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The Sunshine State is looking blue ... for now

Public Policy Polling (PDF). 5/31-6/3. Florida voters. MoE ±3.9% (4/12-15 in parentheses):

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 49 (47)
Connie Mack IV (R): 36 (37)
Undecided: 15 (17)

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 48 (48)
George LeMieux (R): 35 (34)
Undecided: 17 (18)

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (47)
Mike McCalister (R): 33 (35)
Undecided: 20 (19)

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (—)
Dave Weldon (R): 31 (—)
Undecided: 22 (—)

On the heels of their presidential polling earlier in the week showing the president sitting on a four-point lead over Mitt Romney in the pivotal state of Florida, this morning PPP released their Senate numbers in the Sunshine State, as well.

The verdict? Continuing good news for Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson, who continues to lap the field when paired with a variety of Republican contenders. He pulls out by an incrementally wider margin than he enjoyed in April, and also posts a 16-point lead over former Rep. Dave Weldon, who made a late bid into the race when Florida Republicans grew steadily concerned that frontrunner Connie Mack IV was not quite the candidate they hoped he would be.

Weldon's status as a player, at least at this early date in his campaign, might have been overblown. He loses in the general election trial heats by a wider margin than anyone, and he is way off the pace in the Republican primary polling conducted by PPP, as well:

FL-SEN—R. PPP. 5/31-6/3. Florida Republican voters. MoE ±4.6%.

Connie Mack IV: 34
George LeMieux: 13
Mike McCallister: 10
Dave Weldon: 6
"Someone Else": 9
Undecided: 28
Weldon's piss-poor showing demonstrates rather clearly that, in a state with more than two dozen House members, merely being a "former member of Congress" doesn't earn you a heck of a lot of political capital. Eighty-one percent of Floridians have no opinion of the former veteran Space Coast representative, and those who do, lean negative (8/12).

At the moment, Weldon runs behind "someone else" in the primary balloting. Of course, with only a small surge, "someone else" could be in second place in this thing, given how totally undefined the field is behind Mack, who remains an unimpressive frontrunner with weak favorabilities of his own (19/27).

Nelson shouldn't break out champagne yet, however. His job approval remains awfully middling (39/31), and not a single one of his potential GOP rivals is established enough to have even 50 percent of the electorate able to offer an opinion of them. There are still miles to go in this one, although you'd rather be Nelson than the Republicans at this point.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 11:25 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

    by Steve Singiser on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 11:25:05 AM PDT

  •  I guess that's one more vote for Reid (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    with regards to  majority status and leadership.

  •  Nice news. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I'm from the Elizabeth Warren and Darcy Burner Wing of the Democratic Party!

    by TomP on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 11:30:09 AM PDT

  •  Jeb Bush endorsed Mack (0+ / 0-)

    "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

    by MartyM on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 11:32:34 AM PDT

  •  Wow-Za ..Can it Be? (0+ / 0-)

      Will it Hold?   (praying in my own agnostic  way, yes)

  •  The fact that he has a + approval rating (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gorette, Matt Z

    is phenomenal. For so many reasons.

    "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

    by bryduck on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 11:33:36 AM PDT

  •  He's my senator and I'm glad he now has (0+ / 0-)

    the advantage but I would not count on it to be that much in his favor come election day, not here in this conservative state. I wish it were someone more progressive but he's not bad.

    "extreme concentration of income is incompatible with real democracy.... the truth is that the whole nature of our society is at stake." Paul Krugman

    by Gorette on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 11:45:05 AM PDT

  •  Are they polling likely or... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    unlikely voters to be purged (by the Kochs) from the rolls?  Makes a difference.  

    "Politics isn't about big money or power games; it's about the improvement of people's lives" - Paul Wellstone

    by mademedia on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 11:45:16 AM PDT

  •  Obviously there's polling fraud going on here (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ehstronghold, Matt Z

    We need to purge the polling rolls from undocumented or illegal pollsters.


    "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

    by kovie on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 11:46:31 AM PDT

  •  PPP will be tested this year (0+ / 0-)

    Every other poll of this race shows a dead heat. Also Epic comes out with a Mi poll showing Romney   up 1 after PPP showed Obama with a double digit lead.
    I hope PPP is right.

    •  Um, no, even Rassmussen has Nelson +11 (4+ / 0-)

      Only Quinnipac shows a tossup... after showing Nelson +8 their previous poll.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 12:30:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  In FL, the President is ahead. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, Matt Z

      In MI, EPIC is one of the worst pollsters around.  There isn't anyone in the Romney camp who believes that the GOP can win Michigan.  PPP did get the WI recall right.  Just on the lower end of the margin.  They pretty much nailed Barrett's number and they had Walker at 50%.

      Alternative rock with something to say:

      by khyber900 on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 01:27:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  People questioning PPP all of sudden (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, bumiputera, Matt Z

      Are very lazy. Seriously guys, do some proper research.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 01:37:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Virtually nobody is perfect when it comes to (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, bumiputera, Matt Z

      polling, but PPP seems better than most.

      EPIC might not be the worst pollster ever, but there's no indication it's any good.

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball" do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 03:04:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The "IV"? Hasn't this family had enough? n/t (0+ / 0-)

    "Daddy, every time a bell rings, a Libertaria­n picks up his Pan Am tickets for the Libertaria­n Paradise of East Somalia!"

    by unclebucky on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 12:33:36 PM PDT

  •  Unfortunately, PPP is no longer credible (0+ / 0-)

    because the polling outfit had some weak results from Wisconsin recently. Let us all bow before our new polling overlords, the Great and Wonderful Rasmussen.

    Seriously now, I just don't see how Nelson loses, sort of some big scandal or some epic implosion on the part of Democrats nationwide. Even in a shitty cycle, Obama's bound to get at least 45 percent, and I think it's safe to say that if Obama wins, which is looking possible if not likely, Nelson will win easily.

    Which is, for so many reasons, awesome. I don't think they will stop putting resources into the state until very late, which will of course drain them from other states. It'll force us to spend money there, too, but given the advantages we have, it's a fair trade off.

    The reason for his approval rating is, of course, reluctance on the part of Democrats to give him the thumbs up. Fortunately for us, that doesn't appear likely to carry over to the voting booth, as he gets the majority of his party's support here. In fact, I think you could argue that these results understate matters somewhat, as he's probably going to climb even higher, probably to at least 90 percent of Democrats.

    Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball" do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

    by bjssp on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 12:48:47 PM PDT

  •  it really helps that some theoretically close (0+ / 0-)

    contests like Florida and Pennsylvania seem all but that, allowing more attention and resources on places like Virrginia, Montana, and Missouri (and in a way of draining GOP attention far beyond what they had thought- Massachusetts)).

  •  He voted yes on the NDAA (0+ / 0-)

    I will be voting in a independent or socialist or green party person. I will not vote for anyone who voted yes on the NDAA.

    "Obama, the change that leads to indefinite detention and the abrogation of the Constitution! Yes He Can!"

    by hangingchad on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 02:01:59 PM PDT

    •  Voting 3rd party is as good as not voting at all. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, Matt Z

      You saw what happened when FL elected Rick Scott.  The lesson is that if you're inclined to vote Democratic, DO SO.

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 04:40:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm hoping you're a troll (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, Matt Z

      because if you're fucking named after something from the 2000 election, live in Florida, and are still planning on voting third party...I really don't know what planet you live on.

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at

      by jncca on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 05:16:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  also (0+ / 0-)

      you're not allowed to support non Democrats on DKos.

      I won't HR you because I'm not 100% sure on the rules, but I think this comment is HR-able.

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at

      by jncca on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 05:16:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I am not advocating at all. just stating my (0+ / 0-)

        current disposition. It could change bu tI am so sad about the party and the state of its leaders and members   I get upset.. and feel betrayed.

        "Obama, the change that leads to indefinite detention and the abrogation of the Constitution! Yes He Can!"

        by hangingchad on Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 05:22:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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