Basically, Mittens is such a train wreck that his own people refer to him as Mr. Etch-A-Sketch. It would seem that Obama has 2012 election in the bank.
What could change this?
A extra-ordinary event that can't be predicted OR
The wildcard is The Joker Ron Paul
Yes, Ron Paul. Let me explain below the fold and remember this is NOT a defense of this waste of DNA.
Straight up Mittens can not win. Under normal circumstances Mittens has less of a chance of winning than a snowball staying frozen in hell.
Enter Ron Paul.
As I made a note of in a recent diary, I do know two people of very polar opposites who can almost never agree on anything political, EXCEPT, Ron Paul.
The Repug has stated that he doesn't care about Ron paul's bigotted attitudes. The Democrat (with strong independent leanings) states that the media is blowing it up and that Ron Paul is being set up by the Main Stream Media who fear him.
If Mittens had a clue (and I won't give him the quarter to buy one), he would know he can not win. Putting Paul on the ticket would just piss off the Ron Paul base. It would be a total sell-out move as seen the by the Ron Paul acolyates. It would be an all-around mitgated disater for them (And as such should be ENCOURAGED!)
There has been some thoughts here that Ron Paul would sell out for ambition, myself personally see him as more of a fanatic that would rather go down with his causes.
Ron Paul, if he were to break off to run as a 3rd party candidate would be the only thing keeping the election close.
He won't syphon off the base bible thumping jackholes keeping southern states firmly in the repugs camp. Just the Repug/Independent voters some of which would lean towards a 3rd party candidate.
Some Democrats who are very anti-war would see Obama as closer to the war-mongering right than Mr Stick his head in the sand Ron Paul. We are talking of some of the extremes. Then add in the Democrat/Independent voters some of which would lean towards a 3rd party candidate.
Swing states would be where the damage would occur. Places that have voted both D & R in the past. These are the type of people ready to buy Ron Paul's snake oil. These states currently poll at about +9% Obama. A Strong Ron Paul campaign could syphon off his lead.
I am not saying a Ron Paul 3rd party run would lead to a Obama loss, all I am saying is that it would be the biggest threat to his re-election.