Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.
Leading Off:

CO-06: Sometimes it's just amazing when Republicans reveal what lies truly deep in their hearts—amazing not because of the crazy shit they believe, but because they simply cannot censor themselves. Sophomore GOP Rep. Mike Coffman, at a fundraiser last weekend, completely unprompted:

"I don't know whether Barack Obama was born in the United States of America. I don't know that. But I do know this, that in his heart, he's not an American. He's just not an American."
He not only goes birther, but he also questions the president's patriotism in one fell swoop. Coffman immediately knew he'd said the quiet part loud as soon as he was called on it by local TV station 9News, because he claimed he "misspoke" and said he apologizes—but then tried to rationalize his way out of this mess by adding, "I don't believe the president shares my belief in American Exceptionalism." Mmhm.

As you may know, Colorado's 6th Congressional District was made significantly bluer in redistricting, going from a seat John McCain won by a 53-46 margin to one Barack Obama won, 54-45. That's made Coffman extremely vulnerable this year, yet he's still acting as though he's running in the district that repeatedly elected Tom Tancredo to Congress. And it means this screw-up is a huge gift to Democrats, who I'm sure will make great use of it on behalf of Coffman's opponent, state Rep. Joe Miklosi. I love it when Republicans tell us what they really believe.

Senate:

ND-Sen: I feel like today is one of those days filled with a bunch of problematic polls that require extensive writeups to explain what exactly they got wrong. (See my separate RI-01 item below. And I'm obviously not even going to bother with Rasmussen.) Case in point is the new survey from the Fargo Forum, courtesy Essman/Research, the first independent poll of the North Dakota Senate race. (As you may know, the state doesn't allow robocalls, so polls are rare.) Contrary to two unanswered Democratic polls which both showed former state AG Heidi Heitkamp up five points over GOP Rep. Rick Berg, Essman has Berg on top 51-44. They also have Heitkamp beating second-stringer Duane Sand 48-45, but Berg is burying Sand in the GOP primary, 65-21.

But one very big problem stands out: This is a poll of likely voters in the June primary, and that definitely skews things because that electorate is different from what we can expect in November. As I just noted, there's a contested Republican primary for Senate, but also for the House as well. There are also a number of extremely wingnutty ballot measures that are up for a vote in June as well, including one that would eliminate all property taxes, and another on the extremely controversial issue of whether the University of North Dakota should be required to use the "Fighting Sioux" nickname.

But here's the weirdest thing of all. Forum's new poll tested both of these measures (see here and here), yet they did not permit respondents to say they were undecided! So that means that if you didn't care about these freakazoid topics, your answers were thrown out. I can't possibly see how that's a methodologically sound approach. It's bound to yield some kind of hyper-involved sample that doesn't look at all like the electorate would in the general election, and may not even properly reflect the primary electorate either. Why can't we have better polling?

NE-Sen: Rasmussen: Bob Kerrey (D): 38 (34), Deb Fischer (R): 56 (46)

Gubernatorial:

NH-Gov: It would have been awfully late in the cycle to jump into a statewide race, but I guess businessman Bill Binnie was having a hard time making up his mind. Anyhow, he's finally decided that he won't run for governor after all, leaving the Republican primary field to Ovide Lamontagne and Kevin Smith.

House:

AZ-04, AZ-06: FreedomWorks has been busy with the endorsements lately, but like I always say, press releases are cheap. So we'll see if they intend to put any money behind Rep. David Schweikert in AZ-06 (where he faces a primary against fellow Republican Rep. Ben Quayle), and state Sen. Ron Gould, who is trying to deny Rep. Paul Gosar the GOP nomination in AZ-04.

CA-26: Direct mail is really the dark underbelly of politics—unlike TV ads, we rarely get to see copies of mailers posted online. Direct mail also has the advantage of lending itself to carefully considered microtargeting strategies in ways that broadcast buys cannot accommodate. One such example, caught in the comments by DrPhillips, is a recent flyer sent out by Republican state Sen. Tony Strickland to "no-party-preference" voters in advance of the district's top-two primary. Based on the mailer alone, one might be left with the impression that the conservative Strickland is an independent! Not only does it feature an endorsement from Republican-turned-independent state Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher (who's currently running for San Diego mayor), it ends with this slogan under Strickland's mug: "Thoughtful. Independent. For Congress." Yeah, right!

Incidentally, if I were Rep. Bob Filner (the lone Democrat running in the San Diego mayoral race), I might consider using this episode to ding Fletcher for being a faux indy. After all, there already is an actual independent option in the CA-26 contest that Fletcher could have embraced: Ventura County Supervisor Linda "Rocky Road" Parks! (James L)

CT-05: With the Republican 5th District convention coming up this weekend, the field is getting slimmer. Farmington Town Council President Mike Clark is dropping out of the race and endorsing state Sen. Andrew Roraback. Three other candidates also remain: Mark Greenberg, Justin Bernier, and Lisa Wilson-Foley.

MI-14: A ton of Detroit-area leaders just announced their endorsements for Dem Rep. Gary Peters, who is facing fellow Rep. Hansen Clarke in the August primary. Foremost among them is Detroit mayor Dave Bing; the full list is at the link.

ND-AL: It looks like the usual conservative meddlers are not at all happy with the North Dakota Republican Party's attempt to coronate Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk as the GOP nominee for the state's open House seat. The Club for Growth (which is usually pretty good about putting its money where its mouth is) is endorsing Kalk's fellow PSC member, Kevin Cramer, following the same move by FreedomWorks a day earlier. The primary is June 12.

NH-01, NH-02: PPP's new look at the two House races in New Hampshire shows both races are tossups, with both Democratic candidates potentially able to reverse their 2010 defeats. Ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter leads Frank Guinta by 4 in the 1st, while Ann McLane Kuster is tied with Charlie Bass in the 2nd. Based on Shea-Porter's unexpected strength, Daily Kos Election is moving NH-01 from "Lean R" to "Tossup." Click through for our full analysis.

RI-01: Local news station WPRI is out with the first public poll of the Democratic primary (courtesy Fleming & Associates), and, well, let's just say there are some issues with it. The survey finds embattled Dem Rep. David Cicilline just four points head of his challenger, self-described "conservative Democrat" Anthony Gemma, 40-36.

But weirdly, the poll tested likely voters, even though the election is four months away—usually you don't switch to an LV screen until you're a lot closer. And the sample size is about as tiny as can be—just 302. There's also a lot of information we're lacking about the poll's methodology and composition, like the breakdown between Democrats, Republicans, and independents (Rhode Island has an open primary). What's more, the pollster also asked about Cicilline's job approval using the "excellent/good/fair/poor" breakdown, which is inherently problematic. Is "fair" bad? Good? Who knows?

Meanwhile, Gemma's doing his very best to poison the well, saying that he won't support Cicilline if the incumbent wins the primary. That's rather at odds with a statement he made in the same interview, claiming "My number one objective is to keep the seat Democratic." What a joker.

SC-07: A new poll of the GOP primary in the new 7th Congressional District from Francis Marion University and SCNOW.com finds former Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer leading with 22% while Horry County Council Chair Tom Rice is just behind at 21 and former Horry Council Chair Chad Prosser is back at 8. The rest of the nine-candidate field is all at 5% or lower. The primary is June 12.

TX-33: With primary day less than two weeks away, the Democratic contest in Texas's brand-new 33rd Congressional District is getting pretty ugly. In a recent debate, ex-state Rep. Domingo Garcia attacked local companies like GM, American Airlines, and Lockheed Martin on a variety of different grounds, leading state Rep. Mark Veasey to hold a press conference (with ex-Rep. Martin Frost) showing his support for these businesses. Garcia responded with a nasty letter calling Veasey an "errand boy" for "big corporations and Wall Street," prompting an angry reaction from Veasey's supporters, as well as one un-aligned legislator who said: "Calling a black man 'boy' is the stuff of Jim Crow and has no place in modern day political discourse."

Grab Bag:

Campaign for Primary Accountability: Roll Call's Janie Lorber takes a close, detailed look at where the Campaign for Primary Accountability is getting its funding. Even though the group targets both Republican and Democratic incumbents, seemingly without much regard for ideology, almost all of the CPA's donors are supporters of the GOP. On top of that, the CPA recently hired tea party activist Mark Meckler as an adviser, and though Lorber doesn't mention it, the organization's founders were big players in the bygone term limits movement, which was decidedly right-wing in its orientation. So is the CPA really just some kind of conservative front group? If so, it's the weirdest one ever, since they've spent money to help liberal candidates unseat more centrist Democrats, like Matt Cartwright, who beat Blue Dog Rep. Tim Holden in the PA-17 primary.

North Carolina: In PPP's latest batch of North Carolina miscellany, Tom Jensen sees some potentially interesting movement among African American voters in favor of legal recognition of same-sex couples (both in terms of civil unions and gay marriage), in the wake of President Obama's decision to come out in favor of marriage equality. But note that the sample is pretty small, about 150 respondents.

Redistricting Roundup:

KS Redistricting: With Kansas's entire redistricting process utterly off the rails at this point, Secretary of State Kris Kobach is now asking a federal court to step in and draw new district lines. (Kobach's request was filed in a lawsuit brought by a Republican Party precinct committee member.) Because of the impasse, the state's filing deadline has been moved, from June 1 to June 11, but even that delay is starting to look insufficient, given that we're already past the halfway point in May. Given the extreme acrimony between the "moderates" and "conservatives" in the GOP, I'd be shocked if a legislative compromise could be reached, so I very much think redistricting will, as Kobach asks, wind up in the court's hands.

NY Redistricting: The federal court hearing the key lawsuit against New York's new state legislative maps has denied plaintiffs' request for an injunction, in large part because time has essentially run out, meaning that this year's elections will go ahead using the new lines. But the case is far from over: The entire matter will still proceed to adjudication of the merits of the plaintiffs' various legal claims regarding the maps' alleged flaws, which means that we could see different district lines for 2014. The court's ruling is here (PDF).

Media Watch:

AZ-Sen: Republican self-funder Wil Cardon goes negative on his primary opponent, Rep. Jeff Flake, attacking him for supporting an "energy tax" that will cost families "$1,000 more a year for utilities and gas." Size of the buy: $301K.

MT-Sen: In an ad from GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg with weak production values and stiff acting, reg'lar folks respond to Dem Sen. Jon Tester's funny spot about bringing home-grown beef to Washington by saying he's brought back "Washington baloney" to Montana.

NM-Sen: Republican Heather Wilson pledges to be a fiscal conservative, but then tries to have it both ways by throwing in a line attacking "both parties" for "driving us off a cliff." Meanwhile, Democrat Martin Heinrich reiterates his support for protecting Medicare and Social Security, and also mentions his work in saving local jobs at a military base.

TX-Sen: The Club for Growth isn't being shy about their hate for David Dewhurst, pumping in another $927K against him. That amount is mostly going towards an extension of their existing TV ad buy, but also for a significant internet advertising effort. In a press release touting their efforts, the Club says that they've spent nearly $2 million roughing Dewhurst up. Meanwhile, the Texas Conservatives Fund has placed another $200K in ad buys against Dewhurst's chief competitor, Ted Cruz.

Meanwhile, Gov. Rick Perry defends Dewhurst's conservative bona fides in a new radio ad. (James L & David Nir)

WI-Gov: Democrat Tom Barrett's new ad tries to paint Gov. Scott Walker as a "rock star" who's on tour raising money out-of-state while Wisconsin continues to suffer job losses.

CA-24: We mentioned Republican Abel Maldonado's first ad (a positive bio spot) a few days ago. Now we know the size of the buy: $200K. I guess he's trying to avoid getting punked in the top-two primary.

CA-26, NM-01: Women Vote!, a voter mobilization fund of EMILY's List, is spending $26K on mailers supporting Democrat Julia Brownley (CA-26) and $13K in support of Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM-01). (James L)

CA-30: Check out these bizarrely photoshopped mailers from Dem Rep. Brad Sherman: In some (but not all) of them, he's removed his own mother from a family portrait. Allegedly the one with mom went to Jewish households, but the evidence for that is rather thin (though the inside does feature a pic of Sherman and Bibi Netanyahu).

NM-01: Let me make something clear: I despise Marty Chavez and I want him to lose the Democratic primary. (See here and here for some background as to why—and that's just for starters.) But I can't deny that he's capable of making some pretty good ads, ones which even manage to make him seem likeable. In his latest, he has a sparring repeatedly partner pummel his gut for 25 seconds to prove that he can "take a punch"—then lays the poor sap on the floor with a right hook to show that he knows how to throw one, too.

TX-23: Huh, the League of Conservation Voters is throwing down some significant cash—$100K—to block ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez's poorly-funded comeback attempt against GOP Rep. Quico Canseco. The LCV is sending out a series of mailers to 42,000 households, hitting Rodriguez for votes on a number of energy and environmental bills. (Copies of the mailers are available here, here, and here.) Ciro faces a primary with state Rep. Pete Gallego. (James L)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri May 18, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  This got buried in the late night (14+ / 0-)

    discussion NH-02 and Charlie Bass, but I wanted to note again that Bass has not been a moderate person at all since returning to politics. The Washington Post noted this clearly:

    The old version, the one who didn't believe he would lose until the day it happened, was a traditional New England Republican, moderate in substance and style.

    The new Charlie Bass is full of fight. He accuses President Obama of "coddling terrorists" and advancing "extremist" policies, like the Wall Street overhaul bill now facing a Republican filibuster threat on the Senate floor. Bass said recently of "tea party" activists: "God bless every single one of them. Their agenda is exactly the same as mine."

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri May 18, 2012 at 05:11:24 AM PDT

  •  Not good (0+ / 0-)

    http://ronsachs.com/...

    Likely voters again which I really can't get my head around at this stage. But the crosstabs don't look crazy. This isn't a case of Rasmussen having more Republicans just bleeding too many Democrats and behind with independents.

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 05:11:39 AM PDT

    •  I dismiss it just as others (0+ / 0-)

      Only when state polls show movement toward Mitt will I be persuaded.

      Wisconsin is the only one showing that, but of course is part of recall polling and so far is alone in having a shift.  So that still can be treated as isolated.

      If the election were today, Obama still wins big.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 05:38:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Strange that he seems to be polling way under (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        savvyspy

        His approval rating all of a sudden. Very odd.

        "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

        by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 05:40:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Politico's Alexander Burns tweeted... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Dirk McQuigley, ArkDem14, Skaje

          ...this week in response to the CBS/NYT and Fox polls that
          no one in media on the Presidential beat believes Obama in reality is at 43 or Mitt at 39--both are higher.

          I think that's right.

          The national polling has been so volatile recently that I've lost my faith in almost all of it.

          I care only about states.

          And, after all, states are all that really matter.

          Last night's Steve Singiser polling diary had some excellent comments by khyber, Steve Singiser, and fladem where they discussed the state polling having been more predictive of the outcome than national polling in the previous several Presidentials.  Steve, for his part, runs his own model extrapoling "national" numbers from state polls.  I highly recommend reading those comments.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 05:55:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Been there done that (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, Skaje, DCCyclone

            I also believe the president has strength in swing states that doesn't show in national polls. Clear in the fact he doesn't need VA, OH, NC or FL to actually win.

            That being said, my current national average is 47-44 but a chunk of that is based on data going back a bit now. I suspect it'll tighten when fresh numbers emerge.

            However, I've done it this way since 2004 and it seems to compensate for wild swings over a short period of time. It was 46-44 for months before stretching to 48-43 as Santorum quit the race.

            I'll be frank, I'm more anxious about the lack of urgency on this continent than I am about the polling situation in the United States and the impact on the same.

            "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

            by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:09:33 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  The media should also only care about states (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, ljb, bear83

            Because the Electoral College really selects the President, the only purpose of useless national polling is to create the illusion of horse race. Wasn't McCain close or ahead in some national polls even after his campaign tanked w/ the suspension stunt and the fundamentals comment? But the media has a vested interest in fooling us. It also allows them to massively profit by charging higher rates to Crossroads and the rest of the Citizens United largesse permeating the public's airwaves.

            •  Yeah (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, James Allen, bear83

              McCain always looked closer than the electoral college suggested. Obama never took a commanding national lead until the Lehman collapse.

              "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

              by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:13:17 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  It's all about money (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin

              Specifically, it's that polling is expensive, and paying for national polls is a lot cheaper than paying for a dozen or more state polls with the same monthly or bimonthly frequency.  Even in the fall, the major media organizations might pay for 3-5 states at a time for polling, expecting other organizations to poll other states so that everything gets covered somehow.  This far out, no one wants to pay for state polls except very occasionally.  This is what allows PPP and Rasmussen to dominate that market, with Quinnipiac apparently having enough money to poll frequently in a handful of the most important swing states plus some of its geographically proximate blue states.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:34:07 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  I'm not too concerned (0+ / 0-)

      There has been tightening, but I think that is expected. Two of the media polls, CBS and FOX, had contradictory results. And we havent seen results this month from ABC/WaPo, CNN or NBC/WSJ yet.

    •  There may be too many polls (0+ / 0-)

      We are drowning in polls, what are the crosstabs in the Mason-Dixon?  What is the political affilation of Ron Sachs?, I've never heard of them.  A ten point difference between them and Fox?  I found that statistically hard to believe.  I believe that this is, and will be, a very close
      election and we should not underestimate Romney and his billionaire cadre of fund-raisers, but sometimes too much information is bad for the brain.  I read these polls every day and am tempted to echo Chicago "Does anybody really know what time it is?

      •  About 25 or 6 to 4 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        posthuman

        Which makes about as much sense as some of the polling numbers.

        Speaking of Chicago, I'm sure that the Obama staff there has a better grip on which numbers match reality and which are out of whack, both nationally and in key states, and are acting accordingly in choosing their message and what groups or states they need to improve among.

        36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Fri May 18, 2012 at 10:03:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  TX-33: Alameel spend $1.9M in 39 days (0+ / 0-)

    Link (h/t MosheM)

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri May 18, 2012 at 05:14:12 AM PDT

  •  I'm sure this is driving (0+ / 0-)

    a lot of the renewed xenophobia and racism in the white blue collar, middle to lower class demographic:

    http://online.wsj.com/...

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri May 18, 2012 at 05:15:54 AM PDT

  •  Very telling (0+ / 0-)
    TX-33: With primary day less than two weeks away, the Democratic contest in Texas's brand-new 33rd Congressional District is getting pretty ugly. In a recent debate, ex-state Rep. Domingo Garcia attacked local companies like GM, American Airlines, and Lockheed Martin on a variety of different grounds, leading state Rep. Mark Veasey to hold a press conference (with ex-Rep. Martin Frost) showing his support for these businesses. Garcia responded with a nasty letter calling Veasey an "errand boy" for "big corporations and Wall Street," prompting an angry reaction from Veasey's supporters, as well as one un-aligned legislator who said: "Calling a black man 'boy' is the stuff of Jim Crow and has no place in modern day political discourse."
    So basically Veasey wasn't at all upset that he got called a corporate whore.  Instead he fell on the old race baiting trick because he was partially called a boy in an attack.  Completely ignoring the 'errand' part of it though.  

    This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

    by DisNoir36 on Fri May 18, 2012 at 05:54:54 AM PDT

    •  To be fair (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, ArkDem14

      that wasn't Veasey, nor was it even a supporter.

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:02:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It is awkward (0+ / 0-)

        But the whole boy thing is very old racism, not that it was present there. I see it a lot though.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:43:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  State polls and national polls (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, bythesea, tietack, DCCyclone

    McCain won Nebraska by 15 points. Yet Rasmussen has Romney up 14?

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:36:35 AM PDT

    •  One State Where I Suspect..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      savvyspy

      ....Obama is underperforming 2008 is the big one...California.  In 2008, Obama was winning places like Fresno and Riverside Counties in his 22-point statewide victory where I doubt he'll win again this year.  I'd bet Obama's margin for 2012 will be in the 12-15-point range, and could explain some of the disparity between national and state polling.

      •  SurveyUSA had him up 63-31 last month (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ljb, ArkDem14, itskevin, Skaje

        He "only" won by 24 points in 2008.

        "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

        by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:57:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm afraid that doesn't match (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        the data.

        RCP has an average Obama lead of 23.5 points in California, and the end of March SUSA poll Obama was up 31 points, 62-31.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:58:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ah (0+ / 0-)

          62 not 63. Faulty memory!

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:59:52 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Exactly, Obama won the state by 24 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bear83

            points in 2008. At this point, even the last Rasmussen poll had him up 22 points, 57-35, with 8 percent undecided. Split the undecideds 50/50, and it's 61-39, not accounting for Rasmussen's consistent slant, especially early on due to their likely voter models, and the fact they've been even worse and more inconsistent this year.

            The California theory sounds nice, but there's no correspondence in polling to suggest it. In fact the utterly dismal state of the California party and the demographic trends of the state instantly suggest it's extremely improbable that Romney will get over 40% of the vote in the state unless he is winning 51% of the national vote and the election.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:08:41 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  yup (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bear83, DCCyclone, ArkDem14

              Calfornia is one state that's almost certain to keep getting bluer.  Every election it just keeps getting more Democratic than the country at large.

              We keep looking for some big state that will explain Obama's sagging national numbers, and there aren't any.  Obama continues to poll about where he was in 2008 in all the large states.  So I've simply come to the conclusion that one set of polls is simply off, or perhaps both are.

  •  My key lesson learned from the ND-Sen poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, ArkDem14, Eikyu Saha

    All likely voter polls, taken before the applicable primary, are flawed.

    In every case, the typical turnout for a primary is a fraction (somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2) of that for the general.

    And when the "likely" electorate is just a fraction of the whole, Rs almost always are (waaaay) over-represented in that electorate.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:40:14 AM PDT

    •  I thought the standard operation procedure (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, bythesea, tietack, itskevin

      For starting up with likely voters was September. I understand they are more accurate representations of the final result than registered voter models but then the election isn't held in May. Fair enough Republicans do better in them but use them too early then that seems just as unreliable to me as it would be using RV in November.

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:46:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sure, but yesterday's ND-Sen poll made it clear (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea

        pre-primary "likely voter" polls are good only for the primary, even when it specifies "head to head"s for GE matchups.

        And for Presidential purposes, the "primary" is the national conventions.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:39:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There is that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack

          I guess I find it interesting that the state/national poll split is still there even whether the samples are likely voters or registered voters, comparing pollster to pollster and polls by the same company. Rasmussen's likely voter state polls mostly show Obama doing better than Rasmussen's likely voter national polls. The PPP state polls of registered voters + show the president doing better than the PPP national poll of registered voters.

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:46:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Mike Coffman didn't claim (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    happymisanthropy

    that they "quoted him out of context"?

    That's the usual drek we get.

    Sometimes . . . I feel . . . like a redneck with chopsticks . . . Dreaming of squirrel while I'm sucking down squid . . .

    by Pale Jenova on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:45:31 AM PDT

    •  "If I offended anybody..." (7+ / 0-)

      Same school.

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:46:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I called Coffman's office yesterday (4+ / 0-)

      The kid - excuse me, young man - who answered the phone in his DC office sounded close to tears. After I expressed my disgust with Coffman's comments, I asked if he'd taken other calls like mine; he said "all day." I told him I wasn't angry with him (the kid), but at his boss.

      He told me Coffman had apologized, and I asked him where I could find his apology - was it on Coffman's congressional web page? He said it was all over the media, though he didn't know if it was on the web page or not. (I checked - nada.)

      I finished the call by telling him to be sure to tell his boss just how angry I, and many other people, are that he would say anything so stupid and unpatriotic.

      West Virginia's new motto: Ex Os, Ex Mens (go look it up)

      by blonde moment on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:20:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Called his Long Tree Office (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17

        Got a very short conversation where the intern or staffer said that the Congressman apologized and is moving on. I then inquired why would he have to apologize in the first place, what was he apologizing for if this is what he actually believed in his heart? (Silence).

        So in CO we got Lamborn saying that Obama is a tar baby and Coffman saying he is not American and patriotic---sounds like bigotry in cleaner clothes.

        They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither safety nor liberty~Ben Franklin

        by RWN on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:29:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  can mike coffman help it (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slouchsock

    if his constituents are a bag of hammers?

  •  NOTHING is as unAmerican as (8+ / 0-)

    running for president of America........

    #occupywallstreet: Although I know the rhythm you'd prefer me dancing to, I'll turn my revolt into style.

    by xxdr zombiexx on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:48:02 AM PDT

  •  Mike Coffman must think he's invulnerable (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, bythesea, R30A

    While he has a large financial advantage (about $1.8mil raised to Miklosi's $468,000) there's no reason to be so brazenly stupid in that type of district.

    But then again, Birthers aren't known for their smarts.

  •  Rasmussen (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, ArkDem14

    "A president’s Job Approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s Job Approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) at least somewhat disapprove."

    So how the hell does the same poll give him just 44% of the vote?

    Same deal in the CBS poll. 50% approve, 43% of the vote.

    Same deal in the Fox poll. 49% approve, 46% of the vote.

    Does not compute.

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:52:52 AM PDT

  •  Because Mike Coffman... (3+ / 0-)

    Sees into people's hearts, you know, the way a crazy person does.

    This head movie makes my eyes rain.

    by The Lone Apple on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:54:14 AM PDT

  •  NJ-10 SEIU endorses Ron Rice (0+ / 0-)

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:01:01 AM PDT

  •  Romney's first ad for the GE (0+ / 0-)

    Set to run in IA, NC, OH and VA

    http://www.youtube.com/...!

    I think it starts running today.

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:01:16 AM PDT

    •  Not taking advice from Stu Rothenberg then! (0+ / 0-)

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:02:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What was Rothenburg's advice? (0+ / 0-)

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:10:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I thought this was a meme now (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, sapelcovits

          Or is it just me?

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:15:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  you'll have to refresh our memory... n/t (0+ / 0-)
            •  North Carolina isn't a swing state (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Skaje, James Allen, sapelcovits

              "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

              by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:56:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Haha there we go (0+ / 0-)

                when I hear it phrased like that it comes back.

                I wonder at what point Rothenberg will "revise" his assertion about North Carolina.  Perhaps right before the election?

              •  Charlie Cook writes the same today...... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin, sapelcovits

                Here's the link:  http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

                Cook writes, without explanation, he's increasingly skeptical Obama can win NC.

                It's clear from the actions of the Obama and Romney campaigns that it's a pure tossup.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:27:25 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  But here's a CNN story that's more credible... (0+ / 0-)

                  ...in suggesting Obama is less likely to win NC this time than last time:  http://www.cnn.com/...

                  There's a lot of junk in the story.  Commentary about the tough economy and the shine wearing off is all junk to me.

                  The one credible point in the story is this:

                  The president's path to victory becomes even narrower if Republican turnout grows from the dismal 31% showing of 2008 -- a certainty according to political operatives in Raleigh who watched in 2010 as a fired-up GOP captured both houses of the state Legislature for the first time since Reconstruction.
                  That's something I won't dismiss, that GOP vote share might be higher.

                  There also are citations to the vote share and Obama performance with young voters, but that stuff relies on exit polls.  The media treats exit polls as being fully trustworthy, but they're not.  They are polls with margins of error and confidence intervals like all polls, and they have flaws unique to exit polls that you don't see at all with telephone surveys.

                  Indeed, the comment about Republicans constituting 31% of 2008 NC voters also relied on exit polls.

                  And NC is Example 1 of the flaws of exit polls.  In 2004, the exit poll said 26% of voters were black.  This in a state whose population was only 20% black, and where neither candidate campaigned at all, and nothing about John Kerry would've inspired black people to single themselves out to show up in massive droves.  Fortunately, NC provides turnout data by race as an unrequired corollory to otherwise required Voting Rights Act recordkeeping, and we know that the exact black vote share in 2004 was 19.6%...a massive 6.4% lower than the badly flawed exit poll.

                  This linked CNN story relies on even more dubious exit poll data re young voters, with the exit poll having said Obama won NC youth 74-26 but nationally only 66%.  Frankly that's not enough of a difference to treat reliably as a real difference, given margins of error, confidence intervals, and the inherent flaws of exit polling.

                  But then there was this much more credible tidbit from the CNN story:

                  One senior North Carolina Democrat, who insisted on anonymity because of involvement in multiple statewide and legislative campaigns, said private polling in a variety of state races shows that white voters and independents are trending toward Republicans in an alarming way.

                  "The biggest thing Obama has got to overcome here is his problems with white independent voters, those middle-of-the-road voters," the Democrat said. "If he doesn't, we are going to get our asses whipped like I have never seen in my 20 years of doing politics."

                  The Democrat predicted a "bloodbath" for the party in November if those numbers fail to tighten.

                  Holding the convention in Charlotte, this person said, might make for an exciting week but will do little to push the state in Obama's direction: "I'm glad that it's here for sheer state pride, but is it going to make much difference at Wilber's Barbecue in Goldsboro?"

                  That is probably the most credible thing in the story to  potentially dispirit us on NC.

                  But Obama and Romney are spending big in NC, and that means for now it really is a tossup and should be treated as such until the situation changes.

                  On the flip side, the CNN story goes on to discuss OFA's amazing voter registration and other field performance in the state as something that can matter.  Of course, field always matters only on the margins, helping us get over the top only if other factors keep the state in the tossup column in the first place.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:52:32 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  By the way, error in my comment above (0+ / 0-)

                    I didn't proofread well and realize I was wrong to call my first blockquote the "one" credible thing in the CNN story.  It wasn't the only one, and it actually wasn't the most credible point...the second blockquote was a bigger deal to me.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:54:29 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Very interesting (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      DCCyclone

                      To see the number of articles insisting he can't win there when the polling and both campaigns say otherwise. Particularly the Romney campaign. Almost makes me think there is an agenda there. A lot of disconnect right now on a number of fronts.

                      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

                      by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 10:47:21 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I think if there's a way to reconcile, it is... (0+ / 0-)

                        ...that everyone acknowledges current polling establishes a tossup, but there are good reasons to think that won't hold because certain demographics (young whites and maybe middle-aged white swing voters) that Obama needs are not going to show up in sufficient numbers or give him the margins he needs, and also because the turnout model likely will end up including higher GOP vote share than last time.

                        Those are plausible arguments.

                        But they still amount to speculation, not a current reality.

                        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 11:22:54 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

          •  Don't worry (0+ / 0-)

            I got it ;)

            22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:56:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Where is Romney going up with his first ad buy? (7+ / 0-)

    Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia. Why is he wasting money in the "non-swing state" of North Carolina?

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:01:32 AM PDT

    •  Chuck Todd had a smart point on Daily Rundown (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, James Allen

      He said this shows what Romney's must-haves are.  This is where Mitt is planting his flag on his bottom-lines.

      Todd also noted Colorado wasn't on the list, and Todd wondered out loud whether Colorado isn't slipping away and might fall off the rader by the summer.  That was intriguing to me that he said that...it suggests privately both sides see Colorado as Advantage Obama, with a tough road for Mitt.  Todd lists it as a tossup but has written that if you "pushed" the NBC map tossups, Colorado as well as Pennsylvania likely would stay with Obama.  Obvously the public polls are split, with PPP saying Obama up big and Purple Strategies seeing an exact tie...the CW is a lot closer to Purple Strategies.

      It would be a big deal if Colorado is seen as drifting away from Romney over the coming weeks and months.  I think Mitt's map shrinks a lot in that case, since NM already is gone from him and the two combined are 13 electoral votes Kerry didn't get on a night when the states he won total, under today's apportionment, 246.
       

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:25:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Actually, Colorado is on the list, per first read (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...

        Colorado Springs is #4 on the ad buy list for both campaigns, though the pro-Obama ad buy there sort of swamps the Romney buy 2:1.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:35:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Actually no, that's not for Romney's ad (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack

          Only Romney and right-wing superpacs are airing ads there, the Romney campaign spot is not airing there.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 09:02:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The power of direct control of campaign funds (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            It suggests different perceptions on which states are "swing states" between the campaigns and the superPACs.

            Nevertheless, the Obama campaign ad-buy there is serious, perhaps an attempt to "lock-down" CO with ads in the more conservative Colorado Springs market. (It seems similar in nature to the slightly bigger buy in the Roanoke-Lynchburg VA market.)

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Fri May 18, 2012 at 09:16:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't read it as "different" perceptions (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tietack

              Everyone agrees the swing states are more than the four in Romney's first ad buy.  It's just that the fact he picked four up front suggests something distinct about those four vs. the others.

              I wouldn't assume the superpacs don't assume the same things as Romney.  It's just that they have more money banked, no overhead (i.e., staff), and no reason to exist except to air TV ads, so they can spend freely everywhere rather than focusing more narrowly to marshal funds.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 11:25:35 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Birthers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dufffbeer

    Birthers are a small group, but they are an extreme example of thinking dominated by strong visceral emotion with a near total disdain for factual evidence.

    Do you believe that John McCain would have done better?

    by tomwfox on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:02:28 AM PDT

  •  NJ-09 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    I'm not sure how much stock to put into this story, but it sounds like Norcross-bloc party insiders may be pulling for Pascrell: http://www.politickernj.com/...

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:05:21 AM PDT

  •  NJ-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    add another candidate (who is also a potential candidate for NJ-LD-34 Senate), former Obama NJ director Mark Alexander. http://www.politickernj.com/...

    I'd be surprised if a gubernatorial race which is sure to draw big names would have any oxygen for this what's-his-face, but I guess he's welcome to try.

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:07:38 AM PDT

  •  That's not "questioning" his patriotism. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    happymisanthropy

    That's full-out calling him unpatriotic.

  •  But they can never articulate WHY they think it. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, happymisanthropy
  •  ACA (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, DCCyclone

    There are good reasons why the politics of the SCOTUS decision, whatever it is, are not clear cut. This is a good one.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:17:30 AM PDT

  •  Keep it up, Republicans (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, happymisanthropy

    I want you Republicans to keep on calling Obama a Communist, make fools of yourselves in November.

    Censorship is rogue government.

    by scott5js on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:28:41 AM PDT

  •  Well I guess I'm not a "real" American either (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    happymisanthropy

    because I get sad and angry and pissed off when I see that, for example, the US is the only country where we don't give paid maternity leave.  Or that we pass draconian laws against women.  Or that we elect jagweeds that lower taxes and then cut services.  Apparently the Republican plan is to make the US look like the worst country in the world.  And watch out kids when you're driving around on crumbling roads and bridges about to fall down.  

    The woman with the maroon hair had fallen to her knees and was asking the sky, “What I done wrong, God? Tell me, Lord. I been good.” “You’re kneeling on Rex’s grave!” Ignatius shouted.

    by gracielove on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:24:27 AM PDT

  •  NM-01: Chavez is Sinking (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17

    I've had a lot of face time with Abq Heights primary voters the last few days and save one yard sign, none of them like Marty Chavez.  Almost all of them are already sold on Eric Griego.  

    I was surprised to see in this diary that EM's list came out for Michelle Lujan-Grisham who was a soldier in the administration of ex-GOP Gov, now Libertarian Pres candidate, Gary Johnson.  I just don't see how she comes out favorably on womens' issues.

    Bottom line is, Eric Griego is the only valid choice in NM-01.

    "And once again, the forces of niceness and goodness have triumphed over the forces of evil and rottenness." --Maxwell Smart

    by emobile on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:49:59 AM PDT

    •  What are you talking about? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, bumiputera, jncca, DCCyclone

      A cult of personality is beginning to develop around Griego, or has already. This is the 2nd person to come on here attacking MLG with outright lies.

      Lets set the story straight. She began her career as New Mexico State Agency on Aging under Democratic Governor Bruce King. Gary Johnson was going to put one of his own in her position, but many senior citizen groups demanded that she remain in the position. When Bill Richardson was elected, he appointed her the head of the Department of Health.

      Where may I ask, did you get the idea that she was not pro-choice?

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Fri May 18, 2012 at 09:21:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not disputing that part (0+ / 0-)

        I would never dispute whether MLG is pro choice ... I'm pretty sure all 3 candidates are.  So my problem was that why is EMILY's choosing one candidate over another in the primary?  Why not save that money to use against whatever GOP nutter they face in the fall?

        Griego certainly is the darling of progressive blogs, and I'll admit that I'm seeing stars over him at this point, but hey I do respect any defense of the rest of the field and I appreciate your input.

        "And once again, the forces of niceness and goodness have triumphed over the forces of evil and rottenness." --Maxwell Smart

        by emobile on Fri May 18, 2012 at 10:49:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  To be fair to EMILY's List (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          emobile, CF of Aus

          it's their general MO to choose pro-choice women in the primary, even if the other candidates are pro-choice men. I wouldn't say I agree with it per se, but it's not just this race where they're doing that.

          22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Fri May 18, 2012 at 10:55:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I can respect this response. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          emobile

          To answer your question, what sapelcovits said.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Fri May 18, 2012 at 10:58:18 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Exceptionalism (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera

    I have always wondered about that word. Does it mean that we are above intl law because we are somehow special. That would seem to be a reflection of the attitude of some GOP.

    'Laws don't apply to us because we are so rich, isn't that right Williams?' 'Yes Sir, it is'
    If other states claimed exceptionalism, like North Korean Exceptionalism, Syrian Exceptionalism, heck German Exceptionslism.  They come across as rogue states or somewhat dangerous in expansionary goals.
  •  VoteVets.org sent out a petition on Coffman.... (0+ / 0-)

    yesterday to raise awareness of him using his status as a former Marine to attack President Obama.

    You can see it here.....

    Please sign on!

    You can continue to serve with Votevets.org

    by rickeagle on Fri May 18, 2012 at 09:41:20 AM PDT

  •  acceptable in rural districts (0+ / 0-)

    "Political analyst Floyd Ciruli told The Denver Post in March that it's inconceivable that a candidate won't do or say something that will eventually make them go on the defensive.

    “There's a lot of things you can say in rural parts of a district that would be acceptable there but are controversial in urban and suburban communities,” Ciruli said."

    So, its acceptable to say the president is not American in rural districts?  

    Coffman's statement, as we know here, was not an inadvertent gaffe, it was hate speech designed to stir up the rabble.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site