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Much like the array of polling which dropped on Thursday, Friday brings a poll to suit every meme. GOPers can embrace the Fox News national poll, while Democrats can embrace, of all things, the movement for Obama in both tracking polls.

Yes, you read that right, Democrats can cite Gallup. And Rasmussen.

They can also cite a little-known Democratic state senator (though she is in the leadership) leading Governor Rick Scott in Florida. By double digits.

On to the numbers!

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Fox News): Obama tied with Romney (43-43)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-45)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-45)

MISSOURI (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (49-42)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
(2014) FL-GOV: Nan Rich (D) 47, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 35

IL-13 (We Ask America): Rodney Davis (R) 47, David Gill (D) 38

MI-14—D (Practical Political Consulting for Clarke): Rep. Hansen Clarke 49, Gary Peters 33, Brenda Lawrence 13, Mary Waters 4, Bob Costello 2

MN-SEN (PPP): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 55, Kurt Bills (R) 29; Klobuchar 56, Joe Arwood (R) 29; Klobuchar 56, Pete Hegseth (R) 28; Klobuchar 55, Doc Severson (R) 27

(2014) MN-SEN (PPP): Sen. Al Franken (D) 51, Norm Coleman (R) 41; Franken 52, Tim Pawlenty (R) 41; Franken 57, Michele Bachmann (R) 35

MO-SEN (Rasmussen): Sarah Steelman (R) 51, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 39; John Brunner (R) 51, McCaskill 41; Todd Akin (R) 50, McCaskill 42

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...

  • On the presidential level, this was actually a pretty quiet day. The Fox News numbers seem a bit incongruent, because Obama's approval and favorability numbers in this poll were actually a touch better than the previous incarnation of the FNC poll, but his margin over Romney actually dipped a bit. But the two trackers both went 2-3 points in Obama's direction since Thursday. The only state numbers today came from the House of Ras, and they come from a state that Team Obama might love to steal, but one that no one sees as essential to his coalition: Missouri. Even then, the House of Ras has it within a modest range, but not dead even, as PPP saw it last week.
  • Downballot, the eye-catcher here isn't even a 2012 poll. It is the 2014 polls that really catch the eye. In Florida, the staggering vulnerabilities of right-wing Gov. Rick Scott were on full display in a trial heat PPP threw out pairing Scott with little-known (name recognition was almost nil) state senate Minority Leader Nan Rich. Despite being an essentially unknown quantity statewide, Rich held a double-digit edge over Scott. Equally impressive: freshman Democratic Sen. Al Franken steamrolling any of the three best-known Republicans in the state of Minnesota. And if you are wondering why PPP felt the need to poll Franken versus the Republicans, the answer is actually pretty simple: as Tom Jensen said, it was because the current Senate race (featuring safe freshman Democrat Amy Klobuchar) was so damned boring (26-28 point margins) that there was a need to find something more exciting.
  • Finally, the sketch poll of the day comes from the great state of Michigan, where Hansen Clarke is hyping a double-digit lead over fellow Democratic Rep. Gary Peters in the redrawn MI-13. I would strike a skeptical note if a poll had no undecideds in a presidential campaign. When it is in a House race? When it is in a House primary, no less? There's no way to not call bullshit on that one. Either his campaign pollster did not include an "undecided" option (which is a joke), or they dropped out the respondents who didn't have an opinion on the House race, which is practically malpractice, if that's the case. Either way, I'd wait for ... ahem ... more reliable polling before passing judgment on this one.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (26+ / 0-)

    "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

    by Steve Singiser on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:00:06 PM PDT

  •  It seems like the Rasmussen meme is (9+ / 0-)

    create a narrative that the race in Missouri for senate is a foregone conclusion, except for which republican will win easily.

    The definition of INSANITY: Voting Republican over and over and over and expecting the economy to get better.

    by pollbuster on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:34:51 PM PDT

  •  I keep hearing Obama is doomed (18+ / 0-)

    The media   is working overtime to get Obama. To bad the people don't seem to be co-operating.

  •  Too bad the daily trackers are largely worthless (4+ / 0-)

    even to try to pick up on trends they have been pretty ineffective so far.

  •  Are generic legislature polls done? (4+ / 0-)

    Because I'd think that if Scott polls behind an unknown non-Scott, some of his legislators could be taken down with him.

    Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

    by fearlessfred14 on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:44:33 PM PDT

  •  lives of the unknown rich and famous (0+ / 0-)

    "Gov. Rick Scott ... with little-known (name recognition was almost nil) state senate Minority Leader Nan Rich"
    Explanation: the name Scott looks too much like "Scot". Rich is "Rich".
    Therefore to win in November 2012, Obama should legally change his name "High Net Worth" before Lyndon Larouche or Oily Taintz beat him to it.

  •  Trackers seemed to move in the President's (10+ / 0-)

    direction.  Obama hasn't been ahead in Ras and Gallup much.  Pretty interesting that Fox can't get Rmoney above 43%.  That Ras MO poll is garbage.  MO is very much in play.  Can't see Missouri voters warming on values issues to Romney.  

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:58:39 PM PDT

  •  I feel like both trackers are off (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alice Olson, sebastianguy99

    But they do show movement and usually they show movements before other polls catch it.  They're almost like a preview.  That's my gut feeling anyway.  

    Check out my new blog: http://socalliberal.wordpress.com/

    by SoCalLiberal on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 06:21:47 PM PDT

    •  Really? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Alice Olson, crystalboy, itskevin

      I don't see that myself. I remember Nate commenting on how Rasmussen seems to shift without any correlation to the news. Gallup is little better. Sure, they have the odd good day but big picture they both have a statistical anti-Obama bias just as they did four years ago.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 06:36:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not really (0+ / 0-)

        No, the trackers don't catch any movement before other polls catch it.  ALL the daily, weekly, and even monthly movements in the trackers are random noise and completley unrelable.  They tend to get right the very long-term trends that occur over many months, but that's it...and they don't add any value in that regard, either, you can learn those trends from other more reliable polls.

        By the way, if one wants to get excited about Gallup and cite them, then one must cite also Gallup saying unemployment is down into the 7s now, for three days in a row, the first time ever since Gallup started its economic measures in January 2010 that unemployment has been below 8.0.  But no I don't suggest that's reliable, it's not, same as their election polling.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Jun 10, 2012 at 08:09:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  MI-14 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alice Olson, terjeanderson, SharonRB, IM

    I do not doubt Clarke is ahead in this district, despite Peters trying to strike early (which is the only way he'll win).  He may even be ahead by double-digits.  And, on a personal level, I hope Clarke pulls this out.  That said, the poll is bunk, and probably shouldn't have even been posted, or at least physically seperated from the legitimate polls.

    •  What makes me mad about Peters (0+ / 0-)

      is that he took his seat from that asshat Knollenberg and managed to retain it in 2010 when so many other seats went back to Republican control.

      So, of course, the immature brats who could not win against him fair and square gerrymandered his district out of existence, even though that district was one of the few in Michigan to have a population increase in the last census.

      •  Oakland County (0+ / 0-)

        Oakland County got screwed during redistricting all the way down to the county commission level, and I still can't figure out how it happened considering how powerful a county Oakland is in Michigan, particularly for the Republicans.  It's like their Republican power brokers were caught off guard, or something.  I do remember hearing L. Brooks Patterson complaining about how it was carved up, but that didn't go anywhere.

  •  Really, Scott? You have Claire down THAT much? (7+ / 0-)

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 06:53:15 PM PDT

  •  I may have to adjust my IL-13 race rating... (0+ / 0-)

    ...based on the We Ask America poll, of course, that's the same polling outfit that put out a bunk poll showing Halvorson leading the IL-2-D primary several months ago. Jesse Jackson Jr. won that primary by 40 points or so.

    Are there any crosstabs on the IL-13 WAA poll?

    "Tonight does not mark the end of our vigilance, but the beginning" -Lori Compas, 6/5/2012

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 08:16:38 PM PDT

    •  If there's one thing I learned about house polls (0+ / 0-)

      Especially this early in the cycle...they always WAY understate support for the challenger.  I got into trouble with this on my race ratings last cycle, because the national ballot was showing R's ahead, but a lot of their individual challengers in marginal seats were down 10+ points, even deep into September/October.  Then election day comes and its like, oh wow, how in the world did Joe Walsh/Chip Cravaack/Renee Elmers win, they were getting crushed just weeks ago???  Turns out that a lot of people just don't know who these people are until very late in the game, maybe not until they get into the voting booth and they see (R) or (D) by the person's name.  

      Bottom line - any polling this far out that shows a freshman or otherwise challenged Republican in a marginal district not winning, or only winning by single digits is more likely than not a goner in November.  The same goes for Dems sitting in R seats.

      •  IL-13 is a special case of sorts (0+ / 0-)

        This is an open seat after GOP incumbent Tim Johnson decided not to seek re-election after winning the March 20 primary, and GOP county chairs in IL-13 selected Rodney Davis to replace Johnson on the November ballot. Gill is a perennial candidate and Davis is an insider pick, so both candidates aren't all that strong.

        "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

        by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jun 09, 2012 at 11:34:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I'm still not sold on any national presidential (5+ / 0-)

    poll, this is going to be a state by state battle, and that's where Obama's true edge is and he should really pick the path he wants to take and just possibly give a few away. Since Romney needs a sweep, he's going to need to outspend Obama 6-1 in order to make up for the map...Hopefully the DSCC can make up the downballot difference in the states Obama might take a little lighter.

    •  Why outspend. The 2000 Bush strategy (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      conspiracy

      worked pretty well (and no, I'm not talking about the Florida mess):

      Give up New York.
      Give up California.
      Take most of the rest.

      Gore got the most populous states not named Texas, and Bush got pretty much everything else, winning two thirds of the states even while Gore, thanks to huge margins in New York and California, won a plurality of the popular vote.

      Shouldn't that strategy be a little easier now?  Big Gore states like New York and Illinois have lost delegates while Bush-targetted states have gained.

      LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

      by dinotrac on Sat Jun 09, 2012 at 02:28:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Bush was in California the final weekend in 2000 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dinotrac

        It is always cited as Exhibit A for the overestimation of Karl Rove's supposed genius.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Sat Jun 09, 2012 at 06:38:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Some of the mid-size states are a bit blue (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dinotrac

        especially now. Plus, Bush had to win Florida and Ohio both times. What's changed is that the Republican candidate has to fight for Virginia and North Carolina, states that used to require little effort to stay red. If Romney can't win those large and mid-sized swing states, he'll need to win bluish-purple Midwestern states or Northeastern states to make up for it.

        Plus, I don't think either campaign will spend heavily in Safe D or Safe R states like NY, CA, or TX. Obama will focus on purple states, and Romney will try and outspend him there.

        Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

        by fearlessfred14 on Sat Jun 09, 2012 at 07:59:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Is it too crazy to think (5+ / 0-)

    that Ras did a Missouri poll to just because PPP did one recently showing both races as dead heats?

  •  Have I told you lately (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cacamp, bear83, EcosseNJ, econdem

    how grateful I am for the work you put into this day after day, Steve?  Thanks very much for all that you do. I enjoyed seeing you via video on the Congressional Race panel yesterday.  Nice to put a face to the name.

    I hope one day to get to NN.  Alas, this probably should have been my year, but a broken leg and the call of our summer in Costa Rica combined to create too big a barrier.  Maybe next year.

    The good we secure for ourselves is precarious and uncertain, is floating in mid-air, until it is secured for all of us and incorporated into our common life. Jane Addams

    by Alice Olson on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 08:58:48 PM PDT

  •  Since the snazzy format change on Salon (0+ / 0-)

    I find the site unnavigable. Every time I go there my computer freezes and I have to control alt delete out of it... Their tech people say I must have an add-on or a too-high security setting causing the problem... Niether seems to be the case as far as I can tell. Otherwise, the attitude seems to be shrugs all around. Absolutely nothing in my browser - IE9 - was altered in any way. The problems began for me the very day they rolled out the new format.

    It's a shame. I've been a subscriber for many years. Anyone else had problems?

    "I don't try to describe the future. I try to prevent it." - Ray Bradbury

    by chuckvw on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 09:35:09 PM PDT

  •  I propose a ban on all polling until after (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Andrew Zahn, Bmeis

    Labour Day (hey, it's a compromise)...it may actually force the news meadia to attempt to focus on issues and not the daily horse race.  I'd like to know the moment when US cable news shifted from reporting to creating memes out of dumb-ass polls.

    1964 Cassius Clay vs Sonny Liston, 1997 Masters Tiger Woods vs Field, 2008 Barack Obama vs Field

    by ZenMaster Coltrane on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 10:19:30 PM PDT

  •  MN-Sen 2014 - Franken by 10+ (0+ / 0-)

    but how will the GOP drag out the recount into June 2015 if Franken puts a whipping on them?

  •  Demographics is destiny? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    Probably is.  But that doesn't mean there aren't blips along the way.

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Jun 09, 2012 at 06:57:05 AM PDT

    •  There is a bit of a flaw there (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      and that is that Wauke$ha's growth is not mentioned. Also, you just saw what trying to win Wisconsin without rural voters looks like. Thankfully, we're up against a candidate who plays better in suburban than rural areas, and the burbs in Wisconsin are mostly red already. Oddly enough, some of these rural areas, as well as the industrial Fox Valley, are actually trending Democratic even though they are white working-class.

      Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Sat Jun 09, 2012 at 08:10:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Have you played with the Walker-Barrett (0+ / 0-)

        numbers at all?

        I looked back at the Obama-McCain numbers from 2008, and it was surprising, at least to me, to see how well Obama did in rural Wisconsin. He won the state by over 400,000 votes, but what if we flipped a lot of the Obama McCain numbers in the smaller counties? My guess is, Obama would still come out a few points ahead, if his strength in the biggest counties persisted.

        Along the same lines, what if we managed the margins, so that we lost a rural county by 15-20 points instead of 25? I imagine our side could win, even if only by a small amount.

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Sat Jun 09, 2012 at 08:56:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Which Walker-Barrett numbers? (0+ / 0-)

          Are we talking the 2010 Average in DRA or the recall results?

          Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Sat Jun 09, 2012 at 09:30:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The recall results, I think. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            fearlessfred14

            Wasn't that what you were referring to?

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Sun Jun 10, 2012 at 08:11:28 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Urbanization and demographic change (0+ / 0-)

      Has flipped the presidency to a Democratic edge and given the GOP the advantage for control of Congress. This completes the realignment from the period cited by Harwood when Democrats had a lock on Congress and Republicans the presidency.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sat Jun 09, 2012 at 08:26:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But are these advantages natural or man made? (0+ / 0-)

        No doubt in some areas, there's no denying the natural strength of one party, but I wouldn't be surprised if the advantage you speak of would go away if gerrymandering weren't so blatant, just as it was decades ago for the Democrats.

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Sat Jun 09, 2012 at 09:00:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Franken vs Bachmann - Oh, please, oh, please (4+ / 0-)

    broadcast those debates nationally.  Franken will have so much fun revealing just what a danger that woman is to our democracy.

    Radarlady

  •  what i want to know is (0+ / 0-)

    how does Klobuchar do against Democrats.  Doing a poll that compares her to Republicans is redundant.  

    ‎"Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have the exact measure of the injustice and wrong which will be imposed on them." --Frederick Douglass

    by Nada Lemming on Sat Jun 09, 2012 at 09:00:16 AM PDT

  •  Even by Ras standards, that MO-Sen poll doesn't (0+ / 0-)

    pass the smell test.  This race has been close the whole way, and now all of a sudden McCaskill's getting lapped.  Something doesn't add up.

  •  I agree with your assessment of the MI-14 poll (0+ / 0-)

    Not only did they not talk about undecideds, but this poll was a push poll and only included Detroit voters -- probably a very small sample of Detroit voters.

    Full disclosure: I'm working on Brenda Lawrence's campaign.

    On the ground, Brenda has a lot more support than what shows up in this poll. There have even been rumors of another poll that shows her in the lead, although we haven't seen that poll shown anywhere in public.

    This race is far from over, for anyone.

    •  I take the last part back... (0+ / 0-)

      I do think it's over for Mary Waters and Bob Costello, whoever he is. No one knew anything about him or that he was running until he turned his signatures in.

      •  Waters (0+ / 0-)

        Waters was done before she even entered the race.  Detroiters will forgive a crook only up to a certain level; Congress is that level.  I really do think the whole Kilpatrick saga made it nearly impossible for Detroiters to support known crooks with a straight-face.

        BTW, I'm really torn on Lawrence and Clarke (never liked Peters).  On one hand, Lawrence is deserving of an office higher than the one she's been able to obtain.  I was thrilled when she was picked as the Lt. governor pick the last time around, though it was obvious from the beginning that she and Bernero were longshots.  I'm really disappointed, too, in how it seems the unions went behind closed doors and just decided without even polling the other candidates to give their endorsements to Peters.  It strikes me as heavy-handed and something worthy of investigation.

        On the other hand, Clarke may be one of my hands-down most favorite Congressman for being so genuine and earnest.  He doesn't know the definition of the world "no."  Plus, as a former Detroiter I'm kind of biased for Detroiters.  I know Lawrence is from south of 8 Mile, too, but she's firmly a suburbanite.

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