I read the article by Jonathan Chait presenting several options that SCOTUS has in its ruling (h/t nyceve).
Basically, Chait simplifies "the law as half cost containment and half coverage expansion", where the coverage expansion entails Medicaid expansion and expansion of private insurance coverage. So, the argument goes that the portion of the law in serious danger is the 1/4 of the overall law that expands coverage through private insurance, which includes these reforms:
Preventing insurance companies from denying coverage to prospective customers who are sick (or canceling benefits to customers who get sick), plus a mandate for individuals to obtain coverage and tax credits for those who need help affording it.
Chait provides 5 options for SCOTUS:
1. Leave it all in place.
2. Technically eliminate the mandate to buy health care while leaving in place the fine for not having health insurance. (Essentially upholding the fine as a tax while technically eliminating the requirement.)
3. Eliminate the mandate, and the fine, but leave in place the regulations that insurance companies not discriminate against people with health risks and the subsidies for buying insurance.
4. Eliminate the mandate, the fine, insurance regulations, and the subsidies.
5. Nuke the entire law.
Option 2 would be acceptable for me, since I think the mandate is important. Also, maybe this happens because it could allow Kennedy (and Roberts?) to stake out a reasonable middle ground and still deliver a political 'loss' to Obama.
What do y'all think?
Are there any hidden dangers in removing the mandate but keeping the fine (besides Republicans using the ruling as a political weapon)?
Extra info about the fine:
It was estimated that in 2016 (given HCR) there would be some 21 million people in the US without insurance. Of these, some 13-14 million
will be exempt from the mandate or its penalties because they are unauthorized immigrants, have low income, have an offer of coverage that is deemed unaffordable, or are members of Indian tribes. Other exemptions, such as those for hardship or religious beliefs, will further contract the population that is subject to penalties
. That means that perhaps 7-8 million people would be uninsured and subject to fines.
[The] financial penalty, which—when the provisions are fully implemented in 2016—will range from $695 for a single person with low or moderate income to as much as $12,500 for a high-income family.
CBO (PDF)