Skip to main content

Daily Kos-SEIU polling banner

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 6/28-7/1. Registered voters. MoE ±3.1% (6/21-24 results):

Barack Obama: 48 (48)
Mitt Romney: 45 (45)
Undecided: 6 (7)
Last Thursday was as big and momentous a news day as you could possibly imagine. A massive piece of legislation that stands to reshape America's relationship with health insurance hung in the balance—and in a move that surprised many, was upheld as constitutional by the Supreme Court. It was all the political world could talk about for days, before and especially after.

Yet what effect did the ruling have on the presidential race? At least as far as Daily Kos & SEIU's topline polling is concerned, absolutely none. Last week, Barack Obama led Mitt Romney 48-45. This week, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney... 48-45. Not much to see here at all!

We did see an interesting shift on our voter enthusiasm question, though. Though we normally ask it every other week, we included it this week so that we could have a direct basis for comparison. Before the ruling came down, 62% of Republicans said they were "very excited" to vote this fall while only 54% of Democrats did. After, "very excited" Republicans dropped to just 51% while Democrats increased to 58%.

That didn't translate into a change in the Obama-Romney head-to-head, but it defies the conventional wisdom that the Supreme Court's ruling would fire up Republican voters. In fact, it appears to have done just the opposite, though it's worth keeping your eye on that question to see if it's a momentary bump or the start of a trend.

P.S. As always, our approval and favorability numbers can be found on our weekly trends page.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jul 03, 2012 at 12:42 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site