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This diary compares the number of registered voters in Arizona in June compared to April. It is an update to my last diary which looked at the historical state of party registration in Arizona.

Okay the  number you have all been waiting for... the number of Registered Democratic "Active Voters" in Arizona increased by -4335. But wait a minute, that is a decrease ! Overall the decrease was 7318. For the Republicans, they also actually decreased by 3702, and Others (mostly Independents) actually increased only by 719.

So Status Quo prevails. Sigh - I was hoping to see evidence of an Obama For America Voter Registration Drive surge by now.

But is that wily Romney Arizona Campaign Chair/Totally Independent Pandered to Birthers Secretary of State Ken Bennett taking voters off the rolls faster than OFA can put them on ? Unfortunately I wont be able to tell that until after the end of July... as they did not release the number of "inactive voters" in the April stats... only in the June 2012 stats.  

Essentially the Democrats made gains in 7 LDs including four safely Democratic Phoenix LDs, and the GOP leaning 28th. There is big gains in the competitive Flagstaff based 6th LD, but these are outweighed by monster GOP gains with the 6th LD being unusually strong for them (an extra 1000 registered GOP voters).

Here is the table showing by Legislative District the increase or decrease in active voters from April to June 2012. (D=Dem, R-GOP, O=Others incl Independents,T=Total).  

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If you have forgotton which LD is which these maps may help.

Here is the Independent Redistricting Commission's Arizona LD Map
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Here is the Independent Redistricting Commission's Phoenix LD Map
2012 Phoenix LDs

Conclusions
-We are still going backwards overall.
- We need more data to identify how many voters are being made "inactive voters" by Ken Bennett.
- Inactive Voters are around 10% of the Voting Eligible Population in general (see tables below for details).
- There are three Tucson Democratic LDs (3rd, 9th and 10th) with greater than 17% of the Voting Eligible Population being "Inactive Voters" (See tables below for details).

Questions
- How many voters has OFA actually registered ? This would be useful in determining whether there is funny business with the stats. and voters being made inactive.
- Why do the Baja Arizonans, particularly the Democratic seats in Tucson have far more "inactive" voters ?

For my spreadsheets with the full numbers, please see below the fold.

Please vote in the poll.

Arizona Registration - By The Numbers
When looking through the below tables remember it is tough to compare apples with apples here... The April 2012 numbers were the first using the new Legislative Districts (LDs) and they only had ACTIVE Voters, whereas the June 2012 numbers had the full list of Active Voters and Inactive Voters (which are those voters for whom voting is made unnecessarily hard and who are at risk of being pushed off the rolls altogether).

The Voting Eligible Population is my calculation created by using the Hispanic CVAP figures. The colour coding reflects the Democratic seats (blue), the competitive seats (white), the GOP leaning seats (pink), and the Solid GOP seats (red).  


Table 1: April 2012 ACTIVE Registered Voters

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Table 2: June 2012 ACTIVE Registered Voters
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Table 3: June 2012 INACTIVE Registered Voters
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Table 4: June 2012 TOTAL Registered Voters
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Originally posted to CF of Aus on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 05:24 AM PDT.

Also republished by Baja Arizona Kossacks.

Poll

Why Are Voter Registrations Not Going Up ?

29%9 votes
51%16 votes
12%4 votes
6%2 votes

| 31 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (14+ / 0-)

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

    by CF of Aus on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 05:24:09 AM PDT

  •  Wow, this is great! (5+ / 0-)

    I'm going to stare at this for a while and analyze it but you did a great job. T & R.

    Maybe Independents who are already registered will shift to the left this year?

    From the polling that I've seen, it seems like Romney wins the rural areas while Obama gets Tucson and part of Phoenix. Richard Carmona and Obama will easily win Tucson. I think that they should put all of their money into making sure the new CD-9 is blue (Kristen Sinema sp?) and the two big metro hubs get the Indies to vote for Dems this time.

    When the operation of the machine becomes so odious that you can't take part,you've got to put your bodies upon the gears;you got to make it stop.Indicate to the people who run it that unless you're free the machine will be prevented from working at all

    by YoungArizonaLiberal on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 06:08:53 AM PDT

    •  See you at The Shanty ? (0+ / 0-)

      The GOP ... Government of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%

      by Azazello on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:50:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Unfortunately no. :-( (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Azazello

        I would like to remain "in the loop" though for future meetups!

        You said there were about 8 Baja Kossacks at your last meeting? When the school year starts up in August and the Young UA Dems have community events would you want to join our two groups together? On my profile page there is a link to the Facebook Page, you can check it out to see if it interests you.

        If not, hopefully I will be able to make it next time you guys meet!

        When the operation of the machine becomes so odious that you can't take part,you've got to put your bodies upon the gears;you got to make it stop.Indicate to the people who run it that unless you're free the machine will be prevented from working at all

        by YoungArizonaLiberal on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:04:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Arizona's new motto (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GDbot, Azazello, PSzymeczek, CF of Aus

    "Going Backwards and Proud of it!" ;)

    Thanks for crunching all those numbers. I figure it is a combination of the first two items on your poll. More Indies and more purge. I just got my new voting card in the mail for my new district, so at least I know I still get to vote.

    'Cause the fire in the street, Ain't like the fire in the heart/ And in the eyes of all these people, Don't you know that this could start, On any street in any town ~ FZ

    by cosmic debris on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 06:49:38 AM PDT

    •  Tomorrow night, 6 PM at The Shanty ? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cosmic debris

      The GOP ... Government of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%

      by Azazello on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:53:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, I'll be there (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Azazello

        I'd like to go right now as a master of fact. A nice cold beer would be freaking awesome to accompany this pitiful lunch I'm having. I don't think my boss would approve though.  Thanks for the link from Navajo. We need her to come down here and socially organize us. She is definitely the hostess with the mostest :)

        'Cause the fire in the street, Ain't like the fire in the heart/ And in the eyes of all these people, Don't you know that this could start, On any street in any town ~ FZ

        by cosmic debris on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 12:48:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hey, what am I, chopped liver over here ? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          cosmic debris

          rasbobbo says he can make it, AgavePup is a probable, Landrubeck a maybe.
          See ya' tomorrow.

          The GOP ... Government of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%

          by Azazello on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 01:06:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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