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Leading Off:

IN-Sen: Oh boy. Mega-problem time for Republican Senate nominee Richard Mourdock:

Of particular interest to the candidate is a mandate that requires an employer to pay for certain services they may be morally opposed to—such as birth control—which Mourdock said he opposes.

But is that fair to the consumer, who may want their birth control covered?

Mourdock's example was an employer who decided to cover everything but cancer.

"Does that employer have the right to do it? I would say yes they do if they want to keep their health care costs down but it also means it's less likely you're going to want to work here. If that employer wants to get the best employees coming in the door he's going to offer the best insurance possible."

Yep, you read that right. Mourdock thinks employers should be able to deny healthcare coverage for cancer treatment. And his campaign obviously doesn't know how to deal with this serious screwup. At first, they refused to respond altogether. Then Mourdock decided to dig in deeper—way deeper. Careful, though, and watch what he's trying to do:
"Simply put, Richard was making the point that a company that discontinued insurance coverage of life-threatening ailments would immediately become an unattractive place to work," Conner told TPM. "In no way, shape or form does Richard support companies discontinuing such insurance coverage, and any attempt to say otherwise is a complete falsehood."
The question isn't whether Mourdock would support a company which denied its employees from receiving insurance coverage for cancer treatment. The issue is whether he supports their right to do so—and he most certainly still does. He's also damn right that any company which did so would "become an unattractive place to work"—but guess what? Countless Americans hold down jobs at awful companies because they have no other choice. So while Mourdock fantasizes, Mitt Romney-style, that such awful companies would quickly drive their employees elsewhere, reality dictates that if employers start treating their workers like shit, workers pretty much just have to take it.

Senate:

CT-Sen: In a way, this is kind of amazing, but in a way, it's also not surprising in the least. After a debate late last week, ex-Rep. Chris Shays admitted that, at least as of right now, his campaign doesn't have money to air TV ads ahead of the Republican primary, which is just two months away. With rival Linda McMahon carpet-bombing the airwaves thanks to her bottomless personal wealth, I can see how Shays just doesn't have the resources needed to break through. But the remarkable part is that Shays said this out loud, because it's the kind of revelation that will make his remaining supporters very nervous, particularly given his deep hole in public polling.

Not long ago, I'd have called this good news for Democrats, since Shays had always appeared to be far more electable than McMahon. But McMahon's recent television efforts have paid off and put her in a better position not only in the primary but also in the general. And now it seems that Shays doesn't even have enough dough to lay some negative attacks on McMahon to soften her up for November, so I'm going to call this an unfortunate turn of events—and a lesson in "when you should shut up on the campaign trail."

ME-Sen: The first post-primary poll of the Maine Senate race predictably shows independent ex-Gov. Angus King crushing the field, with a 27-point lead over his nearest rival, Republican SoS Charlie Summers (50-23). Click through for all the numbers and our analysis at Daily Kos Elections.

MT-Sen: Ah, nothing like some good black helicopter fantasies out in Big Sky country.

It was a blood-boiler of a story, a menacing tale of government gone too far: The Environmental Protection Agency was spying on Midwestern farmers with the same aerial "drones" used to kill terrorists overseas.

This month, the idea has been repeated in TV segments, on multiple blogs and by at least four congressmen. The only trouble is, it isn't true.

It was never true. The EPA isn't using drone aircraft—in the Midwest or anywhere else.

And GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg got caught repeating this latest lunatic bullshit:
"The Obama Administration has, once again, stepped way over the line," Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) said in a news release. He was sending a letter to the EPA, responding to "reports" about drone use. "First they wanted to expand their authority to regulate water, and now they want to use air drones to spy on American citizens."
Meanwhile, the DSCC's latest ad buys seem to be following a new trend. Like they did last week in Indiana, the DSCC is sending money to the Montana Democratic Party for the purposes of airing an attack ad against Republican Denny Rehberg. In Indiana, this technique supposedly allowed the committee to take advantage of cheaper media prices that were only available to in-state buyers.

It's not clear whether the same can be said for their Montana buy, but note that the ad, which paints Rehberg as a pawn of Wall Street, curiously contains 501(c)-style language ("contact Dennis Rehberg and remind him: he's Montana's congressman—not Washington's or Wall Street's"). I'm not sure why the MDP would need to include that type of language in their ad, but perhaps rules exist in the state to give media buyers a better rate if the "public interest"/"issue advocacy" card is played. (David Nir & James L)

ND-Sen: In a new ad where she talks directly to camera the entire time, Democrat Heidi Heitkamp tries to turn attacks on her support for the Affordable Care Act into a positive—and I think she does a good job of it. She references her fight with breast cancer 12 years ago (which in fact derailed her promising bid for governor) and says "there's good and bad in the healthcare law, and it needs to be fixed." But she then pivots and attacks GOP Rep. Rick Berg, who "voted to go back, to letting insurance companies deny coverage to kids, or for pre-existing conditions." Concludes Heitkamp: "I don't ever want to go back to those days."

VA-Sen: The political mixicologists at Majority PAC are out with a new TV spot in Virginia that's one part negative to one part positive. The first half of the ad targets ex-Sen. George Allen's record in Congress, claiming that Allen "turned the largest budget surplus into a massive federal deficit," "voted to weaken Medicare," and "gave tax breaks to companies who shipped jobs overseas." These sour tones are topped with 15 seconds of praise for Tim Kaine's pro-business tenure as governor. (James L)

WI-Sen: It seems like Monday was just chock-a-block with stories about Republican Senate candidates saying stupid things (see Richard Mourdock and Denny Rehberg above). Here's Wisconsin's Eric Hovde:

"I see a reporter here. I just pray that you start writing about these issues. I just pray. Stop always writing about, 'Oh, the person couldn't get, you know, their food stamps or this or that.' You know, I saw something the other day—it's like, another sob story, and I'm like, 'But what about what's happening to the country and the country as a whole?' That's going to devastate everybody."
Gubernatorial:

NH-Gov: Democrat Jackie Cilley just earned the endorsement of New Hampshire's State Employees Association, an SEIU affiliate that is the state's largest union, representing 12,000 government employees. The SEA's president specifically cited Cilley's stance against the corrosive, anti-tax "pledge" most state politicians swear fealty to as a key reason for supporting her.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Republican front-runner Ovide Lamontagne teased his fundraising numbers, even though initial reports are not due until (remarkably) Aug. 22nd. Lamontagne says he's raised $910K from over 1,500 donors. He also says he as "well over a half-million dollars" in cash-on-hand.

House:

AZ-08/AZ-02: Martha McSally was never going to be cheering loudest for Jesse Kelly, her fellow Republican, to win the special election against Ron Barber; after all, a Kelly victory would all but end her chances of running again in November. Now with Kelly out of the picture (he dropped out of the regular election after losing last week), McSally is the probable GOP nominee. But did she go so far as to try and help this situation come about? Barber's camp is claiming that she did—that an aide of hers, Sam Stone, tried to offer unsolicited advice to a Barber staffer about how to beat Kelly.

Stone of course denied doing so, but Barber's campaign showed Politico a business card Stone allegedly handed one of their folks, with some tips scrawled on the back. Amusingly, Stone claims to have seen Republican polling which showed Barber down 3% not long before election day—Barber won by six. (By the way, can anyone make out the final two words? Music man? WTF?) Just a very strange story... and what a ham-handed way for Stone to try to influence Barber's people.

HI-02: This is pretty interesting. Honolulu Civil Beat conducted not one but two polls of the Democratic primary in the open 2nd District congressional race, and why? Because the first set of numbers they got were so surprising they had a hard time believing them, so they decided to go into the field a second time. But the results checked out, because the second poll came back with very similar data.

So, what did they learn? In the first survey, conducted June 5 to 7, Civil Beat's pollster, Merriman River, found Honolulu City Council member Tulsi Gabbard improbably beating former Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann by a 35-31 margin, with attorney Bob Marx at 11 and former state government official Esther Kiaaina at 10. If you've been following the polling in this race, you know why these numbers were so startling, but Civil Beat helpfully summarizes:

When he first announced his candidacy last August, Hannemann touted a 66-to-11 edge over Gabbard. In early February, he released new internal polling numbers showing a 57 percent to 15 percent lead. Both of his surveys were conducted by QMark Research.

More importantly, an independent poll conducted by Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now in late January and early February found Hannemann with 65 percent support versus 20 percent for Gabbard.

The second survey was in the field on June 13 and 14, and it tested a much larger sample (685 likely primary voters vs. 340 the first time). This time, Hannemann was at 34 and Gabbard at 33 (with Marx and Kiaaina both at 10)—very similar to the initial batch of results, and importantly, once again showing the race a tossup. It certainly looked like Hannemann was going to cruise here, but that's apparently no longer the case.

Civil Beat's writeup goes deep into a variety of topical questions and geographic crosstabs trying to explain what's changed, but they leave out what might be the biggest factor: The veterans organization VoteVets has spent $120K on an ad touting Gabbard, a positive spot aimed at boosting her name recognition. Hannemann's been on the air, too, thought it's not clear how much he's spent. However, name rec was never his problem; as mayor, he represented more people than actually even live in this congressional district. Anyhow, I'll be curious to see if he responds with an internal of his own—or whether, in fact, we really have a race on our hands here.

MN-08: Former state Sen. Tarryl Clark is out with her first TV ad of the race, two months ahead of the Democratic primary. (She'd previously been up on radio.) Clark attacks "giving tax breaks to companies who move Minnesota jobs overseas" and says she wants to protect Medicare and Social Security. When asked directly, Clark's campaign refused to detail the size of the buy.

ND-AL: Democrat Pam Gulleson has a largely positive (and pretty bland) radio spot out, about her life on the farm, where "everybody pitches in to get it all done," unlike in Washington.

SC-07: While the Democratic runoff remains in limbo, round two of the GOP contest to pick a nominee is very much underway. André Bauer's newest ad attacks rival Tom Rice as a "moderate" who failed to support Sen. Jim DeMint (a conservative beacon) and backs a gas tax hike. (There appear to be two somewhat different versions at the link.) Meanwhile, some of the also-rans have issued endorsements: Both fourth-place finisher Chad Prosser and sixth-place finisher Randal Wallace have gotten behind Rice. But the guy who landed in third, Jay Jordan, apparently hasn't made up his mind yet.

Grab Bag:

Massachusetts: Our own Benawu managed to dig up those missing candidate filing lists from the Bay State. There's one page for Democrats and one for Republicans.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Rubio not being vetted? (5+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:04:55 AM PDT

    •  Doesn't Matter (8+ / 0-)

      He wasn't a great option for them anyway and never was IMO. He's too scandal prone, will outshine the nominee especially on the right, and isn't particularly tested. The only benefit he had was the ability to connect with Hispanics (his surname could actually have made a difference according to DeFrancesco-Soto's dissertation) and that was just ripped away by the Obama policy change.

      22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

      by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:13:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  State scandals would be the reason (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, MichaelNY

        Even with the immigration decision, having a Latino on the ticket would probably give Romney a modest boost with that group.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:19:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah (3+ / 0-)

          The question is this: does the recent immigration decision force Romney to put a Hispanic on the ticket to counteract their increased support for him on the policy change?

          If so, support simply goes back to where it was (if even that: the increase in Obama support probably drastically outweighs any electoral benefit that comes with a Hispanic nominee) which is still a HUGE lead for Obama.

          If it does force Romney to pick a Hispanic running mate, my guess is Fortuno, not Martinez. Fortuno has national connections and is tested, he's definitely conservative, and he also happens to be from a swingier (definitely Dem dominated, but less so that Mexicans and others) Hispanic subgroup that is disproportionately located in a swing state which Romney needs in order to win.

          Picking someone with a Hispanic surname (again, see DeFrancesco-Soto's dissertation) will also help slightly in Colorado and Nevada.

          By the way, don't you love that we don't have to worry about New Mexico anymore? So nice.

          22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

          by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:26:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  for Obama* (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            historys mysteries

            increased support for Obama* in that first paragraph.

            22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

            by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:27:16 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I think he'll pick someone from one of the 50 (7+ / 0-)

            states.  I can just hear the howling from the Dobbesian right-wingers if he picked a Latino from a territory.

            “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

            by Paleo on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:32:23 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  On the Howling (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              historys mysteries, Jerry J

              I don't think it matters. Those people are going to vote for Romney come hell or high water because they view their vote not in the affirmative but as a protest against Obama. It doesn't matter who the VP nominee is. Romney will pick anyone provided that that person gives him the best electoral math possible.

              22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

              by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:34:55 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The anti-immigration crowd is more prone to walk (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike, MichaelNY, Sherri in TX, askew

                than the economic and social conservatives.

                “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

                by Paleo on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:38:56 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Doubt It (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  historys mysteries

                  I honestly doubt that these people would walk. Another great thing about Fortuno being Puerto Rican is that he's a type of Hispanic (I loathe having to use phrases like, by the way, "type of" this or that) that is only tangentially related to immigration. Puerto Ricans are Americans, not immigrants. This shields him somewhat from anger, while still reaping the benefits of a spanish surname.

                  22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

                  by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:41:23 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Also (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    historys mysteries, A Runner

                    The anti-immigrant crowd is disproportionately located in states that Romney is guaranteed to win anyway. The only state fathomable that anti-immigrant low turnout could hurt Romney is Arizona, and even then that's a tough haul for Obama to seal the deal.

                    22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

                    by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:42:37 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

            •  I hear (0+ / 0-)

              Chris Crisco aka Chris Christie is a possibility.

              h/t to Bill Maher for the Crisco joke.

              MItt's general campaign strategy is to trade in the etch-a-sketch for a magic 8 ball.

              by jackandjill on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:02:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  health issues (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                askew

                Chris Christie is quite obese. He seems to have difficulty walking any distance. The rigors of a national campaign probably would be too much for him.

                "Well Clarice, have the lambs stopped screaming?"

                by buffie on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:33:57 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  I think ZERO boost outside Florida, and... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, TofG

          ...even there, not much boost.

          I think he'd do well at ginning up Cuban-American turnout in Florida, but then that turnout already is very high as a rule so any marginal gain is very small.

          He might or might not boost Romney's vote share with non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida.

          But outside Florida, he's useless and gains Romney nothing with Hispanics.

          Coupled with Rubio's own ethics history that would be litigated anew in the press, and the fact he would overshadow Romney, he's ultimately less than meets the eye.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:32:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Does picking Rubio go hand in hand with increased (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            outreach to all Hispanic groups? If so, that could make the difference, but then, is it necessary to pick Rubio to do the same outreach? I don't think so.

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:45:30 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Lip service (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

              He has done zero outreach so far. No ads aimed at the Hispanic demographic beyond Spanish translation versions of everything being run.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 09:04:07 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  So while picking Rubio might make some difference, (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                it's not likely to make that much of a difference, seeing as how he's not going beyond the political ad equivalent of using Google Translate.

                Which is, if true (and I trust your knowledge), kind of nuts. I get that there's no one particular path to 270, but if he's able to pick up Florida, Colorado, and New Mexico, Obama wins. New Mexico looks easy, Colorado looks more likely than not, and Florida is probably much easier than many think, assuming Obama's white support doesn't collapse and is only being made easier by effectively not competing for the non-white vote. And this is before you factor in how much he has expanded the map through states like North Carolina and Virginia.

                I wonder if this is a sign he's not doing all that much outreach to any group, beyond the usual meet and greet crap. Is his campaign trying to build an infrastructure to compete with Obama, even if he's behind now?

                Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                by bjssp on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 10:08:33 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  And He's Had More Than Two Months..... (12+ / 0-)

        ....to produce the "GOP version of the Dream Act" that Romney requested but apparently sat on his hands the entire time, only to get upstaged to the point of humiliation by Obama and having to drop the entire time.  Not exactly showing himself to be sufficiently motivated.

      •  Rubio would have been a terrible VP candidate (7+ / 0-)

        He's Cuban. They're incredibly different culturally from every single other Latino group.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 06:18:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  And, Rubio is a Cuban-American, not "Hispanic" (0+ / 0-)

        For Hispanics, it appears (and perhaps also for Cuban-Americans), there are differences. Important ones. So it's not at all clear that Rubio = hispanic support.

        Obama and strong Democratic majorities in 2012!

        by TRPChicago on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 06:47:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  What does DeFrancesco-Soto's dissertation say? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        And just who the hell is/are DeFrancesco-Soto?

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:42:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Vicki DeFransceso-Soto (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          She's a visiting professor at UT at the moment and she's also an MSNBC pundit.

          http://drvmds.com/

          She's an expert in latino politics.

          Basically, she found that Mexican Americans are likely to vote for someone they perceived to be co-ethnic on the basis of the surname alone. Puerto Ricans were also likely to change their vote choice for the same lines, but less so than Mexicans. Cubans, however, were impervious to the same.

          22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

          by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:48:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Okay, thanks for that. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Now, off the top of your head, do you know how much of an effect there is, according to her?

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:51:10 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sure, Off the top of my head (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I skimmed the .pdf for a few minutes but can't find the relevant chart (its very dense work, I'd have to read through the entire thing again). For Mexican Americans it was something like 3-4% and Puerto Ricans like 2-3%.

              22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

              by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 09:06:38 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Hmm, I wonder how that translates into (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sapelcovits

                the overall total. My guess is, it doesn't make a big difference.

                Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                by bjssp on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 10:11:10 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  No (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  It doesn't make a big difference at all. But it does make some.

                  22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

                  by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 10:14:06 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Well, what's SOME difference? (0+ / 0-)

                    I don't mean to sound like a dick here, but we're talking about votes here that could, in a close race, make the difference between victory and defeat.

                    Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                    by bjssp on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 11:52:57 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I.E. (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, tietack

                      1-2% of the overall vote could be changed based on Hispanic surname. That's in addition to the standard 1-2% (gain or lose) that can be changed just simply on the vice presidential choice in general. So, potentially, picking a Hispanic could produce anywhere from losing 1% to gaining 4%.

                      22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

                      by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 12:03:38 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

            •  Pete Dominici was first elected NM-Sen (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              if I remember my reading right, he got a majority of Hispanic votes against Jack Daniels... I'd swear that I and NMLib talked about that a bit back on SSP.

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 06:38:20 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Romney is working a Rustbelt Strategy (9+ / 0-)

      Pawlenty or Portman seem to be the only logical picks given his focus on the great lakes region.

    •  who knows what is true (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      I don't think Rubio will be chosen in the end for a plethora of reasons but stories like these are written to throw people off. The only contributors are people who think they know what's going on but really don't know. And articles like these will get written so it's more of a "surprise" when Rubio is chosen (again, I don't think he will be but I think he'll get vetted if only so Romney can make it seem like he really considered Rubio). So if Rubio is chosen the media can write the "bombshell/shocking" news narrative in a few months and it will be written like that because they'll wrote past stories such as these that said he had been written off. All the while, he never really was written off and there's no true evidence behind this story.

      •  I wonder if we will have more of an idea who the (0+ / 0-)

        pick is earlier this year. There's only so much they can do without literally following people, but if they can, would they be so cutthroat to release the information ahead of time, thereby denying Romney some momentum due to the announcement goes?

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 09:05:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Your tagline is so correct... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ....we barely made it through the last period trying every gottdamned thing he wants to do.....

      Incredible how we now have numbers/stats (ie: real facts....ten fucking years of econ data) to tell us how this sack of garbage that masquerades badly as econ policy does not work...and yet.....

      Aldus Shrugged : The antidote to Ayn Rand.

      by Floyd Blue on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:30:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Voters support Obama's immigration decision (15+ / 0-)

    by more than 2-1.

    Sixty-four percent of likely voters surveyed after Obama’s June 15 announcement said they agreed with the policy, while 30 percent said they disagreed. Independents backed the decision by better than a two-to-one margin.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:07:20 AM PDT

  •  Presidential news: (13+ / 0-)

    A) Rubio not being vetted: http://abcnews.go.com/...

    B) Obama camp releases Spanish-language ad in Florida, Nevada, and Colorado spoken by recent endorser Christine Saralegui:
    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    C) Finally, likely voters favor immigration exec order 64%-30%:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/...

    It turns out that this is more of a pitfall for Romney than thought:
    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:08:34 AM PDT

    •  Wow (4+ / 0-)

      I saw the data on the executive order (which is great), but I didn't see that the endorsement by Saralegui was being used as an ad (which is even MORE great). What wonderful timing! Perhaps they could use her in an ad showcasing the policy change?

      22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

      by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:10:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Furthermore (5+ / 0-)

        It is really great seeing that the Democrats are not taking the Hispanic vote lightly. The fact that we are openly trying to compete for their votes while the Republicans have alternated between being openly hostile toward their interests and simply not caring (with the exception of McCain who alternates between three options: those two plus actually trying to find a solution...) could set in Hispanics as a generation long Democratic constituency.

        22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

        by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:18:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Nitpickery (7+ / 0-)

        It wasn't an executive order but a cabinet-level directive.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 06:21:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It's not an executive order (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        I realize this is minutia to most people, but political reporters and junkies everywhere are getting this wrong.

        There is no executive order.

        This is a Cabinet-level directive by DHS.

        An executive order is a specific type of written policy document issued by a President to announce a new policy that usually is government-wide.

        This isn't government-wide, so no surprise an E.O. isn't the vehicle used.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:29:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  FWIW, TPaw rising fast on Intrade (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, historys mysteries

      Hard for me to see Romney picking a guy with no DC experience.  That TPaw converted from Roman Catholicism also might not fit Romney's focus on winning that group.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:15:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Is Obama campaign saving ammo? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      historys mysteries, TofG

      For closer to the GE on Romney's primary immigration stances?  Where is the self-deport language, attacking Perry for instate DREAM Act, Perry calling Romney heartless, Romney saying he's veto DREAM Act etc?  He seems to be etch-a-sketching pretty well on this and being treated as a right of center moderate.  Where is tying him to Kobach?

      •  Patience please (8+ / 0-)

        These folks know how to run a campaign. Remember when candidate Obama looked sunk and gave his speech on race? He might lose, but it won't be because of lousy strategy. All in due time. And yes, he is undoubtedly saving some ammo for later.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 06:50:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Um, further, Obama is attacking Romney hard... (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, wwmiv, TofG, itskevin, askew

          ...on immigration and other matters in Hispanic-targeted ads.

          The barrage against Mitt with Hispanics is brutal and, just as importantly, completely unchallenged.  Mitt's not trying to fight back at all.

          And not everything junkies are aware of makes for a good ad.  For example, Kobach has zero name recognition with ordinary voters, including many ordinary Hispanic voters.  It's best just to pin the same policies on Mitt, and not waste time mentioning Kobach.

          It's emerging that Mitt is going to try to win this whole thing with a whites-only majority.  He's going to try to get Reagan-like white supermajorities, and relying almost completely on that.

          I don't think Mitt can get 64/65% of the white vote.  He can get to 60, not a lock but a plausible shot at that.  But almost 2-to-1?...I don't think so.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:07:38 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Cederico, DCCyclone

            and even alot of junkies dont know who Kobach is... I'm a good example of one.

            This is definitely right on the math. Obama has to sink below 38% of whites in order to lose.

            That'd be a monumental loss among whites for a Democrat that only happens in a landslide. Since 1980 only Carter (36%) and Mondale (35%) sank below 38%. Even Dukakis got 40%. Clinton got 39% and 43% while Gore got 42% and Kerry 41%. Obama got 43%. I can easily see him going to to 39-40%, but not lower than that.

            http://elections.nytimes.com/...

            22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

            by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:14:29 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Took me about a minute there (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            to remember who Kobach is!

          •  Who is talking about 65 percent of the white vote? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I haven't seen anybody suggest Romney would get that much.

            If Obama is getting 40 percent of the white vote nationwide, he's almost certainly winning. Fortunately, that seems more than doable, if not downplaying his chances some.

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 09:08:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  John Ellis at RCP (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 09:11:01 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  And is he credible? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I stopped checking RCP a long time ago.

                Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                by bjssp on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 10:13:38 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  He wasn't actually claiming that Romney could get there, just that Romney had to get there in order to win. In fact, he called it a tall order in a few different ways.

                  His math was very good and generally correct.

                  22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

                  by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 10:16:27 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  If that's the main way Romney can win, he (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    wwmiv, MichaelNY

                    might not be able to win at all, unless the state-by-state numbers do not line up nicely to the national numbers.

                    Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                    by bjssp on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 11:54:14 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  No, he's not credible (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  He did his own electoral college projection and pretty much has Mitt running the table.  He's a Republican and buys all the GOP happy spin, and is completely out of touch with reality.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 01:23:59 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  Two Things (10+ / 0-)

    1) On the DKE discussion over the weekend about minority, specifically Hispanic, voting trends and the opposite trends among white voters stemming from Sean Trende:

    Apparently we have no reason to worry about increased racial polarization outside the south. According to Bartels, the white working class defined both by income and education has actually become more Democratic over the last 30 years outside the South. The entire trend away from the Democrats among the white working class is driven by the huge trend away from Democrats in the south among whites overall.

    http://www.princeton.edu/...
    http://www.princeton.edu/...

    2) On the future politics of the new Obama policy:

    http://www.politico.com/...

    Politico doesn't often feature good analysis, but this is damn near top notch. I think an addendum is needed, however, in that if Obama is reelected any successor - either Democratic or Republican - is unlikely at that point to remove that policy. The passage of four more years will have cemented Hispanic's electoral importance even further. Democrats won't repeal the policy because they support it. Republican can't repeal the policy because it'd be electoral suicide at that later date. Romney could, but I doubt he'd want to as it could cement Hispanics as a Democratic constituency for decades (and perhaps even at a level more akin to the Jewish minority than the mid-60s they give us right now).

    22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

    by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:08:40 AM PDT

  •  AZ-08: Here's some electoral eye candy! (4+ / 0-)

    A rundown on how each precinct went in the special election:
    http://azstarnet.com/...

    And here's a zoom-in on the Tucson metro area:
    http://azstarnet.com/...

    CD-08, in becoming CD-02, will lose Saddlebrooke (in Pinal County), Republican Marana, light red Oro Valley, its Santa Cruz precincts, but will gain a larger portion of Tucson.

    Furthermore:
    http://azstarnet.com/...

    Jesse Kelly won the exact same precincts that he won in 2010, but by a lower margin than then.  Conversely, Barber did better in the precincts that Kelly lost.

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:17:43 AM PDT

    •  AZ-08: Reagan's "11th Commandment" - (6+ / 0-)

      "Thou shall not speak ill of a fellow Republican".

      I guess Reagan should added a 12 Commandment - "And don't try to tell Democrats how to defeat your fellow Republican".

      - Not that McSally's help was needed,

      David Koch, a teacher and a Tea Partier sit down a table with a plate of a dozen cookies. Koch quickly stuffs 11 cookies in his pockets, leans to the bagger and says "watch out, the union thug will try to steal your cookie".

      by Dave in AZ on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 06:28:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      The Sec of State and County Data had no zoom in of Tucson.... Really annoying. Finally a better map!

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

      by CF of Aus on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 06:32:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Michael Bloomberg prefers Romney (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    but says he won't endorse due to Romney's social stances.
    http://www.slate.com/...
    Not a big surprise. If only this would end media speculation on Bloomberg's endorsement.

    27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

    by bumiputera on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 05:33:12 AM PDT

  •  NC Gov Perdue - Blunder (3+ / 0-)

    Road money and politics - what could possibly go wrong?

    Gov. Bev Perdue’s staff drafted a pair of false letters (to the legislature) last week in an effort to start the flow of money for two major toll road projects

    The documents indicate that Perdue herself was involved in the issue, which concerns a budget debate over $63 million in start-up money for the Garden Parkway, a highway project near Charlotte, and a planned bridge to the northern Outer Banks known as the Mid-Currituck Bridge.

    The letters were rushed to legislators Thursday morning over the signature of Jim Trogdon, chief operating officer of the state Department of Transportation. Trogdon disavowed the letters and retracted them Thursday afternoon.

    http://www.newsobserver.com/...

    It sure looks like Perdue is doing her best to get Pat McCrory elected governor.

    NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

    by bear83 on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 06:16:29 AM PDT

    •  I agree.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83

      The Walter Dalton ads are atrocious, though, while the McRory ads are slick and well produced.  McRory is, I fear,a Trojan Horse,  a seeming moderate who has the backing of the extreme conservatives.

      Sunlight is the best disinfectant

      by historys mysteries on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:10:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My fear is that he's a rubber stamp (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, historys mysteries

        for whatever the crazies in the legislature can manage to pass with a simple majority. I don't know wheter he's a Trojan Horse or not, but I don't think he has the backbone to stand up to the nuts in his own party.

        A Republican legislature combined with Gov McCrory will turn NC into ALEC's best shop of horrors from Texas, Kansas, and South Carolina.

        NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

        by bear83 on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:43:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Mourdock better hope the circus isn't in town: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drmah

    •  Progressives may not be impressed by Mourdock's (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      challenger, Democrat John Gregg. Gregg is already running ads courting Republican votes, promising to be bipartisian. But Gregg is attacking Mourdock on stance re: Social Security as being unconstitutional.  Seems like Mourdock may be digging his own hole with cancer insurance thingie.

      •  Mourdock's challenger (17+ / 0-)

        is Donnelly, not Gregg, Gregg is running for Gov. against Pence.

        However, they do both seem to be having the same stategy, which is aim for the moderates in Indiana who liked Lugar and were fond of Mitch.  Both are conservative on social issues but are more focused on economic ones in their campaigns so far.  

        I think Donnelly has more of a chance than Gregg but as Pence's more extreme views come out I  hope we can take the Gov. seat as well.

        •  Mourdockk is an ass (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          drmah

          But I know enough people from Indiana who are too dense to pick up the nuance in the bungled cancer coverage statement and walkback, and that includes the journalists covering the campaign.

          Just another day in Oceania.

          by drshatterhand on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 06:50:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  You're right. They are cut from the same cloth. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, JGibson

          So far Pence has all the purchased ads and seems to be defining himself as "Mr Nice Guy."  I don't think that will last. Pence has too much Tea Bagger money behind him not to push their ugly stuff.

          •  Pence's problem (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Mark27

            he already thinks he's running for President 2016, it's one of the reasons we may have an outside shot here despite him having more money than God. The number one reason for politicians stepping wrong is probably not looking at their current opponent, but having their eyes off in the distance.

            (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

            by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:19:27 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Donnelly is challenging Mourdock (7+ / 0-)

        Gregg is running against Pence.  

        Donnelly will be a Conservadem, so it makes sense he is running as one as he'll need indie, and moderate Republican support.

        Donnelly winning would be a gift, and could really help the Dems keep the Senate in 2014.    

        •  There is a bevy of progressives in IN (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, R30A, sapelcovits

          working towards a coalition of republicans that were for Lugar and uniting them with activist lefty movements to get Donnelly the office.

          On the left, though Joe might not be our first choice he's lightyears better than Mourdock

          On the right, Mourdock is seen as the asshole that uprooted tradition by using a primary to oust Lugar.

          With Obama winds at our backs we got a good shot of turning IN back to purple at least for this year.

          --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

          by idbecrazyif on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:40:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  How much do you expect OFA et al. (0+ / 0-)

            to increase turnout among Democrats in IN? Do you think Obama has much of a chance of winning IN again? There's been a lot of skepticism about that on DKE.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:42:57 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  We're counting on lack of voter enthusiams for (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, JBraden, R30A

              Mittens and the entire Republican lot mostly. When you stack the numbers its a damn close call. If we can get enough people out voting, I personally and others feel we have a good shot at it.

              What was most assuredly a pipe dream now with Lugar ousted and a lot of angry moderate republicans upset about it, has become an actual possible reality.

              Hell there is even a chance we can keep IN 2 despite Warlosky outspending by a mountain of outside cash.

              --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

              by idbecrazyif on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:53:50 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  You don't think Republicans (0+ / 0-)

                will be motivated enough by hatred of Obama to turn out for his opponent?

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:56:52 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Some will, definitely (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, R30A

                  But there just might be enough folks still attached to the auto industry in Indiana to swing things, even a little.

                  I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians. Your Christians are so unlike your Christ. Mohandas Gandhi

                  by DouglasH on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:07:40 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  In certain areas of the state, yes (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  I mean you are going to have slightly increased turn out expected in areas. For instance no one doubts we'll see higher turn out in places like Terre Haute or Elkhart, however there are a number of areas where we expect lower R turnout, namely Fort Wayne, Evansville and Indianapolis due to lack of enthusiasm.

                  Add to that our plans on GOTV drives from now until election day, a lot of us here think we can make Wins. So plans are to make a heavy ground game push.

                  If IN does go for Mitt, I would expect to see a very narrow margin.

                  The big question right now regarding the governor race is whether we can educate people about the candidate. Get them to like him so enough people show up still having the GOP bad taste of Mitch on their tongue. I don't know how the polls put him at 60% approval when I continually hear from both sides how much their dislike him.

                  --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

                  by idbecrazyif on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:08:08 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  We are liable (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            to vote red in the general and for governor and then blue for senate...

            Even though Pence is a complete tool, he has the distinct advantage of not being Mourdock.

            I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians. Your Christians are so unlike your Christ. Mohandas Gandhi

            by DouglasH on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:09:30 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'll echo the Pence is a tool (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DouglasH, MichaelNY

              I still think general is up in the air though depending on which way the wind blows regarding approval ratings and jobs numbers.

              --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

              by idbecrazyif on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 09:20:12 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Asians (4+ / 0-)

    http://inamerica.blogs.cnn.com/...

    Interesting electoral impacts.

    22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

    by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 06:44:30 AM PDT

    •  If (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv, MichaelNY, SLDemocrat

      the GOP took some cues from their counterparts in Canada they could put the immigrant vote into play.

      Republicans and the Tea Party: Wrong for America.

      by ehstronghold on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 06:53:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  There is a giant void of understanding (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      WRT Asian cultures. They are incredibly different. Much more different than even Hispanic or even European cultures. If you showed pictures to an average American of a group of Vietnamese, and a group of Hmong, I doubt 90% could tell the difference, or know that these grounds have been blood enemies for over a thousand years, dating back to the Khmer Empire.

      •  I could say the same thing (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, sapelcovits

        about Serbs, Croats, and Bosnian Muslims, though, and they even speak the same language (a fact they now tend to deny for nationalistic reasons).

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:43:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I could (0+ / 0-)

        It's sad that the Hmong don't have their own nation-state. Keeping on with the Balkan theme that Michael got us into, I totally support balkanization of southeast Asia for the simple fact that only Cambodia is ethnically monolithic (Khmer), and even then there are substantial minorities.

        22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

        by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:50:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Have the Hmong ever wanted their own country? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sapelcovits

          Every country in Southeast Asia has hill tribes. And that's all I'll say because I don't want to get into an off-topic derail.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:53:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  the problem is the pure number of countries (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          You would need to accomplish that. In a 500 mile radius you already have India, China, Burma, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Singapore. And that is just on the mainland. there are too many small island states in that area for me to even name with a map in front of me. How many countries can you possibly add in such a small area and maintain stability and economic prosperity?

          •  Actually no (0+ / 0-)

            There'd only be approximately four to five more entities that would emerge from such a process. The Shan, the Hmong with various other hill tribes, and only a few other groups large enough to sustain themselves independently.

            There are some multi-ethnic societies that have worked very well. Indonesia is great. India is great. But there are also some which don't work very well. Vietnam, Thailand, Burma.

            22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

            by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 11:00:32 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  any later stats on Calif Smoking referendum? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, supercereal

    Still 400K+ votes to be counted and margin down to less than 20K.  Any trends or predictions?

    •  No Change Since Friday Trendwise (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I've been looking at Feinstein's margin as an indicator of any trends.

      For most of last week, she was at 49.2%, then on Friday she spiked up to 49.5%, where she is at now.

      Likewise, the first time the margin between the yes and no votes for Prop 29 fell below 20K was on Friday.

      So, if Feinstein goes up a few 1/10ths of a %, I'd say 29 wins.

  •  But the other missed point here is that while if (5+ / 0-)

    a company is allowed to stop providing cancer coverage, yes, in doing so it makes the company a less attractive place to draw talent, giving said company's competitors an advantage.  But guess what, ALL those companies stop providing cancer coverage.  Now these companies can save a buck in one of the most sleaziest ways imaginable, and no one is at a competitive disadvantage.  That's exactly the way greedy corporations think.  Perfect example is the insurance industry.  They ALL gouge the shit out of their customers and spend precious little on actual healthcare.  But because they all do it, it simply becomes the standard for the industry, as opposed to a competitive disadvantage.  

    •  said same just below before reading your comment (3+ / 0-)

      Agree entirely.

      Remove unions.

      Remove benefits.

      Remove minimum wage.

      Remove equal pay legislation.

      The agenda of capitalism just builds and builds.

      The Muslim said "I wished I had met Christ before I met the Christians" - Rev. Marvin Winins

      by captainlaser on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 06:57:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think that's capitalism. (0+ / 0-)

        Capitalism saves assets for future use and is practiced by people who produce.
        What Willard and his ilk are into is "capturism."  They're into acquiring and holding, or "catch and hold" instead of "catch and release," as is now favored by people who fish for sport.

        "Capturism" is also exemplified by the treatment of detainees on Guantanamo.  Considering that humans are meant to roam free, "catch and hold" is a strategy designed to torture their own kind.

        "In the name of the nation, and of the dollar and of the rule of law, you and your children shall sacrifice for the good of all." Rmoney's prayer

        by hannah on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:01:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There's a Difference Between (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Calamity Jean

          capitalism and corporatism.

          In order for capitalism to even exist, you need a lot of competition. In order to have competition, you need strong government regulation. Because if you don't then all you have are monopolies, which is the opposite of capitalism.

          This is basic Adam Smith economic theory.

          Unfortunately, not enough people read enough of Smith to see that he always called for strong government regulation, for a strong middle class and for rich people to give a lot of their wealth to the poor.

          •  Corporatism doesn't quite work because (0+ / 0-)

            it ignores that our various governmental bodies are also corporations -- artificial man-made bodies, whose primary purpose is to spread risk.  Since risk is to be spread, the functions of the corporation are supposed to be closely limited in their charters.  And then, there has to be a mechanism to correct the corporation if performance doesn't measure up.

            Regulation is not the answer, if only because to regulate means to make regular -- i.e. the regulatory agencies are tasked with doing that, avoid surprises, etc.  If the community and the environment are to be enhanced, then that has to be set out up front.  After the fact doesn't work as the ruling in Citizens United demonstrates.

            "In the name of the nation, and of the dollar and of the rule of law, you and your children shall sacrifice for the good of all." Rmoney's prayer

            by hannah on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 10:35:39 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  And when no employer offers health care any (4+ / 0-)

    more?

    The playing field is flattened (as are the employees).

    Health care is a right and it should not be a decision made by an employer.  Removing employer control on whether you can or cannot have health care is the issue.  

    Single payer.  THERE IS NO OTHER WAY.

    The Muslim said "I wished I had met Christ before I met the Christians" - Rev. Marvin Winins

    by captainlaser on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 06:54:45 AM PDT

    •  Yeah there is (6+ / 0-)

      Germany doesn't have single-payer, and neither does Britain. There are various ways to have universal health coverage, although those should be discussed elsewhere on Daily Kos.

      Anyway, your point is well taken.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:02:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Reminds me of interesting door-knock story (4+ / 0-)

        I was door-knocking for my local state legislator in spring 2009 in McLean when I ran across an old man who managed to take up 45 minutes of my time.  He wanted to spend the conversation complaining about Obama and the health care law, and I couldn't find a way to crawl out of the rabbit hole, unable to steer the conversation back to the state legislative race I was there to discuss.

        This guy had a Ph.D. and had lived all over the world, including several countries in Europe.  One thing in his long rant he mentioned was that of all the countries' health care systems where he'd lived, only Germany was good, and they were like us (that is, without ObamaCare).

        I had not looked into other countries' health care systems much and certainly knew nothing about Germany's, so I had nothing to say.

        But then I looked up Germany's system at home later, and learned it was......ObamaCare!  Not exactly, but it's what ObamaCare moves toward.  Germany is, and was during this old guy's years living there, an employer-based system of private insurance with very strict government regulations on coverage, and a means of insuring coverage for people not in the workforce.  It was holistic rather than the patchwork quilt of ObamaCare (and I think politically that's a significant part of what hurts our HCR law, that it's a patchwork quilt that looks like ugly legislation), but the great irony is that ObamaCare moves roughly toward Germany, and Germany was never like us at all as this guy wrongly believed.

        This story just underscores how hard it is to sell HCR to voters.  This old guy who had lived in other countries and experienced their health care systems and was hypereducated still had wrongheaded notions about health care systems.  It's awfully tough to overcome that, and skeptical Americans won't overcome it unless and until they experience the law over the next several years and realize they're getting something rather than losing something in the bargain of it.  As Claire McCaskill said weeks after Obama signed the bill into law, the HCR law won't be popular for a decade.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:48:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The issue to me is this. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Calamity Jean

        Everyone gets sick.

        People who are young and don't work get sick.

        People who work get sick.

        People who don't work get sick (or are sick)

        Old people get really sick.

        Only one of those groups works...  I still don't see the logic for tying health care to employment.  If you want employers to pay their share for a healthy workforce, tax them specifically for that.  But don't give them leverage over working people because of their health.

        Canada does not tie healthcare to work.  Employers have to pay their portion of healthcare cost as a tax.

        The Muslim said "I wished I had met Christ before I met the Christians" - Rev. Marvin Winins

        by captainlaser on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:55:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Honestly employer-sponsored insurance (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      is a bit of sham, regardless. It's being taken out of your paycheck and is one of the contributing reasons for why we have had stagnant wages the last 20 years (healthcare inflation has basically eaten away at any wage gains). The prevalence of employer-sponsored insurance is due to tax-benefits (you aren't taxed on ESI).

      The only saving grace of ESI is that group coverage vastly more efficient than individual coverage (due to increasing economies of scale, decreasing marginal administrative costs).  Of course, that's one of the major benefits of having health insurance exchanges for those with individual insurance. The large group nature of medicare is one of the main reasons it's so efficient.

      While single payer has a host of benefits (like coverage and efficiency) it also has a bunch of issues (like pricing).

      But that is neither here nor there and DK Elections not the best place to discuss policy! Instead (and the point of the post) is to discuss how it will impact electoral outcomes!

      Hopefully, Mourdock gets rightly hammered on the issue.

      •  Two values of employer offered health care: (0+ / 0-)

        for you:  you get pooled rates that you would not get elsewhere (until AHCAA)

        for your employer: it locks you into low wages and poor working conditions because you won't unionize or ask for a raise because if you lose your job, you lose your healthcare.

        The Muslim said "I wished I had met Christ before I met the Christians" - Rev. Marvin Winins

        by captainlaser on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:51:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Top Ten Media markets this week (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, bumiputera, Mark27

    1. Richmond-Petersburg: Obama 1,074, Romney 981, Priorities 337, Restore 265, Crossroads 45
    2. Norfolk-Portsmouth: Obama 1,090, Romney 889, Priorities 280, Restore 240, Crossroads 51
    3. Colorado Springs: Romney 1,062, Obama 755, Restore 355, Priorities 226, Crossroads 40
    4. Roanoke-Lynchburg: Obama 1,057, Romney 830, Restore 416, Crossroads 69
    5. Cincinnati: Obama 998, Romney 877, Restore 347, Crossroads 56
    6. Cleveland: Obama 951, Romney 625, Restore 229, Priorities 213, Crossroads 46
    7. Denver: Obama 885, Romney 825, Restore 225, Priorities 123
    8. Columbus: Obama 723, Romney 610, Priorities 341, Restore 199, Crossroads 69
    9. Charlotte: Romney 749, Obama 746, Restore 324, Crossroads 45
    10. Des Moines: Obama 740, Romney 623, Restore 207, Planned Parenthood 159, Crossroads 36

    Seems like VA and CO are picking up the slack from not spending as much in NC and IA this week.

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:17:54 AM PDT

  •  McConnel gave Obama a gift (9+ / 0-)

    He was on some morning show and said the tax code favors   the poor and needs to be restructured to give the rich a fairer deal. Just run that in an ad over and over, just amazing the rich are getting screwed!

    •  What? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sulthernao, bumiputera

      What?!?!?! Are you serious? Can we get a link to a video or a transcript?

      22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

      by wwmiv on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:29:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Obama isn't running against McConnell (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      aggou

      So how does he use it in an ad? I think it will be used in McConnell's next reelection campaign, though.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:31:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  There is a National Journal poll out on that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

      "A new United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll shows that only 26 percent of the public wants to see all of the tax breaks created during the George W. Bush administration, which are set to expire at year’s end, extended for at least another year. And only 18 percent want the tax breaks across all income levels made permanent, the position taken by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney."

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:46:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP Colorado: Obama 49-42 (12+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:44:39 AM PDT

  •  "an unattractive place to work" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera

    That's a typical statement from people directed by superficial optics and "objectivity" in the sense that the object of any action serves as a prompt for that action. In this instance, the "place" fails to attract and repulses instead.  There are no people involved in this scenario.  That persons are left out seems inconsistent with the commitment to "personal responsibility," until we understand that's to be understood literally -- i.e. persons are entities capable of making a response. Actually taking care of business is another thing, entirely.
    When dealing with the instinct-driven, nothing means what we think it means. It's as if thought and emotion were antagonists.

    On the other hand, when people describe Willard's lack of emotion as evidence of an emphasis on the cognitive, I think they're making a mistake.  Willard is driven by emotions; they just happen to be the antagonistic ones connected to pride, wrath and envy. Willard's instinct is to imitate what he admires. When he's rebuffed, the result is ire. Like the fox and the grapes, he rejects what he doesn't get.

    "In the name of the nation, and of the dollar and of the rule of law, you and your children shall sacrifice for the good of all." Rmoney's prayer

    by hannah on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 07:54:08 AM PDT

  •  Mourdock's answer would be acceptable, if (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    we didn't live in a world where denial happened after someone had cancer. If I am reading him correctly, he's saying that consumers can simply go to an insurer that covers it, which would in theory force all of them to because that's what consumers want. Except that, rescission is the problem, usually because of stupid reasons.

    In other words, he appears to be completely full of shit.

    Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

    by bjssp on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 08:33:55 AM PDT

  •  I'll bet a majority of white blue-collar Hoosiers (4+ / 0-)

    with no health care coverage, insurance, or benefits will still vote for Moorlock because Obamacare is socialism and Obama was born in Kenya anyhow.

    •  Yeah but there are plenty who wouldn't. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'm relatively new here in IN and heard many people insist that it couldn't happen but saw a lot of happy Hoosiers when IN went for Obama in '08.

      This election is very important. A GOP/TPer sweep will change things dramatically.

  •  Anyone else on here just love Heidi Heitkamp? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Sure, she's right-leaning on energy policy, but that comes with the turf.  As a person and as a candidate, I just think she's phenomenal, and she's probably my second-favorite newbie in this cycle after a certain law professor from Massachusetts.

    What a great way to deflect the "Obamacare" attacks as well.  Hopefully others will follow her lead.

  •  Mourdock + toaster = (0+ / 0-)

    Toast.

    Now THAT's the president I voted for!

    by RevJoe on Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 09:20:22 AM PDT

  •  Should Obama suggest ACA revision? (0+ / 0-)

    The diary quotes ND-Sen (D) candidate Heidi Heitkamp as saying, “There's good and bad in the healthcare law, and it needs to be fixed.”

    It made me think. What if President Obama said that if re-elected, he would support revision of the ACA in the direction of public option, single payer, or some other replacement for the contentious individual mandate? Obviously, many if not most here would welcome such a statement, but would it help or hurt the campaign, I wonder. The insurance companies and providers would probably be up in arms. It's not clear what the TPGOP's response would be, since they are against anything Obama does, yet, they have complained much more loudly about the mandate than about anything else in the law.

    A secondary consideration: would it be smarter to make that kind of statement before or after the SC ruling is announced? In some ways, it might be better to get the jump on them. If they find no constitutional problem with ACA, then there would still be value in has having recognized a problem and having announced his intention to address it. If ACA is decimated or eliminated completely, there would already be some momentum toward ACA V2.0, which would have some value. If the SC just tosses out the mandate, then a public option or single payer would become a very high priority, since insurance costs would probably skyrocket otherwise.

    Well, I suppose the statement could be tuned much more finely after the SC ruling, and for that reason, the Obama campaign will probably wait rather than trying to preempt them.

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