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We're never going to have the trifecta here again, but this would be an awesome map.  It's also my belief, although obviously courts may rule against me, that LA losing a seat means it is no longer required to have a VRA 50% seat, and that this will suffice, especially because there are 2 majority minority seats (1 is 50.1% White, but with the Census report on minority undercounts, I'm confident it's majority minority as well).

So my 2nd and 6th districts will both elect the Black community's candidate of choice.

Anyway...here's the map:

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Red and Black are the GOP vote sinks.

LA-1: Steve Scalise (R)
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Parishes Completely/Nearly Completely Contained: Livingston, Jefferson
Parishes Partially Contained: Washington, Tangipahoa, East Baton Rouge, Ascencion, St. Charles, West Baton Rouge, St Martin, Lafayette
Cities: Much of Metairie, Kenner, also Denham Springs
PVI: R+23
Avg: R+22

This district is full of straight ticket suburban Republicans in the two major parishes contained here and manages to be 79.5% White, quite a feat in the Deep South.  No Democrat will even get 40% of the vote here, even in the best Dem years.

LA-2: Cedric Richmond (D)
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Major Parishes: Orleans, St Tammany, St John, St James
Minor Parishes: Jefferson, St Charles, Assumption, Ascencion, Iberville
2008 PVI: D+4
Avg: D+10
Racial: 45 W/46 B
Cities: New Orleans, Slidell, Covington, some Metairie

This is the controversial one, but I think it should pass muster from a non-legal but common sense standpoint, which I realize isn't one courts care about.  The Black community will easily elect the candidate of their choice and will dominate the Dem primary, especially since St Tammany and Jefferson have lots of registered Republicans.  A New Orleans Dem will basically always get elected here.

LA-3: Jeff Landry (R), Charles Boustany? (R)
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Major Parishes: St Bernard, Plaquemines, Lafourche, Terrebonne, St Mary, Assumption, Vermilion
Minor Parishes: Calcasieu, Lafayette, Orleans, Cameron, Iberia, St Martin, Iberville
2008 PVI: R+10
Avg: D+1
Cities: Lake Charles, Houma, some New Orleans, some Lafayette

Dropping LA-2 to 46% Black frees up a few neighborhoods of the city to go into this district and boost the PVI slightly.  I'd rate this a Tossup, especially with freshman and outsider Landry.  The district is 26% Black, so the nominee will probably be a White conservaDem who loves the oil industry.  Maybe a Chris John or Charlie Melancon comeback?

LA-4: John Fleming (R) or Rodney Alexander (R) vs. Paul Carmouche? (D)
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Major Parishes: Caddo, Bossier, Ouachita, Claiborne, Bienville, Lincoln, Jackson, Union, Morehouse, Red River, Natchitoches, Vernon
Minor Parishes: Rapides, Grant, Winn, Sabine, Webster, Caldwell
PVI: R+6
Avg: D+2
Cities: Shreveport, Monroe, Alexandria, Bossier City, Natchitoches

This district actually is pretty compact for a Dem gerrymander.  Fleming should at least be highly vulnerable here (I'm assuming he wins the primary based on territory), especially since he's a bit of a goofball (remember him quoting The Onion earlier this year?)  Anyway, I love this district.  One problem for a White conservaDem is the fact that this district is 41% Black, and they're probably a majority in the primary.  Tilt R?  I'm not sure what to call it.

LA-5: Charles Boustany? (R) or OPEN
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Major Parishes: La Salle, Richland, Beauregarde, Acadia
Partial Parishes: Calcasieu, Lafayette, Jeff Davis, Vermilion, Iberia, Sabine, De Soto, Caddo, Bossier, Webster, Franklin, Caldwell, Winn, Grant, Rapides
PVI: R+34
Avg: R+24
Major Cities: some Lafayette

Incredibly Republican (the most Republican in the country), incredibly rural, and 84% White.  This is a tremendous GOP vote sink and very ugly, but effective.

LA-6: Bill Cassidy (R) or OPEN
Photobucket

Whole/Mostly Whole Parishes: W&E Carroll, Madison, Tensas, Concordia, Avoyelles, St Landry, Pt Coupee, W&E Feliciana, St Helena, Evangeline, Allen
Partial Parishes: W&E Baton Rouge, Catahoula, Franklin, Rapides, Tangipahoa, Washington, Jeff Davis, St Martin, Iberville
PVI: EVEN
Avg: D+8
Major Cities: Baton Rouge, Opelousas, most of Hammond

Cassidy probably would retire, as he's going to challenge Landrieu in 2014 most likely and wouldn't want to risk a loss, which would damage his reputation.  That makes it a Tilt D seat, possibly Lean D with the right Blue Dog.  45% Black here, and if we found the next Sanford Bishop that would be ideal.  Like LA-4, this one is actually relatively clean.

Comment what you think.

Originally posted to jncca on Sat May 26, 2012 at 06:48 PM PDT.

Also republished by Louisiana Kossacks.

Poll

How many seats would Dems win here?

15%7 votes
17%8 votes
46%21 votes
17%8 votes
2%1 votes
0%0 votes

| 45 votes | Vote | Results

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