Some conventional wisdom got sorely tested today, in the relatively smallish sampling of polls released on this primary Tuesday (if you are voting in Nebraska, Idaho, and Oregon).
President Obama is in trouble!
(Unless you count New Hampshire, where a new poll has him outpacing his 2008 margins. Or even the House of Ras, where has made up 6 points in three days)
President Obama is doing just fine!
(Unless you count Wisconsin, where PPP has the state at just a one-point margin)
A Republican can't win in the House in Massachusetts!
(Unless you buy a new poll by a Republican challenger, one that has him leading a veteran Democratic House incumbent)
The gubernatorial race in North Carolina is a lost cause!
(Except PPP has the Democrat halving the Republican lead, in the wake of a competitive primary).
Let's get to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-45)DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (48-46)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45)
NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP): Obama d. Romney (53-41)
WISCONSIN (PPP): Obama d. Romney (47-46)
MA-06 (Global Strategy Group for Tierney): Rep. John Tierney (D) 46, Richard Tisei (R) 31A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...
MA-06 (McLaughlin and Associates for Tisei): Richard Tisei (R) 40, Rep. John Tierney (D) 33
(2014) MT-SEN--D (PPP): Brian Schweitzer 48, Sen. Max Baucus 37
NE-SEN--R (PPP): Deb Fischer 37, Jon Bruning 33, Don Stenberg 17, Pat Flynn 2, Sharyn Elander 1, Spencer Zimmerman 1
NC-GOV (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 46, Walter Dalton (D) 40
WI-GOV (PPP for Daily Kos): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 50, Tom Barrett (D) 45, Hari Trivedi (I) 2
WI-LT GOV (PPP for Daily Kos): Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) 46, Mahlon Mitchell (D) 43
WI-SEN (PPP for Daily Kos): Tommy Thompson (R) 47, Tammy Baldwin (D) 42; Mark Neumann (R) 46, Baldwin 42; Eric Hovde (R) 45, Baldwin 41
- It's tough to draw clear conclusions from the numbers on the presidential race today. New Hampshire, once thought to be somewhat swing-y with almost native son Mitt Romney atop the GOP ticket, looks better for Barack Obama than it even did in 2008. Wisconsin, however, looks tougher for Obama than it has all cycle. Some Twitter commentary has focused on the sample there (it is, to be sure, a more GOP-laden sample than we have seen recently in the Badger State), but the recall elections there may be creating an enthusiasm gap as GOPers in Wisconsin cling tenaciously to "their governor" in the midst of his recall (which is still, as today's poll shows, a race that could go either way). Whether that gap has staying power, or is simply ephemeral, remains to be seen.
- The national numbers are no less clear. The House of Ras, which had Romney winning handily over the weekend, has veered back into tossup territory. But Gallup and PPP show incredible stability, with Gallup unchanged over four days and PPP only moving one point over the last week.
- The PPP Wisconsin poll, out today, did have one bright spot. Democrat Mahlon Mitchell has halved the lead for Republican Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch. Given that there was a name recognition factor in this race that did not exist for the gubernatorial recall, perhaps this isn't that surprising.
- Those dueling Massachusetts numbers, for what it is worth, have a key difference. Tisei's numbers are fairly recent, and Tierney's numbers were tossed out in response. Tierney's numbers, from G.S.G., are more than a tad dusty, having been from a poll conducted in January. Tisei has raised decent cash, and this race should be on everyone's list of races to watch going forward.