Public Policy Polling (
PDF). March 10-11, 2012. Alabama and Mississippi Republican primary voters. ±4.0% in Alabama. ±3.8% in Mississippi. No trendlines.
Alabama
Romney: 31
Gingrich: 30
Santorum: 29
Paul: 8
Mississippi
Gingrich: 33
Romney: 31
Santorum: 27
Paul: 7
Although Mitt Romney leads Alabama and is second in Mississippi, Republicans in both states like Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum more than Romney:
Net favorable rating, Alabama (fav/unfav):
Santorum: +32 (63/31)
Gingrich: +26 (58/32)
Romney: +13 (53/40)
Net favorable rating, Mississippi (fav/unfav):
Gingrich: +33 (62/29)
Santorum: +32 (60/28)
Romney: +10 (51/41)
If Newt Gingrich weren't in the race, the dynamics of the campaign would be totally different—Santorum would have more media coverage and wouldn't have to deal with attacks from both Gingrich and Romney. That caveat said, Republican primary voters in both states said they would back Santorum over Romney by the slimmest of margins:
Alabama hypothetical without Gingrich (change from w/Gingrich):
Santorum: 43 (+14)
Romney: 40 (+9)
Paul: 12 (+4)
Not sure: 6 (+4)
Mississippi hypothetical without Gingrich (change from w/Gingrich):
Santorum: 41 (+14)
Romney: 38 (+7)
Paul: 11 (+4)
Not sure: 10 (+8)
Despite the low undecided vote, about one-quarter of primary voters in each state say they could change their mind. Alabama will send 47 delegates to the Republican convention and Mississippi will send 37.
Hawaii also votes on Tuesday, but as Republicans have repeatedly made clear, Hawaii might as well be in Kenya for all they are concerned.