Another day, another wild round of ping-ponging numbers from our ever-changing daily tracking polls for the presidential showdown. If you buy stock in the House of Ras (I know ... I know), then Barack Obama has had a sudden and marked surge of support, propelling him back into the lead for the first time in their tracker in well over a week. But if you buy stock in the venerable crew at Gallup, then Barack Obama has a solid lead, and has had it for several days now (of course, they had their whiplash moment last week).
I'd normally chalk all this up to the typical bit of float, but six points in three days is a pretty dramatic float.
Here are those numbers on this Friday lite edition of the Wrap:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION POLLING:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (50-43)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-46)
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (46-45)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
AR-01--D (Talk Business/Hendrix College): Scott Ellington 15, Clark Hall 10, Gary Latanich 4
AR-04--R (Talk Business/Hendrix College): Tom Cotton 39, Beth Anne Rankin 39, John Cowart 4
FL-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack (R) 36; Nelson 44, George LeMieux (R) 30; Nelson 48, Mike McCallister (R) 29
A thought or two, as always, is after the jump.
- The first two weeks where we have been graced with daily tracking polls has served as a pretty good lesson in why you cannot read too much into the peaks and valleys the candidates enjoy in these polls. One marked difference from 2008, at least thus far, however, has been the lack of consistency in the direction of these tracking polls. A cursory glance at the 2008 daily trackers, of which there were a half-dozen or so by the time October rolled around, showed that they had a tendency to move somewhat uniformly. Thus far, Gallup and Rasmussen seem to be moving in opposite directions on more days than not. This, of course, makes it a great deal harder to try to divine any trends in the battle between Mitt Romney and the president.
- The two polls out of Arkansas which we have today (the AR-04 one is a bit dustier than the one from AR-01) underscore the differences in both name recognition and campaign intensity between the Republican primary in the open seat being abandoned by Democrat Mike Ross (AR-04), and the Democratic primary to take on freshman Rep. Rick Crawford (AR-01). Less than one-in-five Republicans are undecided in that highly-pitched battle between 2010 GOP nominee Beth Anne Rankin and establishment favorite Tom Cotton, while more than two-thirds of the Democrats in the 1st district still do not have a preferred candidate. If there is cause for hope for the Democrats there, the same Talk Business/Hendrix College poll found GOP incumbent Rep. Rick Crawford both relatively unknown (only 54 percent had an opinion) and relatively unliked (his favorability spread was 26/28).
- If there was ever a doubt that the campaign of Republican Senate hopeful Connie Mack IV has hit the freaking skids, even the House of Ras has now forsaken him. After leading in the last two Rasmussen polls in the Sunshine State, Scotty Ras now has Mack down double digits to veteran incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D). What's more, there are no saviors in the midst: Nelson whomps George LeMieux and Mike McCallister, too.
- Finally, an interesting point that riffs off of those uber-competitive Arizona polls we saw earlier in the week: Nate Silver explains why Arizona might be competitive in the Fall, but it should not be called a "swing state."