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If you live in Central/Eastern Texas it would be advisable to keep a weather radio close and an eye to the sky as the TorCon Index has been set at a 7 for central TX.
 

Developed by Dr. Greg Forbes, (Find him on Facebook) The Weather Channel's severe weather expert, the TOR:CON index is an estimate of the likelihood of tornado activity within a given time period.

The TOR:CON values range from 0 to 10. A value of 4 means that there is about a 40% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location in the specified area of severe thunderstorm activity. This also means that there is a 60% chance that a tornado will NOT occur.

If I am not mistaken this is the highest the TorCon in Texas has been since around the time of last years super outbreak.

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Monday March 19
AR northwest, west-central - 4
IA west - 3
IA central - 2 to 3
KS east half - 4
MN southwest - 3
MO west, central - 4
ND extreme southeast - 2 to 3
NE east - 3
OK east - 6
OK central  - 4
SD east - 3
TX central - 7
TX southeast night - 6
Other areas - less than 2

Originally posted to LieparDestin on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 01:16 PM PDT.

Also republished by TexKos-Messing with Texas with Nothing but Love for Texans.

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Comment Preferences

  •  No severe weather in Dallas (23+ / 0-)

    at the moment, but this wind just wont let up!

    War crimes will be prosecuted. War criminals will be punished. And it will be no defense to say, "I was just following orders." G.W Bush

    by LieparDestin on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 01:16:48 PM PDT

  •  Thanks for the update (3+ / 0-)

    We're also under a flash flood watch, with 2-5 inches of rain expected overall (and no, the floods are NOT expected to end the drought).  

    Things are nice at the moment, though.  

    "How did you go bankrupt?" "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly." - Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises.

    by weasel on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 01:56:41 PM PDT

  •  It's that eerie (5+ / 0-)

    calm before the storm -- if by calm you mean high winds -- in Fort Worth right now. The sun is still out, but it suddenly got very hot and humid, with that ominous sense you get right before all hell breaks loose. According to the radar, it's moving slowly but surely (with the "slowly" part assuring it'll dump lots of rain).

    I hope my leaky roof holds up.

  •  It's already begun, and I agree it may be a (5+ / 0-)

    serious outbreak this evening and into tomorrow.
    Storm Prediction Center

    Tornado Watch 85
    (and likely many more TW's to come tonight)

    Austin/San Antonio, TX Weather Forecast Office

    And since this long, large frontal system is moving ESE, in all likelihood it will soon affect San Antonio, Austin, Corpus Christi, maybe to Houston. I'm battening the hatches down around here way SE of SA.

    Tornado Warning
    SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
    409 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

    TXC267-435-192130-
    O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120319T2130Z
    KIMBLE TX-SUTTON TX-
    409 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN SUTTON AND SOUTHWESTERN KIMBLE COUNTIES...

    AT 407 PM CDT... THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF I-10 NEAR THE SUTTON-KIMBLE COUNTY LINE...OR 27
    MILES SOUTHEAST OF SONORA...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

      STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
      DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS.
      LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. HAIL
      DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

      WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
      OVERTURNED VEHICLES...
      DAMAGE TO TREES...SOME MAY BE UPROOTED...
      DAMAGE TO HOMES...MAY DESTROY MANUFACTURED HOMES...
      DENTED VEHICLES...
      MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE...
      MAY BREAK WINDOWS ON VEHICLES AND HOMES...
      MAY INJURE PEOPLE...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK LEFT UNPROTECTED...
      LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...

    THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
      I-10 NEAR THE SUTTON-KIMBLE COUNTY LINE BY 420 PM CDT...

    THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 422 AND 432.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
    FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

    &&

    LAT...LON 3029 10038 3043 10042 3051 10009 3030 9997
    TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 248DEG 44KT 3036 10025

    $$

    "Double, double, toile and trouble; Fire burne, and Cauldron bubble... By the pricking of my Thumbes, Something wicked this way comes": Republicans Willkommen auf das Vierte Reich! Sie Angelegenheit nicht mehr.

    by Bluefin on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 02:52:42 PM PDT

  •  Republished to TexKos (2+ / 0-)

    'cause we gotta stick together when the Lone Star State skies get weird.

    Some drink deeply from the river of knowledge. Others only gargle. -- Woody Allen

    by cassandracarolina on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 05:44:51 PM PDT

  •  Just hitting San Antonio (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LieparDestin

    Lots of looong thunder coming from the ?  NW ?  Pup dogs are starting to pant and pace.  I secured little items from the yard and put my car in the garage...  Charging up the essentials.  Not sure why this is scaring me so, maybe the barometric pressure is unsettling my primate intestines.  Feeling a dreadful impendingness here in NE San Antonio.

    •  Except for that tornado or two by Devine, (2+ / 0-)

       the heavy cell stuff just died as it hit the city, kind of odd. Nothing left but outflow boundaries now locally.
      But there is another longer squall line 80-100 miles to the West moving this way, it stretches from Eagle Pass to Waco. Look for that round to come through at about ~1AM. That one is the main frontal boundary.
      After all this it should be a very good weather week (another one, heh).
      My dumb barn cats lose their bearings with bad storms and sometimes disappear/get lost for days afterwards.

      "Double, double, toile and trouble; Fire burne, and Cauldron bubble... By the pricking of my Thumbes, Something wicked this way comes": Republicans Willkommen auf das Vierte Reich! Sie Angelegenheit nicht mehr.

      by Bluefin on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 08:03:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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