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This diary continues a series that envisions a House of Representatives elected in a similar manner to the House of Commons in Canada. Representatives are elected from ridings with an average size of 110,000 (similar to Canada), that bear names instead of numbers. These ridings tend to follow communities of interest much more than our House districts do, so all maps in this series will be commission-style COI maps. Apportionment will be according to US rules, but with 2807 ridings to be divided between the 50 states and DC (I regard DC disenfranchisement as shameful). I am using the VRA, but not to the extent of gross violations of COI or compactness. All else being equal, I will maximize the number of competitive ridings.

Wisconsin is entitled to 52 ridings under this system compared to its current 8. For each riding, I am including voting age population percentages for all groups at or above 5%, as well as election data and a PVI measure using both 2008 and 2010 Average results, normalized to Wisconsin's Cook PVI of D+2. Both parties in Wisconsin are quite strong and fairly well aligned with their national counterparts, so race ratings should follow the PVI in most cases. Riding colors are derived from DRA, so they are not strictly accurate.

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Statewide View

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Northwestern Wisconsin

Superior- Ashland (Blue)

Population: 92.5% White, Deviation -131
Political: 62.0% Obama, 54.7% Dem, D+8, Safe D

Sean Duffy (R-WI-07) is from Ashland, but he would not run here.

Hudson-Osceola (Green)

Population: 96.4% White, Deviation -315
Political: 49.0% Obama, 38.9% Dem, R+6, Likely R

Sean Duffy (R-WI-07) probably runs in this exurban riding.

River Falls-Menomonie (Dark Magenta)

Population: 96% White, Deviation +86
Political: 54.3% Obama, 43.5% Dem, R+1, Swing

Rice Lake-Ladysmith-Medford (Red)

Population: 94.6% White, Deviation +80
Political: 53.5% Obama, 43.3% Dem, R+2, Swing

Chippewa Falls (Gold)

Population: 95.7% White, Deviation -429
Political: 53.7% Obama, 40.6% Dem, R+3, Lean R

WI-07 candidate Pat Kreitlow  (D-Chippewa Falls) lives here, but would most likely run in Eau Claire instead.

Eau Claire (Teal)

Population:94.0% White, Deviation +138
Political: 60.8% Obama, 50.5% Dem, D+6, Likely D

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Northeastern Wisconsin

Rhinelander-Marinette (Dark Gray)

Population: 94.7% White , Deviation -133
Political: 53.3% Obama, 42.3% Dem, R+2, Swing

This seat would probably be Likely D for moderate State Sen.  Jim Holperin (D-Conover).

Merrill-Shawano (Slate Blue)

Population: 91.8% White, 5.5% Native, Deviation +80
Political: 53.7% Obama, 40.8% Dem, R+3, Lean R

Wausau (Cyan)

Population: 92.3% White, Deviation -836
Political: 55.0% Obama, 43.5% Dem, R+1, Swing

Stevens Point-Wisconsin Rapids (Deep Pink)

Population: 94.6% White, Deviation -395
Political: 62.1% Obama, 50.7% Barrett, D+6, Likely D

Our 2010 WI-07 candidate, State Sen. Julie Lassa (D-Stevens Point), could easily win this riding, even in 2010.

Oconto-Howard (Chartreuse)

Population: 93.9% White, Deviation -395
Political: 50.4% Obama, 37.2% Dem, R+6, Likely R

Sturgeon Bay- Kewaunee (Cornflower Blue)

Population: 87.1% White, 7.9% Hispanic, Deviation +494
Political: 58.7% Obama, 47.1% Dem, D+3, Lean D

Waupaca-Wautoma (Dark Salmon)

Population: 95.8% White, Deviation -194
Political: 49.4% Obama, 38.3% Dem, R+6, Likely R

Green Bay- De Pere (Olive)

Population: 87.5% White, Deviation -4
Political: 57.0% Obama, 46.2% Dem, D+2, Swing

WI-08 candidate Jamie Wall (D-Green Bay) lives here, and would stand a good chance of winning.

Bellevue-Kakauna (Dark Orange)

Population: 93.2% White, Deviation +178
Political: 54.9% Obama, 43.5% Dem, R+1, Swing

Appleton-Menasha (Lime)

Population: 92.3% White, Deviation +214
Political: 57.1% Obama, 45.7% Dem, D+1, Swing

Neenah-Oshkosh (Dark Slate Blue)

Population: 93.2% White, Deviation +594
Political: 57.4% Obama, 46.6% Dem, D+2, Swing

Manitowoc-Chilton (Yellow)

Population:95.0% White, Deviation -126
Political:  52.1% Obama, 39.1% Dem, R+4, Lean R

Congressman Reid Ribble (R-WI-08) lives here, and shouldn’t have much trouble winning this riding.

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East Central Wisconsin

Fon du Lac-Green Lake (Yellow Green)

Population: 93.9% White, Deviation -542
Political: 45.2% Obama, 34.5% Dem, R+10, Safe R

Congressman Tom Petri (R-WI-06) lives here.

Sheboygan (Pink)

Population: 90.2% White, Deviation -459
Political: 53.9% Obama, 39.7% Walker, R+3, Lean R

Horicon-West Bend (Maroon)

Population: 94.5% White, Deviation -497
Political:  37.5% Obama, 26.2% Dem, R+18, Safe R

Port Washington-Cedarburg (Sienna)

Population: 96.7% White, Deviation +549
Political: 37.5% Obama, 29.3% Dem, R+17, Safe R

Hartford-Menominee Falls (Aquamarine)

Population: 94.5% White, Deviation -373
Political:  35.9% Obama, 26.7% Dem, R+19, Safe R

US Rep. Sensenbrenner (R-WI-05) is honored with the second most Republican riding in the state.

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Southwestern Wisconsin

Black River Falls-Marshfield (Indigo)

Population: 94.7% White, Deviation +221
Political: 58.5% Obama, 45.5% Dem, D+2, Swing

State Senator (and WI-Gov candidate) Kathleen Vinehout lives here, and would be a very strong candidate for this seat.

La Crosse (Pale Violet Red)

Population: 93.0% White, Deviation +490
Political: 62.3% Obama, 50.5% Dem, D+6, Likely D

Ron Kind (D-WI-03) lives here, and this seat is completely safe for him.

Sparta-Tomah-Mauston  (Gray)

Population: 93.8% White, Deviation +656
Political: 55.1% Obama, 42.8% Dem, R+1, Swing

Viroqua-Richland Center-Dells (Spring Green)

Population: 96.1% White, Deviation -332
Political: 61.4% Obama, 49.6% Dem, D+5, Likely D

If State Sen. Dale Schultz (R-Richland Center) really wants to be a freshman under Boehner, he could make this seat Swing.

Platteville-Dodgeville-Monroe (Plum)

Population: 96.7% White, Deviation +512
Political: 62.8% Obama, 49.4% Dem, D+6, Likely D

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South Central Wisconsin/Madison

Baraboo-Portage-Beaver Dam (Dark Sea Green)

Population: 94.0% White, Deviation -255
Political: 56.7% Obama, 46.7% Dem, D+2, Swing

Mount Horeb-Verona-Fitchburg (Light Coral)

Population: 90.3% White, Deviation +492
Political: 67.4% Obama, 60.6% Dem, D+14, Safe D

Middleton-Waunakee-West Madison (Khaki)

Population: 84.2% White , 6.7% Asian, Deviation -361
 Political: 72.9% Obama, 69.6% Dem, D+21, Safe D

This is my home riding, FWIW.

Isthmus-South Madison (Orange Red)

Population: 78.1% White, 6.0% Black, 6.6% Hispanic, 7.0% Asian, Deviation +453
Politcal: 85.3% Obama, 84.1% Dem, D+35, Safe D

WI-02 candidate Mark Pocan (D-Madison) lives in this riding, which is an excellent fit for him. So does Tammy Baldwin (D-WI-02), but she’s running for Senate (Go Tammy!).

Sun Prairie-De Forest (Royal Blue)

Population: 85.8% White, 5.0% Black, Deviation +697
Political: 68.5% Obama, 61.0% Dem, D+15, Safe D

WI-02 candidate Kelda Roys (D-Madison) lives in this riding, so we won’t have to choose between her and Pocan.

Monona-Stoughton-Fort Atkinson (Lime Green)

Population: 92.2% White, Deviation -638
Political: 66.1% Obama, 59.9% Dem, D+13, Safe D

Janesville (Dark Orchid)

Population: 93.6% White, Deviation -4
Political: 65.3% Obama, 55.1% Dem, D+10, Safe D

Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI-01) lives here, but wouldn’t even consider running here. The “Path to Prosperity” now includes him finding redder pastures.

Beloit-Whitewater (Orange)

Population: 82.2% White, 5.6% Black, 10.0% Hispanic, Deviation +916
Political: 57.3% Obama, 44.2% Dem, D+1, Swing

Watertown-Oconomowoc (Dodger Blue)

Population: 95.2% White, Deviation -279
Political:  37.5% Obama, 27.5% Dem, R+17, Safe R

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Southeastern Wisconsin/Milwaukee

Brookfield-Peewaukee (Medium Aquamarine)

Population: 93.5% White, Deviation +29
Political: 34.4% Obama, 26.8% Dem, R+19, Safe R

The most Republican riding in the state, especially when you include the 14,000 votes that Kathy Nickolaus sat on for two days…

Waukesha (Moccasin)

Population: 87.4% White, 6.9% Hispanic, Deviation +54
Political: 43.3% Obama, 33.4% Dem, R+12, Safe R

Mukwonago-Lake Geneva (Firebrick)

Population: 94.2% White, Deviation -402
Political: 38.9% Obama, 28.2% Dem, R+16, Safe R

Paul Ryan probably moves to Walworth County and runs here. This is really his base, after all.

Wauwatosa-West Milwaukee (Light Steel Blue)

Population: 84.0% White, 7.2% Hispanic, Deviation +8
Political: 54.5% Obama, 48.2% Dem, D+1, Swing

West Allis-Greenfield (Lawn Green)

Population: 87.3% White, 6.1% Hispanic, Deviation -147
Political: 50.9% Obama, 42.5% Dem, R+3, Lean R

Oak Creek-Franklin-Muskego (Magenta)

Population: 89.1% White, Deviation -299
Political: 41.8% Obama, 33.1% Dem, R+13, Safe R

Whitefish Bay-Shorewood (Medium Violet Red)

Population: 83.2% White, 7.4% Black, Deviation +56
Political: 70.1% Obama, 66.2% Dem, D+18, Safe D

Silver Spring (Turquoise)

Population: 53.7% Black, 35.1% White, 5.3% Asian, Deviation -193
Political: 80.3% Obama, 75.6% Dem, D+28, Safe D, Black pickup

North Milwaukee (Tomato)

Population: 67.0% Black, 26.3% White, Deviation +217
Political: 86.3% Obama, 83.2% Dem, D+35, Safe D, Black hold

Congresswoman Gwen Moore (D-WI-04) lives here.

Midtown (Dim Gray)

Population: 64.6% Black, 25.0% White, Deviation +57
Political: 90.6% Obama, 89.1% Dem, D+40, Safe D, Black pickup

South Central Milwaukee (Sandy Brown)

Population: 58.3% Hispanic, 27.3% White, 9.4% Black, Deviation -28
Political: 78.8% Obama, 72.0% Dem, D+25, Safe D, Hispanic pickup

South Milwaukee (Indian Red)

Population: 84.3% White, 9.8% Hispanic, Deviation +51
Political: 58.8% Obama, 53.4% Dem, D+6, Likely D

Burlington-Sturtevant (Powder Blue)

Population: 89.4% White, Deviation +258
Political: 47.7% Obama, 36.9% Dem, R+8, Likely R

Racine (Saddle Brown)

Population:67.9% White, 15.7% Black, 13.6% Hispanic, Deviation +11
Political: 63.7% Obama, 54.1% Dem, D+9, Safe D

Kenosha (Olive Drab)

Population: 78.7% White, 7.0% Black, 11.3% Hispanic, Deviation -195
Political: 64.0% Obama, 53.8% Dem, D+9, Safe D

WI-01 candidate Rob Zerban (D-Kenosha) lives here. He doesn’t get to beat Paul Ryan, but he gets a much better shot at going to Washington.

All in all, this is a 21-18-13 map, though a number of seats on both sides could fall in a wave or due to unusual circumstances. Combined with Hoosier D42's states, Oregon,, and Idaho, there are now 158 ridings, with totalled ratings of 71-63-24. Only 2649 ridings remain!

Poll

Which state should I diary next?

45%16 votes
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5%2 votes

| 35 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

    by fearlessfred14 on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 06:54:02 PM PST

  •  I don't think so (0+ / 0-)

    The problem arises because as a cultural matter, Americans want their local representative to be a local guy. In the Canadian system, which mirrors the British system with which I'm far more familiar, the party will choose the candidate for the riding or constituency based on how safe the seat is. The prime ministers in both Britain and Canada are both from the strongest Tory seats. But suppose the most capable MP, the one you want as prime minister, is from a marginal constituency. You'd end up shifting people around and Americans don't like that. You'd never have Harry Reid, for instance, running in a purple almost red state like Nevada. You'd move him to California someplace. And they never would have let Tom Daschle stay in South Dakota. It'd be nice to still have him there, representing Milwaukee's very Democratic north side, but it'd be hard to convince people there that a rural state guy like Daschle understands their lives.

    Also, because we have Federalism (I know the Canadians do too) you wouldn't need to have ridings that small. Some of the ones in Milwaukee County, where I live, are only a mile in width. State senators and state assemblypersons can manage a local district that small, but it seems pointless to do that in Washington.

    Anyway, I'm in favor of some kind of reform in Washington, as many of us are. They could start by getting rid of the Citizens United mess, and conclude by getting rid of the electoral college. But adopting the Westminster model? Might be a step beyond what we could stomach.

    It's a fun academic exercise though. Kudos.

    The Bush Family: 0 for 4 in Wisconsin

    by Korkenzieher on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 07:20:33 PM PST

  •  I agree that Canadians are far brighter than we (0+ / 0-)

    are. Far brighter than we'll ever be? I'd really like to see that one shake out in the next few years, so that there is still time for us to save our butts.

    But please recognize one thing, None of this can be done legislatively. It's at the Constitutional level or nothing. And most of us, for whatever reason, are just to afraid to think that grandly.

    More power to you!

    There can be no protection locally if we're content to ignore the fact that there are no controls globally.

    by oldpotsmuggler on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 07:50:15 PM PST

  •  Interesting map (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fearlessfred14

    I some places I feel you got the CoI better than the one I did a ways back, but I don't really like what you did with the west Milwaukee County suburbs. I also found a couple of your rating a bit wonky ( for example 57.3% Obama is swing? Unless you were pricing in Amy Loudenbeck running there, that's lean / likely D), but I won't do a comprehensive nitpick on that.

    •  good effort overall, though. (0+ / 0-)
    •  I was a bit unsure of the west suburbs myself (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem

      I tried to do it without splitting the cities, but yours looks much better. As for what I did with ratings, I balanced the 2008 and 2010 percentages and normalized so the state as a whole would be D+2. I considered anything within 2 points of even to be Swing, anything between 2 and 4 to be Lean, and anything between 4 and 8 to be Likely.

      Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

      by fearlessfred14 on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 08:32:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sean Duffy (0+ / 0-)

    He moved to Weston, Wisconsin.

    18. R. IL-10. Justin Amash-ite. “Freedom granted only when it is known beforehand that its effects will be beneficial is not freedom.”- F.A. Hayek

    by IllinoyedR on Sat Mar 10, 2012 at 08:12:37 AM PST

    •  Right you are (0+ / 0-)

      So he would stay put and run in Wausau, where he's probably got a better than even chance thanks to incumbency and the best Dem candidate running for State Senate instead. Correction coming shortly.

      Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

      by fearlessfred14 on Sat Mar 10, 2012 at 09:57:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  true (0+ / 0-)

      He and his family also enjoy residency in Marathon County with me.  (Hopefully, he will have to move back up north after the November elections.)

      Citizen from WI-07 (Marathon County)

      by CentralWIGuy on Sat Mar 10, 2012 at 09:59:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Formula for how many ridings per state? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fearlessfred14

    I think I want to do NJ or NY, but not sure how many would go in each.

    How does homeopathy work?| Self-appointed DKE Hudson River Crossings Caucus Chair (NJ-10, college; NJ-05, home & voting (2.5 blocks from NJ-09))

    by gabjoh on Sat Mar 10, 2012 at 03:51:32 PM PST

    •  NJ gets 80 ridings, NY gets 176 (0+ / 0-)

      As determined via the Huntington-Hill method, with 2807 ridings in total. I'm using resident populations only (not overseas military since those are harder to get), and remember to include DC and its five ridings. Btw, I do have a New York map, but if you really want to, you can probably draw a much better one COI-wise. Are you going to do so?

      Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

      by fearlessfred14 on Sat Mar 10, 2012 at 05:45:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks! (0+ / 0-)

    Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, One in ONE MILLION that recalled Scott Walker!!!!

    by WisJohn on Sun Mar 18, 2012 at 08:26:49 PM PDT

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