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OK, I admit it, I'm a bit of an Intrade nut. I check the site several times a day to see what the probability is for Obama's re-election, for Rubio to be Romney's VP pick, etc. I find that site more interesting than polls because people are putting their money where their mouth is and also the "wisdom of crowds" is usually pretty accurate.

Recently a market for Walker being recalled was added to the site. I first I had a sadz because it started out a point or two more probable than Obama being re-elected - like 61.7% for Walker winning the recall vs 60.1% for Obama being re-elected - and darn it, I want Obama to be re-elected and I don't want Walker to win the recall.  But today Walker started dropping and dropping fast. About 61% this AM. Down to 57% at noon PDT. Now at 55%. Maybe someone's been indicted? The only thing I could find on Google is that WI SoS Democrat Doug La Follette has filed to run - is he that popular? On November 2, 2010, La Follette won re-election over challenger David King, a Milwaukee Republican, 52% to 48% - not exactly a blowout. What's going on?

BTW, if you're interested,Obama's been in a tight 59-61% range recently, currently 60.7%.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    judyms9, reenactor, Smoh, Sun Tzu, Dvalkure, kaliope

    Democracy - Not Plutocracy!

    by vulcangrrl on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 01:53:09 PM PDT

  •  Walker decided that he hates women. (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Smoh, Dvalkure, 3goldens, JVolvo, Puddytat

    LaFollette will make no impact.

    •  Is the equal pay repeal getting attention in WI? (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Korkenzieher, Smoh, 3goldens, JVolvo, Puddytat

      “when Democrats don’t vote, Democrats don’t win.” Alan Grayson

      by ahumbleopinion on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 02:02:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Smoh, Dvalkure, 3goldens, JVolvo, Puddytat

        But it's really just another bullet point on a very long list of terrible things that Walker's done. It's prominent news, but Walker has really lost his ability to shock people by now. In normal times, people would start howling about this. These aren't normal times, and we've been howling for over a year.

        The Bush Family: 0 for 4 in Wisconsin

        by Korkenzieher on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 02:11:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, there are lots of bullet points on the list. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          But each bullet point effects a different even if overlapping segment of the population, so even if activists have heard it all, someone out there may be personally drawn in by this new outrage .  So I was hoping that this was getting publicity to perhaps get the attention of a few more folks.

          “when Democrats don’t vote, Democrats don’t win.” Alan Grayson

          by ahumbleopinion on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 07:35:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  There's been publicity (0+ / 0-)

            I'm not sure though that the equal pay issue is a higher profile than any other single issue. However, having said that...I'm a guy, and most of the women in my life aren't very political. It may be that women who are really plugged in are absolutely enraged, but my wife isn't one of those women.

            The Bush Family: 0 for 4 in Wisconsin

            by Korkenzieher on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 09:20:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Interesting diary. I don't know if anyone (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Smoh, JVolvo, Puddytat

    has been indicted in WI other than those already known, but LaFollette is a revered name among liberals.  Also, Obama gave a really good speech about income disparity and the Buffet Amendment at Florida A.U. in Boca Raton today.  Obama steals the finite number of positive rays from the rethugs on many days.  And, lastly, having the former key vote counter who could always find stashes of spare rethug votes removed from her role has also served to dim Walker's prospects as well.

    Romney went to France instead of serving in our military, got rich chop-shopping US businesses and eliminating US jobs, off-shored his money in the Cayman Island"s, and now tells us to "Believe in America."

    by judyms9 on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 02:05:50 PM PDT

    •  LaFollette (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Smoh, 3goldens, Puddytat

      Doug LaFollette has been Secretary of State here forever. He's just a guy, sort of a harmless non-entity, like Herb Kohl. I think his reach is exceeding his grasp by running for governor. He won't be a factor. It'll be all about Kathleen Falk and Tom Barrett.

      The Bush Family: 0 for 4 in Wisconsin

      by Korkenzieher on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 02:14:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nothing noteworthy is happening (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Smoh, 3goldens, Puddytat

    Walker is dropping because people at InTrade are, and they have this in common with commodity traders in the petroleum markets, more like a herd of stampeding cattle than anything else. Why are they buying petroleum futures? Because everyone else is. Why are they selling Walker's chances and driving his numbers down at In Trade? Because everyone else is.

    There's nothing remarkable happening here except the day to day of the campaign...which is remarkable in and of itself.

    The Bush Family: 0 for 4 in Wisconsin

    by Korkenzieher on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 02:19:20 PM PDT

  •  Maybe people checked the back-story on the (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Smoh, Puddytat

    Marquette poll and pollsters?!

    "I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in 'A,' 'B,' 'C,' and 'D.' Just who do they think they are?" Barry Goldwater

    by ranton on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 02:28:08 PM PDT

  •  Wisdom of the crowd (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JVolvo, Puddytat

    Intrade is just the same as any other gambling entity. It reacts to bets made on particular outcomes by adjusting the odds, which can lead others to change their bet. A possible explanation is that someone has gotten some information not available to the general public. They have used this information to place a bet, maybe a big bet. Other people see that bet and say "wait a minute, something must have changed. Maybe I better hedge my earlier bets".

    It's just like people on a sinking ocean liner reacting to a rumor that there are lifeboats available on the other side of the ship. A few people hear the rumor, start to move towards the other side, other people notice, and pretty soon everyone heads for the other side of the ship, regardless of whether the rumor is true.... the wisdom of the crowd....

    If this is based on a rumor, the rush to hedge bets will subside and the odds will stabilize somewhere south of what they have been. If there is a kernel of truth, soon that truth will become known to more people and the slide in the odds will accelerate.

    Possibly you have noticed an indication that bad news on Mr. Walker is about to surface. I remember somebody reporting last week or so that he had personally observed Walker apparently leaving a location (in Milwaukee??) somewhat surreptitiously and the diarist supposed that it might have something to do with the ongoing investigation of his former cronies from his mayoral days.

    Found it! ForestLake made this post.

    ahhhhh.... rumors, rumors, rumors....

    OK. And now we begin the part of the show where we pull out individual words and phrases of the commenter to try to determine the "real" meaning of the comment.... let the games begin.

    by hillbrook green on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 02:38:01 PM PDT

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