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Eric Hovde
Eric Hovde, Madison East HS yearbook photo, 1982
Public Policy Polling (pdf). 7/5-8. Wisconsin voters. MoE ±2.9% (4.1% for Republican primary sample). (4/13-15 results in parentheses, 2/23-26 in brackets):
Eric Hovde (R): 31 [--]
Tommy Thompson (R): 29 [39]
Mark Neumann (R): 15 [22]
Jeff Fitzgerald (R): 9 [22]
Undecided: 16 [17]
Tammy Baldwin (D): 44
Eric Hovde (R): 45
Undecided: 11

Tammy Baldwin (D): 45 (45) [46]
Tommy Thompson (R): 45 (47) [45]
Undecided: 11 (8) [9]

Tammy Baldwin (D): 45 (46) [47]
Mark Neumann (R): 41 (45) [41]
Undecided: 13 (9) [12]

Tammy Baldwin (D): 46 (47) [47]
Jeff Fitzgerald (R): 42 (40) [39]
Undecided: 11 (13) [14]

Something important has happened in the last few months in the Wisconsin Senate race ... and, no, it doesn't involve anything that Tammy Baldwin (the presumptive Democratic nominee) or Tommy Thompson (the state's former four-term Republican governor, generally expected to be her opponent) did, nor does it have anything to do with the gubernatorial recall election. What happened is: Washington, D.C.-based hedge fund manager and political novice Eric Hovde aired a crapload of TV ads, mostly paid for out of his own pocket. Having the airwaves mostly to himself for months on end has taken Hovde—who only a few months ago seemed to be the fourth wheel in the primary, just another rich guy running a quixotic vanity campaign—and turned him in to a legitimate threat in both the primary and the general, more than a little reminiscent of fellow rich outsider Ron Johnson's surge out of obscurity in the 2010 Wisconsin Senate race.

The more immediate question is the GOP primary, which is coming up on August 14. Until recently, it looked like Thompson was generating only lukewarm enthusiasm among the GOP base, and he could be in trouble if one more conservative opponent could consolidate the anti-Thompson vote. But, it looked like he was going to skate through anyway, thanks in large part to the fact that the very conservative vote was split down the middle by the principal candidates running to his right, ex-Rep. Mark Neumann and state House speaker Jeff Fitzgerald.

However, that was before Hovde was much of a factor (in fact, this is the first time PPP has polled him); thanks to millions in ad spending, he's cranked up his name rec and in fact has the best favorables in the GOP field. Hovde's at 50/9 among Republican voters, compared with 56/28 for Thompson and 43/21 for Neumann. Neumann and Fitzgerald have really faded, with Hovde drawing primarily from them but also a fair number of former Thompson voters. In fact, if it somehow became just a head-to-head between Thompson and Hovde, Hovde would be winning 46-39, pretty similar to the more generic question of whether Republicans want Thompson or 'someone more conservative,' where generic wingnut wins 50-34. Non-tea party Republicans split 31-31, but tea partiers give Hovde the edge, backing him 39-21.

Thompson had been polling slightly ahead of Baldwin in most polls of this race while Baldwin had a decent edge over the conservative also-rans (including in PPP's previous April poll, although that poll came with a huge caveat in that it was a poll of likely gubernatorial voters, a pool of voters that turned out to be slightly more Republican-leaning than the broader populace). So, you'd think that it would be good news for Baldwin that Thompson is deflating and Hovde is rocketing up.

However, Hovde's incessant ad blitz—in which he comes across as non-threatening, platitude-spouting outsider—seems to have gotten him into good position for the general, too. His favorables among the entire electorate are 31/27, leaving him the only candidate who's above water, better than Baldwin at 37/39 and much better than Thompson at 40/47. In fact, this is the first poll we've seen where Hovde performs as well as (in fact, one point better) Thompson against Baldwin. With either Hovde or Thompson as the nominee, PPP finds the November election a true tossup, one that'll come down to ground game and Barack Obama coattails. (It's worth a mention, though, that the overall sample was pretty GOP-leaning; the respondents broke 46-46 in 2008, quite different from the actual 56-42 win for Obama.)

In the context of this poll's findings, the new ad that debuted Monday from EMILY's List (under the name "Wisconsin Women Vote," on which they're spending at least $221,000) seems to make more sense, and it suggests that this poll isn't a fluke and maybe other camps' internal polling is seeing Hovde performing just as well as Thompson in the general. Their ad attacks both Thompson and Hovde, which seemed like an unusual (if not outright bad) choice at first; if Hovde was weaker, it would make more sense to hold fire against him until after the primary in the hopes of wounding Thompson and letting the weaker Hovde sneak through the primary. However, if Hovde and Thompson perform the same in November, it makes more sense to go after them simultaneously, which is exactly what they do here:

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 11:52 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  How hard is the DSCC targeting this race? Will (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Puddytat, Nica24, wu ming, New Rule, askew

    there be money?

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 11:56:58 AM PDT

  •  From what I understand (8+ / 0-)

    the Women Vote Project is very good at pinpointing the exact needs of a candidate. It's a well oiled machine.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 12:03:23 PM PDT

  •  I really want to see Tammy Baldwin elected (15+ / 0-)

    to the Senate. She's right there behind re-electing Kirsten Gillibrand and electing Elizabeth Warren in my book.

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 12:16:43 PM PDT

  •  Hovde has seen how easy it is (14+ / 0-)

    to buy an election via the examples of Ron Johnson and Scott Walker.  Our corporate media is in the tank for the GOP, as well and continue to spout the Republican candidates meme while beating up on their opponents.

    This is the reason Feingold got defeated and Ron Johnson and Scott Walker got elected.

    We no longer have elections.  We have auctions.

    There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

    by Puddytat on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 12:20:29 PM PDT

    •  An unhappier explanation (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      savvyspy

      is that Wisconsin could be generically tilt R now.

      •  Nope (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG, New Rule, KingofSpades, R30A, exterris

        Check out the presidential polls in Wisconsin - Obama still winning.

        We are, however, a very propagandized state thanks not only to paid ads, but to corporate media and the saturation of RW radio and virtually no competing voices.  

        There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

        by Puddytat on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 02:17:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not very convincing (0+ / 0-)

          and those are phenomena of states that are going the wrong way, unfortunately.  The moderate/conservative Party establishment is afraid and shying away from making the case for itself and the national Party.

          I have Wisconsin as probably D+0 and where the 270th electoral vote is going to be won or lost this election.  It's not your fault, it's trends around the Great Lakes and Midwest catching up.

          •  There are no trends against us there (4+ / 0-)

            You're making that up.

            One bad wave election is not a trend, and that's all we had, one bad wave election.

            The Upper Midwest is stable as ever in voting behavior, with lots of swing voters.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:32:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well, (0+ / 0-)

              the Party that won each of the prior 5 midterm elections has won the Presidential election that followed in 4 cases, where I count Gore as winning (technically) and Clinton in '96 the exception.   You can go back quite a bit and this is a fairly clear general pattern rule going back to 1966 or maybe even 1958.  

              The major distortion other than Clinton '96 is Reagan winning in '84.  But Democrats compensated in a fashion by winning the '86 midterms out of turn.

              wins
              R: 66/68, 70?/72, 78/80, 84+88, 94 but not 96, 02/04, 2010
              D: 62/64, 74/76, 82+86, 90/92, 98/00, 06/08

              "One bad wave election" is an anomaly.

              I am not making up that the Great Lakes/Midwest has had population stagnation and net outmigration of the young for decades now.  Which means the 'stable' Democratic vote has gotten net older, which also means more conservative.  It may not stay so swingy.  Especially if/when people give up hope for an economic recovery in the near or middle future.  I'd say 2008 was the anomalous election, in fact.

              We shall see in November.  

      •  That is what is scary. Has Wisconsin become a (0+ / 0-)

        swing state?

    •  Let's not forget (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kleinburger, jncca, Puddytat, wu ming

      This election is to replace Herb Kohl, one of the richest Senators, if not the richest. We don't exactly have clean hands on the issue of "rich dudes buying Senate seats".

      You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

      by Gpack3 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 01:15:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Said it once, and I'll say it again . . . (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, LordMike, R30A

      . . . Feingold actively lost because he didn't fight. Had he accepted the help of the DNC and other money sources, he could've held on, but he didn't, out of "principle," which, of course, is meaningless if you're not in power. Baldwin ≠ Feingold. She's already accepting the help of outside groups, while simultaneously making active pitches for donations from supporters. That's more than Feingold ever did. His campaign was half-assed right to the very end. I guess 2004 made him complacent.

      29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

      by The Caped Composer on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 04:57:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2008 v 2010 (0+ / 0-)

      In the city of Milwaukee in 2008  275,000 voted and gave Obama a net of over 155,000.  In 2010 185,000 voted and Feingold net 89,000.  Expect Baldwin to net at least 150,000 from the city- Repubs got rid of straight party voting so this may depress Baldwin's total in the city.  The key is to build up huge numbers in Milwaukee and Dane County and hope Baldwin does not vastly underperform Obama in Western and Northern Wisconsin.  I will be interested in the PPP pres. numbers.  As has been mentioned their sample is 32-30-38 (R/D/I).  Don't think that this will be the breakdown come November but we shall see.

  •  I have been seeing a lot of Hovde lawn signs (0+ / 0-)

    out on wingnut lawns. And yes, I remember which lawns had Walker support yard signs on them. Yes, this is a polarized state.

    I have only seen a few Thompson signs; far more Hovde signs. No Neumann or Fitz signs (I don't think folks in Milwaukee area are all that keen on Fitz).

  •  Been getting a lot of emails from the Baldwin (11+ / 0-)

    campaign asking for donations.  If any of you are wondering where you should send you donations to, this Senate race should be a high priority.  I think Baldwin can beat Hovde but she will need ours and Obama's help.  I had a feeling once Hovde made that dumb ass comment about the media and the poor he would go up in the polls.  That's the modern day GOP for you.

  •  Reportedly, John$on is 'mentoring' Hovde. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rosarugosa, savvyspy

    Barf.

  •  Does it seem like Baldwin is finally (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    becoming more competitive? I wonder.

    Against anybody but Thompson, I feel fairly confident. Against Thompson, I am worried, but still optimistic. He's her biggest threat, I think, yet he can't do any better than getting to a tie?

    Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

    by bjssp on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 12:36:31 PM PDT

    •  I think no matter who is the winner Hovde or Thomp (0+ / 0-)

      Whit Hovde or Thompson it is necessary to win this seat for the Wisconsin Democrats.

      Maybe a little easier with Hovde, but Thompson also must be defeated.

  •  While I'm still concerned... (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DaleA, redrelic17, abgin, itskevin, exterris

    About the kind of money the GOP is dropping in Wisconsin, hopefully Tammy Baldwin won't get the urge to tie her hands behind her back the way Russ Feingold did in 2010. And hopefully this time, Dems will continually pound Hovde for being the outlandish kook-a-doodle-doo that he is.

    Really, one (Ron Johnson) should be more than enough

    •  If PACs drop the kind of bank they did for Walker (0+ / 0-)

      Wisconsin is going to get their 2nd teabagger Senator.

      I just don't understand what happened in Wisconsin in the last couple of years to make it Kansas North.

      •  I wouldn't go that far. Obama still seems... (5+ / 0-)

        To have the upper hand in Wisconsin, and that should help Baldwin. It just looks like the Wisconsin Democratic Party is pretty weak and disorganized compared to the machine the Wisconsin Republicans have seemed to build. This is especially why Baldwin needs help from the likes of the DSCC, Emily's List, HRC, and the unions. As long as they come in to ensure Baldwin is getting her message across the airwaves while she puts together a good field operation, this race is very winnable.

        •  I'm not sure. (0+ / 0-)

          The party seems to be run by some really good people. Honestly the Democrats bench seems a little thin right now.

          I don't want to diminish what the WI Democratic Party pulled off in the Senate recall races because those were huge wins but they've got a lot of work to do.

          This Senate seat is one that would be an absolute disaster to lose. There is no reason Wisconsin should have TWO teabagger Senators.

        •  ...the WISGOP machine that the Kochs and Bradley (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          badscience, NoMoreLies

          Foundation have built!

          Robber Baron "ReTHUGisms": John D. Rockefeller -"The way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets"; Jay Gould -"I can hire one half of the working class to kill the other half."

          by ranton on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:20:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  How can they be so disorganized after such a (0+ / 0-)

          historic and huge recall effort?  I don't get it.  You would think they would be more organized than any other state this year.

    •  No evidence she thinks like Russ on campaigning (3+ / 0-)

      There's been no word that she eschews independent expenditures helping her.  Silence is approval in this regard, I'm sure the DSCC is prepared to come in as needed.

      But she doesn't need it yet, she's got more money than all the GOPers by a massive margin, even though Hovde admittedly can self-fund significantly.  But until she needs it, they can stay out.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:35:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Can Hovde take a political punch? (6+ / 0-)

    He seems to have been getting a free ride so far.  He'll then try to make it all about Baldwin's votes and how liberal she is, because he has no voting record of his own.  She needs to pin Wall Street Hedge Fund manager around his neck and the tie him in with Romney is Wisconsin, and tie herself to Pres Obama.  

    Her life is about helping people, Hovde is about making himself rich and then trying to buy a Senate seat.  

    •  ...total free ride but ugliness likes ugly; and (0+ / 0-)

      his comments about "sob stories" and his attack on Huffington Post plays well to his "new" supporters .  A reporter needed to hound him to make him give an example.

      He says he did none of the things that Wall Street and the too-big-to-fail banks did. I find that hard to believe.  The press here will not investigate him so I hope Baldwin's campaign staff is looking under every "rock" to see if that statement is true.

      Robber Baron "ReTHUGisms": John D. Rockefeller -"The way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets"; Jay Gould -"I can hire one half of the working class to kill the other half."

      by ranton on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:28:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Interesting diary. You probably know this, but (3+ / 0-)

    in case your don't, Tea Partiers don't like Neumann because he ran against Walker in the 2010 GOP primary. It seems he is not forgiven for that.

    You would really think that Hovde wouldn't have a chance with your rank and file tea partier, with him having lived in DC for so long.

    I think another factor might be the Thompson association with the ACA. For some reason, the Wisconsin Tea Party really hates the ACA. Ron Johnson is always saying "It is an affront to freedom" and stuff like that.  Low income people  who don't want to buy health insurance? Or hoodwinked people who already are on Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security?

    Kind of surprising that they aren't backing Fitzgerald. It looks like the money factor is working against him too.

  •  Hovde just might win the primary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, DCCyclone

    There is enough time for the GOP establishment to swoop in and attempt to save it for Thompson, though. Thompson could get a lot of Democrats to crossover in the general, Hovde would not be able to do the same. Baldwin vs. Hovde would be very polarized in parts of the state.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 01:01:07 PM PDT

  •  Not surprising that Hovde has decent numbers. (5+ / 0-)

    He's pretty much the only guy on TV ads on the R side.  I just got back from a week with my dad in WI and those "cut corporate taxes" ads of Hovde's made me want to throw my shoe at the TV.  Asshole.

    I've also seen the anti-Baldwin ads courtesy of Americans for Prosperity.  The parts about how Tammy Baldwin voting FOR the stimulus and President Obama's "2 trillion dollar health care takeover" were particularly disgusting.  I told my dad, "the only thing missing from those ads were scary pipe organ music and blood dripping..."

    Assholes.

    Is anybody listenin' ? - by Tori del Allen

    by Dumas EagerSeton on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 01:38:44 PM PDT

  •  Why would the GOP estab' want to save Thompson (3+ / 0-)

    If Hovde is already running even with Baldwin, and he can self-fund, why wouldn't the establishment there want to support him.  Johnson came from behind, with no record, and look at the result.  It seems like a slam dunk with Hovde, when viewed from the GOP's point of view.  Thompson is old, and has a long record that can be mined and picked apart by the opposition, and he isn't all that exciting to the GOP base.  

    As far as how it looks from the Dems point of view, Baldwin only represents 1 of 8 congressional districts in the state, or approximately 12% of the population.  If she is already at 45%, that is amazing.  I am sure that a lot of that has to do with her being the Democrats nominee and her getting the support of her party's base.  But, she has plenty of time and room to grow.  

    She will have to run an aggressive campaign, because the GOP really needs Wisconsin to be in the mix if they want to take back the Senate.  It is possible without it, but, this open seat in a state that just reelected Scott Walker is a good opportunity for the GOP.

    We already analyzed Walker's win, and most here agree that part of his win was that voters didn't feel comfortable throwing out an elected governor in the middle of his term.

    Obama is polling well here and that will help Baldwin.  She needs to continue to introduce herself to voters and present real alternatives on how to deal with the issues that face the state.  

    She can certainly market herself as being just as fresh and new as Hovde.  She has legislative experience, but hasn't been around so long that she seems old and stale.  She can also run on her experience.  We do need leaders that can get things done and know how to do things.  

    I wish we weren't running against Hovde in the general, but, it looks pretty good for him.  If his business  experience is his strength, lets hit him on it, just as we are going after Romney's business experience and showing it for the farce that it is.

    •  Why would the GOP be supporting Romney?? They (0+ / 0-)

      ought to know as we do how completely insane they were to back such a weak candidate, but they did it anyway.

      Thompson is elite, old news GOP....and so they will back him.  The whole party is in a civil war right now between old GOP and Tea Bagger.

  •  Eric Hovde? Oh please, how bad can it get (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IreGyre

    in Wisconsin?  The man is a former hedge fund manager who made millions outside of the state and has now come back to buy himself a senate seat.  He hasn't even lived in Wisconsin for about 15 years.  It should be so easy to shoot him down!  What's going on in Wisconsin???  Come on - this guy is Wisconsin's own Mitt Romney!  He has no qualifications to be a senator and no qualifications to represent the state of Wisconsin.  Someone sent him there to buy the race, because he can; he has the money and doesn't have to raise it - he's a soldier in the Koch brothers' army.  

    •  what's going on (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, rosarugosa

      No one else is running ads, and in a primary where only one candidate spends, that candidate almost invariably wins.

      Baldwin has no reason to knock Hovde down yet as she would much rather face him than Thompson. Thompson is still generally well regarded by persuadable voters if not by the GOP base. Hovde is a rich kid who should be much easier to run against, and as a rookie politician is much more likely to blunder than Thompson is. As of now he essentially does no better than Thompson against Baldwin even though he's been spending and Thompson has not.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 03:28:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Wisconsin's Romney (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    New Rule

    Well,

    You said it yourself.  Hovde is Wisconsin's Mitt Romney.  I agree.  Yet, Romney is now the GOP nominee for President.  Of course these guys are horrible, yet, people keep coming out and voting for them.  It is hard to understand, yet, here we are.  

    Look at Rick Scott in Florida.  His company was fined a billion dollars and yet the majority of voters went with him.  His latest accomplishment?  Closing down the only tuberculosis speciality clinic in an area where there is now an outbreak of TB.

    It truly is amazing how incompetent some of these guys are, yet, people keep voting them into office.

  •  So the double-digit lead (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wdrath, SLDemocrat, DCCyclone

    Rasmussen had for Thompson was complete and utter bullshit. Good to know. Baldwin makes me so nervous because Madison candidates don't a superb track record in the state, particularly candidates as liberal as she is. And she has a history of underperforming the top of the ticket significantly even in Madison.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 04:11:48 PM PDT

    •  Madison Democrats have a better (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      statewide record then Milwaukee Democrats.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 04:27:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Meh. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, SLDemocrat

        I still think Ron Kind would probably have been out in front by now.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 04:30:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ron Kind isn't a Milwaukee Democrat and (0+ / 0-)

          who knows.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 04:57:21 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  He would've probably . . . (0+ / 0-)

          . . . encountered the same friction from unions that Tom Barrett did. Kind has not been the most union-friendly Dem, thus, coalescing around him and rousing people to support him would've likely been an uphill battle. Just because he's not a Madison or MKE Dem doesn't make him a magic bullet.

          29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

          by The Caped Composer on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 05:17:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Perhaps. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, The Caped Composer, Gpack3

           But he also voted for contempt of Eric Holder. So, I am not wishing he were the nominee at all.

          http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

          by redrelic17 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 06:08:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Forgot about that! (0+ / 0-)

            Yet another reason I'm glad he's not the nominee. If you're always apologizing for being a Dem, you shouldn't be one in the first place. I'm not demanding 100% purity all the time, obviously, but between the Holder vote and the numerous votes against the interests of labor (details here: http://workplacechoice.org/... ), Kind isn't really one of our kind (forgive the bad pun).

            29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

            by The Caped Composer on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:19:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Based on what? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          The Caped Composer

          I never saw any evidence that Kind would've been a better statewide candidate than Baldwin.

          Outstate appeal and ideology aren't nothing, but they're not aces in the hole by a longshot.

          Discussions of Kind and other similar candidates in other states always remind me of how Ron Klain was supposed to be our ace in the hole against Santorum in PA-Sen 2000.  Klain was supposed to have the "right" geography and profile.  Well, he was a terrible candidate and got crushed.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:42:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Klink you mean? (0+ / 0-)

            He ran a pretty weak campaign, and that was before Santorum really started getting into his right-wing posturing.

            Kind just has a better geographic base, plus more experience running competitive campaigns. He's managed to hold a rather swingy district for eight terms with little trouble before Dan Kapanke, a fantastic recruit for Republicans, challenged him in 2010.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:17:54 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Right, Klink, not Klain (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              The Caped Composer

              My mistake on the name.

              Your description of Kind applied equally to Klink.  Klink held a redder district than Kind's, and did well to win and hold it comfortably.  But he got promoted beyond his level of campaign competence with the Senate nod.

              Not that Kind resembles Klink, but the point is what we think we see is not always what we really get in a candidate.  Superficial things like profile and election history can be misleading.  Kind's election history doesn't necessarily portend skilled statewide campaign chops.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:41:41 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well, at the time actually, (0+ / 0-)

                Klink's district was more Democratic than Kind's is, and it's ancestrally so. Not to mention PA is a much bigger state than Wisconsin, so a political base isn't as meaningful.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 08:59:09 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  what's the likelihood of the Republicans (0+ / 0-)

    all going negative on each other now? Usually in situations like this the frontrunner (up until now, Thompson) would feel the need to start better "defining" his opponent to help bolster himself. What are the chances of Thompson, Neumann and Fitzgerald piling on against Hovde?

  •  Thompson has to start throwing punches... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tari

    He needs to show he wants it or he's toast.

    •  It may be too late already . . . (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, Christopher Walker, Mike Kahlow

      . . . but either way, I hope he does throw some punches. Whichever Republican makes it to the nomination, I want him to be beaten to a metaphorical pulp in the primary, thus weakening him for the general election.

      29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

      by The Caped Composer on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:11:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ridiculous sample (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    badlands

    Obama and Mccain voters equal.  No chance on earth that will happen in 2012.  25% of 2008 Obama voters not voting is an impossibility.

    Baldwin well ahead if the sample would be even +7 Obama08, which is half of what the margin was in 2008.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 09:27:21 PM PDT

  •  Also 1.5 other candidates.. (0+ / 0-)

    Joseph Kexel, Libertarian
    Nimrod Y. U. Allen III, I.D.E.A.

  •  WI is up for the highst bidder !!! (0+ / 0-)
  •  Hovde:Stop talking about poor people (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mike Kahlow, Losty, NoMoreLies, Treg

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    Why is this slime surging......

    Eric Hovde, GOP Senate Candidate: Press Should Stop Writing Sob Stories About Poor People

    WASHINGTON -- Wisconsin U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde (R) says he is sick and tired of reading sad stories about people struggling in the recession. Instead, he wants to see the media focus more on the debt and the larger problems afflicting the country.

    Hovde made his remarks during a presentation on Friday to the Greater Brookfield Chamber of Commerce.

    During the Q&A portion of the event, Hovde expressed his support for lowering the corporate tax rate, tackling the country's spending problems and lowering the national debt.

    Then, pointing to a reporter in the audience, Hovde said he would love to see the press stop covering sad stories about low-income individuals who can't get benefits and start covering issues like the deficit more frequently.

    Not blaming Bush for the mess we're in, is like not blaming a train engineer for a fatal train wreck because he's no longer driving the train.

    by JML9999 on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:13:16 PM PDT

  •  He looks like a guy in my high school yearbook! (0+ / 0-)

    What an asshole!

    "So, am I right or what?"

    by itzik shpitzik on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:19:22 PM PDT

  •  Wow. "limited Federal Reserve, deregulation" (0+ / 0-)

    Can the GOP get more insane? We are in a lot of trouble if this is the new paradigm - crazy, bachelors-educated, crony financiers and their mob.

  •  Hovde has to be the most recognized name in WI (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    badlands, NoMoreLies

    His commercials have been everywhere, and I mean everywhere. You cannot get away from him. His ads cleverly portray him as the adult in the room, above the political fray. If you listen closely, you can pick out the extreme RW agenda that he's riding on Walker's recent success, but I think people are so burned out by the recall, that Hovde's name is the only thing that's sticking out in people's minds. Interestingly, the media is largely ignoring Hovde, preferring to tout Thompson over Baldwin (although the Youtube clips of Thompson's past support of health care mandates has them squirming in their seats). But Hovde has been flying under the radar here, and if you knew nothing about him and turned the sound off on your TV, he looks like a wholesome devoted family man, the kind of guy you'd like to have representing you in office.

    "Politics is the entertainment branch of industry". Frank Zappa

    by macleme on Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 07:30:22 PM PDT

  •  Fresh blood in the WI GOP is worrisome (0+ / 0-)

    One benefit to 15 months of recall pushback is that WI Republican voters are fragmented over their foster of well-known politicians. There has been no overall enthusiasm for  any of the retreads currently seeing the Senate seat. And the poster-boy for the Walker administration, Jeff Fitzgerald, is dead last and falling. That is an indicator that Walker is not as "beloved" as some Republicans tell themselves he is.

    So I am not surprised to see the unknown here shoot up to the top. If this guy has staying power, then the WI GOP might have a name they all can support w/o holding their noses.

    That is if this does not turn out to be a version of the GOP Presidential primary, when every whackadoodle had his or her day in the sun.

    I hope for the whackadoodle but I fear the fresh-face factor.

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