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Here are the updated districts in my "Outlook" series. I used the Cook PVI on the registration numbers and election results. Averaging these numbers gave PF's that are mostly Republican-leaning, as most of these districts voted more Republican than the state. They all voted more Republican than the state in the Senate race, and all but one did so in the governor race.

U.S. House

District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
CA-03
R+3.3
D+2.8
R+6.3
R+3.0
R+2.5
CA-07
R+9.1
R+0.9
R+9
R+4.1
R+5.8
CA-09
R+4.4
D+4.3
R+3.8
R+2.2
R+1.5
CA-16
D+0.2
D+5.2
R+7.2
R+2.6
R+1.1
CA-21
R+0.6
R+0.7
R+11.1
R+4.8
R+4.3
CA-24
R+6.9
D+4.3
R+6
R+6.5
R+3.8
CA-26
R+6.0
D+4.0
R+6.3
R+7.3
R+3.9
CA-36
R+10.0
R+2.1
R+10.2
R+10.2
R+8.1
CA-41
R+3.6
D+5.9
R+1.6
R+0.3
D+0.1
CA-46
R+0.4
D+6.3
R+0.3
R+1.5
D+1.0
CA-47
R+1.2
D+6.3
R+1
R+2.1
D+0.5
CA-52
R+11.2
D+2.5
R+9.2
R+11.0
R+7.2
State Senate (odd-numbered districts)
District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
SD-05
R+8.0
D+0.6
R+8.8
R+6.0
R+5.6
SD-19
R+1.6
D+7.9
R+2.2
R+3.4
D+0.2
SD-27
R+5.4
D+4.7
R+5.7
R+7.2
R+3.4
SD-31
R+6.2
D+3.8
R+5.4
R+4.0
R+3.0
SD-39
R+3.8
D+8.6
R+2.0
R+3.8
R+0.3
State Assembly
District Registration CPVI 2010 Sen. 2010 Gov. PF
AD-08
R+8.2
EVEN
R+7.9
R+3.0
R+4.8
AD-16
R+5.0
D+8.3
R+2.8
R+3.9
R+0.8
AD-21
R+1.6
D+2.2
R+8.9
R+5.7
R+3.5
AD-32
D+2.1
D+0.3
R+9.6
R+11.1
R+4.6
AD-40
R+9.0
D+0.2
R+8.4
R+6.3
R+5.9
AD-44
R+8.4
D+2.5
R+8.2
R+9.5
R+5.9
AD-60
R+10.1
R+1.1
R+10.7
R+9.2
R+7.8
AD-61
R+2.8
D+8.7
R+0.1
D+1.1
D+1.7
AD-65
R+9.7
R+1.9
R+10.6
R+11.2
R+8.4
AD-66
R+7.1
D+2.8
R+6.4
R+7.5
R+4.6

Originally posted to SoCalGal23 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 05:44 AM PDT.

Also republished by California politics.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Crider

    29 / F / Post-Modern / new CA-31 (hometown) / UT-01 (current) / SSP/RRH: californianintexas
    http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com

    by SoCalGal23 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 05:44:01 AM PDT

  •  What are the chances of Democrats (0+ / 0-)

    having a 2/3 majority in the Assembly?  They're very close to it now, as I understand.

    The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right. -- Judge Learned Hand, May 21, 1944

    by ybruti on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 07:40:41 AM PDT

  •  prop 29 report: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wblynch, Alibguy, sapelcovits

    2,476,418 no (50.2%), 2,459,491 yes (49.8%), which is a margin of 16,927, with 337,977 ballots still to be counted.

    •  Do we know (0+ / 0-)

      Where the new ballots are coming from?

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 01:42:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  the unprocessed ballot report (0+ / 0-)

        here has the details, for anyone interested.

        prop 29 is now at 2,481,795 no (50.1%), 2,469,376 yes (49.9%), with 12,419 votes dividing them, and 292,124 ballots left to count, so the margin is narrowing.

        the counties left to count are:

        butte 12,843
        contra costa 4,101
        fresno 24,500
        imperial 732
        kern 5,317
        lake 3,687
        los angeles 131,177
        madera 3,700
        marin 18,300
        napa 10,733
        nevada 4,410
        placer 1,388
        riverside 7,000
        sacramento 4,000
        san benito 348
        san diego 1,300
        san joaquin 3,467
        san mateo 4,343
        santa barbara 2,839
        santa clara 6,600
        santa cruz 2,015
        shasta 2,075
        sonoma 25,350
        tulare 2,400
        ventura 9,499

        my hunch is that the margin of victory will rest on whether the remaining ballots from LA county voted in the same proportions as those LA county votes already counted (50.5 no, 49.5 yes), or whether they broke more for the yes side. i don't have the time to try and add up the counties and their current %s to try and make a rigorous projection, though.

        •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

          The LA votes are pretty crucial. The late ballots seemed to have leaned towards the yes side though because the margin has been getting very tight. Also, the fact that there are 18,300 Marin ballots outstanding is good for the yes, that decrease the no margin by around 6,000-7,000 votes. Sonoma County should be helpful too, maybe giving an extra 7,000 votes to Yes. I'm worried about Fresno though but the outstanding Democratic areas should help counterbalance it. It just depends on how LA voted.

          For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

          by Alibguy on Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 10:31:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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