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President Obama and Mitt Romney
(White House photo, Rebecca Cook/Reuters)
NYT/CBS. April 13-17. Registered voters. ±3%. (March 7-11 results.)
Obama: 46 (47)
Romney: 46 (44)
According to the poll, 54 percent of Republicans now favor Mitt Romney for the nomination, a surprisingly low number given that he's basically clinched it. Just one-third of Republicans said they were enthusiastic about Romney. Nonetheless, just 8 percent of Republicans said they would not vote for him, and a vote is a vote, whether it is enthusiastic or not.

When it comes to the ground game, however, and convincing voters through personal contact, that lack of enthusiasm will be a problem for Romney, and is a reminder that his path to victory is entirely dependent on winning the air war.

The full poll will be released at 6:30 PM ET. Also coming in the next 24 hours: our own Daily Kos/SEIU weekly tracking poll conducted by Public Policy Polling and April's Wall Street Journal/NBC poll.

9:16 AM PT: To those of you who are freaking out about this poll, or think it reflects some sort of conspiracy to steal the election, get a grip. First, the poll is fairly close to last month's NYT poll—Obama down one, Romney up two. That's not a big change. Second, you should never read too much into any one poll. Third, as fun as it would be to see a blowout election, Republicans didn't make the mistake of nominating Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich. And fourth: it's April. There's a long way to go, and a lot of work to do. Even if this poll had shown Obama up by 10, that would still be the case. And finally, fifth, even if you can't wrap your mind around points one to four, the mere fact that you may not like these numbers is not prima facie evidence of a conspiracy, or evidence of any sort, for that matter. If you have an extraordinary accusation to make, you should bring extraordinary evidence, otherwise you're just living in fantasyland—and this is a reality-based community.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Apr 18, 2012 at 06:45 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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