While there is scant presidential polling on this Thursday, what little exists looks pretty solid for Barack Obama, on balance.
However, that's not the headline story today. The headline is that the right wing of the GOP looks primed to pull off a coup over another establishment Republican candidate. And this time, it does not appear likely to bite them on the ass in the general election.
On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-44)
NATIONAL (Pew): Obama d. Romney (50-43)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)
NORTH CAROLINA (Myers Research for Project New America—D): Romney d. Obama (49-48)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
HI-SEN (Benenson Strategy Group for Hirono): Mazie Hirono (D) 53, Linda Lingle (R) 41
HI-SEN (Voter/Consumer Research for Lingle): Ed Case (D) 41, Linda Lingle (R) 40; Lingle 45, Mazie Hirono (D) 40
HI-SEN—D (Voter/Consumer Research for Lingle): Mazie Hirono 40, Ed Case 39
NV-04 (Tarrance Group for Tarkanian): Danny Tarkanian (R) 47, Steven Horsford (D) 41
ND-SEN (Rasmussen): Rick Berg (R) 49, Heidi Heitkamp (D) 40
OK-02—R (Cole Hargraves Snodgrass for Mullin): Markwayne Mullin 57, George Faught 20
TX-SEN—R (PPP): Ted Cruz 49, David Dewhurst 44
TX-SEN—R (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United): Ted Cruz 47, David Dewhurst 38
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...
When Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst led after round one of the Texas congressional primaries in late May, the general assumption was that he would be the betting favorite in a runoff with right-wing darling Ted Cruz. Dewhurst had led Cruz 45-34 in the initial primary. In addition, polls showed that supporters of third-place finisher Tom Leppert (13 percent of the vote) were far more likely to back Dewhurst.
At the time (when asked about it at our panel discussion at Netroots Nation), I noted that Cruz had an ace in the hole—much more motivated supporters. Dewhurst may well be the choice of the silent majority in the Lone Star State, but Cruz's supporters would crawl on their tummies over busted glass to support their candidate.
Or they'll go vote in the dead of summer in Texas, which is almost the same thing.
And that seems to be exactly what is taking place. PPP's survey, out today, notes that while Cruz has a slight lead overall (five points), he has a lead of over 20 points among those voters who self-identify as highly motivated to vote. In what promises to be a reasonably low turnout affair (as runoff elections always seem to be), that would seem to play right into Cruz's hands.
And, unlike races like Indiana 2012 and Delaware (and Colorado ... and Nevada) 2010, a nod to the right flank is highly unlikely to hurt the GOP here. Democrats have a runoff of their own, with Paul Sadler and Grady Yarbrough competing for the Democratic line on the ballot. Sadler is a former state legislator, but he has raised virtually no money. The most recent FEC reports show that either Cruz or Dewhurst would start the general with a roughly 70-to-1 cash on hand edge. To say that either Sadler or Yarbrough (who has not filed an FEC report yet) would be an enormous underdog would be quite the understatement.
In other polling news ...
- With two polls today, we get an object lesson in the art of the internal polling retaliatory strike. About 24 hours ago (just after the Wednesday polling Wrap was posted), Hawaiian GOP Senate hopeful Linda Lingle dropped a poll showing her with a slight lead over Democratic frontrunner Mazie Hirono. The poll also showed Hirono up by just a single point over former Rep. Ed Case in the Democratic primary. Team Hirono gave Lingle about ... I dunno ... 19 hours before they fired off the counterstrike: a slightly dusty poll (3 weeks old) showing Hirono up double digits on Lingle. From the looks of it, Hirono polled the race, and wasn't planning on releasing it until Lingle dropped such contrary numbers.
- Speaking of counterstrikes, Democrats are no doubt hoping that state legislator Steven Horsford has one of his own in the friendly confines of Clark County, Nevada. That's because GOP nominee Danny Tarkanian laid down a marker in what is nominally a hostile district (Obama +15 in 2008). Tark's poll gives him a six-point edge over Horsford in the Nevada 4th district. Worth noting, however, we do have something close to an apples-to-apples comparison here. Team Tark polled the race late last year (albeit that one was a P.O.S. poll), and found Horsford down 47-36. So, I suppose, this is an improvement. But in a blue district, Democrats would really rather see a poll showing Tarkanian trailing in the race.
- We've almost reached the end of the Wrap without any presidential nums, so a quick shout out to the new Pew Research poll, which gives Obama a 50-43 edge over Mitt Romney. For those interested in comparisons, that is an improvement for the incumbent, who led the Republican nominee by four points the last time around. Notably, the same poll gave Obama an approval spread that followed the topline results pretty closely. That stands in pretty strong contrast to the Rasmussen and Gallup daily trackers. In the Gallup tracker, for example, Obama leads Romney by three, but has job approval numbers that are actually slightly underwater (45/47). Either scenario is plausible, of course. If you buy the theory that presidential elections are a referendum on the incumbent, then the Pew numbers make a lot of sense. If you believe that this election is a choice, and not a referendum, then the relative unpopularity of Mitt Romney would make the Gallup numbers (and, to a lesser extent, the Ras numbers) believable.