Rep. Chris Murphy
Quinnipiac. 3/14-19. Registered voters. MoE ±2.4% (±3.9% for Democratic sample, ±4.7% for Republican sample). (
9/8-13 results):
Chris Murphy (D): 52 (49)
Linda McMahon (R): 37 (38)
Undecided: 9 (11)
Chris Murphy (D): 41 (43)
Chris Shays (R): 40 (37)
Undecided: 17 (17)
Susan Bysiewicz (D): 49 (46)
Linda McMahon (R): 39 (38)
Undecided: 9 (12)
Susan Bysiewicz (D): 42 (40)
Chris Shays (R): 43 (42)
Undecided: 13 (16)
William Tong (D): 39 (--)
Linda McMahon (R): 43 (--)
Undecided: 14 (--)
William Tong (D): 25 (--)
Chris Shays (R): 50 (--)
Undecided: 21 (--)
Connecticut is one of those states that lends itself clearly to a hierarchy of electability, and it goes a little something like Rep. Chris Murphy (D, with 40/15 favorables) > ex-Rep. Chris Shays (R, 47/13) > ex-SoS Susan Bysiewicz (D, 39/27) > wrestling magnate Linda McMahon (R, 40/44) > Joe Lieberman-allied state Rep. William Tong (D, 10/5). That's in full effect in Quinnipiac's new poll of the race, which sees Murphy and Bysiewicz solidly beating McMahon (who most voters seem to remember with distaste from her 2010 campaign and its nonstop deluge of ads), Murphy and Bysiewicz in close races with the more moderate Shays, and Tong simply not a factor thanks to a name rec deficit.
Chris Murphy (D): 37 (36)
Susan Bysiewicz (D): 25 (26)
William Tong (D): 4 (1)
Undecided: 29 (35)
Linda McMahon (R): 51 (50)
Chris Shays (R): 42 (35)
Undecided: 6 (12)
Fortunately for the Dems, it looks like their likeliest GOP opponent will be McMahon, rather than Shays (though it's worth noting that Shays has improved his position vis-a-vis McMahon in addition to in the general... which seems odd, since I haven't heard of him doing anything lately to raise his profile). Shays' long-earned goodwill, thanks to several decades representing CT-04, still seems to have a lot of value. But some of that ought to vanish once the super-wealthy McMahon unloads the negative ad machine on the nearly-penniless Shays, poking the GOP primary electorate's rage buttons with tales of his various moderate apostatsies (and most likely, the fact that he lived out-of-state and continued working as a DC insider between his 2008 loss and his decision to run for Senate). Also, it's worth noting that McMahon's already over 50 and hardly anyone (only 6%) is still left undecided, so absent a massive McMahon gaffe it's not clear how Shays turns this around.
There's not much flux in the Democratic primary, where Murphy has the edge but there are still a pile of undecideds. The big gainer here, in fact, is Tong, though getting up to 4 from a previous 1 only underscores how little-known he currently is. The primary isn't until August 14, so it'll still be a while before the candidates ramp up their advertising efforts and undecideds -- of which there are many more on the Dem side -- start coming off the fence. (Another consideration is that the Democratic convention is on May 12; the convention is important in Connecticut for ballot access, so depending on what happens there, we could see dropouts before then. The GOP convention, as well, is on May 18.)
If you're wondering about the Presidential portion of the poll, it doesn't look like we need to worry about Connecticut sliding toward swing state status; Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 53-37 (improved from a 49-36 lead last fall). R-Money, thanks to a much wealthier and more secular/mainline GOP electorate than in most states, has an easy time of the GOP primary, at 42, with Rick Santorum at 19, Newt Gingrich at 13, and Ron Paul at 9.
The biggest surprise of the poll is buried deep toward the end: Joe Lieberman's rehabilitation continues apace, with his approval rating up to 51/38. (I wonder if he's regretting the decision to stand down from another run.) That bump may be a reverse-honeymoon effect with voters' feelings not as hard as he rides off into that sunset, though, and I doubt his numbers would be that high if he were running again. The approvals for junior Sen. Richard Blumenthal are 64/23, his best scores from Qpac yet.