The international community's worst fears seem to be about to come true in Sudan. Sudan is on the brink of war with the newly independent state of South Sudan.
Sudan mobilises army over seizure of oilfield by South SudanThe Heglig oil field is Sudan's big source of export income from their customer and diplomatic patron China. South Sudan seems to be using sizing the Heglig oil field as a way to put economic pressure on Khartoum to back off of its campaign of aerial bombing in the south. The Guardian's piece wraps up with this hopeful quote from Zach Vertin of International Crisis Group:
James Copnall in Khartoum
Sudan has said it would mobilise its army against its southern neighbour after South Sudanese soldiers seized control of Heglig, the country's biggest oilfield on Tuesday, raising the prospect of outright war between the two states.
The African Union expressed "grave concern" over the incursion and called on South Sudan's army to withdraw immediately and unconditionally.
South Sudan, which says it was responding to aerial bombardments and a ground attack on its territory, has shown no desire to pull back. Instead its officials have reiterated claims that Heglig is part of their country.
"Despite the high rhetoric, both sides have for years calculated that there would be more to lose than gain from a return to full-scale war," said Vertin. "That still holds true, but as emotions run high amid a complex landscape of actors and interests, every new provocation threatens to alter the equation."Lets hope that Vertin's analysis holds true because this would be likely to be a war with two losers.