In a little over three hours, we'll know the outcome of the three Affordable Care Act cases.
Either the individual mandate and the ACA will prevail, or Chief Justice Roberts will be quoted against himself. So, just in case, below is the key quote from the Chief's dissent this past Monday in Miller v. Alabama (the juvenile sentencing case):
But today's decision invalidates the laws of dozens of legislatures and Congress. This court is not easily led to such a result. See, for example, United States v. Harris [citation] (courts must presume an act of Congress is constitutional "unless the lack of constitutional authority... is clearly demonstrated"). Because the court does not rely on the Eight Amendment's text or or objective evidence of society's standards, it's analysis of precedent alone must bear the "heavy burden [that] rests on those who would attack the judgment of the representatives of the people." Gregg, 428 U.S., at 175. If the court is unwilling to say that precedent compels today's decision, perhaps it should reconsider that decision.That's what the Chief Justice believed when he wrote Monday's decision. That's why he is likely to rule today in favor of the Affordable Care Act.
[Emphasis is mine].
I suspect those who predict a contrary decision are confusing the conservative proclivities of this court for the libertarian proclivities of ACA opponents. As the great Stephen Carter of Yale Law school has pointed out, the individual mandate runs counter to the strong libertarian strain in America. (That libertarian strain exists in both parties, and is why so many "progressives" opposed the mandate).
But this is not a libertarian court. It is a conservative court. As a lawyer, I predict the court will uphold the ACA. So there... I'm on the record and can be treated accordingly.