Skip to main content

newspaper headline collage

Visual source: Newseum

Michael P. McDonald:

Does Scott Walker's victory in the Wisconsin recall election mean that Wisconsin is now in play in the November presidential election?

Short answer is no, for two reasons.

The first reason is that the exit polls show that if Obama was on the ballot, he would have won by a comfortable 51 percent to 44 percent margin.

What the exit polls do reveal for the Romney campaign is that 18 percent of Obama supporters voted for Walker. These persons represent potential persuadable voters that the Romney campaign will target if they decide to invest heavily in Wisconsin. What we do not know from the exit polls is why these voters would have split their vote between Obama and Walker. That mystery would have to be unraveled by additional polling to see if there is an opportunity to change these folks' votes. It very well could be that these voters' attitudes cannot be changed if, for example, they simply dislike recall elections. Still, even as Romney targets these voters, so too will Obama, so it will not be easy to changes these voters' support for Obama.

The second reason is that the recall electorate is different than what will likely be the November general election.

NB: No APR tomorrow (a Netroots Nation travel day).

Alan Abramowitz:

The 2012 recall electorate was noticeably older, whiter, more conservative and more Republican than the 2008 electorate. Voters age 65 and older outnumbered those under the age of 30 by 18 percent to 16 percent on Tuesday. In contrast, four years ago, 18- to 29-year-old voters outnumbered those 65 and older by 22 percent to 14 percent. Most significantly, on Tuesday Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 35 percent to 34 percent according to the exit poll. Four years ago, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 percent to 33 percent.

Despite Scott Walker's fairly easy win on Tuesday, Democrats apparently were able to retake control of the state senate by defeating one GOP senator. And Democrats can take heart from one result from the exit poll. Even with a Republican-leaning electorate, Barack Obama led Mitt Romney by 51 percent to 44 percent when exit poll respondents were asked how they would vote in the presidential election. These results suggest that, Obama should be considered a solid favorite to carry the state again, especially if Democrats turn out in larger numbers in November.

Paul Krugman:
Why was government spending much stronger under Reagan than in the current slump? “Weaponized Keynesianism” — Reagan’s big military buildup — played some role. But the big difference was real per capita spending at the state and local level, which continued to rise under Reagan but has fallen significantly this time around.
Here is today's chapter of "What The Public Gets", brought to you through polling:

Gallup:

Despite extensive news coverage of what was widely portrayed as a disappointing government jobs report last Friday, Americans are about as likely to describe it as "mixed" (40%) as to say it is "negative" (42%), with a small minority characterizing it as "positive" (9%). But Americans who view the report as negative are more likely to say it was somewhat negative rather than very negative.
LA Times:
The Obama campaign’s jabs at Mitt Romney’s record at Bain Capital, which have been widely panned across the Northeast, could work quite well in Ohio, judging by the latest survey from the bipartisan Purple Poll.

Across the 12 battleground states the monthly poll surveys, 47% of likely voters said they agreed with the statement that private equity firms “care only about profits and short-term gains for investors. When they come in, workers get laid off, benefits disappear and pensions are cut. Investors walk off with big returns, and working folks get stuck holding the bag.”

Like we said, the public gets it even if the media doesn't. More conversation on this topic here.

NY Times:

Just 44 percent of Americans approve of the job the Supreme Court is doing and three-quarters say the justices’ decisions are sometimes influenced by their personal or political views, according to a new poll conducted by The New York Times and CBS News.
CNN:
CNN Poll: George W. Bush only living ex-president under 50%
----

If you are in Providence tomorrow, come join us!

polling panel info at NN 12

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  You mean if he were running for Governor of WI? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HudsonValleyMark, Larsstephens
    The first reason is that the exit polls show that if Obama was on the ballot, he would have won by a comfortable 51 percent to 44 percent margin.
    Does he even want that job?
    •  who would? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      especially now.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 04:58:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That Lt. Governor seems ambitious. n/t (0+ / 0-)

        "The disturbing footage depicts piglets being drop kicked and swung by their hind legs. Sows are seen being kicked and shoved as they resist leaving their piglets."

        by Bush Bites on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:02:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I dunno, that just seems like an extraordinarily (0+ / 0-)

        stupid polling question to me . . . .

        •  well, it's the standard one (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Roadbed Guy

          I thought you were kidding, but now I'm not sure, so just in case....

          If the presidential election were today, for whom would you vote?
          (That's copied and pasted from the NYTimes website. I can't verify that it is verbatim, but I would expect it to be.)

          If it's stupid to ask people in June whom they would vote for, it's standard-issue stupid. ;)

          •  But there was no presidential election (0+ / 0-)

            that day, it was a recall election - and the question, as quoted in the diary, was about what would happen if Obama were on the recall election ballot, insinuating that he was running for governor of Wisconsin (or perhaps even one of the down-ballot positions).

            Maybe it was just an extraordinarily poorly written quote.

            •  I think that's too harsh toward Mike McDonald (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Roadbed Guy

              A gentleman and a scholar.

              The first reason is that the exit polls show that if Obama was on the ballot, he would have won by a comfortable 51 percent to 44 percent margin.
              I concede that that is ambiguous, but I wouldn't say it is "extraordinarily poorly written." Since the exit poll only taps people who voted in the recall, tying the result to the recall ballot makes some sense. It would have been less ambiguous to write, "...if the presidential election was on the ballot, Obama would have won...." But Mike probably figured that everyone knows what Obama is running for, so it didn't seem all that ambiguous.

              Of course, that less ambiguous statement doesn't actually make sense either: If the presidential election actually had been on the ballot, the electorate would have been a lot different. So maybe Mike should have written, "the exit polls show that if the recall electorate had been voting in the presidential election that day, they would have favored Obama...." Dunno, did I get that right yet?

              The truth is that it's really hard to write unambiguously true statements about poll results without seeming to split hairs.

              •  Well, OK, but having said that, I still remain (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Cream City

                completely baffled why asking/polling if Obama had been on the ballot for a state recall election that he refused to even get involved with in any shape or form was a good idea.

                If the question, as you seem to insinuate, was something like "if the presidential election were held today, and Obama's oponent was Romney, who would you vote for?" that seems like a reasonable question.

                But again, a totally different question than the quote referred to.

                I guess this illustrates the truism that outcomes of polls can be massively manipulated by the exact wording of the questions.

                •  I did my best to quote the question verbatim (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DemFromCT, Roadbed Guy

                  No seeming insinuation about it. :)

                  Assuming that that actually was the question (and that the answers were something like "Barack Obama," "Mitt Romney," "someone else," and "would not vote"), I agree that it's a reasonable question. I also think that Mike McDonald's paraphrase is pretty reasonable and certainly not intended as a massive manipulation.

                  •  I suppose a polling insider would get that (0+ / 0-)

                    and I realize this site - from the top down - is big on polling so I guess most readers would be savvy to that.

                    Myself, I'm a bit cynical about polling (heck, either the race is so clear cut that even * I * could predict the winner, or when it's actually a close race, the polling seems to be wrong as often as it is correct) so I typically think  "why bother?" and skip over to something else.

                    •  sorry that I missed this reply (0+ / 0-)

                      Honestly, I think it's probably better to have the "hey, whatever" attitude than to obsess about the details. I think the deets can be very interesting, but sometimes people lose all perspective.

                      That said, I think that polling is very useful for figuring out which races are "so clear cut." It's even substantially better than coin-flipping for the close races, especially if you can compare several polls. But a lot can go wrong that isn't reflected in the nominal "margin of error."

                      I agree that McDonald was writing for people who would probably know what he meant, and not thinking so much about people who wouldn't. Communication is hard.

    •  A lot of Obama voters (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      sat out the special election. So the margin of victory will likely be higher this November.

      Romney - 2012 - He's A Trooper!

      by kitebro on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 06:54:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, as did Obama himself (0+ / 0-)

        Maybe his voters will come back later, maybe not.   Guess if it depends whether or not they're just a tad more motivated than he is.

      •  He hopes so. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Roadbed Guy

        But I dunno.  How do we know that?

        We do know that more than 50,000 more voters in the city of Milwaukee -- almost all in wards that are prime territory for Democrats -- voted this week than did so in the 2010 gubernatorial election.

        If they can be brought back again this fall, that's good for Obama, you bet.  So all that he and his DNC have to do is get more than a hundred thousand volunteers to spend a year and a half on intensive efforts on the ground here . . .

        Or spend $50 million or so, the latest estimate for the other side's expenditures, to buy Wisconsin as they did.

        "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

        by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 07:06:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Look at the demographics (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Larsstephens

          of special elections. Use the Google. There are numerous studies to choose from.

          Romney - 2012 - He's A Trooper!

          by kitebro on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 07:28:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  speaking of buying WI (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Vicky, llywrch, Roadbed Guy, Larsstephens

          contrary view from the political scientists:

          What this election gave us is a rare and precious thing: a gubernatorial rematch. Walker and Barrett faced each other less than two years ago. Walker beat Barrett by five points back then, after raising $11 million to Barrett's $6 million. That is, Walker raised 65% of the funds raised by the Republican and Democratic candidates that year and he won 53% of the two-party vote. This week, Walker raised about 88% of the funds raised by the two candidates and he won -- wait for it -- 54% of the two-party vote.

          So there's your money effect, folks. Go from a 2:1 money advantage to a 7:1 money advantage, and it could increase your vote share by a full percentage point! Woo hoo!

          I don't mean to sound snide, but I'd say in general that if you pair the same candidates up against each other for the same office, you'll probably get similar results. And I'd say that the real lesson here is how little the electoral results changed after a vast change in financing. That is, the biggest story here is that money didn't matter all that much.

          Not the common view, but there is the data...

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 07:29:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Bet there's a lot of overlap between... (0+ / 0-)

    ....Walker/Obama supporters and Walker Voters From Union Households.

    "The disturbing footage depicts piglets being drop kicked and swung by their hind legs. Sows are seen being kicked and shoved as they resist leaving their piglets."

    by Bush Bites on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 04:42:12 AM PDT

    •  18% that would vote for Obama and Walker (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bush Bites, shoeless, Mistral Wind

      is a huge number. If 1/5 of Walker's voters were from otherwise Democratic voters, I think a big chunk of that was probably people that didn't support the recall process and not that they supported Walker. Although if you didn't support the recall process, I dont know why you wouldn't just stay home.

      •  38 percent of Union HHs supported Walker. (0+ / 0-)

        So the 18 percent could fit within the larger percentage.

        "The disturbing footage depicts piglets being drop kicked and swung by their hind legs. Sows are seen being kicked and shoved as they resist leaving their piglets."

        by Bush Bites on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:07:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  in the 2010 WI exit poll (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DemFromCT

        16% of people who said that they had voted for Obama in 2008 voted for Walker (link). Not directly comparable, but in the same ballpark.

        That doesn't prove anything, but it seems likely that there really are a bunch of Wisconsin voters who generally support both Obama and Walker, at least against their respective opponents. Of course, neither the 2010 nor the 2012 recall electorate looks just like the 2008 electorate.

      •  Some folks feel (0+ / 0-)

        it's their civic duty to vote, so they probably figured it wasn't right to toss him mid-term over his policy positions, as opposed to something heinously (quasi) criminal, such as blatant nepotism.

        "I'm not really thrilled about the guy, but let him finish out his term, and I'll likely vote against him in two years."

    •  Reinventing the "Reagan Democrat"? nt (0+ / 0-)

      "If this Studebaker had anymore Atomic Space-Age Style, you'd have to be an astronaut with a geiger counter!"

      by Stude Dude on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:32:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  the stories use polls to make the poin! ;-) (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HudsonValleyMark, DRo, Larsstephens

    Anywhay, for those at NN12, here's the blurb:

    Netroots Nation 2012
    Making Sense of Polling Data

    Session Type(s): Panel
    Starts: Saturday, Jun. 9 3:00 PM
    Ends: Saturday, Jun. 9 4:15 PM
    Room: Ballroom D

    This panel will share insights to help you interpret the next set of polling data you see. We’ll discuss the huge challenge of sampling cell-phone-only households, whether mainstream media outlets should start covering automated polling, the current state of polling over the internet and whether social media has a role to play in measuring public opinion.

    Moderator
    Greg Dworkin/DemFromCT

    Panelists
    Mark Blumenthal
    Jon Cohen
    Margie Omero
    David C. Wilson

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 04:43:43 AM PDT

    •  Is the crazy lady still walking around... (0+ / 0-)

      ....taking "undercover" videos?

      "The disturbing footage depicts piglets being drop kicked and swung by their hind legs. Sows are seen being kicked and shoved as they resist leaving their piglets."

      by Bush Bites on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 04:53:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wish I was able to be there (0+ / 0-)

      The state polls thus far in June are not good.   They project to an average lead of 2.48 for Obama, down from the 3.78 lead in May.  The projected probability of Obama winning is down to 70.4%.

      It is an odd mix of pollsters in June: EPIC-MRA has very  odd numbers in Michigan, Purple Strategies has no track record and in their first round they leaned very Republican.

       

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 06:21:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  "Older, whiter and more conservative" (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eeff, Mistral Wind, Vicky, Larsstephens

    The vanishing GOP electorate in its last gasps. Even they can see the end coming though, which is why they're so angry.

  •  College-age voters were home for the summer. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eeff, melvynny, Mistral Wind, Vicky

    Could explain part of the age discrepancy between this week and 2008.

    "The disturbing footage depicts piglets being drop kicked and swung by their hind legs. Sows are seen being kicked and shoved as they resist leaving their piglets."

    by Bush Bites on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 04:44:46 AM PDT

    •  Most of them go to school where they live (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Egalitare

      year-round in Wisconsin.

      "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

      by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:05:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd have to see the numbers. (0+ / 0-)

        I live in Illinois and I know tons of people from here who went to college in Wisconsin.

        "The disturbing footage depicts piglets being drop kicked and swung by their hind legs. Sows are seen being kicked and shoved as they resist leaving their piglets."

        by Bush Bites on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:20:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  also, there's a mobilization issue (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Vicky

          On a campus, you can create a buzz.

          That said, I would take the exit poll estimates of youth turnout with a grain of salt. I don't know all the methodological details this year, but you've got 35 interviewers handing out exit polls and guesstimating the ages of the people who refuse to fill them out. It's not bad, but it sure isn't perfect.

          •  Yeah, good point. (0+ / 0-)

            Most campuses probably have polling places too, so it's a lot easier for the semi-motivated to roll out of bed to vote.

            At home, they have to get in the car and schlep to the local firehouse or whatever.

            "The disturbing footage depicts piglets being drop kicked and swung by their hind legs. Sows are seen being kicked and shoved as they resist leaving their piglets."

            by Bush Bites on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:37:09 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  And exit poll interviewers tend to be young (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HudsonValleyMark

            as I saw again this week, so they may not be as good at estimating age as we oldsters -- and they may not find as many older voters willing to be interviewed by youngsters.  

            And then there is that weird Wisconsin tradition of lieing to pollsters, weary as we are of them in a swing state.  You can't lie about as much when face to face with an exit poller, of course.  But I'm here to tell ya that, having been called dozens of times by pollsters just in recent months and weeks, I am a 19-year-old white male Ron Paul fanboy.

            I say that for the entertainment value for my 70-year-old spouse, who cracked up every time he heard me do that.  Then he got into it, too.   He is a 23-year-old African American female supporter of Romney.

            Hey, the winters are long here, and so are the endless campaigns in a swing state, well before the recalls.  So we take our fun with the outsiders -- and especially their stoopid questions that show no knowledge of Wisconsin law, geography, etc. -- as we can.

            "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

            by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 06:58:44 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  FWIW (0+ / 0-)
              You can't lie about as much when face to face with an exit poller, of course.
              The exit polls are paper questionnaires, so you could pose as a thirty-something neo-Nazi if you wanted, to the extent that the response categories allow it. I believe the interviewers are supposed to estimate the ages of both respondents and non-respondents, so if many respondents in a precinct messed with their ages, the folks in the decision room might conclude that the data from that precinct should be downweighted or ignored. Or they might not notice at all. Whatever.

              Anyway, my main point is that when we're comparing 18% in 2008 to 16% in 2012, that difference is in the range of random sampling error -- not even to mention other sources of error.

              •  Good point (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                HudsonValleyMark

                and thanks for reiterating it.

                Interesting, though, re your previous point, as I saw (this week) an exit poller who was doing the interview orally.

                We must have been subjected to multiple exit pollers, which is not surprising, with the incredible multiplicity of other sorts of pollsters so fascinated by Wisconsinites.

                "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

                by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 08:38:13 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  well, stuff does change without my noticing, but.. (0+ / 0-)

                  I would be shocked if Edison Media Research switched over to oral interviews. Actually, it's almost inconceivable to me that they could do that if they wanted to: too many questions. Conceivably they could have a short-form interview; for all I know, maybe someone paid them to do a study of interview mode effects! (Presumably many people are more willing to check some boxes on a survey than to flat-out tell some stranger at the polling place how they voted.)

                  But anyone can do an exit poll (subject to restrictions that vary across states), so if you're not fairly sure that it was someone from the media-sponsored exit poll, I would guess that it wasn't.

                  •  Thanks, again, for more info (0+ / 0-)

                    and fyi, I'm not fairly sure at all about the exit poller's employer.

                    As soon as I figured out that it was an exit poller, I just ran like hell to get away from being a lab rat, yet again.  It's bad enough being a canary in the coal mine of Wisconsin.

                    "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

                    by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 09:19:08 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

        •  Tons of Illinoisans is a terrifying thought. (0+ / 0-)

          And I bet that those you know went to Marquette -- we can be thankful if most of those students did not vote, conservative as they are -- or UW-Madison?  

          "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

          by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 06:52:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  excellent ! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DRo, Larsstephens

      Thanks I needs a jolt of laugher

    •  actually in the 70's this was an issue in VA (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      One Opinion

      where the GOTV involved registering people who were institutionalized.  The argument was that people who were institutionalized were not competent to vote.  From memory, I think the upshot was to go case by case and to not allow registration only where a pt had been certified as incompetent by a physician or judge (which opened another can of worms.  Remember this state also sterilized institutionalized pts routinely)  

  •  Disagree with this. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eeff, DRo, Mistral Wind
    three-quarters say the justices’ decisions are sometimes influenced by their personal or political views
    They're ALWAYS influenced by their personal or political views.

    Let's quit the charade.

    "The disturbing footage depicts piglets being drop kicked and swung by their hind legs. Sows are seen being kicked and shoved as they resist leaving their piglets."

    by Bush Bites on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 04:48:55 AM PDT

  •  Wonder if the Prez dodged a bullet... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    singe

    ...on that jobs report?

    Must admit, I thought it was curtains.

    Maybe i paid too much attention to the pundits?

    "The disturbing footage depicts piglets being drop kicked and swung by their hind legs. Sows are seen being kicked and shoved as they resist leaving their piglets."

    by Bush Bites on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:01:14 AM PDT

    •  Is anybody besides political junkies actually (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bush Bites, Mistral Wind, Vicky

      paying attention to the job report numbers yet?

      We pay attention to them because we are plugged into them. Low info voters won't care until the Republicans start blasting TV ads out about them.

      •  Perhaps not. (0+ / 0-)

        Good for us.

        "The disturbing footage depicts piglets being drop kicked and swung by their hind legs. Sows are seen being kicked and shoved as they resist leaving their piglets."

        by Bush Bites on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:11:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The public won't be able to ignore (0+ / 0-)

          the job numbers as they slip even further.  The press' hair will be on fire. Sequestration cuts are set to affect job numbers as employers, whose services are contracted by the federal government and who make their plans months in advance, are warning of layoffs if planned cuts go into effect.  As January approaches - the time for sequestration cuts to go into effect - the job numbers will look worse and worse.

          "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

          by SueDe on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:40:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  any attention paid those assholes is too much.n/t (0+ / 0-)
      •  Guess it was the reaction to the jobs numbers..... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        singe

        .......combined with the market drop.

        Looked scary for a few days there -- to me, anyway.

        "The disturbing footage depicts piglets being drop kicked and swung by their hind legs. Sows are seen being kicked and shoved as they resist leaving their piglets."

        by Bush Bites on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:14:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  it is all very scary. the scariest thing is how (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          llywrch

          the right is getting some traction in playing one frightened group (out of work, no hope for pensions or health care) against another frightened group (pensions and health care contracted for long ago now being threatened) against each other with the help of the pundits who seem to be unaware of problems such as  global warming, starvation, banking and lending corruption, disappearance of honey bees and so on.

          i am not saying that unemployment isn't a problem but the nuances of  whether 69,000 or 169,000 jobs get created in a month pale when put up against the complete refusal of the rightists in congress to do anything about it such as fund the rebuilding of the nations decrepit infrastructure.

    •  well Arpaio has sent his head deputy from his (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bush Bites, Mistral Wind, tb mare

      "protection squad" to Hawaii along with a coterie of former swiftboaters and current birthers to sleuth out Obama's original BC.  It seems Arpaio has decided his jurisdiction extends to all 50 states and that he is not subject to any oversight as he uses public money on this wild goose chase while thousands of felony warrants languish unserved

  •  Mitt's background gets stranger and stranger (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bush Bites, singe, Vicky, Larsstephens

    Now school chums are reporting that back in the day, Mitt, that merry prankster, had a cop uniform and a blue light and would dress up as a cop, put the blue light on his car and "pull over" girls.  Hilarity would ensue all around. Jocularity.... Jocularity for all.  At least that is the take from the GOP hierarchy.

    Women seem to take a dimmer view of someone playing dress up for the sole purpose of harassing them
    '

  •  All is well. Scanning librul blogs in Wisconsin (0+ / 0-)

    for the last few days, it looks like Obama will be fine if he can buy Wisconsin . . . because he's going to have to pay dearly for what he did not do.

    As ever, it's what didn't happen that is the news for those who are sufficiently informed and capable of analysis.

    The headline that didn't happen in Wisconsin last spring or this year again has fueled an anger against Obama that may become risible and visible if he comes here on the campaign trail.

    (As for me, the headline that didn't happen here in Wisconsin on Wednesday makes me happy and sleeping a lot better than for a long time.  Our pension fund is safe, as is so much more here now.  But media don't run banner headlines about special sessions that governors do not call.)

    "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

    by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:27:42 AM PDT

    •  Right (0+ / 0-)

      because when exit polling shows a lean R electorate that handily voted for Scott Walker will also handily vote for Obama, he certainly will be paying a dear price?

      So you're pissed off because the president of the united states didn't inject himself into an election that Barrett was going to lose all along?

      •  Nah, I'm not pissed off at all. I repeat: (0+ / 0-)

        the headline that didn't happen in Wisconsin makes me very happy.

        Obama doesn't piss me off one way or t'other, as he and the DNC are so removed from our reality that it's like reading the foreign-affairs section of the noozpaper.

        But since they matter to other commenters, what I was saying is what I am seeing in librul blogs in Wisconsin by like-minded folk who still care about Obama, as is evident in their hurt.

        As for your parsing of the polls, if you take comfort from that, I certainly understand.  As I said, I know what makes me happy, because I know what was my goal, and it was met.  If your goal is happy interpretations of exit polls, the most ephemeral of all creatures, you can be happy, too!

        "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

        by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 06:48:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Bain poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MRobDC

    47% of likely voters said they agreed with the statement that private equity firms “care only about profits and short-term gains for investors. When they come in, workers get laid off, benefits disappear and pensions are cut. Investors walk off with big returns, and working folks get stuck holding the bag.”

    53% of likely voters had no fricking clue about what a private equity firm is.

    Ann Richards on how to be a good Republican: You have to be against all government programs, but expect Social Security checks on time.

    by shoeless on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:47:52 AM PDT

    •  There needs to be some education here. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      shoeless, Superpole

      Republicans are trying to blur the lines between leveraged buyouts (LBO) and venture capital.

      Bain did both, but mostly LBOs.  That's where the layoffs occured.

      •  They did the leveraged buyouts at companies (0+ / 0-)

        which paid good wages, and had nice pension funds to raid. They did their venture capital at companies which paid very low wages, and had no benefits. Funny, the Republicans never mention this.

        Ann Richards on how to be a good Republican: You have to be against all government programs, but expect Social Security checks on time.

        by shoeless on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 07:14:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Or is it proof of the power of money? (0+ / 0-)

    Millions were spent on Walker commercials and he won by a substantial margin even though exit polls showed that some of Walker's voters still support Obama for President. What will happen when the big money behind Romney spends it on commercials in the presidential race?  Will it swing some of Obama's supporters Romney's way? That is what I fear will happen.

    •  I don't think we can say that the money did anyway (0+ / 0-)

      They spent $40 million and didn't improve their margin over the 2010 election.

      •  LOL... That was not the Goal (0+ / 0-)

        The Koch's, etc., spent millions in 2010 flipping nine formerly dem governor seats to repuglican, including getting Walker elected in WI.

        of course they're not going to stand by and do nothing regarding the recall. they've got to defend their "investment".

        BTW, margins don't matter. If Barrett had won by the same margin, I doubt anyone here would bring it up.

        "I don't feel the change yet". Velma Hart

        by Superpole on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 07:21:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Margins do matter (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Cream City

          $40 million dollars later, they were back to where they were in the beginning. All of the outside spending got Walker 205,509 more votes in 2012 than in 2010. Barrett got 158,482 more with far less money. Walker was going to win regardless. When the majority of your electorate doesn't agree with the premise of a recall election from the beginning you are going to lose anyway. The $40 million didn't change opinions.

          •  About voters against recalls (0+ / 0-)

            . . . to be clear, that was not true "from the beginning."

            Questioning of the premise of recalls did not emerge as a major (or even much of a minor) issue last year.  I'm in the district that was targeted the most last year, deluged with tv ads and literature and more.  The issue did not come up.

            This issue was the message of many ads this year by Walker, Kochs, et al., this year that blanketed the state.  And, clearly, it worked.  That is, I think that you are wrong in stating that "$40 million didn't change opinions."  Looks like it did on this point.

            What was needed was testing of the impact of Walker's ads for months and months before the recall campaign even (officially) began, as we now can see -- ain't hindsight lovely -- to tailor Dem ads to counter that message.

            But to have a governor win with a campaign that attacks our state constitution on this?  That has to be intriguing.

            "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

            by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 12:53:45 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  It doesn't matter that they didn't improve... (0+ / 0-)

        ...their margin. They won and that's what counts.

        After all the rancor and heart-ache that Wisconsinites have gone through as a result of Walker's policies, starting with his hidden agenda of union-busting, you would think that he should have lost votes simply for being a tyrant unwilling to compromise.

        I still say that all of the money that was poured into negative advertising demonizing the unions and lying about Walker's record is what kept him in office.

        The danger is in thinking that Obama is sitting pretty in Wisconsin. Once the negative commercials start we'll see his numbers shift. I only hope that we have enough to balance things out.

    •  It's what Team rMONEY is "banking" on n/t (0+ / 0-)

      When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

      by Egalitare on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 06:05:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes. (0+ / 0-)

      So far, and the tally keeps going up daily of the of the cost of the recall as more info on expenditures comes in, Repubs spent $26 per vote and Dems spent $4 per vote.

      So all that the Dems have to do is buy Wisconsin, too.

      Fortunately, eleventh-hour tweets are cheap.

      Then all that they have to do is send Debbie Wasserman-Schultz again for a fundraiser -- not to bring funds for Wisconsin but to demand more from Wisconsin.

      Of course, we're a tad tapped out here. . . .

      "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

      by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 07:12:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bush poll (0+ / 0-)

    CNN Poll: George W. Bush only living ex-president under 50%

    75% of those polled approved of George W. Bush being an ex-president

    Ann Richards on how to be a good Republican: You have to be against all government programs, but expect Social Security checks on time.

    by shoeless on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:57:43 AM PDT

  •  W is behind the skulduggery (0+ / 1-)
    Recommended by:
    Hidden by:
    llywrch

    BTW, how's the Limbaugh boycott working out for ya?

    Wisconsin: "This is the END of democracy and life in America as we know it." From a Koolaid drinker, following the Wisconsin election results.

    The ghost of Jim Jones is amongus--and so are his mindless minions.

  •  If the Bain argument works in Ohio.... (0+ / 0-)

    ...then the election is over.  It makes a lot of sense that it would resonate since Ohio has had a lot of factories close and jobs shipped overseas.

  •  Where is Rhode Island, anyway? Isn't it a (0+ / 0-)

    suburb of Pittsburgh?

    What we call god is merely a living creature with superior technology & understanding. If their fragile egos demand prayer, they lose that superiority.

    by agnostic on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 06:30:11 AM PDT

  •  Abramowitz: Flogging the Dead Horse (0+ / 0-)

    Why are people making a BIG deal out of the senate seat pick up this week in WI? as many have stated: the WI senate is in recess for the year- and half the senate is up for election this November as is all of the state assembly.

    are we that desperate for a "win" in this whole mess?

    "I don't feel the change yet". Velma Hart

    by Superpole on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 07:15:22 AM PDT

  •  NO pundit roundup tomorrow??? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT

    Is that legal? Even possible? It's like closing an Interstate, or the sun not coming up or something...

    "Maybe this is how empires die - their citizens just don't deserve to be world leaders anymore." -Kossack Puddytat, In a Comment 18 Sept 2011

    by pixxer on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 07:40:14 AM PDT

    •  definitely not legal (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pixxer

      but certainly possible.

      All of the DK staffers are either coming, going or otherwise engaged tomorrow in Providence.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 07:47:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Why did over 30% of union members vote for (0+ / 0-)

    Walker? That question was raised by Tom Hayden of The Nation. He's really disappointed in the tactics and focus of the unions and the Democratic party. I think he has a point; I heard part of his interview on KPFA this morning.

    •  Wisconsin has a long history (0+ / 0-)

      of vote splitting -- Clinton for pres, Thompson for gov, Feingold and Kohl for senators, with a local mixture of Republicans and Democrats (often depending on personalilty).

      •  Hayden's basic premise was the unions should have (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Cream City

        "gone to the streets" and not channel their energy through the Democratic establishment, or so I understand it.  I'm not sure, in detail, what he wanted them to do. Certainly more voter education might have helped counter the Koch $$ poured into ads.  I just want to know the details of what he thought they should have done. Simply having daily demonstrations isn't going to do much to sway the unconvinced.

    •  That's not exactly correct. (0+ / 0-)

      In the exit poll, 38% of Walker voters said that they had a union member in their household.

      The average household is greater than 2 members. So if half the exit poll sample were union members and the other half were the spouse of a union member then probably around 19% of union members or slightly less voted for Walker.

      •  Correct; thanks. If Hayden misspoke on this point (0+ / 0-)

        let us not do so.

        An email from AFL-CIO this morn may clarify more:

        The AFL-CIO conducted an exit poll of union members which showed that union members overwhelming voted for Tom Barrett.  Here are some of the results:

        o    75% of union voters voted for Tom Barrett  
        o    76% of union voters felt Scott Walker has divided the state, put wealthy and large corporations first
        o    74% of union voters felt out of state spending influenced the election
        o    84% of union voters felt out of state spending benefited Scott Walker

        In sum:

        Union voters also showed that we are a force to be reckoned with, compromising 33% of all votes in Tuesday’s election.

        Ouch!  I hope not.  Proofread, AFL-CIO.  You mean "comprising."

        "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

        by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 12:58:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site