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Okay, so the Special Master drawing the court plan for New York's Congressional Districts has released his map today. Here are the statistics for the plan, as crunched by me.

Let's lead this off with the DRA file, after that, some geek stats.

The DRA File

Update: I thought I'd throw in CVAP stats for the majority-minority districts in NYC. These might be handy to have.

5th: 59% Black CVAP, 17% White CVAP, 15% Hispanic CVAP, 10% Asian CVAP
6th: 50% White CVAP, 31% Asian CVAP, 15% Hispanic CVAP
7th: 39% Hispanic CVAP, 35% White CVAP, 17% Asian CVAP
8th: 53% Black CVAP, 29% White CVAP, 15% Hispanic CVAP
9th: 52% Black CVAP, 29% White CVAP, 15% Hispanic CVAP
13th: 49% Hispanic CVAP, 32% Black CVAP, 17% White CVAP
14th: 40% Hispanic CVAP, 35% White CVAP, 13% Asian CVAP, 13% Black CVAP
15th: 62% Hispanic CVAP, 32% Black CVAP,
16th: 49% White CVAP, 31% Black CVAP, 16% Hispanic CVAP.

District Obama McCain D R
1 51.4 % 47.6 % 54 % 46 %
2 51.2 % 47.9 % 53.5 % 46.5 %
3 53.5 % 45.6 % 55.9 % 44.1 %
4 55.3 % 43.9 % 57 % 43 %
5 86.3 % 13.4 % 87 % 13 %
6 63.5 % 35.6 % 67.8 % 32.2 %
7 84.4 % 14.9 % 86.7 % 13.3 %
8 83.6 % 16.1 % 84.6 % 15.4 %
9 86.1 % 13.4 % 87.1 % 12.9 %
10 75.7 % 23.3 % 76.2 % 23.8 %
11 48.3 % 50.9 % 52.1 % 47.9 %
12 80.2 % 18.8 % 76.6 % 23.4 %
13 93.3 % 6.1 % 93.6 % 6.4 %
14 76.1 % 23.2 % 78.1 % 21.9 %
15 94.5 % 5.2 % 95.7 % 4.3 %
16 72.9 % 26.5 % 71.5 % 28.5 %
17 57.9 % 41.3 % 60.2 % 39.8 %
18 52.1 % 46.8 % 54.3 % 45.7 %
19 53 % 45.3 % 53.3 % 46.7 %
20 58.3 % 39.8 % 59.8 % 40.2 %
21 51.7 % 46.7 % 53.8 % 46.2 %
22 49.1 % 49.1 % 50.9 % 49.1 %
23 49.6 % 48.8 % 49 % 51 %
24 56.2 % 42 % 57.5 % 42.5 %
25 58.8 % 39.9 % 59.6 % 40.4 %
26 63.5 % 35 % 58.9 % 41.1 %
27 44.5 % 53.9 % 42.3 % 57.7 %
District White Black Hispanic Asian
1 78 % 4 % 13 % 3 %
2 66 % 9 % 20 % 3 %
3 72 % 3 % 10 % 13 %
4 61 % 14 % 18 % 5 %
5 12 % 50 % 19 % 11 %
6 38 % 4 % 18 % 37 %
7 28 % 8 % 43 % 18 %
8 22 % 52 % 18 % 5 %
9 30 % 50 % 11 % 6 %
10 65 % 4 % 12 % 17 %
11 64 % 7 % 16 % 11 %
12 67 % 5 % 13 % 13 %
13 12 % 27 % 55 % 4 %
14 25 % 10 % 47 % 16 %
15 2 % 29 % 65 % 2 %
16 40 % 30 % 23 % 5 %
17 63 % 10 % 20 % 6 %
18 72 % 8 % 15 % 3 %
19 86 % 4 % 6 % 1 %
20 80 % 9 % 5 % 4 %
21 92 % 3 % 3 % 1 %
22 89 % 4 % 3 % 2 %
23 90 % 3 % 3 % 2 %
24 84 % 8 % 4 % 2 %
25 72 % 15 % 7 % 3 %
26 71 % 18 % 5 % 3 %
27 93 % 2 % 2 % 1 %
District WhiteVAP BlackVAP HispanicVAP AsianVAP
1 80 % 4 % 11 % 3 %
2 69 % 8 % 19 % 3 %
3 74 % 3 % 9 % 13 %
4 63 % 13 % 17 % 5 %
5 13 % 50 % 18 % 11 %
6 40 % 4 % 17 % 37 %
7 29 % 8 % 41 % 19 %
8 25 % 51 % 17 % 5 %
9 30 % 51 % 11 % 6 %
10 65 % 4 % 12 % 17 %
11 67 % 6 % 14 % 11 %
12 68 % 4 % 12 % 13 %
13 14 % 27 % 53 % 4 %
14 28 % 10 % 45 % 16 %
15 3 % 29 % 64 % 2 %
16 42 % 30 % 21 % 5 %
17 64 % 10 % 19 % 6 %
18 74 % 8 % 13 % 3 %
19 88 % 4 % 5 % 1 %
20 83 % 8 % 4 % 4 %
21 92 % 3 % 2 % 1 %
22 91 % 3 % 3 % 2 %
23 91 % 3 % 3 % 2 %
24 86 % 7 % 3 % 2 %
25 76 % 13 % 6 % 3 %
26 75 % 16 % 4 % 3 %
27 94 % 2 % 2 % 1 %
District 1 2 3 4 5
1 Bishop 97% Israel 3%      
2 Israel 53% King 47%      
3 Israel 39% Ackerman 33% King 23% Meeks 3% Bishop 1%
4 McCarthy 81% King 19%      
5 Meeks 81% McCarthy 11% Turner 5% Ackerman 2%  
6 Turner 45% Ackerman 38% Crowley 8% Meeks 6% Velazquez 3%
7 Velazquez 71% Towns 12% Turner 7% Clarke 7% Maloney 3%
8 Towns 61% Turner 17% Nadler 9% Clarke 7% Velazquez 3%
9 Clarke 68% Towns 21% Turner 11%    
10 Nadler 69% Rangel 14% Grimm 8% Clarke 5% Turner 3%
11 Grimm 88% Nadler 9% Turner 3%    
12 Maloney 77% Velazquez 13% Nadler 10%    
13 Rangel 73% Engel 14% Serrano 12% Maloney 1%  
14 Crowley 62% Ackerman 20% Maloney 11% Velazquez 5% Rangel 2%
15 Serrano 84% Crowley 16%      
16 Engel 49% Lowey 44% Crowley 6%    
17 Lowey 48% Engel 32% Hayworth 20%    
18 Hayworth 74% Hinchey 23% Gibson 2% Lowey 1%  
19 Gibson 44% Hinchey 38% Hanna 7% Tonko 7% Hayworth 4%
20 Tonko 83% Gibson 17% Bishop 0%    
21 Owens 62% Gibson 33% Tonko 4% Hanna 1%  
22 Hanna 56% Hinchey 23% Owens 20%    
23 Reed 54% Higgins 19% Hanna 17% Hinchey 10%  
24 Buerkle 80% Owens 11% Hanna 10%    
25 Slaughter 38% Reed 28% Hochul 20% Buerkle 14%  
26 Higgins 42% Slaughter 37% Hochul 20%    
27 Hochul 53% Higgins 27% Reed 11% Slaughter 9%
District Kerry Bush Clinton Lazio
1 49.3% 50.7% 40.7% 59.3%
2 49.5% 50.5% 41.2% 58.8%
3 51.8% 48.2% 44.9% 55.1%
4 54.4% 45.6% 47.3% 52.7%
5 84.8% 15.2% 83% 17%
6 60.1% 39.9% 57.6% 42.4%
7 81.5% 18.5% 81% 19%
8 80.3% 19.7% 80.9% 19.1%
9 83.3% 16.7% 84.3% 15.7%
10 72.2% 27.8% 69.2% 30.8%
11 43.4% 56.6% 42.8% 57.2%
12 76.8% 23.2% 71.8% 28.2%
13 91.7% 8.3% 90.3% 9.7%
14 70.7% 29.3% 71.1% 28.9%
15 91.8% 8.2% 93% 7%
16 68.1% 31.9% 63.6% 36.4%
17 54% 46% 48.8% 51.2%
18 46.2% 53.8% 40.6% 59.4%
19 48.7% 51.3% 44.2% 55.8%
20 55.9% 44.1% 54% 46%
21 47.1% 52.9% 45.5% 54.5%
22 46.3% 53.7% 45.6% 54.4%
23 45.1% 54.9% 44.5% 55.5%
24 52.2% 47.8% 51.4% 48.6%
25 52.1% 47.9% 49.8% 50.2%
26 63.4% 36.6% 63.3% 36.7%
27 42.6% 57.4% 43% 57%
District Schneiderman Donovan DiNapoli Wilson
1 44.7% 55.3% 44.2% 55.8%
2 44.6% 55.4% 44.2% 55.8%
3 47.4% 52.6% 47% 53%
4 49.1% 50.9% 49% 51%
5 84% 16% 83.3% 16.7%
6 60.2% 39.8% 58.5% 41.5%
7 82.5% 17.5% 80% 20%
8 82.1% 17.9% 81.1% 18.9%
9 85.1% 14.9% 84.3% 15.7%
10 71.8% 28.2% 64.8% 35.2%
11 37.9% 62.1% 44.6% 55.4%
12 75.1% 24.9% 66.2% 33.8%
13 91.7% 8.3% 87.9% 12.1%
14 73.4% 26.6% 71.3% 28.7%
15 93.6% 6.4% 92.7% 7.3%
16 65.5% 34.5% 61.2% 38.8%
17 54.1% 45.9% 49.4% 50.6%
18 47.6% 52.4% 44.9% 55.1%
19 47.7% 52.3% 43.2% 56.8%
20 52.9% 47.1% 46.1% 53.9%
21 46% 54% 40.1% 59.9%
22 46% 54% 37.8% 62.2%
23 44.2% 55.8% 37.9% 62.1%
24 50.6% 49.4% 42.4% 57.6%
25 53.3% 46.7% 43.4% 56.6%
26 55.3% 44.7% 48.4% 51.6%
27 37.6% 62.4% 31.1% 68.9%
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Comment Preferences

  •  Do you have a link to the Special Master's map? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    twohundertseventy

    Ultimately, the only thing that matters with respect to preserving choice is who will be nominating the next Supreme Court Justices.

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 09:28:36 AM PST

  •  kings district got broken into 3 parts: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17

    any chance we can beat him?

    Also put the tag DK Elections in this diary so it shows up on the DKE page

  •  PVIs (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    District first, then D+/R+.

    15    D+42.55
    13    D+41.9
    5    D+34.95
    9    D+34.1
    7    D+32.35
    8    D+31.35
    12    D+27.9
    10    D+23.35
    14    D+22.8
    16    D+19.9
    26    D+12.85
    6    D+11.2
    20    D+6.5
    17    D+5.35
    25    D+4.85
    4    D+4.25
    24    D+3.6
    3    D+2.05
    19    D+0.25
    1    R+0.25
    2    R+0.25
    21    R+1.2
    18    R+1.45
    22    R+2.9
    23    R+3.25
    11    R+4.75
    27    R+7.05

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 09:32:12 AM PST

    •  Comparison (0+ / 0-)

      with the current districts:

      New York    16th    D+41
      New York    15th    D+41
      New York    11th    D+38
      New York    10th    D+38
      New York    6th    D+36
      New York    12th    D+33
      New York    14th    D+26
      New York    7th    D+26
      New York    8th    D+22
      New York    17th    D+18
      New York    28th    D+15
      New York    5th    D+12
      New York    18th    D+9
      New York    4th    D+6
      New York    21st    D+6
      New York    22nd    D+6
      New York    9th    D+5
      New York    2nd    D+4
      New York    27th    D+4
      New York    25th    D+3
      New York    1st    EVEN
      New York    23rd    R+1
      New York    20th    R+2
      New York    24th    R+2
      New York    19th    R+3
      New York    3rd    R+4
      New York    13th    R+4
      New York    29th    R+5
      New York    26th    R+6

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 09:39:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Someone up there doesn't like me. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Geenius at Wrok, James Allen

    Last month, I moved 5 miles from Bedford to North Castle, taking me out of Nan Hayworth's district and putting me in Nita Lowey's.  Now, they have added my part of North Castle to Hayworth's district.  ARGGGGGGGGGGGH!

    Ultimately, the only thing that matters with respect to preserving choice is who will be nominating the next Supreme Court Justices.

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 09:37:56 AM PST

  •  Looks like Gibson and Owens are in trouble (0+ / 0-)

    But I don't know the partisan tilt of the portion of Hinchey's district in Gibson's or Gibson's in Owens'.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

    by Paleo on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 09:38:27 AM PST

    •  Gibson's district (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen

      was R+2, now it's even/little D+, if he runs in the 19th.  The 21st is only R+1, if Owens runs there, and his current district is the same.  

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 09:42:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The part that goes Hinchey->Gibson (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Paleo

      is 59.6% Obama two-way.

      The part that goes Gibson->Owens is 50.5% Obama.

    •  Owens, etc. (6+ / 0-)

      Owens owes his seat to the GOP's inability to get its act together, but for the first time he won't be running in an environment that heavily favors the GOP. His district is no worse than it was before, and he has a conservative voting record for a Dem.

      Gibson's district looks weaker for him, but he has the least conservative voting record of any House GOP freshman and may be in a good position to hold it.

      Buerkle is almost certainly toast in a D+3.6 district. Maffei should beat her by at least 10 points.

      Bishop's district is essentially unchanged and he should not be in trouble this year as he withstood the 2010 wave.

      I am guessing that King will run in 2 and Israel in 3. They might both be vulnerable given the amount of new territory they get.

      I think Hayworth is vulnerable in a barely-red seat in a non-2010 environment. It may be worth it for Dems to take a serious run at Reed also as his district went for Obama and has a lot of new territory.

      Hochul is probably out with an R+7 district.

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 09:59:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Gibson (0+ / 0-)

        has an impressive bio, and he's "only" 47.  If he (hypothetically) has the political skills to hold onto a swing district in New York, do you think he might be a future statewide candidate?

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 10:04:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Run Gibson Run!* (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          redrelic17

          *This statement is totally being made because I think that Gibson would be a really awesome statewide candidate, and doesn't have anything at all to do with that TINY possibility that he'd get steamrolled just like every other Republican statewide candidate in New York and had us his swing seat at the same time.

        •  probably (0+ / 0-)

          His military background would make him a better fit for federal office, but it's easier for an out-party candidate to get elected governor than senator.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 10:52:35 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

          I could see him running for senate, but Schumer and Gillibrand tend to dissuade legitimate Republicans from running at all, let along giving up a seat to do so. And I could see him running for governor as a thinking man's Yankee Republican, except the NY GOP is starting to have a lot of trouble with statewide recruiting. They had two very weak candidates for governor in 2010, resulting in the Paladino disaster because Lazio couldn't hold down the base. Wilson and Donovan were actually very plausible candidates (AG/comptroller) in 2010, and even that year and their basic electability wasn't enough to get them over the top - in fact, Donovan didn't even come particularly close.

      •  I think Gibson will have trouble holding it (0+ / 0-)

        Especially in a presidential year.

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

        by Paleo on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 10:06:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Nice work on this (0+ / 0-)

    Not a good map for us at all. But I'll bet Skelos will be delighted with it.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 09:41:02 AM PST

    •  He'll be Minority Leader though (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bfen

      and have to face mid-decade redistricting.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 09:43:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  And why do you say that? (0+ / 0-)

      Ackerman still has a district he can run in, which isn't what Skelos wants at all.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 09:44:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Confused. (0+ / 0-)

    Is Reed in the 23rd then, or the 27th?

  •  Also in 'Cuse.... (0+ / 0-)

    Maffei has his work cut out for him. That should flip back to us, but it will need work!

    •  but... (0+ / 0-)

      Hochel's seat will flip to R. Reddest district in the state now....

      We'll see. The data above is probably a little misleading and lacks trends.

      •  You just have to add trends (0+ / 0-)

        Districts by "blue-shiftedness" (i.e (Obama-National)-(Kerry-National)):

        25    2.100%
        18    1.300%
        14    0.800%
        11    0.300%
        16    0.200%
        21    0.000%
        23    -0.100%
        19    -0.300%
        24    -0.600%
        17    -0.700%
        10    -1.100%
        12    -1.200%
        6    -1.200%
        8    -1.300%
        7    -1.700%
        9    -1.800%
        22    -1.800%
        15    -1.900%
        20    -2.200%
        1    -2.500%
        27    -2.700%
        3    -2.900%
        2    -2.900%
        13    -3.000%
        5    -3.100%
        4    -3.700%
        26    -4.500%
        So most of the districts have only trended modestly, and their swing between 2004 and 2008 was close to the national swing.  I don't know if that adds anything in this case.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 10:01:20 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hochul's district was the reddest (0+ / 0-)

        in the state before, too.

        She's down, but not out.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Wed Mar 07, 2012 at 04:43:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  goddammit. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, BachFan

    Hochul is in the reddest district on the map.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 09:57:16 AM PST

    •  But only a bit worse than her (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      current district, isn't it?

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 10:02:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  true. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17, bfen

        But still.  At least King's district was weakened.  If for some reason he leaves it open or is personally damaged then that could be good.

        I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

        by James Allen on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 10:04:37 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Correct (0+ / 0-)

        And most of the new territory is in Erie County. Red towns, sure, but she was a statewide official (county clerk) in Erie when she ran for Congress. So they know her. I haven't looked yet to see how she performed in those towns in her clerk race(s).

    •  Hopefully she jumps ship to face Reed (0+ / 0-)

      I'd feel pretty good about that one, actually.

      (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

      by TrueBlueDem on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 11:04:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Reed is crazy popular though (0+ / 0-)

        I think his is the throwaway West NY district for Dems.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 12:30:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Since Hochul is sitting in a 44% Obama district (0+ / 0-)

          The two of them should just trade. He'll have a safe seat for life and she'll have a shot at survival.

          (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

          by TrueBlueDem on Wed Mar 07, 2012 at 01:44:28 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Reed's from Corning (0+ / 0-)

            Way down in the Southern Tier. He's not going to move to a GLOW/Erie district. He'll do fine even in a slightly-Obama district, because the only place with a Dem bench is Tompkins/Ithaca, and a Dem from Ithaca will have a really hard time in the rest of that district.

            And I do not feel remotely good about a Hochul run in the Reed district, because then she'll be a Buffalo candidate running in the Tier. Still an outsider.

  •  What are the Chances Turner tries primarying Grimm (0+ / 0-)

    considering he doesn't have anywhere else to run south of 63% Obama and Grimm's ethical baggage?

    •  He might take a shot in the open 6th (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bfen

      Against Ackerman or Lancman.

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

      by Paleo on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 10:18:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It would be tough (0+ / 0-)

      Staten Island likes Staten Islanders. A Brooklyn candidate, however conservative, would struggle, be it in the primary or general. If Grimm's ethical baggage turns out to be a killer, other SI Reps will get in the race...that would be a guy like Turner's best hope - a split SI vote.

  •  Incumbents (0+ / 0-)

    Retain a majority of constituents
    Bishop Grimm Serrano Tonko McCarthy Meeks Buerkle Maloney Hayworth Rangel Velazquez Nadler Clarke Crowley Owens Towns Hanna Reed Israel Hochul

    Those who don't retain a majority:
    Engel, 49%
    King 47% (Israel has more)
    Turner 45%
    Gibson 44%
    Higgins 42%
    Lowey 38%
    Slaughter 38% (will this make her retire?)
    Ackerman 38% (Turner has more, but this is a very Dem friendly district)

    Under this map:
    This would very good for Bishop, as he knows everybody. King would almost certainly run in the 2nd, and Israel could choose the 2nd or 3rd. I would hope that he, of all people, would take one for the team and go for the tossup race against King and let a new Dem run in the 3rd. McCarthy should at least be favored, Meeks, Valazquez, Clarke, Nadler, Maloney, Rangel, Crowley, Serrano and Engel shouldn't be too disappointed. This would save Ackerman (if he can win the primary) and doom Turner. This would make Towns more vulnerable to primary opponents; the same goes for Lowey. Grimm probably won't be the GOP nominee, and I doubt that this 11th would go Dem without him on the ballot. Tonko is happy, as are Slaughter and Higgins if they can win their primaries; Buerkle is doomed. Hayworth, Gibson and Owens are in for fights. Hochul is doomed unless she chooses Slaughter's district. Reed should have no troubles.

    -8.88, -4.21 Why does the most beautiful place in the world (Idaho Panhandle) have to get dumped with thousands of Cali GOP doofuses?

    by Whitty on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 10:12:43 AM PST

  •  That's trouble for Peter King. (0+ / 0-)

      An even partisan index means that he is vulnerable. He has not cultivated a moderate image, and the second district has only 47% of his former territory. Kathy Hochul needs to move east.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 10:19:24 AM PST

  •  As a Cornellian and a Hochul fan (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    This map is disappointing.  But that is what Ithaca gets for being a deep blue oasis in a red sea.

    So is there an estimate on the net seat change?  

    All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-22 (College), WI-05 (Home)

    by glame on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 10:22:36 AM PST

    •  My gut feeling (0+ / 0-)

      The way things are looking right now I'd say 22D/5R give or take.  That works out to a net change of D+1 seat, R-2 seats.  Of course that's mostly due to blowback as the NY GOP just had a very good 2010 election that's not likely to repeat in 2012.  If 2012 turns out to be really bad for the GOP I could see it ending up more like 24D/3R.

  •  Not a bad map (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, WisJohn, R30A

    Every seat except for Hochul's looks like it is winnable by a Democrat. And IMO that is the main thing needed out of an NY map - a high ceiling. Yes, Republicans could win a lot of seats on this map, but Dems could too.

    In an ideal world, the map would have some key different in multiple places (give Hochul an Obama seat, make Grimms seat safe D, shore up the LI seats, don't pack Albany so much, don't pack Buffalo so much, spread the Dems coming out of the Bronx and into Westchester/Upstate more strategically), but all in all, this is something that Dems ought to be able to live with, at least for 2012.

    Then win back the State Senate with court drawn maps, then do a 26-1 / 25-2 or so Democratic gerrymander.

  •  Charlie Cook's updated NY race ratings for NY (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, DCal

    Note that I am translating the district numbers to the new district numbers which are the new equivalent of the old seat.

    Dem-held seats:
    NY-27 (Hochul) - Tossup
    NY-21 (Owens) - Leans D
    NY-01 (Bishop) - Likely D

    Rep-Held Seats:
    NY-25 (Buerkle) - Leans D
    NY-11 (Grimm) - Leans R
    NY-18 (Hayworth) - Leans R
    NY-19 (Gibson) - Leans R
    NY-22 (Hanna) - Likely R
    NY-23 (Reed) - Likely R

    Dismantled seats (old district numbers):
    NY-09 (Turner-R)
    NY-22 (Hinchey-D)

    Not too bad but I think NY-11(Grimm), NY-18(Hayworth) and NY-19(Gibson) are Tossups rather than Leans R.  That's the thing about New York.  There really aren't any "Safe R" districts.  Under this new map I could see Dems having a legit pickup opportunity in any GOP seat in a bad GOP year nationally like we had in 2006 and 2008.  Though in an average election I'd think we'll see something like a 22D/5R breakdown with this map.

    •  I agree, (0+ / 0-)

      Although I think, and hope, that King should be at worst likely R, if not lean R.

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Wed Mar 07, 2012 at 09:52:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  You give us too much credit in NY! (0+ / 0-)

      We have to work incredibly hard to win back the Hayworth and Gibson districts (Grimm may be doing all the work for us). For one thing, we need a candidate against Gibson. I don't think Schreibman and Tyner (both good guys) can beat him in anything less than a landslide year.

  •  2004 data (0+ / 0-)

    Where did you get the Kerry/Bush numbers?

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