I apologize for writing a THIRD diary today, but I decided to take a look at the ONLY conservative pundit whose opinion I actually care about: David Frum.
Frum, you may recall, was the former Bush speechwriter who, 2 years ago, warned the rest of the GOP that the ACA, once signed into law, was going to be next to impossible to overturn, so they should stop the full-out assault on it. His reasoning was that doing so would probably gain them in the short term (this proved to be true, as the Great Red Tidal Wave of 2010 proved), but that it would be a disaster for them in the long term.
In his instantly-famous "WATERLOO" essay on March 21, 2010, he opened with the following:
Conservatives and Republicans today suffered their most crushing legislative defeat since the 1960s.
It’s hard to exaggerate the magnitude of the disaster. Conservatives may cheer themselves that they’ll compensate for today’s expected vote with a big win in the November 2010 elections. But:
(1) It’s a good bet that conservatives are over-optimistic about November – by then the economy will have improved and the immediate goodies in the healthcare bill will be reaching key voting blocs.
(2) So what? Legislative majorities come and go. This healthcare bill is forever. A win in November is very poor compensation for this debacle now.
He was, unfortunately, wrong about his first point...but it's looking very likely that he was absolutely correct about the second.
In fact, the GOP was so infuriated with this piece that they kicked him out of the American Enterprise Institute...for telling the truth.
With that in mind, I wanted to see what his thoughts were after today's historic ruling by the SCOTUS. I wasn't disappointed:
Repeal is A Fantasy
The Republican Plan B is to repeal Obamacare on Day 1 of a Romney presidency.
Good luck with that.
First, today's Supreme Court decision will make it a lot harder to elect Mitt Romney. President Obama has just been handed a fearsome election weapon. 2012 is no longer exclusively a referendum on the president's economic management. 2012 is now also a referendum on Mitt Romney's healthcare plans. The president can now plausibly say that a vote for the Republicans is a vote to raise prescription drug costs on senior citizens and to empower insurance companies to deny coverage to children for pre-existing conditions. Those charges will hurt—and maybe hurt enough to sway the election.
Read the whole thing. It's essentially a vindication of the WATERLOO piece, and lends some valid insight into just why, as flawed and fucked-up as the ACA is (and it is, let's admit it), it's still truly a Big Fucking Deal indeed.