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On a day when politics, to say nothing of perusing election polling, has been rightly relegated to the back page, there are nevertheless a handful of polls which crossed our eyes today. A sharp movement in the Gallup tracker, a lesser movement from the House of Ras, and some predictable statewide polling marks the day.

But the one polling headline that might be worth remembering next week is a pair of GOP internal polls that hint that California may not be the treasure trove of pickups for the Democrats that everyone thinks. The reason: Two nominally Democratic seats may be more competitive than we thought.

On to the numbers:


NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (48-44)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-46)

CALIFORNIA (Pepperdine Univ. School of Public Policy for the California Business Round Table): Obama d. Romney (52-33)

FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (48-43)

NORTH CAROLINA (National Research for Civitas Institute—R): Romney d. Obama (49-48)

PENNSYLVANIA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (48-44)

CA-SEN (Pepperdine Univ. School of Public Policy for the California Business Round Table): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 49, Elizabeth Emken (R) 30

CA-24 (Public Opinion Strategies for Maldonado): Rep. Lois Capps (D) 48, Abel Maldonado (R) 46

CA-47 (Probolsky Research for DeLong): Alan Lowenthal (D) 44, Gary DeLong (R) 41

FL-SEN (SurveyUSA): Connie Mack IV (R) 48, Bill Nelson (D) 42

OH-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 46, Josh Mandel (R) 42

WA-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 51, Michael Baumgartner (R) 40

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...

When the commission-drawn map for California's 53 House districts was released last year, the immediate, and essentially universal, reaction was that any roadmap to the majority for the Democrats had just been made more plausible. Gains out of the Golden State seemed inevitable, and some even speculated that the Democrats could gain as many as five or six of the seats they needed in California alone.

That optimism has been tempered dramatically over the course of this year. The June primaries, while not necessarily reflective of a November electorate, were nevertheless pretty disappointing for the Democrats. The biggest blow was the fact that a multi-candidate Democratic field wiped out any Democratic prospects in a swing district (the Inland Empire's 31st District) when the two Republicans in the mix made the top two slots, earning a spot in the general election.

Elsewhere, Democratic candidates seemed to perform under expected totals in a number of districts. It was easy, however, to chalk that up to a primary electorate that was among the smallest in recent history.

But two new polls, in districts that were generally assumed to be leaning to the Democrats, show very close races. Yes, these are both polls taken on behalf of the Republican candidates, but given where the primary numbers were, these don't feel like they are out of realm of possibility. So, now, it would seem, we wait to see if the Democratic campaigns in question offer a retaliatory data strike sometime next week. If they stay silent, as we often point out, that is usually pretty telling.

In other polling news:

  • It was a tad too lengthy to cite in the upper half of the Wrap, but Pepperdine University's School of Public Policy has gotten into the polling game, with an extensive survey of November's California ballot propositions, a poll conducted on behalf of the California Business Round Table. There is now a marked gap between the competing tax measures on the ballot this November. The proposal being promoted by Gov. Jerry Brown (dubbed Proposition 30) has a pretty solid lead thus far: 56 percent currently support it, while 39 percent oppose it. The competing measure to Brown's, promoted by Molly Munger, is dubbed Proposition 38. It currently trails by a sizable margin: 35 percent would currently vote yes, while 54 percent would vote no. Worth noting: This is a poll conducted online. Historically, we've found YouGov to be an online pollster that can find the fairway. But for every YouGov, there's a Zogby Interactive (which, for those of you scoring at home, seems to have morphed into something called "JZ Analytics"). So, salt this poll accordingly.
  • Meanwhile, it must be said—that new SUSA poll in Florida is just a funky one. For most of the cycle, incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson ran a little bit better than incumbent Democratic president Barack Obama in the Sunshine State of Florida. Then, for the last month or so, Nelson and Obama's numbers have tracked fairly closely, with Obama's numbers maybe a point or two better, at most. Now, if you're buying stock in this SUSA poll, Barack Obama is eleven points stronger than Bill Nelson? If true, something has caused Bill Nelson's support to just crater, and I cannot imagine it is the juggernaut of campaign greatness that is Connie Mack IV. Florida peeps—what gives? Bad poll, or bad incumbent?
  • If having a seven-day tracker was designed by Gallup to smooth out wild swings in support, something went off the rails to close this week. It has been decidedly rare, since Gallup switched to the seven-day model, to see a 4-point swing in a single day. But that is exactly what we got today, as Barack Obama goes from a dead-even battle to a lead of four in just one day. My guess, and it is just that—a guess, is that a bad Obama dropped off at the exact same time a decent one popped on. That, or Obama had a monster night last night for no clear and discernible reason. Rasmussen also put Obama back in the lead, albeit by just a single point. However, a lead from the House of Ras for Obama is rare enough lately to be worth noting, I suppose.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 05:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by DKos Pennsylvania and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Explanation for Mack vs Nelson from earlier thread (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, KingTag, TLS66, MRA NY, Taget

    Folks polled might think it's Connie Mack III running against Nelson.  Seems plausible to me, but I don't know if it would explain the 6 point difference.  I hope Nelson is watching things and isn't getting caught napping.  Maybe he should start spending some of his war chest now to frame Mack IV before the general comes around and Rove and Co sending a prime pick-up dump silly money against Nelson.  

  •  I speculated in another thread that maybe (16+ / 0-)

    "you people" is causing fallout at an immediate level that the Bain attacks and the news stories was not. A 2 point shift toward Obama in Rasmussen on the same day as a 4 point shift toward Obama in Gallup, could be just coincidence, but I think it is something more. Don't know if that is it but that was at the top of Twitter trending topics yesterday. It certainly got attention and I can't believe anyone responded positively.

  •  Those are HORRIBLE numbers on Prop 32 ... (8+ / 0-)

    ... which must be defeated if California is going to fend off corporate money taking over completely.

    No on Prop 32 has its work cut out on informing the public about this underhandedly-written measure.


    "The fundamental curse of the Republican party is its irrepressible disposition to meddle with other people's business, and impose its notions, and its will, on people who do not freely accept them." -- The New York Freeman's Journal, 1861

    by dzog on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 05:18:59 PM PDT

  •  The SUSA Pres-FLA poll looks good to me (10+ / 0-)

    the party split and regional splits look right, so I do think Obama is ahead in FLA (maybe not as much as SUSA has it, but he is ahead), and I do think Nelson needs to watch out because he looks in trouble.

  •  I generally agree with your CA analysis (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, bythesea

    I think there was a lot of optimism about Dem gains in CA that has now faded.

    Dems currently have 34 House seats in CA. I calculate about 28 Dem seats are safe this year, with 10 competitive races(note these arent all Dem held seats, just all the competitive seats).

    That said , I dont know if the polls are really bad news. These were expected to be tough races. And even in GOP internals, their candidates are trailing, so that seems encouraging for Dems.

    But the big gains for Dems dont look like they will materialize. It would be great just to remain at 34 seats.

  •  I think ballot props might be the new strategy (6+ / 0-)

    for the right wing think tank types.  They have the organization via AFP or whomever to get the necessary signatures, and then they have the money to push their agenda on the airwaves where there would be no organized push back.  

    I worry about Michigan voters passing the 2/3rds vote garbage to raise taxes - making them the new California.  

  •  This was basically a perfect polling day across (7+ / 0-)

    the board for the President.  

    He moved up in all of the trackers and that R leaning Civitas poll, which basically confirms that PPP was right about its last poll in NC.  The FL poll looks great.  Obama was the first Democrat to recognize the registration/demographic advantages that could be exploited in that state, but to be leading by 5 points in a standard public poll means that he is winning a sizable amount of traditional likely voters.  BTW, if Obama is up 5 in FL, he's about by more than that in PA.  Sorry, Ras.  As for Mack v. Nelson, I do think that name ID is playing a role in that race.  Nelson has to spend his money to define his opponent in order to align his results to those of the President.  We can't afford to lose that FL senate seat.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 06:51:47 PM PDT

  •  gallup in perspective (0+ / 0-)

    The website is down for maintenance so I'll take the 4 point shift for granted.  2 of the points can be explained by rounding artifacts; a number goes from .50 to .499 or vice versa.  But then the next 2 points must be completely real.  So the day that fell out must have been at least 14 points worse than the new day, and to get to that minimum would be a huge coincidence.  I wonder what the error bars on a one day sample supposedly are.

  •  In the SUSA Florida Senatr Poll (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Davidsfr, jj32, CocoaLove, Supavash, ArkDem14

    Nelson leading by only 69-18 with blacks seems very suspect.

    The definition of INSANITY: Voting Republican over and over and over and expecting the economy to get better.

    by pollbuster on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 07:16:15 PM PDT

  •  Getting a bit worried about FL and VA Senate. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GeorgeXVIII, Delilah

    I have had both at a slight Dem lead all year. (Florida moreso than VA). The new polls this week make me worried. We would need to win Indiana and Nevada to offset these two.

    22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Re-Elect Betty Sutton and David Price!

    by liberal intellectual on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 07:41:31 PM PDT

  •  The Bain/tax return attacks are beginning to stick (7+ / 0-)
  •  Obama and Romney polling almost even in (10+ / 0-)

    North Carolina can't be good news for Mittens.

  •  48-43 Obama in FL by SUSA (11+ / 0-)

    is music to my ears...hopefully they are correct

    •  me, too! but what happened to Nelson/Mack race? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      i think it was a few days ago Nelson was beating Mack in the polls....  wow!  i have family who live in in his district (one rabid faux news watcher, the other is sane!)

      Faux News ruined my state

      by sc kitty on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 08:22:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Anyone have info (0+ / 0-)

    ...on Pete Stark CA-15?  Media were playing up a tough re-election battle for him in the PRIMARY, and as I understand it he'll be facing another Democrat in the general (although Obama's endorsed him.)

    America, we can do better than this...

    by Randomfactor on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 08:21:31 PM PDT

  •  Any close state is advantage Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The only close state the President lost in 2008 was Missouri.
    The superior ground game won even Indiana last time around to the surprise of the GOP.
    Romney sure has his work cut out for him. He essentially has to clean to table and hope Obama does not pull off any surprises by winning what should be a GOP reliable state.

  •  I was one of the few persons that where unhappy (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dopper0189, GeorgeXVIII

    with the end of the redistricting process in California.

    Just when the Blue Team gains the trifecta in California I think it was a big mistake to change the system. We only need to look to the Republicans in North Carolina.

    And I was also so unhappy with the Top-two primaries because I think in the general elections conservative Democrats will be elected with Republican votes over a more progressive Democrat.

    The Democratic Party has now 34 (33 in D+ seats, 1 in R+) of 53 seats.

    The new map has just 37 D+ seats, but we lost the chance in CA-31 (D+). Then we can not expect a lot of gains from California. But still we should have some gains.

    I think the fight for the US House in California has been not well organized. CA-31 is the best example but not the alone example. I see underfunded seats that should be obvious targets and so easy victories:

    CA-41 (D+ open by R)
    CA-09 (D+ with D incumbent)
    CA-47 (D+ open by D)
    CA-33 (D+ with D incumbent)
    CA-26 (D+ open by R)
    CA-21 (R+ open by D)

    While I see more difficult seats have better fundraising:

    CA-52 (D+ with R incumbent)
    CA-07 (R+ with R incumbent)

    I think it would not be difficult to give better order to the priorities and to assure the victories in many of these seats. I'm not optimistic about CA-21 (only R+1) but I think we can win the rest.

    Losing only one D+ (CA-31) and winning only one R+ (CA-07) it would be 37 seats. Maybe the better result that we can have this cycle in California after spend millions. It is not a good result having the trifecta.

    •  100% agree losing the ability to redistrict in CA (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wu ming, abgin, askew

      and that loss of the NY Senate because of a corrupt Buffalo Senator getting tossed cost us 7-9 seats.

      By the way abgin your English language skills have improved greatly over the years, great job with that!

      -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

      by dopper0189 on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 09:26:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  There was no chance we'd get a better map (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hankmeister, James Allen

      if the CA Dem hacks had at it again.  The 2002 map was utter disaster.  It is 99% certain we would have gotten a similar piece of shit this time, with some slight gerrymandering around Riverside for one Dem seat.

      I shudder to even think of how much they would have screwed things up to protect both Berman and Sherman.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 10:17:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  absolutely! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        It's pretty obvious in retrospect that the 2002 Michael Berman map was functionally a Republican gerrymander just to protect people that should not have been protected.

        "Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of State and corporate power." -Benito Mussolini, Fascist dictator of Italy

        by hankmeister on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 10:24:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The map of 2002 was bad (0+ / 0-)

          I agree about the map of 2002. But still it is sad to see this poor result having the trifecta. The current map also needs a good Democratic review.

          It is a losed opportunity. And California maps keep still many of the signs of the old Republican Gerrymanders.

    •  Taking the redistricting pens away from the state (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      legislature is the best thing that has happened to and for California politics since Hiram Johnson was Governor. The Democratic insiders(i.e. Michael Berman) proved that they can not be trusted to make deals that are far more harmful in the long run than the gain that they trade for.

      "Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of State and corporate power." -Benito Mussolini, Fascist dictator of Italy

      by hankmeister on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 10:32:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This is not a day for politics but... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Supavash

    The Dark Knight massacre rightfully dominated the news cycle today. But (and I apologize if somebody has already captured this), has anybody checked Intrade results for the day? Even as all the Bain / tax mess was being played out, Obama was stuck in the 54% - 56% range. Romney, by contrast, actually seemed to be climbing a bit and may have hit 42%. I think last night Obama closed around 57% and Romney was maybe 40%. Tonight Obama closed at 59.3%, while Romney was down to 38.7%. These are the largest daily swings in either direction that I've seen in months. Given that Intrade supposedly trends conservative, does this mean that the players realize that right wing nonsense doesn't play well in the wake of this kind of tragedy? Or is there some other factor in play that did not get full coverage because of the focus on Colorado, but could be seen as a game change?. Syria, more Bain  stories...any ideas out there?

    •  Nate Silver... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Delilah, ArkDem14, KingofSpades

      He's been very bullish whereas the Village has not been.  I think a lot of that has been taken into account.  Also, in a tragedy like today's, the President ends up looking good... and can end up looking real good.  The OKC bombing response literally resurrected Bill Clinton's presidency.  Just the day before, the Village was calling him "irrelevant". I doubt that this is big enough to do the same thing for Obama, but you never know.  Let's not forget that a lot of governors, for example. become extremely popular for life, because of positive responses to state tragedies.  That's one reason why you saw Romney really milking it today trying to look presidential with a prepared statement.  He's hoping to gain some leverage from this event.


      by LordMike on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 09:01:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Jay Nixon (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        may have gotten some of that polish from Joplin, at least in that normally hard-right Republican region of the state.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 03:18:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  look at the Intrade chart for Obama: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, Supavash

      for whatever reason O's reelect number got crushed right at the end of May, from about 58 to 53; and its been working its way more-or-less steadily back up in the 6 weeks since.   But yes, with a big leap the past few days Some combo of Bain and stock market, I would guess.

      Would be very cool to see O's number stabilize above 60 again, and Mitt get stuck at 38....

  •  I think we're going to gain 4-6 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wu ming, James Allen, askew

    in California.  It will require a repeat performance of Barack Obama to his 2008 campaign.  I actually think this is possible given how much the GOP has alienated women and Latino voters.  

    The greatest at risk seat for us is CA-21.  I don't know how we salvage that one but that's the greatest risk for us.  Could we lose Lois Capps's seat?  It's a possibility.  The polling doesn't look great for her right now but Maldonado is a flawed candidate.  

    I think we will gain CA-41 though along with CA-7, CA-26, and CA-52.  The latter two are supposed to be longshots but they now look more winnable now than they have previously.  Now, do we count CA-47 as a gain or not?  I've been looking at it as a gain.  It's a new seat really and it appears to have a Democratic lean.  I think of it as a gain but perhaps it's not really one.  

    Anyway, I'm most worried (though this is perhaps a symptom of generalized anxiety disorder) about losing CA-33.  Sure there's no Republican on the ballot technically but that's entirely the problem.  The independent running against liberal hero Henry Waxman isn't really an independent.  He's actually a conservative Republican who's merely pretending to be an independent in order to win over low information voters who don't like Republicans.  And CA-33 seems to have been drawn in such a way as to pack together as many rich people as physically possible.  Or I suppose we must be politically correct here and say "job creators" and not use terms like "rich" or "wealthy."  And the "job creators" can be rather overly sensitive to the President's critiques of Wall Street and desire to allow Dubya's tax cuts for the wealthiest expire.  What if you combine that with a bunch of low information voters who hate both parties?  The leading progressive in the House is going to have to rely on the Platinum Triangle to vote him in.  Well I'm frightened.  Frightened I tell you.  Probably frightened completely unneccessarily.  But you know, I like to be afraid.  

    Check out my new blog:

    by SoCalLiberal on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 08:57:58 PM PDT

    •  Capps isn't going to lose (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SoCalLiberal, SoCalGal23

      No way, no chance.

      The best liked Democrat in CA loses to the most loathed Republican??  LOL, no.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 10:18:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is one area where the rich people (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      are liberal. And probably support raising taxes on their income bracket. Not to mention Waxman seems to be doing just fine thus far.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 03:20:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Good polls all around (6+ / 0-)

    I think Obama is going to win North Carolina.  He has a strong level of support there and demographically, that support is only going to grow.  He's continued to hold up well there in terms of his approval ratings as well throughout his presidency.  

    I'm liking that SUSA poll for the President in Florida (though it may have a funky sample).  

    I actually think that in this Presidential election, a lot of the undecideds are actually more likely to go to Obama.  I know this purely speculative but it seems to me that a number of people like to keep their powder dry and not commit to a candidate before the campaign kicks into full swing.  The whole GOP campaign is so angry, so vile, so nasty, that it kinda feels like you're either going to be with them or you're not.  There's really no in between.   It's also Romney himself.  He's very unappealing.  I noticed that throughout the primaries, he'd get no more than the final polling numbers had for him, often less.  I know a primary electorate is different than a general election electorate but I feel for many independent voters and undecided voters in a general, it works the same way.  Do you want someone like Romney to be your President?  I just don't see him getting far above his numbers.  

    With that said, I think Obama could do even better in California than he did last time if that Pepperdine poll is to be believed.  

    Check out my new blog:

    by SoCalLiberal on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 09:10:17 PM PDT

  •  CA-47 is not an easy win for Democrats! (0+ / 0-)

    I have been saying all along that the district is much more republican friendly than people think. Plus Delong has put up a lot of ads and signs. Virtually nothing from Lowenthal. People don't even know who he is.  Honestly Lowenthal is snoozing through this campaign.

  •  Capps vs. Maldonado (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wu ming, Delilah, ArkDem14, SoCalGal23

    I live in this district and know Congresswoman Lois Capps a little tiny bit. The early numbers show a surprising tightness, but there are several things that are peculiar to this race and this area:

    -This is not an district that usually shows much of an early interest in these races..with one exception:

    -The right wing in the area (Santa Barbara county and San Luis Obispo county) are very vocal and traditionally very angry. They've been skunked for years and they are self-righteously angry about having this Washington. Thus, they are loud and proud about Able Maldonado, whereas the democrats in our area know who they're going to vote for and don't feel the need to say or do anything about it just now.

    -Maldonado is practically the only "moderate" Republican in the state, so it is widely assumed he will be able to pull off the independents....but,

    -He owes somewhere around $4million to the IRS and is in a fight with the government about it. Even better it's about the family farm and how things weren't reported correctly. I can look it all up and do a diary when we get closer to the election.

    -Finally, Obama carried this area with room to spare, and Capps picks up votes when that happens. She can win on her own, and she's in the lead in raising funds, with over a million dollars on hand; Moldonado is significantly behind.

    When the adds hit about Moldonado's little tax problem, I expect to see the polls move in Capps' favor, and I expect the President to do well here this year, and that will help Lois as well.

    •  Not mant right wingers on the central coast (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hankmeister, marksb

      are more "angry" at Lois Capps than Abel Maldonado.

      Abel is loathed far more than Lois.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 10:22:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good point, but (0+ / 0-)

        When the pollsters call, most Repubs will talk, where most Dems hang up. I do.

        The Wingers certainly hated that Able had "sold them out" in Sacto with Arnold's budget, but that's been dissipating as time wears on and he becomes the only Republican running this time...Still, while it could be a close race and we need to work harder than usual, Lois is going to win.

    •  I used to live on the Central Coast (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      There were definitely a few Dems than Reps but the Reps were pretty vocal. Santa Barbara City is Democratic but the Inland areas like Santa Ynez Valley are very RED. When I lived there in 2004, I saw all these gigantic Bush/Cheney signs.

      For Capps to win this district, she MUST increase turnout in UCSB, SB County was close last time because UCSB turnout was so low.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 08:28:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  She'll have UCSB (0+ / 0-)

        General elections in early November will come about the time students slow down the traditional Fall partying--the famous Isla Vista Halloween celebration is nearly a full week before the election--and are buckling down to studying for the quarter. Political messaging has a bigger impact at that time. UCSB will turn out for Obama and certain propositions, and Capps will benefit.

      •  No she doesn't have to do anything new (0+ / 0-)

        She just needs to not underperform badly in some way.

        Not-loved Brown won the district by a point, not-loved Boxer lost by a point... in a republican year, against solid candidates.  Capps is well-liked, running against a loathed opponent, in a Presidential year, and the district went for Obama by 16 points in 2008.

        Capps +10 may be the most likely result, but anything from +5 to +20 is possible.  Mitchum barely campaigned and had no TV ripping Abel.  Capps has been all positive largely because she is so far ahead.  If need be, Abel is an easy target in the fall.

        (Capps got 68% in her old district.  Obama got 66%.)  

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 12:31:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I LiVE IN CA 47! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Delilah, SoCalGal23

    I have been trying to sound the alarm for a while. the lowenthal campaign have done absolutely nothing. No campaign stops, nothing. Meanwhile Delong has carpet bombed the neighborhoods with signs and posters. This area has some very wealthy parts that are very republican friendly.  Plus delong doesn't say anything about the fact that he is a republican.  The Lowenthal campaign is run by this guy named Dan chavez. The guy didn't understand the jungle primary system, said they wouldnt campaign until the fall.  Totally ridiculous.
    Lowenthal thinks that because he's a state senator that people know who he is....sorry dude, but no one even hears about Lowenthal on he news or anything.  I had no idea who my dem party nominee was.  Total CA democrat party insider type stuff, very frustrating.

  •  Civitas continues to have wacky demographic number (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delilah, hankmeister, Supavash

    I have been vocal on many polling sites about their Latino numbers in NC. Their previous 3 polls of NC had Latino supporting Mitt by 2 to 1 margins! In this poll they didn't have any Latino break down they simply had "others" at 3%, and Romney winning "others" 51% to 40%!

    In 2008 Latinos by themselves were 3% of the electorate, in 2012 they are estimated to be 5% of the electorate (they are now 8-9% of the population). In fact actual Latino REGISTERED voters in NC have doubled since 2008. In previous Civitas sponsored polls Latinos have been between 4-5% of the electorate.

    Now they have them at 3% and Romney winning 51% of the "other" vote. Since Obama won Asian by 60% in NC in 2008 this makes ZERO sense, that Latinos and Asian combined are both smaller and going for Romney in these types of numbers!

    This reminds me of how that Quinnipiac  poll that showed a tied VA race cut the Latino vote in Va from the 7% it was in 2008 to 3%, and had the black vote down to what it was in 2010, and presto chango they had a tied VA race!  

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 09:24:11 PM PDT

  •  OMFG!!!!! (7+ / 0-)

    Rasmussen has Obama up?

    That must mean it's an Obama landslide on the way.

  •  As far as internals go, those are weak for the GOP (3+ / 0-)

    Any internal showing your opponent up is weak no matter what the margin is.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 09:59:10 PM PDT

    •  What do you think (0+ / 0-)

      of the CA-47 race?  What have you observed about it?  Is LatinoDem upthread right or has Lowenthal been doing a good job running?  I just looked at Lowenthal's page and he has been going around and stuff.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 10:45:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  i seen his page too (0+ / 0-)

        Lowenthal didn't do anything until after the primary.
        A lot of people assume that because this district is based in long beach that it's a lean dem seat but the belmont shore, belmont heights, park estates, 2nd street, Naples, etc areas are technically long beach but very wealthy Million dollar neighborhoods that more closely resemble huntington beach. The demo is much older, whiter and wealthy. Naples is an exclusive island with million plus houses on the water. Ferraris and Porsches. Seal beach is even worse, very conservative and voted for Dana rohrbacher.

      •  i have gotten four mailers from delong (0+ / 0-)

        Nothing in the mail from Lowenthal. There are no Lowenthal signs anywhere. I mean nowhere. Nothing.  Had no idea who my candidate was until I voted in the primary. I think Lowenthal is counting on his name reck. He is apparently like old, long beach political dynasty but I have never heard of him.  A lot of people have moved here recently too, and the neighborhood is changing.  I can bet the new hipsters and young families have no idea about the Lowenthal city political dynasty. Who pays that much attention to city politics?
         I have no idea how anyone would have even heard who the democrat is in this race. No signs or poster actually say that Delong is a republican or that lowenthal is the democrat. Plus Delong was endorsed by a few democrats.
        Delong also gets a lot of backing from the port of long beach, which is big over here. They can really organize and turn out the vote.

      •  Lowenthal is a low key campaigner (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, jj32

        But he does know how to campaign and from what I know, he has been making a good effort in the Orange County part of the district. And, he is building a good ground game.

        26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 06:43:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ok, thanks. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Yeah, according to his FB page, he's made a campaign tour through Little Saigon recently.

          Hail to the king, baby.

          by KingofSpades on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 01:55:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  As an OC resident, I've been in the OC 47th (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          And there are in fact some Lowenthall signs, but I'm not around there too often, so I can't really speak to how well they are doing on the ground.

          I'm a bit mixed about how to feel about this race, on the one hand, Obama will pull up every dem in the state, but on the other hand, there were SO many districts in 2008 that voted for Obama, but still re-elected their GOP representative.

          The campaign I'm devoting most of my time to (CA-45) has it's own difficulties.  I can only hope Obama really runs up the Numbers here in Orange County, it is trending blue, and the county as a whole almost voted for Obama in 2008.  Only problem is that Mitt Romney IS the perfect Republican for this area.

          Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

          by Daman09 on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 09:14:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Romney is in trouble (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, EcosseNJ, Supavash

    if Rasmussen has him trailing Obama. Their model has (at least since 1996) overweighted Republican/conservative voting.

    Obama is weak, coming into this cycle. But Romney really hasn't, to date, presented himself as a viable alternative. Romney should be well ahead of Obama in places like Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina. If Obama wins Virginia, even if he loses Ohio and Florida, I don't see how Romney can win, given Obama's relative strength out west in places like Nevada and Colorado.

    Romney is one of those classic "hold what you got" candidates. I don't think anyone in the Republican national hierarchy really expects him to win. If he does, they'd say "great." But they're gearing up for 2016.

    •  Focused on Senate seats this cycle... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat, Supavash

      Because those elected this year will be sat until 2018, meaning the first two years of the 2016 President's first term aka "the mandate years".  Romney is about doing no harm to the Senate races - running close enough to Pres Obama without enflaming passions to increase enthusiasm and voter turnout.  He's boring as a GOP strategy.  

      GOP wants Montana, ND, Nebraska and Mo for sure and will make a play for Wisconsin while trying to hold NV and Mass.  

      2010 was a big loss for us in we lost some should-be Dem seats with Kirk in Illinois, Toomey in Pa and Johnson in Wisc and now all will have the incumbency advantage in 2016, but will run up against the Presidential election year.  

      Look for GOP SuperPAC's to fundraise using Obama but spend a lot of the money on Senate races come the fall.  Rather than spending an extra $100M in the presidential race they could spend $10M for each of the Mo, Mt, Nd, Nb, Wi, Nv, Ma, Fl, NM, Az races and have a HUGE impact in each and every one.  

      •  The only SuperPAC on our side that is countering (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        ...this GOP strategy appears to be a pro-Tammy Baldwin SuperPAC that was founded by Laura Ricketts. Yes, Joe Ricketts's daughter is in the tank for Baldwin. Yes, Joe Ricketts is the guy whose "Ending Spending Action Fund" tried to swiftboat Obama by digging up Obama's past ties to Jeremiah Wright, but the plans got leaked to the New York Times and Ricketts cancelled the proposed swiftboating campaign.

        "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

        by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 03:02:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  2016 U.S. Senate races (0+ / 0-)

        Illinois is trending away from Democrats, as the Illinois Democratic Party simply doesn't care about Central and Southern Illinois, which is where statewide races are won and lost, although Kirk probably won't seek a second full term for health reasons. I have absolutely no idea about who might run in the 2016 IL-Sen race on the Democratic side or even on the Republican side if Kirk retires.

        Wisconsin will be another tough fight in 2016, as Ron Johnson will probably run for a second term. Russ Feingold has reportedly hinted at running against Johnson in 2016 in an attempt to get his old seat back, and he would probably clear the Democratic primary field if he did so.

        Pennsylvania will be much like Wisconsin in 2016, with the only difference being the fact that we really don't know who might consider a run against Toomney.

        "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

        by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 03:13:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Illinois isn't. (4+ / 0-)

          I know there are places that are trending Republican (places like Quincy and SE IL), but they're offset by Dem gains in the Chicago suburbs.

          From 1976 to 2002, Republicans had the governorship.  From '94 to '96, they held all positions of state power.  After 2010, Dems held most of those positions:

          IL seems to be like a metronome.

          Hail to the king, baby.

          by KingofSpades on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 03:21:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  My view of Illinois is Vermilion County-centric (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            ...since I'm from Vermilion County (Westville, to be exact). Obviously, that's probably why I have a mindset that the entire state of Illinois is turning away from Democrats.

            No wonder why Bill Mitchell and Adam Brown, two state legislators from Macon County, want to make Cook County a state onto itself...Mitchell and Brown want to LITERALLY divide and conquer Illinois!

            "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

            by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 04:33:04 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Johnson will have a disadvantage (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          namely he's gained a reputation even in conservative circles as unresponsive to constituents. He won't go down without a fight I don't think, but he's far right and has done little to entrench himself, so a decent Democrat should have a shot at him in a neutral year. Feingold would qualify, as would Kind ,any Democrat who manages to win WI-01, WI-07, or WI-08, or a decently funded businessman candidate like Kohl.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 09:03:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  2016 will probably be a neutral year (0+ / 0-)

            Ron Johnson is a weak incumbent, and if Feingold runs for his old seat, he'll probably clear the primary field, and, if Feingold doesn't unilaterally disarm like he did in 2010, he should defeat Johnson. If Feingold doesn't run, expect numerous Democrats to run in a crowded primary field. I wouldn't be surprised to see over a dozen Democrats run in a primary for the right to run against Johnson if Feingold doesn't run.

            "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

            by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 10:20:10 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I worry not about this senate seat (0+ / 0-)

          I think L Madigan will run and win the seat easily.

          If M Kirk run not would be because he is sure of losing.

          •  I think Madigan is eyeing the Governors manchin (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            my 2016 candidate prediction.

            Potential Pickups
            Illinois: Cheri Bustos (though she has won yet, she will, other potential dems in the delegation are getting up in age)

            Wisconsin: Jon Erpenbach/Kelda Roys (assuming she wins her primary)

            Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz

            North Carolina: Janet Cowell

            Missouri: Chris Koster/Susan Montee (assuming she wins LG)

            New Hampshire: Ann Kuster

            Open Seats

            Nevada: Catherine Cortez-Masto

            Arizona: Janet Napolitano/David Lujan (I know people will mention Gab Giffords. In reality she has a long way to recovery before she can get close to what she was!)

            •  Roys probably won't win the WI-2 primary (0+ / 0-)

              ...I've seen on message boards where people who are actually WI-2 residents have stated that they strongly dislike her. Roys couldn't win Dane County if she ran statewide in Wisconsin. Russ Feingold, who was defeated in 2010, is reportedly considering a run for U.S. Senate in 2016 in an attempt to get his old seat back. If Feingold doesn't run, expect a free-for-all in the Democratic primary, as Johnson isn't all that popular.

              As far as Bustos is concerned, she'll probably run for President in 2016 if she wins the IL-17 general election this cycle. Tammy Duckworth would probably run for Senate out of Illinois in 2016. Kirk, for health reasons, probably won't run for a second full term.

              Considering that Schwartz is from the Philadelphia suburbs, the area of PA that is trending toward Democrats, a 2016 run against Toomey by Schwartz is not out of the question at all.

              NC is going to be a swing state for many years to come, but I'm not sure who the strongest candidate against Burr might be, as I don't know a whole lot about the NC Democratic bench.

              MO is trending away from Democrats, so it would probably take either Koster or Montee to defeat Blunt and hold down that seat for one or two terms.

              NH is also a state that will be a swing state for many years to come, so Kuster would probably be our strongest candidate there in 2016, but there are others that might consider a run against Ayotte.

              NV is rapidly trending toward Democrats, so we may not need an exceptionally strong candidate on our side if Reid retires, but we'll need a strong one.

              AZ will be a swing state in 2016, as it is currently Republican-leaning but trending in our direction. Napolitano would probably be our strongest candidate, as I don't think Giffords will ever be well enough to run for public office again.

              "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

              by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 02:41:41 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  WI-SEN: If Ron Kind doesnt run for (0+ / 0-)

                governor in 2014, I could see him running for Senate in 2016.

                He'd probably be the strongest Dem candidate.

                •  Lena Taylor-Chris Larson MKE proxy war? (0+ / 0-)

                  Right now, it appears, judging by what is going on in some of the Milwaukee-area State Assembly Democratic primaries, that state senators Lena Taylor and Chris Larson, both Milwaukee Democrats, are engaging in a proxy war to build allies in the Assembly for possible 2014 gubernatorial runs by Taylor and/or Larson. I could see Ron Kind, Kathleen Vinehout, Jennifer Shilling, or some other Democrat from that region of Wisconsin run against Taylor and Larson in a three-way primary and win the Democratic nomination.

                  "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

                  by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 10:34:54 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  He really rubbed me the wrong way (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:

                  with the contempt vote!

                  •  I'm thinking the 2014 WI-Gov Democratic field... (0+ / 0-)

                    ...will have these four candidates: Ron Kind, Lena Taylor, Chris Larson, Lori Compas. Kind has been name-dropped constantly for statewide office, Compas tweeted a few weeks ago that forcing Big Fitz to run in a recall election in order to keep his job was "easy" compared to her future plans, but did not elaborate on what specifically her future plans are, and Taylor and Larson appear to be engaged in some sort of "proxy war" in some of the competitive Democratic state assembly primaries in the Milwaukee area in order to build a group of allies in the assembly for 2014 gubernatorial bids.

                    Compas attacks Kind over his vote to hold Holder in contempt and attacks Taylor and Larson over the MKE proxy war. Compas wins the primary with 45% of the vote or so despite having never held political office before.

                    "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

                    by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 11:34:10 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I rather see Erpenbach or Obey (0+ / 0-)

                      than Kind in Madison. Though I don't like his contempt vote which I don't know why he did it. It's not like he running in a conservative district. I know deer hunting is a big deal in Wisconsin, but western WI is not dye in the wool Red. Dems do very well in that part in the state. I rather have him staying in Washington and beating that idiot Johnson.  

                      •  Kind's district was made more Dem in redistricting (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        James Allen

                        ...Kind's district, which was already Democratic-leaning, was made even more Democratic by adding territory around Stevens Point to the district.

                        There was no reason to justify Kind voting to hold Holder in contempt, unless he was trying to please the NRA.

                        "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

                        by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 12:28:42 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

              •  What message boards are you reading? (0+ / 0-)

                I read an article recently that said that both Roys and Pocan are equally well liked. That even the negative campaign from both sides isn't hurting them. Of course if it's a message board, it's probably a Pocan partisan. I don't think Roys and Pocan will be friends after this. He thought she should have waited her turn.

                20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                by ndrwmls10 on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 11:10:32 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I Dont mean to sound rude (0+ / 0-)

                or disrespectful but Bustos for Pres in '16? Really that's like so out there, somebidy who thinks that should prob be drug tested.

                Look I agree with Bustos or duckworth being potential Sen. nominees in IL. Kirk is certain not to run in '16 even if he wasn't sick it will be hard to win reelection in Illinois in in Presidential year.

                Schwartz is the obvious choice in PA. She'll have full backing by Sen. Casey and Gov. Sestak. Yes Gov. Sestak. I believe Corbett is the 2nd most endangered GOP Governor in the country right after "Lex Luther" down in Florida for '14.

                North Carolina Dems have a very strong bench. Unfortunatey because Perdue is not popular I believe Dalton will put up a good race, but at the end McCrory is going to win. Then you'll see his poll numbers start tanking like a stone w/ that GOP legislature. Hagan will reap the benefits of that in '14. Atty. Gen. Roy Cooper will defeat McCrory for GOV, and Tres. Janet Cowell will defeat Burr. Some people in the beltway still don't want to think North Carolina isn't a swing state really? Im mean w/ FL and VA which is now the "New South" NC is indeed a swing state now, and will be for the foreseeable future. Get used to it for those who don't like it (Nat'l GOP).

                Missouri I think MCCaskill eeks one out and hopefully she'll have Dem serving along with her in '16. I think Koster will be a hair better than Montee.

                If not Kuster in NH in '16 then I would say John Lynch

                Cortez-Mastos in my opinion will be the obvious choice. I believe if she was running against Heller she'll will be running away with by now, instead of it being neck to neck.

                Unfortunately in Arizona I thank that's the last we saw Gabby Giffords in public office. I believe Janet Napolitano will be the strongest choice for Dems.

                •  Your comment (0+ / 0-)

                  "Really that's like so out there, somebidy who thinks that should prob be drug tested."

                  Was that really necessary?

                  •  My Apologizes (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:

                    I didn't mean to sound blasphemous. It just poor choice of words on my behalf.

                    •  I've said things I shouldn't have said many times (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      GradyDem, Christopher Walker

                      ...I'm not offended by you suggesting that I'm on drugs, which I'm not.

                      "We don't have government anymore, we have an auction." -Lori Compas

                      by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 01:33:31 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Preciate U Understand (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:

                        It was just a spur in the moment thing, you really surprised me with the suggestion.

                        •  out there, though : future Senate nominees (0+ / 0-)

                          Well played on walking back the strong language, both of you. But the original assertion (about Bustos) struck me, too, as preposterous.

                          I'd love to see Allyson Schwartz in the Senate (more, in fact, than any other current member of the Commonwealth's Congressional delegation), but I don't think she'd walk to the nomination without a tussle. She might be a hard sell to the Pennsyltucky part of the state where I'm living.

                          From what I've gathered, Secretary Napolitano, whose future once looked so bright, would have a lot of bridges to repair to restore her home-state political fortunes.  If I lived in Arizona I'd be looking all over the place for someone else, while she does that.    

                          A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

                          by Christopher Walker on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 09:29:47 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

    •  Rasmussen (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I could be wrong, but I think the poll's only been around since the 2000 election.  In that one, Scotty was way off.  Said he made "adjustments" after that.  Seemed to be closer to the mark from '04 to '08.  But since the '08 election, seems to have let his bias take over again.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 05:13:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Who is Molly Munger? (0+ / 0-)

    And what does her prop try to do?

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 10:45:46 PM PDT

  •  Some interesting tidbits from that SUSA FL poll (7+ / 0-)

    Say what you want about the SurveyUSA Florida poll and Nelson running behind Obama, but there are quite a few things that somewhat explain the odd toplines.

    - Obama wins 18-34 by 23 points.
    Nelson wins the group by 11 points...
    In the Prez race, only 9% of this group is undecided, while in the Senate race 18% is.  Partly explains Nelson's underperformance, but also clearly good news for him in terms of undecided composition.

    - Obama wins women by 5, with 5% undecided.
    Nelson loses women by five, but 10% are undecided, while only 6% of men are undecided.  Same good-ish news for Nelson in terms of undecideds.

    - Mack wins older voters by the largest margin, but they are only 3% undecided, compared to 18% younger voters.

    - Very key stat: 1% of black voters undecided in Prez race, 12% undecided in Senate race.  (7% of whites and Hispanics undecided.)  It's a lock those undecided black voters will break heavily for Nelson.

    - Nelson wins cellphone voters by 15%.  Loses landline voters by 12%... but 4% of landline voters are undecided while a huge 20% of cellphone voters are undecided in the Senate race.  In the Prez race, 13% of cell users are undecided, while only 2% of landline voters are... and Obama wins cellphone voters by 34%.

    - 9% of Dems are undecided in Senate race, 2% of Republicans.

    - In Prez race, 1% of Dems will vote for "Other".  4% of Republicans will vote for "Other".  If this were to hold, this would be huge.  In 2008, Nader/Green got more votes than Barr/Constitution.  This poll not only suggests a reversal of that, but a 4-1 ratio.  It's a certainty that the right minor parties will get more votes than the left minor parties to some degree.

    Whether all these items are right or not, it is fairly easy to see why Nelson is underperforming Obama in the poll.  In short... young, black, cellphone using Democrats are undecided. :)

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Fri Jul 20, 2012 at 11:33:27 PM PDT

  •  Checkout intrade (0+ / 0-)

    Romney at 38!  Finally breaking through

  •  Obama leading Romney on Rassmussen poll? (0+ / 0-)

    That's GREAT NEWS for Romney.  (not)

  •  When does Romney head overseas? (0+ / 0-)

    How long is he going to be gone for?  Can't be more than a week right - just get some face time in at the Olympics (because he thinks his "saving the SLC games" is a big deal - I think he's wrong) visits to Israel and Poland?

  •  When it comes to talking about the healthcare law (0+ / 0-)

    Obama should really talk about the Republicans who support many of the reforms, including both of Bush's HHS secretaries, and Bill Frist.

    It would be a great line in one of  the debates to say "Governor Romney, even one of your top aides, Mike Leavitt, supports some of these common sense reforms, like state exchanges. In fact a large part of his job is encouraging states to implement these reforms."

    It would put Romney on the defensive and, as you can see from that article, it would plant more doubt in the minds of conservatives about how committed Romney is to repealing the law.

  •  CA-3 Garamendi v. Dalbow-Vann (0+ / 0-)

    John Garamendi has caught my eye as a House member who seems to me to be running scared ever since the redistricting lines were settled.

    Garamendi, in my opinion, has taken a large step to the right in his voting record since those new lines were announced.  I realize that the new CD3 is only barely a red district (I think about +3 Dem in registration?).  Then I read that Garamendi has less cash on hand than Dalbow-Vann, but he outraised her in the most recent quarterly contribution figures.

    So what is up in this race?  Garamendi has gone from an average California liberal Democrat that I agree with on 82% of roll calls in 2011,  to a Congressman who I am now agreeing with only 71% of the time in 2012, and who now seems a better fit for the New Democrat moderate group. [note: no other California Democrat saw his score fall this far, this is not a California pattern, nor a liberal Dem pattern, it really does seem to me to be a uniquely Garamendi pattern].

    Anyone have deeper insights into the developing Garamendi - Dalbow-Vann race?

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 10:48:26 AM PDT

  •  What about factoring in for votes LeMieux gave up? (0+ / 0-)

    He did have 13% and now polls are only asking about general election candidates - FL still has a primary

  •  Crit Luallen again rules out a Senate run in 2014 (5+ / 0-)

    against Mitch McConnell in favor of a 2015 run for Governor.

    I think she could still possibly be talked into running against McConnell, but she may consider the 2015 open governor's seat an easier option. There are a long list of possible candidates for both race on the Democratic, side including some that overlap. Right now I think that the most likely Democrat to challenge McConnell will be Secretary of State Allison Lundergan Grimes. Though the short list still has to include Auditor Adam Edelen, Speaker Greg Stumbo, Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer, Attorney General Jack Conway for the Senate.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 11:34:26 AM PDT

    •  She's building a solid resume, but has (0+ / 0-)

      she given any indication? Can she raise money that can be transferred? She raised something like $700,000 for her SoS bid, is that a lot for Kentucky? Do you think she'll be a good fundraiser? I'm asking a lot of questions!

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 11:15:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-Gov: Buono enlisted AKPD Message & Media. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, Paleo, KingofSpades

    The same firm that President Obama used.

    State Sen. Barbara Buono has been the least coy about her intentions, enlisting President Barack Obama’s media firm AKPD Message & Media and telling POLITICO she’s considering it “seriously with eyes wide open.”

    “I’m certainly not the pick of the party bosses. I’m driven by independence. I laid down my tracks as a progressive voice,” said Buono, who was ousted from leadership last year after frequent clashes with current state Senate president Stephen Sweeney, another potential gubernatorial candidate.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 01:36:05 PM PDT

  •  AZ-09: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The New York Times profiled individuals in Arizona who fought against Arpaio and SB1070. Sinema was one of the individuals featured in the article.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 02:27:09 PM PDT

  •  Some Democrats worried about Obama (5+ / 0-)

    campaign's burn rate.

    Dont have the WSJ subscription, but apparently, the first quote is this article is from...Doug Schoen.

    Even after June, I think Obama has like 4 times as much COH as Romney. There is less than four months left in the campaign.

    He raised that money for a reason, and it doesnt mean much to have any of it left past Nov, so I think spending it now is fine. It was inevitable we would see this kind of spending.

    •  They've spent $2.5 million on polling, which I (5+ / 0-)

      think is fantastic. This campaign is very well run and they know exactly what they are doing. I'm not worried at all.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 06:50:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agree 100%, my takeaway from that is... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, itskevin, askew

        ...OFA never flies by the seat of its pants.  They make sure they know damn well what is working and what isn't.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 08:05:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I wish I knew the feelings of the campaign brass (0+ / 0-)

          and whether or not they feel confident and able to backlash against Romney and Crossroads with their campaign and Priorities.

          Hail to the king, baby.

          by KingofSpades on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 08:09:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't know what exactly you mean (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            I'm sure they're confident they can win.  I'm sure they're confident their plan is sound and is plenty able to overcome any financial disadvantage.  I regrad it a foregone conclusion that they're confident about being able to win, and that mere gobs of opposing cash won't beat them.  They're worried about the economy, and while they're a little worried about opposing cash, I think that's still only in relation to the economy in that bad numbers the rest of the way make it easier for the GOP to sell its message.

            But beyond that, I don't know what you mean.  You say "backlash," but I seriously doubt they expect to be able to persuade voters to punish the GOP at the ballot box for their hordes of spending.  I don't think voters nationally will get quite turned off by Romney and his allies the way California voters got turned off by Meg Whitman.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 05:15:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I meant "respond", not backlash (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              my bad

              Hail to the king, baby.

              by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 05:21:35 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well I'm sure they're worried (0+ / 0-)

                Most likely they won't be able to respond to every attack.

                They'll have to pick and choose.

                But I'm sure they have a plan to attack and respond to whatever they think is most important to voters.

                The biggest risk of being outspent is that the wingnuts might be able to put additional states into play, probably/mostly in the Upper Midwest.  That's where their confidence about playing in Wisconsin or Michigan must come from:  late TV barrages there.  There are only so many things you can say in the same states, and there is such a thing as saturation in a given state.  But the reason there are no diminishing returns in a Presidential campaign is that you can spend in additional states, and that's where the worry has to be.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 10:23:51 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  It costs money. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

       Keeping hundreds of offices open is not cheap, but it is money well spent by the campaign. Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 07:04:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, 95 million over 22 million CoH (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 08:06:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Karl Rove trolled Ds on this topic via the WSJ (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:


      And the article you cite, along with Doug Schoen's concern trolling, is the result.

      It's reminiscent of some of the concern trolling we've seen on DKE.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 09:48:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Missouri (0+ / 0-)

    I forgot about Jay Nixon smh! If he get's in then I think he'll win!

  •  MN SUSA (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Paleo, askew

    Obama 46
    Romney 40
    Other 7
    Undecided 7


    Klobuchar 55
    Bills 31

    Voter ID:

    For 65
    Against 28

    Gay marriage ban:

    For 52
    Against 37

  •  Arkansas issue positions (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    34% of voters want to stop blocking implementation of Obamacare, and 58% want to continue blocking implementation of Obamacare.

    43% want to expand Medicaid, 47% do not want to expand Medicaid.

    47% favor a referendum (which will be on the ballot) legalizing medical marijuana. 46% oppose it.  

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