Well, I've finally gotten around to doing race ratings for the 2012 cycle. I have a nice big spreadsheet up on my computer, but since the vast majority of races aren't competitive, I will share with you some of the more competitive races right now as I see them.
If you have any questions about any other race as I see it, just let me know in comments and I'll provide my assessment.
As an obligatory note, all of these ratings are highly subject to change. It's still seven months to Election Day, after all.
I project Republicans will hold the House with 222 seats. I project Democrats will win 196 seats. I do consider 16 races as pure Tossups at this time and I will not project victors there one way or the other.
The 16 pure Tossups are:
CA-10 - Rep. Jeff Denham (R)
CA-21 - no incumbent
CA-52 - Rep. Brian Bilbray (R)
FL-09 - no incumbent
FL-18 - Rep. Allen West (R)
GA-12 - Rep. John Barrow (D)
IA-03 - Reps. Tom Latham (R) and Leonard Boswell (D)
IL-13 - no incumbent; retirement of Rep. Tim Johnson (R)
IL-17 - Rep. Bobby Schilling (R)
IN-02 - no incumbent; retirement of Rep. Joe Donnelly (D)
MI-01 - Rep. Dan Benishek (R)
NC-07 - Rep. Mike McIntyre (D)
NY-11 - Rep. Michael Grimm (R)
OH-16 - Reps. Jim Renacci (R) and Betty Sutton (D)
PA-12 - Reps. Mark Critz (D) and Jason Altmire (D)
RI-01 - Rep. David Cicilline (D)
I count 12 Tossup/Tilt D races at this time:
AZ-01 - no incumbent
CA-07 - Rep. Dan Lungren (R)
CA-26 - no incumbent; retirement of Rep. Elton Gallegly (R)
CA-31 - Rep. Gary Miller (R)
IL-12 - no incumbent; retirement of Rep. Jerry Costello (D)
MA-06 - Rep. John Tierney (D)
MN-08 - Rep. Chip Cravaack (R)
NV-03 - Rep. Joe Heck (R)
NY-18 - Rep. Nan Hayworth (R)
TX-23 - Rep. Francisco Canseco (R)
UT-04 - Rep. Jim Matheson
WA-01 - no incumbent; resignation of Rep. Jay Inslee (D)
I also count 7 Tossup/Tilt R races right now:
CO-06 - Rep. Mike Coffman (R)
FL-13 - Rep. Bill Young (R)
IA-04 - Rep. Steve King (R)
NE-02 - Rep. Lee Terry (R)
NJ-03 - Rep. Jon Runyan (R)
OH-06 - Rep. Bob Johnson (R)
PA-08 - Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R)
The only races not yet rated are Kansas, because the state has not completed its redistricting process. I expect all to be Republican-favoring and I have included them in my expected Republican total.
A number of these races are subject to dramatic change with certain nominees. For instead, nominating Gwen Howard in NE-02 would likely lead me to move the race to Lean R. If Suzan DelBene advances to the November ballot in WA-01, I will probably move the race to Lean D or even to Likely D. If Alan Grayson is not our nominee in FL-09, I think that race is at least Lean D, as it probably is if Osceola County Commission President John Quiñones is not the Republican nominee there. If Ilario Pantano is not the Republican nominee in NC-07, that race probably moves to Tossup/Tilt R or Lean R. If Cicilline is not renominated in RI-01, the race probably becomes Likely D.
Similarly, there are races that are not listed as Tossups of any kind now that would probably move to that category with an unexpected nominee. If Republicans reject Matt Doheny in NY-21, that race may become a Tossup or Tossup/Tilt D. If a strong candidate like Joe Garcia enters the race in FL-26, that race likely moves to Tossup/Tilt D. If Ron Barber is not our nominee in AZ-02, that race may move to Tossup/Tilt D.
However, I do expect Democrats to retain the Senate. I have projected 51 seats for them, including the Maine seat I project as safe for Angus King (I) and thus as Lean D based on my assessment of his political preferences and my current assessment of Democrats' likelihood to hold at least 50 Senate seats as well as the White House, to 47 projected for Republicans after this cycle, with 2 pure Tossups.
The 2 pure Tossup races are:
Nevada - Sen. Dean Heller (R)
Virginia - no incumbent; retirement of Sen. Jim Webb (D)
I have 3 Tossup/Tilt D races listed:
Massachusetts - Sen. Scott Brown (R)
Missouri - Sen. Claire McCaskill (D)
Wisconsin - no incumbent; retirement of Sen. Herb Kohl (D)
I also have 2 Tossup/Tilt R races:
Montana - Sen. Jon Tester (D)
North Dakota - no incumbent; retirement of Sen. Kent Conrad (D)
As with the House ratings, these are subject to change not just due to shifting dynamics, but because the nominees are known for certain in just a few of them. And in primaries that are contested as anything but a formality, it could make a big difference; Indiana would probably become Tossup/Tilt R or even Tossup if Sen. Richard Lugar loses the Republican primary. If Tommy Thompson is not the Republican nominee in Wisconsin, the race probably shifts to Lean D.