This is my first diary on DKE. I've been a long time follower of the site, stretching back to early 2008, when it was still SSP. I thought I'd provide a brief overview of the upcoming elections in Britain, which will take place next Thursday, (3rd May). Firstly I need to provide a quick explanation of the British political landscape. I'll then talk about the election that will probably get most coverage abroad, the London Mayoral election, before moving on to talk about the elections for local councils across the rest of the country.
The current government is a coalition between the Conservatives, unsurprisingly a right-wing party, and the Liberal Democrats, a centrist party with historically slightly left-of-center leanings. The government came into power in 2010, ending 13 years of uninterrupted center-left Labour Party rule. Since then the Government has pursued a policy of sharply cutting government spending, predictably tipping the country back into recession, which was formally announced this week. The Conservatives have suffered some slippage in the national polls because of this, falling from 36% in 2010 to around 32% today. The Liberal Democrats have suffered far more, with some polls suggesting them falling to as low as 8%, from 23% in 2010, and possibly losing around 40 of their 57 seats in parliament, if a General Election was held tomorrow. The General Election is unlikely to be held before 2015, making elections such as these local ones a key measure of public feeling, although they are unlikely to lead to any major change in Government policy.
The London Mayoral contest is going to come down to a close finish between Conservative Party incumbent Boris Johnson and Labour Party challenger and former mayor himself Ken Livingstone, with other parties such as the Greens and the Liberal Democrats unlikely to get into double figures. Current polls show a small but clear lead for Johnson. This is in stark contrast to the current situation of the Conservatives nationally, and reflects the fact the Johnson is a popular incumbent, due somewhat paradoxically to his numerous gaffes and bumbling aristocrat image, which, inexplicably to myself, Londoners apparently find endearing in their elected officials. Meanwhile, Livingstone is widely seen as a far-left ideologue, who spent time during his last tenure as Mayor meeting with rather unpopular international figures such as Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro. Livingstone also made a major stumble at the start of his campaign, when it emerged that he had engaged in tax avoidance by funneling money through a private company. Although some polls have shown the gap between the two closing, with the unpopularity of the national Conservative-led government possibly dragging Johnson down, Johnson still appears the more likely to win.
Across the rest of Britain the Conservative and their Lib Dem allies are braced for heavy losses in the local council elections. Many of the seats that are up for election this year were last contested in 2008, a year in which the respective parties' voting shares were LAB 24%, LIB 25%, and CON 44%. Current polls have Labour at around 41%, CON 32% and LIB 11%. Projections suggest that Labour will gain around 700 seats, and find themselves with around 3100 of the 8400 councilors up for election this cycle. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are each expected to lose around 350 seats each, leaving the Conservatives on around 2800, and the Liberal Democrats on around 1450.
Update: Latest local polling (http://www.mirror.co.uk/... ) has LAB 32% CON 26% LIB 15%, suggesting Labour gains possibly in the four figures.