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Wisconsin state capitol
Wisconsin state capitol
Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 4/13-15. Likely voters. MoE: ±2.9% (2/23-26 results):
Tom Barrett (D): 45 (49)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 50 (46)
Hari Trivedi (I): 2
Undecided: 3 (3)

Kathleen Falk (D): 43 (48)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 50 (47)
Hari Trivedi (I): 3
Undecided: 3 (5)

Doug La Follette (D): 40 (45)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 51 (46)
Hari Trivedi (I): 3
Undecided: 6 (9)

Kathleen Vinehout (D): 38 (44)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 50 (46)
Hari Trivedi (I): 5
Undecided: 7 (10)

These numbers show a drop for Democrats from PPP's last survey of the race, which of course makes you ask, why? What's changed? Our pollster, Tom Jensen, offers his thoughts:
The biggest change is probably that this was our first time using a likely voter screen, We found with almost all of the recall elections last summer that the electorate just wasn't as Democratic as 2008, even if people were at least more excited about the recalls than they were about the 2010 elections. Gov. Scott Walker gains a few points as a result of that.

The other thing is that independents have flipped from our last poll, from supporting Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett by 12 to going for Walker by three. We've seen independents go back and forth on Walker several times over the last year, though I'm not certain what causes that. Walker's been very aggressive about getting on the air and that may have helped firm up his standing, especially as Democrats fight amongst each other over their nominee.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Dems gain some ground back once they're on the same page after the primary, just as Mitt Romney has gained on Barack Obama here with Republicans on the same page after Rick Santorum's exit.

Indeed, Obama's 53-39 lead over Romney in February is now a much closer 50-44 in this poll. Screening this poll for likely voters (as opposed to just registered voters) has had one other notable effect: Walker's job approval has ticked up, from 47-52 to 51-48. But it's had an even bigger effect on Barrett's favorables, which went from 41-33 to 41-45, a fall of 12 points. Former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk saw a much smaller net drop of 5, going from 31-42 to 36-52. Barrett's been the target of some tough attacks both from certain unions (which are backing Kane) as well as Walker, who has aired ads going after both leading Democrats, but apparently has made Barrett his focus.

Not much else has changed since PPP was last in the field, though. Demographically, the two polls are quite similar: This newest survey is 32 percent Republican and 31 percent Democratic, while February's was 33 D, 31 R—not a major difference. We've also included Hari Trivedi this time, an apparently wealthy independent who ran a couple of ads touting his candidacy on Super Bowl Sunday. But while it appears he may pull more from Democrats than Scott Walker, even his presence can't account for Walker's higher vote share.

One thing I'd also point out is that because Democrats are focused on the primary right now (which is coming up on May 8), Walker hasn't really been targeted by negative ads yet. There won't be a lot of time (the general election is on June 5), but with Walker stuck at 50 and Democrats likely to rally around their nominee, there's a good opportunity both to drive his numbers down and to see our numbers to move back up.

On a related note, we also tested the Democratic primary (MoE: 3.4%):

Tom Barrett (D): 38 (45)
Kathleen Falk (D): 24 (18)
Doug La Follette (D): 9 (14)
Kathleen Vinehout (D): 6 (6)
Undecided: 22 (17)
As you can see, Barrett's lead has been cut substantially from February, again probably due to the linked changes in the voter screen and his favorability numbers. One thing I'd note is that quite a lot of Republicans and a ton of independents say they plan to vote in the Democratic primary, something permitted under Wisconsin law. Indeed, the primary sample contains 41 percent self-identified Democrats, 40 percent indies, and 19 percent Republicans. Among just Democrats, Barrett has a much wider 49-30 lead, and he also leads 37-23 among independents. (Secretary of State Doug La Follette leads among Republicans with 19 percent, either because he's been around forever or because they perceive him as the weakest candidate and are trying to stage a futile Operation Hilarity of their own.)

Finally, we included a test of the general election ballot in the lieutenant governor's race, where Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch is likely to face Mahlon Mitchell, president of the Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin:

Mahlon Mitchell (D): 40
Rebecca Kleefisch (R): 46
Undecided: 14
In Wisconsin, the governor and lieutenant governor are elected on the same ticket, but election officials ruled they had to be recalled separately. Mitchell is very much unknown, with favors of 12-25, while Kleefisch stands at a 41-40 in terms of job approvals.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:30 AM PDT.

Also republished by Badger State Progressive and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  dems haven't gone after him yet (17+ / 0-)

    Walker has been advertising nonstop for months and the democrats haven't gone after him yet.My guess on election day it will be a coin toss.
    This will be a major defeat for democrats if he survives. I think democrats will be more anxious to vote than the republicans when it comes down to it.

  •  Wisconsin, you are on notice (14+ / 0-)

    If this asshat is still your governor in July, you will be dead to me.

    Even though you really already should be for electing him in the first place, and also for kicking Russ Feingold out of the Senate.

    27, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:43:31 AM PDT

    •  You won't be missed (21+ / 0-)

      Thanks for the warning. I guess living in a swing state that has been targeted by the corporate hegemony in an attempt to break the back of organized labor means you're an asshole.

      Wisconsin has a long tradition of strong labor movements, and that is why they're spending so much money trying beat the people down. If they can do it here, they can do it anywhere.

      Not to worry, because if unaccountable private power manages to outspend the people, we'll all be dead to you. Good. If fighting back - even if we fail more than once - isn't good enough for you, we don't want to know you in the first place.

      Just be sure to take your juvenile, asinine attitude to the next state they do this to. And the next. Pretty soon, the rest of the country can be dead to you, and we can all go on with the struggle without your fucking whining.

      The problem with going with your gut as opposed to your head is that the former is so often full of shit. - Randy Chestnut

      by lotusmaglite on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:11:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sorry I disagree (4+ / 0-)

        Elections have consequences and if the great state of Wisconsin chooses to keep this jerk, the state made it's bed.

        Living in Texas I could feel your pain but knowing what they know of Walker and to keep him is the voters fault. If they choose to listen to slick ads and not pay attention to what is happening, that is their idiocy and not some outside interests fault.

        •  I lived in Texas for a while tommy2tone and it WAS (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          COBALT1928

          VERY PAINFUL, like you said.

          "Undermining Americans' belief in their own institutions of self-government remains a prime GOP electoral strategy." — Mike Lofgren

          by churchlady on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:40:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The state is great.. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            rcnewton

            It's the fucking idiots who vote who that make the state so insufferable.

            •  You call your fellow neighbors... (0+ / 0-)
              Fucking Idiots?
              No acknowledgment that maybe they are not quite as quick in wit as you?

              You must be perpetually pissed off; and that sort of regenerate energy is quite malefic for all who come in contact with it; or emanate it, which I am sure is not your intent, as well as the salient fact that the byproduct is a benefic for the asshats of manipulation; for sure-

              :♥)

              Evidence that contradicts the ruling belief system is held to extraordinary standards, while evidence that entrenches it is uncritically accepted. -Carl Sagan

              by RF on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:37:02 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Maybe he just means that in terms of voting. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                RF, Tiger in BlueDenver

                I wouldn't use that terminology, but I know when my aunt told me that high speed rail was a good idea, but not "this train", meaning the Obama stimulus 800 million dollar high speed rail link between Madison and Milwaukee, my mouth fell open and I just sat there. I truly didn't understand what she was talking about. I would never call my aunt names, but I do think she is becoming vulnerable as she ages to right wing lies.

                •  So I take it you don't think she is a (0+ / 0-)
                  Fucking Idiot(s)?
                  You believe something else is in play that is causing her irrational viewpoints...

                  Anyone who views or consumes American mass media is vulnerable to irrational viewpoints by definition-

                  Cut that cord and their prescriptions used to handle being in their own skin, and better action and activities will result-  This is one of the very few benefits of the recent financial collapse;  life choices are made that stop funding and indirectly investing in faux et al-  

                  Evidence that contradicts the ruling belief system is held to extraordinary standards, while evidence that entrenches it is uncritically accepted. -Carl Sagan

                  by RF on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:57:43 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  Most citizens pay NO to LITTLE attention to (5+ / 0-)

          politics.  Most don't read DK.  

          I've been walking precincts for an ethical, independent,  progressive, Democratic candidate (Norman Solomon) in what is a very progressive, educated, congressional district:   Mind you our vote by mail ballots arrive in a couple of weeks...so we are getting down to at least one wire...the primary itself will be June 5.  

          AND....I would say that 1 out of 25 people I speak with when I'm going door to door can't even name one candidate who is running for congress this time around...and we have 12 people running.  ( Lynn Woolsey, who held the seat for a looonngg time, is not running again, so we have a plethora of hopefuls but really only 2-3 with a good campaign and a chance to win)  

          It's a big eye opener as to how we got where we are so don't knock WI.   And to think that before I was retired with more time on my hands and before I found DK, I was one of these Democratic voting, civil rights advocate, well meaning, but ignorant citizens.

          "I think it is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers that might be wrong." Richard Feynman

          by leema on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:44:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The problem is not voting (3+ / 0-)

            it is the wrong people voting. I read where only 2% of the tea party realizes that their taxes went down during Obama's years in office.

            This is what happens when people watch Fox News and listen to Rush Limbaugh for their information.

            •  This points to a lack of information... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Tiger in BlueDenver

              which is vital for any democracy.   A major cause of that is the propaganda machine: Fox News and other coporate media.  

              "I think it is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers that might be wrong." Richard Feynman

              by leema on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 05:39:31 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  No (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              RF

              This is what happens when people read their local newspapers, or the New York Times, or the USA Today, or watch CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC...

              The horseshit lies and lazy reporting don't belong just to the right wing media outlets. This is part of the problem: people think they're getting the news, getting the information, but they aren't. How many times a day around here do we see how wrong the mainstream media gets it?

              They're badly informed, and that's by design. And expecting them to magically know when to ignore the "legitimate" news anchor and go digging online is just an exercise in futility. People still trust the news. Not FOX, not Rush, but the "actual" news, and the actual news is crap.

              I know this. You should, too. But how the hell are they supposed to know? They're bombarded 24/7 with the message that all the talk about right wing propaganda and corporate takeover of the media is crazy conspiracy talk.

              Do we dump on the people who were fooled by blue dogs and so-called "centrists" into thinking we'd elected a majority in the Senate? Those people are all around you right now. But the President's #1 enemy so far has been his own party, and a lot of people are feeling cheated. Is it their fault? Should they have known they were being lied to by the people they thought they could trust?

              This is a bad road to turn down.

              The problem with going with your gut as opposed to your head is that the former is so often full of shit. - Randy Chestnut

              by lotusmaglite on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 08:26:33 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Eight Word Phrase- (0+ / 0-)
                This is a bad road to turn down.
                Nice beam of LotusMagLite for sure-

                Evidence that contradicts the ruling belief system is held to extraordinary standards, while evidence that entrenches it is uncritically accepted. -Carl Sagan

                by RF on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:39:35 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  Ignorance- (3+ / 0-)

          The ignorance inherent in your comment regarding the power of media and money, regardless of truth in reality, is astounding...

          You feed the exact intent of the Koch Bros type(S) which is to pit folks emotionally against each other, because anything less results in their easy defeat, and more importantly provides no 1% food-

          I do not blame you directly for the executions in Texas; or the toxic waste you spew daily, as the wind and stream move east to west; nevermind your citizens allowed a world renowned New England frat boy c student coward to steal and hold your State's persona, which now is largely non-Grata---  Still; no blame of you or those in your state, because to do so would only feed the beast-

          Please take some valuable time to empty out your thoughts, gain some awareness of their source, and once clear, reconsider and remove the ignorance in your fixed position-

          Viva Wisconsin!

          Evidence that contradicts the ruling belief system is held to extraordinary standards, while evidence that entrenches it is uncritically accepted. -Carl Sagan

          by RF on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:32:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Gee, thanks. Per comment above, where's your (11+ / 0-)

      $500,000 SuperPAC contribution to help us fight the millions from Koch/ALEC/WMC/Rove SuperPACs who are lying for Walker 24/7?

      WI 2010 was the test case for post-Citizen's United campaign spending.  Outside money swamped us.

      So pitch in BIGTIME or...you're dead to us in WI, thanks.

      To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public. - Theodore Roosevelt 1918

      by JVolvo on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:12:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Seriously (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        COBALT1928, rcnewton

        It's not as though what Walker is doing is some huge secret that nobody knows about.

        Why does Super PAC money make a difference?  Are the people there asleep?

        27, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

        by TDDVandy on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:35:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Were the people (6+ / 0-)

          of America asleep when they elected GWB, twice?  It's a political civil war out there, bub.  The right wing has made huge advances since Regan, and it's getting harder and harder to fight their corporate bought government.  

          Nifty trick they pulled too---sunk the economy with 30 years of failed policy, and then blamed the president they handed their mess to when he couldn't get it all mopped up in 2 years.  That's what happened in 2012---a knee jerk from Americans who feel entitled not to have to suffer the consequences of their voting decisions for too long.  

          So yes, plenty of Americans are asleep, with roofs over their heads and food in their tummies, and they don't keep up, and they aren't informed and it's not just in Wisconsin.

          The difference in Wisconsin is that much of the state woke up and fought back.  

          •  Trust me (6+ / 0-)

            I grew up in Tennessee and now live in Texas.  I'm surrounded by idiots.

            The difference is, normally Republicans don't let their true agenda be known.  Walker has been waving his dick in the face of the people of Wisconsin for the last year and a half.

            27, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

            by TDDVandy on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:00:52 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Why did you have to put that image into my head? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              non acquiescer

              That is so disgusting.

              Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, 6/5/2012- the day the great error of Wisconsin history will be corrected!

              by WisJohn on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:04:09 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  sorry (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                COBALT1928, Inkpen, kman23

                I can't think of a more appropriate way to describe it?

                27, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

                by TDDVandy on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:09:50 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  This whole thing is a whole lot of work, I am not (4+ / 0-)

                  complaining, and I am not as involved as some people, but I average at least 12 hours a week volunteering since Nov. 15. That doesn't include time I spent last summer. Do you put in that many hours? If not, maybe you shouldn't be so critical of us, we are doing our best.

                  Walker is attacking Barrett on TV like crazy, Walker has so much money and keeps lying and his supporters want to believe him. They don't like Democrats or unions apparently.

                  This whole year has been one long slog and we are in the midst of it, gearing up for the actual election. The  right wing is playing tricks all the time. You can't even keep up with all this garbage if you live here.

                  Wish us luck, don't criticize.

            •  Republicans let their (5+ / 0-)

              agenda be known once they're elected.  This is what happened in Wisconsin.  Walker never campaigned on busting up unions or any of the other crap he's pulled.  His whole 2010 campaign was just like the GOP primaries, drowning in platitudes.  Very few details.

              Then he got elected---and by a small margin---got, a republican house and senate and went to town. As did Snyder in Michigan, Kasich in Ohio, Scott in Florida, etc.etc. The cabal of mid term GOP governors are all ALEC boys.  Their agendas were set for them long ago.  Nothing different about Wisconsin here.

              Wisconsin and Ohio have fought back, Michigan sits on its hands for the better part, as Snyder pulls out elected town officials and puts in his own "crisis managers." (Although finally, we're beginning to see some action from Michigan Democrats.)

            •  Except that every media outlet (0+ / 0-)

              ...in the state and the nation that isn't a leftist or Democratic Party blog has been reporting exactly the opposite.

              Where exactly are the people - who still trust CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, their local papers, 98% of the radio stations, ad infinitum, suppose to turn to for all this good information? Exactly where do we draw the line between stupidity and blaming the victim?

              Most people are acting on the information they get. It's the information that's shit, not the people.

              The problem with going with your gut as opposed to your head is that the former is so often full of shit. - Randy Chestnut

              by lotusmaglite on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 08:30:28 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  We're in a 'hyperinformation' bubble. They are not (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                lotusmaglite, rosarugosa

                Its a mistake to presume everyone else knows more details as well, sadly, they do not. They think what they get on MSM is enough, or they quit watching it altogether because of the lying.

                I did the same thing, for years. Not being familiar w/a computer and no trust in the news media can lead to confusion and ignorance.

                While canvassing or registering people to vote for the recalls I was hearing 'Walker is out already, what'd I sign that paper for'(recall petition)'I have to vote too?'.. or...'We vote for President this year?
                Gotta explain, get it out there.:-)

          •  Were the people of America ... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            COBALT1928, JVolvo, churchlady

            > Were the people of America asleep when they elected GWB, twice?

            Yes.

    •  Good Grief. You're in Texas (9+ / 0-)

      for fuck's sake. What right do you have to cast aspersion on another state?

      Better beans and bacon in peace than cakes and ale in fear... Aesop

      by mr crabby on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:24:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ah, of course. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rcnewton

        Play the Texas card.

        I expect better from Wisconsin.  On the other hand, until it is shown otherwise I expect incompetence from Texas politicians.

        27, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

        by TDDVandy on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:42:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm tired of hearing this from non-residents of Wi (16+ / 0-)

      These comments are offensive to all of us who have stood out in the cold, been called every epithet in the book to get recall sigs. We are phonebanking, canvassing and are still working to register voters It does us a great disservice.

       If you don't live here, you are not subjected to the constant barrage of advertising, and news from our worthless media. That campaign is spending untold millions spreading lie after lie about how 'its working' , not to mention almost nothing about the John Doe investigation gets publicized. If a lie gets repeated often enough they believe it is the truth.

      We don't have the deep pockets it takes to spend on advertising to correct his lies. We have to rely solely on word of mouth and boots on the ground etc..to combat this now.

      It was the same tactics the big money used in 2010 only now it is on steroids. Add voter suppression, godawful redistricting plus intimidation being used by the t-gaggers when they made a 'searchable database' of those who signed the recall petitions. There is a 'McCarthy styled witch hunt going on w/that. The Koch bros have said they have 'invested' in Walker and are prepared to 'invest' much more.

      I am pessimistic by nature and don't want to hold false hopes. It has occurred to me that we may lose, but right now we must fight like hell to see to it that we don't. We know how important this is to everyone, and $$$o do they.

      What we don't need is stuff like 'you are dead to me' etc..
      What state do you live in that hasn't been threatened by the rwnj $$ horrors ?

    •  Gee thanks, TDDVandy. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, Cream City

      You must be lucky enough to live in a state that's safely blue?  

      Lucky you.  Some of us have aging parents, children in school and businesses to run and can't just up and leave.  We have to fight to get our state back against an onslaught of corporate dollars that are essentially unlimited.  Hope it never happens to your state, it sounds like you couldn't handle it.

      "Undermining Americans' belief in their own institutions of self-government remains a prime GOP electoral strategy." — Mike Lofgren

      by churchlady on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:39:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  How is it even this close? (10+ / 0-)

    They've exposed Walker ever since he took office.

  •  asdf (12+ / 0-)

    As much as it pains me, Walker is not going to be recalled. The trends are all against it - and, as usual, the events that drove the recalls earlier have faded from the electorate's memory (that has a shelf life measured in days, not years).

    Of course, it would have been nice had the Democrats rallied around a single standard-bearer - but that would require foresight and intelligence - 2 commodities that Democrats seems to have abandoned over the past 3 years.

    Sadly, everything Communism said about itself was a lie. Even more sadly,, everything Communism said about Capitalism was the truth.

    by GayIthacan on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:43:56 AM PDT

    •  One thing that could spur some action, though (11+ / 0-)

      Is if the news on the John Doe probes continues to be bad for Walker.

      The real killer would be if some sort of indictment of Walker for something was to actually happen -- if it's serious enough, it could seriously depress turnout on the Republican side and maybe even spur some turncoat voting from some of the more moderate ones who value some level of honesty from their elected officials over partisanship.

      •  A reminder of what the John Doe case is about.. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, rosarugosa, debaseTheBase

        John Nichols @ The Nation - January 26, 2012 - 5:31 PM ET

        Just hours after he delivered a State of the State address that he hoped would set the tone for his campaign to avert a recall election threat, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker was hit with exactly the sort of news that embattled politicians fear most.

        Two former aides to Walker—one of whom was in the employ of his campaign until just days ago—have been charged with felonies and misdemeanors in the ongoing “John Doe” investigation of wrongdoing by aides, political allies and campaign donors with links to the embattled governor.

        These charges follow closely on the filing of felony charges against Tim Russell, a former Walker deputy chief of staff and one of the governor’s closest aides over the past decade.

        This goes back a couple of months but It's shows John  Nichols reporting from early on.
  •  I guess the good news is that (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peptabysmal, wishingwell

    even in 2010, Dem had a slight edge in party id(37-36) so even with an electorate much more Republican than even 2010, Dems arent trailing too badly in the general, and Obama actually leads by 6%.

    I kind of worry about the effects of the special election on the Nov general. I hope, whatever the outcome ,it doesnt hurt Dem turnout.

  •  Once again, (13+ / 0-)

    proof how stupid Americans are.  

    "bin Laden's dead, and GM is alive" ~ Biden

    by dkmich on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:49:01 AM PDT

  •  Is it a tradition among regular WI voters that (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    EmmaPie

    at least half of them must perpetually be stupid and the "not stupid" or "less stupid" only wins when the young show up in higher numbers?

    •  Awesome. MORE WI bashing. Beautiful. Thanks (11+ / 0-)

      for your support.  No, really, it's soooo helpful.  Based on your phrasing I take it you don't live here.  Correct?  Hmmm...

      To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public. - Theodore Roosevelt 1918

      by JVolvo on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:16:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Based on WI election results for the past (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        joe wobblie

        decade --  plus the fact that they gave the country Joe McCarthy -- along with the continued 50% approval rate for Walker after over a year of exposing his rancid and regressive public policies.  Hey, I did acknowledge that unlike totally regressive states, WI doesn't always go with the rancid, but when they do, it's particularly toxic.

        •  Wisconsin went for Obama/Kerry/Gore , many (5+ / 0-)

          states did not.  So it is not like WI is a red state like far too many others.

          Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

          by wishingwell on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:46:43 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  In evaluating an electorate would never use (0+ / 0-)

            Rove's election strategy standard of 50% plus one.  

            Obama won in IN and nobody has stopped referring to IN as a "red" state.  Obama garnered 10.4% more of the IN votes than Kerry did.  In WI, Obama improved over Kerry by only 6.5% .  In 2000 and 2004 WI exhibited exactly what it's currently showing wrt Walker -- a 50/50% split.  If it had shifted decisively since 2000 or 2004 to 52/48 in favor of Democrats, the Walker/Koch efforts to disenfranchise voters wouldn't be successful and that's why this state has received so much attention from the rightwing moneybags.

        •  LOL, (14+ / 0-)

          and MN gave this country Michelle Bachmann.  And Pennsylvania gave this country Santorum.  Mass gave us Mr. Etch a sketch.  There's hardly a state we can't thank for some right wing nut these days.

          I find this blaming states so very unhelpful, particularly when Wisconsin has done wonders in bringing national attention to the tricks of the GOP governors, union busting and a host of other issues, in the last year.

          No, Wisconsin doesn't always go with the rancid, in fact it rarely does.  So let's rephrase here.  When Wisconsin decides to fight back, they do a hell of a job of it.

          •  A district in MN elected Bachmann -- not the (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            rcnewton

            state.  CA has several Reps that are as odious as Bachmann but the state hasn't been a winner at the federal level for any Republican since 1990.  

            Santorum dropped out of the GOP primary because he was going to lose in PA among Republicans; so, they seem to have learned something.

            What part of Walker currently polling at 50% don't you get?  

            •  Marie, (4+ / 0-)

              so scratching my head that someone supposedly on our side would take time out to double down on her premise that the problem is that odious state of Wisconsin.

              It is quite clear to me, that you have no knowledge or empathy for the fight Wisconsinites have waged.  And how VERY MUCH they have achieved, whether they win the recall or not.

              You know, I think it's time to agree to disagree.  I have NO WISH to waste another minute of my life arguing with someone who asks me---an ardent and involved activist in the Wisconsin recall, if I "get it."

              I get it, Marie.  In a way you never will.

              •  First -- not once did I use the word "odious." (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                rcnewton

                Second, I never said "that the problem is that odious state of Wisconsin."

                What I haven't seen from you or any of the others that responded to my first comment is an explanation for why the WI electoral baseline has been splitting 50/50 for over a decade.  Instead all of you have attacked me for not being knowledgeable or empathetic.  For not appreciating all the hard work of WI activists.  What were the recall election results?  How is Walker doing on his recall so far?

                Am sure you and other activists in WI are working hard or you wouldn't win any battles at all.  But doesn't seem as if you're making any permanent inroads into the "stupid" vote, and that makes each election that much more exhausting and fragile as money can buy "the stupid."  Had CA continued to ignore its progressive past and remained split 50/50%, Meg Whitman could have bought the governorship.  

                •  We won 2 very red districts last summer. We (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  JVolvo

                  also never lost a Dem seat in the recalls. I am not sure that telling us to make permanent inroads into the stupid vote is going to do any good. What kind of advice is that?

                  I am sure you are far away and therefore this seems theoretical to you, maybe even abstract.  To us, it is an everyday decision to go in to volunteer or not.

                  I think Whitman lost because she screwed up the Latino vote.

                •  Ummmm. Just, no. (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  rosarugosa, peptabysmal, JVolvo

                  You started out this part of the thread, noting that Wisconsin was responsible for McCarthy, and moving on to express your dissatisfaction that we activists seemed not able to move the needle beyond 50/50, and that's exactly where you are with this last post.

                  So what if Wisconsin has been 50-50 for over a decade?  So what if Wisconsin has been purple?  What does that have to do with the price of tea in China?  

                  California also made the Arnold its governor, and many of us might spit on you for that.  But we won't because we know better.

                  Fact is, you do indeed seem to not have much empathy for what it's taken to get as far as Wisconsin has in its recalls. Wisconsin has set records in this battle, has recalled and defeated two GOP senators---which with a resignation, has brought Democrats to a tie in power in the formerly GOP controlled senate.  We have also, of course, managed to recall the governor, which if you know anything about political history, has rarely been done. We'll see how that turns out.

                  Marie, can't begin to tell you how unconcerned I am with your comparisons to what California did or didn't do. Can't tell you how unconcerned I am that you are arrogant enough to hold the state of Wisconsin responsible for moving the needle on "the stupid."  Hard enough just to do what's been done, let alone solve a nation wide problem.

                  You go your way, Marie, we'll go ours.  You're not helpful.

        •  A few things (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rosarugosa, JVolvo

          Your state voted Schwarzenegger for governor twice.  You also elected, then re-elected, Pete Wilson.  He was a senator from CA, too.  You also gave us Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon, so thanks for that.

          I also feel compelled to mention that in general, in California, once one gets away from the bay area, LA, and San Diego, the state gets pretty deeply red.

          If we're going to call specific states stupid for how they vote, frankly, California isn't immune to it.

          Also, Wisconsin also gave us the progressive movement, and Russ Feingold.  Every state has some politicians they're ashamed of.  Hell, here in Michigan we have Snyder, who is way more popular than he should be.  But I would argue that, politically, Wisconsin has far more redeeming qualities than we do.

          •  Michigan, at least the Detroit area is pretty (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JVolvo

            progressive about some things compared to other suburban areas. Oakland county and Wayne county are "bluer" than Waukesha and Milwaukee county in a lot of ways. Maybe less self segregating?

            •  Michigan (3+ / 0-)

              has many of the same problems as most states: outside of the big cities, and the college towns, it's mostly red.  You're right about Detroit and Wayne County.  Oakland's pretty red though, at least at the presidential level.  Really, outside of Detroit, the Ann Arbor/Ypsilanti area, and maybe Kalamazoo, it's all Republicans.

              Well, the UP's nominally blue, but it's swingy, and more blue dog than anything else.

              My point though is that California has the same issue, so it's kind of stupid to argue that it's radically different from states like WI.  The difference is, CA has more cities with large populations than Wisconsin does, so there are more Democratic voters.

    •  Sure is in Texas (0+ / 0-)

      and a lot of other states..Why should Wisconsin be different?

      •  When was the last time the "not stupid" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        exterris, joe wobblie

        won in Texas and other permanent "red" states?

        Why should WI be different?  Because it has a hundred year tradition of electing enough progressives to know that they have been good for them and the regressives that they have elected have been bad (sometimes really bad).  

        •  Please (0+ / 0-)

          Texas has no tradition? Electing a fucking nut is not exclusive to states considered progressive anymore. How else do you explain Walker?

          •  Lower voter turn-out, 52.3% to 46.5% for (0+ / 0-)

            Walker in 2010, and Walker that lied his way through that election explains how he won.  What remains inexplicable to me is why after he's made his rancid policies public and there's been massive public push-back that he's still polling at 50%.  As none of the responses bothered to explain that and preferred to criticize observations that I hadn't made, my original observation -- a 50/50 baseline WI electorate -- must have some validity.

            Prefer to consider the number of freaking nuts and electorate has in office at one time a better measure than if they have a lone nut or two.

            •  I think your comments got mixed in with about (0+ / 0-)

              3 others here who were basically calling our state "stupid". You have to understand that often people support us here, but almost just as often we read advice (well intentioned) or criticism. Lately there has been a lot of criticism, I have noticed, of the state, because of all the nonsense in our government.

              Now, two tell the truth, I am a surprised at this result. Maybe we will not be able to win the recall and maybe the months of tv ads are "working". I am surprised to hear that, but I also didn't think Walker would give up without a fight.

              I am surprised because in general Walker sounds scared. Is it all a trick, maybe. But I have seen the recall petitions and it looks to me like a  lot of people signed those who were not Democrats. Will they vote? Will regular Democrats vote or will they decide they don't like recalls? Time will tell.

      •  Well at least WI went for Obama/Kerry/Gore (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, Cream City, COBALT1928

        and Texas did not.

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:47:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Time to get to work. All hands on deck. (11+ / 0-)

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:52:10 AM PDT

  •  This is very sucky news nt (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, StellaRay, rosarugosa

    "If you don't sin, then Jesus died for nothing!" (on a sign at a Mardi Gras parade in New Orleans)

    by ranger995 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:54:39 AM PDT

  •  OMG (9+ / 0-)

    After all that's been done to get rid of this jerk, if he wins I will lose my faith in the majority of our species to act in its own best interest.

    Eliminate tax breaks that stimulate the offshoring of jobs.

    by RJDixon74135 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:56:55 AM PDT

  •  Dear God. This cannot be the state of (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, Matt Z, COBALT1928, kman23

    Fighting Bob LaFollette, William Proxmire and Russ Feingold. Can it?

    The Republican motto: "There's been a lot of progress in this country over the last 75 years, and we've been against all of it."

    by Hillbilly Dem on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:57:17 AM PDT

    •  Don't forget (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z, nimh, rcnewton

      We're also the state of Joe McCarthy

    •  People on the right breed faster. (0+ / 0-)

      This is the problem, in a nutshell.  Nothing has changed at all among the traditionally liberal in Wisconsin.  What has changed is that the conservative families are adding more to the population faster, pushing the percentages the other way.

      •  That doesn't fit with the St. Norbert's poll about (0+ / 0-)

        the 20-30 year olds, children of Republicans signing the recall petitions. Do you think they have changed their minds?

        •  Is the poll saying > 50% of republican children (0+ / 0-)

          If not, then it doesn't contradict what I said.   So long as a majority of children of Republicans grow up to be Republican adults themselves, the effect I described happens given enough time, even if that majority is a thin 51%.

          •  I don't remember exaclty, I thought it was more (0+ / 0-)

            like 23% or something like that.

          •  That's not true (0+ / 0-)

            If liberals are better at getting the next generation to match their ideology than conservatives are, they'll outnumber them in the next generation.

            Imagine a group of people in Generation 1. 50 are conservative, 50 are liberal. The conservatives contribute 150 children to the next generation, the liberals contribute 50.

            Further assume that 55% of the children of conservatives turn out to be conservative. That means Generation 2 will have 82 conservatives born of conservative parents and 68 liberals. Assume liberals are good, but not perfect, at getting their kids to turn out liberal, and only lose 10% to the dark side. That means 45 children of liberal parents are liberal, and 5 are conservative.

            That brings the total of liberals in Generation 2 to 113 and the conservatives to 87. Liberals went from being even in Generation 1 to a twelve point advantage in Generation 2, despite being outbred 3 to 1.

            •  Your post contains the unsupported (0+ / 0-)

              assertion that the rate of liberal parents spawning conservative offspring is far less than the rate of conservative parents spawning liberal offspring.  That's data that you just made up.

              I understand math very well and understand that if the rate of conservative loss between generations is many times higher than the rate of liberal loss between generations that it can more than compensate for a larger conservative birth rate.  But  that assertion is hard for me to believe without being backed up by facts.

              In other words, your math is spot on.  But your givens you started from I find rather dodgy.

              •  I was making a mathematical argument (0+ / 0-)

                To rebut your mathematical claim. Not making a sociological argument.

                You asserted that the important fact was that conservatives produce many more offspring than liberals.My point is that the rate at which conservatives produce offspring is meaningless unless you take into account the rates of conversion from liberal to conservative and vice versa.

                •  You added a new given (0+ / 0-)

                  that was far out of line with a reasonable assumption.  You're right that I never mentioned it.  For the same reason I didn't mention "ooh but what if conservatives tend to die at 5 times the rate liberals do?"  Because it's not a reasonable assumption to make out of thin air.

                  If you think it's acceptable to make up givens out of thin air, and I had to respond to all of them ahead of time that someone might make up, then no analysis would ever be possible, period.

                  •  Your claim (0+ / 0-)

                    Your argument was that if conservatives outbred liberals, and that if a majority of conservatives' children were conservative themselves, then subsequent generations will be majority conservative.

                    My argument was that your conclusion did not follow from your premises. This argument involved constructing a hypothetical scenario in which your premises were true, but your conclusion false.

                    •  Which required making up pretty ludicrous (0+ / 0-)

                      givens.  The only reason I didn't mention every given is that I don't have infinite amount of time.  It's pretty silly to expect me to have to explicitly mention "all else being within reasonable bounds" as if that was somehow not understood.  You know what else would have been a problem?  If millions of snakes poisoned conservatives making them die young.  But that's not going to happen.  I could just as easily rip into your example by making up unreasonable givens for situations you never mentioned explicitly, making what you said false.

  •  Changing the methodology is most of it (11+ / 0-)

    But the attacks on Barrett are just Dems being idiots.

    Falk and Lafollette should drop out now, otherwise the whole thing is a pointless exercise in  how Democrats would rather commit suicide than actually accomplish anything.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:58:24 AM PDT

  •  Mahlon Mitchell (7+ / 0-)

    I'm disappointed to see he is polling down to that psycho Kleefisch.  However, he doesn't have the name recognition yet.  He is a brilliant speaker that with some air time, should motivate a lot of people.  Hopefully his presence will help the GOTV in the Milwaukee area which underperformed for Democrats in 2010.

  •  i live in wisconsin (4+ / 0-)

    I'm unsure who to vote for in this upcoming primary.

    I'm leaning Falk, just cause I like to see females elected for dems.

    Will gladly vote for whoever wins the primary though.

    Anybody know much about these primary candidates?

    •  You could also (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, exterris, wishingwell, rosarugosa

      ...consider Vinehout. She's pretty solid. But I agree; I'll vote for a poodle rather than Walker - at least a poodle wouldn't know what it was being bribed to do.

      The problem with going with your gut as opposed to your head is that the former is so often full of shit. - Randy Chestnut

      by lotusmaglite on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:14:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What issues are important to you? (7+ / 0-)

      Falk is somewhat stronger on collective bargaining rights and the environment. Vinehout is significantly weaker on reproductive rights. Barrett is the only candidate with both executive and legislative experience.

      •  But Falk was the County Executive. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        emptythreatsfarm, askew

        All these people are great candidates. I see Falk as highly organized and efficient. Barrett is fair and is very personable, he comes across as likeable and very moderate.  They have both been saying they want to bring Wisconsin together.
        Kathleen Vinehout is also a good candidate. I would say she and Falk are a little better on education than Barrett, but I haven't really heard him talk about that.

        •  IMHO (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew

          The only reason not to vote for Falk is electability: she's better on the issues and has more experience and skill as an executive. I'm not terribly moved by the electability argument either, as Barrett and Falk are close enough together that it's highly unlikely that it makes a difference who the nominee is.

        •  Falk can't talk about that much, though (0+ / 0-)

          because she quit halfway through her last term and talked like she was leaving politics.  She still has not addressed that, and Barrett is not touching it (because he said that he wants a clean campaign).

          Walker will go after her on it, though, if she takes the primary -- and we have no idea what she will say to justify pulling a Palin.

          "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

          by Cream City on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:33:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Barrett's doing the same thing (0+ / 0-)

            He just ran for Mayor only to turn around and immediately run for Governor.

            •  That's different for a reason (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              peptabysmal

              that I must not have made clear.

              Falk quit her office, and with an announcement that sounded like she was quitting politics all together.

              That is different, far different, from a pol in office running for another pol office, which happens all of the time -- and in this case, we who have him as mayor understand that this situation could not be anticipated, with the recall not certified until only days before the mayoral election.

              As he consistently has polled as the best bet to beat Walker, we in Milwaukee are willing to cope with finding a new mayor, for the good of the rest of Wisconsin.

              "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

              by Cream City on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:14:43 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Two points (0+ / 0-)

                Barrett knew that a recall was extremely likely even before he decided to run for reelection. It was a highly anticipatable event. He ran for reelection knowing that there was a strong likelihood that he would serve only a few months of his term. He spend four months essentially nailing down a back up plan.

                Second, Barrett's claims that he and he alone can beat Walker are not borne out by polling. Even yesterday's PPP poll shows that there's only a 2.3% chance that he would beat Walker where no one else would, and the same poll showed a 1.1% chance that Falk would beat Walker when Barrett wouldn't.

  •  Kane? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    non acquiescer
    Barrett's been the target of some tough attacks both from certain unions (which are backing Kane)
    Kane?  Who's Kane?

    I worked for the Nader presidential campaign in 2000. I'm so sorry!

    by NYLefty on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:01:59 AM PDT

  •  Just wondering if (0+ / 0-)

    The dems should turn out in force to  support Art Kohl Riggs (R- Lincoln/ Fighting Bob) in the primary. No matter which  Dem wins the primary, we have someone on  the side of sanity. But if we can oust Walker beforehand.......

    I want to hear it in the halls of Congress and on the Senate floor. Mic-check motherfuckers! Mic-check! One Pissed Off Liberal

    by vacilando on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:02:29 AM PDT

  •  I don't get how you can compare... (7+ / 0-)

    last months results to this months when you switched to a likely voter screen this time around.  

    The polling isn't comparable and shouldn't be compared.

  •  Good to see likely voters doesn't change it much (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    Presidential numbers support the idea that the electorate in general is somewhere between 2004 and 2008. Tammy Baldwin down just 2 points to Tommy Thompson with likely voters also encouraging.

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:07:34 AM PDT

    •  It changes it drastically (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Cream City, COBALT1928

      -2, +1 in a race that was one point is a drastic change.

      More importantly, it is pure rabbit-out-of-a-hat speculation on PPPs part.  

      This poll is close to worthless.  There is no way to know what turnout on a recall/special will be as it has never been done before.  The argument that turnout was not at 2008 levels for the Senate recalls is simply absurd.  The statewide Gov race is in no way comparable to the Senate recalls/specials.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:28:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They've done a fine job this year on caucuses (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        emptythreatsfarm, nimh

        and primaries on what are generally hard to poll races. I feel rather confident they know what they're doing.

        20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

        by aggou on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:58:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Caucuses, no (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Cream City

          But your main point actually agrees with mine:
          This is the first time they have adjusted their sample in this way.

          If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:01:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's common practice to switch to likely (0+ / 0-)

            Voter screen. I don't see how this is the first time they done it.

            20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

            by aggou on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:53:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  What's a "likely voter screen" for a hyperpartisan (0+ / 0-)

              recall, in summer, that has never had a recall?

              By definition, this is the first time they've done it.

              And in doing so they came up with a sample lower in partisans of both types, and higher in non-partisans.  In other words, PPP is saying the most "energized" voters for the Wisconsin recall are independants.  Not likely.

              To repeat the obvious, likely voters in June is not the exact same universe as likely voters in November.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 01:45:35 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Last Summer (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone

                They were spot on with the Summer Elections using this screen.

                •  Which again is the point (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Cream City

                  A statewide race featuring the Gov is not the same as several dispersed state senate races that weren't even all the same day.

                  There is zero chance the same screen is appropriate this summer, except by coincidence.  The current circumstances are different than last year's circumstances.

                  Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                  by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 04:04:59 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  6 races (0+ / 0-)

                    6 races in geographically disparate senate districts were on the same day and PPP was spot on with every single race.

                  •  If anything last year was harder. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    rosarugosa
                  •  tommy you're not being rational here (0+ / 0-)

                    There is nothing unusual about this special election that argues for some kind of "different" or "unique" likely voter screen, or no likely voter screen at all.  

                    Your arguments are not remotely plausible.

                    This poll is fine.  It might be wrong, the difference from last time might be statistical noise, and yes the screen could be off and skewed the turnout model.  But there's no reason to think there's some "better" way to do it that is clearly going to produce "more accurate" results.

                    All the Wisconsin polls, not just PPP's, have been strangely volatile this year, I think reflecting an unsure electorate.  We've seen Walker on the ropes in a couple rounds of polls, and Walker modestly leading in others.

                    But there's no reason to dismiss PPP's methodology here.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:18:13 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  So then make a case (0+ / 0-)

                      Why is the turnout 31D/32R?

                      No armwaving now, just state why they chose a likely voter model with a 31D/32R turnout model.

                      Further state why likely voters in the June recall are lower in both Dems and Reps than either 2008 or 2010.

                      Cut to the chase, you can't.  There is no logical argument that can be made that says both Dems and Reps are much less likely to vote in June, and indies are way, way more likely to vote.

                      Screening for likely voters is good, but the only likely voter screen that makes sense for a race like this is self-selection.  Eliminate voters who say they won't vote.  Don't conjure up an absurd distribution that has no chance of occuring.

                      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                      by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:29:08 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  It's just noise, and we have history here... (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        rosarugosa

                        ...for just these types of "problems" in PPP polling, almost always proving irrelevant to the accuracy of the toplines.

                        I played this game myself the last cycle, and got burned.  I kept questioning turnout models and such, based on party or race or ideology, and it turned out most of the time that PPP still came out consistent with the totality of polling far from an election, and proved accurate up close.  That doesn't mean there weren't any misses, NV-Sen was a big one, but they were actually a bit better than other polls even there, regardless of the turnout models.  I distinctly CO-Sen as one where the Hispanic vote share and party ID jumped around a lot across polls, but the topline always showed a dead heat, almost always 3 points or less either way.

                        Another thing is that "adjusting" the turnout model based on party ID or other demographic categories doesn't change the topline much, often hardly at all.  That's something a lot of people don't realize, but it's always true when you actually do the math.

                        Again, yes this poll could be wrong, as even the best public polls are wrong at least 5% of the time.  But trying to pick apart its internals to prove the point is folly, and I learned that myself through making the same mistakes I see you making here.

                        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 08:19:17 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

              •  I disagree. (0+ / 0-)

                I would say turnout is likely to be higher than 2008.

                I agree with Cript who spoke below.

                20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

                by aggou on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 02:23:25 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  You think turnout in June will be more than 2008? (0+ / 0-)

                  No chance, but whatever.

                  The point again though is this is an unprecedented event.  There is no logical way to screen this, aside from simple statements from the respondents saying they won't vote.

                  Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                  by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 04:07:39 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Do not shrug me off (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    rosarugosa

                    like I have no idea what I'm talking about.

                    Are you going to sit there and tell me that both the democrats and republicans are not fired up about this election? and that they won't vote early, or by absentee ballot if need be to either vote to get rid of, or keep Walker?

                    PPP's latest poll shows he's got around 97% approval by republicans, and you're telling me they won't turn out?

                    He's probably got the same amount of democrats who absolutely cannot wait for him to be gone. You don't think they'll turn out?

                    Then you have the Indies who are in the middle, split between the two, who've had to live through this for a year. You don't think they'll turn out to have their voices heard to?

                    It should surprise no one in the slightest if this turnout is as big, if not bigger than '08.

                    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

                    by aggou on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 04:28:53 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  According to this poll Dems and Reps are (0+ / 0-)

                      not fired up.  Both their percentages are way down from the 2008 turnout levels.

                      I'm not telling you they won't turn out.  The PPP poll/screen you are defending says they won't turn out.

                      Tell you what, I'll send $100 to Romney if June turnout is higher than 2008 general turnout, if you send $1 to Obama if it is lower.

                      Deal?

                      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                      by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:02:20 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Maybe that is the problem with the poll, comparing (0+ / 0-)

                        a senate election to a gubernatorial election.

                        You know, we just had the GOP primary here and we heard again and again how the Republicans were very concerned about the recall election and not the primary.

                        Now, 2 weeks later, we're supposed to have election fatigue or something.

  •  were the presidential numbers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    polled using likely voters as well?

  •  Seriously? (11+ / 0-)

    Who the hell would support Obama and vote for Walker?

    I just can't wrap my mind around this.

    I had hoped that the switch of union voters who threw their lot in with Walker last time would be enough to see him booted out.

    If PPP's numbers are correct (and they've been pretty good in Wisconsin recently) it appears this is not the case.

    •  non voters love walker (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, COBALT1928

      That stuck out, usually non voters are more democratic why such big Walker supporters? Up to democrats to get people out to vote but this would be a massive defeat for democracy if walker wins.

    •  Maybe people who don't like recalls on principle? (3+ / 0-)

      I admit to being personally torn on the subject.  If I were in Wisconsin I'd like the chance to oust Walker early, and his supportive state legislators besides, but I also don't particularly like the idea of officeholders being subject to recalls every time they take a controversial or unpopular vote or piss off some particular group.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:24:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I understand what you are saying. (5+ / 0-)

        I don't much like recalls on principle either.

        But Walker's decision to take away 50 years of collective bargaining rights from public employees away in a state that pioneered them is more than just an unpopular or controversial move.

        Unpopular and controversial measures are part of politics, but they usually don't result in hundreds of thousands of people marching in the streets for weeks.

        •  I agree Walker should be dumped (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          emptythreatsfarm

          and if I lived in WI I'd also vote against legislators who supported his antilabor measures, provided I was in such a legislator's district.  Those measures were indeed gratuitous and unnecessary.

          But it seems to me that recalls can sometimes be too tempting a target to overuse, for instance if the Tea Party morons suddenly start organizing recall petitions every time a Democrat or moderate Republican doesn't vote their way.  Even if such efforts ultimately don't force them from office they can be expensive and disruptive.

          36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:37:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  recalls may be tempting, but they do not (6+ / 0-)

            get overused.  And the reason is that they're quite difficult to pull off.  The right wingers have been trying this for years in WI - tried to recall Feingold, tried to recall Kohl, tried to recall Doyle, and who knows who else.  They never got close to enough signatures.  Because recall only works when the state as a whole is so outraged they think it's justified.  

            We need recalls as a protection against just the situation we have; when a politician lies his way into office and then starts to destroy the state.  We really can't get through another 3 years of Walker.  

            Walker, your pink slip is coming, unless the orange jumpsuit gets you first.

            by non acquiescer on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 01:27:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  My Political Science prof is the same way. (4+ / 0-)

        He is opposed to recall elections. He did not sign the petition to recall Walker. He will, however, be voting against him come June.

        To me, recalls are like a divorce in a marriage. People decide they don't want to be married to a person anymore, and go through the legal process of a divorce. In WI's case, the people decided that they don't want Walker to be the Governor anymore, and we are going through the legal procedure to remove him from office.

        Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, 6/5/2012- the day the great error of Wisconsin history will be corrected!

        by WisJohn on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:29:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It is not just one thing. It is the whole year. (0+ / 0-)

        I don't think out of staters understand that. But it is true. It is not just collective bargaining. Different issues make people want Walker out. His style of governing is what makes people mad.

        •  I agree. Collective bargaining is NOT (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          peptabysmal, JBraden, Bombay

          going to win this, with so few Wisconsinites in unions.  It will lose this recall, if we can't get the unions to stop pushing only that issue, when there are so many more.

          We need to be able to get past that to talk to the majority of Wisconsinites to remind them about the lack of hearings on bills, the violation of the open meeting law, the cuts in funding to the schools, the WORST record in the country on jobs, the rejection of hundreds of millions of federal funds that could have created jobs, and more and more and more.  Out-of-staters really do not realize, with the unions' skewing of the story (and the romanticizing of it on this site) that for month after month, every day brought another blow to the Wisconsin way that we live here.

          "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

          by Cream City on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:42:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  "Every time"? Silly argument (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rosarugosa

        if you count up the times that the recall of a governor has occurred, or even of state legislators.

        Wisconsinites are very reluctant to rock the boat and will not do this again -- unless another Walker drops another such "bomb" on the boat.  Doubtful, unless all of the forces such as ALEC and the NRA and more come together again to target Wisconsin.  

        Nope, they're moving on to other states now.  Beware.

        "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

        by Cream City on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:38:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think the people from out of state get how (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          peptabysmal

          horrible this has been. They think we are just experiencing a recall fad. They don't understand why all those retirees and moms are volunteering for all these hours during the day. They don't understand why working people are volunteering to canvass on weekends, attending rallies, etc., etc. Not to mention all the data entry that was done almost completely by volunteers.

    •  My dad. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      emptythreatsfarm

      He voted for Obama and for Scott Walker. He also voted for Herb Kohl, but he doesn't like Russ Feingold.

      My dad is a conservative who is willing to vote for Democrats, sometimes, if they come across as being centrists.

    •  emptythreatsfarm I agree, I don't know anyone (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      emptythreatsfarm

      who likes Obama and likes Walker as well.  But I guess I don't know that many people.

  •  How does likely voter screen work? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, rosarugosa

    Are they asked how likely they are to vote if Barrett is candidate and then asked the same about Falk?  Could it be a case where Falk supporters say they're unlikely to vote Barrett and Barrett Supporters say they're not as likely to vote if Falk is Dem nominee?

    Walker is acting way more desperate than a guy who is polling up 5-7 points two months out from an election with a HUGE money advantage.  

  •  pull-eez here we go again (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peptabysmal, Cream City

    with PPP not calling cell phones. and with the voter id law thrown out. These numbers do not include cells phones used by blacks and young people so I don't get excited over these "bad" results.

    Obama's defining political trait is the belief that conciliatory rhetoric is a ruthless strategy

    by AAMOM on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:20:24 AM PDT

  •  What happens if Walker wins? (0+ / 0-)

    He'd probably be favored in 2014, unless John Doe gets him first.

    Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, 6/5/2012- the day the great error of Wisconsin history will be corrected!

    by WisJohn on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:29:18 AM PDT

  •  La Follette (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    just has a reputation as a moderate.

    Why does Vinehout poll so much worse in PPP's polling? I haven't seen another survey with her under 10% in the primary.

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:33:04 AM PDT

    •  Vinehout (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rosarugosa

      Maybe the poll samples more urban people than the statewide average.

      I am going to be excited to see the county map of this Democratic primary. Rural areas will go Vinehout. Milwaukee area will go Barrett, Dane will go for Falk.

      Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, 6/5/2012- the day the great error of Wisconsin history will be corrected!

      by WisJohn on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:38:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  She's not as good (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      peptabysmal

      as others on women's reproductive rights.

      And those have become a rather significant issue again, as you may have noticed!  And long have been so in Wisconsin, a state targeted for attacks on clinics owing to all of the Catholics here (including in office).  

      Also, she has had no presence in Milwaukee.  That dooms a statewide candidate.  (Not that Falk has been seen much in the city, either, yet again, as in her previous races.)

      "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

      by Cream City on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:35:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If The Dems (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, COBALT1928

    Screw this one up, then we are all domed. We always snatch defeat away from victory, but a victory here sets the tone for races throughout the country, and if the recall does not get rid of Walker, then taking back the house and a strong majority in the Senate is history. GOTV for all the people who signed the petition which was over 1 million and we can pretty much get rid of him. PAC's should funnel whatever funds are necessary to accomplish tis.

  •  partisan numbers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    COBALT1928

    not questioning the poll, but it's weird that the partisan numbers have changed so much from 2008.  In that year it was 39D/33R; now it's 31D/32R -- either just a lot less Dems. than before, or Dems. are not energized -- any thoughts ?

    (even w/ the apparent huge Dem. drop-off, still good to see Obama ahead)...

    •  No, it's PPP asserting a "likely voters" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      savvyspy, COBALT1928

      will be very different in June than in 2008.

      They may be right or they may be wrong.  WI has never had such an election before.  As always, turnout is what matters.  If Dems turnout like in 2008, they win.  If Dems turnout in June like PPP's sample is, they lose.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:47:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2008 was an aberration, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Midwesterners

      as you can (go back and) see many of us said at the time.

      Wisconsin has reverted to what it was before:  the closest state in the country, the most purple state.   A few islands of blue, the few larger cities, surrounded by rural red.

      "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

      by Cream City on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:37:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That has never been true of WI (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        emptythreatsfarm, Inkpen

        Popular Democrats win WI easily.  Mediocre Democrats are tossup against mediocre Republicans.

        Only Tommy has been an extremely popular Rep since the Pat Lucey era of modern WI politics.

        If Hern Kohl were running for reelection, there would be nothing purple about it.
        Likewise, Obama will once again win easily by double digits.

        2008 was not an aberation.  It was 100% consistent with the state's electoral history for the past 40 years.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:43:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Huh? Have you check, y'know, facts (0+ / 0-)

          about the election returns?  About state history?

          You really need to do so.

          "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

          by Cream City on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:50:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Uh, yeah (0+ / 0-)

            You don't seem to have any idea about what you are talking about.

            Start with:

            Proxmire, William
            then move on to
            Kohl, Herb

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:55:33 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  1 seat? That's all ya got? (0+ / 0-)

              Now, let's look at the other Senate seat.  Who holds it now?  Who held it before Feingold?

              And then there's the House.  How many times in your lifetime have the Repubs held the majority of House seats in the state?

              And then there's the governorship.  How many years in your life have the Repubs been the govenors?

              And then there's the legislature . . . even without having to look back, you must know that both houses continue to be majority Republican.  And if you do look back, you'll see how rarely the Dems have had at least one house, plus the governorship, to have any impact.  (And even then, if it was a governor like Doyle, we might as well have had a Republican for what he did to public employees alone.)

              "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

              by Cream City on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 03:14:58 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Senate is evenly split (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                rosarugosa

                Since the resignation of Galloway, 16-16.

                Fake candidates nominated by the GOP for the recalls: 6 out of 7. Fake signatures on the recall petitions: 4 out of 1,860,283.

                by GeoffT on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 04:06:59 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Ah, I forget the forgettable (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  peptabysmal

                  Ms. Galloway, since it hasn't made a difference with the legislature not in session from her resignation forward -- and we'll have her replacement by the time it convenes again.  I haven't read much about who's running there, and I wonder what the chances are for the Dems.

                  I'm putting more hope into three of the four recalls, of course.  But it's getting so nasty in one of those areas I read about that maybe we can hope for two, anyway.  That will be tenuous but also crucial if Walker wins (or if Walker gets indicted then and we get Kleefisch, ugh).

                  "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

                  by Cream City on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:11:00 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Why don't you just look it up if you don't know? (0+ / 0-)

                before Feingold, Kasten won two races by just a couple points.

                Mediocre Feingold won a close race and a 10 pointer.
                Mediocre Doyle won 4 and 8 pointers.
                Medicore/loser Gore and mediocre/loser Kerry won close races.

                Lucey won twice by 10 points.  Earl by 15.  Nelson by 25 in 1974.

                Obama won by 14.  Clinton won 5 and 10.  
                Mediocre/loser Dukakis won by only 4.

                You can't pretend the numbers don't exist.  Strong Dems win easily.  Mediocre Dems facing mediocre Reps are toosupish.

                In the past 40 years, several Dems have won the state by large margins.  In that time only Tommy has done that as a Republican.  Even Dreyfus didn't manage a 10% win.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 04:20:47 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  With all due respect. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        This is not accurate.

        Check out the Kloppenburg/Prosser election.

        It's not all about Dane/Milwaukee vs. outstate.

        It's really about the huge red margins in the Milwaukee burbs.

        Southwestern and western Wisconsin looked pretty blue in the last election.

  •  Simply amazing! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mconvente, COBALT1928, Midwesterners

    I can't believe that the Democrats are screwing around with a primary. It is a foolish tactic. With all of the signatures to recall this man and he is sitting at 50%.

    I hope the Democrats don't mess this up...

    •  Yep. The state party is dysfunctional (3+ / 0-)

      fpr at least a decade now, and no one has the weight to step in and stop this divisive attack by Dems on the leading Dem to win this one.

      I just got the worst email yet from Falk's forces.  They think this is about the May vote.

      IT'S ABOUT THE JUNE ELECTION.  Jeesh.  They're killin' me.

      "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

      by Cream City on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:39:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The recall was a mistake from day 1 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    savvyspy, COBALT1928

    Now, if Walker wins, unless something major happens, you can forget about beating him in 2012.  And all you would have done is drain time and resources needed for November.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:44:10 AM PDT

    •  2014, you mean. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, BRog

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:50:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  One relates only mildly to the other (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, Midwesterners

      If walker wins now, sure he would beat Barret again in 2014, but the problem here is Barrett (and Falk and Lafollette) is a retread.

      Walker could be beaten in 2014 by a new (to a Gov race), more compelling candidate.  Examples might be Kind, Feingold, Baldwin, Kagen, etc.

      Wisconsin likes to vote for popular Democrats, like Kohl and Proxmire.  Republicans can beat middlingly popular Democrats.  Walker is not the key.  The key is finding a Kohl-like candidate to oppose him in 2014.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:58:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kagen is not compelling. (0+ / 0-)

        He was swept in on the Blue Tide of '06, re-elected because of Obama in 2008, and promptly swept out on the Red Tide of 2010.

        Kind could beat Walker in '14. Feingold could beat Scoot anytime.

        Kind should think about running against Johnson in 2016.
        Someday in the future.

        Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, 6/5/2012- the day the great error of Wisconsin history will be corrected!

        by WisJohn on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:10:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Why would you assume that? (0+ / 0-)

      If the economy takes a turn for the worst again via the Eurozone crisis or large amounts of corruption are revealed in Walker's administration, the momentum could turn against him again.

    •  All of the resources in the recall (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Cream City, rosarugosa, DCCyclone

      Have gone directly into 2012. You think all of the volunteers are going to disappear? You don't think the Obama or Baldwin campaigns would have any use for a massive, up-to-date voter file?

    •  No, that makes no sense at all (0+ / 0-)

      Whether this special election happened or not always was and always will be irrelevant to what happens in 2014.

      Walker's 2014 prospects always depended solely and exclusively on what happens in 2014.  Voters aren't going to say, "I voted for him twice, so I won't fire him now."  Voters don't think like that.

      The only thing this recall and special can hurt is Barrett's own further prospects.  But, there was no reason for him to wait until 2014 when the recall and special against an iffy incumbent is happening now.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:22:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If we lose this year (0+ / 0-)

        I'm done with both Barrett and Falk. Nothing against them per se, but it's kind of sad that our two best candidates this year are the losers of the 2002 primary. We didn't build a bigger bench in ten years?

  •  This is irony at its finest (4+ / 0-)

    The same boost in economic confidence that is causing Obama to become much more popular among swing voters is presumably giving Walker a large boost as well. Ultimately, I imagine that the group that was going to decide these recall elections cared little about union rights and soured on Walker because of the budget cuts, perceived extremism etc. Now that these issues are out of the news cycle and optimism is returning to the public, re-electing an incumbent Republican governor who can be viewed as competent economic manger over "union thugs" or whatever (jesus, I hate people for thinking this) is much easier.

  •  "but with Walker stuck at 50" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, singlemom2012

    Isn't an incumbent hitting the 50% mark usually described on this blog as a good thing for said incumbent, suggesting that he is on course for re-election? I distinctly remember a candidate hitting that mark being described in such a way here a number of times - at least when it concerned a Democratic incumbent.

  •  The good news (5+ / 0-)

    Barrett is still popular with Independents and his poor numbers are more due to Republicans solidifying against him than swing voters souring on him. Walker still has very mediocre numbers that could be taken down a notch or two very easily with an effective ad campaign or a negative news story. Most undecided voters appear likely to break towards Barrett at this point.

    It isn't all bad and we still have a good chance of defeating Walker.

    •  What Democrats should focus on: minority turnout (9+ / 0-)

      Our main weakness during the Prosser/Kloppenburg race was the extremely low turnout among African-Americans and Latinos in Milwaukee. It was remarkable that the race was close in the first place considering how low turnout was in those neighborhoods, we only did it through historic near-Presidential turnout in Madison, and how many presumably uninformed African-Americans voted for Prosser. We need to bring the big guns out: Obama needs to have a rally with Barrett or Falk.

      •  Mitchell (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        COBALT1928, emptythreatsfarm, JBraden

        We need to get Mahlon Mitchell more exposure.  He is a wonderful speaker and comes off as a very likeable  and competent guy.  If we get him more exposure, it will help with the minority turnout.  I'd like to see a big rally in Milwaukee similar to the rallys at the capital.

      •  Oh my, the elephant in the room (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Cream City, ptanow

        Will Obama actually have the political courage?

        Unfortunately his previous behavoir would say a resounding no.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:35:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Gwen Moore just endorsed Barrett (4+ / 0-)

        for the 50th endorsement, I read, from the top Dems -- Congress, mayors, etc.  Now, if that can help get out the turnout in the inner city, that would be good.  But yeh, we need something much bigger.

        It won't be Obama.  We waited all last year for those comfy shoes to carry him here.  And that's too bad.  By the way, he'd be for Barrett; it was the White House that (screwed up the runup to the gubernatorial race in 2010, pushing out the other Dems and pushing him to run, rather late in the campaign, so he had a shortage of funds.  (And then the White House did not get big names and funding here to help him.  This time, so far, only Rahm Emanuel.  Ugh.

        But the biggest problem in 2010 for the Dems was the refusal of WEAC, the state teachers' union, to endorse the Dem for governor.  And this time, their leadership is mucking it up again.  Why the members don't step in and demand a say in these union endorsements -- or non-endorsements -- I dunno.  But the White House ought to meddle again, and this time with the unions.  However, then we're back to that probably not having sway, because of its absence here last year. . . .

        "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

        by Cream City on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:47:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Obama has kept his distance from us in WI. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GeoffT, rosarugosa

        He said he would walk in our shoes.  Instead, I saw him shake Walker's hand.  We have fought big money toe to toe and Obama has not embraced our cause.

    •  Key is a turnout kinda like 2008, not like 2010 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IdahoSocialist, StellaRay, badlands

      The big issue isn't the micro changes involved in changing the undecideds in this heavility Republican sample.

      The key is getting 39D/33R (or 36D...) and not this 31D/32R.

      More reason their sample makes no sense... this is a highly partisan race.  It makes no sense that both D and R numbers are down from 2008, and independants are up.  It just defies logic that that non-partisans are more likely to turnout than the partisans.

      Whatever though, the takeaway from the poll is: if Reps turnout in higher numbers than Dems, Walker wins.  If Dems can turnout by about 4% more than Republicans, then Barrett wins.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:27:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Remember: the question is still amorphous (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    StellaRay, rosarugosa

    This question is still asking the people who will vote Walker out to decide who they have not decided upon, yet.

    I think you'll see people falling in line quite quickly behind whomever the nominee is, once the primary is handled.

    This will be close, but don't wring you hands off, yet.

  •  Ads should focus on the Billionaire Cabal (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peptabysmal, Midwesterners

    when attacking Walker who himself is just a tool for the cabal in their attempt to destroy our democracy.

    Re-elect President Obama because we don't need another selfish President

    by Timmethy on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:27:10 PM PDT

  •  So disheartening (3+ / 0-)

    to these polls, and to see how stupid people in this state have become.  People seem to believe his bullshit ads that claim his plan is working.  They believe schools are doing better and saving money.  They believe jobs are on the upswing.  They believe all his bullshit.

    I think it's in part because he continues to play the victim in each and every damn interview the press does with this moron.  And he keeps hammering on the big union money.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again.  It was STUPID for any union to endorse any candidate.  All it does is give fodder for the anti-union folks.  The unions should have kept their mouths shut, and just spoke with their wallets through super pacs.

    If walker pulls this out, I am not going to enjoy eating humble pie.

  •  Barrett. (6+ / 0-)

    I'd been leaning toward voting for Vinehout, but I've been moving toward Barrett and will probably vote for him now. Mainly because I think Republicans will try to rat fuck the primary and vote for Falk and they (Republicans and Falk) need to be stopped.

    I am so unbelievably tired of Kathleen Falk and her supporters. First they smear Vinehout as "anti-woman" and now they are attacking Barrett for not being pure enough on union issues. I'm sick of it and I don't even like Barrett that much.

  •  We can expect a massive increase in spending (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    joe wobblie

    on advertising just before the recall election, most of it from Republican PACs. It's their normal MO here in Texas and they'll be doing it in Wisconsin also.

    I look for the increase to largely come from the Koch brothers, but they'll have a lot of help.

    Democrats stand for Liberty, Security, Support of Families and Opportunity Whiskey Tango Foxtrot - over

    by Rick B on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 02:25:39 PM PDT

  •  this does not seem to bode well for (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ptanow, rosarugosa

    Democrats...after all of the crap that Walker has pulled, deliberately trying to undermine unions, deliberately trying to disenfranchise people, prostituting himself completely to do the bidding of a couple of billionaires and yet...he's at 50 percent after all of that and leading all comers?

    Hopefully, the Democrats can unite like they did last year. If not, it appears that the Republicans' ongoing "divide-and-conquer" strategy may continue to pay off for them.

  •  Is this Hari Trivedi a spoiler? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peptabysmal

    I mean, is this someone who would take the vote from a Democratic candidate because a voter hates Walker but can't or won't vote for a Democrat?

    Oy vey.

    Ugh. --UB.

    "Daddy, every time a bell rings, a Libertaria­n picks up his Pan Am tickets for the Libertaria­n Paradise of East Somalia!"

    by unclebucky on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 03:44:55 PM PDT

    •  I don't think so. I don't think he is well known (0+ / 0-)

      at all. He just wants to be the governor.

    •  Hari Trivedi people attracted a lot of attention (0+ / 0-)

      from the local residents. We were in the same 'spot' w/voter registration and information.

      There are a lot of young people in that neighborhood. The 2 who were working for Trivedi had a huge professionally done sign depicting a marijuana leaf w/lettering "LEGALIZE MARIJUANA-SIGN HERE". They really were  gathering nomination signatures.It seemed like a lot of people were signing this. They pulled up in a really nice new van worked that spot for a couple of hours.

       This gave me a very uneasy feeling @ the time, still does. Those are some of the voters who would be very likely to want Walkers ass out.

      I'm all for legalizing weed- but this seemed disingenuous, pandering on Trivedis' part, especially given the neighborhood. Ugh.

  •  Crosstabs suggest a profitable line of attack (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ptanow
    Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Scott Walker’s job performance?

                Approve    Disapprove   Not sure
    Women    46          53                 1

    This is about Scott "nah, people who earn 74 cents on the dollar for the same work don't need no recourse for that in Wisconsin courts" Walker.

    Fake candidates nominated by the GOP for the recalls: 6 out of 7. Fake signatures on the recall petitions: 4 out of 1,860,283.

    by GeoffT on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 05:51:37 PM PDT

  •  Since when is going from D+2 to R+1 "not... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rosarugosa

    ... a major difference"?

    That's a 3-pt shift in just one months time. And it's a huge difference from the D+6 Party ID of 2008 (and even the D+1 of the Tea Party-strong 2010 midterms).

  •  Tipped, recced and republished to (0+ / 0-)

    I started with nothing and still have most of it left. - Seasick Steve

    by ruleoflaw on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 08:18:02 PM PDT

  •  Here's my dry Poli-Sci (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rosarugosa

    View on the race.  I don't think polling, one way or another, matters all that much in this race. When you've got an election in early June what matters most is turnout.

    Expounding on that thought, there was a shade over 2.1 million voters who voted in the 2010 Governor's race. A rough estimate of turnout for this election is probably somewhere between 1.5-2 million. So it's a race to a million for both sides. We've got the natural advantage because we've got that list of 900K who signed the recall petition. The main job for the WI Democratic party and the Barrett/Falk campaigns should be to try to get almost 100% turnout about the signees. It's obviously not possible to have 100% as some of those people have moved out of the state and some have died. But that's a very small group and 90-95% is definitely an attainable goal. After that, you begin working on registering new voters and undecideds. But the primary job is getting as many of the petition signees to the polls as possible.

    So, to recap, don't fret too much about these poll numbers as in this race polls mean less than they would in a normal race.

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