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Back in January I put together a prediction for the November 2012 General Election for the Wisconsin Assembly:  January 2012 Predictions

Now that the nomination window closed about 2 weeks ago, I have taken the time to examine who has filed to run and reassess the 99 races.  Predictions were made based in part on data from DRA and candidate website information.  Feel free to offer suggestions.  A list of candidates can be found on the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board website.  Updates from January are in bold.

54 Seats are likely to be held by Republicans:
Current R districts that are safe or likely R districts:  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 14, 21, 23, 24, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 36, 38, 39, 40, 41, 52, 53, 55, 56, 58, 59, 60, 63, 67, 69, 82, 83, 84, 86, 87, 89, 93, 97, 98, 99.  (41 districts)
Current D districts that are safe or likely R districts:  13, 15, 22, 37, 42, 61, 62.  (7 districts)
Current R districts that COULD be in play:  50, 68, 69, 75, 93, 96.  (6 districts)

38 Seats are likely to be held by Democrats:
Current D districts that are safe or likely D districts:  7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 46, 48, 54, 57, 64, 65, 71, 73, 74, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 85, 91, 92, 94, 95.  (31 districts)
Current R districts that are safe or likely D districts:  44, 45, 47, 51, 66, 86, 90.  (7 districts)
Current D districts that COULD be in play:  none  (0 districts)

That leaves a total of 7 districts that are "in play":
Current R districts that ARE in play:  35, 43, 49, 72, 88.  (5 districts)
Current I who acts like an R that is in play:  25.  (1 district)
Current D districts that ARE in play:  70.  (1 district)

Clearly, these SEVEN seats are the ones Democrats will need to focus on to move toward providing a more balanced Assembly.  For being a rather 50/50 state on a lot of matters over time, this analysis clearly shows how redistricting in the hands of a select group of people in one party can skew the balance of power in government.

Once again, here is a link to the Assembly maps, both current map and the one to be used in this year's November election:  Wisconsin Assembly and Senate Maps

Details on each of the 99 Assembly seats are below.  Again, feel free to offer suggestions.  There are probably you know that I don't or possibly errors made below.

AD-1:  Incumbent Garey Bies (R).  Two Democrats are running in the primary to challenge Bies.  Likely R hold.
AD-2:  Incumbent Andre Jacque (R).  District shifts a bit to the west, but still hard for the Democrat who filed to win.  Safe R hold.
AD-3:  Incumbent Al Ott (R) is getting challenged in the primary by a Ron Paul style Republican.  A Democrat has also filed in the race, as has an Independent.  The district could come into play if Ott loses the primary.  Likely R hold.

AD-4:  Incumbent and former Green Bay City Clerk Chad Weininger (R) is being challenged by a Democrat.  Safe R hold.
AD-5:  Two Democrats are running to take on one-term incumbent Jim Steineke (R).  This seat was held by former Democrat and Lt. Gov. candidate (and current Outagamie Co. Manager) Tom Nelson.  Redistricting does not appear to have helped a Democrat win this seat.  Likely R hold.
AD-6:  Incumbent Gary Tauchen (R) has a Democratic challenger.  The district is a bit more Democratic due to redistricting, however not enough to give Tauchen a strong challenge.  Safe R hold.

AD-7:  Incumbent Peggy Krusick (D) has a Democratic challenger.  No Republicans have filed.  Safe D hold.
AD-8:  Incumbent Jocasta Zamarripa (D) also has a primary challenger, but no Republican filing.  Safe D hold.
AD-9:  Josh Zepnick (D) is the incumbent.  There will be a Democratic primary.  No Republican filed.  Safe D hold.

AD-10:  Incumbent Elizabeth Coggs (D) is not running.  Four Democrats, including current AD-22 Representative Sandy Pasch, and no Republicans have filed.  Safe D hold.
AD-11:  Incumbent Jason Fields (D) has a primary challenger, but again no Republican filed.  Safe D hold.
AD-12:  Incumbent Frederick Kessler (D)...  repeat AD-11!  Safe D hold.

AD-13:  Incumbent David Cullen (D) was elected to the Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors and is not seeking re-election to the Assembly.  The district’s territory has drastically shifted to the west into Waukesha Co and contains very little of the district’s original territory.  Three Republicans and one Democrat are running.  Safe R pickup.
AD-14:  Incumbent Dale Kooyenga (R) moves into more Republican territory against one Democrat who filed.  The challenger has a good message, but likely not a good fit for this district.  Safe R hold.
AD-15:  Incumbent Tony Staskunas (D) is not seeking re-election in this district that has also shifted westward and more Republican.  A Republican Milwaukee Co. Board Supervisor is running, with two Democrats running in the primary.  Safe R pickup.

AD-16:  Incumbent Leon Young (D) is not being challenged for re-election.  Safe D hold.
AD-17:  Barbara Toles (D) is not running for re-election.  Four Democrats, no Republicans, and an Independent have filed to run.  Safe D hold.
AD-18:  This is incumbent Tamara Grigsby’s (D) seat.  Eight Democrats, no Republicans, and a Libertarian are running to replace her since she is not running.  Safe D hold.

AD-19:  Incumbent Jon Richards (D) is running unopposed.  Safe D hold.
AD-20:  Two Republicans have filed to unseat long-time incumbent Christine Sinicki (D).    Few changes were made to her district in redistricting.  Likely D hold.
AD-21:  Incumbent Mark Honadel (R) is being challenged by a Democrat.  Likely R hold.

AD-22:  Incumbent Sandy Pasch (D) is now in AD-10.  AD-22 is in totally new (Republican) territory.  Current AD-99 Representative Don Pridemore (R) is likely to win this seat, although he is being challenged by another Republican.  Safe R pickup.
AD-23:  Incumbent Jim Ott (R) is being challenged by a Democrat.  Safe R hold.
AD-24:  Incumbent Dan Knodl (R) is being challenged by a Democrat.  Safe R hold.

AD-25:  Incumbent Bob Ziegelbauer (I, former D) is not seeking re-election.  Four Republicans and four Democrats are running for this seat.  IN PLAY.
AD-26:  Incumbent Mike Endsley (R) has both Republican and Democratic competition.  The old AD-26 was previously represented by Democrats for years until 2010.  The city of Sheboygan has now been split into both AD-26 and AD-27, diluting any Democratic retaking.  AD-26 includes the south and central parts of Sheboygan, and the highly Republican communities south of Sheboygan.  Safe R hold.
AD-27:  Incumbent Steve Kestell (R) barely remains in AD-27 with redistricting.  He gets a district more Democratic than his old AD-27, but not Democratic enough to un-elect him.  Safe R hold.

AD-28:  Incumbent Erik Severson (R) is being challenged by a Democrat.  A Democrat did hold this seat for two terms in the last decade.  Safe R hold.
AD-29:  Incumbent John Murtha (R) is also being challenged by a Democrat.  Numbers are a little more favorable here than in AD-28.  Safe R hold.
AD-30:  Incumbent Dean Knudson (R) also faces a Democratic challenger.  The geographic area shrinks significantly due to increasing population in the area.  Safe R hold.

AD-31:  Current AD-45 Amy Loudenbeck (R) is now in this district, which basically is the old 45th (only a small overlap with the old 31st, held by Republican Steven Nass).  She is being challenged by a Democrat.  Likely R hold.
AD-32:  Incumbent Tyler August (R) is being challenged by a Democrat and Libertarian.  Safe R hold.
AD-33:  Steve Nass (R) from AD-31 is now in AD-33.  Current incumbent Chris Kapenga (R) is now running in AD-99.  Nass faces Democratic and Libertarian opponents in November.  Safe R hold.

AD-34:  Incumbent Dan Meyer (R) is retiring.  Two Republicans, two Democrats, and two Independents are running.  Numbers favor Republicans.  Likely R hold.
AD-35:  Incumbent Tom Tiffany (R) is running for State Senate.  An insurance agent Mary Czaja (R), a town chairperson Kevin Koth (D) and Patrick Tjugum (I) are running.  This district could be picked up by any one of these three.  IN PLAY.
AD-36:  Incumbent Jeff Mursau (R) is being challenged by a Democrat.  Safe R hold.

AD-37:  Very little of the old AD-37 is in the new AD-37, including Incumbent Andy Jorgensen (D).  5 Republicans and 2 Democrats are vying for this seat.  Demographics are on the side of the Republicans in this gerrymandered district that dips into Democratic-leaning Dane County a little, but not enough to put it in play.  Likely R pickup.
AD-38:  Incumbent Joel Kleefisch (R) faces a Democrat and Libertarian here.  Safe R hold.
AD-39:  Three Republicans and one Democrat are attempting to win the seat currently held by Jeff Fitzgerald (R).  Safe R hold.

AD-40:  Incumbent Kevin Petersen (R) does not even have a challenger.  Safe R hold.
AD-41:  Incumbent Joan Ballweg (R) faces a Democratic challenger.  The territory shifts and becomes more Democratic.  Still, probably not enough for a Democrat to pick up, though, except in a strong sweep year.  Likely R hold.
AD-42:  Musical chairs once again.  Incumbent Fred Clark (D) shifts to AD-81, while current AD-47 Rep. Keith Ripp (R) slides into an easier district for him here.  A Democrat is running.  Safe R pickup.

AD-43:  Here we get interesting.  Current AD-43 Incumbent Evan Wynn (R) faces current AD-37 rep Andy Jorgensen (D).  Numbers in the district will slightly favor Jorgensen, although he picks up many new constituents.  IN PLAY.
AD-44:  This Janesville urban district was long held by Democrats until the 2010 election.  Four Democrats have filed to run against Joe Knilans (R).  Likely D pickup.
AD-45:  Incumbent Amy Loudenbeck (R) shifts to AD-31.  Current AD-80 Janis Ringhand (D) is now here in a lot of new territory.  Ringhand and a Democratic challenger are running for this seat, as are two Republicans.  Likely D pickup.

AD-46:  Incumbent Gary Hebl (D) gets a challenge from a Republican.  Safe D hold.
AD-47:  The old AD-47 represented by Keith Ripp (R) was north of Madison.  The new AD-47 is south of Madison.  Two Democrats and one Republican are running.  Safe D pickup.
AD-48:  Incumbent Chris Taylor (D) will now represent AD-76.  Melissa Sargent (D) will win, although she does have a Libertarian opponent.  Safe D hold.

AD-49:  Incumbent Travis Tranel (R) faces a Republican challenger.  The winner of the primary will face Democrat Carol Beals.  District represented by a Democrat the previous two terms, and in presidential voting is strongly Democratic.  IN PLAY.
AD-50:  Incumbent Ed Brooks (R) faces a previous challengers Democrat and town clerk Sarah Ann Shanahan and Independent Ben Olson.  This districts leans Democratic, but tends to elect Republicans to the Assembly.  This district could pick a Democrat when Brooks retires or under the right circumstances.  Lean R hold.
AD-51:  Two Democrats are running to unseat first term incumbent Howard Marklein (R).  They have a good chance as they are both strong candidates.  This is a Democratic leaning district that was represented by Democrats in the past decade and that picks up Democratic territory.  Likely D pickup.

AD-52:  Incumbent Jeremy Thiesfeldt (R) faces a Democratic challenger.  Safe R hold.
AD-53:  Incumbent Richard Spanbauer (R) is not running for re-election due to too much partisanship.  Three Republicans, including state Treasurer Kurt Schuller, are running for the seat, as are three Democrats.  Safe R hold.
AD-54:  Incumbent Gordon Hintz (D) has a Republican challenger.  Safe D hold.

AD-55:  Incumbent Dean Kaufert (somewhat moderate R) faces a Republican challenger before heading to the general against a Democrat.  Likely R hold, unless Kaufert loses the primary.
AD-56:  Incumbent Michelle Litjens (R) is not running for re-election.  Two Republicans and two Democrats are running.  Safe R hold.
AD-57:  Incumbent Penny Bernard Schaber (D) is running unopposed, although she has to move to stay in the district.  Safe D hold.

AD-58:  Incumbent Pat Strachota (R) is running unopposed.  Safe R hold.
AD-59:  Incumbent Daniel Lemahieu (R) is running unopposed.  Safe R hold.
AD-60:  Duey Stroebel (R) faces a Democratic challenger.  Safe R hold.

Districts 61-66 involve a grand renumbering scheme aimed at the GOP winning 3 of the 6 Assembly seats and one of the two Senate seats.

AD-61:  Incumbent Robert Turner (D) is not running for re-election.  The 61st was an urban Racine area district.  Now, AD-61 is southern and western Kenosha County.  Current area representatives Samantha Kerkman (R) and John Steinbrink (D) are running for this seat.  By the numbers, it is likely to be won by Kerkman.  Likely R pickup.
AD-62:  Old AD-62 was southern Racine County.  New AD-62 is northern Racine County.  Incumbent Cory Mason (D) no longer lives here.  One Republican and two Democrats are running for the seat that is mostly Republican territory.  Likely R pickup.
AD-63:  This is Republican Robin Vos’s seat (R), and he gets to keep his number!  Safe R hold.

AD-64:  Incumbent Minority Leader Peter Barca (D) also get to keep his number.  His is running unopposed in his district that now includes some of Racine County.  Safe D hold.
AD-65:  John Steinbrink (D) is running in the 61st.  Three Democrats are running for this Kenosha-based seat in this highly Democratic area.  Safe D hold.
AD-66:  Samantha Kerkman (R) is running in the 61st also.  Cory Mason will easily pick up Racine-based this seat (high minority population also), as he is the only one running.  Safe D pickup.

AD-67:  Incumbent Tom Larson (R) runs in a district largely unchanged with redistricting.      He has a Democratic opponent.  Safe R hold.
AD-68:  Kathy Bernier (R) is a first-term representative in this district that becomes much more rural with redistricting.  Still, the Democrat Judy Smriga has a reasonable shot as this new district did vote approximately 55% for Obama.  Lean R hold.
AD-69:  Majority Leader Scott Suder (R) has won this district overwhelmingly since he was elected in 1998.  Through redistricting, his district becomes more Democratic by picking up the majority of Marshfield.  Challenger Paul Knoff (D) will be Suder’s biggest competition yet, as Knoff is familiar to the communities of the 69th as a former radio news personality.  Perhaps Suder was a bit too arrogant in this redistricting scheme?  No doubt the Republican big wigs will pour money into this race if there is a possibility of Suder losing.  Lean R hold...  but keep an eye on this one.

AD-70:  Incumbent Amy Sue Vruwink (D) got the bad end of the redistricting mess.  The 70th, once mostly within two counties, now stretches through rural areas of four counties, meandering to the new population base of the district in Monroe County.  Two Republicans are also running for this seat.  This is very much IN PLAY.
AD-71:  Nine candidates have registered as Democrats, and there is one Republican candidate for this seat being vacated by Louis Molepske (D) due to his run for Portage Co. DA.  Whichever Democrat wins the primary will win the general in the Stevens Point based district.  Safe D hold.
AD-72:  Incumbent Scott Krug (R) was able to win against a four decade Democratic incumbent in 2010.  Firefighter Justin Pluess (D) is running to unseat him.  Redistricting costs this district some Democratic area of Adams County.  IN PLAY.

AD-73:  Incumbent Nick Milroy (D) is running unopposed.  Safe D hold.
AD-74.  Incumbent Janet Bewley (D) has a Republican opponent.  Safe D hold.
AD-75:  Incumbent Roger Rivard (R) has a Democratic challenger in this district that usually elects Democrats.  Redistricting resulted in the loss of a little bit of Democratic territory.  Lean R hold.

Musical seats starts yet again....
AD-76:  AD-48 Rep. Chris Taylor (D) is running unopposed.  Safe D hold.
AD-77:  AD-76 Rep. Terese Berceau (D) will be the next AD-77 Rep.  Safe D hold.
AD-78:  AD-77 Rep. Brett Hulsey (D) faces a primary competitor and also a Green Party candidate here.  Safe D hold.

AD-79:  Incumbent Sondy Pope-Roberts (D) is now in AD-80.  Two Democrats are vying for this seat.  Safe D hold.
AD-80:  This one could be interesting.  A Republican, and three Democrats are running for AD-80 currently represented by Janis Ringhand (D) who is running for AD-45.  Joe Wineke, former representative, senator, and Dem. Party Chair and AD-79 Rep. Sondy Pope-Roberts are two of the Democrats running.  Likely D hold.
AD-81:  Kelda Helen Roys (D) is running for Congress.  AD-42 Rep. Fred Clark (D) will face a Republican.  This territory is favorable to his winning.  Safe D hold.

AD-82:  Jeff Stone (R) faces a Democrat.  Safe R hold.
AD-83:  Dave Craig (R) also faces a Democrat.  Safe R hold.
AD-84:  Mike Kuglitsch (R) has a Democratic opponent as well.  Safe R hold.

AD-85:  Incumbent Donna Seidel (D) is not running due to her run for Senate in the recall.  This district is a bit more Democratic after redistricting.  Two Democrats, one Republican, and one Libertarian are running.  The Republican is a popular conservative radio host in the area.  Likely D hold.
AD-86:  Incumbent Jerry Petrowski (R) is headed to the Senate.  Former police officer Dennis Halkoski (D), and two Republicans--a Marshfield Alderman and another guy who  filed at the last minute and lives about a mile up the road (literally) from Petrowski.  Since this is my home district, I may be showing too much optimism here.  Likely D pickup.
AD-87:  Incumbent Mary Williams (R) is running and has a Democratic challenger.  Safe R hold.

AD-88:  One-term incumbent John Klenke (R) faces Democratic attorney Ward Bacon.  The district has a history of choosing both Republican and Democratic reps.  Bacon appears to have some interesting campaign techniques.  TOSSUP.
AD-89:  John Nygren (R) filed enough signatures to run for reelection.  A Democrat is taking him on.  This is John Gard’s old district...   Safe R hold.
AD-90:  Karl Van Roy (R) is not running for reelection.  Two Republicans and a Democrat are running for this seat.  The Democrat seems to be the most Safe candidate.  This district had high Obama numbers, so I am not sure why they have elected Van Roy for so long.  Likely D pickup.

AD-91:  Incumbent Chris Danou (D) is running in AD-92.  This district is now an urban Eau Claire district.  Attorney Dana Wachs (D) is the only candidate running, so he will win.  Safe D hold.
AD-92:  Incumbent Mark Radcliffe (D) is not running.  Chris Danou (D) is the only candidate.  Safe D hold.
AD-93:  Jeff Smith (D) lost this seat to Warren Petryk (R) in 2010.  Smith is attempting to retake the seat in this much more rural, more Republican, 93rd district.  Lean R hold.

AD-94:  Two Republicans are running to unseat Steve Doyle (D).  The district is largely unchanged due to redistricting.  Likely D hold.
AD-95:  Incumbent Jill Billings (D) is running unopposed for this urban LaCrosse district.  Safe D hold.
AD-96:  Incumbent Lee Nerison (R) has a Democratic competitor in disabled veteran Tom Johnson.  In an open race, a Democrat would have a 50/50 shot in this district.  Nerison did vote against Walker’s budget repair bill.  Lean R hold, but this is one to watch, particularly later in the decade.

AD-97:  Bill Kramer (R) has a Democratic competitor.  Believe it or not, there are parts of the city of Waukesha that can vote Democratic in some elections.  Those were located in what was an 97th district comprised mostly of the city of Waukesha.  Redistricting has protected this district for Kramer by splitting Waukesha between AD-97 and AD-98.  The 97th contains only the southern part of Waukesha and then meanders through more rural territory toward Mukwonago.  Safe R hold.
AD-98:  Paul Farrow (R) has a Democratic competitor.  Safe R hold.
AD-99:  Don Pridemore (R) is running in AD-22.  AD-33 Rep. Chris Kapenga (R) is running here, as is a Democrat.  Safe R hold.

Mon Aug 13, 2012 at 10:20 PM PT: Will be looking to update the ratings here after this week's primary.  Anything to take into account that has not already been commented on?

Originally posted to CentralWIGuy on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 07:40 PM PDT.

Also republished by Badger State Progressive, ClassWarfare Newsletter: WallStreet VS Working Class Global Occupy movement, Progressive Hippie, and German American Friendship Group.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Thanks a lot for this. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PvtJarHead, Lujane, WI Deadhead

    I don't think anyone has ever done a good analysis of the Assembly districts.  Fortunately, Dane County is growing fast and the SW region of WI is moving Dem.

    What is your view of the Senate race in Holperin's district?

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 08:03:16 PM PDT

  •  Is it also possible (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lujane

    for Democrats to win the Assembly later in the decade in a wave year?

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 08:03:54 PM PDT

    •  I would say so (8+ / 0-)

      Obama still won 60+ of the redistricted Assembly seats, so in a true wave election, absolutely.  It would be tough absent such a wave, however.  

      Also, I'd point out that Obama and/or Doyle both won the following Assembly Districts, which your analysis shows as being likely or safe GOP.  Depending on the strength of the candidates, they could very well be safe seats this time around but could be competitive later in the decade.  

      Districts that just Obama won:

      2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 21, 27, 31, 34, 36, 37, 40, 41, 42, 55, 89,

      Districts that just Doyle won:

      28

      Districts that both Obama and Doyle won:

      1, 29 (Kerry even won the 29th), 30, 50, 67, 68 (Kerry also won it), 69, 75, 87, 93, 96 (Kerry also won)

      I also have to separate out the new 43rd district.  Not only did Obama and Doyle win here, but so did Kerry and even Barrett.  So I think Jorgensen actually beats Wynn fairly easily.  

      Also regarding your comment about the 90th district and why they elected Van Roy so long.  Partly because he was known as being a moderate, and partly because the new 90th was basically drawn to be a Democratic vote sink.  If you look carefully at the new 90th and the old 90th, you will see that the more Republican parts of the 90th were given to the 89th and the 4th district to make them safer GOP seats.  

      Clearly the path back to a majority (or at least something close to it) is going to run through Western Wisconsin, and the Fox Valley, in that order.

      While I am in favor of having candidates for as many districts as possible, realistically any seat in SE Wisconsin that we do not have after 2012, we are not going to pick it up any time soon and if we do, we probably already are headed towards 65-70 seats anyway.  SE Wisconsin districts are drawn to be much more polarized than the outstate districts.  

  •  Re: AD-78 (0+ / 0-)

    Is Ben Manski the Green Party candidate? If so, I'd rate this seat as Likely D rather than Safe D. While Hulsey has been more progressive than I expected him to be, there are a lot of people here who still call him a Conservadem for some odd reason. Manski is a serious candidate and a decent campaigner, and the increased polarization since 2010 probably helps him.

    As for a Republican winning this seat, it won't happen. Even 34% is more than a Republican can manage in a Madison district.

    Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

    by fearlessfred14 on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 08:30:29 PM PDT

    •  Dedering (0+ / 0-)

      Jonathon Dedering is the Green Party candidate.

      Citizen from WI-07 (Marathon County)

      by CentralWIGuy on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 08:54:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  There isn't a Republican running vs. Hulsey (0+ / 0-)

      The general election will be Hulsey (or Fisher) vs. Dedering, who doesn't even live in the district.  

      I think it would have been fun to see Manski run against Taylor for the new Isthmus district.  

      •  For a long time Segway Jeremy Ryan was running (0+ / 0-)

        as an independent in Taylor's new seat, but he ended up not filing the papers for some reason. If you've been down to the Madison protests, he was the guy who was always on a Segway and getting arrested for protesting in committee hearings and in the chambers.

        You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

        by Gpack3 on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 11:57:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Tipped, Recced, Hotlisted, and.... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    We Won, kideni

    Republished to Badger State Progressive.

    There's a lot of work to be done between now and November.  We need to focus our momentum from the recall effort behind ALL of our Democratic candidates for November.  We have less than 5 months and no time to waste.

    This list will be an invaluable resource in the coming months.  Thank you very much for the hard work researching this.

    "Ich bin ein Dachs!"

    by PvtJarHead on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 08:33:46 PM PDT

  •  Also (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    If anyone wants my spreadsheet with Kerry, Doyle, Obama, and Barrett percentages send me a Kos message with your e-mail address and I will try to get it to you.  

    This data is also available on the GAB website here:  http://legis.wisconsin.gov/...

    Every statewide race going back to 2002 is on that spreadsheet.  For the spreadsheet that I would send you, I cleaned it up by deleting everything except 2004 and 2008 presidential and 2006 and 2010 governor, and then added formulas to get vote totals in each Assembly district.  

    I also eyeballed the Senate races.  Bottom line for 2012:  the open 12th (Holperin) is probably a lost cause.  The 30th is probably going to be an easier than expected D hold with Hansen.  So we are almost certainly going to lose the majority but if we can at least keep the 18th district, then everything at least has to go through Dale Schultz.

  •  Tipped and rec'd for doing all that work (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, We Won, PvtJarHead

    I wrote something similar about the state of WA legislature a few years ago. I created a spreadsheet and was mostly right about most districts, but missed a few. But it's a ton of work, trying to look at every district. I tip my hat to you.

    But the angle said to them, "Do not be Alfred. A sailor has been born to you"

    by Dbug on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 09:49:42 PM PDT

  •  I live in the 53rd and it is by no means (5+ / 0-)

    a safe R seat. The retiring Republican, Richard Spanbauer, is a moderate who voted against Walker's union-busting bill. He is retiring because the local teabaggers have disowned him and would have primaried him hard.

    The governor and his toadies are very unpopular here. We already booted our State Senator, Randy Hopper. Spanbauer went against his party because his constituents were breathing fire over the ALEC agenda.

    As of now, it's a very unsafe R seat and I predict it will go blue in November.

    I started with nothing and still have most of it left. - Seasick Steve

    by ruleoflaw on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 10:25:46 PM PDT

  •  Too pessimistic by half. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, ArkDem14

    I'll echo ajwagner above. A lot of these so-called safe R seats went for Obama and/or Doyle. If we have a wave election, we could win more. If Walker's indicted, the table is reset.

    And as someone who's working on one of those races, you might at least add the names of the Dems running in some of those races! (A little more work, I know...)

  •  Pretty Good Analysis Here (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CentralWIGuy

    I don't know enough about a lot of the districts in some places of the state, but I can tell you that the Klenke seat (88) is a safe R.  Under redistricting, the seat went from about a 50-50 seat to a 60% Republican seat.  In exchange, they took the adjoining Van Roy (who was retiring anyway) seat (90) from a 50-50 seat to a 60% Dem seat.  So instead of having two 50-50 seats, they made 88 a safe Republican seat and the 90 a safe Dem seat.

    My prediction is the Republicans come back with 56 seats (net -3).

    •  New 88th is not 60% Republican. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fearlessfred14

      According to the data from the GAB, which I have referenced in my other comments, Barrett got 44% of the vote in 2010, Obama got 54.6%, and Doyle got 48.9%.  

      Now, if there has been a real lasting shift in the leanings of Green Bay, and all elections going forward are going to look more like 2010 than 2006 or 2008, then it might be a safe R seat.  Otherwise it should be winnable.

      •  I've Seen the Numbers the Republicans Used... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn

        for redistricting.  Going back to 2000, the new 88th is 60% Republican.  They took out of the worst parts of the old district (the near east side of GB) and put it in the 90th.  They added suburban areas from the 1st SD.  That's why the only Dems fielded a token candidate at the last minute.  Ward Bacon?  LOL  Nice name.  The Dems and Reps I've talked to don't consider the seat in play at all.

  •  Great work (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn

    Living in Wauwatosa, it especially sucks both what was done at the Senate and at the Assembly level.  I can understand the Senate district shifting west due to population loss, but they just tore up the Assembly districts by just dividing them East-West instead of having a Brookfield, a Wauwatosa, and a West Allis seat.

    But yeah, this map sucks.  Holding the Senate is going to be tough and in 2014, Lehman is a guaranteed loss while we almost need to depend on Ellis and Schultz retiring.  We almost need an Obama wave to get back to majority, especially given how the Fox Valley seems to return to its Republican past.

    All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently WI-05 (Home), recent Cornell University ILR Class of 2012 graduate.

    by glame on Mon Jun 18, 2012 at 12:20:57 PM PDT

  •  A few corrections and comments (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    AD57: Rep. Bernard Schaber does not need to move into her new district.

    AD61: You're being a bit pessimistic. The Democrat, Rep. John Steinbrink is also the Pleasant Prairie village president and has a good shot at holding this seat.

    AD67: This is at least a Lean R, if not a tossup.

    AD 68: Kathy Bernier is a weak incumbent and is facing a strong challenge. This is a tossup.

    AD 93: Way too pessimistic on this. I'd say it's Lean R at worst.

    You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

    by Gpack3 on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 12:03:45 PM PDT

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