There are a number of reasons to watch California's Assembly races.
2012 will give Democrats in both the Assembly and the Senate a chance to win 2/3 majorities in both chambers. A 2/3 vote is needed to raise taxes, and with legislative Republicans adamant that they will not raise any taxes no matter how much the state needs revenues, Democrats have been very limited in what they can do.
California has constantly faced economic problems even before the recession began nationwide, and most Democrats argue that tax increases are essential to solving the crisis. Democrats have been unable to win 2/3 before but with the legislative lines created by the Independent Redistricting Commission, the party has its best shot in a very long time. The state has also adopted a new top-two primary system: all candidates face off in the June 5 primary with the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, competing in the November general election. What effect this will have on California's legislative elections is unclear.
California's elections are also worth watching to see what future rising stars may emerge. Over half of the state's Congressional delegation served in the legislature before being elected to Congress. Twelve members of California's House delegation will be at least seventy by the end of the year, and a few will likely retire at some point in the near future. Additionally, redistricting has made many incumbents less safe than before, and some Assemblymembers elected in 2012 may see vulnerable members of Congress as tempting targets. In any case, the odds are decent that a few of the Assemblymembers elected or reelected in 2012 will be running for Congress at some point. The California Republican Party will no doubt be paying extra attention to the results: with the GOP lacking much of a bench in the Golden State, 2012 could be the chance to see if any future standard bearers emerge.
Additionally, with California as one of the world's largest economies, the people who are elected in 2012 will carry a great deal of influence. Even the Assemblymembers who never achieve higher office will still help decide policy in a state that is larger than many countries.
Early voting has already started for the June 5 primary. Assemblymembers are currently limited to three two-year terms, with Senators limited to two four-year terms. However, this may change soon. Proposition 28, which is on the June primary ballot, would allow members of the legislature to serve twelve years in either the Assembly or the Senate, though incumbents would still be restricted to the old rules. There has been very little polling on Prop 28, but it looks likely to pass.
What follows is a guide to the 2012 elections in the first forty (out of eighty) of California's Assembly seats. As I did in my guide to California' Congressional races, I rate every race by how competitive it is, not by which party is favored (although I always say that in the write-up).
A ★ race is the most boring race there is. The winner is all but predetermined and short of a massive scandal or horrific gaffe, there is no need to take a second look at this race.
A ★★ race has the potential to be competitive, but has one candidate who is heavily favored.
A ★★★ race is competitive, with at least two candidates having a reasonable chance to win, but one candidate is still the clear favorite.
A ★★★★ features a very competitive race. There often is no apparent favorite, or if there is s/he faces a very strong opponent who has a good chance to win.
A ★★★★★ race is reserved for the most competitive races in the state. These are the elections where there is no clear favorite, and massive amounts of money will be spent to decide the race.
I don't have any mathematical or scientific formula for rating these races: they're based on my opinion of how competitive the race is. I do heavily factor in fundraising (fundraising reports can be found here). Money isn't everything in politics, but if I feel a candidate isn't raising enough money or is raising a good chunk, that will be a big factor in how I rate their race. All fundraising is rounded up or down to the nearest $1000.
Now to the fun part!
California's 1st Assembly District: OPEN, Yreka, Redding, Susanville.
President: Obama 41%, McCain 53%
Governor: Brown 37%, Whitman 53%
Senate: Boxer 31%, Fiorina 58%
★★★
This race pits two established Republican elected officials against one another. On one side is Lassen County supervisor Brian Dahle, who is backed by many local electeds, the State Sheriffs’ Association, the California Assembly GOP, and several county farm bureaus. Dahle's opponent is Rick Bosetti, a Redding city councilman and former mayor. Bosetti was a Major League Baseball player from 1976-1982 and until recently the head coach of local Simpson University's baseball team. Bosetti touts the endorsements of many business groups, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, his own share of local electeds, and a fellow baseball player turned politician, former Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning. Perhaps most importantly, Northstate Farm and Business PAC, a group largely financed by realtor organizations, has dropped nearly $115,000 on a TV ad supporting Bosetti. This should more than erase the $55,000 cash advantage Dahle reported in late March.
The two Republicans have very few ideological differences, but that hasn't stopped the race from getting negative. Bosetti has attacked Dahle over Lassen County's pension costs, and has filed a complaint with the state accusing Dahle of hiding campaign money. Additionally, both candidates are working hard to establish themselves as the most conservative in the race. Given that there are two Republicans to only one Democrat in the race, the odds appear decent that only one Republican will make it to November. The Democrats have an actual elected official running here: however, Plumas county supervisor Robert Meacher hasn't raised much money and only represents a very small portion of the district, making it very unlikely he could pull off an upset in the general election. For now, given the large financial help Bosetti is getting from his allies, the fact that Bosetti's Redding has far more people than Dahle's Lassen County, and Bosetti's status as a local celebrity due to his baseball days, it appears that he has the advantage here.
California's 2nd Assembly District: Wesley Chesbro (Democrat, represents 83% of district), Crescent City, Fortuna, Mendicino.
President: Obama 67%, McCain 29%
Governor: Brown 59%, Whitman 33%
Senate: Boxer 57%, Fiorina 32%
★
California's 3rd Assembly District: Dan Logue (Republican, represents 56% of district), Chico, Paradise, Yuba City.
President: Obama 44%, McCain 52%
Governor: Brown 39%, Whitman 52%
Senate: Boxer 32%, Fiorina 57%
★★★
Incumbent Dan Logue, the deputy Assembly whip for the GOP, faces a credible challenge from fellow Republican and Tehama County supervisor Bob Williams in this rural Northern California district. Williams is very well connected to agriculture and water interests and has the support of local Assemblyman Jim Nielsen and state Senator (and 1st Congressional District frontrunner) Doug LaMalfa. Logue has the support of the California GOP, Congressman Tom McClintock, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, and local county Republican parties. Logue unsurprisingly boasts a large cash lead over Williams, $193,000 to $58,000 as of late March. Williams has portrayed Logue as a carpetbagger, saying the incumbent switched addresses twice in the last year in order to run in different districts. Logue claims he switched to avoid challenging fellow incumbent Jim Nielsen, and only switched again when Nielsen did not seek reelection. There is one underfunded Democrat here who could reach the general if the GOP vote is split enough. Williams appears too well connected to count out, but Logue starts out the clear favorite here.
California's 4th Assembly District: Mariko Yamada (Democrat, represents 34% of district), Woodland, Napa.
President: Obama 65%, McCain 32%
Governor: Brown 57%, Whitman 36%
Senate: Boxer 54%, Fiorina 37%
★
California's 5th Assembly District OPEN, South Lake Tahoe, Madera.
President: Obama 44%, McCain 53%
Governor: Brown 39%, Whitman 53%
Senate: Boxer 32%, Fiorina 58%
★★★★★
This heavily Republican district, which includes some of Lake Tahoe and Yosemite National Park, will play host to an intense battle. Former Madera County Supervisor Frank Bigelow has the support of Congressmen Jeff Denham and Devin Nunes, and some rich allies; the Mother Lode Taxpayers Association Political Action Committee For Bigelow Assembly 2012 was formed and boosts $200,000 from the independent expenditure committees of the California Dental Association and the California Real Estate. State Republicans seem excited about Bigelow: he was one of only two candidates to be added to the new California Trailblazers list, a program by House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy and the GOP legislative leadership designed to train legislative candidates.
The other major candidate is former Republican Assemblyman and Senator Rico Oller, an outspoken conservative who has been out of politics since he lost his bid for Congress in the 3rd Congressional District in 2004. Oller has the endorsements of the California GOP Assembly, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, Congressman Tom McClintock, the California ProLife Council, and several local county GOPs. Both candidates have similar views on the issues though high-speed rail has emerged as a potential problem for Bigelow. Both candidates oppose high-speed rail, but Ollier is taking advantage of Bigelow's past support for the project. There isn't a large cash difference between them, though Bigelow's allied PAC gives him a big boost. For now there doesn't seem to be a clear favorite, though if Bigelow's allies continue to come through for him that could make the difference. There is one other Republican and two Democrats in this race; it is pretty likely that the small Democratic vote will be split enough to allow Bigelow and Oller to make it to November.
California's 6th Assembly District: Beth Gaines (Republican, represents 50% of district), Rocklin, Roseville, Folsom.
President: Obama 42%, McCain 55%
Governor: Brown 37%, Whitman 57%
Senate: Boxer 32%, Fiorina 60%
★★★★
Incumbent Beth Gaines, who won her seat in a 2011 special election after her predecessor and husband Ted was elected to the state Senate, faces a well-funded social conservative. Andy Pugno, a former legislative staffer and the author and legal counsel of Proposition 8 (which banned same-sex marriage in California in 2008), is making his second run at the Assembly: in 2010 he unsuccessfully defended a Republican-held seat that made up 32% of this district. Pugno has a large cash lead over Gaines, but the incumbent has the support of the California GOP (very useful considering they can send out mail on her behalf), local Republican parties, and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.
Pugno made some headlines when he unsuccessfully sued to stop Gaines from calling herself a small business owner on the ballot, but that dust up is unlikely to impact the race. Pugno has begun attacking Gaines for working at her family's insurance business while in office, claiming that Gaines is only giving her constituents part-time work for a full time paycheck. Pugno was recently endorsed by the Sacramento Bee, the local paper in the district.
A Democrat is in the race and if the party's vote is unified enough he may make it to the general election. Interestingly, Pugno has vowed to drop out if he is not the top GOP vote getter in the June primary. For now, Gaines' establishment support and the family's name recognition in the area probably give her an edge, but Pugno has the potential to surprise.
California's 7th Assembly District: Roger Dickinson (Democrat, represents 56% of district), Sacramento.
President: Obama 67%, McCain 30%
Governor: Brown 65%, Whitman 29%
Senate: Boxer 58%, Fiorina 33%
★
California's 8th Assembly District: OPEN, Citrus Heights, Arden-Arcade, Rancho Cordova.
President: Obama 52%, McCain 45%
Governor: Brown 50%, Whitman 43%
Senate: Boxer 43%, Fiorina 48%
★★★★★
This district, which doesn't obviously favor either party, will feature a November fight that both Democrats and Republicans will be working hard to win. The Republicans fighting for a place in the general election are businesswoman Barbara Ortega and Congressman Dan Lungren's chief-of-staff Peter Tateishi. Tateishi has more money than Ortega ($34,000 to $10,000), and the backing of the California GOP, the GOP Assembly, the Sacramento County GOP, local electeds, his boss Lungren, and the Sacramento Bee. Unless something dramatic changes, its hard to see Ortega winning this.
Waiting in the general election is Rancho Cordova councilman and former mayor Ken Cooley, who unsuccessfully ran for the legislature twice before. As of March, Cooley has a $55,000 to $34,000 cash on hand lead over Tateishi, and the luxury of not needing to spend any of it to secure a place in the general. Both parties will have their eye on this district and at the moment it appears there is no clear favorite in November.
California's 9th Assembly District: Richard Pan (Democrat, represents 0% of district), Elk Grove, Lodi.
President: Obama 59%, McCain 34%
Governor: Brown 58%, Whitman 36%
Senate: Boxer 51%, Fiorina 41%
★★
Democratic incumbent Richard Pan faces a well-established Republican in an area he has never been elected in, but the district's Democratic lean should carry him to victory. Republican Sophia Gonzales-Scherman, the former mayor of Elk Grove, is the frontrunner to face Pan: she has far more funds than her nearest rival, former US Marshal Tony Amador, who unsuccessfully ran for the GOP nomination in the 11th Congressional District in 2010. Gonzales-Scherman has embraced the usual conservative themes of less regulation, and is emphasizing protecting agricultural lands and water rights. Gonzales-Scherman is too established to completely count out at this point, but between the district's Democratic lean and Pan's major financial advantages (Pan had a $217,000 to $33,000 lead as of March), Pan should be the heavy favorite here.
California's 10th Assembly District: Michael Allen (Democrat, represents 19% of district), Sonoma, Petaluma, Novato.
President: Obama 76%, McCain 21%
Governor: Brown 68%, Whitman 27%
Senate: Boxer 66%, Fiorina 27%
★★★★★
Democratic incumbent Michael Allen was separated from most of his district by redistricting, and chose to move into this mainly Marin County district to avoid a tough contest against fellow Democratic incumbent Mariko Yamada. However, Allen will still face a competitive contest from Democratic San Rafael Councilman Marc Levine. Allen has some advantages starting out: while both candidates are well funded, Allen has more cash than Levine as of March ($163,000 to $89,000). Allen also has many prominent endorsements: Allen is backed by Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom, local members of Congress Mike Thompson and Lynn Woolsey, the Democratic legislative leadership, the state party, the California Federation of Teachers, labor groups, and the Sierra club. By contrast, while Levine has many local endorsements, he does not yet have the backing of big name organizations.
However, Allen has had some negative publicity that could hurt him in a district where he is not well known. Levine has hit Allen for moving to the district, portraying him as a Sacramento insider with no connection to the area. Levine has also accused Allen of threatening him at a November event. Allen was until recently on the payroll of two unions as an Assemblymember, and he may have violated conflict of interest laws. The construction of a Native American casino in Marin County has emerged as a big issue in the race: local governments do not want it there, and Levine has come out against it. While Allen has not taken a position, he backed the casino before his election to the Assembly in 2010.
There is another fairly well funded Democrat in the race, but Alex Easton-Brown has much less cash than either Allen or Levine ($31,000 on hand in March) and does not appear to have any endorsements. There are two underfunded Democrats in the race, making this a contest between five Democrats and only one Republican; this makes it possible that the Republican will make it to November, though the strong Democratic lean of the district may prevent that. For now, it looks like a tight contest to see if Allen's financial advantage and endorsements will be enough to overcome his recent rough press and Levine's local ties.
California's 11th Assembly District: OPEN, Vacaville, Fairfield, Antioch.
President: Obama 60%, McCain 37%
Governor: Brown 55%, Whitman 39%
Senate: Boxer 51%, Fiorina 41%
★★
This is an interesting race involving a lot of local past and present electeds. Oakley mayor Jim Frazier appears to be the solid frontrunner: he has easily the most money (over $90,000 on hand, with none of his opponents breaking $20,000 on hand). Frazier has some very good endorsements from local Congressmen John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney, and George Miller, many local legislators and electeds, labor groups, and the California Democratic Party. The other Democrats in the race are retired fire chief Gene Gantt (who has the backing of many fire chiefs and some local electeds), and union negotiator Patricia Hernandez, who's backed by the California Teacher's Association, a few labor groups (including the heavyweight American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees), several legislators, and local electeds. However, as of March both dramatically trail Frazier in cash.
Both the Republican and independent candidates are local electeds as well. Republican Mike Hudson is the vice mayor of Suisun City, but given he had less than $600 on hand in March he's unlikely to go far. More interesting is independent Len Augustine, the former mayor of Vacaville. Augustine has the support of some electeds in Solano County but his relatively weak fundraising ($14,000 cash on hand in March) makes it unlikely he could overcome the Democratic lean of this district if he makes it to the general. For now, given Frazier's large cash lead and many important endorsements, he should be the heavy favorite for this seat.
California's 12th Assembly District: Kristin Olsen (Republican, represents 48% of district), Manteca, Riverbank, Turlock.
President: Obama 45%, McCain 52%
Governor: Brown 39%, Whitman 53%
Senate: Boxer 34%, Fiorina 57%
★
California's 13th Assembly District: OPEN, Stockton, Tracy.
President: Obama 61%, McCain 36%
Governor: Brown 55%, Whitman 38%
Senate: Boxer 51%, Fiorina 41%
★★
Stockton City Councilwoman Susan Eggman appears to be the heavy favorite to take this Central Valley district. She has a large warchest ($128,000 in March), and endorsements from Congressman Jerry McNerney, many legislators, local electeds (including the mayor of Stockton), and several unions. Eggman's main opponent is Democratic community activist and former Marine Xochitl Raya Paderes who is backed by a few local electeds and a boatload of labor groups. Paderes' big obstacle looks to be her lack of funds: she has less than $10,000 on hand. If labor works hard to elect Paderes then she may have a shot, but for now Eggman looks like the heavy favorite. The other Democrat in the race local college trustee Jennet Stebbins, who did not report raising any money by March. Two Republicans are running, which should split the GOP vote enough to send Eggman and Paderes into the general.
California's 14th Assembly District: Susan Bonilla (Democrat, represents 60% of district), Vallejo, Concord, Pittsburg.
President: Obama 69%, McCain 29%
Governor: Brown 62%, Whitman 31%
Senate: Boxer 61%, Fiorina 32%
★
California's 15th Assembly District: Nancy Skinner (Democrat, represents 78% of district), Richmond, Berkeley.
President: Obama 87%, McCain 10%
Governor: Brown 84%, Whitman 12%
Senate: Boxer 84%, Fiorina 12%
★
California's 16th Assembly District: Joan Buchanan (Democrat, represents 51% of district), Walnut Creek, San Ramon, Pleasanton, Livermore.
President: Obama 60%, McCain 37%
Governor: Brown 51%, Whitman 45%
Senate: Boxer 49%, Fiorina 45%
★
California's 17th Assembly District: Tom Ammiano (Democrat, represents 88% of district), Eastern side of San Francisco.
President: Obama 87%, McCain 10%
Governor: Brown 82%, Whitman 13%
Senate: Boxer 80%, Fiorina 11%
★
California's 18th Assembly District: OPEN, Alameda, Oakland, San Leandro.
President: Obama 85%, McCain 12%
Governor: Brown 82%, Whitman 13%
Senate: Boxer 81%, Fiorina 13%
★★★★★
This open seat features three credible and well-funded Democrats. Joel Young, who serves as AC Transit Director, has the most money ($162,00 on hand) and the endorsements of many local papers and unions. Young's campaign has not gone perfectly, as was accused by his ex-girlfriend of domestic violence last summer, which Young denied. However, there have been no new developments in months, and he seems to be withstanding the accusations.
Alameda vice mayor Rob Bonta also enjoys labor support, and has the next largest war chest. ($142,000) Bonta would be one of the first Filipinos to serve in the legislature, and he has attracted attention from the Filipino-American community.
Community college trustee Able Guillen has a $133,000 war chest, and the support of the Sierra Club, Democracy for America, the California Federation of Teachers, and several unions. Guillen, who is bi-sexual, also has the support of several LGBTQ organizations, including Equality California.
Young is usually described as the frontrunner in the local press, but Bonta and Guillen look like they have enough support and money to win. A Republican is in the race as well, but given the district's very Democratic lean the general election should be between two of the Democrats.
California's 19th Assembly District: OPEN, western side of San Francisco, Daly City.
President: Obama 77%, McCain 19%
Governor: Brown 72%, Whitman 23%
Senate: Boxer 70%, Fiorina 21%
★★★★★
San Francisco Assessor Phil Ting, who unsuccessfully ran for mayor last year, looked like he had an easy path to Sacramento until a last minute candidate scrambled things. Michael Breyer, a businessman and the son of US Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, jumped into the race and granted his campaign $100,000, then quickly raised another $50,000. This gives him a March cash lead over Ting of $150,000 to $45,000. During his mayoral campaign, Ting called for raising property taxes, angering business groups and giving Breyer an opening.
Still, Ting has a number of advantages over Breyer that can help him overcome the financial gap. In addition to having superior name recognition, Ting was endorsed by the California Democratic Party before Breyer jumped in, and has a number of other valuable endorsements: unions, teachers groups, the League of Conservation Voters, legislators from the area and across the state, and local elected officials are on Ting's side. This should be a very competitive contest: Ting may be the slight favorite for now, but Breyer looks like he'll have the means to win. One other Democrat and a Republican are in the race, but the heavily Democratic district should produce a Ting-Breyer match-up in November.
California's 20th Assembly District: OPEN, Castro Valley, Hayward, Union City.
President: Obama 71%, McCain 14%
Governor: Brown 67%, Whitman 27%
Senate: Boxer 67%, Fiorina 26%
★★★★
This heavily Democratic East Bay district features a Democratic city councilmember, a well-funded Democratic newcomer, and a well-known mayor running as an independent. The prominent Democrats in this race are Hayward City Councilman Bill Quick and ophthalmologist Jennifer Ong. Quick has the largest war chest ($130,000 on hand), and has the backing of the state Democratic Party, the League of Conservation Voters, labor groups, and local legislators and electeds. Ong, a long time Democratic activist, has the support of a number of unions, local electeds, several legislators from across the state, EMILY's List, and Asian-American groups as well as a $91,000 war chest.
Mark Green, the long-time mayor of Union City, entered this race as an independent after recently leaving the Democratic Party. His well-known profile should make him competitive and several local electeds' endorsements as well the endorsement of a few business groups. However, he has had weak fundraising (only $13,000 on hand). If his business friends spend some cash on him he could do well, but for now his small fundraising looks to be holding him back. There is an underfunded Democrat in the race and a Republican in as well. Given how Democratic this district is it looks pretty likely that Quirk and Ong will meet in November, though Green may be well known enough to win a place in the general. Quirk looks to be the favorite to take the seat, but Ong cannot be counted out.
California's 21st Assembly District: OPEN, Modesto, Merced.
President: Obama 54%, McCain 43%
Governor: Brown 47%, Whitman 45%
Senate: Boxer 42%, Fiorina 49%
★★
On paper, this swing district should be competitive. However, it looks like Democrat Adam Gray, a lecturer at UC Merced and a former legislative staffer, will have an easy path to victory. Gray has the endorsements of the California Democratic Party, the California Teachers Association, many unions, many local elected officials, his old boss Congressman Dennis Cardoza, and termed-out Assemblywoman Cathleen Galgiani, who represents over half the district. Gray also has by far the most money, with $209,000 on hand in March compared with less than $6,000 for his nearest opponent. Gray's only notable Democratic opponent is Lesa Rasmussen, who was elected to the Atwater school board, served in an appointed position on the city council, and lost a race for the Merced County Board of Supervisors. Rasmussen has some local endorsements but reported having no money in March. Two other Democrats are also in the race.
Only one Republican, Jack Mobley, is running and should be Gray's opponent in November. Mobley has run for the legislature twice already and it doesn't look like the third time will be a charm: he had only $5,600 on hand in March. If Mobley can raise a lot more money or find groups willing to spend on him this could be competitive, but for now Gray looks like the heavy favorite.
California's 22nd Assembly District: OPEN, South San Francisco, San Bruno, Redwood City.
President: Obama 72%, McCain 25%
Governor: Brown 64%, Whitman 31%
Senate: Boxer 64%, Fiorina 31%
★
South San Francisco councilman Kevin Mullin, the son of former Assemblymember Gene Mullin, faces little opposition in his run for this seat.
California's 23rd Assembly District: OPEN, Fresno, Clovis.
President: Obama 45%, McCain 53%
Governor: Brown 36%, Whitman 58%
Senate: Boxer 31%, Fiorina 62%
★★★★
The surprise last-second retirement of Republican Linda Halderman led to several Republicans jumping into this race with very little time to prepare a campaign or raise much money. Former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson, who unsuccessfully ran in California's 19th Congressional District in 2010, is the best-known candidate. While Patterson lost 36%-31% to Jeff Denham in 2010, he won majorities in the parts of CA-19 that are included in this district, giving him a good leg up over his competition. However, Patterson has a reputation for being a poor fundraiser, which may hold him back in this race. Patterson's past support for high-speed rail may also be an obstacle for him: while he now opposes the project, his opponents are attacking his long-ago backing of it. However, Patterson's profile and name recognition is still high enough that he is favored to at least advance to the general election, if not win the whole contest.
Clovis Councilmember Bob Whalen is another prominent, though less well-known, GOP candidate here. Whalen ran for the Assembly in 2010, losing to Halderman in the primary. This time he has Halderman's support, as well as the backing of current Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin and local companies and electeds in Clovis. Whalen also got off to a good start at fundraising.
Rounding out the major GOP candidates is Fresno attorney David DeFrank. DeFrank has been able to raise enough money to compete from personal loans and family members. He is not well known but he has prominent Republican campaign consultant Matt Rexroad on his side, which could give the novice candidate a boost. DeFrank is seizing upon his outsider status by promising to forgo his legislative per diem and making the legislature part time. DeFrank has the support of some local companies, but so far lacks much help from elected officials.
Two other candidates are in the race. Republican Clovis planning commissioner Vong Mouanoutoua has raised very little money in the (admittedly) short amount of time he's had, and is unlikely to be much of a factor. One Democrat is running, increasing the odds that the general election will be between only one Republican and him. Besides high speed rail, very few ideological differences between Patterson, Whalen, and DeFrank have emerged. The election will likely be about whether Whalen or DeFrank can reach the general election and beat Patterson, or whether the front-runner can capitalize on his superior name recognition and win.
California's 24th Assembly District: Rich Gordon (Democrat, represents 51% of district), Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale.
President: Obama 73%, McCain 24%
Governor: Brown 64%, Whitman 31%
Senate: Boxer 66%, Fiorina 28%
★
California's 25th Assembly District: Bob Wieckowski (Democrat, represents 49% of district), Fremont, Milpitas, Santa Clara.
President: Obama 68%, McCain 28%
Governor: Brown 61%, Whitman 33%
Senate: Boxer 63%, Fiorina 29%
★★
Freshman Democrat Bob Wieckowski was not done any favors by redistrict, taking in new territory in Santa Clara County that is largely unfamiliar with the former Fremont city councilmember. Wieckowski has drawn a challenge from Democratic Milpitas Vice Mayor Pete McHugh, a politician with a decades long career that includes time as Mayor of Milpitas and on the Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors.
However, Wieckowski starts out as the heavy favorite here. McHugh entered the race in March with no money, while Wieckowski reported $65,000 on hand. Wieckowski is heavily supported by labor and has the endorsement of the California Democratic Party and area electeds. McHugh probably can't count on as much support from his home area as he may like: in 2010 he ran for mayor of Milpitas and came in third place. McHugh's statement that Wieckowski is "nothing but a rubber stamp for Gov. Brown," is also probably not the best way to appeal to voters in this heavily Democratic district. There is one Republican running who could conceivably reach the general election. However, Wieckowski should win no matter who his November foe is.
California's 26th Assembly District: Connie Conway (Republican, represents 76% of district), Visalia, Porterville.
President: Obama 41%, McCain 57%
Governor: Brown 37%, Whitman 55%
Senate: Boxer 29%, Fiorina 61%
★
California's 27th Assembly District: Nora Campos (Democrat, represents 91% of district), San Jose.
President: Obama 70%, McCain 26%
Governor: Brown 64%, Whitman 29%
Senate: Boxer 66%, Fiorina 26%
★
California's 28th Assembly District: Paul Fong (Democrat, represents 23% of district), Cupertino, Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga.
President: Obama 67%, McCain 30%
Governor: Brown 57%, Whitman 38%
Senate: Boxer 58%, Fiorina 34%
★★★
(Disclosure: I used to intern for Paul Fong and will be voting for him in the upcoming election).
Paul Fong is another incumbent who was separated from most of his constituents by redistricting. Fong, who previously represented a heavily Asian-American northern Santa Clara County district now finds himself in a south county heavily white one. Fong has also drawn a well-financed challenger who could give him a real race.
Community college trustee and patent attorney Chad Walsh is Fong's sole opponent. Walsh recently switched his party registration from Republican to independent and has some prominent attorneys and venture capitalists on his side. With the help of personal funds, Walsh has almost as much cash as Fong as of mid-March, trailing the incumbent only $69,000 to $66,000.
Still, Fong has the backing of numerous local officials, as well as the powerful state party. Unions will also be heavily supporting Fong, especially given Walsh's support for pension reform. Given the heavily Democratic lean of the district, that gives him a clear advantage. However, Walsh's money as well as Fong's lack of name recognition in the district gives the challenger an opening. Since there are no other candidates on the ballot, Walsh and Fong will meet again in November.
California's 29th Assembly District: OPEN, Santa Cruz, Seaside.
President: Obama 71%, McCain 26%
Governor: Brown 62%, Whitman 32%
Senate: Boxer 61%, Fiorina 31%
★
Democratic Santa Cruz County Supervisor Mark Stone faces minimal opposition in his bid for this seat.
California's 30th Assembly District: Luis Alejo (Democrat, represents 88% of district), Gilroy, Salinas.
President: Obama 66%, McCain 31%
Governor: Brown 58%, Whitman 35%
Senate: Boxer 57%, Fiorina 35%
★
California's 31st Assembly District: Henry Perea (Democrat, represents 75% of district), Coalinga, Selma, Sanger.
President: Obama 59%, McCain 33%
Governor: Brown 53%, Whitman 39%
Senate: Boxer 46%, Fiorina 44%
★
California's 32nd Assembly District: OPEN, Hanford, Delano, Bakersfield.
President: Obama 52%, McCain 45%
Governor: Brown 49%, Whitman 41%
Senate: Boxer 41%, Fiorina 48%
★★★★★
This swing district is the type of place Democrats need to win in order to get a 2/3 majority, and the GOP needs to win in order to stop them. The area has a large Democratic registration advantage but has not been shy about voting for both parties: most of the district had a Democratic Assemblymember from 2000-2006, before turning red and electing Republicans in both 2008 and 2010. Both parties have strong candidates, setting up one of the must-watch races of 2012.
Kern County supervisor and military veteran Jon McQuiston is the frontrunner for the GOP. McQuiston represents much of the district already and has the endorsement of the California Republican Party and the backing of major Kern County agricultural interests. Two other local elected Republicans are running, but McQuiston should have little trouble defeating them. Former Delano mayor Pedro Rios has some support from small agricultural businesses but little money (McQuiston has a $93,000 to $6,000 cash lead as of March). Former Hanford city councilman Dave Thomas is also running, but the local media has described his campaign as "virtually invisible". Unless something major changes, McQuiston should have no problem securing a spot for the general election.
The only Democrat in the race is Bakersfield City Councilmember Rudy Salas. Salas was only elected in 2010 but has a number of useful political connections as a former intern for Al Gore and legislative aide. Salas has the heavy backing of unions and has the largest warchest as of March, with $123,000 on hand. For now, given the district's swingy nature and history of voting against national trends (going from blue to red in the great Democratic year of 2008), this race is probably a toss-up.
California's 33rd Assembly District: Tim Donnelly (Republican, represents 40% of district), Victorville, Hesperia, Barstow.
President: Obama 41%, McCain 55%
Governor: Brown 35%, Whitman 53%
Senate: Boxer 31%, Fiorina 58%
★★★★★
Freshman Republican Tim Donnelly looks to be in for a rough campaign in this San Bernardino County district. Donnelly, a former Minuteman known for his heavy opposition to undocumented immigrants, is running in a district 60% new to him. Donnelly drew some unfavorable press coverage in January when he was arrested by airport security for trying to bring a loaded gun on board his flight. The incumbent, who claims he forgot he had the gun packed, was given a fine and a three-year probation forbidding him from owning any gun not registered to him.
Donnelly has attracted a tough challenger from Republican Big Bear Lake Mayor Bill Jahn. As of March Jahn has a much larger warchest than Donnelly, leading him $99,000 to $26,000; while Jahn did lend himself $140,000, he still managed to outraise the Assemblymember. Jahn has attacked Donnelly as ineffective in the legislature, pointing out that he has not passed any laws. Jahn has also worked to appeal to more moderate voters, stating “California has huge problems that cannot be solved from the extreme right or extreme left … Our leaders need to work together to find common-sense solutions to the issues we face.”
However, Donnally cannot be counted out. His anti-immigration reputation is likely to appeal to voters in this heavily Republican district; additionally, Donnally has the lion's share of endorsements here. While Jahn has many local nods, Donnally boasts the support of the California Republican Party, the NRA, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayer's Association, the Santa Barbara County Tea Party, and well-known anti-immigration sheriff Joe Arpaio of Arizona. There is one Democrat in the race, though this district is conservative enough that it looks unlikely that he'll make it to the general. If November features a race between Donnally and Jahn, the latter is likely to take most of the non-Republican votes here. Given Donnally's problems Jahn has a very good chance to win here, but the incumbent has enough support to prevail.
California's 34th Assembly District: Shannon Grove (Republican, represents 85% of district), Rosedale, Tehachapi, Ridgecrest.
President: Obama 34%, McCain 63%
Governor: Brown 31%, Whitman 60%
Senate: Boxer 24%, Fiorina 66%
★
California's 35th Assembly District: Katcho Achadjian (Republican, represents 99% of district), Paso Robles, Santa Maria, Lompoc.
President: Obama 49%, McCain 48%
Governor: Brown 42%, Whitman 49%
Senate: Boxer 39%, Fiorina 51%
★
California's 36th Assembly District: OPEN, Lancaster, Palmdale.
President: Obama 48%, McCain 49%
Governor: Brown 40%, Whitman 49%
Senate: Boxer 37%, Fiorina 53%
★★
Two Republican local politicians are running for this open seat. Lancaster Vice Mayor Ron Smith looks like the clear favorite for now over Palmdale councilmember Tom Lackey; Smith has a huge cash lead of $70,000 to $14,000 and the endorsements of incumbent Assemblymember Steve Knight, Congressman Buck McKeon, many local electeds, and law enforcement groups. Lackey has some electeds support but given his cash deficit it looks tough for him to overcome Smith's advantages. There is one Democrat in the race; given that the district usually gives Democrats more than a third of the vote, the odds of him reaching the general election appear decent.
California's 37th Assembly District: Das Williams (Democrat, represents 79% of district), Santa Barbara, Ventura.
President: Obama 64%, McCain 33%
Governor: Brown 52%, Whitman 41%
Senate: Boxer 52%, Fiorina 40%
★
California's 38th Assembly District: OPEN, Simi Valley, Santa Clarita.
President: Obama 49%, McCain 48%
Governor: Brown 39%, Whitman 54%
Senate: Boxer 37%, Fiorina 55%
★★★★
Get ready for a nasty intra-party race here. Two major Republicans are running: Scott Wilk, a former staffer to Congressman Buck McKeon, and Patricia McKeon, the wife of the Congressman. McKeon has little political experience outside of her husband's political campaigns, and is working to portray herself as a suburban wife and mother. McKeon has benefited from her husband's connections, hosting a Washington DC fundraiser and receiving large contributions from defense contractors. She has the support of seven California Congressmen (and Texas Congressman Lamar Smith), state Senator and current CA-26 candidate Tony Strickland, and the Mayor of Santa Clarita (a job her husband used to hold).
Wilk, who served in Congressman McKeon's staff for over five years, has the endorsements of retiring incumbent Cameron Smyth, Congressman Tom McClintock (who may carry some pull since he used to represent Ventura County in the legislature), and some local electeds. Unsurprisingly Wilk trails McKeon in cash, $99,000 to $46,000.
The race has already gotten negative: an anonymous website has attacked McKeon, and Wilk's wife has complained that Congressman McKeon's staffers are attacking her husband. McKeon is facing controversy from the payments her husband's campaign made to her; this type of payment is legal but very frowned upon. Additionally, McKeon recently ducked a debate. Normally that kind of controversy would move very few voters but given that McKeon will be battling charges of nepotism and inexperience this one may have legs. Both candidates are quite conservative so all attacks are likely to remain personal rather than ideological. One underfunded Republican and a Democrat are in the race. Should the Democrat make it to November, this district will be spared more months of nastiness. Right now, due to her money advantages and her family name recognition McKeon looks like she has the edge, though Wilk is a strong enough candidate that he should have a chance.
California's 39th Assembly District: OPEN, East San Fernando Valley.
President: Obama 70%, McCain 25%
Governor: Brown 64%, Whitman 27%
Senate: Boxer 62%, Fiorina 27%
★★★★★
This district features a very intense contest between a long-established Los Angeles politician and a well-funded newcomer. LA City Councilman Richard Alarcon has been in elected office for twenty years, having served as a state Senator, briefly in the Assembly, and in two different tours as a councilmember. Alarcon is running again for the Assembly and he is well financed, with $210,000 on hand. Alarcon has the support of Congresswoman Maxine Waters, several local legislators and LA councilmembers, many local Democratic clubs, and many unions. Alarcon is facing felony perjury and voter fraud charges for allegedly voting in a place he doesn't live; Alarcon and his wife have plead not guilty. A judge recently threw out the case over procedural errors by the prosecution but LA District Attorney Steve Cooley quickly re-filed the charges and the next hearing for the case will be in early June.
Alarcon's main opponent is former legislative aide Raul Bocanegra, who briefly worked for Alarcon. Bocanegra has been able to raise huge sums of money from Sacramento interests, with a warchest of $329,000. Bocanegra's supporters include the California Democratic Party, several legislators including Assembly Majority Leader and LA Assemblymember Ron Calderon, and local LA city councilmember and soon-to-be Congressman Tony Cardenas. Bocanegra faces accusations that he engaged in insider trading over buying himself a condominium, charges he denies. Alarcon has sought to capitalize on this by introducing a motion regarding the city's policy on this type of thing. Recently, a group of women in the district claimed Bocanegra had been accused of sexual harassment in the past.
Three Republicans are running, all but guaranteeing that Alarcon and Bocanegra will face off in November. With Alarcon and Bocanegra both amassing large sums of money and boasting very powerful supporters, it's hard to pick a favorite right now. Alarcon's legal questions look far more dangerous for him than Bocanegra's do, but further developments in both could have a huge impact on the race.
California's 40th Assembly District: Mike Morrell (Republican, represents 66% of district), Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernadino, Redlands, Highland.
President: Obama 52%, McCain 44%
Governor: Brown 45%, Whitman 45%
Senate: Boxer 42%, Fiorina 48%
★★★★
Tea Party favorite Mike Morrell faces a credible challenge from Democratic businessman Russ Warner in this swing district. Warner was the Democratic nominee against Republican incumbent David Drier in the old 26th Congressional District, losing by a relatively decent 53%-40% in 2008 and a much larger 54%-37% in 2010. Warner was running in the new 31st Congressional District but decided to drop down to this Assembly race in January.
So far, Warner's fundraising has been disappointing, with Morrell leading in cash by a massive $216,000 to $12,000. Warner may be able to kick in his own money, having lent himself $288,000 in 2008 (though he invested far less in 2010). If Warner has the cash or California Democrats invest in this district this will likely be one of the year's races to watch. However, Morrell is well known enough in the district that he will be hard to defeat in any case. Morrell looks like the slight favorite so far due to Warner's small amount of cash.
Disagree with my ratings? Did I make any mistakes? Did I leave anything important out? Please let me know in the comments! Part 2 will be out soon!