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Leading Off:

IL-08: Republican Rep. Joe Walsh's latest quotable moment:

"We have so many people now dependent upon government. So many people want handouts. The Democratic Party promises groups of people everything. They want the Hispanic vote. They want the Hispanics to be dependent upon government, just like they got African Americans dependent upon government. That’s their game. Jesse Jackson would be out of work if they weren’t dependent upon government. There’d be no work for him."

Senate:

AZ-Sen: Wil Cardon hits his Republican primary opponent, Rep. Jeff Flake, for his excessive travel habits: "Flake travels the world on the taxpayer's dime, more than any Arizona congressman." The imagery is sort of fun and makes me wish I could travel like that. Size of the buy: $288K.

CT-Sen: It looks like New York-style feuding over minor-party ballot access is coming to Connecticut, one of the few states in the nation where so-called "fusion" voting is also allowed. (Fusion voting allows one candidate to combine votes received on more than one ballot line.) While the Working Families Party has operated in the Nutmeg State for a number of years, they're an organized bunch, and there's never any doubt about who's earned their endorsement. But now there's a battle over who gets to appear on the semi-defunct Independent Party's line this fall—the kind of party banner you want to appear under because unaffiliated low-information might feel more drawn to pulling the lever for an "independent" candidate rather than casting a vote on the Democratic or Republican line. (The same sparring happens over the slightly-differently-named Independence party in New York.)

In any event, zillionaire wrestling impresario Linda McMahon, in addition to vying for the Republican nomination, is also hoping to secure the Independent slot, but because of the IP's wobbly electoral status, she has to submit 7,500 signatures in order to so. Not a big deal for someone with McMahon's wealth, of course, but as so often happens when the stakes are so small, there's a bitter Judean People's Front/People's Front of Judea split in the Independent Party. And it seems quite possible that another faction could try to endorse someone else. But if two candidates both file petitions, then that sets off a matter/anti-matter explosion in the Secretary of State's office and no one gets to make the ballot in the Independent line. Here's hoping!

MO-Sen: Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS keeps whaling away at Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill. The lead-in for their newest ad: "ObamaCare? More like ObamaClaire!" OMG SO FUNNY STOP YOU'RE KILLING ME. Size of the buy: $516K.

NV-Sen (PDF): NBC/Marist just released battleground polls in Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada, but only the last one has a downballot component. In their first survey of the Senate race, Marist finds a very similar picture to most other polling, putting GOP Sen. Dean Heller up 46-44 over Dem Rep. Shelley Berkley. I'd say that's actually fairly optimistic for Berkley, though, since Marist only puts Obama up two points over Romney, whereas both PPP and Rasmussen (!) had Obama leading by eight.

NY-Sen: Republican Rep. Bob Turner pretends like his upset victory in last year's NY-09 special means he can beat Dem Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand this fall. But really, his ad is purely pitched at winning the GOP primary, seeing as one his priorities is "build the Keystone pipeline," which is not, you know, an issue any normal New Yorker gives a fuck about. The narrator also calls him a "conservative Republican," which is actually a damaging way to brand yourself for a general election in the Empire State.

VA-Sen: Both George Allen and Tim Kaine have made their pre-primary fundraising totals public, and yet again, Kaine continues to whoop his Republican opponent. Kaine took in $1.2 million from April 1 to May 23 and now has $2.5 million on hand, versus $740K for Allen, who has $2.75 mil in the bank.

If you follow these numbers closely, you might wonder why Kaine's cash-on-hand total went down so much from the $4.5 mil he had at the end of March. That's because he recently went ahead and bought $2.5 million worth of television airtime for the fall. (Note this is no mere reservation but an actual purchase.) This has become the wave of the future in swing states, where downballot candidates are expecting the presidential campaigns and their third-party allies to absolutely flood the airwaves ahead of the November elections, so the smaller players are trying to lock in favorables rates early.

Gubernatorial:

MO-Gov (PDF): Public Policy Polling. 5/24-27. Missouri voters. MoE: ±4.0% (1/27-29 results):

Jay Nixon (D-inc): 45 (47)
Dave Spence (R): 34 (27)
Undecided: 21 (26)

Jay Nixon (D-inc): 46 (47)
Bill Randles (R): 32 (29)
Undecided: 22 (24)

Republican primary (MoE: ±4.7%):
Dave Spence (R): 32 (12)
Bill Randles (R): 11 (15)
Fred Sauer (R): 4 (--)
John Weiler (R): 1 (--)
Other: 10 (--)
Undecided: 43 (74)
PPP's gubernatorial portion of this week's Missouri sample is a head-scratcher: it shows Dem incumbent Jay Nixon, who's been dominant in polling so far this cycle, with sharply diminished leads (though not to the point where it looks competitive, merely down to low double-digits instead of high teens). There doesn't seem to be a ready explanation, since the numbers on the presidential and senatorial portions hardly budged from last time, and nothing has happened to upset the balance here. The best explanation may simply be that Republican candidate Dave Spence has upped his name rec among the GOP electorate, and the various embarrassing things that have happened to him (like the news about his home economics degree) are long enough in the past that they're sliding down the memory hole.

Nixon is still one of the most popular governors up for re-election this year at 46/29 (and that's improved from January, at 44/31); Spence isn't well-known or well-liked at 13/17 among all voters, but that's also a bit improved from last time (6/15). Also better news for Spence, the GOP establishment's supposed savior here after Peter Kinder's implosion: At least he's winning the primary over little-known tea partier Bill Randles this time. (David Jarman)

SC-Gov: Saying there were too many "unanswered questions," the South Carolina state House Ethics Committee "voted unanimously Wednesday to reopen its inquiry into whether Gov. Nikki Haley illegally lobbied while a S.C. House member, exploiting her public office for her personal gain and to benefit her employers." Notably, this panel consists of five of Haley's fellow Republicans and just one Democrat. For more details on the inquiry, click the link.

WA-Gov (PDF): Local consulting firm Strategies 360 is out with its second poll of the Washington governor's race, and they find results that are slightly more favorable for GOPer Rob McKenna than we've seen in the last few months, but still a closer race than their previous poll. They see McKenna leading Dem Jay Inslee 43-39, but that 4-point gap is an improvement from Inslee's 7-point deficit (46-39) last September (PDF), which is also consistent with other recent polls' findings that McKenna seems to be losing ground, though to "undecided" rather than to Inslee.

Bonus findings: Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 51-40, Dems lead the GOP on the generic congressional ballot 44-41, and support for gay marriage (which will probably be up for a referendum in November) runs 54-33. There's also leaked word of an internal showing Jay Inslee leading McKenna by 2... but that's literally all we know about it, other than it's an internal by EMC Research for Dem AG candidate Bob Ferguson, rather than for Inslee himself. (David Jarman)

WI-Gov: Clinton Alert! After weeks of lobbying by local Democrats, the Big Dog is coming to campaign with Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett on Friday. There's also another Democratic poll, this one from Barrett's campaign, which has Scott Walker up 50-48. That looks very similar to numbers Barrett put out last week, which were also courtesy Garin-Hart-Yang, just like this survey.

House:

AZ-08: American Crossroads throws down another $33K on mailers in support of Republican Jesse Kelly. To date, they've spent $132K on this special election—all of it on mail. (James L)

CA-08: JOFPAC (that stands for "Jobs Opportunity and Freedom PAC"), an organization supporting GOP San Bernardino County Supervisor Brad Mitzelfelt in this open seat primary, is out with a couple of low-dollar expenditures on his behalf: $4K on pro-Mitzelfelt radio ads and $13K on mailers hitting Republican state Assemblyman Paul Cook. (James L)

CA-24: Republican Abel Maldonado has long had serious tax issues regarding his family's 6,000 acre agri-business, and now a new analysis of court documents by the Los Angeles Times shows that the IRS is alleging Maldonado owes an additional $3.6 million in underpaid taxes, on top of a $470,000 tax bill that was made public in April. The most interesting political angle, though, is this:

Most of the multimillion-dollar dispute stems from complex accounting methods and questions about how to deduct the cost of a cooling facility and crates and boxes used to ship produce. But the IRS also alleges that the business was used to pay for items that may have personally benefited Maldonado and his family.

Those include thousands of dollars in renovations to Maldonado's home and a possible fundraiser for his campaign for state Senate, where he served before becoming lieutenant governor.

It's also worth noting that in Maldonado's introductory TV ad, he specifically highlighted his farm, saying: "Together, my family turned a few acres into a thriving family-run small business, creating jobs and opportunities." Maldonado is looking to unseat Dem Rep. Lois Capps in November.

CA-26: Sigh. If Republican-cum-independent Linda Parks somehow slips through the top-two primary here, it will be seriously disappointing. The Hotline's Scott Bland tells us just how rinky-dink her campaign operation is:

Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks is woefully underfunded compared to her main competitors in California's 26th District primary. An independent, she doesn't have a party apparatus or a natural donor base to lean on. Parks's son made her website. And she's running her congressional campaign out of her house—an initial call to the phone number on Parks's website went to a voicemail message that said, "You've reached the Parks residence, and Linda Parks for Congress."
Total outside spending aimed at stopping Parks and boosting Democrat Julia Brownley has been in the neighborhood of $1 million. As of May 16, Parks' total fundraising was just $183K, plus a personal loan worth $25K. That makes you really wonder what internal polling here looks like, especially because the Dem-allied House Majority PAC just spent another $176K in pro-Brownley TV ads, plus $22K in mailers attacking Parks. Let's hope this money can push Brownley into the top two. (David Nir & James L)

FL-16 (PDF): Politico has an unusually detailed memo explaining GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan's huge new $4 million media buy, running from Aug. 1 through Nov. 5. Of that, $3.65 mil is on broadcast (for some 17,000 gross ratings points) and another $400K is on cable. Ol' Vern only had about $1.5 mil on hand in his campaign account as of March 31, but he's enormously wealthy and probably wrote a personal check to help pay for this.">FL-16 (PDF): Politico has an unusually detailed memo explaining GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan's huge new $4 million media buy, running from Aug. 1 through Nov. 5. Of that, $3.65 mil is on broadcast (for some 17,000 gross ratings points) and another $400K is on cable. Ol' Vern only had about $1.5 mil on hand in his campaign account as of March 31, but he's enormously wealthy and probably wrote a personal check to help pay for this.

HI-02: EMILY's List also just gave their full endorsement to Tulsi Gabbard, running in the Democratic primary in Hawaii's open 2nd CD. (They endorsed her at the same time as Kelda Roys in WI-02, which we mentioned in the previous digest.) Gabbard faces an extremely uphill fight against former Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann.

IA-02: The Humane Society's Legislative Action Fund just spent $20K on direct mail against Democratic state Sen. Joe Seng, who's challenging incumbent Rep. Dave Loebsack in the Democratic primary. The Humane Society is taking aim at Seng, who they say "led the effort to pass Iowa’s notorious “Ag Gag” bill (HF 589/SF 431), which aims to stop whistleblowers from exposing animal abuse, health violations and harassment at industrial factory farms". A copy of the mailer is available here (PDF). (James L)

MI-11: Republican Rep. Thad McCotter's already epic petition debacle is now under criminal investigation by the state attorney general's office, a nice bit of ugliness that is sure to hang over McCotter's head as he tries to nevertheless win the GOP nomination via a write-in campaign. While we're on the topic, one more Republican is saying he won't wage a write-in effort of his own, ex-AG Mike Cox, who hails from the same town as McCotter (Livonia, in Wayne County). But Cox has utterly soured on the incumbent, with the Detroit News reporting that Cox "said his family and the McCotters are close, but now he is for 'anybody but Thad.'"

NJ-09: Just ahead of Tuesday's primary, Dem Rep. Steve Rothman attacks fellow Dem Rep. Bill Pascrell for opposing a lawsuit to force polluters to pay to clean up the Passaic River. (The ad cites this article in the Bergen Record.) Rothman's campaign says the ad is up on New York City broadcast television, which of course is the most expensive media market in all the land. But this race is for all the marbles, since the primary winner is guaranteed to win in November, too.

NM-01: Progressive Kick dropped $27K on this radio ad that attacks Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham's stewardship of nursing homes as head of the New Mexico State Agency on Aging (which we mentioned in the previous digest). Meanwhile, EMILY's List is adding another $10K to their direct mail campaign in support of Lujan Grisham, bringing their total investment in this primary to just over $100,000. (James L)

NV-04: This certainly isn't good news for Republican Danny Tarkanian: A federal judge just ordered him and members of his family to pay a $17 million judgment because they personally guaranteed a bank loan to developer who later filed for bankruptcy. Local analyst Jon Ralston says there's "no way" Tarkanian can afford to pay up, so it's no surprise he's promising to appeal. But if the appeal is unsuccessful and Ralston is right, presumably Tarkanian himself would have to file for bankruptcy. I'm guessing that Tarkanian is just hoping to delay this debacle past the November elections, though it's already an issue on the campaign trail: Dan Schwartz, one of Tark's primary opponents, mentioned the lawsuit (before the judgment was handed down) in a recent ad.

NY-18: Lovely: 2010 GOP Senate nominee Jay Townsend, who also happens to be a spokesman for freshman Rep. Nan Hayworth, has been making an ass of himself on a Facebook group run by local Democrats, but his latest remark ought to get him fired:

"Let's hurl some acid at those female democratic [sic] Senators who won't abide the mandates they want to impose on the private sector."
It's a two-fer: violent language towards women and eliminationist rhetoric about Democrats. Like I said, real lovely.

SC-07: Two new ads in the GOP primary: Chad Prosser promises to make America default on its obligations ("no to raising the debt ceiling"), while Mike Huckabee endorses Andre Bauer in nearly apocalyptic terms ("Our God-given liberty is under attack by unelected judges, Washington politicians and even the president of the United States"). Bauer's buy is for $40K.

TX-16: Now that Beto O'Rourke has defeated Rep. Silvestre Reyes in the Democratic primary, there isn't too much left to say about this race, since O'Rourke is all but assured of victory in November in this 64% Obama district. But I came across an odd detail in the comment section here on Wednesday that I wanted to share: O'Rourke supports a three-term limit for members of Congress. It's not quite clear from the linked page on his website whether he will abide by such a limit himself (the language he's used is very wiggly), but regardless, it's very strange to see a Democrat cottoning to this issue, especially so long after the term limits movement's heyday.

There's also an odd bit of synchronicity to point out: O'Rourke's biggest outside backer was the Campaign for Primary Accountability, whose founders were very active in pushing term limits in the 1990s. (And as you may know, O'Rourke's father-in-law was an early donor to the CPA.) I'm not saying there's any connection here, but O'Rourke's stance is unusual, to say the least.

Other Races:

NY-St. Sen: The unbelievably drawn-out race to replace Democratic former Sen. Carl Kruger (sentenced to seven years in prison on bribery charges) in the 27th Senate District has finally reached its conclusion: Republican attorney David Storobin has beaten Democratic NYC councilman Lew Fidler by a grand total of 16 votes. This turf is mostly contained within the old 9th Congressional District (which Democrats rather infamously lost in a special election last year), so it's not a surprise that the race was so close, given how rapidly the Orthodox and Russian Jews in this area have moved away from the Dems.

In any event, this counts as a pickup for the GOP, putting the chamber at 33-29 in their favor, but it's not exactly a clear-cut win for them. For one, the legislative session concludes at the end of June, so Storobin won't even have much of a chance to vote on legislation. But beyond that, Republicans dismantled this seat in redistricting, instead creating a so-called "super Jewish" district in which nominal Democrat Simcha Felder is favored to win. Felder's party allegiances are very soft: He's socially conservative and has pretty much said he'll side with whoever controls the chamber (and probably the GOP if it's a tie). Storobin's pledged to seek re-election there, but he'll likely have a very tough time of things.

San Diego Mayor: SurveyUSA is out with yet another poll of the Top 2 primary in the San Diego mayoral race, of interest because it features Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Filner looking for a job closer to home as a career capstone, and also an interesting gambit from moderate Republican rising star-turned-indie maverick state Asm. Nathan Fletcher. Republican city councilor Carl DeMaio is still in the lead at 31, with Filner close behind at 28, Fletcher at 23, and county DA Bonnie Dumanis at 11. That's good news for Filner, who several months ago had fallen into 3rd place behind Fletcher and in the previous poll two weeks ago was only starting to climb back (that poll was DeMaio 31, Filner 21, and Fletcher 21). (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

GA/AZ Filings: A couple of states recently saw their filing deadlines go by: Georgia and Arizona. In Georgia (where the deadline was last Friday), Democrats failed to field candidates in three red districts, including one which was held by Dems until just last cycle (GA-08, by Jim Marshall). And in Arizona (where filing closed on Wednesday), the most interesting filings are in AZ-02, the renumbered successor to AZ-08, where the Gabby Giffords special election is being held. If Ron Barber loses the special, the only other Democratic option is state Rep. Matt Heinz (Nomiki Konst bailed). For the GOP, if they decide they've had enough of Jesse Kelly, the main alternative is former Air Force combat pilot Martha McSally, who also ran in the special primary.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Predictions on payroll number? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    daeros

    I say 138,000.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:04:53 AM PDT

  •  Interesting choice to lead with (6+ / 0-)

    Slow news day I guess, if Joe Walsh being boorish is the biggest story.

    Unfortunately, he's not the only one that has that view.  In fact, I've heard some version of that reasoning rather frequently.  It comes from a Conservative stereotype that people only vote Democrat because their feeding from the government titty.  Combined with 90% Democratic voting among African Americans, you get racist screeds.

    29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

    by Marcus Graly on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:22:14 AM PDT

    •  Yep, those words could have come out (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      historys mysteries

      of my father's or my 'bagger brother's mouth.

      Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað

      by milkbone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:42:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  But as people do rise financially in this society (0+ / 0-)

      many do become more conservative in their voting.

      While Dems have done so much more for the poor, they are still will us in droves. Food stamps, etc allow people to survive, but do they actually lift people up?

      I pointed this out the other day: Why are there so many AF younger politicians ( who didn't come up through the civil rights movement) more centrist/corporatist (Booker, Artur Davis, DeVal Patrick). To partially answer my own question it lets them get elected on a statewide basis.

      When was the last Progressive AF elected to a statewide/national office (Obama excluded due to his opponent and the financial situation that made any change in government attractive - hope).

      Progressives will win only when we convince a majority that they, too, are Progressive. And... It’s the Supreme Court, stupid!

      by auapplemac on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:30:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Patrick isn't centrist at all (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Marcus Graly, jncca, stevenaxelrod

        He's in the center of the Democratic Party, but that's clearly to the left of the country.

        Booker is what he is.

        And Davis is a petulant child.

        There are not "so many" younger black politicians who are like Booker or Davis.  Most are like Patrick, with or without any charisma.

        If there are some who are "centrist/corporatist," it's probably because that's how they were raised, that's their personal background.  They probably have upper middle-income, or even wealthy, backgrounds, and went to the best schools, etc.  I'm pretty sure Booker, for example, is an Ivy Leaguer.

        But by and large black politicians are pretty liberal.  I read something about this not long ago from one of my favorite online writers, Ta'Nehisi Coates (who is black and came from a rough neighborhood), who wrote that the black upper classes are still personally tightly connected through family and friends to the poverty and other troubles of their fellow black Americans--they are not physically and/or emotionally segregated from it, as most affluent whites are.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:47:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Even if you exclude Obama (0+ / 0-)

        You still have Deval Patrick in Massachusetts and Carol Moseley Braun in Illinois.  If you go further back, I would consider Edward Brooke a progressive, even though he was a Republican, he was quite liberal.  Douglas Wilder was more moderate.  If you include lower statewide offices (ie. not Senate or Governor), then you have Kamala Harris, who is quite left wing for an AG, which tend to be more law and order types.  

        29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

        by Marcus Graly on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:49:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I am referring to current and up and coming (0+ / 0-)

          AAs who aspire to statewide/national office.

          Patrick got off message the other day about Bain as did Booker.

          Why can't they just say:

          Romney did the job he was hired for and earned money for a few investors, but did not create jobs. The facts show that in some cases actually cut jobs, pensions, etc. in order to make money for his investors.

          He was not a job creator - in fact, when he was Governor, he lost jobs in MA. Business is one thing, governing is another!

          It's really that simple!

          Progressives will win only when we convince a majority that they, too, are Progressive. And... It’s the Supreme Court, stupid!

          by auapplemac on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 08:14:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Payroll number comes in at 69,000 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

    Not good.  Breaks 8 month streak of 6 figure job gains.  Rate jumps to 8.2%.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:32:00 AM PDT

  •  Awful jobs & unemployment (7+ / 0-)

    Only 69K jobs, unemployment up to 8.2%.

    Worst since the fall.

    Really awful.

    And this, unlike most of what Politico thinks matters, really does matter.

    Gotta brace ourselves, the campaign season is gonna be really bumpy.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:32:58 AM PDT

    •  Even worse... (5+ / 0-)

      ...April jobs revised down from initial 115K to 77K.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:34:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yet another summer dip (0+ / 0-)

      And this time little time to recover after. Roll on the 2014 midterm!

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:35:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm thinking polls will significantly change (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      in favor of Romney this month.  Only silver lining is that it is still early enough for a turnaround, although I see little evidence of why that would happen at the moment.

      •  We'll see (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, askew

        It's not good.  But there's a tendency to overreact.  And it does set the bar low, so a 150,000 plus number in the next month or two may have a more positive impact than it would otherwise.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:40:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not granting that until it actually happens (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Paleo, atdnext, Aquarius40, sulthernao

        Voters are weird, it's hard to know how they'll translate this bad news into voting considerations.  They don't really like Romney and don't believe he'll do anything in particular to make it better.  But yeah, they just as easily could think "he won't be any worse, either," and take a flyer on him.  Obama's numbers, especially in trial heats, were surprisingly resilient last year, even when bad not as bad as one might expect.  So I won't be surprised by either Obama dipping or by the polls holding steady, either is plausible.

        State polling the next month-plus is what to watch.  I feel like the state polls up to now are already obsolete as of this morning, except to serve as a baseline to compare against.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:43:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          But you have Democrats sabotaging the president's only avenue to tear Romney down.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:47:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  No we don't (6+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, Paleo, Skaje, atdnext, Aquarius40, sulthernao

            Cory Booker and these other hand-wringers are trivial and inconsequential.  Voters are paying zero attention to them.  Only people who follow politics professionally or as a hobby know what Cory Booker said.

            Don't confuse campaign chatter in the media and on blogs with what most voters, including swing voters, are actually seeing and hearing.  They're seeing and hearing TV ads and newspaper headlines and whatever is on local and broadcast evening news, and online on major general purpose news sites--not Politico or any other political sites or political blogs.  I wouldn't be surprised if whatever is highlighted on the Yahoo news home page for a day gets more page views than Politico over a month or maybe much longer.

            Obama's messaging has no real obstacles at all, just imagined ones by a few people who harbor imaginary storylines.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:55:38 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Bill Clinton is off message too (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, Mark27, auapplemac

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:59:04 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  He's much worse than when he was President (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera, atdnext, Aquarius40

                Bill was gaffe-tastic in the 2008 cycle and sometimes a bad surrogate for his own wife.

                And he's gone off message again a few times this cycle.

                I don't remember Bill doing this so much in his own campaigns.  Maybe he did and my memory fails me a couple decades removed.  I do remember he didn't respond well in '92 to the early hits on his (then merely "alleged") adultery, but that's not nearly the same as a gratuitous unforced error.

                But you know what?...even Bill Clinton's gaffe now doesn't really matter.  It's a one-day story that doesn't penetrate much, and gets drowned out by so much else.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:15:15 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Seems Like He Often Is When "Helping" Obama (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                askew
                •  He hurt Hillary just as often (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  NMLib, happymisanthropy

                  He's not doing this on purpose, he just messes up sometimes.

                  Interviews can be deadly, more for a surrogate than a candidate or campaign team, because by nature you're talking spontaneously, and a surrogate isn't self-conditioned to always watch his/her choice of words.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:54:19 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  The ads that the Rs will use with these people's (0+ / 0-)

              quotes could be devastating. Especially the fact that they are AFs.

              Progressives will win only when we convince a majority that they, too, are Progressive. And... It’s the Supreme Court, stupid!

              by auapplemac on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:38:33 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Yes (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, atdnext, auapplemac

          Most voters, obviously, will vote for their candidate regardless of economic reports.  The "swing" voters could be doing well economically, or not.  So the numbers may not affect their vote as much as thought.

          “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

          by Paleo on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:48:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  DCCyclone, according to poll out yesterday (0+ / 0-)

          Romney's favorables are starting to climb.

          He's just getting real national exposure now. The presentation with his wife and the references to her many health problems along with her sunny personality can humanize him greatly - something he's desperately needed.

          The primary glitches are behind him and many people don't even know about them.

          We'll see....

          Progressives will win only when we convince a majority that they, too, are Progressive. And... It’s the Supreme Court, stupid!

          by auapplemac on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:36:47 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't swallow whole any one poll (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin

            I trust trends established in multiple polls, rarely or never just one poll.

            Romney has recovered somewhat from his lowest low, but he's still underwater in most polling.

            The only "good" favorable he's had was in a very bad outlier in ABC/WaPo.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 08:35:47 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Romney will win if this keeps up (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, auapplemac
  •  ... I give up (0+ / 0-)

    I simply give up. I cannot even.

    22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

    by wwmiv on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:52:32 AM PDT

  •  I'm reading Halperin here (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, askew

    http://thepage.time.com/...

    "Chicago will likely re-think how to proceed."

    Er, like how exactly? Same problem there has always been - Republicans won't pass legislation that will help and you now have Bill Clinton out there undercutting Obama's whole rationale against Romney! I'm an optimistic guy but not any longer.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:55:45 AM PDT

  •  Wow (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, SaoMagnifico, auapplemac

    Abosolutely terrible jobs report.  It's hard to overstate how bad this report was in combiniation with the downward revisions to GDP and Last months Jobs.

    I have little doubt Romney will pull away in most polling this month, and I don't see the economy improving in the next month to halt his gains soon.

    Sigh.

    31/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

    by Socks The Cat on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:58:39 AM PDT

  •  Does anyone know (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    spiderdem, wwmiv, bumiputera, Skaje

    where I can find the May jobs report? I normally go here to find it but for some strange reason no one on DKE is talking about it today.

    Male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Kyoto-06 (Japan) in August

    by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:07:07 AM PDT

  •  By fall minds are made up on the economy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv

    In 1992 the economy was growing pretty fast by election day but Bush was doomed because people still thought we were in a recession.
    Need to hope Romney is so offensive to most people that Obama gets re-elected by default.

  •  Poll in Mass Senate race to come out tomorrow (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Amber6541

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:21:24 AM PDT

  •  Well shit (8+ / 0-)

    I guess the election is already over then, the way you all are talking.

    •  Yes, the election has been moved to June 5 (10+ / 0-)

      In fact, what's the point of having the election?  Let's just crown Romney now.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:28:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, there is legitimate concern here (4+ / 0-)

        but the mood swings on this site are pretty amazing to watch. Sometimes people are waaaaay to confident about Obama winning, and then there are days like this, when it is the opposite.

        •  Maybe because I'm somewhat older than (12+ / 0-)

          most of the people on here, and have seen more campaigns, I don't get caught up in the swings as much.  Every campaign has its ebb and flow.  And there's a long way to go.

          “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

          by Paleo on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:55:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Wish I could rec Paleo for this 100 times (6+ / 0-)

            It helps to have been through this crap before.

            Setting aside the economy, there are a lot of similiarities between the Clinton years and the Obama years.

            Crazy contradictory conspiracy theories?  Obama is a secret Muslim with a radical black supremacist Christian minister!  Similarly, Clinton's wife was a lesbian who had an affair with Vince Foster.  Oh, and Foster didn't commit suicide, Bill Clinton murdered him.  And Bill murdered Ron Brown, too.  And when the Oklahoma City bombing happened, even after McVeigh was captured, wingnut talk radio was filled with callers insisting the government did it, it was an inside job, and McVeigh was framed.  If anything, the conspiracy theories now against Obama are less extreme than the ones against Clinton were.

            Even on policy, much of what Obama has done was Clinton's failed or unfinished business.  Clinton wanted a measley $16 billion stimulus for the recession that elected him, and a Congress controlled by his party shot him down completely--not one cent.  Obama got over $800 billion.  Clinton worked health care for much of his first 2 years, and again a Congress of his own party shot him down and gave nothing, nada.  Obama got health care reform, again after a very long fight that consumed a good part of his first 2 years.  Clinton wanted to lift the ban on gays in the military and settled for DADT, Obama actually finished the job.  Also like Clinton, much of Obama's very beginning was satisfying the business of pent up Democratic demand, like a bill to overturn a civil rights Supreme Court decision on racial discrimination in Clinton's case, and similarly Lily Ledbetter for Obama.

            The current GOP House is crazier and more extreme than Newt's first couple years, but Newt's first couple years were plenty crazy and extreme enough.  One frosh Congressman from South Carolina wanted to prohibit the Labor Department from investigating a plant after a workplace death.  Yes, really.  A fellow Republican Congressman who had been around for awhile explained in an interview how he had to talk his new colleague down from that bill.  A couple other Congressmen introduced bills to abolish the Labor Department.  I remember that well, and in fact I've been surprised these past couple years no one has targeted Labor again...Rick Perry even when he remembered his targeted agencies, left us spared.  Oh, and a House committee held a hearing specifically to let crazy right-wing armed private militia members speak in their defense...it was a hearing to justify the militias!  Their favorite was a token black man who was a member of a militia in Ohio......don't ever think Republicans don't practice affirmative action, when they see an opportunity to use a person of color as a shield.

            There are differences now, as I said this GOP House really is crazier and more extreme, and Obama being black has added conservatives' racism as a motive.  But a lot more is the same than anyone realizes.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 08:04:06 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Quibbling (0+ / 0-)

              DADT was the compromise that Clinton wanted. The more liberal factions of the party wanted to allow gays to serve openly.

              22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

              by wwmiv on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 08:11:36 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  No, he didn't want it (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin, HoosierD42, jncca, stevenaxelrod

                He announced he was lifting the ban on gays, period.

                Then Congress went apeshit.  All the conservaDems were livid.  Ike Skelton who just lost in 2010 was at the forefront of putting a stop to lifting the ban.

                Public polling was clearly against lifting the ban.  Younger folks here can't realize how much more homophobic society was, it was a big deal that Clinton was doing it.

                Clinton could've held his ground, and my view was once he opened that can of worms, the politically smartest thing to do was to stick with it--he otherwise would end up pissing off all sides, which he did.  Congress was certain to pass a bill through both chambers banning gays, but not with veto-proof majorities, so that was Clinton's path.

                But he then would've been going against both a Congress fully controlled by his own party and also the American people.  But as I said, once he opened the can of worms, he already pissed off everyone to begin with.  But he didn't want to finish the job, believing more peril lay ahead.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 08:32:00 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  I'm only 22 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            uclabruin18

            but the ebb and flow of 2008 was enough by itself to make me pretty zen...

            Male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Kyoto-06 (Japan) in August

            by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 10:33:18 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  On intrade, Obama's re-elect number dropped (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext

    3%, but is now bouncing back a bit.

    FWIW

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:30:07 AM PDT

  •  New NBC battleground map (5+ / 0-)

    It's not online yet, they're late getting the First Thoughts blog post up that usually includes it.

    But Chuck Todd released it on Daily Rundown, with three changes:  Pennsylvania from tossup to lean Dem, Iowa  from lean R to tossup, and Wisconsin from lean D to tossup.

    On Pennsylvania, Todd said the Romney campaign is doing nothing there; Todd noted that Pennsylvania is a big and tough state, a Republican who wants to have a chance to win it has to be ramping up there now, and Romney isn't doing that at all.

    On Wisconsin, I know Todd had said back when PPP and Marquette showed the Prez race even that internal trackers said the same.  But he hasn't repeated anything indicating what private polling says now, and of course we've had three straight polls including Marquette's own latest effort showing voters separating the races again, and giving Obama a healthy lead.  St. Norbert said O+5, Reason-Rupe O+10, and Marquette Law O+8 and 52-43 job approval.  These polls had Walker up by the same kinds of healthy margins as the preceding couple polls that had Obama struggling more, so you can't blame the sampling.  This is all to say that I suspect Todd's view on Wisconsin is already out of date, so I'm not worried about it.  I bet he waits for post-recall GOP/Dem campaign activity in the Prez race, and post-recall polling, and ends up moving it back.  I'm guessing Romney himself will never play in Wisconsin, but at least one of the big wingnut superpacs airs attack ads against Obama there.

    All in all, this latest Todd map puts Obama at a record-high 237 with Pennsylvania added and Wisconsin removed, and knocks down Romney even further since it takes away Iowa from him.  Whenever Wisconsin is added back, that puts us at 247.

    Of course, as I said in another comment this morning, all state polling might be obsolete already as of this morning's jobs/unemployment reports, except to serve as baselines to compare against for the polling over the next month-plus.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:32:43 AM PDT

    •  Highlight This (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone
      all state polling might be obsolete already as of this morning's jobs/unemployment reports, except to serve as baselines to compare against for the polling over the next month-plus.

      22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

      by wwmiv on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:35:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Now he moves Iowa and Wisconsin to tossup? (0+ / 0-)

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:38:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think he moved Wisconsin awhile ago (0+ / 0-)

        Todd indicated a few weeks ago he was moving Wisconsin based on polling-evidenced recall drag on Obama.  This was when the scary PPP and Marquette Law polls came out (although Todd relied only on Marquette Law), and Todd said campaigns were saying internal numbers showed the same.  So the Wisconsin move isn't "new," rather it's "new" only as compared to the previous full map released in April.

        I bet he moved Iowa based on the new NBC/Marist poll.  Of course, the trial heat is only barely better, and insignificantly so, than the DSM Register Iowa Poll by Selzer in February that Todd partly relied on to move Iowa to lean R.  But one big difference that matters:  Marist has job approval at a (barely) positive 46-45, that Selzer poll had Obama's job approval underwater by some margin.  That's a real difference.

        I seriously question Todd's reliance on just a few polls for his ratings.  But then I know he and his team always say they rely on more than just public polls, they consider also private polling and the "take" of insiders who are supposed to know what's going on in the states.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:03:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  well, if there is a silver lining that I can find (9+ / 0-)

    it's that gas prices should be down quite a bit this summer. Oil is off another $3 right now, around  $82.

    There is a relationship between higher oil price and the weaker economic growth. This is what happened last year, when oil spiked, and the economy slowed, and many thought there would be a recession late in the year. Oil prices dropped though, because of Europe and the debt ceiling mess, and we saw that surprise growth in the last six months of the year. Not saying it will happen again, but, we'll see.

    •  On the flip side (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy

      There are also a few other relationships that we have to consider here.

      First, that rentier middle eastern economies perform better with higher gas prices.

      Second, that there has been both a direct and indirect causal relationship between poor economic performances of middle eastern economies and development of extreme terroristic ideologies and/or revolutionary tendencies.

      The extrapolation here being that if oil prices go down the ruling bargains between remaining technocratic regimes and their citizenries have to be implicitly renegotiated to the detriment of citizen welfare because of lower rent levels leading to further unrest in the region...

      Take this how you will.

      22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

      by wwmiv on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:40:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Unfortunately Gas Prices Can Only Hurt..... (0+ / 0-)

      .....if gas prices fell to 75 cents a gallon by November, it wouldn't help Obama if the economy was stalled.

      •  Feedback loop (0+ / 0-)

        It means consumers have more cash in their pockets, which they can then spend on other things, supporting other parts of the economy, which then generates growth and jobs -- until gas prices start going up again on strong growth numbers, which in turn...

        This isn't a short-term dynamic though, so it takes a while for each piece to play out.

    •  Yep. At least the economy is still growing... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      And at this point, I'm thinking any Q2 report showing growth north of 1% will be seen as good news. And hopefully if lower gas prices encourage people to travel more this summer, then that will help pump up job creation numbers in big tourist markets (some of which happen to be key swing states, like NV, CO, FL, & NC). Let's just hope gas prices keep sliding.

  •  That's a stupid meme IMO. (8+ / 0-)

    Of course we want to be able to depend on our government to be there when we need it.

    We want FEMA to be effective when there's a disaster.
    We rely on the FDA to make sure our food is safe.
    We need the EPA to ensure our water is drinkable and our air breathable.
    We ask that our Commander-in-Chief actually go after the leader of a group that attacked us and to prevent future attacks.
    We hope that in case our lives/livelihoods fall apart, our government will be there with a safety net to help us get back on our feet.

    But I guess what the silly Republicans are saying is that by electing them we will get a government we can't depend on. Perhaps it's more of a confession than a meme.

    •  "...more of a confession than a meme." (0+ / 0-)
      The Democratic Party promises groups of people everything.
      Bingo! (To the subject line, not the blockquote.)

      I agree, a Republican't accusation of Democratic wrongdoing is best understood as a confession. Rs display little awareness of the concept of projection.

      Who promises who what?  Bush's TARP bailed out Wall Street billionaires (and the $700 billion everyone was talking about turned out to be only about 10% of the actual total).

      You'd think the moneyed elite and their paid-for minions (e.g. Rep. Walsh) wouldn't complain so loud w/ their mouths full of taxpayer cash.

      Dems promise their interest groups pennies; Republican'ts deliver their interest groups trillions!

      "Push the button, Max!" Jack Lemmon as Professor Fate, The Great Race

      by bartcopfan on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:29:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Not a coincidence that this happened (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext

    immediately after the Greek elections on May 6th.

    Greece holds elections, results in a hung parliament, people start talking about Greece exiting the euro, and Europe's economic crisis starts making the newspaper headlines again.

    That month, jobs growth begins to plummet in the United States.

    Direct relationship.

    http://mypolitikal.com/

    by Inoljt on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:46:52 AM PDT

    •  It actually "plummeted" in April (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, Odysseus, itskevin, sapelcovits

      according to today's revised figures.  Before the Greek election.  Gain in May was only 8000 less than in April.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:51:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's oil prices more than Greece (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        atdnext

        bonddad, who used to post here, talks about something called the oil choke collar at his blog, where when oil price gets to a certain price, it has a constricting effect on the economy.

        This is what happened last year, and I think to a certain extent in 2008, when oil prices were at record levels.

  •  in a fact-based world... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    "We have so many people now scared of government. So many people are panicked. The Republican Party threatens groups of people with everything. They want the Hispanics scared. They want the Hispanics to be scared of government, just like they got African Americans scared of government. That’s their game. Joe Walsh would be out of work if they weren’t afraid of government. There’d be no work for him."

    When life gives you lemons, don't elect them to Congress.

    by papa monzano on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:48:33 AM PDT

  •  Hey Joe... shut your pie hole. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Icicle68, happymisanthropy

    "So Joe, why is it that Republicans want to make Corporations dependent on Government handouts?"

    The Republicans are always quick to complain about someone (ie. a citizen) getting a handout (ie. support) from a government program. But they don't remember all those times they vote to give their citizens (ie. corporations) handouts (ie. tax breaks, subsidies, and industry deregulation).

    So which is it, Joe? Do we cut off Exxon off the Government teat and tell Wall Street they have to actually "follow" commonsense financial regulations? Or do we simply keep doing the same old, same old rhetoric between the parties?

    Because if you are willing to cut off Corporate Lobbyists from Congress as a whole then I might actually listen to your complaints about how welfare works in this country.

    But until that time, Joe... "Shut your pie hole"

    "I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

    by Wynter on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:48:44 AM PDT

  •  This belief that African Americans are dependent (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, Americantrueandblue

    on the government leaves me speechless.  It's simply not true and those who believe such things tend to have a dim view on minorities overall.  You would have to in order to believe such a baseless, prejudicial lie.

  •  WA 1 SUSA: Koster leading (0+ / 0-)
    In a survey of 456 likely primary voters in the 1st District, 46 percent said they would vote for Koster, according to the poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Burner was a distant second with 19 percent. All the other candidates were in single digits including Democrat Laura Rudeman – 6 percent; Democrat Suzan DelBene – 4 percent; Democrat Steve Hobbs – 4 percent; Larry Ishmael – 4 percent and Democrat Darshan Rauniyar – 1 percent.  Sixteen percent were undecided.

    When talking about the general election, 661 registered voters were asked whether they would vote for Koster or Burner today. Koster leads Burner 48 percent to 39 percent. Koster also leads by double digits in head-to-head match ups against DelBene, Rudeman, Runiyar and Hobbs.

    The margin is wider in the race for Governor. 52 percent of registered 1st District voters said they would choose McKenna while 38 percent would choose Inslee.

    http://www.king5.com/...

    Inslee trailing by that margin in his own district?

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:02:14 AM PDT

  •  Isn't Joe Walsh dependent on government? (4+ / 0-)

    He won't have to worry about collecting government money after November 3rd, unless he goes on unemployment.

    Ann Richards on how to be a good Republican: You have to be against all government programs, but expect Social Security checks on time.

    by shoeless on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:03:10 AM PDT

  •  It's not fair (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin

    but the President generally gets the credit, or the blame, for the economy.  I, personally, think that the influence of a President over the economy is minimal.  But if you tag President Bush for what happened in 2008, you have to tag President Obama for what's happening in 2012.  The voters are simply not going to buy that the economy is STILL President Bush's fault, I think.  

    Yes, he inherited a mess.  People understand that.  Unfortunately for the President, the simple question Republicans will ask voters is, did the President fix things like he said he would?

    I suspect that you are going to see a LOT of that clip where the President says, "If I don't have things done in three years, there's going to be a one-term proposition."  Politically, the President set this up himself by essentially taking responsibility for the economy.  

    I think that the best thing the President can do is, rather than focusing on the negatives about Mitt Romney, instead to lay out, specifically, his plan for the economy for the next few years -- i.e., tell us what he actually proposes for the next two years if he is re-elected.  That would help him in two ways.  First, it would answer the voters' question, what are you going to do differently about the economy if we give you another term?  Second, if he is re-elected, politically, that gives him the argument that the people put him in office to do what he said he would do during the campaign.  

    •  OOPs -- put this reply in the wrong diary! n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext
    •  I'm sure Obama will be doing that... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      But I'm also sure that OFA will NOT be letting Romney get away with shaking the Etch-A-Sketch to transform himself into "Mr. Economy Fix-it Guy!" I said this in 2010, and I'll say it again now. There's a reason why OFA invested so heavily in reelecting Harry Reid & Michael Bennet. In many ways, those were test runs for this campaign. In fact, I suspect the "back-up plan" is what we're now starting to see as OFA & Dem Super PACs roll out the Romney attacks.

      •  Yeah, it looks like the only avenue to reelection (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        auapplemac

        This just kind of feels like the first day of the rest of the campaign. It's hard to see how President Obama gets reelected with jobs reports like this one coming out, and it's hard to see how consumer confidence rebounds enough for a turnaround by October.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:15:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Remember today's date. It's June 1. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          happymisanthropy

          At this point in 2008, McCain was almost even money against Obama. Now, Romney looks like almost even money against Obama. Keep that in mind.

          Summer is only beginning. Much can still change. And since it looks like a significant portion of the country already felt like the economy was meh before today's jobs numbers came out, it may not affect the state of the race too much.

          •  It really is more about how people feel (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            atdnext, happymisanthropy

            I don't think anyone actually decides how to feel about the economy just based on numbers, most people struggling in the economy don't need a number to tell them that it's very slow recovery and they are already feeling bad about it. It works the same way when the number falls, people don't feel better just from seeing the number, if they aren't feeling the recovery on their own economic situation, it doesn't change their attitude.

            26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

            by DrPhillips on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:38:58 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The Numbers Shape the Conversation (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              VClib

              Bad and worsening or good and improving employment, GDP and debt numbers shape what is discussed by those running for office, news, blogs, comedy, ads, etc..

              Those discussions then impact how voters feel, who goes out to vote and what voters do.

              The most important way to protect the environment is not to have more than one child.

              by nextstep on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 09:02:27 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  I woke up, quite uncharacteristically... (8+ / 0-)

    At 6:30 a.m. PT.

    Now I know why.

    I'm hoping I'm still asleep and I'm just having a bad dream. But I don't think I am.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:10:51 AM PDT

  •  and Joe Walsh knows about Dems and Minorities... (0+ / 0-)

    because.....??????

    "Orwell was an optimist"

    by KnotIookin on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:27:53 AM PDT

  •  That Government Dependancy Thing (2+ / 0-)

    obviously does NOT apply to the Pentagon.

    What about the Billions in TAX Breaks for the Oil Companies ?

    No Way in Hell !!!

    How About General Electric making Billions in Profits and
    Paying Absolutely Nothing in Taxes ?

    That's Just a Rumor started by the Commie Liberals !!!

    And So It Goes. Idiots in the Media turn Idiots like
    Joe Walsh into Nobel Prize Candidates.

    On Giving Advice: Smart People Don't Need It and Stupid People Don't Listen

    by Brian76239 on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:36:58 AM PDT

  •  Is Walsh promising to rescind oil subsidies? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    happymisanthropy

    Is he offering to reform lobbying?

    "A cynical, mercenary, demagogic press will produce in time a people as base as itself." - Joseph Pulitzer

    by CFAmick on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:45:45 AM PDT

  •  Joe Walsh, stop digging... (0+ / 0-)

    ...you're already in a giant hole.

    I'm not a resident of IL-8, but I am asking IL-8 residents to vote for Tammy Duckworth on November 6, because Joe Walsh enjoys making an ass of himself.

  •  Joe Walsh (0+ / 0-)

    While I am no fan of Jesse jackson, he is twice the man that Walsh will ever be.

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