bush 2000 was more centrist than (3+ / 0-)

      Bush 2004.  The center also moved quite a bit to the right over that period.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 02:33:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY-14: Saujani looking to run for Public Advocate. (0+ / 0-)

    Even though Carolyn Maloney paisted her Reshema Saujani did raise a ton of money and forced Carolyn Maloney to actually work her win.  Saunjani has hinted that she might want a rematch but is now looking at running for New York City Public Advocate in 2013 instead.

    http://www.politicker.com/...

  •  Does anyone else think this Bob Etheridge video (4+ / 0-)

    reminds them of the movie Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil????

    •  That's surprisingly well made. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SLDemocrat

      I like it's atmospheric qualities though, it lends it charm.

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 03:28:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree its a fantastic web ad (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SLDemocrat

        and Etheridge has been a good candidate which is why I'd think he'd be better for this then Dalton. Other then that incident with the young student, I really have think he's been a good politician. The North Carolina establishment should reconsider who they are backing.

  •  LA-Sen: Landrieu says she's running again (11+ / 0-)

    http://www.nola.com/...

    "I am definitely running for re-election," Landrieu told reporters after a luncheon speech to the  Press Club of Baton Rouge. "My numbers are moving in the right direction."
    What little public polling there is indicates Landrieu can win again.  Her approvals were over 50% in an October poll.  http://www.wwltv.com/...

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college) Currently helping elect great young progressives to the Orleans Parish Democratic Executive Committee! http://www.newleadersofneworleans.com/

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 02:17:24 PM PST

  •  MN St. Rep. deeply insults any who use food stamps (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, ChadmanFL, ehstronghold

    compares them to wild animals.
    http://blogs.citypages.com/...

    Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 03:15:34 PM PST

  •  RTW ban (6+ / 0-)

    Since Indiana passed RTW, there has been talk of MI passing it to "remain competitive."  Unions are now looking to ban RTW this November.  

    A coalition of groups led by the United Auto Workers union is launching a petition drive this week to keep Michigan from following the lead of Indiana and becoming a “right-to-work” state.
    http://detroit.cbslocal.com/...
  •  Peter Chandler (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits

    Michaud's chief-of-staff, has a blog that hasn't been updated since August.  And he's gay/LGBT ("Several weeks ago, I received an email notice that the LGBT Congressional Staff Association was trying to form a team to compete in the Stonewall Kickball League.  'What could be more fun than a gay kickball league on Sunday evenings?'  I thought.")

    That's...all I got.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 04:07:44 PM PST

  •  Love it or hate it, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    at least King kept to his timetable. It seems like lately when politicians lay out time tables they end up 2++ weeks over them. Well, at least we know King is in and do not have to wait forever for him to make up his mind. I do hope Pingree makes up her mind soon.

    "Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive." -Vice President Joe Biden

    by drhoosierdem on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 04:35:49 PM PST

    •  I still hate it.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike
    •  Pingree won't run... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Paleo, LordMike

      And she should tell him he's no longer invited to Thanksgiving dinners.  

      •  I don't know, actually (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        In that DD-linked article, Rep. Pingree said the time might not be right for her daughter to run for ME-01. She just had a baby! Her life may be more settled by, say, 2014. And don't you think the congresswoman wants to pass her seat onto Hannah Pingree?

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:09:48 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  He probably announced early (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      because he needs the sigs as he plans to run as a Dem.

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:05:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  unless he specifically says, I plan to run as (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32

        a dem, or I plan to caucus as a dem, Im really not cool with this. People can do what they want in Maine and Angus may win this easily but I really wasnt pleased with how ambiguous Charlie Crist was. If Angus acts the same way, I will have a low opinion of him as well.

        •  Oh yes. (0+ / 0-)

          I'm royally pissed off right now. If Pingree stays out I would still vote for Dunlap over King.

          (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:12:05 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Why are you so pissed off? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            I'd been hoping King would pass as well, but the man has earned his dues and he's not beholden to anyone. He has every right to run. It's not even like he told another candidate he wouldn't run and then changed his mind like, say, Bob Kerrey or Cal Cunningham. Why the vitriol?

            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:17:47 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Why would I not be? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh

              I'm an unapologetic liberal and King running severely cuts into Pingree's chances and virtually destroys Baldacci's.

              Plus these indies in general, now we're going to have to listen to 7 months of hearing how he's not beholden to special interests! The partisan gridlock is washington is destroying the country! If only we could all just get along! Partisans are the problem! No labels! He's so independent! [swoon] Maybe he can just take a page from Brown's playbook and have his supporters chant "the people's seat1!!!1!" All this bullshit malarkey. Wake me up in december.

              (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

              by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:27:16 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Um... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                gabjoh

                King has been a strong supporter of our president, and he warmly endorsed Rep. Pingree in 2010.

                Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:34:54 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yeah. (0+ / 0-)

                  We still had to put up with it for Cutler. You asked me why I didn't like him, he weakens the more liberal choice, you asked me why I didn't like indies it's the holiday-greeting card worthy malarkey we have to put up with.

                  I don't see how any of that is relevant is what I'm saying, I already said he'll caucus with us. He's already given us the "I'm only beholden to the people of maine" line so there's no reason to think we won't have to put up with that crap anyways, even if he's basically a Dem.

                  (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                  by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:40:49 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  All politicians say that stuff (5+ / 0-)

                    I have never seen a politician win a statewide election by saying, "I will be a reliable vote for the ___ Party!" or, "I will vote with party leadership no matter what!"

                    King is a liberal. Yes, he's probably going to have some annoying appearances on cable news from time to time plying the "why can't we all get along!" spiel, and yes, he's probably going to harrumph about how some "bipartisan" piece of legislation should get more Democratic support even when there's only one Democratic cosponsor and it's someone like Sen. Landrieu or Sen. Baucus. But when push comes to shove, if he's the 50th vote, he'll vote for Sen. Reid as majority leader; if there's a bill up that President Obama wants passed, he'll probably vote for it; if Republicans are being assholes, he'll probably call them on it.

                    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:49:37 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I agree. (0+ / 0-)

                      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

                      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:52:25 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Fair enough. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      bfen

                      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:24:15 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  We'll see... (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      jmartin4s

                      Independents cannot be trusted, whether they are voters or politicians.  They love to be "maverikcy" just to be "mavericky".  It would not surprise me if he caucused with the GOP just to be "independent" or whatnot.

                      BTW, I do not consider Bernie Sanders to be independent, since he considers himself represented by the Socialist party.

                      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                      by LordMike on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 07:01:52 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  He is not going to caucus with the Republicans (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        HoosierD42

                        Come on, I know you are smarter than that, man. You've got to read up on his record (criticized President Reagan on his "small government" philosophy, donated heavily to then-Sen. Obama in 2008 and President Obama last year, ripped Citizens United just earlier today, opposed SB 1070 in Arizona, supported abortion rights as governor, trumpeted the GM rescue as a win for Democrats, etc.) before you assume he'll caucus with the Republicans.

                        He might not caucus with Democrats. But I give him a 0% chance of caucusing with Republicans unless the Maine Democratic Party is absolutely unspeakably horrible to him and the Maine Republican Party effectively endorses him. Which it won't.

                        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 07:07:52 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  exactly, hence why Im taking a wait and see (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        LordMike

                        approach with future senator King.

          •  If I lived in Maine.... (0+ / 0-)

            ... I would probably vote for King regardless who the major parties run. Probably not a popular position here but I have always liked centrist 3rd party types and if they have a shot to win I will vote for them.

        •  I have a low opinion (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, LordMike

          of indies in general, they're a thorn.

          (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:14:26 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Unless they're not (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico

            Mainers, being in love with their "independent voting" label, will flock to King and he will more than likely win (assuming a strong Dem like Pingree passes on the race).

            In general, I agree with you, independent candidates are a thorn in our side. But when they have a better than 50/50 chance to win, which Angus King does, then I have absolutely no problem with them.

            24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:12:10 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm listening to his announcement now... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoosierD42

              And he's making it very clear that he wants to be an independent in the Senate, though he's not making any sort of Shermanesque statement as to whether he will or won't caucus with a party. Video here.

              He does seem to be predicting that both parties will target him in the race, which suggests that if there's a deal to be made with the Maine Democratic Party, it hasn't been made yet.

              Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:58:36 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  If he caucuses with any party (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico

                (and it would be stupid for him not to), I don't see any compelling argument for him to caucus with the Republicans. It's simply unfathomable.

                24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:33:39 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  The only way I can see it... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  HoosierD42

                  Is if the Maine Democratic Party goes nuclear on him in an effort to sponge up soft supporters and destroy his positive image, while the Republicans largely hold their fire, say a few complimentary things, and offer him some nice committee assignments when he gets to Washington.

                  That's why I really think Rep. Pingree shouldn't run and the Maine Democratic Party should be hesitant to fully embrace Baldacci or Dunlap or whoever our nominee here is. Pingree running, and she would want to run competitively, which would necessarily have to involve launching direct attacks against King, would be perceived by the former governor as a personal betrayal. Even if Pingree declines to run but assents to the Democrats going negative on King, he could be put off.

                  A nonaggression pact, reciprocating King's pledge to run a positive campaign, whether explicit or nonverbal, is really our best bet here - and unfortunately, that really does involve conceding the seat when you're running against a guy with high name recognition and a +38 favorability spread. I mean, we can hope the Republicans really lay into him and drag him down in the hopes our candidate squeaks through, but that's pretty much it. And in that scenario, I have to think we'll be running a candidate who is lackluster enough that King will be our best realistic hope at having a senator who will be a Democratic vote, so in that scenario, we might not want to let Atty. Gen. Schneider or Secy. Summers or whoever just savage him.

                  Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:46:22 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  "Would be perceived" should b "could be perceived" (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    HoosierD42

                    I can't read King's mind. I do think he'd be pissed at the Democrats if Rep. Pingree got in and went hard negative on him to try to gain ground.

                    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:47:33 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  See, and I don't think Maine Democrats, or Pingree (0+ / 0-)

                      Would be stupid enough to try and attack King. Because even if they do, he could have a better-than-decent chance to win the election, and then he'd just be soured on partisan politics altogether, and may form his own useless caucus.

                      If the relationship between Pingree and King is as strong as has been suggested, I simply think she doesn't run. As someone else noted in this diary; if she really was running, why wouldn't she have announced immediately after Michaud demurred? There's an agreement happening between the two, I'd bet anything dollars to donuts.

                      24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                      by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:58:48 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

      •  link (0+ / 0-)

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

        by Paleo on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:14:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  If King is unwilling to say who he'll caucus with (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    than Dems need to run a top flight candidate against him.  Period.  

    •  He's going to be a pretty solid Democratic vote... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42

      If his record of actions, statements, and writings is any indication.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:37:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have not seen any evidence on that (0+ / 0-)

        http://ontheissues.org/...

        look at the chart at the bottom of the page, this looks like uncertainty and 50/50 to me. Maybe he'll vote democratic more then 50% of the time, but i see no evidence of him being a solid democratic vote.  

        •  their questionairre that that is based on (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, gabjoh

          has answers for only like 6/17 issues or something like that, so it's not really indicative.  If you read his stances listed there issue by issue, its very hard to get a read on him on federal issues.  Most of them are not terribly ideological positions about Maine's relationship with the federal government.

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:57:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  What about on major issues? (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, HoosierD42, itskevin, Lidem89

          King is pro-choice. He believes in anthropogenic climate change. He's an environmentalist. He supports green energy. He supported the automaker rescue. He criticized conservatives for trying to argue the healthcare system didn't need reform. He condemned racial profiling of and scaremongering against Muslims and immigrants. He opposed SB 1070. He supported the right of developers to build the so-called "Ground Zero Mosque". Story here.

          Underlying this more or less permanent resistance to the full realization of the promise of the American creed is what appears to be the natural human tendency to hate—or at least fear—people who are somehow different, whether by reason of race, creed, national origin, or any other perceived dissimilarity. I suspect it’s a genetic predisposition going back to the days when people from the next valley really were to be feared, and therefore hated. In short, we seem to need enemies, be they foreign or domestic. Sometimes, the fear is not irrational (even paranoids occasionally have real enemies); but often the fear is fanned and exaggerated until it becomes generalized to everyone in the suspect group, even if most of them are just ordinary folks like the rest of us.

          ...

          This past year, for example, we had a foreign exchange student living with us who was a Muslim from Ghana. She vaguely knew about 9/11 but had never heard of al-Qaeda or Osama Bin Laden and was genuinely puzzled as to why a young Muslim would want to do such a thing. She read the Koran and prayed five times each day and was one of the most peaceful souls I’ve ever met. And she absolutely loves America and dearly hopes to return here someday. Why would anyone want to insult and thereby push her toward radicalization?

          You should read the blog posts he's written for the Bangor Daily Sun. It's pretty obvious from them that King is a progressive Democrat in all but name.

          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:58:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Excuse me, the Bowdoin Daily Sun (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoosierD42

            My mistake.

            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:01:08 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Oh, here are a couple of others (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoosierD42, itskevin, gabjoh, tietack

            King rethinking free trade, which some of our more labor-Dem types might like (mum on South Korea and Panama, nay on Colombia; I supported the South Korea FTA, was neutral on Panama, and opposed to Colombia, personally). Story here.

            King on how the unfettered free market is dangerous. Story here.

            I know that governments and unions can sometimes go too far—whether with over-burdensome regulations or outdated work rules or confiscatory taxes—but the solution ought to be to recognize and rein in the excesses, not throw out the whole idea of regulation and collective bargaining as many now seem to be urging. For if we do, if the unions are eviscerated and government is rendered impotent, we will have no defense left; the same unrestrained market forces that put our forebears to work in those mills at age 12 will be fully ascendant, and America will be a very different place than the one we have known for the century just past.
            Can we please put to rest this sorry meme about how King might be a closet Republican or something?

            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:07:44 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  One more! (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoosierD42, itskevin, gabjoh, tietack, jncca

              King on taxes. Story here.

              I’ve come to realize that the most influential defunct political philosopher of our times is Ronald Reagan. Genial and supremely likeable (he was the uncle we all wished we’d had), Reagan did some real good, like helping to drive the Soviet economy off the cliff and hastening the end of the Cold War. But he also unleashed two notions that are still reverberating today, have become fundamental pillars of the Conventional Wisdom, and are dividing the country to the point of undermining our ability to govern ourselves. The first is “Government isn’t the solution, it’s the problem.” Like all generalizations, this one is wrong.

              Sometimes government is the problem—when nonsensical regulations constrain worthwhile activity, when taxes reach confiscatory levels, or when government officials are corrupt or just plain incompetent. But when your house is burning down, you don’t think the (government) fire department is the problem, or when a (government) police officer or judge puts away the bad guy who robbed your store, or when you drive on the (government) highway to work. And we certainly didn’t think the Army, Navy, Marines, and Army Air Corps were the problem when we and the rest of Western Civilization were on the brink of defeat in World War II. The point is that government is not by a long shot always the problem—and in many cases (admittedly, not in all) it is the only possible solution.

              In fact, the two biggest disasters of the last few years—the financial meltdown and the Gulf oil gusher (as Bill Maher noted, calling this thing a “spill” is like calling World War II at “tiff”)—can both be attributed to not enough government. There’s not much doubt that the banking collapse was a direct result of insufficient regulatory oversight and the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, the depression-era law which prohibited commercial banks from also being risk-takers in investments like derivatives (a bi-partisan mistake in the late nineties). Likewise, it’s clear in hindsight that lax regulation of offshore drilling led directly to the disaster in the Gulf.

              Note that the government in no way caused these disasters—they were unadulterated products of the free market—but insufficient government certainly allowed them to happen.

              Hmm! Sounds dangerously center-right on that. Definitely doesn't voice a strong enough opinion to be trusted.
              The second notion that sprung from the Reagan era—which now seems to be the official core ideology of the Republican Party—is that taxes are always bad, always too high, and are always wasted by whatever level of government is collecting them. A formative experience for me in this regard occurred a couple of years ago at a Christmas party in a small town up (down?) the coast. I was talking to a nice lady who turned out to be a selectperson, and asked her what the hottest issue in town was these days. “Oh, property taxes, by far,” she replied immediately. So I followed-up, “What’s your mil rate?” “Nine mils,” was her indignant reply. Huh? In Brunswick, Portland, or Lewiston, people would kill for 9 mils (it’s more like 25 mils in those places—almost triple the level she was exercised about).

              I tell this story not to justify the rate in Brunswick but only to make the point that whatever the local level is, it’s perceived as too high. Maybe this is good because it leads to a healthy concentration on controlling taxes, regardless of the rate, but it easily slides over into an all-taxes-are-bad-and-too-high-no-matter-what attitude which leads in turn to an inability for government to deliver the services people need and expect.

              What a Republican stooge he is!
              The point is that taxes aren’t bad, per se. They can be too high and can discourage enterprise, to be sure, and we can certainly argue about what’s an essential expenditure, but some level of taxes are necessary to build the roads, equip the Army, and inspect the beef. And interestingly, in this year of the Tea Party and anti-tax mania, overall taxes (state, local, and federal) in the U.S. (are you sitting down?) are at the lowest level in 60 years. (That rascal Obama, lowering our taxes as part of the dreaded Stimulus Package; must be socialism in some kind of disguise). Hard to know what to make of this.

              My father—the best man I ever met—never complained about taxes. He had two principles: that paying income taxes was good because it meant that you were making money and, more fundamentally, that paying taxes was a privilege of citizenship. Can you imagine such a quaint idea?

              But I’ve come to think my Dad was closer to the truth than Reagan. Unfortunately, Dad only had me to listen to him while Reagan had the whole country.

              This piece is from 2010, by the way.

              Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:13:27 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  No one is saying he's center right (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike, DCCyclone

                Republicans probably wouldnt touch this guy with a ten foot poll. Im just saying its awfully dangerous to assume he's going to be an automatic D vote. He's independent for a reason.

                •  He'll be an irritant for sure (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin, LordMike, James Allen

                  The best we can realistically hope for, if King is the next Senator from Maine, is that he caucuses with us, votes with us at least as often as the other weak members of the Senate Dem caucus, and doesn't regularly rhetorically stick a needle in our eye.  Even with all that, prepare for a lot of irritating dissenting votes.

                  Still, he'll be better than Snowe, he'll at least live up in reality to the image of moderation Snowe only pretends to be.

                  43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 07:43:48 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I don't think that's the BEST we can hope for (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    itskevin, HoosierD42

                    I think that's the worst-case scenario; well, the very worst-case scenario, realistically, is that he refuses to join a caucus but still votes with us more than half the time. The best-case scenario is that he pulls a Sen. Sanders and joins the Democratic caucus full-time and votes as a reliable liberal while occasionally going on TV, like Sanders does, to talk about how he's an independent and he's not afraid to criticize the party leadership.

                    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 07:45:50 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I think that's naive (4+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      itskevin, LordMike, NMLib, jmartin4s

                      First, King isn't a leftist indy like Sanders, so he's not going to behave like Sanders.

                      He's going to behave a lot more like a Lieberman or Manchin or Ben Nelson than like what you envision.  If he behaved like you envision, he wouldn't be an indy in the first place.

                      The fact that he's running as an indy in a potential three-way already makes him an irritant in a much bigger way than dissenting on floor votes.  So why wouldn't he dissent plenty?

                      Yes he'll vote with us a "majority" of the time no matter what, but we get loyalty on a big majority of votes from everyone now and still have trouble on key votes.  King easily could be even more trouble.

                      You seem to suggest King will be an indy-in-name-only (an IINO!), and really a stealth Dem, but I think you badly understate the importance of party labels.  His lack of one and ability to win in spite of it incentivizes him for his own political gain to be an irritant.

                      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 07:54:19 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  His statement on caucusing tonight (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        DCCyclone

                        http://yfrog.com/...

                        seems to guarantee nothing for anyone. The guy just seems a bit unpredictable. Pure ambiguity.

                        •  I wouldn't read anything in this yet (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          KingofSpades, itskevin

                          He'd be a fool at this stage to say anything different than what he said in that clip.

                          Since he's running as an indy in a presumed legitimate 3-way, he needs at the outset a mix of Dems, indies, and GOPers to win, and he needlessly alienates some voters by picking a caucus now or even hinting at one.

                          He also wants something in exchange for picking a caucus, so why offer it for free?  At this stage he probably hasn't even considered what his terms for caucusing would be, so he shouldn't tip a hand at all.

                          I think only after the field is set and some campaigning and polling is behind us, at that point it becomes relevant to read into King's answer on this, or more precisely to read into a deliberate non-answer like today's.

                          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:07:12 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                      •  I don't think he'll be Manchin or Lieberman.. (0+ / 0-)

                        He'll probably be more like Feingold... an irritant from the left (which is much better than the alternative), but could be a key obstructionist on key bills.

                        Still, he'll be as reliable as Kucinich on important votes, and that's going to be a problem.

                        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                        by LordMike on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:04:39 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Russ Feingold is a good comparison (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          KingofSpades

                          Sen. Wyden is probably another good comparison. In fact, those two are probably the best comparisons I can think of. To a lesser extent, perhaps Bob Kerrey.

                          Rep. Kucinich, eh. King isn't a radical like Kucinich. I don't think we're likely to see King going to Syria to spew President Assad's propaganda, or calling for the president to be impeached over bombing Libya.

                          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                          by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:09:26 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  Why assume that? (0+ / 0-)

                          King did endorse George Bush in 2000, that's not really the mark of a raging progressive.

                          Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                          by NMLib on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:17:16 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  In 2000, George W. Bush ran... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            HoosierD42

                            As a center-right "compassionate conservative". He won a lot of President Clinton's strongholds that way and earned a lot of endorsements from typically liberal public figures and editorial boards.

                            Four years later, King endorsed Sen. Kerry. Eight years later, announcing for Senate, King said that while at the time he was governor, he always did what he believed was right, he has gained perspective and rethought some of his decisions since then.

                            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:20:21 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  What? (0+ / 0-)

                            So King was bamboozled into thinking that George Bush was merely a conservative Republican who wasn't an asshole?

                            Not to mention that the places where Bush was doing better than Dole were almost exclusively southern states where their conservatism was finally catching up with their voting records.

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:39:03 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  King was more conservative at the time (4+ / 0-)

                            Hell, Elizabeth Warren was a card-carrying Republican into her 40s. Gabrielle Giffords was a Republican until shortly before running for the Arizona state legislature.

                            And I think a lot of people were bamboozled by George W. Bush in 2000. The "compassionate conservative" thing was effective; it recalled President Reagan's kindly image and repudiated Newt Gingrich's dour one, President George H.W. Bush's detached one, and Pat Buchanan's snarly one. It reminded people of President Clinton's zipper problems and the unpopular aggression of his Justice Department. Bush told people he shared their values. People wanted to get a beer with him. They thought he was a sweet, if simple, kind of guy.

                            The more important data point to me is that in 2004, and really every time since then even when Republicans have been up big with "independent" voters, King has favored the Democrat.

                            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:48:52 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  George Bush lost the popular vote (0+ / 0-)

                            Couldn't have been all that effective (especially given Al Gore's pitiful campaign).

                            Plus, even you're conceding that he's had gripes with the Democrats from the right. And if he's really back to the left now, again, why does he refuse to become a Democrat? It can't be that he has no hope of winning, hell if Angus King had announced that he was going to run in the Democratic primary, I'd bet a lot of money that the Democrats would have bent over backwards to the clear the field for him, as he'd absolutely guarantee the senate seat and remove it from play.

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:57:39 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Come on, you're really going to deny... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            HoosierD42

                            George W. Bush's campaign wasn't effective, considering the number of states he flipped from 1996 and the number of usually-liberal public figures and editorial boards whose support he got? Yeah, I know he lost the popular vote, and by rights he should have lost the electoral vote. I think you know if I were warped back to 2000, I would have voted for then-Vice President Gore.

                            I'd rather judge King on where he stands on issues now than how he voted in 2000.

                            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:04:50 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  That he continues to deny the party label... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            jmartin4s

                            Is actually a major factor for me, all this talk about not wanting to tarnish his name by declaring himself a Democrat is ridiculous, he's an extremely popular figure, and not only that, he could very easily rejoin the Democrats and win the election and continue to be a beloved figure. He chooses not to rejoin the Democrats though, and he's not doing it from the left.

                            By the way, about Bush, the states that he won that Clinton also won in '96 are as follows:

                            Ohio, New Hampshire, Tennessee, Louisiana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Arizona, and Nevada. With the exception of New Hampshire, George Bush would win every one of these states in 2004. I absolutely do not concede your point about George Bush.

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:16:58 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Oh, you mean when he widened his margin of victory (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            HoosierD42

                            President Bush had an even more lackluster opponent in 2004. He won more of the vote in total. Bush presided over a partisan realignment of the states; he set a certain tone. Of course, by then King had reevaluated his previous support for Bush, and he endorsed Sen. Kerry.

                            I'm aware he chooses not to rejoin the Democrats, and I'm quite familiar with his centrist independent rhetoric, yadda yadda. I don't particularly care for it. But it plays well with Maine voters, and it's his prerogative, and I really would have rather he had decided not to run and endorsed Rep. Pingree instead. But he didn't, and he's running, and the numbers would suggest he's very likely to be Maine's next senator. All I'm doing is trying to dispel this hysterical, utterly baffling notion that he's some sort of stealth Republican Satan who is going to confound us at every turn and basically represent status quo for this seat.

                            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:37:45 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Once Again, NO ONE has said he is a republican (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen, NMLib

                            from everything I have read heard and various other sources, he sounds like a rogue indie. I do not think he would caucus with republicans but Im not sure if he is even going to caucus with anyone. The guy sounds very unpredictable and all over the place, somewhat lieberman-esq. The guy is a typical Maine moderate. He likes Chellie Pingree, he also likes Olympia Snowe. I do not like his ambiguity but Maine does and thus they are stuck with him. However, no one is saying he is an evil republican, just that he is all over the place.

                          •  Gabby Giffords was a Republican? (0+ / 0-)

                            What caused her to switch?

                          •  Not sure exactly (0+ / 0-)

                            In his book, Mark Kelly describes her as having decided the Democrats were a better fit sometime in the late '90s.

                            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:51:20 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Remember the Mayberry Machiavellis? (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            SaoMagnifico

                            You've heard of this term, right? If not, let me refresh your memory. It was coined by John J. Dilulio, Jr, who is one of the nation's leading political scientists and public policy intellectuals in the country. (There was some issue with his famous textbook, used all around the country in various high schools and/or colleges, including mine, which he coauthored with the late James Q. Wilson, for what it's worth.) He's a Democrat, and a conservative one, but he was impressed with Bush's commitment to "compassionate conservatism" that he agreed to lead the White House's Faith Based Initiative. He resigned in 2001 and famously said in the press, despite sticking up for President Bush as a person, "What you've got is everything--and I mean everything--being run by the political arm. It's the reign of the Mayberry Machiavellis."

                            My point is, Bush fooled A LOT of people.

                          •  A conservative Democrat though (0+ / 0-)

                            And frankly, it's not like King, at the time, disagreed with Bush's positions at the time.

                            Which leads to another problem, if what SanMagnifico is saying is true about King changing his mind, then that means he's actually changed his mind about his own ideology several times throughout his political career. That actually makes him less reliable.

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:21:07 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Who hasn't? (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            HoosierD42

                            I mean, how many Democrats voted for the use of force in Iraq, but later regretted their vote?

                            How many Democrats voted for DOMA who now support marriage equality? Hell, President Clinton signed DOMA and last month he was lobbying Sam "Fuckface" Arora to vote for same-sex marriage's legalization in Maryland.

                            The fact that King's first term was characterized by some center-right tendencies and specific complaints about the left on the role of government does give me some pause. But he's appeared to move left since 2000 or so, and his recent statements and writings strongly suggest a man who thinks Republicans are going down the wrong path and believes in a vision far more akin to Democrats' than to anyone else's for the future of America.

                            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:55:36 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  I'd say more like Mark Warner (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          LordMike

                          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

                          by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:26:22 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                      •  He's not a leftist? (0+ / 0-)

                        The guy who said President Reagan and the Republican Party got it dead wrong on lower taxes and smaller government isn't  a leftist? The guy who donated $1,000 to President Obama in the winter of voters' discontent in late 2010 isn't a leftist? The guy who said Citizens United is the worst Supreme Court ruling since Dred Scott isn't a leftist?

                        Jesus. The guy may not be a Democrat, and he very well might be a "pox on both your houses" pain in the ass, but he's a liberal man and yet we're collectively buying into this "OMG he is evil incarnate!" hysteria. If a Democrat had published the op-eds or made the statements he has in 2010, 2011, and 2012, he or she would be a progressive hero on DK.

                        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:06:30 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  No he's not a leftist (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          NMLib

                          If he was, he would identify himself clearly as such like Sanders does, but which King doesn't do.

                          If he was, he wouldn't posture as a centrist, which King does.

                          He would vote with us more often than not, sure.

                          But his shunning the formal Democratic banner means he's going to dissent from the right more than normal, or else he wouldn't shun the banner as a centrist like he does.  And if he really decides not to caucus at all, he'll split from us even more.

                          None of this is to say he might not be our strategically best option.  He might be just that.

                          But he's not something to celebrate, he's something to accept because it's our best option.

                          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:11:25 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Of course he's not as far left... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            itskevin

                            As Sen. Sanders. If, as I wish would happen, the existing two-party system (right-wing and center-left) became a three-party system (right-wing, centrist, and left-wing), Sanders would join the left-wing party while King and most Democrats would be in the centrist grouping. But relative to the political center as it currently exists, King is on the left, and he's probably further to the left than many members of the Democratic caucus.

                            Yes, he rhetorically positions himself as a centrist. So does the entire state of Maine. Angus King is Maine with a mustache. You have to remember Maine is a state where the largest share of voters are unaffiliated; it's a state that has long preferred political moderates and mavericks; and it's a state whose interests have historically been given short shrift at the national level due to more politically relevant, powerful neighbors.

                            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:17:45 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  King isn't a stealth Democrat (4+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            NMLib, okiedem, jmartin4s, jncca

                            King was a Democrat in name.  He purposely left in the 90s.  He had unkind things to say about his old party and the alternative at the time, and about his old party he clearly dissed them as too liberal.

                            He's still an independent after all this time.

                            His recent record of rhetoric and political contributions and endorsements certainly establish he's very likely to end up caucusing with Dems.

                            But being an indy on purpose, and as a deliberate choice away from the Democrats in the first place, means he's going to posture and vote further away from us than some here seem to think.  If anything he jeopardizes his public image among Mainers by failing to do so.

                            You seem to say his independent label means nothing.  I think that's unsupportable.

                            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:29:38 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Really? (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            DCCyclone
                            King, originally a Democrat, had come to believe that ''sometimes the best thing the government can do is get out of the way.'' He attacked high taxes, clumsy government meddling in business, and called for specific cuts.
                            http://nationaljournal.com/...

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:31:18 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  God the Very Serious People are going to love this (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            DCCyclone, NMLib

                            The David Brooks columns are going to be nauseating.

                            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

                            by okiedem on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:36:58 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  He has since written... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            KingofSpades

                            That he has come around to thinking President Reagan was ultimately wrong, and said that he would do some things he did as governor differently based on the perspective he's gained since then. He's also defended regulation and ballyhooed Republicans' insistence on lower taxes all the time.

                            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:42:33 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  flip flop flip flop flip flop flip flop (4+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            DCCyclone, NMLib, James Allen, jncca
                          •  Then why doesn't he run as a Democrat? (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            NMLib, James Allen

                            He could announce in a heartbeat he's re-registering as a Democrat (Maine registers by party, I checked) and become the instant frontrunner in the primary and then coast to a November win.  He'd lose some center-right support, but not much because he's so personally popular.

                            That he's an independent and is running as such, the Democratic Party and its nominee be damned, means something.  It's a blind spot to think it means nothing.

                            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:46:53 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Damn it DCCyclone, you beat me to the punch! n/t (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            DCCyclone

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:51:06 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Then why not just come back into the fold? (0+ / 0-)

                            Honestly, the only reason that he could have to not be a Democrat is that he still has very serious disagreements with the party (and there really isn't any indication that he's to the left of the Democratic Party, which is what matters).

                            This isn't Florida, this is fucking Maine, having someone who will vote against us at times (that's not really up for discussion, to be blunt) isn't optimal for us. If it's possible, we need to get someone who will actually call themselves a Democrat in there (or someone who is actually like Bernie Sanders).

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:50:25 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Even Sen. Sanders... (0+ / 0-)

                            Doesn't always vote with us. In fact, he filibustered one of President Obama's agenda items fairly recently.

                            I definitely want King to rejoin the Democratic Party. But I think he figures his image is that of an independent who reflects Maine's (center-left to left-wing) values and joining a party, or announcing he'll caucus with a party once he gets to Washington before he's even up with a functioning campaign, would tarnish that.

                            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:56:35 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

              •  Nice research! (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin, LordMike, KingofSpades

                He sounds like Jeezum Crow Jim Jeffords.

                "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                by tietack on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:43:33 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Sounds like an IINO (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sapelcovits

                I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

                by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:24:20 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Reading you has convinced me his ideology is (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico

                mostly or entirely sound. But now the question is, what sort of loyalty might have to the party and its objectives? It's no surprise it'd be less than what Pingree would feel were she the senator, and I can't fault him for that. At the same time, though, is he going to be a combination of the worst qualities of Romney, McCain, and Snowe? Probably not, but we can't be sure. I suspect I am not the only one who feels this way.

                •  No loyalty to the party, really (0+ / 0-)

                  It's like the discussion the other day about Sen. Wyden. I like Wyden a lot, and I appreciate his political detachment at times; he cosponsors a lot of bipartisan bills, quite a few of which are very unorthodox and innovative (most of those bills going nowhere quickly), and doesn't seem to have much patience for the tribal atmosphere of Washington.

                  But sometimes Wyden is a pain in the ass with things like Wyden-Ryan that undermine our campaign strategy, and it frustrates me on occasion that while Sen. Merkley and the two Maryland senators are willing to go hammer-and-tongs against the Republican Party for being obstructionist, regressive, and willfully destructive, he prefers to tout his work across the aisle whenever possible.

                  King is going to be like Wyden. Then-Sen. Feingold was also like that. It's an occasionally refreshing, occasionally maddening quality, and we're probably just going to have to live with it.

                  Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:02:09 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  That's the danger with King. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico

                    He's not a partisan Democrat, but he's definitely on the left. He might be more moderate now--and he might have been even more right-of-center back then, although I can't get worked up until I study the period itself more*--but he doesn't feel the loyalty to the party that Pingree would feel. I'm more than prepared to deal with that, but it's likely to be an issue.

                    *As far as the interesting National Journal article linked to above, maybe lower taxes were necessary at the time. Maybe less regulation was called for as well. I'm definitely of the mind that government can and should be used as a force for good, but it's not a blunt instrument. We shouldn't rely on a one-sided view of the world any more than the Republicans do. I'm not saying anyone here in particular does it, but it does happen.

                    •  He did note in at least one of those essays... (0+ / 0-)

                      That the Glass-Steagull repeal was a bad decision that helped touch off the economic recession.

                      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:39:07 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  on the left? (0+ / 0-)

                      that's gotta depend on your definition of "the left".  I think the comparison to Wyden is apt, and so is mine to Mark Warner, more insofar as ideology than behavior, but while I consider Warner and Wyden liberal, I don't think they're on the left.  Like, at all.  King seems like a goo goo kind of guy, and a modus vivendi liberal, but not so much of a leftist.

                      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

                      by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:40:32 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  To me, "liberal" is "left" (0+ / 0-)

                        King does strike me as far more populist than Sen. Wyden. But I think both of them share a similar distaste for tribal politics and partisanship. I dunno about Sen. Warner, I think he's just a fairly typical Democrat with some centrist rhetoric tacked on.

                        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:49:35 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  after all the political theory classes (0+ / 0-)

                          I took I can't be as simple as left = liberal and right = conservative.

                          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

                          by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:57:24 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

        •  one thing about that website (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, James Allen

          is that they don't count "no position" like congress counts an "abstain."

          Rather, they count it as a centrist position.

          So someone who had 4 progressive answers and 13 "no answers" would be considered a moderate.

          Their system only works if nearly every issue is answered, which it isn't for King.

          19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

          by jncca on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:50:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Those are your famous last words (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, James Allen, jmartin4s

        jmartin is right, he's an independent for a reason, he's going to be an irritant with some frequency.

        The game now is a complicated one for the DSCC.  I imagine they'll put a poll in the field testing 3-ways with King, Pingree, and one or two Republicans, and try to test trial heats and messages.  Then they'll have to game out from the results and talks with people on the ground whether King is beatable from the left in a 3-way, what the odds are, and if they're poor even with Pingree who likely is our strongest candidate then what are the odds we can privately work with King to clear the field for him and make his election easier (you figure he'd like the security of knowing he's got a 2-way with a Republican in a Democratic state) in exchange for a pledge to caucus with the Dems.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 07:47:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Of course that kind of "deal making"... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          ...would make him look less "independent", so he'll probably reject it.  This just sucks... We'll see what PPP says tomorrow.  Last time they said that a race would be intriguing, they had Manchin losing the WV special election (the first poll).  Pingree only has a week to decide, and it's no longer going to be an easy race.  King will get a nice announcement bounce, further clouding the polling picture.

          I was worried this would happen.  These fucking northern states and their obsessions with third parties.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:02:41 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The deal would have to be stealth (5+ / 0-)

            Yes you're right that the appearance of dealmaking would hurt him, which is why he'd work out something in private and then at some point publicly indicate he'll caucus with Dems.  He'll probably do so with some public dissent mixed in with the pledge, "warning" Dems not to count on his vote, and to expect him to dissent frequently.

            Problem is, he'll then live up to the warning as a Senator.  Which is why I say people shouldn't assume he'll behave like a stealth Democrat.

            This is where some people here seem to miss how important the party label really is.  King might very well be to the left of some Democratic Senators, but the fact those people wear the party label keeps them quietly in line on a lot of votes.  Take the party label away, and they would dissent more.  They wear the label because it was necessary to rise politically in their careers, and in exchange, tribal loyalty is required.  King has found a workaround, and as such he's not a member of our tribe and owes no tribal loyalty.  And in fact he might go further and find his political image requires dissenting on some key votes where he could go either way, just to maintain an "independent" image.  And the same political self-preservation might cause him to trash Democrats rhetorically.  His self-preservation requires trashing parties and their positions on issues, so that's what he'll do...the only question is how much.

            Again, we might tactically be stuck with resigning to a King win and hten wooing King into the Democratic caucus.  But that's something to accept, not celebrate.

            If Pingree can win a 3-way, that's a win we would celebrate.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:41:39 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I agree on all counts (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin

              That's why I would prefer Rep. Pingree as senator. I don't think King would be bad, but Pingree would be better. The thing is, I don't think she will run now, I think it risks the seat for her to run now (considering she will need to hit King hard to dent that massive positive favorability spread), and I kind of hope she keeps her powder dry until 2014, considering if she gets whomped in a three-way race, her daughter could go down with her in a seat we really need to count on keeping; and also considering that I like her and I want her to keep her political career alive and robust.

              Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:53:23 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  I have little doubt... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, itskevin, HoosierD42

          That's exactly what King is angling for. I can't imagine a guy who said Republicans are sabotaging themselves by insisting on no new taxes, trying to gut government regulation, and demonizing immigrants and Muslims is seriously intending to ever caucus with the GOP. (I do, however, think he would like Sen. Snowe's endorsement.)

          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:11:26 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Angus King... I don't get it (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jmartin4s

    The guy wants to be a Senator.
    The guy is the most popular politican in the state.
    Why didn't he run against Collins?
    Why didn't he announce to run against Snowe months ago?

    If he can beat anybody for anything, why didn't he just run before now?  As an independent he never has to worry about stepping on anyone's toes.

    I suppose Bernie Sanders is unfortunately a role model, but the pretense here is absurd (same with sanders too).  If you are going to caucus with the Dems, just run as a Dem and the election is 100% over.  Why make is life more difficult, drama-filled and costly?

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:28:15 PM PST

  •  Palin suggests West as Republican VP (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, gabjoh, LordMike, Lidem89

    http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/...

    I believe that Sharron Angle should also be under consideration.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:36:17 PM PST

    •  Why does she call him Col.? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, gabjoh, LordMike

      He waived his right to be called that when he resigned his position in dishonor.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:45:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think King will pull a stunt... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    of not caucusing with either party and try to start an indie caucus to pull moderates from both sides as a more official "Gang of X" type.  This guy will love the idea of being the 50th vote type deal.  Egomaniac type.

    I think Dems need a top recruit to try and beat this guy.  However I think he's perfectly set up to win as he'll run second place at worst and whichever side is third will swing his way come November to give him the win to keep the other side from winning.

  •  Lolololol (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, KingofSpades

    Courtesy of my roommate: https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/...

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:32:05 PM PST

  •  Bill Clinton to fundraise with Obama (5+ / 0-)
    Former President Bill Clinton has agreed to make joint appearances with President Barack Obama at a series of fundraisers, according to three people familiar with the matter.

    The 42nd and the 44th presidents will appear together at events in the coming months in Los Angeles, Chicago and New York, according to one of the people. The New York fundraiser is aimed at donors in the financial services industry, said the person, who like the others spoke on the condition of anonymity because they hadn’t been authorized to talk about the events.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/...
  •  My new favorite Twitter Account (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, supercereal

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit!

    by Daman09 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 07:23:40 PM PST

  •  New regulations for being a Republican (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, SaoMagnifico, supercereal

    In Laurens County, South Carolina

    http://www.clintonchronicle.com/...

    A couple of the rules

    You must favor, and live up to, abstinence before marriage.

    You cannot now, from the moment you sign this pledge, look at pornography.

    I guess none of the party in that county thought this was, I don't know, a tiny bit obsessive. A lot of the candidates would have to lie.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:22:09 PM PST

    •  It seems fair. (0+ / 0-)

      I remember when Al Franken pretending to be a conservative author writing a book about abstinence only education and trying to get different right-wing republican politifcians to be one of his "abstinence heroes" who'd talk about their of not having sex before marriage.  He of course couldn't find one.

  •  NJ-10 uhh wtf... (0+ / 0-)

    Newark Councilman Ron C. Rice's webpage no longer uses the word "exploratory" to describe his campaign, suggesting that he is formally in the race...but this is questionable timing seeing as how Don Payne is literally in the fight of his life...

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:59:57 PM PST

  •  Pingree decision could come today (0+ / 0-)
    Maine political insiders are now increasingly skeptical she’ll pull the trigger.

    “I really don’t think Chellie will run now. If I was a betting man, I bet she holds back. Angus doesn’t have anything to lose. She does,” said an unaligned consultant who has advised on statewide races in Maine.

    “I know she wants to run this race,” said a top Republican official in Maine who requested anonymity to speak freely about the fluid political maneuvering. “The fact she hasn’t jumped in yet shows she knows Angus is a serious threat.”

    Following King’s entrance into the race, Pingree issued a carefully-worded statement that touched on the issues at play.

    “This is an extremely important election and a lot is at stake, including control of the U.S. Senate,” she said. “While I have been humbled by the tremendous outpouring of support encouraging me to run, I’m going to continue thinking very carefully about whether or not I should enter this race, and will take all the factors into consideration before deciding how I can best serve the people of Maine.”

    A public decision from Pingree could come as early as Tuesday

    http://www.politico.com/...

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

    by Paleo on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 02:45:37 AM PST

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