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Daily Kos Elections is pleased to announce our first set of House race ratings for the 2012 election cycle:

A note on our color scheme: Blue and red seats are held by Democrats and Republicans respectively. Purple seats feature matchups between a Democratic incumbent and a Republican incumbent. Green seats are new seats created by decennial reapportionment pursuant to the census and are controlled by neither party.

Republicans currently control 242 of 435 seats in the House, Democrats 190. Three seats (all formerly held by Democrats) are vacant. 218 seats are needed for control of the chamber. All seats not listed on this chart are considered "Safe" for the party which currently controls them.

AZ-08 is asterisked because our rating refers to the June 12 special election to fill the remainder of ex-Rep. Gabby Giffords' term. The district number for this seat will change to AZ-02 for the regular November election.

Here's how we define our ratings categories:

Safe: Barring unforeseeable developments, one party is certain to win.

Race to Watch: A foreseeable but as-yet unrealized development has the chance to make an otherwise "Safe" race potentially competitive, or an incumbent faces a potentially competitive primary.

Likely: One party has a strong advantage and is likely to win, though the race has the potential to become more competitive.

Lean: One party has an identifiable advantage, but an upset victory is possible for the other party.

Tossup: Both (or all) parties have a strong (though not necessarily perfectly equal) chance of winning.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Not the most promising list (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    although I know this is just a preliminary look at the House races.  I'm assuming that these ratings are largely based on the partisan lean of the district?

    •  I'm sure (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skibum59

      they use several criteria, including partisan lean of the district, qualiry of the opponent, and any extenuating circumstances (eg Cicilline in RI-01).

      It's a good start.  I see a few what I would call stretches, especially in the Likely Republican column (no way Bachmann or Ryan lose, for example).  But overall a decent assessment of where we're at today.

    •  As elucas notes (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, atdnext, itskevin, kman23, gabjoh

      We take many factors into account. We'll probably do a post on this soon, trying to outline our thought process. Partisan lean is important, but so are many other things, like candidate quality, fundraising, etc.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:00:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  We are going to win TX-27 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jeff in CA, Odysseus

        David, ignoring the top-line 2008 59-40 McCain margin, digging back into the past election results at the Congressional level shows that, aside from the 2010 disaster, this district has always had a D-lean to it at the Congressional level.

        In 2008 with Ortiz-27, Hinojosa-15, Doggett-25, and plugging in Obama's numbers in against Ron Paul-14 you have a tight 47-51 race.

        In 2006 with Ortiz-27, Hinojosa-15, Doggett-25, and Shane Sklar running in 14, the Dems had a 53-45 win.

        In 2004 with Ortiz-27, Hinojosa-15, Doggett-25, and plugging in Kerry's numbers in against Ron Paul-14, the Dems had a 52-45 win.

        The GOP base may dislike Obama, but Romney isn't going to bring them out to the polls. Farenthold may be about to skate through the primary (my god is his competition awful), but he is not beloved. A lot of the tea party types feel he betrayed them the moment he got to Washington. And the independents won't like his destructive straight party line, end medicare votes.

        This seat is going to flip D in the fall, Rose Meza Harrison is going to be Blake in November.

        Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com. Get your We are the 99% Yard Sign.

        by DemSign on Fri May 11, 2012 at 07:24:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  TX-27 doesn't exist anymore (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, erush1345

          Closest thing to what was 27 is now called 34. Farenthold is running in 27 which now goes from Corpus to just south of Houston.

          And there's no guarantee Rose (who I like) is making it past County Judge Ronnie McDonald.

          SSP alumni, 27, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10); TX-14 ('12) Disclosure: I work for Nick Lampson, Democrat for TX-14

          by trowaman on Fri May 11, 2012 at 08:51:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not sure I understand your math (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, erush1345

          Are you referring to the recast congressional results from the old districts that were sliced up to make the new 27th?

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Fri May 11, 2012 at 01:16:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  By the way there's an error (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    You put 217 needed for control of the house instead of 218.

    Also, Cravaack at Lean R? I know our candidates aren't the best, but I think he's a tossup at worst and more like Lean D.

    •  We haven't been impressed with the field (8+ / 0-)

      Both Anderson and Nolan have had very soft fundraising. And Clark, the only Dem to raise real money, doesn't seem to have earned a lot of support within the district. What's more, it feels like Nolan has wasted a lot of his time on the conventions, all the while knowing Clark was insisting on a primary, which isn't until August. That means our nominee will only have a short time to turn it around against Cravaack. And I wouldn't be surprised if things turned ugly before then.

      I suspect the DCCC will jump in here with real money at some point—it's too tempting a target. But for now, we aren't sold. (Also, Cravaack's raised over a milion cycle-to-date and still has over $600K on hand.)

      And of course, race ratings would be no fun if people didn't disagree. :)

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Thu May 10, 2012 at 07:58:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yeah, I have to disagree (8+ / 0-)

        with some of these which I think are too pessimistic. I think AZ-01 is Lean D, assuming Kirkpatrick wins the primary (which she should). Same in AZ-09 where the Republican field is underwhelming. I'd also move IL-11 to Lean D - that one I've actually analyzed somewhat in-depth and it's very unlikely that Biggert pulls out large enough margins in Bolingbrook and DuPage County to counteract Aurora and Joliet (which should probably go something like 3-1 for Foster).

        I'd also bump MN-02 up to Lean R (or perhaps MN-06 to Safe R - we definitely have a better shot in the former). NJ-03 should be Lean R given Adler's fundraising and name rec. CA-31 will be Lean D with Hispanics turning out for Obama. Also, while CA-26 is "Tossup," it's also "Lean non-Strickland." So it won't be a Tossup after the primary. also consider NH-02, NV-04, and WA-01 to be Lean D given the lean of the district and (in NH-02's case) the closeness of the 2010 result.

        On the other side, I'd move FL-02 to Likely R because of Bembry's unimpressive fundraising. I'd move both NC-07 and NC-08 to Lean R given the loss of Pantano and Robinson, respectively. and finally, NY-04 to Lean.

        22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:41:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  all my personal opinion of course. n/t (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, gabjoh

          22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:41:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  AZ-01, AZ-09 (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Skaje, bumiputera, kman23

          both would Tilt or Lean Dem even in 2008.  With Obama organizing in the state and doing voter reg that he didn't in 2008, with the Republicans nominating far right candidates, and with Kirkpatrick and a decent candidate in AZ-09, definitely at the most conservative Tilt or Lean D.

          Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

          by James Allen on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:52:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  We've always encouraged people (6+ / 0-)

          To post their own ratings—and indeed, some have! You may want to yourself. Some thoughts in response:

          AZ-01: This has historically been very challenging turf for Democrats. It's gotten bluer, but it's still a district McCain won. (And yes I recognize it's his home state.) I just don't think the NRCC is going to give up here, but we'll see.

          AZ-09: I agree the GOP field is underwhelming, but the Democratic primary is threatening to go seriously off the rails, and none of our candidates is flawless. And heaven forbid Cherny should win the primary.

          IL-11: You may well be right.

          MN-02/06: Obermueller just got into the race. Let's see what a fundraising report looks like first. But just because races are in the same column doesn't mean all their chances are equal. We have some definite longshots in the Likely columns that are closer to being Safe, and some promising races that are closer to being Lean. Given Graves' money, I don't want to call MN-06 "Safe."

          NJ-03: We went back and forth on this one. I doubt Adler has much name rec among normal people—after all, her husband served just one term in the House. She obviously does have connections, and she did pull in a nice quarter, but was that low-hanging fruit? I want to see if she can sustain that. A lot of Democratic hopes have gone to die in this district before.

          CA-31: Probably right, but we want to see how the primary shakes out first. Same situation with CA-26.

          NH-02: The only polling has shown this race a tossup.

          NV-04: Tark outraised Horsford by a hefty margin last quarter. I think between Obama and just the nature of the year, this will probably be Lean D by the end, but for now, we're being cautious.

          WA-01: The primary is making us nervous.

          FL-02: Not unreasonable. I'm sure we'll want to revisit after the 2Q's come in, if not before.

          NC-07/08: These are good points, but Kissell had that internal showing him doing pretty well, and McIntyre is one of a kind. Not quite ready to consign them to John Barrow turf just yet.

          NY-04: We went back and forth on this one, too. What kept it at Likely for the moment is that Becker's fundraising has been joke-level so far. But I don't trust McCarthy and I think we'll have it at Lean soon enough.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:53:47 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thanks for explaining your logic (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, atdnext

            yes, I also considered Kissell's internal, but Bobby Bright also had a very optimistic internal in 2010. So I'm trying to go off of fundamentals rather than one internal poll.

            22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:58:31 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  AZ-01 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sapelcovits, MichaelNY

            our candidate won in 2008, when it was a few points stronger for McCain, with like 55% of the vote, while Obama got 44%, IIRC.  She is looking no less strong this year, and has a better district.

            Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

            by James Allen on Thu May 10, 2012 at 09:39:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Disagree on NV-04, but (sadly) agree on NV-03. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sapelcovits, MichaelNY

            NV-04: I see this as Leans D. Yes, I know Baby Tark had a good quarter of fundraising. And yes, he's "The Son of The Shark". However, he's really a lousy candidate overall who's mostly been in the news for all the wrong reasons. While Horsford may have a close call depending on how much the rurals hate him, I'm increasingly confident that Obama turnout in Clark County will easily push him over the top.

            NV-03: This race is still VERY winnable, and I'm cautiously optimistic that Heck's numbers will fall after the Dem primary ends. Unfortunately, John Oceguera has also been in the news for all the wrong reasons lately. Dems just need to double down and make this race about Heck and his "tea party" pandering again. As long as the race gets back to that, Dems can win.

          •  AZ-09 (5+ / 0-)

            is probably a D+ district absent McCain's home-state effect, and it even went for the Democratic statewide slate in 2010, at least on average (via DRA and the AZ Redistricting Commission's website).  Cherny might not know how to make friends when he's running in a primary, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's a bad general election candidate, and Sinema and Schapira are well-established local politicians.  Meanwhile, do even the Republicans have much confidence in this one?  I'm nobody's idea of an optimist but I'd be pretty surprised if it went Republican.

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Thu May 10, 2012 at 02:35:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  AZ9 (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Leftcandid

              That one could be anywhere between tossup and lean D. Schapira and Sinema are somewhat more liberal than you might want for a historically red, D+3 or so district and Cherny would probably come off as sort of a d-bag. I think most of the uncertainty comes from the GOP side, though. The field looks weak, but the winner could turn out to be a better campaigner than expected and take this one to the wire. If their nominee turns out to be a total stiff, any of the Dems could win in a walk.

              SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Thu May 10, 2012 at 04:03:35 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  yeah (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera, kman23

          Agreed that this seems a little bearish on Democrats' chances in a few districts, though there are some where there are primary issues.  See comments about TX-23 below; that's probably a Tossup if Gallego wins the primary, but Lean R for now on the chance that Gallego isn't the nominee.

          27, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

          by TDDVandy on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:54:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I think that's one we win (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

      by Paleo on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:07:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't disagree with Lean R at this point (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bharat, bumiputera, MichaelNY

      but the district is fairly reflexively Democratic.

      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

      by James Allen on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:10:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  the only thing is... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I still don't completely understand what happened in 2010.  Was there a fundamental shift in voting patterns in MN-08 in 2010 or was it just some fluky aberration.  That will be answered in November, but I'm still scratching my head about 2010.  On the face of it, I'd have a hard time saying Lean R.  I'd go with tossup at this point and then Lean D if a clearly strong candidate emerges.

      •  MN-08-- Reason for 2010 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, MichaelNY

        I've looked at the numbers. Cravaack won in 2010 because a whole lot of Democratic leaning voters on NE Minnesota (especially on the Iron Range) thought Jim Oberstar was too old and out of touch, so they cast an "up yours" vote.  (Oberstar also ran a horribly bad race.)  If every voter in St. Louis County who voted for Mark Dayton for governor had also voted for Jim Oberstar, then Oberstar would have won.

        So long as our candidate can reconnect with and re-ernergize the Democratic-leaning voters in NE Minnesota, we should win this.  Plus, Cravaack has done a lot of things to undermine himself.  This is no worse than a toss-up.

  •  Number of safe seats? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hilltopper, DCal, bumiputera, Adam B

    Great work as always!  Any way for you to write the number of D + R safe seats so we can keep that in mind?  Thanks.

  •  It appears that (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TDDVandy, Paleo

    the Republicans will hold onto the House of Representatives.

    •  We should pick up some seats (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gph11, MichaelNY, TofG

      But I agree, picking up the House is going to be a tall task unless the electorate really turns on the Republicans between now and November.  Redistricting did kind of do a number on us though.

      27, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

      by TDDVandy on Thu May 10, 2012 at 07:57:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  North Carolina alone killed our chances (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dem4evr

        Four seats will probably switch from D to R there.

        Redistricting could have been worse.  But it solidified the Republicans' advantage.

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

        by Paleo on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:14:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The silver lining (0+ / 0-)

          is that 2012 should see Democrats get a clean baseline of districts and seats.  The Republican overshoot of 2010 will be mostly corrected and very few Blue Dog type conservative Democrats of long standing be left.

          November 2014 should t hen see a kind of fair fight contest nationally for the districts in which the Parties are very even.  And if the normal partisan cycle holds, it will be an election in which people are willing to toss out Republicans.

          •  2014 doesn't figure to be even (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            It's likely to favor the Republicans, because it'll be a midterm election in Obama's 2nd term. That is, unless Obama loses.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri May 11, 2012 at 01:41:31 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I've concluded (0+ / 0-)

              that Romney is probably going to win.  Half of the key bloc of swing voters seems to already side his way; the remainder doesn't appear to me to have reason to vote differently.

              Even if Obama wins, the partisan control cycle still seems to be operative where the midterm election is won by the opposition party and control of initiative in Congress switches.  This happened previously in 1998; the second term rule is right only half the time on average.  There is an eight year partisan control cycle that is governing imho which is largely unaffected by actual partisan control of the Presidency.

    •  Looking at that list it's hard to see 25 net gains (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Odysseus

      for Democrats. Dems would have to hold every seat, win every 'likely Dem', 'lean Dem', and every tossup, and then about 10 more.

      It's far from impossible, but it's gonna take a significant wave to get there.

  •  TX-23 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A

    Kind of curious as to the reasoning behind calling that Lean R.

    Canseco's a Teabagger sitting in a swing district.  And, this is probably the one House district in the country where Romney's likely poor performance among Hispanics will have a real effect.  Finally, there aren't any issues with our likely nominee.

    I may be wearing blue shades, but I'm having a tough time seeing this as anything other than a Tossup.

    27, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Thu May 10, 2012 at 07:56:07 AM PDT

    •  need to wait (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TDDVandy

      and see how the primary shakes out. If Ciro Rodriguez wins this seat is a Lean R. If Pete Gallego wins I think it is a tossup. However, Gallego has not raised a ton of money and an expense primary will burn what he has.

    •  We went back and forth on this one (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, James L, TDDVandy, MichaelNY

      Canseco is a wealthy businessman who can self-fund if he needs to, and the district got made a bit redder in redistricting. What's more, Pete Gallego has to deal with a primary from Ciro Rodriguez. While Gallego undoubtedly is the stronger candidate and has raised far more, Ciro's been elected in this region before and has higher name rec. It's not impossible that he'd win the nomination, and given how notoriously weak a campaigner he is, I'd be reluctant to call any rematch between him and Canseco a tossup.

      Also, the presence of John Bustamante on the ballot could push this race to runoff. Bustamante has raised very little, but he's the son of former Rep. Albert Bustamante and could take enough to force Gallego and Quico into a second round if the primary is close.

      I think this very well could be a Tossup by election day, but right now, we're being cautious.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:14:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ah, okay. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Yeah, I could see Lean R being justified if Ciro is the nominee, but probably not Gallego.

        Canseco just intuitively seems like a poor fit for the district, and again, Romney's weakness with Hispanics will probably hurt him a bit.

        27, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

        by TDDVandy on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:40:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Polling links? (0+ / 0-)

    If links could be provided to polling data to come to the conclusions shown, I think that would be really helpful.

    "Reality has a well-known liberal bias." - Stephen Colbert

    by Rob Dapore on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:03:54 AM PDT

  •  233-202 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, atdnext

    Dems + 9.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:04:55 AM PDT

  •  CA-45 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, lordpet8

    Really glad you didnt consider it a safe R seat.  Its an uphill battle definately, but I'all be putting in a lot of man hours for the Kang Campaign this summer.  Hopefully we can get this race more competitive.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

    by Daman09 on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:06:14 AM PDT

  •  Those ratings look about right (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    if you expect it to be 2010 all over again.

    •  It won't be 2010 all over again, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      but we can't really know what it will be. I personally think it will be a bit better than this list shows, but I think the rankings relative to one another are good.

      If I had to guess, I'd say we win all lean Ds, most tossups and a good number of lean Rs. But overall, It is certainly logical, and admits upfront to being relatively conservative for us.

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:38:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That said, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I would be surprised if we don't win EACH Likely D, while I almost expect us to at least get some Likely R's.

        The one rating that I don't get is Nita Lowey.
        I'd place many of our representatives as Likely D instead of Safe D before I'd move Lowey...

        Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

        by R30A on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:49:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Lowey's district was made redder (6+ / 0-)

          And she's facing a wealthy self-funding hedge fund guy who is also a local elected official and who has already dumped a million bucks into the race. Also, Lowey screwed up her signatures to get on the Independence Party line, so she's going to be down a potentially important ballot line in November as a result.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:58:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  It will be interesting to see the Pa. House (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    ratings. It's not impossible Democrats could, even with gerrymandering, do better then expected. Perhaps even 8 seatsof 18?

    •  PA ratings (0+ / 0-)

      PA-01: Safe D
      PA-02: Safe D
      PA-03: Safe R (weak D candidate)
      PA-04: Safe R
      PA-05: Safe R
      PA-06: Likely R (good D candidate, but Gerlach too tough)
      PA-07: Safe R (weak D candidate)
      PA-08: Lean R (blue district, but like to vote R for congress)
      PA-09: Safe R
      PA-10: Safe R
      PA-11: Safe R
      PA-12: Tossup (this will be tossup all the way to the end)
      PA-13: Safe D
      PA-14: Safe D
      PA-15: Safe R (very weak D candidate)
      PA-16: Safe R
      PA-17: Safe D
      PA-18: Safe R (good D candidate, but Murphy won't be beat - already sitting on $1.5 million)

      Best bet for a pickup is PA-08.  All others are out of reach.  And PA-12 has to be worrisome.  Altmire was the better GE candidate in the district and Rothfus has more CoH than Critz.

  •  ND-AL: likely R seems harsh... ? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, R30A, MichaelNY, dem4evr

    While we have no polling whatsoever (and it could be interpreted as telling that a house portion of the ND Democratic Party's Senate poll was not released) the only real data we have is fundraising, which tells a different story: Pam Gulleson (D): $238K raised, $313K COH; Kevin Cramer (R): $44K raised, $199K COH; Brian Kalk: $33K raised, $65K COH

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:50:04 AM PDT

  •  If I haven't made a mistake in counting (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, R30A, atdnext, wu ming, CF of Aus

    it looks like, not counting tossups and new districts, you're projecting a loss of 1 seat for the Democrats. I tend to find that an uncredible forecast, on the face of it. But I wonder whether I'm missing something.

    Do you see any disconnect between your ratings of individual races and your feeling of what the general political climate is, considering the extreme and unprecedented popular disapproval toward Congress in general and the House Republicans in particular (or have those feelings softened appreciably)? I am seeing a considerable chance of an anti-Republican wave, considering the combination of public anger against the Republicans in Congress and the awfulness and out-of-touchness of the Romney campaign, although like an emerging tsunami, the waves have not yet come into sight, only the foretremors.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:53:06 AM PDT

    •  Well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I don't think you can not count tossups!

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Thu May 10, 2012 at 09:11:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  OK, let's count tossups (0+ / 0-)

        7 of them are Republican-held, 9 are Democratic-held, 2 pit Republican incumbents against Democratic incumbents, and 2 are new seats. So if we divide those down the middle, the Democrats would figure to gain approximately 1 seat (the result of subtracting 1/2 of 7 from 1/2 of 9). Add that to the -1 I posted about above, and that amounts to an exact wash - no gain for either party, not counting new seats. Do you really find that credible, as an overall rating?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu May 10, 2012 at 09:21:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  quibbles (6+ / 0-)

    I think a lot of these ratings are far too generous to the GOP.

    CA9: This district was made much more blue. I don't see McNerney losing to a 24 year old rich kid in any year, let alone this year. Likely D.

    CA31: Miller represents very little of this district and is a terrible fit for it--even Boxer won there. Lean D unless Aguilar blows it.

    NV4: This is a blue district and the GOP candidates look fairly weak. Lean D.

    IL10: Dold! is a good fit and Schneider has a thin resume, but it's 63% Obama. Schneider will lose some Obama voters, but probably not nearly enough to lose the race. Lean D.

    IL11: As above, but Foster is a better candidate than Schneider. Lean D.

    FL18: the district isn't really red, and West is stone cold crazy. Tossup at worst.

    IL13: this district is dead even, and the potential GOP candidates look as weak as Gill does. Tossup.

    NV3: Heck barely won in 2010, and this is a purple district. Oceguera looks like a good fit. Tossup.

    MN8: This district is so ancestrally blue that any decently run campaign is likely to beat Cravaack. Lean D.

    WI7: PVI is even, and Duffy looks shaky. Tossup.

    NJ3: Runyan didn't win by much in 2010, and this is still a purple district. Lean R.

    WI8: This is still a 54% Obama district, and Ribble hasn't shown that he can win in anything other than a red wave year. Lean R at worst, more likely tossup.

    At the other end, I think TX14 is likely R. Lampson is a good get, but the district is still very red. CA39 and CA45 are generically somewhere between likely R and safe R: Obama did ok there, but Brown and Boxer got buried as most Dems have historically. With entrenched incumbents, I think both are safe R.

    SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Thu May 10, 2012 at 08:57:22 AM PDT

  •  Maybe I'm an optimist (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, James Allen, askew

    but I see about 15 seats that are tossup or better which the Dems should take plus another 15-20 which in a wave election could also flip.  If it ends up being 2008 all over again I really think the Dems could retake the House and expand their lead in the senate.  

    This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

    by DisNoir36 on Thu May 10, 2012 at 09:02:38 AM PDT

    •  Right now (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen

      The House race (at large) is looking to be something of a wash, where Democrats make a few gains but not enough to get the majority.

      It's easier to predict Senate contests since we have a million more polls of those, the candidates are all mostly defined, and state-by-state results are easier to predict than a national trend. The national Senate vote rarely has a significant correlation to the overall results, because it's all targeted votes.

      After the summer, the picture of the House is going to get much clearer. So I'm not sweating much over it right now, even though my own race ratings are about the same, with Dems barely getting above 200.

  •  I think NY-18 is flippable (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, atdnext

    Nan Hayworth hasn't made herself all popular in the district. It may well come down to who panders to KJ the hardest.

    Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað

    by milkbone on Thu May 10, 2012 at 09:12:33 AM PDT

    •  KJ? n/t (0+ / 0-)

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu May 10, 2012 at 09:21:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It is flippable but I think Nan will hold (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, MichaelNY, milkbone

      We haven't been able to define Rep. Hayworth as too conservative for the district yet. Almost every article will highlight both her conservative and her "moderate" streaks. Unless that conversation changes, I do not think we can beat her.

      The democratic primary could turn pretty nasty. The Democratic front runner, Sean Patrick Maloney, is not from the district nor has ever lived in the district. The local candidates and activists don't seem too happy that a candidate is being forced upon us.

      If I were going to rank the candidates in order of most likely to beat Rep. Hayworth, I would say:

      1) Rich Becker
      2) Sean Patrick Maloney
      3) Matt Alexander
      4) Tom Wilson

      M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

      by slacks on Thu May 10, 2012 at 11:46:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I hope Becker wins. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        He's been very out front in attacking Hayworth, yet I have not seen him attacking his fellow Dems running for the seat. That is the kind of person I want running for us.

        Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

        by R30A on Thu May 10, 2012 at 01:29:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Becker has been attacking Maloney (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, James Allen

          Becker probably was the most ticked off by Maloney jumping in the race because he was considered the front runner. Once Maloney entered the race, Becker's campaign issued statements like:

          "“The choice in this primary could not be more clear. Dr. Becker is a grassroots leader, environmental activist, local elected official, and successful small businessman – while Sean is a district-shopping, ethically compromised insider without any clear connection to the Hudson Valley."

          http://www.politicker.com/...

          He then followed that up with this map to show that Maloney only received 1 donation from the district:

          http://www.scribd.com/...

          M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

          by slacks on Thu May 10, 2012 at 02:10:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  fair enough, I did not see that statement (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            However, a majority of Becker's statements seem to be directed towards the general, and make me think he would be a great asset for us in the house. Vocal, sane, and liberal.

            Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

            by R30A on Thu May 10, 2012 at 06:11:13 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Becker attacks Sean every chance he gets (0+ / 0-)

          Via his supporters. This way Becker can pose as clean. We all know this drill.

          Becker is teed off because Sean Maloney out raised him by a comfortable amount this quarter. And Sean had just entered the race. Sean also out raised Nan Hayworth this quarter.

          Becker is telling the voters that the majority of his money comes from in district but we all know that in order to compete financially outside money is needed.

          Becker's money is all it drying up, as he has no outside connections and he is losing considerable ground on a daily basis.

          Because, Marcel, my sweet, we're going to make a film

          by Shoshanna on Sun May 13, 2012 at 04:14:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Disagree on your ranking (0+ / 0-)

        Sean is the best person to take on and remove nan Hayworth.You should be out there -on a daily basis Becker  is losing ground. Sean actually lives in the district and Becker lives outside the district.  

        And you forgot to list Duane Jackson - people like Duane.

        Because, my sweet, we're going to make a film

        by Shoshanna on Sun May 13, 2012 at 04:35:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Some Points (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          1) Sean literally just moved to Cold Spring. Living in the district and understanding the district are two different things. Dr. Becker lives just barely out of the district and he probably will be living somewhere in Orange County soon.

          2) I excluded Duane back I don't think he has a shot of even winning the primary. He was just named a trustee in Buchanan. He should of focus on that first. He is an interesting candidate for the future.

          3) I think the Dr. vs Dr. match up is what makes Dr. Becker more interesting. He gives the ACA a little more legitimacy during the debates, which will be big for picking up independents. Sean also has Troopergate and a lot of carpetbagging attacks awaiting for him in the general.

          M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

          by slacks on Sun May 13, 2012 at 07:01:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  OH-16 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, IllinoyedR, jncca

    This one stood out to me as a little optimistic. The seat is only 20% of Sutton's old territory, and the partisan lean is clearly Republican. There are some swingy parts of the district, but nothing that is strictly dem territory, whereas Wayne and Medina counties lean strongly republican.

    •  Polls (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Paleo, bumiputera, MichaelNY

      So far two public polls have declared the race a dead heat.  

      There are a lot of rich suburban communities in this district like Strongsville, North Royalton, Medina, Brecksville, Wadsworth (where Renacci was mayor before entering the House), which usually lean republican but people are up in arms because of John Kasich's budget that just about gutted a lot of the school districts in Northeastern Ohio.  That's a major drag on Renacci, that and the fact that he was for SB5, which was HUGELY unpopular in OH-16.  

  •  I colored the map according to your ratings (12+ / 0-)

    Photobucket

    Overall I think you're a little too bearish on our chances in a lot of the Lean R and Likely R seats.  Also, you have PA-07 as safe or was it left off the Likely R list?

  •  I haven't gotten through my whole baseline yet... (5+ / 0-)

    But man, this seems like a very pessimistic batch of predictions from DKE.  

    I guess the first question I have to ask is, if Barack Obama wins the presidency by a modest amount, let's say a 51-48 margin...does anybody really think the national House vote is going to be more than a couple points off from that?  I don't.  For the republicans to hold all these seats they gained in 2010 they will need at least 55% of the national House vote, and I don't see that happening unless Romney at least is over the 50% mark as well.  

    Now to the individual races.  The ones that really stuck out to me were IL-10 and IL-11.  I know that Dold and Biggert aren't schmucks, but with those seats primed to go between 60-65% for Obama, I just don't see enough ticket splitting going on to save them.  MI-1 is another I disagree with, I thought the only public poll there had McDowell well ahead of Benishek.  Maybe that was an internal, but this was a razor-thin race in 2010 and I don't agree with it being any worse than tossup.  Another one I don't agree with is NJ-3...Shelley Adler seems to be fairly capable and Runyan is kind of a sloppy campaigner.  For a swing district like that Likely R is way too pessimistic.  

    On the flip side, I don't see TN-4 being competitive at all...ditto for MN-6, NJ-7, or MO-4.

  •  Good list. The only thing I'd change (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    is AZ-01. Now that its 48% Obama, Kirkpatrick is definitely favored.

    Progressive Dixiecrat. 19, LSU student, NC resident

    by MilesC on Thu May 10, 2012 at 10:28:22 AM PDT

  •  NC-07 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I'm fairly bullish about Rouzer's chances. I really don't think that race is a toss up anymore, especially after seeing his super strong showing in the new parts of the district and seeing how Pantano quickly and emphatically endorsed him.

    Home: IL-10. College: PA-07 (starting this upcoming fall).

    by IllinoyedR on Thu May 10, 2012 at 11:31:09 AM PDT

    •  Taking Robeson County out of the 7th (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IllinoyedR, MichaelNY

      is probably McIntyre's undoing.  Very difficult to see a path to victory without it.  Taking out Wilmington doesn't help either.

      You're right about Rouzer...he absolutely killed it in Johnston County.  Same type of performance in the general and he'll win by a wide margin.

      •  NC-07 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I was sweating bullets thinking about Pantano as the Republican nominee. . . if anyone could lose a 58% McCain district of which half of is yellow dog territory locally, it would be Ilario Pantano. He'd be fine in a completely suburban southern seat that's less Republican presidentially than NC-07 but not in one as rural as NC-07 with an incumbent like Mike McIntyre. The GOP made the right pick for winning in November. McIntyre's camp must have been absolutely distraught as it looked like Rouzer was surely going to lose, right up until election night.

        Pantano was like my side's Ilya Sheyman. . . the ultimate risky pick in a 2012 primary for a US House seat that has a popular incumbent from the party that seat leans against.

        Home: IL-10. College: PA-07 (starting this upcoming fall).

        by IllinoyedR on Thu May 10, 2012 at 11:56:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  IN-08 (0+ / 0-)

    After pretty handily taking down Kristi Risk without saying anything too risky in the process, why is Bucshon's race at only lean R? I for one don't expect Obama to get to 48% in that seat again and Bucshon is basically "generic R" in every way, shape, and form. Plus, he's an incumbent who has some personal wealth.

    All in all these are pretty darn good race ratings. There aren't any I see and think "WHAT!?"

    Home: IL-10. College: PA-07 (starting this upcoming fall).

    by IllinoyedR on Thu May 10, 2012 at 11:34:56 AM PDT

  •  WA 6 is not on the list and should be either (0+ / 0-)

    lean or likely D. I think WA 1 should be lean D rather than tossup.

  •  Wow - A very conservative bunch of ratings (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I was waiting for this diary to show a comparison between race ratings. It was going to show the conservative bias of the 3 usual suspects. If anything Cook et al have a liberal bias to their ratings!

    Still great job as per usual

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

    by CF of Aus on Thu May 10, 2012 at 01:00:25 PM PDT

  •  MI-01 (4+ / 0-)

    I'm a bit confused.  There has only been one poll out in MI-01 since 2010 and it shows McDowell up.  Stack on top of that that before Benishek (who wom in a wave year), the seat was held for years by a Democrat in a district with a rating near 0, and I don't see how anyone with any sense could label this anything other than a toss-up.

  •  Maybe I don't understand your chart, but it leaves (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    me with the impression that you expect the R's to gain seats in the next house and I don't believe that is the case.

    Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a Republican. But I repeat myself. Harry Truman

    by ratcityreprobate on Fri May 11, 2012 at 08:31:33 AM PDT

  •  More pessimistic than Cook (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Why?

    In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act--Orwell

    by jhannon on Fri May 11, 2012 at 08:54:01 AM PDT

    •  I have put up a diary comparing these ratings with (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Cook etc.

      I probably wrote my comment in too much of a hurry.

      I believe that these ratings are conservative in that there is no risky predictions, it literally is a snapshot at the moment.

      I think that they are pessimistic if you view them as what David thinks will happen in November... But clearly (I believe they are just setting a safe baseline to work from that is rock solid with no optimistic feel good ratings)

      I believe that Cook etc whilst coming up with slightly more optimistic ratings will not respond as much as DKE to polling etc as we draw closer to the finish line. Rothenberg tends to take more chances than the others, but in general the ratings are heavily weighted towards the Republican incumbents.

      But my original theory (and that of a few commentators here) is that the three amigos are too conservative in their race ratings - that might be true of the past (clearly) but for their house ratings DKE is far more bearish at the moment.

      I have full faith in David Nir ! I think we can be sure that any race rating changes will be well earned in the future.  

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

      by CF of Aus on Fri May 11, 2012 at 06:48:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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