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This was referenced on the front page, but I want to highlight a critical finding from the most recent SurveyUSA poll of Florida, which has Obama up 5.  Note the following cross-tab:
Landline (75%): Romney 50, Obama 44
Cell Phone (25%) Obama 59, Romney 25

Here is why this is so important.  As I noted in an earlier diary on this subject

The CDC found that 25% of households (and 23% of adults) in the second half of 2009 had no landline service and only cell phone service (just 2% of households had no telephone service of any type). For certain subgroups in the population, the numbers are considerably higher: 30% of Hispanics are cell-only, as are 49% of adults ages 25-29"

One of the most disturbing trends in polling this cycle is the small percentage of the young that are turning up.  Remember, Obama carried 66-32.  Let's take look at the share of the 18-29 share in recent PPP polling:

Iowa, 18-29 in PPP is 15%, 2008 was 17%
New Mexico, 18-29 is 17%, 2008 was 21%
Wisconsin, 18-29 is 12%, 2008 was 22%
Virginia, 18-29 is 12%, 2008 was 21%
North Carolina 18-29 is 10%, 2008 was 17%

SurveyUSA's Florida poll found the 18-34 share of the electorate much close to the 2008 number.

It is important to understand here the significance.  In many of these states the undercounting of the young is enough to shift 3 or 4 points - enough to make a close state not so close.

Gallup discussed the issue of young voters

The 20-point deficit in turnout intentions for young voters compared with the current national average is the largest among major demographic subgroups. A table showing the full data on each subgroup can be found on page 2.

If history is a guide, young voters should become more likely to say they will definitely vote between now and the fall, as occurred in 2004 and 2008. These increases were much larger than the national increases in those years, suggesting young voters decide whether they will actually vote later than most voters do.

Gallup suggests that the gap between the current electorate and the 2008 electorate will close, as yound voters become more likely to vote.  It is possible that PPP is showing this, but in fact given the difference between SurveyUSA and Marist (both of which poll cell phones) and others, I think some of the difference is in the methodology.

In either case, though, the important thing to note here is that the electorate is likely to change in Obama's direction in the next 90 days.

It is close, but Romney needs something to change to actually win.

As some know, I have been running monte carlo simulations of the electoral college based on probabilities created by Chris Bowers.  As of this morning, Obama and 87% chance of winning and receives an average of 293 electoral votes

More detail on the simulation:
Cook's odds have actually improved over the last 6 weeks. He has moved a couple of states out of tossup to leaning Obama.

Here is the list state by state of the most recent numbers and the odds of winning a particular state.

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Comment Preferences

  •  You left off Tin can and string - Dewey 48% ;) (18+ / 0-)

    Just joking.

    Great Information!


    "Gentlemen, you can't fight in here! This is the War Room." - President Merkin Muffley

    by Farkletoo on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 12:24:23 PM PDT

    •  You guys are hurting my landline's feelings. He (12+ / 0-)

      knows our cell phones don't work in the house and is always there to receive calls. Of course people don't understand that our main phone is a land line no matter how hard we try, and that leads to us missing some time sensitive calls. So when they try our cell phones when we're home we miss those calls anyway.

      Even when we lived in northern New York State years back during a terrible ice storm that knocked out radio stations and electric power all over the area (instituting a curfew!) our faithful land line still worked for whatever reason. Cell phones weren't common then, but who knows what that heavy ice would have done to towers if we'd had them?

      So take it easy on the land lines. They're not as bad as all that. ;)

      "The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"

      by Lily O Lady on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 01:24:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My daughter has a landline for business reasons, (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Lily O Lady, True North, pgm 01, Matt Z

        though she uses her cell phone most. In election season all the polling and political calls on her landline are a big nuisance and she just hangs up. She never gets a polling call on her cell.

        "'s difficult to imagine what else Republicans can do to drive women away in 2012, unless they decide to bring back witch-hanging. And I wouldn't put it past them." James Wolcott

        by Mayfly on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 01:51:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  THere is no one in our neighborhood that has a (18+ / 0-)

    landline. We are in 60+ , 2 neighbors are 40+ , 1 50+ and another 60+. Only one is conservative. This is Eugene... Conservaties are rare in the city.

    How can you tell when Rmoney is lying? His lips are moving. Fear is the Mind Killer

    by boophus on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 12:29:18 PM PDT

    •  I talk to people (6+ / 0-)

      who are ending land line service frequently.  My 20 year old does not have a landline.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 01:14:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  We just ended our satellite tv service and will (6+ / 0-)

        watch on line or buy shows we like. So ads aren't even getting to us. I was tired of paying $20 a month for each of the 4 shows we like, subsidizing channels like FOX and CNN and the rest of the crap...

        We even bought a region 2 DVD player so we can order TV shows and movies from Europe. I am turning my desk top in to a DVR.

        Everything is in flux from the old method of campaigning as more people are moving to other mediums.  So I am not sure how accurate any polls really are.

        How can you tell when Rmoney is lying? His lips are moving. Fear is the Mind Killer

        by boophus on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 01:59:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I pray to sweet baby jesus the yougins show up! (8+ / 0-)

    btw the SIMS lucky palms is downloading that world now..  :)

  •  Voter suppression is aimed at college kids (5+ / 0-)

    Between that and a general disaffection among the young, I think Obama should not be counting on even 75% of his 2008 turnout.

    My 27 year old son said to me casually, "Face it, Mom. Everybody hates Obama. The left hates him because he caved to the right. The right hates him because they're assholes."

    I'm not agreeing with him. But he lives and teaches on a college campus and I take his diagnoses as an objective one.

    •  From my experience, that is not the case. (13+ / 0-)

      Look, I'm on the left and I certainly wasn't thrilled with some of the "caving" and the pre-negotiating we saw, but I certainly don't hate Obama.

      "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

      by elwior on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 12:56:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I recced Hrubec's comment because I think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wu ming

      that's a consideration.

      In agreement with eliwor, I don't think that most "left" people really hate Obama, but face it, that's how young people talk all the time.  "I hate this shirt."  They don't actually burn up in rage, they just don't like it.

      There are many "left people," even or especially younger people, who had idealistic views of the last election.  The idealism was quickly squelched in political realities.  Through the inauguration speech, all appeared well, then negotiating began.  That was OK too, but maybe recalcitrance among the right took too long to sink in.

      Many, young, idealistic or left people also had expectations - some of them direct from campaign promises - that Obama would take on certain issues.  When their expectations were not met, they were disaffected.

      They don't really "hate" Obama, but I've heard more than one 20-something say, "He's just another politician and won't stand for anything." or "He's always giving everything away to Republicans, so what's the difference."

      Now, that's not actual hate, but it has to be overcome to get them to vote.  Indifference is a killer in elections.  Some of the most indifferent people in the world are formerly enthusiastic people who've seen their hopes dashed.

      For the young, student loans are a big deal. The economy is a big deal (jobs). Discrimination in all its forms is still a big deal, including immigration reform.

      I hope he re-forms that close connection with the youth vote, because I want him to win. But from the things I head in my family and among their friends - pretty easy-going, liberal, progressive and idealistic like most youth - the campaign has some work to do.

      "The law is meant to be my servant and not my master, still less my torturer and my murderer." -- James Baldwin. July 11, 1966.

      by YucatanMan on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 05:18:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Romney (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        also has a lot of work to do to get his base to go to the polls. I just wonder if there will be fewer people voting in the general election on both sides, but Obama has the edge just based on EVs and a changing demographic that favors him.

    •  I think its safe to say (0+ / 0-)

      that the left is nowhere near as excited as they were in 2008. I mean part of that is due to just him posting impossible likeability numbers back then and his whole different type of politics thing, but part of it is just due to the recession itself. People didn't realize it would be this long. People didn't realize that he would have this high of a hill to climb, or that republicans would work THIS hard to stop ANYTHING he does. It does leave a somewhat sour taste in people's life. I think that when people look back on Obama's first term it'll be a lot brighter of an experience than how its currently being portrayed.....but that really depends on him getting a second term because we all know that history is written by the winners.

      Interested in learning about math, probability, or Computer Science and their connections to the real world? Learn more at my site:, or visit me on Twitter: @MindAfterMath

      by LEARNINGlover on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 05:31:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This is incredible information (13+ / 0-)

    If these numbers hold up, I can't see how Mitt Romney ever gets to 270 electoral votes the way things are going now. This brings me to this question-- who was the last Republican candidate to win the presidency without Florida (you'd probably have to go a long way to get that answer).

    "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." --Gandhi

    by alaprst on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 12:46:51 PM PDT

  •  This is interesting, because everyone seems (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    to assume the opposite...that things will shift in Romney's direction as the election nears.

    Of course there may be different trends at work at the same time, with undecideds breaking slightly towards Romney but pro-Obama younger voters also deciding to show up in greater numbers.

  •  Why do they assume cell phone = young? (14+ / 0-)

    I'm over 50 and my husband is over 60, and we don't have a land line, and only use cell phones.

    We live in Florida and had the land line disconnected in 2010 when we received so many calls about the campaign that the land line went from being a convenience to a nuisance. Don't miss it at all, and don't miss the $60/month it cost.

    For me, Mitt reminds me of Jeff Bridges in Starman. He's like an alien that hasn't read the entire manual. You know, he's going, "Nice to be in a place where the trees are the right size. -- Robin Williams on Letterman 26 Apr 2012

    by hungrycoyote on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 12:55:00 PM PDT

    •  we have a landline (5+ / 0-)

      And I'll likely keep it, since we have dsl.

      If we decide to switch to cable, then I'd likely get rid of the landline, or get a bundle that includes phone.

      We also have cell phones, and those are what we use for most of our communication. I can call or text, I can take and send pics, I can even check facebook and video chat if I really want.

      The landline is good because I can give out that number to people I don't want to talk to.

      •  LOL! That's the funny part about it. We were (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mrblifil, Mayfly, True North

        spending $60/month and near the end just unplugged it from the wall because every time it rang, it was somebody we didn't want to talk to.

        For me, Mitt reminds me of Jeff Bridges in Starman. He's like an alien that hasn't read the entire manual. You know, he's going, "Nice to be in a place where the trees are the right size. -- Robin Williams on Letterman 26 Apr 2012

        by hungrycoyote on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 01:20:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Ooma (0+ / 0-)

        I picked one up a couple of years ago. It plugs into my router, my landline number was ported to it, and I can plug the landline handset into it as well - useful for business calls.

        Then I cancelled my phone service entirely.

        My monthly phone bill can vary a lot - everywhere from about $1.18 to $3.05 in the past year. ;)  (And I make a lot of calls for work - that's 4-6 hours/day on the phone many days.)

        My iPhone is my primary phone, but I like Ooma because it has caller ID and call blocking. I use both quite frequently.

        "I like to go into Marshall Field's in Chicago just to see all the things there are in the world that I do not want." M. Madeleva, C.S.C.

        by paxpdx on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 02:47:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I was thinking the exact same thing (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hungrycoyote, True North, fladem

      I haven't had a land line in years. The town I live in used to have water meter readings over our phone lines. It would "phone home" with the reading. They finally established a new system with a remote sensor that they come by and get a reading off of. They wouldn't have invested in this system if a good portion of the residents hadn't dumped their land lines. The homeowners here are not college kids.

      In my group of friends and neighbors, ranging in age from 30 somethings to 50 somethings, most no longer have land lines.

      48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam "Compassion is the radicalism of our time." ~ Tenzin Gyatso, 14th Dalai Lama -7.88, -6.21

      by Siri on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 01:17:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The numbers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I cited are based on a CDC study.  I think the assumption is that the young are less scared of being with a landline.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 01:18:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don't think the youth will vote... (0+ / 0-)

    Because there is no excitement around the campaign this time.  I think that is the strategy by the GOP and Romney, because low turnout benefits the GOP - so Romney is bland and boring, he'll pick a bland and boring running mate and then spend the whole time saying nothing in regards to his policy ideas and just smear the President via $500M+ in carpetbombing attack ads.  

    Youth and many non-political types completely turned off by the campaigns and don't bother to vote.  

    •  as long as Latinos, AAs, & women vote...youth (10+ / 0-)

      vote won't matter because those 3 demographics will win it for Obama

      bush won against kerry with 41% Latino vote
      mcshame lost to Obama with 34% latino vote

      since then onyl grown larger and romney only carrying 22% of

      romney carrying only 5% of AA vote and AAs do know this vote is just as important as '08

      Obama leading amongst the largest voting block = WOMEN

      youth smouth ....preferably they would turn out but Obama wins without them as long as the other 3 voting blocks show up

    •  Have you watched coverage (11+ / 0-)

      of any of Obama's speeches or town halls?

      It is simply not true that there is no excitement around the campaign. Granted, there is not, and will not be, anything like the worldwide frenzy that existed around Obama in '08, but that doesn't mean there's "no excitement"; it just means we've reverted to the typical historical pattern.

      In most election years, the excitement starts building at the conventions and continues building through the debates. There is still plenty of time for that to happen.

      "These are not candidates. These are the empty stand-ins for lobbyists' policies to be legislated later." - Chimpy, 9/24/10

      by NWTerriD on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 01:37:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I disagree (0+ / 0-)

      I think that Obama is still "cool". Its hard to judge their numbers and whether there will still be the buzz that was there in 2008, but Obama's still a cool guy and similar to one of the things that got Bush re-elected (and I really hate comparing Obama to Bush but bear with me), is the whole thing of "who would you rather have a beer with". And I still think that with Obama there's going to be a lot of peer pressure towards voting like there was in 2008. Ultimately its an individualistic decision and I'm being a bit more optimistic than normal, but I don't think the youth will be the problem. these new voter registration laws affect the youth vote is something different though. And I wonder if that will have a significant impact on the turnout.

      Interested in learning about math, probability, or Computer Science and their connections to the real world? Learn more at my site:, or visit me on Twitter: @MindAfterMath

      by LEARNINGlover on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 05:40:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP weights by age (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distraught, Mayfly

    So the numbers you see above are by design, unless they use different methods for state polls.  The share should be a little lower than 2008, because the share of registered voters age 18-29 has declined from 18% in 2008 to 16% in 2010 as per the census, and is presumably even lower now, prior to massive registration activity for the 2012 elections.  But the numbers they used for WI, VA, and NC do seem a bit low even considering all that.

    As far as the raw numbers, for the national polls, about 4% of respondents are 18-29, before adjusting for demographics and weighting for age.  

    •  I think you can (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mrblifil, Lawrence, Delilah

      question how good that wieghting is.  SurveyUSA actually wrote an article on this subject.  They noted the sample size of the young is so small in some polling that even if you re-wieght, you don't really know what number to use to re-weight with.

      Much of the PPP polling actually has 18-29 numbers smaller than 2010.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 01:21:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If Obama can successfully link Willard to Ryan (5+ / 0-)

    and his Medicare killing budget, then I suspect Romney's advantage among the landline users to sink.   And since we know that the elderly tend to vote more than the 18-29 demo, making sure to it sticks that Willard would end Medicare as we know it if he became President.

    Willard choosing Ryan as his VP would almost do that job for Obama.

    •  Which is why (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      True North

      I don't think there's any chance he'll choose Ryan.

      "These are not candidates. These are the empty stand-ins for lobbyists' policies to be legislated later." - Chimpy, 9/24/10

      by NWTerriD on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 01:47:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But Willard has already (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pistolSO, Aquarius40, Matt Z, Delilah

        embraced the Ryan budget so the link is already there.

        "Growing up is for those who don't have the guts not to. Grow wise, grow loving, grow compassionate, but why grow up?" - Fiddlegirl

        by gulfgal98 on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 02:25:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, but Obama has to make sure it sticks (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LEARNINGlover, gulfgal98

          I know he's already started to open that line of attack on Romney in Florida.   I am hoping that it sticks in the mind of the undecideds and the independents that Willard Mitt Romney would not hesitate to end Medicare as we know it just so the ultra-rich can have another tax cut.

          Hopefully, somebody can do a mock-up of a Romney Medicare Voucher to drive home the point to voters in Florida.

    •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

      This is something that I've been wanting Obama to do for a while and I'm glad he started doing it in Florida. Saying Romney doesn't have any plans isn't an effective message (in my opinion). Saying Rommey will do this and will do that, is more effective because people can connect the dots. Romney endorsed the Ryan budget and so we can easily link Romney to the things that budget endorses. And it no longer becomes a hypothetical of "i think Romney likes big businesses and hates the middle class" it becomes "Romney said this bill is good. This bill does __. This bill does __. You don't want that." And I think thats a more effective message.

      Its the same message that worked for repubs in 2010 and the Affordable Care Act, except that is was based on lies. But people didn't care about that. They believed what they were told and they were told concrete examples and horror stories of how bad Obama was and they turned out to elect the worse congress in history to try to undo the Affordable Care Act thinking it was bad for them.

      Interested in learning about math, probability, or Computer Science and their connections to the real world? Learn more at my site:, or visit me on Twitter: @MindAfterMath

      by LEARNINGlover on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 05:47:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Best Way to Get the Young Vote (0+ / 0-)

    Run on repealing the entire U.S.A. Patriot Act. This is a heinous piece of legislation that continuously points out the hypocrisy of congress towards the rights guaranteed under the 1st ten amendmendments of our constitution. Championing the repeal, and then actually repealing it, would demonstrate progressive resolve against the forces tearing at our basic freedoms.

  •  So if there's a big storm before Election Day... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    secret38b, gulfgal98, Matt Z, Juliann

    ...that knocks out landline service in swing states, Obama wins big!

    Want to see my Punditry Certificate?

    Mitt Romney '12: Berlusconi without the sex and alcohol!

    by Rich in PA on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 01:23:29 PM PDT

  •  Pollsters (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lawrence, wu ming

    intend to hide behind their logarithms involving who is a likely voter. Interesting how that decision accrues to Romney's benefit across the board...

  •  The cell-only numbers (8+ / 0-)

    are probably significantly higher than they were 3 years ago. As the recession has worn on, more and more people have had to find ways to cut corners, and landlines seem like one of the easier cuts to make if you've got good cell service.

    Btw, I'm with those who are offended at the notion that cell-only means young. Young at heart, maybe (which means leftier :) ), but I cut the cord years ago, and I'm in my mid-50's.

    "These are not candidates. These are the empty stand-ins for lobbyists' policies to be legislated later." - Chimpy, 9/24/10

    by NWTerriD on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 01:28:10 PM PDT

  •  Can't wait to see the polling results for (7+ / 0-)

    Morse code households. Probably shows
    Romney at 98%

  •  young are less likely to vote (0+ / 0-)

    2008 saw a higher percentage of youth voting than before. Law of averages says it will decline. When unemployment is so high among recent college graduates who came of age with Obama as president,  the optimism for hope and change will diminish. So IMO the polls are not undersampling youth, we just got work to do to get them energized.


    Democrats *do* have a plan for Social Security - it's called Social Security. -- Ed Schultz

    by FredFred on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 02:23:49 PM PDT

    •  Young college graduates aren't stupid about why (0+ / 0-)

      the economy sucks. They know the scum bag traitor bastard GOP congressional members and their candidate for the tumbrels plutocrat masters are intentionally tanking the economy.

      WTF!?!?!?! When did I move to the Republic of Gilead?!

      by IARXPHD on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 02:51:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A couple of observations (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Rooe, llywrch, chaboard, Taget, Juliann

    1) This makes phone banking less and less useful.

    2) This raises the importance of actually knocking on doors.  First, it may be the only way to get in touch with people.  And, actual human contact is always better than a phone call.

    3) This makes voter registration increasingly important, and if you can get the cards, you can note the phone number for reminding that person about voting and where to vote.

    I was at a meeting several days ago when a person was talking about going door-to-door but it was only going to be to registered voters.  When I observed in my town essentially that a friend and I registered 800 voters, the person replied in the county adjacent to ours only 5% of new registered actually voted.  I noted that in my town Obama won and neither Kerry nor Gore had won my town.  I KNOW for a fact that well over 90% of the people I helped to register voted in 2008.  

    With the Republicans making voter registration more and more difficult, in areas (like mine) where our vote moves we must knock on doors.  

    Phone banking doesn't register people and doesn't get to our vote.

    For reasons I won't go into I have two different landlines and two different cell phones.  I have been polled and push-polled on both landline numbers in the last two months; I have received nothing on my cell phone numbers!

    Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens.

    by MoDem on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 02:36:49 PM PDT

    •  if you live in a college town (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      just pick an apartment complex with lots of students in your neighborhood, find the polling place, and go knock on doors. easy as cake.

    •  Coupled with my hatred of phonebanking (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      this logic may help me find more occasions to knock on doors (which I actually do prefer).

      Another thought: I don't pick up calls from unfamiliar numbers as a rule - and I assume that someone who needs to reach me will leave a message ... but when phonebank scripts always say not to leave a message ... hmm ...  I've been getting (and completely ignoring) a lot of calls from unidentified numbers; could any of these be campaign calls?

      Sarah Palin: The Palin plan is quite simple. My elderly mother (drily): It would have to be.

      by Juliann on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 02:22:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  In 2012 (0+ / 0-)

      organization will be critical.  Knocking doors is going to be important, as will voter registration efforts, which have gotten more difficult.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 07:39:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Also big for Romney (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO, Taget

    are the following:

    Horse and buggy users
    Slide rule users
    Hummer owners
    People who don't use The Google
    People who've never heard of The Twitter or The Facebook
    Leisure suit-wearing bachelors with mirrorballs in their "pads"
    People who've never tried The Reefer
    Pat Boone groupies
    Lawrence Welk fans
    Granada "war" reenactors

    "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

    by kovie on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 02:41:01 PM PDT

  •  I' ve been driving (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    llywrch, bridav58

    Traveling thru the Midwest, IL, IN, OH, MI. Haven't seen 1 Romney sticker yet. I've seen Obama, and W04, but no Romney. I don't sense the enthusiasm from the Rs. My 2 kids 28&30, my nieces 25,28,22, nephews 21&24
    all Obama. My suggestion is we have our own poll.
    Poll your youngsters and find out if they're voting and for who. Then we should post up.

    •  I have not seen a Romney (0+ / 0-)

      yard sign or bumper sticker in Florida.  I have seen a few Obama bumper stickers.

      In 2004 it was clear in October that the Bush people had really got people involved.  There was enourmous visibility here.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Sun Jul 22, 2012 at 07:41:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Romney b/s (0+ / 0-)

        Viewing and counting bumperstickers is anecdotal but I think its a leading indiator. Now maybe people are waiting for the VP nominee but with all the supposed "not Obama" sensationalism around, you'd think Reich Wingers would be aching to advertise Romney. Maybe once he gets back from the dressage competition.

  •  52 and 54 in my house. No land line since 04. (0+ / 0-)

    So yeah, all cell does not mean young. It more likely means people who know how to not piss away money.

    WTF!?!?!?! When did I move to the Republic of Gilead?!

    by IARXPHD on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 02:47:16 PM PDT

  •  We have neither. We have Internet line. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    We got Magic Jack (have no financial interest in it) which cost something like $50 for hardware and $20/year for local and unlimited long distance. There is a mini second lag in voice but we don't use it much. And we can take it with us when we travel. Take it out of our router and plug into our laptop. If we are off-line when a call comes in the voice goes to email.

    We are trying to be last people to get cell phones and as you might have guess we are cheap/thrifty.

    I don't know what consciousness is or how it works, but I like it.

    by SocioSam on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 03:10:28 PM PDT

  •  New GOP bill: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Byblis, askew, redrelic17

    "You must prove residence by answering a land line for us to validate your voter registration."

    The founding fathers knew of the mutually corrupting influences of Church and state, wisely sending them to opposite corners.

    by emidesu on Sat Jul 21, 2012 at 03:21:24 PM PDT

  •  I propose a law: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, Juliann

    Make all prospective voters PRODUCE THEIR CELL PHONES AT THE POLLING PLACE.  Should they not have a cell phone, it's a simple matter to visit their local provider, fill out the necessary paperwork and pay the required fees.

  •  Repubs never lost Ohio and won the election. They (0+ / 0-)

    haven't won election without Florida since 1920. Romney want win Ohio.

  •  everyone keeps saying the kids won't vote (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Juliann, fladem

    but they turned out in a big way in 2004 as well as 2008, and the obama campaign is going to put serious effort into GOTV and voter registration. the % of the population that's young is growing, because of sheer demographics. i think we'll see youth, black, latino and asian voting levels greater than 2008 this november, if for no other reason than that their numbers are growing, and more of them are aging into the electorate.

    the problem we'll have to contend with isn't enthusiasm so much as vote suppression. so all you oldsters griping in advance about imagined youth stabs in the back, get thee to your local dem HQ and ask them about helping with voter registration. if you live in a college town, adopt your neighborhood student-dense apartment complex, and knock on doors on election day.

    but don;t assume we're doomed, and blame that imagined doom on the kids. because that sort of attitude does not endear you to the voters you want to motivate. be part of the solution, and organize.

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