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Here is a quick list of the even-numbered districts, which will be up in 2014.

SD-02 (North Coast): Noreen Evans (D)
SD-04 (Northern Sacramento Valley): Doug LaMalfa (R) - currently running for CA-01, but will almost guaranteed be succeeded by another Republican.
SD-06 (Sacramento): Darrell Steinberg (D)
SD-08 (Sierras): Tom Berryhill (R)
SD-10 (Hayward/Fremont): Open; safe DEM
SD-12 (Western Central Valley): Anthony Cannella (R)
SD-14 (Fresno/Kings/Bakersfield): Michael Rubio (D)
SD-16 (Bakersfield/San Bern County): Jean Fuller (R)
SD-18 (San Fernando Valley): Open; safe DEM
SD-20 (Pomona/Ontario/Fontana): Open; safe DEM
SD-22 (West Covina/El Monte/Baldwin Park): Ed Hernandez (D)
SD-24 (Downtown/East L.A.): Kevin DeLeon (D)
SD-26 (Coast from West Hollywood to Palos Verdes): Ted Lieu (D)
SD-28 (Riverside County): Brian Nestande (R)
SD-30 (Culver City): Curren Price (D)
SD-32 (Gateway Cities and Buena Park): Open; safe DEM
SD-34 (Seal Beach/Garden Grove/Santa Ana): Open; safe GOP
SD-36 (San Clemente to Oceanside): Open; safe GOP
SD-38 (Most of San Diego County): Joel Anderson (R)
SD-40 (Imperial County/Chula Vista): Ben Hueso (D)

Here are my ratings for the State Senate races.

California's 1st State Senate District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Northeastern corner of the state (Redding, Folsom, South Lake Tahoe)
November ballot: Ted Gaines (R-inc) vs. Julie Griffith-Flatter (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 59-32
Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37
President 2008: McCain 54-42

California's 3rd State Senate District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Napa Valley (Petaluma, Vallejo, Davis)
November ballot: Lois Wolk (D-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 57-35
Governor 2010: Brown 60-34
President 2008: Obama 66-31

California's 5th State Senate District - TOSS-UP
Geography: San Joaquin County (Stockton, Tracy), Modesto
November ballot: Bill Berryhill (R) vs. Cathleen Galgiani (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-42
Governor 2010: Brown 47-46
President 2008: Obama 53-44

Description: This will be one of the Senate races to watch closely, with two Assemblymembers facing off. Berryhill won twice in an Obama-voting district, while Galgiani recently came out as a lesbian and is vocal in her support for high-speed rail. Democrats have had a better history of winning victories in districts that included Stockton though.

California's 7th State Senate District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Concord, Antioch, Livermore
November ballot: Mark DeSaulnier (D-inc) vs. Mark Meuser (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 52-41
Governor 2010: Brown 53-41
President 2008: Obama 62-35

California's 9th State Senate District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Richmond, Berkeley, Oakland
November ballot: Loni Hancock (D-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 82-12
Governor 2010: Brown 83-12
President 2008: Obama 86-11

California's 11th State Senate District - SAFE DEM
Geography: San Francisco, Daly City
November ballot: Mark Leno (D-inc) vs. Harmeet Dhillon (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 75-16
Governor 2010: Brown 77-18
President 2008: Obama 82-14

California's 13th State Senate District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: San Francisco Peninsula (San Mateo, Redwood City, Sunnyvale)
November ballot: Jerry Hill (D) vs. Sally Lieber (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 65-29
Governor 2010: Brown 64-31
President 2008: Obama 73-24

Description: This intraparty battle does not have much drama. Hill represents more of this district, so he has an advantage.

California's 15th State Senate District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Silicon Valley (San Jose, Cupertino, Los Gatos)
November ballot: Jim Beall (D) vs. Joe Coto (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 61-32
Governor 2010: Brown 59-35
President 2008: Obama 68-29

Description: This intraparty battle has a much deeper split, with Beall hailing from the richer western side and Coto the poorer eastern side. Beall being a current member of the Assembly probably has an edge.

California's 17th State Senate District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Northern Central Coast (Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Luis Obispo)
November ballot: Bill Monning (D) vs. Larry Beaman (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 54-28
Governor 2010: 56-38
President 2008: Obama 64-33

California's 19th State Senate District - LIKELY DEM
Geography: Southern Central Coast (Santa Maria, Santa Barbara, Oxnard)
November ballot: Hannah-Beth Jackson (D) vs. Mike Stoker (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 49-43
Governor 2010: Brown 49-43
President 2008: Obama 60-37

Description: Jackson made it out of a bruising primary. Stoker came close in a Santa Barbara-based Assembly district in 2010, but with turnout at UCSB likely to be much higher, it is unlikely he would get much closer.

California's 21st State Senate District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Victorville
November ballot: Steve Knight (R) vs. Star Moffatt (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-36
Governor 2010: Whitman 51-39
President 2008: McCain 50-47

California's 23rd State Senate District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Inland Empire (Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Hemet)
November ballot: Bill Emmerson (R-inc) vs. Melissa Ruth O'Donnell (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-37
Governor 2010: Whitman 50-40
President 2008: McCain 51-46

California's 25th State Senate District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Glendale, Glendora, Pasadena
November ballot: Carol Liu (D-inc) vs. Gilbert Gonzales (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 51-41
Governor 2010: Brown 52-40
President 2008: Obama 60-36

California's 27th State Senate District - LEAN DEM
Geography: Western San Fernando Valley, Eastern Ventura County (Thousand Oaks, Woodland Hills, Simi Valley)
November ballot: Fran Pavley (D-inc) vs. Todd Zink (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-46
Governor 2010: Whitman 47.2-46.5
President 2008: Obama 57-40

Description: Pavley's district became much more Ventura-centric and less Democratic. Zink won more of the June vote, so the November vote might go more to Pavley.

California's 29th State Senate District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Diamond Bar, Chino Hills, Fullerton
November ballot: Bob Huff (R-inc) vs. Greg Diamond (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-38
Governor 2010: Whitman 53-39
President 2008: McCain 49-48

California's 31st State Senate District - TOSS-UP
Geography: Corona, Riverside, Moreno Valley
November ballot: Jeff Miller (R) vs. Richard Roth (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 45.6-45.5
Governor 2010: Brown 48.2-43.1
President 2008: Obama 56-41

Description: This is the Senate version of the uncharted Riverside-centric territory with a known Republican entity.

California's 33rd State Senate District - GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Long Beach, South Gate, Lynwood
November ballot: Ricardo Lara (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 69-22
Governor 2010: Brown 70-22
President 2008: 75-21

California's 35th State Senate District - SAFE DEM
Geography: Carson, San Pedro, Torrance
November ballot: Rod Wright (D-inc) vs. Charlotte Svolos
Senate 2010: Boxer 71-20
Governor 2010: Brown 72-21
President 2008: Obama 77-20

California's 37th State Senate District - SAFE GOP
Geography: Central Orange County (Orange, Irvine, Costa Mesa)
November ballot: Mimi Walters (R-inc) vs. Steve Young (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-34
Governor 2010: Whitman 52-35
President 2008: McCain 49-47

California's 39th State Senate District - SAFE DEM
Geography: San Diego, Coronado
November ballot: Marty Block (D) vs. George Plescia (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 49-43
Governor 2010: Brown 49-44
President 2008: Obama 60-37

My predictions are 13 DEM seats, 5 GOP seats, and 2 toss-ups. The other seats are 12 DEM and 8 GOP, so the best Democrats can do is 27-13, enough for 2/3 (though it is unlikely they will get there in the Assembly; I will post that diary later), and the best Republicans can do is status-quo 25-15. (Spoiler: Interesting that the best-case Republican scenario in the Senate is status quo, while the best case Democratic scenario in the Assembly is status-quo, 52-28.)

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    29 / F / Post-Modern / new CA-31 (hometown) / UT-01 (current) / SSP/RRH: californianintexas
    http://www.theelectionsgeek.blogspot.com

    by SoCalGal23 on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 12:17:33 AM PDT

  •  Good analysis, but you did hurt my feelings a bit (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Simplify, Zack from the SFV

    (my signature will explain why).

    Pro-Occupy Democratic Candidate for California State Senate, District 29 & Occupy OC Civic Liaison.

    "I love this goddamn country, and we're going to take it back." -- Saul Alinsky

    by Seneca Doane on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 12:27:00 AM PDT

    •  I'm sure it's been asked of you before, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Seneca Doane

      but do you see any Calif. Democratic Party support, even if other than financial, in challenging the lead Republican state senator?

      Government and laws are the agreement we all make to secure everyone's freedom.

      by Simplify on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 12:40:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  quibbles (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hankmeister, KingofSpades

    You say the Dem ceiling is 27, but that appears to be after 2014. The 2012 baseline from 2010 races is 14D-6R so for the next legislature their ceiling is 29.

    I would guess that district 5 is tilt R or even lean R. Galgiani barely cleared 40% in the primary. It's a young and heavily Hispanic district so it should get an especially big turnout jump in November, but that's an awful lot of ground to make up.

    27 I think is bordering on likely D. Pavley got nearly 49% among the GOP-skewed primary electorate and should win with room to spare in November as long as she doesn't drop the ball.

    31 should be lean D, as the two Dems combined for nearly 49%. It's not quite as safe as 27 since it's conceivable that some of Clute's voters might not support Roth in the general, but that shouldn't be too much of an issue.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 09:04:42 AM PDT

    •  Since we really aren't at any risk (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      of having a net loss in seats this election

      I'd put our ceiling at 29 seats

      we get to 27 (2/3rds)  seates  by easily picking up SD 17 and SD 19.

      We also have the opportunity to gain two more seats with the two tossups: SD 5 and SD 31

      I'd rate SD 31 as tossup right now mainly because Jeff Miller is a seasoned incumbent, Roth will have his work cut out for him picking up Clute's voters. I hope they do some sort of unity rally between the dems. The main issue during the primaries was that Roth was labeled as a DINO, but the way I see it is he's the best chance we have winning down here. Clute was a tad bit too liberal for this sector while Roth is a much needed fresh face, a real outsider.

      Now as for the next election it's crucial we get over 27 in 2012 because we're almost guaranteed to lose Lou Correa's open O.C. seat.  Thus we need Roth or Galgiani to win order to have 2/3rds in 2014

      “Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”- President Eisenhower

      by lordpet8 on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 10:41:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  seats* (0+ / 0-)

        “Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”- President Eisenhower

        by lordpet8 on Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 10:42:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  SD03 has opponent (0+ / 0-)

    California's 3rd State Senate District - GUARANTEED DEM
    Geography: Napa Valley (Petaluma, Vallejo, Davis)
    November ballot: Lois Wolk (D-inc)
    Senate 2010: Boxer 57-35
    Governor 2010: Brown 60-34
    President 2008: Obama 66-31

    http://www.sos.ca.gov/...

    STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 3
    LOIS WOLK* Democratic
    California State Senator
    FRANK MIRANDA Republican
    No Ballot Designation

    STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 9
    LONI HANCOCK* Democratic
    State Senator
    MARY CATHERINE MCILROY Peace and Freedom

    STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 33
    RICARDO LARA Democratic
    State Legislator
    LEE H. CHAUSER Peace and Freedom

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