This diary continues a series that envisions a House of Representatives elected in a similar manner to the House of Commons in Canada. Representatives are elected from ridings with an average size of 110,000 (similar to Canada), that bear names instead of numbers. These ridings tend to follow communities of interest much more than our House districts do, so all maps in this series will be commission-style COI maps. Apportionment will be according to US rules, but with 2807 ridings to be divided between the 50 states and DC (I regard DC disenfranchisement as shameful). I am using the VRA, but not to the extent of gross violations of COI or compactness. All else being equal, I will maximize the number of competitive ridings.
Wisconsin is entitled to 52 ridings under this system compared to its current 8. For each riding, I am including voting age population percentages for all groups at or above 5%, as well as election data and a PVI measure using both 2008 and 2010 Average results, normalized to Wisconsin's Cook PVI of D+2. Both parties in Wisconsin are quite strong and fairly well aligned with their national counterparts, so race ratings should follow the PVI in most cases. Riding colors are derived from DRA, so they are not strictly accurate.
Superior- Ashland (Blue)
Population: 92.5% White, Deviation -131
Political: 62.0% Obama, 54.7% Dem, D+8, Safe D
Sean Duffy (R-WI-07) is from Ashland, but he would not run here.
Population: 96.4% White, Deviation -315
Political: 49.0% Obama, 38.9% Dem, R+6, Likely R
Sean Duffy (R-WI-07) probably runs in this exurban riding.
River Falls-Menomonie (Dark Magenta)
Population: 96% White, Deviation +86
Political: 54.3% Obama, 43.5% Dem, R+1, Swing
Rice Lake-Ladysmith-Medford (Red)
Population: 94.6% White, Deviation +80
Political: 53.5% Obama, 43.3% Dem, R+2, Swing
Chippewa Falls (Gold)
Population: 95.7% White, Deviation -429
Political: 53.7% Obama, 40.6% Dem, R+3, Lean R
WI-07 candidate Pat Kreitlow (D-Chippewa Falls) lives here, but would most likely run in Eau Claire instead.
Eau Claire (Teal)
Population:94.0% White, Deviation +138
Political: 60.8% Obama, 50.5% Dem, D+6, Likely D
Rhinelander-Marinette (Dark Gray)
Population: 94.7% White , Deviation -133
Political: 53.3% Obama, 42.3% Dem, R+2, Swing
This seat would probably be Likely D for moderate State Sen. Jim Holperin (D-Conover).
Merrill-Shawano (Slate Blue)
Population: 91.8% White, 5.5% Native, Deviation +80
Political: 53.7% Obama, 40.8% Dem, R+3, Lean R
Population: 92.3% White, Deviation -836
Political: 55.0% Obama, 43.5% Dem, R+1, Swing
Stevens Point-Wisconsin Rapids (Deep Pink)
Population: 94.6% White, Deviation -395
Political: 62.1% Obama, 50.7% Barrett, D+6, Likely D
Our 2010 WI-07 candidate, State Sen. Julie Lassa (D-Stevens Point), could easily win this riding, even in 2010.
Population: 93.9% White, Deviation -395
Political: 50.4% Obama, 37.2% Dem, R+6, Likely R
Sturgeon Bay- Kewaunee (Cornflower Blue)
Population: 87.1% White, 7.9% Hispanic, Deviation +494
Political: 58.7% Obama, 47.1% Dem, D+3, Lean D
Waupaca-Wautoma (Dark Salmon)
Population: 95.8% White, Deviation -194
Political: 49.4% Obama, 38.3% Dem, R+6, Likely R
Green Bay- De Pere (Olive)
Population: 87.5% White, Deviation -4
Political: 57.0% Obama, 46.2% Dem, D+2, Swing
WI-08 candidate Jamie Wall (D-Green Bay) lives here, and would stand a good chance of winning.
Bellevue-Kakauna (Dark Orange)
Population: 93.2% White, Deviation +178
Political: 54.9% Obama, 43.5% Dem, R+1, Swing
Population: 92.3% White, Deviation +214
Political: 57.1% Obama, 45.7% Dem, D+1, Swing
Neenah-Oshkosh (Dark Slate Blue)
Population: 93.2% White, Deviation +594
Political: 57.4% Obama, 46.6% Dem, D+2, Swing
Population:95.0% White, Deviation -126
Political: 52.1% Obama, 39.1% Dem, R+4, Lean R
Congressman Reid Ribble (R-WI-08) lives here, and shouldn’t have much trouble winning this riding.
East Central Wisconsin
Fon du Lac-Green Lake (Yellow Green)
Population: 93.9% White, Deviation -542
Political: 45.2% Obama, 34.5% Dem, R+10, Safe R
Congressman Tom Petri (R-WI-06) lives here.
Population: 90.2% White, Deviation -459
Political: 53.9% Obama, 39.7% Walker, R+3, Lean R
Horicon-West Bend (Maroon)
Population: 94.5% White, Deviation -497
Political: 37.5% Obama, 26.2% Dem, R+18, Safe R
Port Washington-Cedarburg (Sienna)
Population: 96.7% White, Deviation +549
Political: 37.5% Obama, 29.3% Dem, R+17, Safe R
Hartford-Menominee Falls (Aquamarine)
Population: 94.5% White, Deviation -373
Political: 35.9% Obama, 26.7% Dem, R+19, Safe R
US Rep. Sensenbrenner (R-WI-05) is honored with the second most Republican riding in the state.
Black River Falls-Marshfield (Indigo)
Population: 94.7% White, Deviation +221
Political: 58.5% Obama, 45.5% Dem, D+2, Swing
State Senator (and WI-Gov candidate) Kathleen Vinehout lives here, and would be a very strong candidate for this seat.
La Crosse (Pale Violet Red)
Population: 93.0% White, Deviation +490
Political: 62.3% Obama, 50.5% Dem, D+6, Likely D
Ron Kind (D-WI-03) lives here, and this seat is completely safe for him.
Population: 93.8% White, Deviation +656
Political: 55.1% Obama, 42.8% Dem, R+1, Swing
Viroqua-Richland Center-Dells (Spring Green)
Population: 96.1% White, Deviation -332
Political: 61.4% Obama, 49.6% Dem, D+5, Likely D
If State Sen. Dale Schultz (R-Richland Center) really wants to be a freshman under Boehner, he could make this seat Swing.
Population: 96.7% White, Deviation +512
Political: 62.8% Obama, 49.4% Dem, D+6, Likely D
South Central Wisconsin/Madison
Baraboo-Portage-Beaver Dam (Dark Sea Green)
Population: 94.0% White, Deviation -255
Political: 56.7% Obama, 46.7% Dem, D+2, Swing
Mount Horeb-Verona-Fitchburg (Light Coral)
Population: 90.3% White, Deviation +492
Political: 67.4% Obama, 60.6% Dem, D+14, Safe D
Middleton-Waunakee-West Madison (Khaki)
Population: 84.2% White , 6.7% Asian, Deviation -361
Political: 72.9% Obama, 69.6% Dem, D+21, Safe D
This is my home riding, FWIW.
Isthmus-South Madison (Orange Red)
Population: 78.1% White, 6.0% Black, 6.6% Hispanic, 7.0% Asian, Deviation +453
Politcal: 85.3% Obama, 84.1% Dem, D+35, Safe D
WI-02 candidate Mark Pocan (D-Madison) lives in this riding, which is an excellent fit for him. So does Tammy Baldwin (D-WI-02), but she’s running for Senate (Go Tammy!).
Sun Prairie-De Forest (Royal Blue)
Population: 85.8% White, 5.0% Black, Deviation +697
Political: 68.5% Obama, 61.0% Dem, D+15, Safe D
WI-02 candidate Kelda Roys (D-Madison) lives in this riding, so we won’t have to choose between her and Pocan.
Monona-Stoughton-Fort Atkinson (Lime Green)
Population: 92.2% White, Deviation -638
Political: 66.1% Obama, 59.9% Dem, D+13, Safe D
Janesville (Dark Orchid)
Population: 93.6% White, Deviation -4
Political: 65.3% Obama, 55.1% Dem, D+10, Safe D
Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI-01) lives here, but wouldn’t even consider running here. The “Path to Prosperity” now includes him finding redder pastures.
Population: 82.2% White, 5.6% Black, 10.0% Hispanic, Deviation +916
Political: 57.3% Obama, 44.2% Dem, D+1, Swing
Watertown-Oconomowoc (Dodger Blue)
Population: 95.2% White, Deviation -279
Political: 37.5% Obama, 27.5% Dem, R+17, Safe R
Brookfield-Peewaukee (Medium Aquamarine)
Population: 93.5% White, Deviation +29
Political: 34.4% Obama, 26.8% Dem, R+19, Safe R
The most Republican riding in the state, especially when you include the 14,000 votes that Kathy Nickolaus sat on for two days…
Population: 87.4% White, 6.9% Hispanic, Deviation +54
Political: 43.3% Obama, 33.4% Dem, R+12, Safe R
Mukwonago-Lake Geneva (Firebrick)
Population: 94.2% White, Deviation -402
Political: 38.9% Obama, 28.2% Dem, R+16, Safe R
Paul Ryan probably moves to Walworth County and runs here. This is really his base, after all.
Wauwatosa-West Milwaukee (Light Steel Blue)
Population: 84.0% White, 7.2% Hispanic, Deviation +8
Political: 54.5% Obama, 48.2% Dem, D+1, Swing
West Allis-Greenfield (Lawn Green)
Population: 87.3% White, 6.1% Hispanic, Deviation -147
Political: 50.9% Obama, 42.5% Dem, R+3, Lean R
Oak Creek-Franklin-Muskego (Magenta)
Population: 89.1% White, Deviation -299
Political: 41.8% Obama, 33.1% Dem, R+13, Safe R
Whitefish Bay-Shorewood (Medium Violet Red)
Population: 83.2% White, 7.4% Black, Deviation +56
Political: 70.1% Obama, 66.2% Dem, D+18, Safe D
Silver Spring (Turquoise)
Population: 53.7% Black, 35.1% White, 5.3% Asian, Deviation -193
Political: 80.3% Obama, 75.6% Dem, D+28, Safe D, Black pickup
North Milwaukee (Tomato)
Population: 67.0% Black, 26.3% White, Deviation +217
Political: 86.3% Obama, 83.2% Dem, D+35, Safe D, Black hold
Congresswoman Gwen Moore (D-WI-04) lives here.
Midtown (Dim Gray)
Population: 64.6% Black, 25.0% White, Deviation +57
Political: 90.6% Obama, 89.1% Dem, D+40, Safe D, Black pickup
South Central Milwaukee (Sandy Brown)
Population: 58.3% Hispanic, 27.3% White, 9.4% Black, Deviation -28
Political: 78.8% Obama, 72.0% Dem, D+25, Safe D, Hispanic pickup
South Milwaukee (Indian Red)
Population: 84.3% White, 9.8% Hispanic, Deviation +51
Political: 58.8% Obama, 53.4% Dem, D+6, Likely D
Burlington-Sturtevant (Powder Blue)
Population: 89.4% White, Deviation +258
Political: 47.7% Obama, 36.9% Dem, R+8, Likely R
Racine (Saddle Brown)
Population:67.9% White, 15.7% Black, 13.6% Hispanic, Deviation +11
Political: 63.7% Obama, 54.1% Dem, D+9, Safe D
Kenosha (Olive Drab)
Population: 78.7% White, 7.0% Black, 11.3% Hispanic, Deviation -195
Political: 64.0% Obama, 53.8% Dem, D+9, Safe D
WI-01 candidate Rob Zerban (D-Kenosha) lives here. He doesn’t get to beat Paul Ryan, but he gets a much better shot at going to Washington.
All in all, this is a 21-18-13 map, though a number of seats on both sides could fall in a wave or due to unusual circumstances. Combined with Hoosier D42's states, Oregon,, and Idaho, there are now 158 ridings, with totalled ratings of 71-63-24. Only 2649 ridings remain!