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Leading Off:

ND-Sen: Mason-Dixon for KVLY and KFYR. 6/4-6. Likely voters. MoE: ±4.0% (no trendlines):

Heidi Heitkamp (D): 47
Rick Berg (R): 46
Undecided: 7

Heidi Heitkamp (D): 46
Duane Sand (R): 38
Undecided: 16

Republican primary (Likely voters, MoE: ±4.5%):
Rick Berg (R): 73
Duane Sand (R): 16
Undecided: 11
At this point, there shouldn't be any doubt that the open seat North Dakota Senate race, between Dem ex-AG Heidi Heitkamp and GOP Rep. Rick Berg, is legitimately competitive. We've seen two DSCC internal polls showing Heitkamp up five each (which got no rebuttal from the Berg camp) and one nonpartisan poll that gave Berg a seven-point lead but was rife with methological problems.

And now we've gotten another public poll, but this one shows Heitkamp with a narrow lead over Berg. Moreover, it's from Mason-Dixon, a reputable pollster but one who've had a frequent GOP bias in recent years (case in point, they got dropped as the Las Vegas Review-Journal's pollster after consistently overstating Sharron Angle's support in 2010). Maybe the most important number here is the Heitkamp is up 51-36 among independents, which is her only path to victory given the generic Republican edge in this red state. Heitkamp also puts up a wide lead against the other GOPer in the race, tea partier/perpetual candidate Duane Sand, but unfortunately Sand looks DOA in the Republican primary against Berg. (David Jarman)


MI-Sen: You probably saw that EPIC/MRA poll which actually showed Mitt Romney rather implausibly leading Barack Obama by a single point in Michigan. Indeed, every other pollster except EPIC has seen leads for Obama, dating back to last year. So the fact that Dem Sen. Debbie Stabenow is beating her likeliest Republican opponent despite the pronounced GOP lean of this poll is a very heartening sign. She tops Pete Hoekstra by 49-38 margin, up from 48-42 all the way back in November, the last time EPIC looked at this race. (And then, they had Romney +5.)

MN-Sen: Please, friends, next time PPP asks where to poll, don't choose Minnesota:

The 2012 Minnesota Senate race may be up there for the most boring one we've polled on this cycle. Amy Klobuchar's one of the most popular Senators in the country, her opponents are all no names, and the main suspense from poll to poll is whether her leads over the GOP field will be closer to 20 points or 30.

They're closer to 30 this time around. Klobuchar has a 26 point lead over Kurt Bills (55-29), a 27 point one over Joe Arwood (56-29), and advantages of 28 points over Doc Severson (55-27) and Pete Hegseth (56-28).

Bills in fact is already the nominee, since all the other candidates dropped out after he won at the state GOP convention. But it hardly makes a difference who the Republicans put up, and Tom Jensen knew in advance that this race was an ultra-snoozer, so he tossed in some questions about Minnesota's next Senate contest:
Since the 2012 Senate race looks so boring, we took a look ahead to the 2014 contest. Al Franken's proven to be a stronger than might have been expected Senator. 50% of voters approve of him to 36% who disapprove. Democrats have ended up being pretty universally happy with him (85/4) and he's strong with independents as well (48/33).

Franken leads hypothetical contests with Minnesota's three leading Republicans. He has a 51-41 advantage over Norm Coleman, a 52-41 one over Tim Pawlenty, and a 57-35 advantage on Michele Bachmann. It's impossible to say what the political climate will look like in 2014, but at least for now Franken finds himself in a strong position.

Those Franken leads are wider than PPP found in January, when he was up 49-43 over T-Paw and 54-39 over Crazy Eyes. So maybe this race will wind up being less exciting than previously thought, too.

PA-Sen: This week in violent Republican eliminationist rhetoric:

Pennsylvania Democrats are attacking the Republican U.S. Senate nominee over comments he made at a primary campaign forum where he indicated he wanted to "hang" U.S. Sen. Bob Casey (D), a remark the Republican said was taken out of context.

Democrats are using a video clip of Republican Tom Smith at a forum during the March primary campaign where he used the word "hang" after talking about Casey's policies. Smith quickly dialed back from the comment at the time.

"We will hang him," Smith said. "I should not say that."

No, that's not called "taking it out of context." That's called "saying what you believe out loud."


FL-Gov: PPP is out with a hot batch of Florida miscellany, including numbers on gay marriage (voters are still narrowly against it, 42-45, but that's much improved from last time they asked) and the Miami Heat. But most significantly, they take a look at a matchup between Republican incumbent Gov. Rick Scott and Dem state Sen. Nan Rich, who'd be a likely gubernatorial nominee in 2014 if Charlie Crist doesn't do the full 180 on his party status and run again. Despite only 14% of voters having heard of her, she still leads Scott (whose approvals are now 31/56) by a 47-35 margin. (David Jarman)

MI-Gov: Michigan Rising, a group that was seeking to recall Republican Gov. Rick Snyder, has done an about-face and dropped their efforts to get a recall on the ballot. Looming large over the decision were the results on Tuesday in Wisconsin, but the anti-Snyder efforts had never seemed to have the urgency of the Wisconsin movement. Crucially, they also said they were also short on their targets for signature collection. (David Jarman)


AZ-08: Wow. Apparently someone didn't get the memo that, in a race to replace a sitting congresswoman who nearly succumbed to gunshot wounds, hyping the military background of a candidate with a photo of him holding an assault rifle, isn't a very cool move. But that's precisely what a PAC supporting Republican special election candidate Jesse Kelly did this last week, in an email fundraising appeal. It's worth clicking the link to see the weak-tea reply to NPR offered by the Kelly campaign. (Steve Singiser)

CA-30: Rep. Howard Berman is out with his second endorsement from a Republican colleague, this time from Elton Gallegly, who retired rather than face a reconstructed Dem-leaning CA-26. (Rep. Darrell Issa previously gave Berman a pat on the back, something which even appeared in a third-party ad on Berman's behalf.) That may seem kind of a strange for a Democrat to tout, but it makes sense since there's no Republican on the ballot in November, thanks to California's top-two primary, and the decisive votes for Berman and fellow -erman Brad Sherman will be coming from the district's few Republicans. (David Jarman)

CA-31, CA-02, CA-21: Looks like the Golden State, which just switched to a top-two primary, is taking another cue from Washington... dragging the counting on for days afterwards. The Secretary of State's office reports there are still nearly one million ballots that remain to be counted (mostly vote-by-mail but also provisional ballots), meaning that they're only halfway done tallying up the vote. A county-by-county list of remaining ballots is available at the link; unsurprisingly, gigantic Los Angeles County has the most. If you're hoping that more counting in San Bernardino undoes the Dems' screwup in CA-31, though, that's not likely: only 5,000 remain uncounted there. Nearly 24,000 remain uncounted in Marin County, though, so it's possible that Norman Solomon could still squeak into 2nd in CA-02; likewise, 31,000 outstanding ballots in Fresno County may mean the book's not closed on Blong Xiong just yet in CA-21. (David Jarman)

CA-51: Here's another example of California's awful new top-two primary leading to consequences that the goo-goos who pushed this system on voters I'm  sure never intended. State Sen. Juan Vargas, wanting to avoid a general election fight against fellow Democrat Denise Moreno Ducheny in November in this strongly blue district, spent some $40 to $50K on misleading mailers boosting the candidacy of Republican Michael Crimmins. That helped Crimmins to finish in second with 20%, versus just 15% for Ducheny. Now Vargas is likely to cruise into Congress, since Crimmins has virtually no chance of winning a seat like this.

P.S. Just before the primary, we also noted that a mysterious super PAC with the Orwellian name of "Citizens for Prosperity and Good Government" also dropped $12K on flyers promoting Crimmins. As with most of these shadowy dark money groups, it's very hard to figure out who's behind them, but the CPGG also spent $100K on radio ads back in May to boost the candidacy of Republican Doug LaMalfa in CA-01.

IL-12: Adjutant General William Enyart, the Illinois National Guard chief who recently expressed interest in running as a replacement candidate for Democrat Brad Harriman, just resigned from his post. I have to believe local Dem leaders, who will be picking a substitute for Harriman, must have given Enyart a good indication that he's a top contender—or even the top contender—because when Enyart's name first came up, he described his current gig with the National Guard as "the best job in the world." You don't quit the best job in the world in order to not get picked as the Democratic nominee.

IL-13: Republican-affiliated pollster We Ask America (last seen badly overestimating Scott Walker's support, though their 2010 polling of Illinois House races was commendable) is out with the first poll of the open seat race in the 13th (a 55% Obama district downstate) since the GOP selected Hill aide Rodney Davis to replace the abruptly-retired Tim Johnson. They find Davis leading Democratic nominee David Gill by nine points, 47-38. That contrasts with an internal from Gill that had Gill up 10 over Davis, though that was taken before Davis's selection was finalized. (David Jarman)

MI-14: After a day of rumors about its existence, Rep. Hansen Clarke finally released his new internal poll of the Democratic primary... eh, but not really. There's no polling memo, no margin of error listed, no number of respondents provided, no discussion of the methodology—nothing but some toplines which purport to show Clarke at 49, fellow Rep. Gary Peters at 33, and Southfield mayor Brenda Lawrence at 13, with a couple of other people in low single digits. You know what else is missing? Undecided voters. Plus, the poll (conducted by "Practical Political Consulting") was in the field May 31, June 1 and then June 4, so it skipped a weekend, which is just weird. This whole poll is a mess and a joke, and Clarke really shouldn't have released it, especially in this manner.

NY-18: Two big endorsements for attorney Sean Maloney as he seeks the Democratic nomination to take on freshman GOPer Nan Hayworth: The New York AFL-CIO and the New York State United Teachers, two large and important unions, just gave him their backing.

Grab Bag:

Netroots Nation: In case you missed our Netroots Nation panel (where we took Q&A on congressional races from the audience for over an hour on Thursday), you can watch it at the link or below:

Redistricting Roundup:

KS Redistricting: In record time, the federal court responsible for cleaning up the redistricting mess left by Kansas's legislature has released new maps for the state, including both legislative and congressional plans. You can find PDFs of all the maps at the link; a copy of the new congressional lines is below:

Map of new Kansas congressional districts
Black lines represent old districts
We'll bring you a full analysis later today. In the meantime, here's a link to the court's opinion (PDF) explaining its rulings.

VA Redistricting: While we've crunched most of the 2008 presidential election numbers for the country's new congressional districts ourselves, a number of state legislatures have helpfully provided the data for us. We'd happily relied on this information for quite some time in places like Texas and Florida, but an unresolved question—namely, did Barack Obama or John McCain win the apparently "50-50" VA-10?—prompted us to take a second look at the stats the Virginia lege published. Remarkably, it turns out the VA numbers we'd been relying on were wrong—just flat-out miscalculated.

Indeed, jeffmd took a deep dive back into the data and found that Republicans appeared to be conning themselves by leaving out a substantial portion of the early vote—and note that in 2008, Obama fared much better in the early vote than on election day. Calculated properly, the Obama share of the vote went up in all 11 Virginia congressional districts, and one (VA-02) flipped from a McCain seat to an Obama seat (narrowly). As for VA-10, it's not 50-50 at all, but rather 51-48 in favor of Obama. Click through for a detailed explanation of our methodology. We're convinced you'll agree that our data set is the one that should be relied on, not the legislature's.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Crist may be out of the running (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, MartyM, ArkDem14

    Apparently there is a trial of a GOP official coming up and they let loose the  Charie Crist is gay talk and said he hit on some guys as governor and paid them to be quiet.
    Of course it's a he said he said thing. seems that if this gets to trial some big shots in the GOP including Rubio are going to look bad and apparently Crist will be a prime witness.
    Also this may be Scott preemptively taking out his biggest opponent.
    This was front paged on HP as was Crists denial.

  •  How's this for "compassionate conservatism?" (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, Pinto Pony, MartyM, ArkDem14

    Apparently, Colorado State Rep. Marsha Looper's campaign manager forwarded an e-mail to supporters that praised her for voting against civil unions even though she has a gay son, despite the fact that he has asked her not to talk about his sexuality.

    She released some lame "I'm so disappointed this was released" quote when asked about it, but I don't buy that she didn't know anything about it.  Had she not known and cared any at all about her son, she would have fired the guy responsible not said "I'm so disappointed."

    Here's the story from the Denver Post:

  •  I hate methologial problems (0+ / 0-)

    It's so hard to break the addiction.

  •  Great news on ND senate. Any chance the ND (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, MartyM, ArkDem14

    presidential race  could be marginally competitive, given the cheapness of competing there and the nice way a blue ND and Montana would look on the map (granted only 6 evs). Of course, ind it might give the Mormon west feelings of paranoia.

  •  Gallup: Obama's union support similar to '08 (5+ / 0-)

    57-35 compared to 61-38.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 05:58:00 AM PDT

    •  Who Are These People? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, ArkDem14, LordMike, Larsstephens

      These union members voting for an unequivocal personal financial destruction at the hands of people who have made it abundantly clear that their top political priority is union workers' complete economic ruin present and future?

      •  It really makes you wonder, doesn't it? (0+ / 0-)

        It's not as if there are a bunch of southern white union members skewing the numbers against Obama.

        Wherever they live, these folks are genuinely out of touch and misinformed about which political party is in their corner.

      •  Nothing new (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        The same percentage, at least, voted for Reagan.

        Many, particularly in the construction unions, tend to be reactionary on social issues, and don't have a lot of use for public unions.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 07:20:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Guns, Gays, God, Abortion, Etc Etc (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, ArkDem14, Larsstephens

        And some folks just hate government period, even if they work for government.

        Remember the Tea Bag protests with signs like "Government: Hands Off My Medicare"?

      •  Social conservatives, anti-environmentalists, etc. (0+ / 0-)

        There are many Union members of one or both beliefs (some are fiscons too) who vote R on a regular basis. I remember a number on the Boeing factory floor who would expound on how Clinton was really a Communist, etc. They didn't scab, but they were certainly not per the liberal image of Union workers.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 07:52:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Under Normal Circumstances, I Get That..... (0+ / 0-)

          Most people seem to think they live in a bulletproof bubble and vote on a certain subset of values so long as they feel personally secure.  But with the GOP agenda of 2012 right there out in the open planning to have unions skinned, gutted, and used as rugs, one would think most of these guys would be motivated by their continued economic survival.  If these people aren't gonna quit voting for the party sworn to their destruction in 2012, it's never gonna happen.

      •  I'll tell you who the people are... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mark27, Gpack3, Larsstephens

        Most are conservatives who don't like their union.  They feel that they are superior to all their coworkers and the union is somehow "holding them back".

        The others are "I got mine" people who think that their union will never be affected by an anti-union president, or that their exceptional benefits and job security are independent of their union's work.


        by LordMike on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 08:28:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Abramowitz argues Obama should ignore swing (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, TrueBlueDem, Larsstephens

    voters, and concentrate on unregistered voters:

    The conventional wisdom about the 2012 presidential election, trumpeted by most pundits and media commentators, is that the outcome will be decided by the swing voters and that the candidate who is viewed as closest to the center will have the best chance of winning their support. However, the evidence presented in this article, based on recent polling data from the battleground states, shows that Democrats have little chance of winning over many swing voters but a much better chance of winning the votes of the unregistered if they can get them on the voter rolls and turn them out on Election Day.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 06:12:36 AM PDT

    •  And his analysis of the Wisconsin recall (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, LordMike, Larsstephens
      turnout was a key factor in incumbent Republican Scott Walker's victory over his Democratic challenger, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. While there was a heavy turnout for a special election, the final total of just over 2.5 million votes fell well short of the nearly 3 million votes cast in the 2008 presidential election. And Republicans appear to have done a better job of getting their voters to the polls. Turnout for the recall election was 91 percent of 2008 turnout in suburban heavily Republican Waukesha County, the largest GOP county in the state, but only 83 percent of 2008 turnout in Milwaukee County, the largest Democratic county in the state.

      The same pattern was evident in the exit poll results. The 2012 recall electorate was noticeably older, whiter, more conservative and more Republican than the 2008 electorate. Voters age 65 and older outnumbered those under the age of 30 by 18 percent to 16 percent on Tuesday. In contrast, four years ago, 18-29 year-old voters outnumbered those 65 and older by 22 percent to 14 percent. Most significantly, on Tuesday Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 35 percent to 34 percent according to the exit poll. Four years ago, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 percent to 33 percent.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 06:14:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I feel the key data point from the exit poll (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Paleo, ArkDem14, askew, Larsstephens

        Reflected the strong feeling from voters that the process was unfair on Walker.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 06:48:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah. Barrett's problem was margin, not turnout (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gpack3, LordMike, Larsstephens

          People just didn't like the recall. 83% of 2008 turnout is phenomenal for Milwaukee, and Dane came out huge. Barrett did poorly in critical swing areas, underperforming even his mediocre 2010 race. The fact that turnout was up almost 20% and Barrett lost worse than last time tells the whole tale, IMO.

          (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

          by TrueBlueDem on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 09:49:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Bad advice (9+ / 0-)

      People who merely study campaigns and elections, and have never worked in them, make these sorts of hyperacademic mistakes all the time.

      A campaign has to walk and chew gum at the same time, meaning you don't choose between swing voters and building your base.  You have to do both.  And if you're going to forsake one, it has to be building the base, because winning swing voters is what keeps it close enough for voter registration to matter at all.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 06:44:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's what Obama did in 2008.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      geoneb, Larsstephens

      He couldn't win with a Clinton electorate, so he "changed the rules" by getting people to vote who never voted before.


      by LordMike on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 08:37:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He's right. Far more easy Dem votes sitting there (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      geoneb, LordMike, Larsstephens

      than gettable "swing voters". The more forcefully you expand your base vote, the fewer resources are required for persuasion. That's how to blunt Citizens United. No amount of Koch money is going to move the needle on the black vote or the Hispanic vote much.

      (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

      by TrueBlueDem on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 09:45:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP has an AZ-08 poll out soon with Barber way up (5+ / 0-)
    •  Whoa, now they tweet... (4+ / 0-)

      ..."Democrat Barber leads by double digits."

      They say the poll will come out between 10 and 11 tonight (eastern time).

      If they prove right, this would be a bigger feather in their cap than their call on Holperin's state Senate special election win in Wisconsin last year.

      If they're wrong, they will have more egg on their face than in the IL-10 primary.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 06:41:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I just saw that!! Got so excited I (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, Dbug, Larsstephens

      virtually ran over here to tell someone!!
      First good news in my state in a looooong time!

      What if Winning The Chairman's Pub Quiz IS what it's all about, not the hokey pokey?

      by Julie Gulden on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 06:42:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  To be honest, I am surprised this one (4+ / 0-)

      was ever close. Hope the poll is right!

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 07:00:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If This Turns Out To Be a Two-Point Race.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, savvyspy

      I hope someone at PPP starts to evaluate their methodology as it's been highly suspect lately.  Their credibility is starting to get questioned so I hope for their sake they're in the ballpark with this.

      •  Oh bull (8+ / 0-)

        People are talking like they missed the margin in Wisconsin by 14 points instead of four. Do I really have to list yet again all the comparable polls in state after state?

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 07:10:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I Was Talking Less About Wisconsin..... (0+ / 0-)

          ....than their discrepancy with other pollsters on a growing list of state polls.

          •  Give them a chance to poll again in some states (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, DCCyclone, askew, Larsstephens

            Compare comparable dates and different polls say the same thing in NH, MN, OH, NC, FL, MT, NV and PA. They aren't optimistic in AZ and their last poll in WI was a tie. They seem to be a legit outlier in CO and IA. I hope you aren't giving them less weight in MI than EPIC.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 07:39:43 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  EPIC is very Republican (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:


              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 07:59:08 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  No other poll, including a Republican one a month (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                ago, has had Romney ahead.  The EPIC poll is a classic outlier.

                “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

                by Paleo on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 08:05:28 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yes, but (0+ / 0-)

                  Obama and Romney are both going to Michigan this week,  so that tells me that maybe it's not as much of an outlier as we had hoped, or why else would the campaign send Obama there? and why would Romney waste his time?

                  •  Romney was just in (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    ArkDem14, DCCyclone, askew, sapelcovits

                    Missouri a few days ago.  What are your feelings on Missouri's competitiveness, Mr. Dude?  Be honest.

                    •  According to Kos (0+ / 0-)

                      PPP had Obama up 1 in their last poll of the state.  Last I heard that's competitive, unless PPP is as big an outlier in Missouri, as they now are in Iowa and Colorado.  We've been arguing on this site that the Obama people should target Missouri, and I guess Romney wants to make sure of winning it, since he's listed as +3 on RealClearPolitics.  

                      •  I think Obama is going to Michigan (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:

                        because one of his best accomplishments is reviving the auto industry.  As I said below, follow the money not the candidate.  If big advertising dollars flow into MI and WI in large numbers, I will not argue they are uncompetitive.

                    •  Yeah, ad spending is the REAL "tell" (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      bumiputera, Larsstephens

                      Romney's allies are spending on ads in Michigan, but Romney is not, and most importantly Obama is not.  That latter bit is the real key, if Obama's private polling showed a lead inside 5 points, or even anything worse than that, then they'd have ads on the air in Michigan already.  And there are ad trackers who know in advance, always, when political ads are going on the air somewhere; political reporters keep tabs on this.

                      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 09:11:23 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  So, Obama should just totally ignore (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    LordMike, askew

                    Every state he is up 7-12 points in for the entire duration of the campaign? I'm sorry, but that is the implication of your statement. Romney, kind of like with McCain and PA in 2008, feels driven and compelled to do his damndest to win Michigan. From what I have observed, Romney is a more impulsive candidate than people give him credit for. He honest believes that if he pours enough time and resources into MI, he can win it. Obama is going to work the state hard, because it's important and big, but he's only going to do as much as he needs to to get a comfortable win. That is the logic.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 08:58:13 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

  •  The BORG are running for the GOP senate slot? (0+ / 0-)

    That explains so effing much.

    What we call god is merely a living creature with superior technology & understanding. If their fragile egos demand prayer, they lose that superiority.

    by agnostic on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 06:59:32 AM PDT

  •  Good numbers in North Dakota! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, DCCyclone, askew, Larsstephens

    and, you guys did phenomenal work on Virginia. Well done.

  •  Ye olde independent voter! (0+ / 0-)

    There is a saying asking who wants to be judged by 12 people who could not escape jury duty. My question is, who wants to live in a country whose fate lies in the hands of independent voters a/k/a those who could not escape jury duty?

    Mitt Romney: the "Bain" of our existence.

    by nomorerepukes on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 07:18:59 AM PDT

  •  Heitkamp (0+ / 0-)

        Would she be just another deficit peacock like Conrad, or more of an actual progressive like Byron Dorgan? If she's going to be another Conrad, I'd just as soon have the Republican.

  •  Maybe... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    an orange to blue for Heidi now?

    "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

    by JackND on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 07:39:18 AM PDT

  •  Romney Announces First Bus Tour (0+ / 0-)

    of small towns. Interesting that he's campaigning in Michigan and Wisconsin.

    "Mitt Romney’s campaign announced on Monday an upcoming bus tour, called “Believe In America: Every Town Counts,” focusing on small towns.

    The state schedule is as follows, with event details to be announced in the coming days:

    • Friday, June 15 – New Hampshire

    • Saturday, June 16 – Pennsylvania

    • Sunday, June 17 – Ohio

    • Monday, June 18 – Wisconsin and Iowa

    • Tuesday, June 19 – Michigan"

    Bus Tour

    •  That's a cloying title (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, Larsstephens

      Even by campaign standards.  Meanwhile, this is Mitt's fiirst small-town bus tour since "Hey Guys, Who Should We Outsource Next?"

      (See?  I can play along with campaign themes.)

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 07:51:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Michigan and Wisconsin are especially (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      hopeless places for Romney unless he is crushing Obama nationally.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 08:01:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe (0+ / 0-)

        Why would Romney go to Wisconsin and Michigan if they were hopeless.  Maybe Romney's campaign will go there once, take a poll and see if it is truly hopeless.  They must not feel that way now and the Obama folks are sending POTUS to Michigan, so maybe it is tighter than most of the polling.

        •  I think it's matter of Obama (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          not resting on his laurels. Romney is probably betting that he can make Michigan and Wisconsin competitive; there's always that potential. But currently he starts off pretty weak in those places. I think he will stubbornly target them anyway to expand the map. Even as he, surprisingly, seems prepared to give up on Pennsylvania.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 08:37:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Or is this in the tradition of Bill Clinton (0+ / 0-)

      a "thanks for saving my a&$ in the primaries" tour. I notice all of these states were critical in maintaining Romney's frontrunner narrative in the primaries (with PA managing that with a mere poll). I notice in the same vein that MN and CO are not on that list, even though CO is very swingy and MN is another PA in terms of going D by small margins.

      Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 08:12:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP AZ 8: Barber up 12 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 07:54:05 AM PDT

    •  That's a big lead (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Reminds me of the lead that Janice Hahn had over Craig Huey in just before the CA-36 special, accept this is more impressive, since AZ-8 is a lot less Democratic than CA-36.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 07:58:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is going to test their polling chops BIGTIME (0+ / 0-)

        PPP is going to have mud on its face in a big way if they're wrong.  Their blog, polling memo, and tweets treat their poll here as just plain accurate, no hedging at all.

        But meanwhile, I'm seeing a tweet from a Roll Call reporter confirming that Barber's own private polling has the race far closer, and there's been reporting that both sides have it within the margin of error.

        Either PPP hits a home run, or the private numbers somehow are screwed up.  And private numbers are virtually never so screwed up compared to a public poll.

        I fear we're going to find out PPP's reputation takes a steep dive this week.  I hope not, but I fear it.  And it will really hurt robpolling's reputation in a big way if this happens, since Rasmussen already is properly discredited and has dragged down all robopolling's reputation.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 09:16:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It depends on how much closer private polling is (0+ / 0-)

          Since this PPP poll says that Democrats are more enthusiastic, the private polling may have missed that and assumed a more Republican electorate.

          26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

          by DrPhillips on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 09:51:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It's possible (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          that Barber's pollsters are talking down expectations to support GOTV.

          •  That's what ColoDem said... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack, itskevin

   a reply to my essentially same but more long-winded comment in the other diary today.  Basically, that's an admission of......lying!  But yeah, it's a kind of lying no one would suspect, talking down your own lead, so they would get away with it!

            That sounds plausible.

            DrPhillips' comment that maybe private polling just got the turnout model wrong......well I greatly respect DrPhillips and agree with him most of the time, but that's not as credible.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 06:53:13 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Actually, it's the kind of "conservatism" I like (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              Making "conservative" assumptions about any sort of situation with "intangibles" such as turount provides a margin of safety.

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 07:07:23 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Maybe the private polling is very conservative (0+ / 0-)

                and uses a 99.99% confidence interval instead of 95%.  "Oh no, all meaningful polls are within the MoE, what will ignorant media talking heads do!?"


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