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Leading Off:

OH-Sen: The Ohio Fraternal Order of Police is the state's largest law enforcement union, with some 25,000 active and retired members. It also hasn't backed a Democrat for Senate since 1988. But thanks to the GOP assault on worker's rights, embodied by last year's successful fight to overturn the anti-collective bargaining law known as SB5, the OH FOP is endorsing Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown for re-election. The group's president praised Brown as "one of our strongest allies" in the battle against SB5.

Senate:

HI-Sen, MT-Sen, VA-Sen: Believe `em if you want: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is claiming to have poll results which show Republicans Linda Lingle, Denny Rehberg, and George Allen up anywhere from five to seven points in their respective races. But there are absolutely no details offered about the surveys: no field dates, no pollster names, no sample sizes, nothing. Reporters should demand that information before publishing self-serving numbers like these. One additional note: These bogus "polls" are being released in connection with the new set of four ads the Chamber just put out, which means they're missing North Dakota. It's the poll that didn't bark.

IN-Sen: Republican Richard Mourdock, whose premature response(s) to the Supreme Court's ruling on the Affordable Care Act made him the butt of a lot of jokes, has decided he wants to sink his teeth into a few good Obamacare lies nonetheless. By way of attacking Dem Rep. Joe Donnelly (who voted for the bill), Mourdock claims, among other things, that the law "cuts Medicare services to seniors by $500 billion." Usually, though, Republicans try to elide things a little more, just claiming that the ACA "cuts $500 billion from Medicare." Mourdock's construction—that it cuts "Medicare services to seniors"—is even more of a lie. The $500 billion in savings (not cuts), as the WaPo has explained, "are wrung from health-care providers, not Medicare beneficiaries."

MO-Sen: Interesting: The Dem-aligned Majority PAC is out with a new ad attacking businessman John Brunner over new revelations that he saddled his family company with mountains of debt and nearly drove it out of business. It's an obvious line of attack, but I'm wondering why Majority PAC is hitting Brunner now, since he's in the midst of a primary. Would Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill prefer to face ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman or Rep. Todd Akin in the general instead? I could believe it. Despite Brunner's flaws, he can spend a lot of his own money, and he's also never held office before.

NJ-Sen: Quinnipiac has another New Jersey survey out, finding Dem Sen. Bob Menendez with his best showing against GOP state Sen. Joe Kyrillos since their very first poll of the contest early this year. Menendez is up 47-34, versus 45-35 in May. (That inaugural February poll had Menendez leading 49-34.) Menendez's favorables are still soft (37-25), but Kyrillos remains completely unknown.

NM-Sen: Defenders of Wildlife, which has been part of a super-team of environmental groups that have lit in to Republican Heather Wilson on the airwaves, is also spending some $19K on new attack mailers. The flyers don't appear to be on their website, though.

NV-Sen: This piece from The Hill's Cameron Joseph is just amazing. Sen. Dean Heller is literally refusing to take responsibility for attack ads he's running against Dem Rep. Shelley Berkley, acting as though he isn't responsible for his "campaign" and that it's just some random super PAC he has no control over:

When The Hill pointed out he was running attack ads that say Berkley "pushed legislation and twisted arms of federal regulators, advocating policies for financial gain, saving her husband's industry millions," Heller interjected.

"The campaign is. If you have any questions or comments it'd probably be better if you directed those towards the campaign," he said. "Just talk to the campaign, they're the ones dealing specifically with this issue. Right now, I'm just worried about jobs and the economy."

What's more, DCCyclone totally nailed it:
Sen. Dean Heller's (R-Nev.) campaign has been running hard-hitting ads against his opponent, Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.)—but he refused to echo their criticisms on Tuesday, instead referring all questions about the issue to his campaign. [...]

"I haven't made any comments on it. It's one of those things that I let the Ethics Committee do its job and I'll do my job," the freshman senator said when asked about the investigation.

As DC suggested, Heller's own involvement in protecting Nevada's only kidney transplant center—which is at the center of this mostly manufactured controversy—makes it very hard for him to directly take on Berkley, who led the (successful) fight to keep the program alive. With Heller forced to take this approach, Republicans are going to have a difficult time getting a lot of traction with this line of attack.

OH-Sen: Okay, this is quite funny.

TX-Sen: Is this meant to un-do the Craig James endorsement? Former Dallas mayor Tom Leppert, the third-place finisher (by a big margin) in May's GOP primary, has now given his backing to Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in the runoff. Remarkably, Dewhurst's press release still touts the James endorsement at the end! As Burnt Orange Report's David Feigen said, "The only question is how many votes the James endorsement costs Dewhurst...."

Meanwhile, the Club for Growth just poured another $450K into their buy backing this ad that attacks Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. That takes them to about $2 million spent on behalf of Ted Cruz in the GOP Senate runoff, a good bit more than the $1.5 mil they originally promised.

WI-Sen: EMILY's List is spending another $25K on online ads in the Wisconsin GOP primary, and once again, they're attacking every single Republican candidate. Oy.

Gubernatorial:

MO-Gov: Gov. Jay Nixon (D): $2.1 mil raised, $7.6 mil cash-on-hand; Dave Spence (R): $500K raised (plus $500K self-loan), $1.2 mil cash-on-hand. The DGA also donated $500K to Nixon on July 1, after the end of the fundraising quarter.

NJ-Gov: As with their new Virginia poll, Quinnipiac didn't test any matchups against GOP Gov. Chris Christie in New Jersey, but there are some interesting details contained in the survey. Quinnipiac asked respondents: "What one word best describes your impression" of the governor; the winner, by a longshot, was "bully," with 185 mentions. "Arrogant" was second with 75, and "tough" third with 50. (Props to the seven people who weren't afraid to tell a live interviewer that "asshole" was the first word that popped into their minds.) On a more objective level, Quinnipiac's been asking "Would you describe Governor Christie as being more of a bully, or more of a leader?" for a while. Christie rates leader over bully 50-45, but that's a lot worse than his 54-39 mark in April, and the lowest since June of 2010.

VA-Gov: Quinnipiac also has a Virginia poll out, but it's mostly focused on the recent UVA saga and there aren't any head-to-heads. They do have some approval numbers on the two 2013 GOP gubernatorial candidates who also happen to be current office-holders, though: LG Bill Bolling and AG Ken Cuccinelli.

WA-Gov: Yet more financial reports from the two main candidates in Washington's gubernatorial race: GOPer Rob McKenna is pulling away a smidge, raising $1 million in the June 1-July 16 period compared with $826K for Dem Jay Inslee. (Inslee's number includes another $179K contribution from the state party, who've regularly moved large increments over to him to help him keep pace with McKenna.) Inslee has $2.7 mil on hand compared with $3.8 mil for McKenna, though Inslee just ran a probably-expensive one-minute introductory ad. Also on the WA-Gov front, that hapless McKenna staffer caught on Monday with racist tweets on her Twitter account is gone, though she claims to have resigned rather than being thrown overboard. (David Jarman)

House:

AZ-09: Fresh off an endorsement from Bill Clinton (whom he worked for as a White House aide in the 1990s), Democrat Andrei Cherny is out with his first ad which touts his relationship with the Big Dog. The spot is also narrated by former state AG Terry Goddard, who you may remember from his unsuccessful 2010 run for governor.

CT-04: What at one point had been a fairly busy field of GOP hopefuls looking to take on third-term Dem Rep. Jim Himes is now down to just one, consulting firm executive Steve Obsitnik. Obsitnik turned in a dominant performance at the state party convention back in May, which led all of the other contenders to drop out rather than challenge him in a primary. Call it a devastating success, though: A good chunk of Obsitnik's fundraising in the second quarter (at least $43K) was money that he could only spend if he in fact had an actual primary contest on his hands. Instead, he has to refund it. That means he raised less than $200K in the third quarter, rather than the $236K he reported, a figured that the Himes campaign called "padded." For his part, Himes pulled in $553K.

FL-16: GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan is trying to show that months of terrible headlines, both local and national, about his serious ethics issues haven't dented his image. He's released a new survey, from Public Opinion Strategies, showing him up 54-32 over Democrat Keith Fitzgerald. The poll also says Buchanan sports a 53-33 favorability rating. A March internal for Buchanan had similar toplines, 58-36, but a Fitzgerald poll from February pegged the race a much tighter 49-38.

This time, though, Fitzgerald's campaign says they don't have their poll with which to respond, and if you check their new FEC report, you'll see they haven't spent money on a poll since early April. Considering that neither candidate has gone on the air yet, that's probably a smart decision—a new poll would probably just show the same thing (much as Buchanan's did, whether it's right or wrong.) And only once the ad wars begin in earnest would I expect Buchanan to start really suffering in the polls.

FL-18: GOP freshman Allen West has released his second ad, a paean to "good education" in which he also deploys a few phrases that burgeoning conservatives start to fall in love with around the 10th grade. West says that in his upbringing in inner-city Atlanta, he had the choice between "economic freedom" and "economic dependency" (code for welfare, of course). He adds that "every child should have the equality of opportunity I did"—the opposite of which is "equality of result," which is code for "doing anything to help the less fortunate."

MI-11: Republican Nancy Cassis is out with a pair of ads (her first) ahead of the August Republican primary for ex-Rep. Thad McCotter's now-vacant seat. The first spot is a strangely amusing (you might even say catchy) jingle reminding people to vote for her as a write-in candidate. ("Nothing fancy—write in Nancy!"). The second attacks Kerry Bentivolio, the only guy whose name will actually appear on the ballot, for supposedly supporting amnesty for illegal aliens, and for allegedly "causing his business to go bankrupt" by "racking up debt."

MI-14: Dem Rep. Gary Peters is out with another ad, touting his work to save auto industry jobs and once again mentioning his relationship with President Obama (along with another picture of the two of them together). Obama, of course, has not endorsed in this member-vs.-member race (Rep. Hansen Clarke is also running here), but Peters obviously is smart to link himself to the president given that the 14th is both heavily blue and majority black.

MO-01: I'm by no means a Facebook aficionado, but this story is pretty funny. As Leah Greenbaum of the Riverrfont Times puts it, Rep. Lacy Clay is in the midst of "a gloriously shit-slinging social media campaign" designed to highlight differences between himself and fellow Rep. Russ Carnahan, his opponent in the Democratic primary. What's so amusing is that Clay used Facebook's tagging feature to link to Carnahan in every post they put up attacking him. That meant that all of Clay's negative hits were appearing on Carnahan's own page! When Carnahan finally realized what was going on, he made an even dopier move: he removed his page from Facebook altogether, even though he could have just blocked Clay from tagging him (or removed the tags). You might say, "ah, the perils of social media!" but really, this is just "the perils of not having a 14-year-old kid to help out your campaign online."

TX-33: While I think most observers expect state Rep. Marc Veasey to handily win the Democratic runoff in Texas's new 33rd Congressional district, it never hurts to get a little outside help. The Realtors (a somewhat unpredictable third-party group in that their spending tends to be parochial rather than partisan) are throwing down $150K on ads supporting Veasey—who himself is a realtor. I haven't seen a copy of the ad, and I don't know if they're in the habit of posting their television spots online, but perhaps they might do so here. The Realtors have also shelled out $23K to Hart Research for a poll of the race, though I'd be surprised if it ever saw the light of day.

WA-01: Most candidates would be psyched to get a six-figure IE on their behalf, but it's turned into a bit of a PR disaster for Laura Ruderman, one of the many Dems jostling for this open seat. The problem is that the source of much of the funding for the Progress for Washington PAC is... Ruderman's mom, leaving Ruderman the punchline for easy jokes about helicopter parents. At any rate, Progress for Washington's total spending is up to almost $200K now, including another $21K for mailers and $76K in media buys for a new TV ad.

That leaves Ruderman in the awkward position of having to publicly deplore her mom's ad (which, if she's playing by the IE rules, she had to have had no previous knowledge of) and call for the ad (which morphs Suzan DelBene's face into Mitt Romney, because, y'know, they both have money) to be taken down. Don't confuse this spot with the first ad that just came out from Ruderman's own campaign, though. Bizarrely, that ad features a prominent appearance by, of all people, Ruderman's mom, talking about her battle with cancer.

There's also a new poll from the Steve Hobbs campaign, which is noteworthy because it shows Hobbs (who, despite being the only current state legislator in the Dem cast of characters, has the least money in the field and has been mostly an afterthought until recently) getting some traction. Hobbs was recently endorsed by the Seattle Times, though, which seemed to raise his profile, enough that he's right in the thick of things now. According to the survey (from DMA Market Research), John Koster, the only Republican in the race, is a lock to advance from the Top 2, at 30, but there's now a three-way pileup of Dems fighting for the second slot, with Darcy Burner at 13, Hobbs at 12, and DelBene at 11, with Ruderman lagging at 5.

This poll also points to a game-theory explanation as to why Ruderman is trying to take down DelBene, rather than Burner, who's been the ostensible Dem frontrunner so far. The center-left space that DelBene and Ruderman share is a bit larger than the left segment (which Burner has locked down) or the center segment (which belongs to Hobbs), but DelBene or Ruderman need to consolidate most of that turf (at the other's expense) in order to have enough votes to advance past Burner and Hobbs. (David Jarman)

Other Races:

South Carolina SD-41: Tuesday night's special election in this decidedly Republican district turned out to be incredibly tight: Republican Walter Hundley finished with a 14-vote lead over Democrat Paul Tinkler (3,112 to 3,098), while Green Party candidate Sue Edward pulled in 53 votes. Because of the ultra-tight margin, a recount will be conducted on Friday. (H/t: Johnny Longtorso.)

Grab Bag:

Pennsylvania: Here's a follow-up to part of our previous digest, where we looked at county-by-county registration changes in Pennsylvania over the years 1998-2012: the Dem gains look a little less impressive when you take only the years 2008 to 2012 in consideration. The Dems' 1.2 million person registration edge from 2008 is a little narrower now, closer by 168,000... maybe not that surprising, since 2008 was something of a high-water mark in many ways. (David Jarman)

Polltopia: Mark Blumenthal has a helpful piece on the controversy of whether pollsters should, at this point, be using a likely voter model and a registered voter model. (Razz a conservative about Rasmussen's out-of-whack polling and he'll probably respond that Rasmussen is the only pollster using a likely voter model now, meaning that the other pollsters are just camouflaging Barack Obama's certain doom which won't become more apparent until all the other pollsters switch to LVs, too.) The reality is, though, that most pollsters don't use likely voter models until the last couple months before an election because doing so beforehand constitutes unacceptable guesswork. As one of the pollsters Blumenthal interviewed puts it, "people are notoriously poor predictors of their own likelihood of voting on Election Day." (Blumenthal also gets a well-known GOP internal pollster to go on the record saying that RVs are the better bet.) (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Q has the presidential tied compared to O up 8 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, shoeless, 4Freedom

    in their last poll.

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 05:12:35 AM PDT

    •  Or +5 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      PPP had Obama up 8 but I thought Quinn had it +5.

      •  Oh, and this is Virginia! (9+ / 0-)

        Gotta remember the state, guys!

        Yes it was O+5 in the June Q-poll in Virginia, and O+8 in March.

        Steve Shepherd of National Journal Hotline both tweets and writes in his online story that the difference is mostly the racial sampling, that this time Q-poll is 4 points more white (73 compared to 69).  That's everything in Virginia, where Obama will lose whites 60-40 and win nonwhites 80-20.  The 2008 exit poll said the electorate was 70% white and 20% black.  Most importantly, this Q-poll is only 17% black when census is 20%, same as 2008 turnout per the exit poll.

        (FWIW, I suspect the exit poll inaccurately lowballed black vote share and inflated other nonwhite vote share...I bet black vote share was 21% or 22%, and other nonwhites were 8-9% rather than 10%.)

        I guarantee black turnout won't fall below census in Virginia!

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 05:50:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I was wondering what the numbers referred to. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone
        •  March is irrelevant now (4+ / 0-)

          in comparing polls to previous polls from the same pollster, we really have to focus on polls taken from May or maybe late April, when Romney secured the nomination and the GE campaign in fact began. The repub base was still not consolidated in March.

          •  It's not irrelevant in these polls (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Larsstephens

            Romney had consolidated the GOP base in Q-poll's Virginia numbers already in March.

            This comparison isn't irrelevant at all, rather it shows the importance of the turnout model.

            Obama and Mitt have run roughly even with indies in Virginia this whole time, and both consolidated their bases long ago.  That's true in Q-poll's work and in other work.  The differences have been in racial and partisan composition.  And that's where I feel pretty good about the state in November.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:58:38 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Acutually, That's Everything EveryWhere In America (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          4Freedom, sacman701
          That's everything in Virginia, where Obama will lose whites 60-40 and win nonwhites 80-20.
          Other, non-Southern, states where Obama "lost" the White vote, yet won the state, are PA, OH, IN and, surprisingly, NJ. Obama also won FL, NC, NM, and NV though he "lost" the White vote in each of them. If Obama had lost those states, then PalenInsanity would have won the election.

          At best, Obama is gonna win 40% of the White vote in 2012 - he won 43% in 2008. Face reality people, the GOP is America's White Peoples Party. And they have been since at least 1972:

          I am not now, nor have I ever been, a member of the Republican Party.

          by OnlyWords on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:48:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  demographics seem off (0+ / 0-)

          Looks like they way oversampled independents who are probably mainly disgruntled republicans. The Q poll is just all over the place this year.
          By the way Rasmussen has Kaine up 46-44 in the senate race so those chamber of commerce polls are garbage.

          •  The dispositive rasmussen! (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            dufffbeer

            Can I suggest we all just ignore rasmussen due to their weirdness and apparent bias, rather than just citing rasmussen when it suits our purposes due to their weirdness and apparent bias? I see a decent amount of the latter around here.

        •  hadn't seen difference in racial composition (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          that's reassuring

          Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

          by Bharat on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 03:40:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Could It Really Be That The Bain Issue...... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      ....is hurting Obama for looking to aggressive and persecuting Romney.  Every shred of polling data this week is showing Romney's numbers improving.

      •  Every shred? (0+ / 0-)

        Hyperbole I think.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 10:01:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I see pretty static polling (0+ / 0-)

        more likely it is that the voters are, for the most part, divided into those who like Obama and don't care about Solyndra, those who like Romney and don't care about Bain, and those who feel it's too early to care about this race and will be undecided until they tune in. I've known a good number of the third type.

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

        by fearlessfred14 on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 11:06:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Funny clip about polling (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    I watched while looking through clips of Yes Minister, the best show about politics I know of.

  •  If even Magellan couldn't show... (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, bythesea, LordMike, askew, itskevin

    A lead for Romney, and could only show a tiny lead for Heller, then Nevada really isn't looking so great for Republicans. This is what I've been saying all along. Not even this UMC/Medicare/kidney non-troversy can knock down Shelley Berkley.

  •  Unemployment claims jumped to 386 000 (0+ / 0-)

    Looks like last week's good number was an outlier.

    •  Seasonal noise (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, KingofSpades

      Everyone warned last week that this time of year, there is volatility from seasonals.  Even one bull I follow, Ian Shepherdson, tweeted the warning last Thursday within an hour before the report came out that a big drop could happen but would be an illusion.  He was right on the big drop, and right that it was an illusion.

      The one upside in the economy right now is an ironic one:  housing.  Housing has been the main drag all these years, but now it's coming around for real.  But alas, it's a smaller share of the economy now, so it provides less of a lift as it's coming around, and it's otherwise no offset to other fears out there about Europe, the fiscal cliff, and consumer demand.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 05:53:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  And btw, it IS too early... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, askew

    For pollsters to switch to likely voter models. And even when they do, they need to be careful about who they throw out of the model. Remember that just because one group of voters is only labeled as "59% likely to vote" does NOT mean that none of them will vote.

    •  My view on turnout...... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, revbludge, Ahianne

      I thought about this a lot yesterday, and one thing I'm convinced of is that people understate Democratic turnout this fall.

      Stepping back from insta-polling, the reality of voting behavior is that once people vote, they vote again.  Some skip midterms, many skip specials, but hardly anyone skips a Presidential once they've voted already to join the electorate.  This is revealed in turnout, the fact that raw turnout only increases in Presidentials, and that voting-eligible participation has skyrocketed the last couple Presidentials to 60% in 2004 and 61% in 2008.  People are engaged, they will show.  The notion that snap polls purporting to test "enthusiasm" suggest Hispanics won't show up, as Charlie Cook simple-mindedly suggests, is a cherry-picking of misleading data.

      Along these lines, one thing that occurred to me yesterday is that the Obama turnout machine was actually less than meets the eye in its actual effect last time.  Don't get me wrong, in fact OFA's field work is what secured North Carolina, Indiana, and that lone electoral vote in Nebraska.  But most of the "enthusiastic" turnout for Obama was from people who voted for the first time in 2004, not 2008, and who would've showed up in 2008 for any Democrat who wasn't otherwise personally damaged goods.  And the Hispanic vote share increase was organic, an automatic function of demographic shift, not driven by organic enthusiasm or candidates and campaigns.

      All this is to say a couple things.  First, the disparate 2004 turnout machines for Kerry are to be thanked for 2008 turnout at least as much as OFA.  In fact, new voters in 2004 completely smothered the number of new voters in 2008.  Second, this fall we're going to see everyone vote who voted last time, coupled with more automatic shift toward greater nonwhite vote share, for a turnout model that is favorable to us the same as last time.  We will lose some white support for Obama from last time, but we'll gain from nonwhites who make up 1-3 points extra in the electorate compared to last time.

      I find myself increasingly wholly unconcerned about turnout.  And this is to say that this business of who is a "likely" voter will end up being a pointless argument, we'll get the turnout we need.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:02:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The issue we should be concerned about (6+ / 0-)

        is voter suppression. How many voters who do turnout in November will be denied the chance to vote due to new voter ID laws? How many are given 'provisional' ballots that may never be counted? How many places have restricted early voting and will end up with huge lines on Election Day?

        Republicans seized control of a ton or state and local governments in 2010, and their nationwide mission for running elections has been to discourage as many of the 'wrong' voters from being able to vote this year.

        NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

        by bear83 on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:52:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's overblown (0+ / 0-)

          I remember that study from earlier this year that got circulated that claimed several million people "potentially" could be disenfranchised by various new GOP-inspired laws.

          Those laws are odious, but the numbers claimed are complete bullshit.  Most of the people "potentially" affected won't be affected.

          Most of the people who would be affected by them will simply do what's needed to comply with new requirements.  They'll get IDs.  They'll remember to bring them to the polls.  They'll do whatever else one has to do.  State and local political activists and party organizations will help them to make sure it happens.

          This isn't to say that these laws are OK.  They are not.  They are designed specifically to disenfranchise, not to guard against fraud.  There are specific documented cases of indivduals who because of unusual circumstances cannot comply, at least not without legal challenge or other extrastatutory accommodation.

          But the panic on the left is foolish whenever these things are enacted.

          The only place that potentially worries me is Pennsylvania, where three-quarters of a million voters are affected.  But even there, what worries me is less the new law than that state and local party regulars and activists will fail to do the obvious thing:  get the word out that people have to get IDs, and help them get them.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 07:07:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Perhaps one silver lining... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ahianne, bythesea

        Of the total train wreck that was the uncoordinated 527/Dem fiasco in 2004 was that at least they registered a ton of new voters. That was a good foundation to start on.

        Then when Howard Dean became DNC Chair in 2005, he pushed "The 50 State Strategy" that kicked a number of state Dem parties into high gear. It turned out to be an extra boost for Dems in 2006, and it really laid the groundwork for 2008.

        And then, of course, there's OFA. Really, when we put all of this together, we have a field that's not all that bad. And as I always say, these campaigns are really won in the field. As long as OFA scoops up these Dems and turns them out, there's a whole group of states that will be out of reach for Romney (with mine being one of them... What about yours?).

  •  No good news (0+ / 0-)

    We can't argue that this morning's numbers of any type were good for Obama.  We are all cheering the Bain and Tax attacks but they are not showing signs of moving numbers and thus narrative.
    The new jobs claims are especially bad pointing to a bad August job report coming out right after Labor Day when people are really tunes in.
    What is President Obama's rationale for a second term?  I still don't know.

    •  The unemployment claims (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      absdoggy, R30A, 4Freedom, askew, EcosseNJ

      I don't think they mean an August job report that is any worse than the last few job reports.

      The jump in unemployment claims is probably a reversion to the mean after last week's especially low number.

      As far as I'm concerned, safeguarding the PPACA and Dodd-Frank is sufficient rationale for a second term, even disregarding anything he might do in a second term.

    •  Sure we can (0+ / 0-)

      remember gas prices have been rising since last week's surprisingly good 1st-time claims, and that is the downside to any good economic news, it will drive the price of gas up, and that affects people more directly than jobs claims since the great majority of people aren't affected by the later.

      •  Well Now We Have The Worst Of Both Worlds..... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Rising gas prices and a flatlined economy.  The only reason gas prices are going up is because the Europe situation is considered sufficiently patched up for awhile, yet that doesn't necessarily mean things are flush.  It just means that speculators are counting on there not being a near-term trainwreck.

        I posted a blog entry on this about a month ago that with the era of cheap energy over, economic growth of even 3% may never be possible again.  Whenever the business cycle starts to naturally revive, oil speculators are always gonna nuts with the expectation of a recovery and send oil prices soaring and sabotage the recovery.   Rinse and repeat.

        •  Slow growth may be the best thing right now (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, askew

          a big jump in new jobs would bring the speculators into oil like fast-food fries, and as long as there isn't job loss people aren't likely to feel their own situation is threatened. OTOH, gas prices climbing noticeably going into the election would not be helpful.

          I'd like to see more than the <100,000 new jobs per month we've been getting but a sudden surge in job creation would have a down side.

        •  I think you mean (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Ben P

          "Whenever the business cycle starts to naturally revive, supply constraints will send oil prices soaring and sabotage the recovery."

    •  Oh The Bain and Tax Attacks Are Moving the Numbers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      ....towards Romney.  

      Hopefully it's just slow to a matter of the message filtering through slowly but right now it looks like Obama is getting punished for going negative more than Romney is getting punished for being Gordon Gekko.

      •  I don't see any indication of that (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        atdnext, R30A, Ahianne, askew, bythesea

        Why would either of those things help Romney? His own party is calling him out over taxes, so I really don't think that helps in the long wrong. If he can't manage better than a tie in polling, he's not benefiting from anything.

        26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:41:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Cory Booker? (8+ / 0-)

        Let's see.  At the beginning of June, Obama was trailiing in Ohio.  He's now leading.  He was barely ahead in Wisconsin.  He's now ahead by 7.  He also appears to have improved his position in PA.  And, overall, he's put a hurting on Romney's favorables.

        But, yes, the numbers are moving towards Romney.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:47:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Every Poll Released This Week...... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          ....has showed incremental decline for Obama.  Even the Fox poll that showed Obama leading by 5 is down from a 4-point lead in their previous poll.  The media narrative by this weekend will be how the attacks on Bain and Romney's taxes are an epic fail for the Obama campaign and they will cite tightening polls to qualify it.  Be ready for it.

      •  I doubt it (0+ / 0-)

        I think most people just aren't paying attention. I wouldn't worry about any poll until after the conventions are over and people tune in. I think the tax issue will become a problem for Romney by then.

    •  Skip the July report in your gloom and doom (7+ / 0-)

      scenario?

      And NPR has a poll out of 1000 likely voters giving Obama a 47-45 lead.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:40:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, I'm concerned too (11+ / 0-)

      From your comment history, you seem to be concerned an awful lot. Just about every one of your comments is taking some bad news and pointing out your concern over it, or taking good news and downplaying it as something that will be forgotten soon. And you don't know what the rationale is for Obama's second term?

      Gee let's see - instead of getting us into 2 wars and declaring mission accomplished 6 years before the fact, this President effectively finished one war and is ending the other, has managed to walk a balanced line in support of democracy in the Middle East and Libya without getting us into another war, is reducing unnecessary troop levels in Europe, and, oh yeah, killed OBL and decimated his terror network.

      - Dug us out of the biggest hole since the great depression, saved the auto industry, got Dodd-Frank passed that just gave us justice with Capital One's flimflammery over credit cards, etc.  Do you want to go back to the policies that got us in the problem in the first place?
      - Got PPACA done, something no other president has done in over 40 years - you want to go backwards on health care?
      - Ended DADT, and has done so much for the LGBT community that even the Advocate respected it enough to endorse him here in 2012.  And now, as gay marriage moves forward, his second term will be the way to secure it.
      - Gave us Justices Sotomayor and Kagan versus Shitbag Alito - you want more Alitos in the next 4 years?

      I could go on, but you get the picture.  Or maybe you are still "concerned" and still don't know what the rationale is for Obama's second term. Perhaps your concerns will be relieved better over at Red State.

      Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear. ~William E. Gladstone, 1866

      by absdoggy on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:43:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  So what (0+ / 0-)

        Everything you say is true but the public does not seem to realize it.  The messaging has been awful from the White House in that they seem to get no credit from the public for what they do right and all the blame when things go wrong.
        They have also not tied Romney to Bush enough.  If I were the President talking about Romney, I would not let his name escape my lips without Bush's name following, then a list of all the Bushies now working for Romney.
        I would also tie Romney to the hated House, pin him down, what does he think of Bachman and all the other crazies?

      •  If you could share your concerns with (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea

        David Nir, head of Daily Kos Elections (DKE), many of us would appreciate it. He's accessible via PM from the account linked to his name, atop this diary.

        Many of us in the DKE subsite have similar suspicions w/r/t the noted user. I think the documentation of an objective "outisder" like yourself could help our case.

        (I'm referring to you as an "outsider" as I haven't seen you at DKE or Swing State Project.)

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 08:25:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm more upset and more worried (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Audrid, LordMike, R30A, tietack, askew

      about the state of the world due to a lack of Emmy nods for "Parks and Recreation" as a series and no other actors on the show besides Amy Poehler than I am about any of the political news today. That's how minor it is.

      More specifically, as I keep saying, the Bain and tax return attacks aren't designed to move numbers now, so don't be surprised if they don't do that.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:44:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Once again you show no signs of... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Avenginggecko

      ...living up to your claim of being a political science teacher.

      Was that a blatant lie?

      Your comment is acutely stupid.  I pointed out above that the jobless claims numbers are subject to seasonal noise right now, so that last week's big drop wasn't to be trusted.  In reality, claims are stable, in the high 300s, which isn't great but doesn't point to anything for the jobs report.

      I bounce around in wondering whether you're a GOP troll.  Right now I'm back to thinking yes, you are.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 07:10:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for the inside baseball (0+ / 0-)

        You explain it to a guy sitting in front of the TV.  All he cares about are the numbers, your brilliant analysis he could care less about.  I know more about the history of American politics than you ever will, you need to get out of the bubble.
        The average citizen only knows that the economy sucks, and that his future is slipping away,and Obama now owns it, and they may hate Romney, a sentiment I cordially agree with, but unless Obama can convince that average voter that he can do better at relieving those fears, then he could easily lose, and this country will head into the abyss with a morally dead corporate vulture at its head, imagine Rick Scott running the country, with better hair.
        Claims may be stable but they do not point to an economy growing fast enough to relieve peoples' fears and if I were Obama, I would be worried about slowly declining personal  numbers.  It might be smarter to have Biden and Priorities USA handle the Bain and Tax questions, let them do the hammering and let Obama handle what he wants to do for a second term.

        •  Quote (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          uclabruin18, DCCyclone

          "I know more about the history of American politics than you ever will, you need to get out of the bubble."

          I see no evidence to suggest that in all your posts going back several months.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 10:21:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I haven't seen even a single post by dudedad... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            NMLib

            ...that suggests any knowledge at all of the history of American politics.  Not even one measley comment.  I'm not sure I've read each and every one, but I've seen plenty of them, and there's only ignorance almost every time.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:08:39 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Mourn dock is a douche (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat

    He'll lie like a rug on the floor.

    That he's screwed the ever elevated saint Lugar makes convincing republicans to not come out to vote is even easier now. You have no idea how many people I've met door to door who are registered republicans who plan to not vote.

    Granted small sample size, but I'm hearing the same from other volunteers across the state.

    --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

    by idbecrazyif on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:05:41 AM PDT

  •  Sen. Sherrod Brown is one lucky guy... (5+ / 0-)

    ...his wife just pwned a couple of RWNJ bloggers with her reply to their e-mails about that photo of her hugging Senator Brown.

    "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:16:36 AM PDT

  •  A really boring, stable campaign (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, DCCyclone, Chachy

    As many have pointed out, so far, the Bain attacks don't seem to be having a big effect. They might - but so far, the public polling at least is pretty inconclusive.

    Of course, Romney's stretch of bad news seems to follow several weeks where pundits were all declaring Obama on the ropes -- yet in that timeframe the polling never budged.

    What we're clearly seeing is pundits and political junkies all touting the latest news as something which will break the pattern, only to see the race remain where it was - a close race, with Obama seemingly ahead by a couple points on average.

    At this point, I think the only thing that will fundamentally tip the campaign in another direction will be either a major economic downturn (good for Romney) or, alternately, a better-than-expected economy in Sept-October. A major foreign policy crisis could also shift things, of course.

    But barring something like that, I think this makes for a pretty boring campaign. So we'll probably see a lot of analysis and dissection of various trends both from the media and from each other -- yet in the end it may all not matter one bit. On Election Day, we might simply get a result we'd suspected all along -- a narrow, 2-3 point Obama win.

    •  As I've said before... (5+ / 0-)

      ...the purpose of the Bain attacks isn't to move poll numbers in the summer, it's to move votes in the fall.

      Campaigns aren't built to drive voters as if they're puppets on string.  They're built to sell over time a point of view that swing voters hopefully will adopt when it comes time to finally cast their votes.

      The attacks on Romney's wealth and business background are working.  People don't like him.

      And Romney's effort to win votes on the back of a bad economy is working, even though what he's accomplishing is largely passive, the reflex of unhappy voters rather than a response to campaign messaging.

      Thus, the stalemate.

      Without Bain, it wouldn't be a stalemate.  We'd be losing.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 07:15:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If the election turns on the economy (3+ / 0-)

        (and it usually does)

        Then voters will compare President Obama and Gov Romney and think

        "Who do I trust more to manage the economy".

        With the Bain ads, the choices will go something like this: Do I trust:

        1. The person who rescued us from a new depression (but seems to be having difficulties getting us back over the hump)
        2. The person who will make it easier for business to give you a pink slip in the name of corporate profits, like he did at Bain.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 07:26:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  As it happens, (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, tietack, dufffbeer

          I came across a private equity company last night that brags--BRAGS!--on its site about how it works with unions and does things differently than the usual slash-and-burn, leverage-up-and-pillage methods we see. Without knowing the gritty details of the business model(s) in question, which may make such comparisons somewhat weak (I'm trying to be as objective as possible here), I was kind of impressed. Supposedly, unions around the country call up this company because they know it does this differently and works with them, not against them.

          I'm trying to write a diary, or maybe just a longer post in one of the weekend digests, about if and how the Obama campaign should bring someone like this into the fold. I wonder if there's anything to be gained from doing so.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 07:33:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Problem with theory is... (0+ / 0-)

          polling shows Romney is seen as a better choice for the economy.  

      •  The effect the attacks are having (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, DCCyclone

        as acknowledged by both campaigns is to push down Romney's favorables making it more difficult for him to grow.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 07:28:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I agree that's the purpose of the Bain attacks (0+ / 0-)

        And some polls do indicate it could be working. That said, the stability of this campaign is remarkable and who knows if the topline numbers would actually be worse without the Bain attacks.

        •  They would be worse, period (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          aamail6

          No, not "some" polls show Bain attacks are working, it's the consensus, a few outliers excluded, that the attacks are working.

          Specific questions on Bain or Romney's business background generally have him underwater on those things.

          And Romney's overall favorability is underwater.

          As I said, there are outliers that show otherwise, but outliers they are.

          There's not really any question the attacks are working.

          And there's no question that Mitt's poor public image has, so far, offset the stagnant economy.  A candidate's public image always matters.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 07:57:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        I'm sorry for repeatedly using this analogy and I know how cliché it is but I think "irresistible force/immovable object" is just so apt. This race is stable for a reason. Weak economy versus weak challenger. Neither campaign can get a clear advantage because of these competing forces.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 10:26:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Ann Romney (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, bumiputera, R30A, askew, KingTag, David Nir

    says that they've given all the tax returns "you people" need to know.

    I guess they couldn't possibly have had Mitt Romney make this comment.

  •  This Is What Happens (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, Ahianne, dufffbeer, JBraden, schnecke21

    When politicians like Sherrod Brown strongly and unequivocally support the working class.

    If I was a communist, rich men would fear me...And the opposite applies. The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles.

    by stewarjt on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:44:46 AM PDT

  •  No More Good News For John McCain! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dufffbeer

    Can we now replace this with Good News for Mitt Romney? Based on this Halperin post, I think so.

    Just when did we start using the term "micro news cycle"? Candidates now win cycles in periods less than a day when, you know, most of the fucking country is asleep? And what "jobs numbers" of the President are tanking, Mr. Halperin?

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:53:24 AM PDT

    •  The "jobs numbers" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mark27, EcosseNJ

      had to be the weekly unemployment claims rising to 386K.  Congratulations to Mitt Romney for winning the "micro news cycle" this morning.  Mitt, you stud!

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

      by spiderdem on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:56:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's IT!!!!?!?!?!?! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Audrid

        What a fucking moran!

        God, get Bill McBride of Calculated Risk to replace Halperin as a blogger for Time, and the world becomes a slightly better place.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:59:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Expect This Sentiment To Hit Fever Pitch..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      aamail6

      .....on the Sunday morning talk shows.  After several days of decrying Romney DOA, the new consensus will be Obama's surprise slaying.

      •  Sigh (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, David Jarman, EcosseNJ, bumiputera

        Most of June - "Obama is struggling! He shouldn't be attacking on Bain!" Throughout Obama leads the national average by my measure 47-44.

        End of June/Early July - "Romney is struggling! Attacks on Bain are working! Throughout Obama leads 47-44.

        Second half of July - "Obama is struggling! Attacks on Bain aren't working! Throughout Obama leads...

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 10:31:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Meet the new presidential race, (8+ / 0-)

    same as the old one.  No cause for wild celebration earlier this week and no cause for lamentation today, when the jobs report reverted to where it was before and Quinnipiac put out yet another in an endless series of wild ass swingy polls with no logical explanation.

    Obama is up by 2-3 nationally and on track to get at least 303 electoral votes, just like he was a month ago ... and two months ago.  That may change in the future, but I will wait until it does before I cry in my beer.

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:53:34 AM PDT

    •  But Mark Halperin says (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Audrid, R30A

      that the president's job numbers are tanking, so clearly, you are wrong!

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:55:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think it's time to say Bain attacks not working. (0+ / 0-)

    Beltway folks and people here might think they were potentially devastating but I don't think regular folk give a shit about it.  

    Pres Obama needs to be for something big and needs to pin the economy on the obstructionist GOP or he's in real trouble here.  His whole argument seems to be "Romney sucks too" and folks seem to be deciding well if you both suck, might as well try something new.  

    People might be more comfortable with the very rich white guy running the economy.  

    •  If you decide (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack

      that you want a fresh salad (you know, one composed of some argula, beets, apples, candied walnuts, a tomato of some type, perhaps some cucumber, asparagus, and some rich cheese, plus some blackened chicken with a nice vinaigrette) and plant some seeds to grow the veggies, do you give up if the veggies don't come up within a week or two?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 07:16:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Now that he has officially lost (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      David Nir, JBraden, bythesea

      this "micro news cycle" as per Mark Halperin, Obama should just concede.  And clearly he has lost the confidence of the critical Mark/dudedad/Jonze voting bloc.  In the words of the great Bill Baxton, "Game over man."

      The fundamentals of this race have not changed one bit in two months in spite of very poor jobs numbers.  The fundamentals of the "bears" on this site being annoying also have not changed one bit during that period.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

      by spiderdem on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 07:23:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No, no, no (0+ / 0-)

      This is just ridiculous. So we now go back to early June when people said they weren't working? This race is and always has been about the state of the economy. Unless it improves as it did in the first quarter, which looks unlikely, the only chance Obama has to win is to make his opponent an unacceptable alternative. Bain is part of that.  Again, it worked for Teddy, it worked in SC and it works now. The problem right now is the weak economy stops him from opening up a clear lead just as Romney's weaknesses stop him from opening up a clear lead because the economy is weak.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 10:37:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  *Yawn* and wrong (0+ / 0-)

      Most of these polls weren't taken in the midst of the Bain/tax returns controversy, and you can't expect them to move voters instantly. If the polls are still static in a week or two then you'll have a case.

  •  wow (0+ / 0-)

    Voting for your own self interest--a lost art in America.  Nixon's southern strategy was to encourage racists and religious fanatics to support them on one key issue--be it voting rights, abortions, or free speech-- and to ignore the rape by the rich and powerful.

    Apres Bush, le deluge.

    by melvynny on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 07:09:10 AM PDT

  •  My guess on the rise in oil prices and the stock (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, EcosseNJ

    market is not only based on an appearance of increased stability in Europe.

    The Republican ticket, top to bottom, is under assault from within the party for Tea Party non-orthodoxy by the wackadoo wing, and for general wackiness and lack of inspiration by any Republicans with a semblance of sanity left. If this leads to a big Democratic win in November, the spending spigots will turn ON in January to push an economic recovery.

    This is pure speculation at this point, but there are millions of desperate families and individuals out there who have lost homes and jobs, or are on the brink of financial disaster. Rmoney can't engage these voters. Some voters may still be reflexive Republicans, but like the death of a thousand cuts, reality and its well-known liberal bias keeps intruding, taking a slice at a time out of the Republican base.

    Even Ohio cops, for the first time since 1988, are fed up. You have to think that a Party whose leadership has teachers, nurses, police and firefighters under fire has lost its mission.

    The Republican Party has a straw man for a candidate, and a recent history of countering the interests of average Americans. We are not a nation of total dolts. The savaging of the Party is underway, and its foundational appeal to the general conservative population is being eroded at its base.

    Whether or not this process culminates in big Democratic wins in November, I think it is damaging to the Republicans and will cost them some positions in congress.

    HumanKind ~ be both

    by 4Freedom on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 07:15:34 AM PDT

  •  We Ask America has Obama leading in WI and NV (9+ / 0-)

    49-42 in WI
    49-43 in NV

    From Politicalwire

  •  I dont blame Ann Romney for defending her (6+ / 0-)

    husband, but just imagine the conservative reaction if Michelle Obama said something like this:

     'We've Given All You People Need To Know' About Family Finances

    link

  •  I still find it amazing... (5+ / 0-)

    that this union had endorsed Republicans until now.  It is a good change, but should have been done long ago.

    "The right to be heard does not automatically include the right to be taken seriously." -- Hubert H. Humphrey

    by Candide08 on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 07:57:00 AM PDT

    •  Waupun, Wisconsin... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      ...which is home to two prisons, played a critical role into Democrat Jessica King's victory over Republican Randy Hopper in a recall election for a Wisconsin State Senate seat last year. Most of the prison guards in Waupun used to vote Republican until Scott Walker came to power in Wisconsin, and Hopper was seen as an Walker ally, leading to his defeat in what was once thought to be a "safe Republican" state senate seat (WI-SD-18) in Wisconsin.

      "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

      by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 09:37:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL-26: Garcia ad uses Rubio narration against (5+ / 0-)

    Rivera.

    http://miamiherald.typepad.com/...

    The best part about the article though is the Rivera camp's pushback:

    Joe Garcia is the single most corrupt Democratic candidate in America
    I guess Rivera had to include the qualifier "Democratic" there because otherwise he'd be at the top of the list?

    Also,

    Finally, Garcia is the most un-American and unpatriotic Democratic candidate in America.

    27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

    by bumiputera on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 08:21:34 AM PDT

  •  Morgan Freeman donating 1 million to Obama super (6+ / 0-)

    PAC.

    Hopefully, he is narrating the ads too.

  •  I'm amazed (17+ / 0-)

    At the people in here already declaring that "the Bain attacks haven't worked" based on a handful of polling over a few days. Unbelievable.

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 08:53:59 AM PDT

    •  Not Saying They Don't Have the Potential To Work.. (0+ / 0-)

      ....but the media will be expecting instant results and since instant results are not emerging, Mark Halperin's comments will be the new normal for campaign discourse unless and until there's a polling shakeup.  Once that happens, and it will accelerate starting today and on into the Sunday morning shows, the Cory Booker-Ed Rendell wing of the party will resume their public calls for "Stop the Bain attacks! They're killing us!"  At the very least, we can expect these past few days to be the best days the Obama campaign will have amongst the Beltway until at least the Democratic Convention....and OFA will have to endure doubts about Bain even louder and more frequent in Phase II of "you guys are screwing this up" than they did in Phase I.

    •  At the very, very worst, the Bain attacks (0+ / 0-)

      haven't really helped us. But that's not the same as saying they have hurt us.

      Of course, this seems to be the wrong standard to judge it by, as they probably weren't designed to produce a sharp turn in the numbers. They were designed for the relative long-term.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 09:19:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Bain Attacks Critics Won't Be Patient...... (0+ / 0-)

        ....whether it be in the media or the corporate Democrats.  Without tangible and immediate negative feedback about Bain and taxes, it's gonna be sharks in a feeding frenzy.  

        And while I'm still in for the long haul on Bain, we're never gonna get a more lopsided pro-Obama news cycle consensus than what we've had in the last four days.  I was expecting at least some favorable movement for Obama (or against Romney).  The fact that it isn't happening at all is not nothing.

        •  Who gives a shit what the media cycle says? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          They were wrong last month and every month before that.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 10:57:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Party Apparatchicks And Fund-Raisers Do..... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            .....and if the Cory Booker wing of the Democratic Party sees no discernible movement in the polls over Bain and the media keeps pouncing on it, it's very hard to imagine OFA getting to spend another $100 million on Bain ads to "give it more time for the message to stick".

            •  No they don't, you're making that up (0+ / 0-)

              Party Apparatchicks know quite well that OFA knows what they're doing.  And fundraisers don't get discouraged about news cycles, they keep doing what they're doing.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:21:46 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Mark that's just dumb (0+ / 0-)

          The media is sold the Bain attacks have worked.  They're Republican sources admit it.  And nothing they say drives fundraising.

          And your notions about fundraising are silly.  You're inventing that out your tail out of paranoia, coming from the same place in your mind that predicted we'd lose 93 House seats in the last midterm.  OFA has been raising very well, they're on track for what they want.  They're worried because Team Red will raise even more thanks to independent expenditure groups.  But OFA isn't worried about their own fundraising.  You talk about this like it's Creigh Deeds and the thesis.  It's not, OFA is quite happy how their attacks are sticking, which they are.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 06:20:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  To say they've hurt us (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, DCCyclone

        Is insupportable and absurd. And to say they haven't helped us is to act like Romney isn't firing back with all sorts of attack ads of his own. Both sides are deploying weapons, and the fight remains at a standstill. That's good news for us, since we're ahead.

        Also, the fact that the media, already queasy about these Bain attacks because they're so distasteful to their Wall Street friends, is getting tired of writing "Romney on the defensive" stories doesn't matter in terms of what voters think.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 09:35:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't see the evidence they haven't helped (0+ / 0-)

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 10:56:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Rasmussen has Obama up 2 in Ohio (7+ / 0-)

      Rasmussen's last poll had Romney up two. Considering Ohio is one of the states where the ads are being really focused, I'd say they are having a decent effect.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 09:47:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      David Nir, DCCyclone

      But it is our own usual suspects. Not so unbelievable but frickin' unbelievably ridiculous.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 10:55:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  South Carolina SD41 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat

    I see the Green Party do what they do best in this SD.  That is, elect a Republican.

  •  the police unions (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    across this country have been supporting republicans for decades as long as the gop was taking care of the police while at the same time hurting other unions.

    at least one police union will support a dem this election year but don't count on the police unions to sign up in the future, their history says no, they ask for the support of other unions but give nothing in return not unlike the pro sports unions, who like the police align themselves with the gop.

    •  WI police union endorsed Barrett (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      though the Milwaukee local endorsed Walker. They are pretty conservative (law and order doncha know), but don't like being messed with. Same with prison guards. My guess is that they will support Democrats only in states where the Republicans have alienated them (mainly meaning OH and WI).

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Thu Jul 19, 2012 at 11:10:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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