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Leading Off:

MA-Sen: In the weeks after the end of each quarter, between the close of the fundraising deadline and the date reports are due at the FEC, candidates often provide early glimpses of what their quarterly hauls have been. Usually, I gather links all day and post them in one big batch before I wrap up for the evening, unless there's something out-of-the-ordinary to report—and this definitely counts as out-of-the-ordinary. Democrat Elizabeth Warren just announced that she's raised an astounding $6.9 million in her race against Sen. Scott Brown. That's more than double Brown's already-impressive $3.4 million take this quarter, so, just, wow.

By comparison, Warren scored an amazing $5.7 mil in the final three months of 2011—an incredibly tough act to follow, I might add—which means her momentum is gaining. Brown raised $3.2 mil in the fourth quarter of last year, so while he's no slouch (and has a monster $15 million on hand), the enthusiasm powering Warren's campaign is really a sight to behold. In a separate email, Warren added that Brown "still has $4 million more in the bank than we do," so her campaign must have about $11 mil cash-on-hand. Not too shabby—but I'm sure she'll need every penny.

1Q Fundraising:

CO-03: Sal Pace (D): $280K raised, $520K cash-on-hand

FL-13: Rep. Vern Buchanan (R): $484K raised, $1.5 mil cash-on-hand

IA-04: Rep. Steve King (R): $450K raised, $800K cash-on-hand; Christie Vilsack (D): $400K raised, $900K cash-on-hand

ID-02: Nicole LeFavour (D): $61K raised (in two weeks)

NJ-09: Rep. Steve Rothman (D): $540K raised, $1.8 mil cash-on-hand; Rep. Bill Pascrell: $510K raised

NY-18: Sean Maloney (D): $320K raised, $310K cash-on-hand (in two months)

WV-Gov (3/26/2011 through 3/30/2012): Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D): $1 mil raised, $876K cash-on-hand; Bill Maloney (R): $300K raised, $267K cash-on-hand

Senate:

IN-Sen: Two conservative groups are stepping up their assault on GOP Sen. Richard Lugar, the Club for Growth and the National Rifle Association. I've gotta say, for a group as loaded as the Club is, why do their production values suck? The NRA spot is much better. Compare and contrast:

Meanwhile, Lugar is firing back with a negative ad attacking his primary opponent, Treasurer Richard Mourdock, for... pretty much nothing at all. He starts with a familiar quote of Mourdock's that he's used before to paint him as some kind of DC pawn ("I'm confident there will be a lot of national money flowing in to help us"), then switches to various actual citizens just talking about how they dislike Mourdock, but without offering a single specific criticism. The ad feels like the comments section of a local newspaper sprung to life. You can watch it at the link or below:
ME-Sen: A hellofa catch by bfen in comments. From a recent CNN interview of independent ex-Gov. Angus King by Fipp Avlon:
AVLON: Well, Senator Orrin Hatch had this to say yesterday to "Politico," "We're probably going to lose the Maine race," he said, "because Angus King is the most popular politician in Maine. He'll caucus with the Democrats, there's no question about that."

Angus, is he right or are you open to caucus with either party or neither party?

KING: Well, he's right in the first half of what he said. I think that was a brilliant insight.

Brilliant! Just like Angus King (I-ME)!

NE-Sen: I'm pretty unimpressed with the production values of this new ad from the conservative group Americans for Prosperity, attacking Democratic ex-Sen. Bob Kerrey for his various liberal views, but honestly, it probably doesn't matter. The hits on Kerrey come so easily, it doesn't take a lot of effort to dish them out. (You can watch the ad at the link.)

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, state Sen. Deb Fischer is out with a positive introductory spot, but the buy is reportedly for just $25K, and she's been a distant third in Republican primary polling, behind AG Jon Bruning and Treasurer Don Stenberg. (You can also watch Fischer's ad at the link.)

UT-Sen: FreedomWorks—the Beltway astroturfers piggybacking on the tea party movement—seem to be realizing the tide's not in their favor this year, given their faltering push to defeat Orrin Hatch at the Republican state nominating convention (fast-approaching on April 27). Two recent polls of delegates show Hatch in position to not just survive the convention but possibly win the nomination outright. On top of that, Hatch is sending out apparently-successful mailers lashing himself to favorite son Mitt Romney and linking FreedomWorks to opponent Newt Gingrich, so there may be the sense they're doing more harm than good this year. With that in mind, you can understand why the organization is making an early exit from Utah, apparently marshaling their resources for Indiana's GOP primary instead. (David Jarman)

Gubernatorial:

OR-Gov, OR-Sen: This is very good news for Oregon Democrats: Former NBA player Chris Dudley, who very nearly won his gubernatorial bid in 2010, is departing the state for California, because his wife is pursuing a business opportunity there. That takes him off the list for 2014, when both Gov. John Kitzhaber (the man he nearly beat last cycle) and freshman Sen. Jeff Merkley will be up for re-election. Kari Chisholm makes the case that Dudley would have been the GOP's strongest candidate against either candidate, and notes that he'd also been talked about as a possible opponent for OR-05 Rep. Kurt Schrader. Now the top Republican name for next cycle will be Rep. Greg Walden (who is unlikely to run), and after that, the bench gets very thin.

WI-Gov: Two more endorsements from the Democratic establishment for Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett, both from guys who had considered running in the gubernatorial recall themselves: ex-Rep. Dave Obey and ex-Rep. Steve Kagen. (Rep. Ron Kind did so last week.) On a conference call, Obey argued that Barrett is the strongest Democratic candidate and vocally pushed back against criticisms of Barrett's record by some unions. Indeed, as Dave Catanese points out, AFSCME acknowledged on Monday that a video which "implied Barrett supported Walker's move to end collective bargaining rights for workers" was "over the top," in the union's own words, and that it had exercised "poor judgment" in promoting it.

Perhaps most interesting, though, are the first two sentences of AFSCME's statement, which is directed to union members & supports: "Thank you for sharing your concerns about AFSCME's decision to make public our disappointment with Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett's record. We understand you feel we should speak no ill of any Democratic contender." It certainly sound as though rank-and-file members have communicated their unhappiness to leadership about its attacks on Barrett and perhaps are more interested in seeing a clean primary and a united Democratic front than some of the folks in charge are. That said, AFSCME isn't backing down, saying in the same statement that "we believe it is essential to bring attention to Barrett's record on collective bargaining. Unfortunately, it is not a good record."

As for Falk, she's the first Democrat to hit the airwaves, with a new, largely positive introductory spot. (No word on the size of the buy, but her campaign says it's airing statewide on cable.) I'm really struck by how non-partisan the whole thing is. There's a soft note on how "we added more jobs than any other area" (during her tenure as Dane County Executive), and there's a small jab at the Scott Walker regime, saying "our leaders" have "made decisions in secret and shut the people out." Is government transparency really the strongest-polling issue we've got?

House:

AZ-08, AZ-02: You know you have an interesting situation on your hands when both Democrats and Republicans are rooting for the same guy to win the GOP nomination. That's the case in Arizona, where Roll Call's Abby Livingston says that most Republicans have rallied around 2010 nominee Jesse Kelly, whom Democrats think is too conservative to be victorious in the general, despite his narrow loss to ex-Rep. Gabby Giffords last cycle. There's an added dimension here, which is that some Republicans are worried that if Kelly loses the AZ-08 special to Democrat Ron Barber in June, he'll be damaged for a second run at Barber (in a slightly bluer AZ-02) in the fall.

Livingston also mentions another interesting fact in her writeup: GOP state Sen. Frank Antenori didn't bother filing a fundraising report with the FEC (pre-primary reports for the special were due last Thursday). Perhaps he's bowing out of the special and instead plans to concentrate on the regular election? Or maybe he's just bailing altogether. Anyhow, here's a roundup of all the reports which did actually get filed:

Ron Barber (D): $549K raised, $85K spent, $464K cash-on-hand

Dave Sitton (R): $261K raised, $128K spent, $132K cash-on-hand

Jesse Kelly (R): $210K raised, $180K spent, $49K cash-on-hand

Martha McSally (R): $133K raised, $89K spent, $44K cash-on-hand

Meanwhile, Nomiki Konst, described by the Arizona Daily Star as a "former University of Arizona student," says she plans to remain in the race for the November election, even though almost every other Democrat has deferred to Barber. (The only other exception is state Rep. Matt Heinz.) Said Konst: "Ron Barber is a nice man. I respect and admire his dedication to the party and the district. But that does not mean he has the vision, the ideas and the energy to fight for this district, especially for years to come."

CA-15: While the big guns—Ellen Corbett and Ro Khanna—decided to wait at least one more cycle before taking on veteran Rep. Pete Stark in the Democratic primary, Dublin city councilor Eric Swalwell has forged ahead... and wow has his opposition research team scored an exceptional hit on the incumbent. Swalwell dug up a newspaper ad that Stark ran in 1972, contrasting his youthfulness and vigor to the long tenure of the Democratic incumbent at the time, George Paul Miller. (No relation to current California Rep. George Miller.)

Stark won that race, and has occupied that seat ever since—going on four decades. So Swalwell has reproduced Stark's old ad and paired it with a deliberately similar message of his own, inviting voters to compare his candidacy with Stark's at an upcoming candidate forum. But you really need to click through to see it for yourself. My hat is off to whomever dug this one up out of the deep archives.

FL-26: After a brief interlude where Democrats had no candidate at all to challenge scandal-plagued GOP Rep. David Rivera, now there's one: businesswoman Gloria Romero Roses, who announced her campaign on Monday (just a few days after her name was first floated). Roses is a political newcomer who has never run for office before, and she also lives well outside the district, in the town of Southwest Ranches near Ft. Lauderdale. (If you zoom in on our Google Map, you'll see she's in the green 23rd, rather than the purple 26th.) At least two other Dems are still looking at the race: former Miami-Dade County mayor Alex Penelas (who has said he's unlikely) and 2010 nominee Joe Garcia (who sounds more interested).

IL-13: Jerry Clarke, the former chief of staff to suddenly-retiring Tim Johnson (and current CoS for Rep. Randy Hultgren), is the first person to throw his name into the ring to replace Johnson on the ballot. The Quad City Times lists half a dozen other people who've expressed interest, and also gives some helpful details on the selection process, necessitated because the primary has already happened. The 14 local party chairs in the counties in the district will get weighted votes toward picking the nominee, but there's one small problem: New chairs won't be elected until April 18, so it isn't even clear yet who'll be doing the picking. (Johnson can't officially withdraw from the ballot until April 17, either, so that gives Clarke and any other entrants time to "campaign" for the spot.) (David Jarman)

IL-16: Late on Friday, word came out that House Majority Leader Eric Cantor got in bed with the Campaign for Primary Accountability to help defeat a member of his own caucus, Rep. Don Manzullo. As we noted, though, the CPA has targeted many Republican incumbents, but Cantor claims his donation to the super PAC was earmarked specifically to take out Manzullo.

But there's a big problem with that: The CPA's co-founders, Leo Linbeck and Eric O'Keefe, said in a subsequent CNN interview that there was no such agreement. That means Cantor's donation could, of course, have been used to go after any member of the GOP caucus. I have a feeling Cantor won't be making any more contributions to the group any time soon, but regardless, this won't help him placate furious fellow Republicans.

While we're on the topic, Linbeck and O'Keefe's talk with CNN's Fipp Avlon is actually pretty interesting in general. While I still think the CPA's goals are screwy, the two men do explain what they're up to and how they make the decisions they do. (It's a lengthy transcript, so you'll want to Ctrl-F for "Cantor.") O'Keefe, it turns out, was involved with the old term limits movement, but calls the CPA's approach "better than term limits" because it's not "one-size-fits-all." And Linbeck even addresses the unusual (and unsuccessful) choice to support Dennis Kucinich over Marcy Kaptur in the Democratic primary in OH-09. Worth a read.

MI-03: Former state Rep. Steve Pestka, who is seeking the Democratic nod to take on GOP freshman Justin Amash, just received a major endorsement: The United Auto Workers, a very big presence in Michigan, have given him their backing. (And I suspect that the rejuvenation of the auto industry has made the UAW an even more important player these days.) Pestka faces activist Trevor Thomas in the Democratic primary.

MN-08: Duluth city councilor Jeff Anderson is out with an internal poll, and while it doesn't show him in the lead, it shows a three-way tossup, which seems like progress for him, as he's seemed like something of a third wheel in the Dem primary contest, which also includes ex-state Sen. (and '10 MN-06 nominee) Tarryl Clark and long-ago ex-Rep. Rick Nolan. Anderson's poll, from Lincoln Park Strategies, finds Nolan at 19, with Clark and Anderson both at 16. That's a little more helpful than the internal released by Clark last week, which hinted at a three-way tie but didn't include full toplines. (David Jarman)

MO-04: When a backbench GOP Rep. from a dark-red district goes full birther, it doesn't usually rise to the level of inclusion in the Daily Digest; it's just a matter of singing from the expected hymnal. But freshman Vicky Hartzler's plunge down the rabbit hole at a town hall last week is worth a mention, because she has a legit Dem opponent: Teresa Hensley, prosecuting attorney for Cass County in Kansas City's suburbs. It's still a difficult district, but it was represented by a Dem, Ike Skelton, for decades prior to Hartzler, and now Hensley has a good fundraising angle dropped in her lap. (David Jarman)

NE-02: Republicans are determined not to let Barack Obama win an electoral vote in Nebraska again—and determined to keep GOP Rep. Lee Terry safe—so it's not surprised they're up to some dirty tricks. Dave Phipps, the Republican appointed to run elections for Douglas County (which makes up the bulk of the 2nd District), has closed nearly half the county's polling places, in an effort to make voting more difficult for poorer residents with limited access to transportation. What's more, his office knowingly sent out polling place cards to some 2,000 voters in a low-income Democratic neighborhood which had the wrong voting location listed—even though they knew before the cards went out that they contained errors. It's voter suppression at the highest levels of officialdom.

NY-06: At least a few observers had wondered if Rep. Joe Crowley, the Queens Democratic chair, was putting his cousin, NYC Councilwoman Liz Crowley, up to a bid so that she might split the white vote with Assemblyman Rory Lancman, giving Assemblywoman Grace Meng a clearer shot at scooping up the district's considerable Asian-American electorate and cruising to victory in the Dem primary. (Joe and his local party organization are backing Meng.) I don't know that voting is really so polarized in this area to even support the theory, but regardless, it seemed to be dashed by the fact that Liz Crowley raised real money in the first quarter—and because, I think, if you truly wanna throw a monkey-wrench into Lancman's plans, you'd find a Jewish male, not a Catholic female, to run a sham campaign.

Well, it may be time to revive this conspiracy theory after all, because it looks like Joe Crowley did indeed find his patsy. Jeffrey Gottlieb—a Board of Elections employee, no less—is now circulating petitions, even though he hasn't even filed with the FEC yet, prompting Lancman to issue a press release blasting Gottlieb's candidacy as a sham. What's more, City & State reports that "Meng backers" tried to recruit another Jewish Dem, Matthew Silverstein, who "did not deny that he had been approached about running" but said he declined to do so. So it definitely feels like some shadiness is afoot here. I would not be surprised to see some petition challenges in the near future.

NY-08: Looks like the New York Post somehow managed to get Ed Towns' campaign manager on the phone, in the context of a story about local Democratic clubs who have usually backed the incumbent refusing to do so this time. But the narrative is unchanged, because at least one club president said they didn't endorse Towns because he refused to even meet with them. If this is Towns' way of riding off into the sunset, it sure is a weird one.

NY-19: Another good get for attorney Julian Schreibman, who is hoping to take on GOP freshman Chris Gibson in the fall: He just won the backing of the Working Families Party, which means he'll have their line in November and hopefully their boots on the ground. This should also be helpful in the primary, since Schreibman faces Dutchess County Legislator Joel Tyner for the Democratic nod.

PA-17: Is attorney Matt Cartwright's message breaking through? That seems to be what his new internal poll (from Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies, a firm we don't seem to have encountered before) is saying. Cartwright now leads Rep. Tim Holden in the Democratic primary by a 42-36 margin, a big change from Holden's 41-25 lead in February. Both men have 51% favorability ratings (though Holden's unfavorables are double that of Cartwright's, 14 to 7), but it's Cartwright who has seen the bigger jump in name rec as the air war has heated up.

Other Races:

Special Elections: Just one this week, from Johnny Longtorso:

Minnesota SD-20: Open Dem seat. The candidates are State Rep. Lyle Koenen for the DFL, '10 nominee Gregg Kulberg for the Republicans (he got 43% that time), and accountant/farmer Leon Greenslit for the Independence Party. This is a pretty marginal district at only 51-46 Obama.
Grab Bag:

Netroots Nation: I'm very pleased to announce that the Daily Kos Elections crew will be doing a panel at Netroots Nation in Providence, RI this June, on our usual horserace Q&A theme. Come and ask us any question about any race in the nation! (Exact day and time TBA.) If you haven't registered to attend the conference yet, which runs from the 7th through the 10th) you can do so here.

New Jersey: The Garden State has long been one of the most intractable beasts when it comes to calculating presidential election results by congressional districts, but jeffmd has finally wrestled this ornery bear to the ground. The numbers really show you what a piece of work this new map is from a Republican perspective—remember, the redistricting commission's tiebreaking vote simply chose between Dem and GOP maps, rather than draw something of his own, and he picked Team Red's proposal. In particular, it protects several marginal Republican districts, making them much harder to pick up. (Just ask yourself this: Should a solid blue state like New Jersey have a congressional delegation that's 50% GOP?) In any event, you can best compare the new results to the old with our handy spreadsheet of pres-by-CD numbers for the entire House.

Voter Suppression: Leave it to the GOP to find a way to hoist themselves on their own voter suppression petards. Several Republican state senators from Lancaster and Lebanon Counties in Pennsylvania are calling into question aspects of the state's newly-passed voter ID law, seeing how it makes it much less likely that some of their most reliably conservative constituents—the Amish—will vote. Voters can obtain special nonphoto voter IDs for religious reasons (the Amish refuse to have their photos taken, in addition to having no need for drivers' licenses), but the senators (both of whom voted for the original bill) are now objecting to the multi-step process and intrusive questionnaires needed to obtain such an ID. (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  IBD/CSM/TIPP: Obama by 8 over Romney (9+ / 0-)

    46-38 (guess no pushing of the leaners).  Obama getting 41% of the white vote.  816 RVs.

    http://www.tipponline.com/...

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 05:13:07 AM PDT

  •  ABC poll this AM (7+ / 0-)

    51-44 for Obama.

    Women love him.

    Men, not so much.

    The Elephant. The Rider. The Path. Figure those out and change will come.

    by Denver11 on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 05:15:08 AM PDT

  •  Go Elizabeth! nt (5+ / 0-)

    I fall down, I get up, I keep dancing.

    by DamselleFly on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 05:24:53 AM PDT

  •  Quiz for you political junkies (4+ / 0-)

    I've posted a diary about a certain country.  What country is it?

    So there's this country with two major political parties.  This country had a candidate who barely won a hotly contested 2000 Presidential election, where there was a third party spoiler that prevented the party that had held the presidency from winning.  This new President then became increasingly unpopular with hints of corruption in his party (I'll call this Party A from now on), but still managed to win re-election in 2004.  Massive corruption and scandal then dogged his party.  The most-watched TV news station in the country openly shills for Party A, and gets away with saying outright lies about the other party, which is represented by the color blue (which I'll call Party B from now on).  People in Party B want him investigated for crimes and crony capitalism against the country.

    Then in 2008, a charismatic figure emerged as the new opposition candidate for Party B, campaigning on a platform of hope and change.  He's a family man who's married with two daughters.  He graduated from Harvard Law School, and his wife has a law degree as well.  After a bad experience in politics, he went back to academia, but a short while later, took on the incumbent for a local seat, and won.

    Because of term limits, the increasingly unpopular President from Party A couldn't run for a third term anyway.  The person who eventually emerged from Party A's primary as the new candidate said "[our country's] future will be in danger" if the candidate from Party B was elected.  Others in his party went further, claiming the country would be destroyed should Party B win the presidency.  The candidate from Party B wasn't born on the mainland, either, and he was attacked by certain people from Party A who claimed he lied about where he was really born.  These people, which include some elected officials from Party A, claimed he was ineligible to be President, and kept demanding to see his birth certificate.  Some of them outright questioned his loyalty to his country, and whether he was perhaps working for another country in secret.  The Party B candidate was also criticized from the left by the country's Green Party, which said he wasn't good enough on environmental issues.

    More about this country, and what happened politically, since the 2008 elections and onward, in the link.

    Any ideas?  :-)

  •  MN-Sen (10+ / 0-)

    http://minnesota.publicradio.org/...

    Klobuchar's opponents are raising chump change. We will likely see the high water mark for the modern DFL in a statewide race, which is currently held by former AG Hubert H Humphrey III (grandson of the firmer Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey) in his reelection bid in 1994 where he pulled in an impresive 66% of the vote.

    •  Would Be Sweet To See An 87-County Sweep.... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      OGGoldy, ArkDem14, savvyspy

      ...by AKlo.  It'd be the first of my lifetime (I think...not sure how much Joan Growe and Skip Humphrey dominated in the 1980s and 1990s), but with these rank amateurs as her opposition, it's certainly credible.

      •  Humphrey swept (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        IM, Mark27

        Growe never did, AFAIK. Carlson very nearly did for the Republicans that same day in 94, winning everything except the heart of the Iron Range.

        •  Where Did You Find That Information? (0+ / 0-)

          My attempts to access historical election data has come up empty.  I got a precinct-by-precinct PDF for 1994 and crunched the numbers for the Governor and Senator race, but never saw any county maps.  Are you basing this on old blue books or is this information readily available somewhere?

          •  I neber saw a map (0+ / 0-)

            And I am not sure one was even made back then. But there has been chatter amongst politicos that "this could be the first sweept since Humphrey in 94". There was also a poat-mortum I ran across w/r/t the 98 gubernatorial election that essentially said "Humphrey went from winning 2/3 of the vote, and every county, to not getting 30% and finishing 3rd four years later."

            I am at work and on my Droid so I can't really look for a link, but Our Elections would probably be as good of a place as any to start looking. Sorry I can't be of more service here.

  •  PA-SEN (4+ / 0-)

    It's always cute when self-financing millionaires attack each other:

    PoliticsPA:

    As the Welch camp noted in an attack website it unveiled Monday, Smith was a Dem from the time he registered until 2011. He contributed $2,400 to Rep. Jason Altmire in 2009, though Smith notes that he’s contributed over $250,000 to Republican candidates and causes. A he did raise taxes as Plumcreek Township Supervisor, albeit not by a large dollar amount.

    But thus far those issues haven’t dogged Smith on the campaign trail the way Welch’s have. Welch switched from Republican to Democrat in 2005, contributed $300 to Joe Sestak in 2006, and voted for Obama in the 2008 primary before switching back to the GOP in 2009. He notes that he voted for John McCain in the general election and campaigned for Pat Toomey and Tom Corbett in 2010.

    The attention has been brutal for Welch; his party registration comes up at nearly every forum and debate. No surprise then, that he would seek to tie Smith to Obama first....

    It must preempt Smith’s camp on Welch’s key vulnerability: his 2008 primary vote for Obama. It must bring down Smith’s favorable; Smith has been on TV since December and has led in recent polling. At the same time, it must raise Welch’s name ID and reiterate the fact that he’s been endorsed by the Pennsylvania Republican party.

    NWOTSOTB.
  •  Go Elizabeth go! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    conniptionfit, Remediator, itskevin

    The radical Republican party is the party of oppression, fear, loathing and above all more money and power for the people who robbed us.

    by a2nite on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 06:13:33 AM PDT

  •  If the Obama Surge Persists (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IM, bear83, askew

    or enlarges by November, she is carried over the finish line, I think.

  •  ME-pres poll with CD breakdown (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marcus Graly, bear83

    shows Obama up 18 overall, almost exactly matching his 2008 numbers, but a wider differential between the CD split than in 2008 (in brackets),

    ME-01 O: 61 (61), R 33 (37)
    ME-02 O: 48 (55), R 41 (43).

    or in other words a 28-7 as opposed to a 24-12 variation in the lead.

    Link

    If correct, this could mean that the 2nd district is vulnerable even with a statewide lead of 10-12 points. Not entirely out of the question if the national race gets a lot closer.

  •  Axelrod meets with that! Patrick Murphy (0+ / 0-)

    David Axelrod met with Patrick Murphy supporters for a strategy session.

    I suppose it's about as explicit of an endorsement to be expected as I'm sure Obama doesn't want to do anything to dredge up memories of Pennsylvania PUMA feelings.

    On the plus side, the comments in this link are quite hilarious; every possible viewpoint is represented though.

    http://www.politicspa.com/...

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 06:48:29 AM PDT

  •  The MOST important race in YOUR State (7+ / 0-)

    Is your local State Legislature race.  Right where YOU live.   Please, please find your local Progressive Candidate and offer what ever help you can.  If you don't think they can win because your district is too red, think again.  The Only battle you're  guaranteed to lose is the one you won't help fight!  Nobody ever said politics was easy. Local
    Progressives , especially new ones have so little chance to win, because no one knows them yet and they get so little help  If it was easy we would all stay home and watch Dancing With the Stars..  
    The equally important race is your US House race/Senate races.  Obama is going to win, and he's going to need all the help he can get in the form of super majorities, to become the President we all think he can be.
    BE THE CHANGE, PEOPLE!

  •  Lugar is in real trouble (6+ / 0-)

    What with the general tone in Indiana right now and how poorly he is managing this primary, he could see himself ousted.

    And I don't blame the guy, he honestly hasn't had to actually campaign in some years now. For the longest in Indiana it's been just a straight ticket shot for Lugar.

    Actually gives Donnelly a good shot at office. Course he better win if Mourdock ends up running because that asshole is crazy.

    --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

    by idbecrazyif on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 06:55:33 AM PDT

  •  It's beginning to look like (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker, SaoMagnifico

    Democrats will have no problems holding onto the district afterall, AZ-08. Jesse Kelley is an extremist who took a lot of flak for the kind of campaign he ran in 2010 after he Giffords shooting, and Barber seems well-connected and has vastly more money. Then the new AZ-02 is slightly bluer and has a good trendline for team blue. I feel confident Democrats will have at least 4, if not 5, of Arizona's congressional districts come 2013.

    It bothers me to see Chris Dudley get such chops; the guy literally knew nothing about governing, his ideas and campaign trail speaking indicated as much. He had no experience, a rather unabashedly conservative platform, and lied about a lot of things, including his tax history where he avoided paying Oregon income taxes. The real reason it was close was because of the cycle, but more because, it seemed to me, that Kitzhaber blew a twenty point lead in the aftermath of his primary victory because he took the general for granted until October when he suddenly started trying to strike Dudley back, but only after Dudley had been given free reign to positively introduce himself.

    Lugar looks like he's in real trouble if not only teabaggers and the CfG are getting involved now, but also the NRA. Donnelly needs to keep doing what he#s doing and preparing to face Murdoch in the general. And I'd hope the Obama campaign reconsiders their decision not to compete for Indiana as heavily as they did in 2008.

    Well, hopefully these are signs in the WI-Recall that the unions are going to be more positive and cautious about their tone in backing Falk and Democrats can have a positive and constructive race that makes them stronger to run against Walker.

    Re ME SEN: Brilliant indeed, just like ME! Angus King. Seriously though, King did feel the need to endorse a conservative Republican over a centrist Democrat in 2000, after 8 years of governance by a center-right Democrat. The guy is literally all over the place and does legitimately seem to buy into his own pompous koolaid; he is after all one of those independents who are independent because they think they are too good for parties and enjoy mocking the political system with their idealism. I don't like that Democrats have to stick their hopes with this guy, who certainly appears like he'll be a self-serving pain for the leadership to deal with. And a guy who at most would serve one or two terms.

    Incredible Warren haul. She is a great candidate. The perfect match up against Brown, who is, despite his act, truly a consumate politician. I do wish Democrats had someone to run against Buchanon. His district got more Democratic, and he's neck deep in ethical problems. It should be one of the best Democratic pick up opportunities in the country.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

    by ArkDem14 on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 06:58:23 AM PDT

  •  NJ-Gov: Now this stuff makes me mad. (8+ / 0-)

    Christie lied about the new tunnel to NYC.
    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 06:58:25 AM PDT

  •  Very good to hear the coins clanging in (0+ / 0-)

    Elizabeth Warren's coffers.  Putting her in the seat Brown holds now would be money well spent.  Come on, Massachusetts voters -- the rest of us are counting on you to make the best choice in this one.  

    The Republican Party is in harm's way when many of its members and long-time supporter-groups favor Mourdock over Lugar.  Lugar's no prize; I'd urge anyone to vote for any Democrat who runs against him, no matter what, but on the other hand, Mourdock is one of the next in line for crazy far-Right nutbags.  It's a kind of electoral psychosis: Indiana voters dumped Birch Bayh for Dan Quayle; now we're asked to consider that Lugar is too moderate for even the GOP?  Sheesh.

    The Wisconsin Democratic primary is going to be interesting.  The two Kathleens seem to have some support, although Barrett is winning key support, too.  I like La Follette's record on the environment, but don't think he can prevail against this field.  A lot of us just want Walker gone and are less picky in the primary than we might have been otherwise.  

  •  Add AZ - (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    The new Arizona CD map has received DOJ Section 5 pre-clearance. LINK

    The GOP ... Government of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%

    by Azazello on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 07:17:42 AM PDT

  •  PA Voter ID Law (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    okiedem, bear83

    Looks like the ACLU and NAACP lawsuits challenging the law will be filed by the end of the month.

    http://www.philly.com/...

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 07:17:47 AM PDT

    •  If Voter ID law have a big effect anywhere it will (0+ / 0-)

      be in Philly (since it's far and away the least car-centric place that has put in place, or could conceivably put into place a voter-ID law). Since I find it very unlikely that these provisions will be overturned (see link below) I suspect we'll find out. My suspicion is that it will have a non-trivial effect but that the effect won't be big enough to effect the result of any but a very close election.

      http://scholar.google.com/...

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 07:22:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The flip-side (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        okiedem, bear83

        Is that the population(s) in Philly to be affected have been engaged in politics at a decent rate by Obama and local pols and could hopefully be helped to get the birth certificate and ID's needed to vote.

        So the impacted population might be large, but like the state I have no idea how big the population really is.  I also wonder if the cost for birth certificates ($10) will allow the law to be overturned as I think only the ID is free but the birth certificate is not covered.

        I think the real hang-up is with the homeless.  Because of the requirements for the birth certificate for people without govt ID's require either a family member or legal rep to get it for you or for the person to submit a form with proof of address, the homeless don't have many options.

        I work with a non-profit in University City in Philly and our legal clinic has been dealing with a lot of birth certificate stuff in recent years.  Luckily we provide a legal representative who makes the request for the homeless, but it's not on a grand enough scale that it could cover that many people.  

        To me the almost circuitous nature of voter ID's (i.e. its hard and costly for poor people without photo ID to get the birth certificate needed to get a voter ID) makes me optimistic it gets overturned, or at the very least, delayed for 2012.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 07:40:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Non-ID vs. non-voters (0+ / 0-)

        I'd bet there's a very high correlation. People who never find need for an ID (driving, flying, using a credit card, going to clubs, buying liquor, etc.) are likely the extremely disengaged, and dependent seniors who if anything vote absentee from assisted living.

        (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

        by TrueBlueDem on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 12:44:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  FL-26 (0+ / 0-)

    That district is even more Republican now that the state legislature finished with redistricting. It'll be a long-shot for any Dem to win there, especially an unknown like Roses. Joe Garcia probably has the best shot, and if he runs, hopefully Wasserman-Schultz decides to finally get behind a Cuban-American Dem, because she didn't do jack shit for them back in 2008.

    As for NE-02, Dems need to get the Justice Department involved ASAP.

    •  No (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, KingofSpades

      The partisan competition barely changed in redistricting, but it moved slightly to the left actually.  And the map remains subject to review by the Florida Supreme Court, which could force an even more Democratic, Miami-Dade only district.

      NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

      by Bobby Big Wheel on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 07:24:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  From what i saw on the map (0+ / 0-)

        the district includes pretty much every major Cuban-American suburb in West Miami-Dade and less of the predominantly African-American parts of South Miami-Dade. That combination does not bode well for a Democrat here in Miami-Dade, but it would certainly be something to celebrate if it happened.

      •  Also, Party Registration doesn't necessarily (0+ / 0-)

        give the advantage to the Democrat. I live in Ros-Lehtinen's district which went for Obama by about 2%, yet she won re-election by 16%. Unfortunately the Cuban-American Republicans are still quite popular here.

        •  This is a pretty useful source on FL-redistricting (0+ / 0-)

          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 07:47:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thanks. (0+ / 0-)

            Rivera's district is going to be 53% Cuban-American. That alone is probably enough to put him over the top since Cuban-Americans vote in very large numbers. It looks like Mario Diaz-Balart's district may be the only competitive one.

            •  I think 53% of the hipanic population is Cuban (0+ / 0-)

              not of the total population. Though that's still pretty close to a majority since the three South Florida Cuban districts are all pretty overwhelmingly hispanic anyways.

              26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 07:56:05 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  True and its worth noting that even many non-Cuban (0+ / 0-)

                Hispanics vote for the Republican congressmen because they support legalization for illegal immigrants. That's what helped them in 2008. South Florida politics is not as black-and-white as one might think.

            •  Compare to his old district (0+ / 0-)

              His old district was 50-49 McCain.  That file says 50-50 Obama (must be of the two party vote) so it moved a tick to the left.

              NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

              by Bobby Big Wheel on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 08:04:43 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think, with 3rd Party vote factored in (0+ / 0-)

                Obama won the new 26th by 51-48.  I saw that on the Miami herald IIRC.

                "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

                by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 08:06:58 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I think it'll take more than a tick to beat Rivera (0+ / 0-)

                Remember he won his last race by 10%. Its going to take a lot of money, and probably some more scandals on his part to really have a chance at beating him. A lot of us here in South Florida thought the Diaz-Balart bros. were going down in 2008, but the Cuban-American vote didn't shift as much to the Dems as we'd hope. We'll see.

  •  This turns my stomach (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83

    Read why Matt Taibbi is furious about the Jobs Act that Obama has just signed.

    Why the Obama Jobs Act couldn't suck worse

    .

    this law actually appears to have been specifically written to encourage fraud in the stock markets.

    Ostensibly, the law makes it easier for startup companies (particularly tech companies, whose lobbyists were a driving force behind its passage) to attract capital by, among other things, exempting them from independent accounting requirements for up to five years after they first begin selling shares in the stock market.

    The law also rolls back rules designed to prevent bank analysts from talking up a stock just to win business, a practice that was so pervasive in the tech-boom years as to be almost industry standard.

    Even worse, the JOBS Act, incredibly, will allow executives to give "pre-prospectus" presentations to investors using PowerPoint and other tools in which they will not be held liable for misrepresentations. These firms will still be obligated to submit prospectuses before their IPOs, and they'll still be held liable for what's in those. But it'll be up to the investor to check and make sure that the prospectus matches the "pre-presentation."

    The JOBS Act also loosens a whole range of other reporting requirements, and expands stock investment beyond "accredited investors," giving official sanction to the internet-based fundraising activity known as "crowdfunding."

    But the big one, to me, is the bit about exempting firms from real independent tests of internal controls for five years.

    This is the kind of change that makes me think that there is just one party.

    If cats could blog, they wouldn't

    by crystal eyes on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 07:34:27 AM PDT

  •  Veepstakes: Gov. Fortuño bangs on... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    okiedem, HoosierD42

    About how he magically saved Puerto Rico from becoming "America's Greece" by slashing government jobs in an English-language speech in San Juan. Story here.

    Sounds familiar, right? Mitt Romney made a gloomy-doomy pronouncement about how President Obama is leading us into a Greece-style collapse back in January. Story here.

    Meanwhile, Rep. Paul Ryan is a longtime fan of beating the Greece drum. He rolled out an absurd graph to illustrate how great his deficit-balancing (by 2040), income-expanding (for millionaires and billionaires almost exclusively) budget of death (a.k.a. Ryan's Curse) is by "showing" how the U.S. will become like Greece if his budget isn't adopted last month. Story here.

    Next thing you know, Sen. Rubio is going to be filming an art nouveau black-and-white concept film in Athens with an Obama lookalike throwing burning dollar bills into the air in slow motion as a middle-class American family cries in the shadow of the Parthenon. That will totally get Romney's attention.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 07:58:11 AM PDT

    •  I just can't see it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      I just don't see what the value added of picking Fortuno over Rubio is and I think a large portion of the GOP base will be hostile to the pick. It would be an interesting selection but I think it's probably unlikely due to the level of risk the pick would carry (though maybe it could happen as a hail mary if Romney is down by 8-10 in late summer).

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 08:11:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think he'll be it (0+ / 0-)

        I think he surely wants to be, though. Very hard to see a scenario there that doesn't see Puerto Rico become a state.

        I'm actually with Begala. I think it'll be Sen. Portman.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 08:15:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obama Campaign will ignore Portman... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, jncca, James Allen

          Other than an initial boomlet that points out that Portman worked in the Bush Budget office, also was in the House from 1993 - 2005, and in the Bush years voted for both Bush Tax cuts and Medicare Part D without paying for it.  He was also the Bush OMB after the 2004 re-election where Cheney famously said "Deficits don't matter, we have a mandate".  

          Also it will be pointed out that Portman voted for the Blunt Amendment as well as the Ryan budget and was part of the Super Committee formed after the debt ceiling deal that couldn't come to any agreement.

          So he basically reinforced Romney, but isn't a culture warrior and doesn't have any FP experience which could hurt the ticket with the RR in the former and indies in the latter case.  

          •  Portman is blah (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sapelcovits

            which is why he's probably a safe choice. If McCain had picked him is 2008 as was rumored, his defeat wouldn't have been so ignominious. But Portman has all the proper right wing credentials. However, he's inexplicably unpopular in Ohio — inexplicably because he's so low-profile I didn't realize people knew enough about him to dislike him.

            Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

            by anastasia p on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 08:57:58 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Isn't "beating the Greece drum" (0+ / 0-)

      pretty standard among right-wing and/or deficit hawk types?  I don't think Romney's going to pick Fortuño just because he gave such a speech.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 08:16:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nah, I seriously doubt it (0+ / 0-)

        Just thought it dovetailed nicely with my diary from a month or two back.

        I do think Romney will pick someone he believes fundamentally understands the world the way he's been programmed to. So I view this speech and Rep. Paul Ryan's infographic both as stump speeches for the ideology and subtle appeals to Romney for consideration.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 08:25:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Austerity today austerity tomorrow austerity 4ever (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits

        In rhetoric only of course.  The Ryan budget does not actually reduced the deficit because of its huge tax cuts for the wealthy.

        29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

        by Marcus Graly on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 08:56:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  NY-Sen is going to be fun, Gillibibrand up by 40 (6+ / 0-)

    in new poll.

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    I wouldn't be surpised if Turner doesn't win a single county if he's the nominee.

    26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 08:22:21 AM PDT

  •  NY-21 Owens visiting Glens Falls (4+ / 0-)

    Rep Bill Owens visiting one of the larger 9relatively) cities in the new section of NY-21.

    Glens Falls along with Queensbury is a big chunk of Warren County, which is now wholly in NY-21 (it used to be part of Gillibrand/Murphy/Gibson's old NY-20 district).  These types of areas are able to vote for Democrats (like Gillibrand) so he can win here but he does have to work.

    I hope he goes hard after the new portions of his district.  The area can be won by Dems even if many of them routinely vote GOP for local races.

    http://poststar.com/...

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 08:35:03 AM PDT

  •  That Campaign for Primary Accountability (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod

    is so weird. Here in Ohio, they helped take down Jean Schmidt in the primary and replace her with a slicker but even further to the right candidate. Up here in Cleveland, however, they worked FOR Dennis Kucinich, trying  unsuccessfully to take out Marcy Kaptur. I don't get their motivation on meddling in that race, especially since I sense their heart is with the far far far right. The ads against Marcy weren't about her policies or her votes but trumped-up trivia (claiming she didn't live in the district because she owns a home in the D.C. area, which Dennis also does, not unusual for long-time congressperson) which suggests they weren't really committed to a belief system here but that something else we don't understand yet was at work.

    Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

    by anastasia p on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 08:53:23 AM PDT

  •  Angus King (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod

    is smart not to explicitly state that he'd caucus as a Dem -- most Republicans would then coalesce around their nominee.

    As for Joe Crowley - UGH!  Just ... ugh ...

  •  53-40 in Colorado? (5+ / 0-)

    Outlier perhaps but good to see all the same.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 10:25:28 AM PDT

    •  Wow. That is a huge lead. Much bigger than I (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      expected.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 10:38:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I ask like a broken record (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        how he can make people un-dislike him? I just don't see omeone who is not a partisan R, who's decided Teh Mittster is "weird (if not downright creepy)" is going to change that, short of Obama imploding?

        Romney's headed in the other direction. His net favorability has gone from -18 (35/53) to an even worse -29 (31/60). Romney had a healthy amount of appeal to Democrats earlier with 20% viewing him favorably but that's now down to 11%. And he's extremely unpopular with independents at 25/65.
        •  Romney's got to pin his hopes on (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          newdem1960

          the economy worsening or some other catastrophe happening. I don't think he can improve his favorables unless he has an amazing convention speech or debate performances. And Romney isn't charismatic enough to give an excellent speech and he doesn't have the debate skills to out-debate Obama.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 11:36:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Nice!!! n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew
    •  seriously eye-popping numbers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      and again a gigantic gender gap. This is really awful for Romney if it isn't an outlier, because if Obama locks down VA, NV, CO and NM + the Kerry states then he doesn't even need to bother with Ohio or Florida.

      Arizona should also be very competitive based on these numbers....

    •  PPP's tweets on NC also suggest around +5 Obama (0+ / 0-)

      Both numbers would be consistent with a national lead of around 11 points if the two states maintain the same lean they had in 2008. However, that's considerably in excess of what most national polling has been suggesting even if you exclude Rasmussen's joke of a tracker; an alternative theory is that both states are leaning a few points more Dem in 2012 than they were in 2008. If so, then NC is truly in the marginal swing state zone, around as likely/difficult as Florida has been in recent elections, while CO could be moving into the same kind of category as somewhere like Wisconsin, which the Republicans will sort-of target but without much hope of winning.

  •  Rasmussen: Warren +1 eom. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

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