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Leading Off:

VA-Sen: Roanoke College's numbers on the Virginia Senate race have always been decided outliers, showing leads (often large ones) for Republican George Allen while every other pollster has seen a tossup or an edge for Democrat Tim Kaine. Tuesday's survey data is no different, with Allen up 44-36 among likely voters and 46-39 among registered voters... but I think I know why. It looks like Roanoke failed Survey Design 101, asking about horserace matchups well after some out-there questions about respondents' personal commitment to Christianity. For instance, here's one question that came just before the Kaine-Allen test:

To help describe your faith, would you say that you agree or disagree with each of the following statements:

     The Bible is the word of God.

     Christians should share their faith in Jesus with others who might not already believe.

     Salvation only comes through Jesus and not through the practice of other religions.

Holy smokes! And the presidential trial heat (which has Romney up a very improbable six points among LVs) is buried even further down, after questions like:
Thinking about your vote for President, how important is it for a candidate to have very strong religious beliefs. Is it very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all?
These kinds of questions are almost guaranteed to prime voters against Democrats, and especially Barack Obama, who has been the target of years-long smear campaigns about his religion. Question order really matters, and if you want to conduct a survey properly, you save potentially inflammatory or leading topics until after you've asked the basic election questions. Roanoke really needs to take some serious quality control measures, because this is not a proper way to structure a poll.

1Q Fundraising:

CA-26: Tony Strickland (R): $770K raised

CO-07: Joe Coors (R): $449K raised

FL-10: Val Demings (D): $330K raised, $484K cash-on-hand

IL-10: Rep. Bob Dold! (R): $602K raised

KY-04: Thomas Massie (R): $150K raised (plus $80K self-loan)

MN-Sen: Pete Hegseth (R): $160K raised (in March), $130K cash-on-hand

MO-Sen: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D): $2.3 mil raised, $6 mil cash-on-hand

NH-02: Annie Kuster (D): $350K raised, $1 mil cash-on-hand

NM-01: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D): $205K raised, $344K cash-on-hand

NV-04: Steven Horsford (D): $260K raised, $465K cash-on-hand

VA-02: Paul Hirschbiel (D): $325K raised, $670K cash-on-hand

WA-01: Laura Ruderman (D): $103K raised, $220K cash-on-hand

WI-Sen: Mark Neumann (R): $650K raised

Race Ratings:

• We're changing our rating on one race and initiating coverage on another:

ME-Sen: Ever since Dem Rep. Chellie Pingree declined to run for Olympia Snowe's open Senate seat, independent former Gov. Angus King appeared to be the frontrunner, but the initial picture was too fuzzy for us to rate this as anything other than a Tossup. Now, though, we have further confirmation in the form of a recent poll from the Maine People's Resource Center, which shows King with a higher share of the vote than Democrats and Republicans combined in a three-way matchup. While this race feels like it'll wind up as Likely Independent by election day, we don't like to chase individual polls too hard, so for now, we're rating the contest Lean Independent.

WI-Gov: We had been waiting on two developments in order to rate the recall election of GOP Gov. Scott Walker. First, we wanted the state's Government Accountability Board to officially certify the race, and second, we wanted to see whether Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett would enter the contest. Both of those things did indeed come to pass, and Barrett's position in the polls convinces us that we should rate this unusual race a Tossup.

Senate:

AZ-Sen: Self-funding businessman Wil Cardon, struggling badly in the GOP primary polls against Rep. Jeff Flake, is pouring in another $264K of his own money on a new TV ad touting his extreme anti-immigrant positions, including his support for Arizona's notorious SB1070 immigration law. You can watch the ad at the link or below:

MA-Sen: Rasmussen: Elizabeth Warren (D): 46 (44), Scott Brown (R-inc): 45 (49)

NE-Sen: AG Jon Bruning may be the frontrunner for the GOP Senate nod, but that never meant he'd have an easy time of it. A number of conservative organizations aren't happy with his candidacy, and now the Club for Growth is piling on with a $150K ad buy. The spot attacks Bruning as a free-spender who supported the stimulus, a pretty egregious black mark on the resume of anyone seeking a Republican nomination for anything. You can watch the spot at the link or below:

NY-Sen (PDF): Siena has head-to-heads for the New York Senate race, and they're as predictable and boring as ever. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand crushes her Republican opponents as per usual, beating Bob Turner 65-24, George Maragos 65-21, and Wendy Long 63-23. But (and I think this is a first), Siena also has GOP primary numbers... which are also pretty uninteresting, sadly. Turner is at 19, Long 10, and Maragos 5, with two thirds undecided—not that it matters who Republicans tap.

PA-Sen: This is a pretty good ad from rich guy Steve Welch, attacking fellow rich guy Tom Smith as a "Republican impersonator" who was a registered Democrat for 42 years—"longer than Obama." (Both men are seeking the GOP Senate nomination.) I'm a little surprised to see Welch go here, given that he supported a number of Democrats himself in recent years, but I guess he figures Smith's much longer tenure as a Dem is more damning that his own brief dalliance. Welch also raises some ancient oppo that surfaced last month, about Smith supporting tax increases when he served as mayor of a tiny town back in the 1970s. Anyhow, you can watch this spot—which has a catchy opening—at the link or below:

WI-Sen: Conservative group Citizens United has just endorsed ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, but one thing he doesn't need is their money, seeing as he's richer than god. So this is more of a signifier, marking Neumann as acceptable to movement conservatives. You'd think that might not matter, since any serious tea partier already knows how much of an apostate ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson is, but Neumann's problem is really Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, with whom he appears to be splitting the right-wing vote in the GOP primary. Of course, the recent entrance of another rich guy, moderate-ish businessman Eric Hovde, might scramble the picture even further, but we haven't seen any four-way polling yet.

Gubernatorial:

WA-Gov, WA-01: While I sympathize with Jay Inslee's desire to avoid flying cross-country on a near-weekly basis, I'm starting to wonder if instead of resigning from the House to focus on his gubernatorial job he should have just stuck with his day job and done a really crappy job at it, like everybody else (such as Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, and probably a whole herd of Senate candidates). The problem here is that the GOP now has a handy issue in terms of the expense of the special election to replace him (which coincides with the regular election, but will involve added expenses because it'll involve different district lines than the regular election at the same time). The GOP is touting a $1 million cost, relying on a memo from Republican SoS Sam Reed. The actual figure from the state is $225K for "voter education" to explain what the hell is going on, but as long as the parties are quibbling about the costs of the election, Inslee is on the defensive, and explaining... and you know what they say you're also doing when you're explaining. (David Jarman)

House:

CA-02: Assemblyman Jared Huffman is out with an internal poll from pollster FM3, showing him leading the all-party field with 24% of the vote. As for Huffman's fellow Democrats, businesswoman Stacey Lawson is at 9, activist Norman Solomon at 7, and Marin County Supervisor Susan Adams at 5. A pair of Republicans, Dan Roberts and Michael Halliwell, are also at 5 apiece, but under California's new top-two primary system, the top two finishers regardless of party will advance to the November general election. This poll, combined with the district's strong Democratic lean (it went 71% for Barack Obama), indicates that neither of the Republicans will move on to round two, meaning the fall face-off would be an all-Dem affair.

IL-16: I really didn't feel like touching this story—which offers some more, ahem, backstory to the whole Eric Cantor-Don Manzullo intra-GOP feud—but click through if you want to see some serious (alleged) ugliness.

MN-06: Great news for Democrats: Wealthy hotel operator Jim Graves, who first emerged as a possible candidate just a couple of weeks ago, will indeed launch a campaign against the Republican queen of crazy, Michele Bachmann. Graves' non-partisan, business-y background seems like a good fit for this district, which John McCain won 55-43, making it the reddest in Minnesota. And his personal wealth means he'll be able to compete with Bachmann's hyper-charged fundraising machine. First, though, Graves has to score his party's nomination, and there are two other Democrats already running: businessman Brian McGoldrick and attorney Anne Nolan.

NY-13: What a shock: Less than a week after publicly expressing doubts about whether he'd continue his congressional bid, Vince Morgan has dropped his challenge to his old boss, Rep. Charlie Rangel. Instead, he's endorsing state Sen. Adriano Espaillat to take on Rangel in the Democratic primary.

OR-04: One of the biggest riddles of our time has been solved: Matt Groening has finally admitted that the Springfield that the Simpsons live in is Springfield, Oregon. (Given Groening's Portland roots... and the fact that major characters are named Flanders, Kearney, Lovejoy, Quimby, and Terwilliger, it always seemed likely to me.) At any rate, this means that their corrupt congressman who sells Springfield National Forest is Peter DeFazio, that their governor is not Mary Bailey, but rather John Kitzhaber (does that make Chris Dudley Mr. Burns?), and that their mayor for many years wasn't Joe Quimby but the hapless Sid Leiken. (David Jarman)

PA-12: I like Keegan Gibson's summary of Monday night's debate between Reps. Mark Critz and Jason Altmire because it shows you just how bizarro this primary really is, with two conservative Democrats actually forced to pretend like they really are Democrats and tying themselves in knots to do so. Of course, this is something that would never happen were it not for redistricting, which makes this situation so unusual—and interesting.

Other Races:

VA-LG: Prince William Board of County Supervisors chair Corey Stewart says he will soon announce his candidacy for lieutenant governor, a post that isn't up for election until 2013. That would make him the first person to officially declare for the seat, which is being left open because LG Bill Bolling is running for governor. However, several other Republicans are in the mix, as are a number of Democrats, with former White House Chief Technology Officer Aneesh Chopra seemingly closest to an actual bid.

WI-LG: While most attention is (rightly) focused on the recall of GOP Gov. Scott Walker, his no. 2, Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, will also be on the ballot. (The two were elected in 2010 on the same ticket but must run separately in the recall.) The Republican State Leadership Committee (the GOP equivalent of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee) is therefore out with an ad touting Kleefisch's achievements as LG... though really, it's just a list of Walker's "achievements" (dubious as they are) with her name also slapped on `em. (You can watch the spot at the link.) Kleefisch will most likely face Democrat Mahlon Mitchell, the head of the Wisconsin firefighters union, in the recall.

Grab Bag:

Census: If you thought that the numbers from the 2010 Census count for New York City, especially for Queens, were a little on the light side, you're not alone. All manner of NYC politicians called attention to strangely flat growth in Queens (a gain of only 1,343 between the 2000 and 2010 censuses), saying that contradicted their own internal numbers. Adding some fuel to that fire are new 2011 estimates from the Census Bureau that just came out, suggesting that Queens gained a whopping 17,126 people in the year since the 2010 census (or else suggesting that the 2010 count missed a lot of people). (David Jarman)

Demographics: Here are some very interesting data points from a new study on Latinos, and on their likelihood of voting Democratic or Republican. The most important factor seems to be religion: Evangelical Latinos are almost evenly split between Ds and Rs (47/45), while Catholics are much more solidly Dem (60/33) and secular Latinos even more so (65/27). They also find a significant split between the pre-Vatican II generation of Catholics (54/38) and the post-Vatican II cohort (62/30), though that's really just a fancy way of saying "old" and "young." I'd be curious to know, though, which group is growing faster among Latinos: the evangelicals, or the seculars? (David Jarman)

Pres-by-CD: We have 2008 presidential election results according to new congressional district lines for three more states, courtesy jeffmd: Arizona, Mississippi, and Utah.

Redistricting Roundup:

AZ Redistricting: Arizona, which was one of just three states still waiting on preclearance of its maps under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, just got approval from the Dept. of Justice to use its new district lines this year, as expected. The other states with pending preclearance issues, according to Justin Levitt's indispensible site, are Texas (which is embroiled in long-running litigation) and Florida. And once New Hampshire finally finishes the remapping process, it, too, will have to seek preclearance.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  WI-Sen: Amazing haul from Tammy Baldwin! (13+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 05:04:46 AM PDT

  •  So, it looks like we will have (6+ / 0-)

    Sen King (I-ME)

    which I think is pretty funny, linguistically.

  •  Wow the AP is really (9+ / 0-)

    shilling for Romney:

    http://www.google.com/...

    It concludes:

    Even then, Bush's unpopularity helped fuel Obama's campaign and deflected some of the anti-GOP sentiment away from the actual nominee.

    This time, the incumbent president is on the ballot, with unemployment above 8 percent. The tea party, which didn't exist in 2008, is a potent and unpredictable force.

    And Romney suddenly is free of meaningful primary worries. That leaves him able to focus the full force of his fundraising and campaigning skills against Obama.

    While it starts,
    With Obama saddled with a still-ailing economy and a divisive health care law, and Romney riding a wave of blistering TV ads, the fall election is unlikely to dwell on "hope," ''change" and other uplifting themes from four years ago. Much of the nation's ire then was aimed at departing President George W. Bush, and Obama had no extensive record to defend.
    Followed by a big, and utterly bogus quote from Romney. (Really now? Obama is the one dividing people? Says the man catapaulted to his position by the most negative and nasty campaign in recent history?).

    The only attempt at moderation is this:

    Obama, campaigning in Florida, said the choice this fall will be as stark as in the 1964 contest between Lyndon Johnson and Barry Goldwater, which resulted in one of the biggest Democratic landslides ever. That election included dramatic and controversial moments, such as Goldwater's defense of "extremism in the defense of liberty" and a devastating TV ad suggesting a Goldwater presidency would lead to nuclear war.

    Obama didn't mention Romney by name. His top aides have shown less restraint, however.

    So, they manage to ding Obama, give Romney a favorable start up, and then imply that Obama is calling Romney a nuclear extremist and use phrases like "less restraint" which has a negative connotation, all the while stacking the ending against Obama as well.

    They don't use any polling, they only repeat Republican talking points about the state of the country's affairs, without subjectifying them or modifying them with anything, like "Though Democrats say that Obama inherited an economy with underlying flaws" or "But recent months of solid job growth have Democrats more positive".

    And this is the kind of shit that passes for front-page, non-partisan news coverage? There's a reason that people like Vicki Hartzler, Rick Santorum, Michelle Bachmann, Mark Neumann, Allen West, and Chuck Grassley get elected in a Democracy that is supposed to temper and moderate things.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

    by ArkDem14 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 05:57:40 AM PDT

  •  Final Tally From MN SD-20...... (10+ / 0-)

    DFLer Lyle Koenen wins decisively with 54.4% compared to Republican Gregg Kulberg's 40.5% and IPer Leon Greenslit's 5.1%.   Koenen took five of the district's seven counties, including his home county of Chippewa as well as Big Stone, Swift, Lac qui Parle, and Yellow Medicine.  Kulberg took his home county of Renville along with Lincoln County.   Greenslit is also from Renville County and got 13.2% of the vote there, easily his best county.

    Final Numerical Tallies....
    Chippewa County--892 Koenen, 405 Kulberg, 20 Greenslit
    Swift County--759 Koenen, 427 Kulberg, 29 Greenslit
    Lac qui Parle County--565 Koenen, 319 Kulberg, 26 Greenslit
    Big Stone County--389 Koenen, 320 Kulberg, 32 Greenslit
    Yellow Medicine County--504 Koenen, 438 Kulberg, 27 Greenslit
    Renville County--620 Koenen, 752 Kulberg, 209 Greenslit
    Lincoln County--191 Koenen, 234 Kulberg, 21 Kulberg

  •  NJ-10 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ndrwmls10

    DKE user Dem4ever's prediction has come true: former Gov/State Senate President Dick Codey endorses Ron C. Rice.

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 06:12:06 AM PDT

    •  Who does that help? (0+ / 0-)

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 06:14:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  as I posted in last night's digest (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dem4evr

        I think both Smith and Rice help Gill. Even with this high-profile endorsement for Rice, I'm still unconvinced that this race isn't a Payne vs. Gill affair. Payne is going to clean up in most of Essex (although I expect Gill to win the parts in her legislative district barring a total collapse), so I think Smith and Rice are just helping split the Essex vote for Gill.

        22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 06:25:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Kinda agreed (0+ / 0-)

          Although this endorsement could become a game-changer in some of the whiter Essex suburbs where Gill is favored (South Orange comes to mind), her strength outside of Essex makes her the clear #2. While Rice might eat into her suburban Essex turf a little more as a consequence of this endorsement, Rice is looking much stronger than I would have expected in his hometown (hence, last week's endorsements from two anti-Booker city councilors). For that reason, I think those endorsements were much more beneficial to Gill. So yes, while I also remain unconvinced that this isn't a Gill-Payne affair (with Payne favored at this point), I don't see how Codey's endorsement helps Gill, who needs healthy margins in those whiter Essex suburbs.

          OK-1 (home), DC-AL (college). -8.25, -7.54

          by dem4evr on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 07:07:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Why would Gill have been favored (0+ / 0-)

            in South Orange anyway? I just assumed that Payne's name + A line in Essex County would have given him a natural advantage in such places. I've always seen her path to victory as taking Montclair, Orange, and East Orange and stacking up big margins in Hudson/Union while holding Payne to weak pluralities in the remainder of Essex; I think she can afford to lose West Orange, South Orange, Bloomfield, Glen Ridge, and Maplewood. (And I think Smith could very well win Irvington with room to spare, which helps her.) I do agree, however, that she is probably a slight underdog against Payne...for now.

            22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 08:59:50 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  How does the filing situation (0+ / 0-)

              effect her?

              20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 09:02:18 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  You mean (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera, dem4evr

                the fact that she apparently only filed for the regular election? Honestly, I'm not sure what to make of that. The new district contains more of Montclair (her hometown) and Hudson County (where she has major institutional support) as well as some of those outlying suburbs where Dick Codey is king. However, it also completely withdraws from Elizabeth, the base of Nia Gill's bffl Ray Lesniak (although it does gain more of Union County in general, including the entirety of Linden - under the purview of State Sen. Nick Scutari, who is neutral AFAIK). In the end I think the new district may be slightly more favorable to her than the old, but I am wondering why she didn't file for the special election.

                22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 09:07:22 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  I think Payne is still heavily favored... (0+ / 0-)

              and this endorsement certainly helps him. Gill does not want to be competing with Rice for votes in the district's outer Essex burbs. New Jersey Democrats are a racially polarized bunch and Gill will appear more palatable to white voters despite Payne's support from some of the county's most powerful white political leaders. Between representing white-majority suburbs and her contrast against a Newark machine candidate, she's well-positoned to do well in the South Oranges and Bloomfields of the district. If Codey makes ome inroads for Rice on the district's white turf, however, Gill is screwed.

              At the very least, though, that possibility will be canceled out by Rice and Payne competing for votes in Newark. Don't get me wrong, I think Payne will probably run up ridiculous numbers in the city that could potentially seal the election for him. At the very least, though, Rice's broad-base of support within the city (he's seen as a Booker ally yet he's racking up all these anti-Booker endorsements) will make a big enough dent into Payne's margin.

              OK-1 (home), DC-AL (college). -8.25, -7.54

              by dem4evr on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 10:12:50 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  White-majority suburbs? (0+ / 0-)

                Orange is 5% white. East Orange is 2% white. Montclair is majority white, but not overwhelmingly (58%). (Clifton isn't in the district, but it too is barely majority white, at 53%.) Now granted, she did represent Glen Ridge (83%) and Woodland Park (70%) last decade, but those were small and don't change my point, which is that her district is clearly minority-majority and she hasn't necessarily had to refine her appeal to white voters.

                In fact, I would point out that while Ron L. Rice's district is also minority-majority, he's had to deal with Glen Ridge and Nutley (75%) post-redistricting, and he hung onto Bloomfield (47%) as well. So he's also had to deal with heavily white constituencies, and if they like him, chances are they're fine with his son too. So really, I don't think there's an argument that those suburbs are any more Gill's natural domain than Rice's to begin with, and if nothing else I think they'd actually go for Payne simply because of the A line, all else being equal.

                Like I said before, I don't think they are necessarily part of Gill's path to victory. I think in a theoretical situation where she barely edges past Payne, it's because she won big in her LD and Hudson/Union and the vote was split in the rest of Essex. If she were to win South Orange, Maplewood, etc., I think that would simply be icing on the cake (i.e. she'd be winning by a few points anyway).

                22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 10:36:51 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  NY-06: Rory "I can't live with myself" Lancman (0+ / 0-)

    comes off pretty gross in this article. A little too much ambition.

    That afternoon, Mr. Lancman dropped his bid. A few hours later, Mr. Ackerman decided to drop his too, and to retire. So Mr. Lancman embarked on a furious few days of lining up Queens County’s support, telling people, according to one Queens lawmaker, “I can’t live with myself if I don’t run for Congress.”

    The first part of that effort, however, was to deter other people who may have wanted the seat from seeking it. He let it be known to his colleagues that if he won the seat, he didn’t plan on being there long—the implication being, according to one he spoke with, that he would soon seek higher office. He tweeted a photo of one of the other contenders for the nod, fellow Assembly member Grace Meng, sitting in the speaker’s chair in the State Assembly chambers, and wrote below it “Speaker Meng!”—suggesting perhaps Ms. Meng would be better served staying in the Assembly. When another possible contender, Mark Weprin, was pictured in The New York Times in an article about the seat, Mr. Lancman texted him, according to a Council source, “You look very Speaker-like in that photo!” (Both Ms. Meng and Mr. Weprin are often mentioned as candidates for the future speakerships of the legislative bodies; when Mr. Weprin didn’t get the Queens County nod he decided not to seek the seat.)

    Still, when he was asked if he had any reticence about running against a path-breaking candidate, he dead-panned, “You mean the first county leader’s cousin to be elected to Congress?” and added, “What is compelling to me is that we send people to City Hall and to Albany and to Washington who are going to be leaders and champions on issues.”
    If Mr. Lancman was circumspect about the possibility that Ms. Crowley was a plant, he was far less so this time around.

    “County and Meng are in full panic mode so they concocted a scheme to reach down and find the hackiest hack in all of hackdom—you got that? The hackiest hack in all of hackdom with a Jewish surname to try to siphon off Jewish votes,” he said in a phone follow-up. “The county fundamentally doesn’t understand how to win big elections … they picked David Weprin last summer to make some kind of political deal, an inside political chess move based on the redistricting process rather than who would be the strongest candidate.”

    Michael Reich, executive secretary of the Queens County Democratic Party, was livid at the accusation. “If he had any decency he would have picked up the phone and called me before he started his attack,” he said. “He needs to grow up. This is America. If someone decides they want to run for Congress—even Rory Lancman—they can run. Who says Rory Lancman should be the only candidate? Rory Lancman.”

    Mr. Lancman, undaunted, agreed with at least part of that. “They thought I would quietly go away like almost everyone does,” he said, “but I don’t need anyone’s permission to run for Congress.”

    http://www.politicker.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 06:13:55 AM PDT

    •  Eh, I feel a bit bad for the guy (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, dufffbeer

      He was doing what was necessary to take on Turner then the district got completely squashed.

      29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

      by Marcus Graly on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 06:47:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Everyone and their mother (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        R30A, sacman701

        knew that district was going to disappear. He was just angling for another seat and trying to raise money. There must be a reason why Ackerman waited until Lancman dropped his bid to announce his retirement. The guy is just too much.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 07:18:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  He comes across as very entitled. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        R30A

        Entitled to the 6th Congressional District. It comes across very strongly.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 08:08:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  NY-06: Why I like Lancman (0+ / 0-)

    Rory Lancman is one of my favorite candidates this cycle, and I've been kind of trying to put into words why, fortunately I don't have to -- someone else did for me; here's a good article that I think rather encapsulates why I find him so irresistible: http://www.politicker.com/...

    Almost as soon as the ballots were counted, Mr. Lancman began preparing to run against Mr. Turner. “We’ve always had good strong Democrats in this district—Anthony Weiner, Nita Lowey—and then I wake up and we’ve got a Republican … My interest crystallized within days.”

    The district still seemed likely to be eliminated, but Mr. Lancman started what he termed “a shadow campaign” against Mr. Turner.

    “For six or seven months I didn’t know if there was going to be district or not be a district. Some people say I am on a fool’s quest, a fool’s errand—is that what it’s called? A fool’s errand?—and that in the end it is all going to be for naught. And they were at least 50 percent right.”

    Aside from being smart the guy just has boundless energy and ambition, this is what I look for in candidates:
    “I look at that district and I think, well, that is the perfect district for me. My house is in much of the district. I have lived in it my entire life. I am going to run in that district.”

    Those plans were upended, though, when Gary Ackerman, a popular congressman from Long Island, found himself living in the district of another long-time rep; even though he was 69 years old, he decided he would move to Queens and run for the seat.

    So once again Mr. Lancman started a shadow campaign—contrary to advice from supporters—against Mr. Ackerman even though the congressman had one time employed him as an intern.

    That afternoon, Mr. Lancman dropped his bid. A few hours later, Mr. Ackerman decided to drop his too, and to retire. So Mr. Lancman embarked on a furious few days of lining up Queens County’s support, telling people, according to one Queens lawmaker, “I can’t live with myself if I don’t run for Congress.”
    This guy is just priceless, and he has a wicked sense of humor:
    He tweeted a photo of one of the other contenders for the nod, fellow Assembly member Grace Meng, sitting in the speaker’s chair in the State Assembly chambers, and wrote below it “Speaker Meng!”—suggesting perhaps Ms. Meng would be better served staying in the Assembly. When another possible contender, Mark Weprin, was pictured in The New York Times in an article about the seat, Mr. Lancman texted him, according to a Council source, “You look very Speaker-like in that photo!”

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 06:37:13 AM PDT

    •   I have trouble supporting a representative... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fearlessfred14

      ...who doesn't know who the representative from his area is.
      Nita Lowey???

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 07:01:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Lowey used to represent (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        R30A

        some of Queens.  See here:

        The 18th District was created in 1813. For many years it was the upper Manhattan district. It was the east side Manhattan seat in the 1970s and then a Bronx district in the 1980s, Following the 1992 remap it became a Westchester based district with narrow corridor through the Bronx and a large portion of central Queens. The 2002 remap gave those Queens areas to the 5th District and the 18th absorbed some Rockland areas due to the deconstruction of the old Orange-Rockland 20th District.
        And the 5th District is Ackerman's current district.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 07:25:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  damn (0+ / 0-)

          the map I checked did not have detail into NYC. I didnt expect a district with so much of westchester would scoop up that much of queens. (also, I was looking at 1983's district 20.)

          Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

          by R30A on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 09:30:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  The 1992 districts are (0+ / 0-)

        here.  And here is the 18th.  No, I don't know why they would do that, either.  

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 07:30:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  This is pretty amusing (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits

      Just above, ndrwmls also blockquoted the same article extensively to demonstrate why he doesn't like Lancman. Was this in response, or just coincidence?

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 04:07:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Yes, Are We Really Supposed to Believe (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vote4Obamain2012, bear83, dc1000

    that evangelicals in the Southern part of Va are wildly enthusiastic about Mitt Romney?

  •  FL 18: West says 80 House Democrats are (14+ / 0-)

    Communists.

    http://www.palmbeachpost.com/...

    Even Joe McCarthy didn't go that far.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 06:56:18 AM PDT

  •  Roanoke College poll (21+ / 0-)

    The professor who is in charge of the Roanoke polling operation, Harry Wilson, knows what he is doing when he crafts the order of his poll questions the way he does.  He clearly identified himself as a conservative when I took his Intro to Poli Sci class way back when (in fact, his partisan hackery is one of the reasons I entered Roanoke a poil sci major and graduated with an English and American Literature degree).  This far-from-impartial observer wants a certain result to impact the narrative of the race (since his polling is always reported on, both locally in the Roanoke Times, which is the region's biggest newspaper, and often statewide, the RC polls definitely have some influence), so he designs his poll to help ensure that he reaches the result he wants.

    •  Thanks for the inside track (11+ / 0-)

      I was just thinking the poll skewing really had to be deliberate. No one with a history of doing polls doesn't know that asking questions on religion before the horse race biases the results.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 07:09:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It didn't look like something you do by mistake (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        umasslefty, SaoMagnifico, itskevin

        In fact, it looked almost like a push poll, with rather carefully crafted questions. Note in particular that the last question refers to "strong religious beliefs" without reference to which religion before asking the respondent to choose between a Protestant and a Mormon.

        Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

        by fearlessfred14 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 07:18:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Focus on question choice/ordering misplaced (7+ / 0-)

        Yes those things matter and bias the result, but not nearly as much as the poll's rigged sampling.  DKEer terjeanderson detailed the breakdown yesterday that the sample is much older and much whiter than the real electorate, and those things matter even more in Virginia than in many other states where they still matter plenty enough.

        Trade a black voter or a young white NoVA voter for an old white man, and that's practically a 1-for-1 trade from Dem to GOP.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 07:21:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I wonder if he had this question (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      eps62

      Did you know that the foreign born Barack Obama is the anti-Christ who has come to Earth to eat little children for breakfast and force everyone to be gay and have health insurance?

      Yes or No.

      After that, he probably asked the Presidential preference question.

      Conservatives are nothing more that lying sacks of shit.

    •  Rec'd as a fellow Maroon (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      umasslefty

      I went to Roanoke as a history major and took several Poli Sci classes, but none from Dr. Wilson.

      Their polling started, as I recall, in 1994 when I was a student there and nailed that year's US Senate race just about right (Chuck Robb led Ollie North by 3 or 4 points in their survey, which was right in line with the ultimate result.)  I don't know what has happened to their polling operation since.

      It seems to me, though, that to get reliable polling toplines the "horse race" questions should be asked first, not after a bunch of questions on other subjects, especially those such as religion that are often indicative of political preference.  

      (And for those who are wondering, Roanoke is affiliated with the ELCA--Evangelical Lutheran Church of America.  But you don't have to be Lutheran or Christian, or religious in any way to attend, and there is no religiously inspired code of conduct or similar set of rules there.  It definitely isn't anything like Liberty or Regent, in case that's what anyone is thinking; if it were I would never have even considered it.)

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 07:50:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I speak as a frequent poll respondent to say.... (0+ / 0-)

        ...that the horse race question does, indeed, appear first in most telephone surveys, or if not first then in the top 4-5 questions after maybe candidated approval or favorability questions.

        This has been my experience on polls to which I've responded from Presidentials all the way down to my county supervisor's race last year.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 07:57:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Dr. Wilson (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        As far as I can tell, it's Dr. Wilson's objectives that have changed over the years.  While he made no mystery of his partisan tendencies while I was there (I remember a particularly lively exchange with him when I suggested that elections should be exclusively publicly financed), I don't feel like they impacted his work as a pollster, which he discussed quite a bit in class.  If you look at his polls and the results he's gotten over the last couple of cycles, though, it appears that he has an agenda that he is trying to push in the public sphere.  

        Also, I don't know if you read about or watched Dr. Wilson's recent interview with Donald Rumsfeld, but it was not exactly filled with hard-hitting questions.

      •  Maroon? (0+ / 0-)

        You stole our color! :P

        22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 09:12:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Gov: The AFL-CIO of Wisconsin (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    walja, dc1000, eps62

    has endorsed Falk. They represent 1,000 unions and over 250,000 members in the state.

    http://www.kathleenfalk.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 07:14:55 AM PDT

  •  I guess it's the word of god now. (6+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 07:23:52 AM PDT

  •  NY-06: Liz Crowley has recieved the (0+ / 0-)

    endorsement of the Mason Tenders District Council. Grace Meng is expected to role out her first union endorsement from the "powerful" Hotel Trades Council.

    http://www.politicker.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 07:50:22 AM PDT

  •  Walker for Vice President? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fearlessfred14

    Heh, sure, why not!

    http://www.politico.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 07:59:38 AM PDT

    •  Here's the funny thing (0+ / 0-)

      Cantanese actually says that former Gov. Walker would be a better pick than Gov. Walker if he wins the recall.

      Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 08:06:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Romney blowing it this morning (10+ / 0-)

    So Mitt is pursuing this asinine line of attack that Obama has caused women great economic hardship during his Presidency, and Mit's senior policy advisor does a press call on the subject.

    After a number of falsehoods and empty assertions that reporters refuse to accept merely at face value, the campaign refuses to answer when asked what specific Obama policies have hurt women, and then answer "we'll get back to you" when asked if Romney supports the Lilly Ledbetter Equal Pay Act.

    Ouch!

    This is example number 124,539 why Team Mitt is in over their heads, and I'm confident the President will win.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 08:00:22 AM PDT

  •  MA-Sen: Check out Brown's email pitch post-Q1 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, itskevin

    http://bluemassgroup.com/...

    Dear Friends,I want you to know exactly what we are up against:

    Thanks to you and thousands of others, our campaign raised $3.4 million in the last quarter, but Professor Elizabeth Warren raised twice that amount: $6.9 million. How in the world could she raise so much?

    She is a far-left ideologue and her liberal friends from across the country are helping her: She has the Harry Reid Democrats, the Hollywood Crowd, the Far Left Juggernaut, the Occupy Wall Street Bunch, and the Massachusetts Machine raising money hand-over-clenched fist.

    This is the #1 Senate race in the country and our rival will have virtually unlimited money to burn. You have been a terrific supporter, but I wanted you to know what we are facing.

    Warren’s fundraising is breaking every record!

    Will you help me again?

    Your online contribution will help stop Professor Warren’s election to the U.S. Senate.

    WE MUST WIN . . . if she wins, she will take her place among the most ardent leftist ideologues in the United States Senate.

        Warren will raise taxes. I won’t.
        Warren is soft on illegal immigration. I’m not.
        Warren wants to go even further than Obamacare. I want it repealed.
        Warren believes in big government power. I believe in people power.

    This is why Washington insiders, celebrities, elites, occupiers and leftists are pouring money into their attack campaign against me, and why I need your generous help again, right now, whether it’s for $25, $50, $100 or some other amount, to fight back hard and win.

    Thanks for your continued support.

    Senator Scott Brown
    The People’s Seat

    Also, Warren emailed out a pitch.

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 08:02:20 AM PDT

  •  WI-Gov: Barretts first ad. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, dc1000, itskevin

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 08:16:55 AM PDT

    •  So much better than Falk's ad (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, sawolf, bumiputera, itskevin

      Unlike Falk, he didn't neglect to mention Democrats' absolute number one hit on Walker, that Wisconsin had the worst jobs record in the country last year.  This is right on the money in both atmospherics and policy content.

      •  Considering it was her introductory ad (0+ / 0-)

        I thought it was great. It's hard to knock it, though many on here have tried and will try. I thought she had excellent atmospherics. Sitting at her kitchen table and talking about the horrible dysfunction of Wisconsin government and the need to heal the wounds. Barrett's did a great job as well. I think this is a time were particular biases against a candidate may come into play.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 08:49:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  As long as Barrett wins primary... (0+ / 0-)

        The idea that Falk is the union candidate, Walker is the far right ideologue while Barrett paints himself as the moderate uniter could help him come the battle with Walker.  

        I said all along that the Dems needed to run an elder statesman type like Obey or Kohl.  

        I hope to see ads where they use the fake Koch brother call where Walker brags about how he brought his cabinet together and how they were going to drop the bomb on the Unions and how the cabinet was surprised because it was never mentioned before that very moment.

        Attack Walker on losing jobs, savaging education, hiding true agenda/attacking unions, and tearing apart Wisconsin.  
         

        •  I really dislike when (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          Democrats continue the meme of the scarey "union" candidate.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 08:53:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Perception is reality... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca

            And there will be reason why operation chaos Republican voters vote for Falk in the primary.  

            It will be much easier for Walker to run against Walker given all of her union endorsements, by saying how she'll be indebted to the union bosses etc.  

            Republicans have waged a successful smear campaign against unions for 30+ years - to beat Walker it will have to be more than just the collective bargaining issue.

            •  Operation chaos is a made up (0+ / 0-)

              idea from your own brilliant mind. It's not as if Falk is running solely on collective bargaining. It would be a complete and utter lie to say she has. In fact she's spent more time talking about other issues, like the assault on women's rights, corruption, job losses, and those education cuts from last year.

              20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 09:15:32 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  "Your own brilliant mind"? (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                dc1000, jncca

                Not the friendliest interaction here, it seems.

                There will be some operation chaos going on in Wisconsin in the primaries. I'm not sure who it will benefit, but given all the actions we've seen from Republicans in the state over the past year, it would be surprising if they didn't try to gum up the works.

                I don't see why saying that would be deserving of such a snide reaction.

                •  There may very well be (0+ / 0-)

                  Republicans who vote for Falk, but to emphatically suggest there is such a concerted effort and that it would be the only way she wins really is not a fair characterization of this race. And he tops it off with his terrible memes about the dreaded "union" candidate. Those who are susceptible to that meme are already voting for Walker. I'd say if Walker used that meme it might drive the undecideds into Barrett or Falk's hands. They will talk about jobs, education, women's rights, and other very important issues. He has an extremely pessimistic world view and it bleeds into his commentary.

                  20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                  by ndrwmls10 on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 11:02:56 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  I can't watch it, what's it like? (0+ / 0-)

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 08:34:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Shocking Tweet of the day (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Mark27, bumiputera, dc1000

    here:

    Mitt Romney has no notable black endorsers, surrogates, or high-ranking campaign staffers in his orbit http://thebea.st/...
    (Via D. Bernstein.)  The linked story has even more comedy:
    Democratic consultants compared Romney's outreach unfavorably with George W. Bush’s efforts. Tad Devine recalled Bush’s 2000 campaign, which “conspicuously did a lot of outreach to the African-American community. Even thought it didn’t affect the numbers,” he said, “it did have a very favorable impact on the campaign,” allowing Bush “to portray himself as more moderate—a conservative, but a compassionate conservative.”
    [...]
    But in some ways, his campaign’s problem seems particular to Romney, not his party. An extensive list of “key supporters” of his 2008 presidential bid included groups of women, Hispanics, and Asian supporters, but not African-Americans. In contrast, his Republican rivals this year could all point to noteworthy black supporters or staffers. Newt Gingrich has former Rep. J.C. Watts and former presidential candidate Herman Cain on his “conservative Dream Team.” Ron Paul has an African-American spokesman, Gary Howard. Even Santorum had O'Neal Dozier, a controversial pastor and honorary chair of his Florida campaign, and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, the former Packers defensive end who endorsed him in Wisconsin.
    [...]
    “It’s just plain stupid," said demographer Joel Kotkin of the campaign's apparent neglect of black voters. “This is clearly a blind spot, perhaps because Romney’s generation of Mormons grew up in an all-white world,” he said, comparing it to "Obama’s preference for university professors over businessmen.”
    [...]
    Armstrong Williams, a prominent African-American conservative commentator, was more critical, blaming Romney’s campaign team for failing to cultivate black supporters and speculating that the candidate had been led astray by his advisers. With “the right advice, right backbone, [and the] gall to be audacious,” Williams predicted Romney could exceed 15 percent of the black vote, which would be four times the share John McCain garnered running against Obama in 2008.
    Even Santorum had O'Neal Dozier, dammit!  And yes, Mitt Romney could exceed 15% of the black vote against incumbent President Barack Obama!  Dream big!  Also, is Joel Klotkin a "demographer"?  He sounds more like an insult comic, since I don't really buy either of his claims.  

    (The article also references "George W. Bush’s 2004 margin of victory in Ohio, where he clinched a second term by upping his support among the state's African-American voters by just 5 percentage points."  I'm a little suspicious of that kind of claim, but his margin in Ohio did shrink from 2000 to 2004 overall, interestingly.)

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 08:18:24 AM PDT

    •  Also, a classic bad example (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000
      Democrats have dominated the black vote to the point where exit polls in key primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire registered 0% African-American participation.  In Mississippi, the most heavily African-American state in the country, only 2 percent of GOP primary voters were black.
      Only 1.1% of the population of New Hampshire is African-American, according to the last Census.  That one isn't the best example.  

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 08:26:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Romney is not comfortable with black people (0+ / 0-)

      A Mormon his age would have been raised being told blacks were inferior. He may not be prejudiced but I doubt he has had much interaction with to many AA.
      Also Mormons hang out with other Mormons and in general this is why he is probably uncomfortable with the average person let alone as an incredibly rich person most of the people he knows are probably also very rich.
      Romney is just the worst possible candidate they could have,if he should somehow win it would be a miracle.

    •  Republicans appeal to the Black community (0+ / 0-)

      not to sway Black votes, but to sway moderate Whites

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

      by jncca on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 12:26:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Biden Alert! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mark27, askew

    http://minnesota.publicradio.org/...

    I bet this event brings in more money that the cumulative total of all of her opponents combined.

  •  Thanks for info on Roanoke (0+ / 0-)

    I keep my own electoral map & that was a dramatic change. Whew!

    "All politics is national."

    by Auriandra on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 08:45:00 AM PDT

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