Former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords joins hands with former aide Ron Barber on stage as she supports him during a get-out-the-vote rally at the Rialto Theater in downtown Tucson, Ariz., Saturday, June 9, 2012. (Mamta Popat, Arizona Daily Star/AP Photo)
The size of this lead is certainly surprising to me. But then again Jesse Kelly is a nutjob and Ron Barber was the District Director for Gabby Giffords so apparently did a first-rate job of getting the voters out.
via PPP
Democrats are headed for a victory in tomorrow's special election to replace Gabby Giffords in the House....
Democrat Ron Barber leads with 53% to 41% for Republican Jesse Kelly, with Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis polling at 4%. Barber is well liked by voters in the district, sporting a 54/38 favorability rating. Kelly, meanwhile, has very high negatives with only 37% of voters rating him positively while 59% have a negative opinion.
...
Barber appears to have the race pretty much already locked up. 57% of voters say they've already cast their ballots, and with that group Barber enjoys a 21 point advantage at 58-37. People planning to vote tomorrow are much more evenly split with 46% for Barber and 45% for Kelly.
Barber's winning 90% of the Democratic vote, while Kelly's getting just 82% of Republicans. Barber also has a 51-34 advantage with independents. Barber's advantage is pretty thorough along demographic lines- he leads with men, women, whites, Hispanics, and voters in every age group.