As was predicted over the weekend, there is an absolute ton of polling data to sift through that has accumulated over the past 48 hours. Perhaps it stands to reason, of course, that virtually all of the deluge is made up from GOP presidential primary polling based in the states that make up tomorrow's "Super Tuesday" spate of elections.
Taken as a whole, they are extraordinarily good polls for Mitt Romney. After the jump, I will explore whether that is a good thing, or a bad thing. But, first, the numbers themselves, starting with an ample supply of Republican primary numbers.
GOP PRIMARY:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 38, Santorum 22, Gingrich 15, Paul 12
NATIONAL (NBC News/Wall Street Journal): Romney 38, Santorum 32, Gingrich 13, Paul 13
GEORGIA (American Research Group): Gingrich 44, Romney 24, Santorum 19, Paul 9
GEORGIA (CNN/ORC): Gingrich 47, Romney 24, Santorum 15, Paul 9
GEORGIA (Insider Advantage/Fox 5 Atlanta): Gingrich 47, Romney 21, Santorum 18, Paul 6
GEORGIA (Mason Dixon/Atlanta Journal-Constitution): Gingrich 38, Romney 24, Santorum 22, Paul 3
GEORGIA (PPP): Gingrich 47, Romney 24, Santorum 19, Paul 8
GEORGIA (Rasmussen): Gingrich 37, Romney 27, Santorum 18, Paul 10
GEORGIA (Rosetta Stone/Landmark): Gingrich 44, Romney 24, Santorum 17, Paul 7
OHIO (American Research Group): Romney 35, Santorum 28, Gingrich 18, Paul 13
OHIO (CNN/ORC): Romney 32, Santorum 32, Gingrich 14, Paul 11
OHIO (Ipsos/Reuters): Romney 32, Santorum 32, Gingrich 17, Paul 6
OHIO (Marist/NBC News): Santorum 34, Romney 32, Gingrich 15, Paul 13
OHIO (Merriman River Group): Romney 38, Santorum 33, Gingrich 18, Paul 8
OHIO (PPP): Romney 37, Santorum 36, Gingrich 15, Paul 11
OHIO (Quinnipiac): Romney 34, Santorum 31, Gingrich 15, Paul 12
OHIO (Rasmussen): Santorum 32, Romney 31, Gingrich 13, Paul 13
OHIO (Suffolk University): Santorum 37, Romney 33, Gingrich 16, Paul 8
OKLAHOMA (American Research Group): Santorum 37, Romney 26, Gingrich 22, Paul 9
TENNESSEE (American Research Group): Santorum 35, Romney 31, Gingrich 20, Paul 9
TENNESSEE (PPP): Santorum 34, Romney 29, Gingrich 27, Paul 8
TENNESSEE (Rasmussen): Santorum 34, Romney 30, Gingrich 18, Paul 8
TENNESSEE (We Ask America): Romney 30, Gingrich 29, Santorum 29, Paul 12
VIRGINIA (Marist/NBC News): Romney 69, Paul 26 (Gingrich, Santorum not on ballot)
Head past the jump for why this downpour of numbers is both the best thing that could happen for Mitt Romney, and a potential disaster for Mittens, at the same time.
GENERAL ELECTION:
NATIONAL (NBC News/Wall Street Journal): Obama d. Romney (50-44); Obama d. Paul (50-42); Obama d. Santorum (53-39); Obama d. Gingrich (54-37)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (45-43); Obama d. Paul (43-41); Obama d. Santorum (46-42); Obama d. Gingrich (48-40)
GEORGIA (CNN/ORC): Obama tied with Generic Republican (48-48)
MASSACHUSETTS (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (55-38)
MASSACHUSETTS (Western New England College): Obama d. Romney (60-36); Obama d. Santorum (66-27)
OHIO (CNN/ORC): Obama d. Generic Republican (49-45)
OHIO (Marist/NBC News): Obama d. Paul (48-38); Obama d. Romney (50-38); Obama d. Santorum (50-36); Obama d. Gingrich (51-36)
VIRGINIA (Marist/NBC News): Obama d. Romney (52-35); Obama d. Paul (53-32); Obama d. Santorum (54-32); Obama d. Gingrich (57-31)
If there was a consistent theme in the punditry and analysis this weekend in the presidential campaign, it was a theme centering around the rebirth of the concept of Mitt Romney's inevitability as the Republican nominee.
As a case in point, take the words of one of the chief purveyors of media conventional wisdom: ABC's The Note:
It’s not a done deal yet, but a Romney win in Ohio — a rust-belt state that border’s Santorum’s stronghold of Pennsylvania — could end up being one giant leap toward securing the nomination for Romney.
It’s not that Santorum and New Gingrich aren’t well-positioned to win states tomorrow night. Santorum has a shot in Tennessee and Oklahoma and Gingrich remains ahead in the polls in Georgia, but for Santorum, in particular, a loss in a state as hard-fought as Ohio could prove to be a fatal blow.
This weekend's data did nothing to quell the Romney momentum talk. After trailing in the Buckeye State by modest margins last week, Romney held the lead in more Ohio polls this past weekend than did Santorum (4-to-3). And, if one recalls that Santorum
failed to file a complete slate of delegates in Ohio, it seems to be probable at this point that Mitt Romney will take more delegates from the state than will Santorum, even if Santorum manages to cling to the popular vote win there.
In states with a prior survey in the books, the polls are clearly running away from Santorum. That is the case not only in Ohio, but also in Tennessee and Georgia. Remember, it was not long ago when people openly wondered if Santorum could pull the upset in Georgia, and effectively knock Newt Gingrich from the race. Now, Santorum looks likely to place third in Georgia, and quite possibly a distant third.
However, bear in mind that all of this polling data is framing tomorrow in a way that could prove totally disastrous for Mitt Romney. The poll-generated notion of Romney "momentum" (or, perhaps, equal parts gained momentum for Romney and lost momentum for Santorum) has set the expectations bar in a perilous spot for the Romney campaign.
At this point, I would suspect that the press would play it as a big upset if Santorum was able to carry the popular vote in Ohio, despite the fact that Santorum has been the leader for most of the past month. Even Tennessee would be seen as a potentially big get for Santorum, even though only one poll has had him anywhere but in the lead, and even that poll had him one point out of the front spot.
However, the interesting saving grace for Mitt Romney may well be that it might not be Santorum that becomes the story tomorrow night should Romney stub his toe and underperform expectations. Newt Gingrich looks likely to take a big win in his home state of Georgia, and two polls have him, shockingly, within range of the upset in Tennessee. What if (and I acknowledge the remoteness of this possibility) Gingrich wins in both Georgia and Tennessee, and overperforms in Ohio and Oklahoma? Especially with Alabama and Mississippi on deck next week? We could get round 13 of the Anti-Mitt, after all.
There is a growing chorus that Romney will all but close the deal tomorrow. He had better hope he does, because if he fails to do so, he might face another round of "anti-Mitt" hysteria. Failing that, he may well be subjecting himself to a painful couple of weeks of uncertainty. And with the GOP primary clearly hurting the prospects of all potential White House contenders by helping to make the president look good by comparison, the Republicans desperately need this thing to be over tomorrow.