Whatever you think of Tim Holden, the fact is that he has had a major impact on how Republicans have drawn eastern Pennsylvania's congressional districts for the past two cycles. In this diary, I take a look at what Republicans could have drawn if they didn't have to worry about Tim Holden.
In this map, I leave the western PA districts (3, 5, 9, 12, 14, and 18) exactly the same. I also don't touch the SEPA districts: 1, 2, 8, and 13.
PA-17 Matt Cartwright (D-Scranton?)
I'll start with the centerpiece of this map. With no Holden to worry about, the new 17th essentially swaps out Schuylkill and Carbon counties for Bethlehem and Allentown. This district goes to a 65% Obama district, essentially an 8 point Democratic swing. CPVI would be around D+12.
PA-10 Tom Marino (R-Williamsport)
PA-10 loses some strong Democratic precincts in Carbondale and East Stroudsburg to PA-17. This allows the district to lose some of the deep red central PA counties (Mifflin, Juniata, Perry) and pick up less Republican areas in Wyoming and Luzerne counties, all the while maintaining the same PVI. 56% McCain 43% Obama R+10.
PA-11 Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton)
PA-11 picks up all of Holden's base in Schuylkill as well as all of Carbon. It also swaps some territory with PA-10 (discussed above) and helps out PA-15 by taking some territory in Monroe and Northampton. End result is 54% McCain 45% Obama R+8.
PA-15 Charlie Dent (R-Allentown)
As you can see, there are some major changes to PA-15. Deep blue Allentown and Bethlehem are no longer in the disctrict and it adds some pretty red territory way out in Cumberland County. By doing this, it allows PA-15 to pick up all of Reading from PA-16 and still become a McCain district. 50% McCain 49% Obama R+5.
PA-16 Joe Pitts (R-Kennett Square)
Losing Reading allows PA-16 to absorb some Democratic precincts in Chester County and give up some red territory in Lancaster to PA-07. End result is 51% McCain 48% Obama R+8.
PA-04 (Open)
PA-04 sheds Republican territory in York to PA-07 and picks up some more of Harrisburg. It still remains a McCain district, but is weakened a bit. 51% McCain 48% Obama R+6.
PA-07 Pat Meehan (R-Drexel Hill)
As if PA-07 wasn't a mess before...it's even worse now. It adds Republican territory in Lancaster and York and loses blue areas of Chester.. I do pull out of Berks, but leave the big mess in Montco. It is now a 50% Obama 49% McCain district, which would leave CPVI somewhere around R+2
PA-06 Jim Gerlach (R-West Pikeland Township)
The 6th adds a little bit of Northampton, Lehigh, and some more of Berks while losing some of Chester to PA-16. It becomes 2 points more R. 51% Obama 48% McCain R+3.
I couldn't quite make all the districts McCain districts, but it's close. I think if the 13th could be sent into Lower Bucks, then the 6th, 7th, and 8th might all be made McCain districts. Either way, the effect Holden had is pretty clear. The 6th, 7th, 11th, 15th, and 16th all become more Republican districts if Holden wasn't around.
If Republicans still hold the trifecta in 2022, this is a preview of what they would draw. Or is it? Assuming Holden isn't the Governor or a Senator, Republicans might still be scared about what a 65 year old Holden could do in PA-11. He could effect even one more round of redistricting.