The majority of Americans do not oppose same-sex marriage. And the same is true, if you believe the latest Pew Research polling, of the subset of Americans Pew sampled who self-identify as African-American.
The crosstabs of the latest Pew Polling asking
Do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally?
show that 49% of African-Americans are opposed, with only 27% strongly opposed. The majority either are in favor, or simply have no opinion. In comparison 48% of men are opposed, with 25% strongly opposed, while 78% of White evangelicals oppose marriage equality, 56% strongly.
What about the topline result of this latest Pew poll? It is also memorable. For the first time in a Pew poll, more Americans favor same-sex marriage than oppose it, and the trendline -- at 2% per annum in increased support and decreased opposition -- is almost eerily consistent.
|
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
2008 |
2004 |
Favor: |
47% |
45% |
43% |
39% |
31% |
Oppose: |
43% |
46% |
47% |
51% |
60% |
More good stuff from the poll and a wonderful video under the squiggle.
How about the historical percentage of people strongly opposed to marriage between same-sex individuals vs. those strongly in favor?
For the first time ever in a Pew poll, there are just as many people fervently in support of marriage equality (22%) as there are those who are very much against it. A recent NBC/WaPo poll confirms this trend with 32% strongly in favor versus 31% strongly against, using slightly different wording. Even the rabid bigots are melting away.
Another interesting stat: out of fifteen crosstab categories in the Pew poll just three -- those sixty-five and older, Republicans, and White evangelicals -- consist of people who oppose same-sex marriage by a majority. At least five categories -- women, those of ages 19-29, Democrats, Independents, and those who are religiously unaffiliated, show majority support.
Pew is just one poll; like all polls subject to error (although it's sample size of more than 3000 US adults makes it less so, compared to more typical polls which sample around 1000 people). What does the national sampling this year look like?
2012 Summary:
PRRI: 52-44
ABC/WaPo: 52-43
NBC/WSJ: 49-40
Pew: 47-43
Average: 50% - 42.5%
That result is far beyond the bounds of statistical uncertainly. More Americans favor marriage equality than those in opposition, of that we are now certain. And it is becoming increasingly likely by the day that a strict majority of Americans support it as well. Somewhere, a Maggie Gallagher is crying in her oatmeal.
As you may know, marriage equality is also on tap for the United Kingdom. Here's a viral video making the case beautifully to those across the Pond with remaining doubts. Enjoy.
8:50 AM PT: Ding!
REALLY BIG NEWS! An impressive group of 15 interfaith African American Clergy in Greensboro stand AGAINST Amendment One in a big way with a full page ad in today's Carolina Peacemaker. They are even planning a Rally Against Amendment One at the 5000-member Mt. Zion Baptist Church on May 6 at 4:30 PM! More on this historic news to come...