According to Rick Santorum's math, Mitt Romney would need to win 54 percent of
remaining delegates to secure nomination. AP's numbers say that figure is 45.7 percent.
Rick Santorum's campaign
provides details on its new delegate math to Byron York:
In a long conversation Wednesday evening, John Yob, the campaign's national and state convention director, pointed out that many high-profile primaries have been little more than beauty contests, and that delegates in many key states are actually being awarded in county, district, and state conventions, which are often dominated by conservative activists. "In that process, we are doing very well," said Yob. "The moderate candidate almost never performs better than a conservative candidate in a county, district, or state convention process."
Many states are just now starting their conventions, and it is impossible to say precisely how many delegates each candidate will win. The Associated Press delegate count, widely cited in media stories, shows Romney with 568 delegates to Santorum's 273, with Newt Gingrich at 135 and Ron Paul at 50. Yob's count is significantly different: according to his estimate, Romney has 482 delegates to Santorum's 331, with Gingrich at 158 and Paul at 91.
According to York, Yob provided two reasons for the difference between the Santorum campaign's numbers and the AP delegate count. First, delegates in Florida and Arizona will ultimately be allocated on a proportional basis, as required by RNC rules. Second, he says, in many states, primaries are essentially beauty contests, and delegates are selected in county and state conventions, allowing Santorum to pick up ground on Romney with conservative and party activists.
York says Yob concedes his numbers are merely estimates, but the same is true of the AP delegate total. None of this will mean a thing if Santorum is unable to win primaries down the stretch, but whether or not Yob's numbers are right, it explains why Santorum hasn't yet given up—and perhaps it explains why Newt Gingrich hasn't either. If they believe they have a realistic shot at denying Romney the delegates he needs to win on the first ballot, then they believe they have a realistic shot at forcing on open convention. And if that happens, all bets are off.