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Unfortunately it has taken me a month to get the second half of this diary published, but a lot of time is required for compiling all this data.

This is the second part to the highly popular legislative redistricting analysis. Part 1 can be found here: http://www.dailykos.com/...

District 29: Centered in some of the western exurbs centered around Buffalo. This is one of the most Republican districts in the state. These districts likely won’t be challenged at all. Representative Bruce Anderson is going to become Senator Bruce Anderson after 18 years in the lower chamber. Tea Partier Marion O’Neill looks to have a nearly free shot at the slightly-less-Republican 29A, but the DFL has lined up behind long time police officer Barrett Chrissis, and the AFL-CIO is actually putting resources at this district. The IP is playing here, but it won’t sway the outcome. Joe McDonald, who succeeded Tom Emmer in the House, will have no trouble in 29B
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 30: Much like district 29, but even more Republican and centered around St. Michael/Albertville and Elk River. Current State Rep (and former SoS before being dispelled by Mark Ritchie) Mary Kiffmeyer wants a promotion, and should get it. Elk River city councilman Nick Zerwas will get a ticket to St. Paul in 30A, David Fitzsimmons will get his in 30B
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 31: This is the part of Anoka County that makes Anoka County Republican. The rest of the county is actually pretty marginal, but this area is blood red exurbs. Michelle Benson, Tom Hackbarth, and Kurt Daudt all officially have opponents, but they are all token in nature.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 32: This is a district that has some of my Republican friends groaning. They really REALLY wanted this district to be split vertically and extended northward and if done right, could have helped in district 11 for Team Red. Courts didn’t go along with that. This essentially a newly Republican area centered in Chisago and Isanti Counties. The Democrats have an interesting candidate for senate in the form of Jeske Noordgraaf (That is an awesome name, ain’t it) and she is a veterinarian that is Chairman of Sunrise Township (essentially a mayor) and Sunrise township is quite Republican. Current (and former) senator Sean Nienow is up for reelection after recapturing his old seat from Rick Olseen in 2010. And former senator Rick Olseen is running against freshman Republican Bob Barrett, who got his seat by beating DFLer Jeremy Kalin. Follow all that? This is a musical chairs district for sure. Democrats still controlled this area before 2010, but few areas in the state have moved harder faster away from the DFL than here. That being said, it takes more than 1 cycle to completely write off an area like this, and Olseen is tough, and has been a fixture in Chisago County politics since his first election in 1990.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Lean R

District 33: Money Money Money Money. This includes the wealthiest areas of the entire state around Lake Minnetonka, plus exurbs not around the lake. The exceedingly wealthy in Minnesota lean Republican but not to the same level they do in other states, and the exurbanites in district 33B are as conservative as the ones in 29 and 30. The Republican electorate is so conservative in this area that Some Dude David Osmek beat 2-term Representative Connie Doepke for the party endorsement because apparently she was insufficiently conservative or something. Regardless, those two are duking it out in a primary in August for the senate senate. Jerry Hertaus is looking like a lock in the absurdly Republican 33A, and incumbent Steve Smith has garnered a challenger from the Right in 33B, but Smith looks to be the favorite in the richer and less Republican of the House districts.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 34: Maple Grove. In terms of raw vote totals, Maple Grove is the place Republicans need to run up the margins to be competitive statewide. Speaker Zellers represents 34B, and isn’t in any trouble. Neither are Representative Peppin and Senator Limmer.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 35: This district has me scratching my head a little bit. Tea Party Wunderkind Branden Petersen is looking for a quick promotion to the senate as a freshman at the ripe old age of 26, but he is throwing elbows around in his district in his first term, and is not a shoo-in. That being said, he will likely be the youngest senator in 2013. 14-year Republican incumbent it holding down the fort in 35A, and 2-term Republican incumbent Peggy Scott is doing the same in 35B
Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 36: This is DFL area along the river in the NW suburbs. There was a really weird situation with the senate district here in 2010 around octogenarian Leo Foley. It is hard to see Benjamin Kruse catching lightning in a bottle twice. He is facing Anoka-Hennepin School District Chairman John Hoffman. Due to when and how the lines were drawn, the Anoka Hennepin School District is absolutely massive, having more students than all of Minneapolis. In the House, DFLer Denise Dittrich is hanging it up after 4 terms in 36A. Grace Dittrich is likely to replace her. In 36B, Mellissa Hortman is running for a 4th term. The IP is plating in 36B, so that adds a little X-factor there
Senate: Lean D
House A: Likely D
House B: Likely D

District 37: Blaine and Spring Lake Park. Blaine leans Republican now, but it used to be a DFL stronghold, and Spring Lake Park is a center-left suburb that swings violently with the tide. This district is also one of the strongest IP areas in the entire state. In the senate freshman Republican Pam Wolf is facing former State representative (circa 2000) Alice Johnson in the senate district. I give the edge narrowly to Johnson, as this is a district that Obama will win and Klobuchar will CRUSH in. 37A is the more DFL friendly of the two House districts, and 75-year old former State Representative Jerry Newton is coming out of retirement to face current Republican Senate Staffer Mandy Benz. I have to give the edge to the veteran politico in the friendly district. In the more Republican 37B, Tim Sanders is a strong incumbent, but he has drawn a primary opponent from the right. I think Sanders should win this handily, but bigger upsets have happened.
Senate: Lean D
House A: Lean D
House B Likely R

District 38: This district is sort of odd. In the house, Majority Leader Matt Dean is in no trouble, and neither is 24-year incumbent Representative Runbeck in the other house seat. In the senate seat, Republican Roger Chamberlain is a freshman who succeeded a DFLer for the seat. But it really is unlikely that Tim Henderson is able to capture the same DFL spirit that former Senator Rummel had.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 39: Eastern Washington County. The Southern half is dominated by Blue Stillwater, with the northern district dominated by Red Forest Lake. Republican sophomore Senator Ray Vandeveer decided against running in this new district. There is a primary between Eric Langness and Karin Housley. Neither one of them has any electoral experience, but I can’t say I know much about either of them. The DFL got a solid candidate in the form of former 2-term DFL representative Julie Bunn. Bunn starts off as the favorite here given her experience and unsettled Republican field. But the district is swingy, and I would not be surprised to see a Republican win here. In 39A, the Forest Lake district, 3-term GOP Representative Bob Dettmer seems poised to win his 4th. In the Stillwater-based district Freshman Republican Kathy Lohmer who unseated Bunn by a narrow plurality victory in 2010 is running against a no name DFL businessman. Incumbency matters, but this is a tough district for a Republican to hold in a 2-way race, and in non-2010 elections.
Senate: Lean D
House A: Safe R
House B: Toss-up

District 40: Brooklyn Park. Other than Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth, Brooklyn Park gives the DFL the highest net vote total out of any city in the state. Safe DFL all around. In fact, no Republicans filed in the Senate seat, or 40A (which is the slightly-less DFL portion of the senate district)
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 41: Columbia Heights, Fridley, and New Brighton. These are some of the bluest inner ring suburbs you’re going to find. My parents actually live in this district now. No Republicans will be a serious challenge here. I graduated high school in this district after relocating from the Iron Range as a teenager with my family. I actually graduated with Representative Caroline Laine’s youngest daughter. Representative Laine was a school board member at the time. Interestingly, Tim Utz, the 2010 Republican candidate for this district is mounting a Constitution Party challenger to Laine, along with another Republican by the name of Laura Palmer.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 42: Marginally DFL area in the north, and strong DFL area is the south. The now-defunct Ramsey County Vikings Stadium proposal would have put the new stadium smack dab in the middle of this district. The stadium will be built in Downtown Minneapolis, FWIW. On the senate side, 4-term state rep Bev Scalze is taking this new open seat as an opportunity for a promotion. She drew a weak opponent in the form of April King. Mrs. King does not seem to have much of a shot, as she is running in an unfriendly district, has no political experience, nor much in terms of a campaign structure. On the H. ouse side, I am actually excited for the candidate in the less-blue 42A. Dr. Barb Yarusso is a graduate of my alma mater (both high school and college). She is a brilliant engineer, and a really likable woman. She has good connections to fundraising sources in the science and technology world to boot. Dr. Yarusso is facing off against accountant and religious activist Russ Bertsch. This district favors the DFL, although not as much as 42B, but Yarusso starts with a decent head start. In 42B, a much younger professor Ike Isaacson is holding the DFL mantle. Isaacson is a person whom I have worked with on the campaign trail over the last few years. He is facing off against a fellow fresh face Ken Rubenzer, a Republican businessman. This district is just a bridge too far for a Republican to win, especially with a DFL political strategist and a Republican political novice.
Senate: Likely D
House A: Lean D
House B: Likely D

District 43: This is a district made up of inner and second ring suburbs to the north and east of St. Paul. It is a lot like district 42, in the fact that 43A in the north is marginally DFL, and 43B is strongly DFL with the senate seat a combination thereof. Chuck Wiger has been the DFL senator for this area since the 1996 elections, so he isn’t going anywhere. In 43A there is a DFL primary, will all of the establishment support going to Peter Fischer against lawyer Bob Hill. Fischer should win the primary in a walk. In the general election either Fischer or Hill will go up against GOP lawyer Stacey Stout. Stout seems to have her act and campaign together, which is a rarity in the MNGOP these days, so she will be a formidable opponent. The district still leans DFL, but overwhelmingly. Given the uncertainty, it could go either way but that may change down the road as the campaign matures.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Toss-up
House B: Safe D
District 44: Rich suburbs (but not really exurbs). Plymouth is a Republican stronghold. And Minnetonka is a pretty DFL city. Norminally Republicans should win this area. But DFL senator Terri Bonoff (who has been courted repeatedly to take on Erik Paulsen) has been the senator here since 2005. Bonoff is about as strong of a candidate as you’re going to get in Minnesota on the DFL side. That being said, she drew former Tim Pawlenty Chief of Staff David Gaithier. Republicans obviously have to be happy with this recruit, but Bonoff is going to be very tough to beat, even in this kind of turf. 44A is the Republican part of this district, and Sarah Anderson hasn’t made any real missteps in her 6 years in the seat, she is safe. At only 40 years old, Anderson may have a future in higher office down the road. In 44B, DFLer John Benson is looking for his 4th term, much like Anderson. His road is not quite as friendly as Johnson’s, but he shouldn’t have much of an issue against a random businessman Mark Stefan.
Senate: Likely D
House A: Safe R
House B: Lean D

District 45: Cystal and New Hope. These are more working class inner suburbs. The Republicans got token candidates here. For reference, Senator Ann Rest has been elected without incident since 1984, and Representative Lyndon Carlson since 1972. There is an open seat in 45B, but 45B is the more DFL of the two seats. Safe DFL all around, no campaigns needed
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 46: St. Louis Park and Hopkins. St. Louis Park has a large liberal Jewish population (including the Franken family), and Hopkins is a center-left upper-middle class suburb. The DFL has strong incumbents and a tailwind here. Outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul proper, this is probably the most liberal district in the state. Senator Ron Latz, and Representatives Steve Simon, and Ryan Winkler will be reelected by blowout margins against three some-dude candidates.
Senate Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 47: (Does anyone else get annoyed having to jump back and forth across the metro to follow the numbers numerically???) . Republican vote sink in the SW exurbs. The DFL has exactly zero presence here. The DFL didn’t field a candidate against Joe Hoppe in 47B, and Ernie Leidiger in 47A drew a Some Dude opponent. The senate race will be interesting, because apparently Deputy Senator Majority Leader pissed off someone, as a Bachmann-level bomb-thrower kept her from even getting her party’s endorsement for the seat. We go to a primary here with lots and lots of outside involvement with the RedState types backing Schwichtenberg, and the establishment backing Ortman. It is fun to watch this show from afar. It certainly has been popcorn worthy in my view.
Senate Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 48: The southern part of this district is fairly Republican Eden Prairie (This is Erik Paulsen’s stomping grounds), but the northern part is clearly center-left portions of Minnetonka. The senate seat is out of reach for the DFL, as David Hann has been an inoffensive legislator for the last 10 years. 48B is 100% safe forRepresentative Jennifer Loon. But 48A is can’t be considered anything other than a toss-up. It is DFL-leaning, and has been represented by the DFL for quite a few years, but a Republican was swept in with the Red Wave in 2010, and Kirk Stensrud is in for quite the political brawl with Hopkins school board member Yvonne Selcer in the center-left 48A.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Toss-up
House B: Safe R

District 49: Edina and west Bloomington. The western part of Bloomington is marginal, while the eastern part is quite Blue. Edina is actually center-right. It requires more more ink than one diary should contain to fully describe all of the quirky things about these districts. But here is the down and dirty version: Edina was represented by an Arne Carlson Republican Ron Erhardt in the legislature from 1990-2008. In 2008 Erhardt was primaried from the right by Keith Downey. Downy went on to win 2 terms in the house, and is now running for senate. Erhardt is back looking for his old seat as a DFLer, after leaving the Republican party. Downey’s old house seat is more Republican than the senate seat he is seaking, and he is facing a bright young Puerto Rican lawyer Melisa Franzen. The senate district leans Republican, and given Downey’s electoral experience, he is the favorite. In his old house district, now numbered 49A, it is hard to say what will happen given Erhardt’s strong campaign and the Republicans’ adequate but unimpressive nominee Bill Glahn. 49B is about as politically even district as you are going to find anywhere. Republican Paul Mazorol had a tumultuous short tenure in the House, and instead of facing a rematch with the man he edged in 2010, has opted to leave politics. Former DFL Representative Paul Rosenthal was then left without an opponent, so the GOP scrambled and found a lady by the name of Terry Jacobson to run, but as far as I can tell she has no experience in the political realm at all. Rosenthal is feeling pretty good about his campaign, even with the marginal nature of the district.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Toss-up
House B: Lean D

District 50: Eastern Bloomington and Richfield. I actually moved to this district earlier this year. I would be surprised if Republicans came close to winning anything here. It is quite liberal. The IP is playing in 50A, but I am not sure how serious they are about that race. Halverson Wiklund, Linda Slocum, and Ann Lencezewski will all be in St Paul in January.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 51: Burnsville and Eagan. This is really swingy territory, and I expect both parties to control all 3 of these seats at one point or another through the decade. All 3 seats were held by the DFL prior to 2010 (this is the old 38), and all 3 are held by Republicans now. For the decade, these will remain toss-ups regardless of who controls them. But for 2012 we have a rematch of the 2010 Senate card with Carlson taking on Daley for his hold seat. In the ever so slightly bluer 51A we have another rematch with former rep Sandra Masin taking on current rep Diane Anderson. In the slightly redder 51B Representative Doug Wardlow dodged a bullet when the man that used to occupy his seat, Mike Obermueller chose to run against John Kline instead of seeking a rematch. The DFL didn’t get a strong candidate here, so Wardlow starts in a marginally better position than Daley or Anderson.
Senate: Toss-up
House A: Toss-up
House B: Lean R

District 52: This is the quite liberal parts of northern Dakota County. The Republicans have a small presence at the southern fringe of this district, but this is DFL territory. This district is a lot like District 50, which lies to the northwest. 26-year Senator James Metzen looks to become President of the Senate again in 2013 after a 2-year hiatus in the minority. There is a Republican primary in 52A to take on incumbent Rick Hansen. And 10-year incumbent Joe Atkins has a token opponent Paul Tuschy, who has a very strange website, which seems to lack everything, including a picture of the candidate, and a biography, and anything really.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 53: Woodbury and Maplewood. Maplewood is quite DFL, and Woodbury is slightly so. The Republicans have freshman  Andrea Kieffersitting in the more Republican 53B, so they have a better than 50/50 shot at holding that. But the rest of the seats should be strong for the DFL. Ted Lillie, a Republican lives here and is running, but this is a rough, rough district for a Republican to win. Interestingly, it is entirely plausible that Michele Bachmann will be represented by DFLers in the state house, state senate, and US house (She lives in MN-4 now)
Senate: Lean D
House A: Safe D
House B: Lean R

District 54: Before I go into this detail about this district, there is something that people need to know about Minnesota politics. There are very few political dynasties in the state. There are some very prominent families, but not many of them flock to politics like the Kennedys or the Bushes. One of the few exceptions to this rule is the Sieben family. Brothers Michael and Harry were legislators back in the 70s and 80s. Harry, was a general in the Minnesota  National Guard, and cofounded one of the state’s largest lawfirms, which is named after him and a couple other founders. Michael’s daughter is Katie Sieben, and has represented this center-right Southern Washington County based district like her father and uncle before her. I don’t expect her to lose, even though the district leans against her, as her old district leaned the against her as well. This is another one of the districts where the House seats are very different from one another. 54A is quite decisively DFL friendly. This is the open house seat, and the IP is making a play for it. The IP can really throw a wrench in projections of elections, but the natural lean of the district and the evenly thin resumes of the DFL and Republican candidates should render this one with the district’s lean. 54B is more Red than 54A is blue, and there is a 10-year incumbent Republican McNamara there. He is safe.
Senate: Likely D
House A: Lean D
House B: Safe R

District 55: Scott County. This is Republican territory to the core. Prior Lake school board member Eric Pratt should win the senate seat over the winner of the DFL primary. HD 44A incumbent Michael Beard is safe, and the winner of the Republican primary in 55B is safe.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 56: Swingy Burnsville to the east and marginally Republican Savage to the west. The lines were redrawn in this area rather drastically. This area used to be represented by the DFL before 2010, but the western part of the district had been shifting away from the DFL for a while. I think freshman Dan Hall mostly got a pass, garnering a B-level challenger, but considering he is a freshman, and this area was a DFL area before, he is not 100% safe. 95% safe, but not 100. On the House side, freshman Pam Myhra was a winner in redistricting, getting a Savage-centric district. The man she unseated in 2010, Will Morgan, got an open Burnsville based seat to run in. The seat still leans slightly Republican, but the Republicans are running a political neophyte, so the former 2-term Rep is at least even money.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Toss-up

District 57: Rosemount and Apple Valley. This is fairly Republican area, and the DFL is not investing top staff here, nor did they recruit top recruits. Preacher Pat Hall looks to get a seat in the upper chamber set aside for him. Tara Mack, at the ripe old age of 29 is already looking at her 3rd term in the lower chamber. And Anna Wills is looking to take over Kurt Bils’ seat. Don’t be fooled though, as this Rosemount based district is not like the old Rosemount based district that Phil Sterner won, as it has shifted rightwards, and is likely out of reach for the DFL for the foreseeable future.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 58: Lakeville and southern Dakota County. This area is that area where the cornfields meet the housing developments. In the House, Republicans have two strong incumbents in Mary Liz Holberg, and Pat Garafolo, and they are facing token opposition. On the senate side, radio talk show host Dave Thompson will be running to replace the retiring Pat Pariseau.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

Districts 59-63. These seats are all Minneapolis, and all are going to go 80-20 DFL.

District 59: This is the north side of Minneapolis, home of Keith Ellison, and the closest thing to a majority Minority district you can get in the state. Bobby Joe Champion (he is a man, just to clarify his androgynous sounding name) will go from the house to the senate. In the House, Representative Joe Mullery has gotten a primary challenge from Marcus Harcus. He isn’t anyone of note, but I figured I should give him a hat tip due to his awesome name. There is a logjam of candidates looking to replace Champion. One BIG thing of note is Ian Alexander, who is running on the DFL side in the primary, used to be a Republican until this year, and actively campaigned against Barack Obama. Raymond Dehn got Keith Ellison’s endorsement in that primary.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 60: This district covers Northeast Minneapolis and the U of M campus (and its 51,000 students). Northeast Minneapolis is absolutely NOTHING like North Minneapolis, and there have been actual conflicts between the groups separated by the Mississippi river. Kari Dziedzic, who won the special election to replace Larry Pogemiller early this year is a shoo-in for reelection against token GOP and IP opposition. Diane Loeffler and Phyllis Khan are also going to return for another term.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 61: This is Southwest Minneapolis, which is the most affluent area in the city. Minneapolis is known as the City of Lakes, and this district holds more than its fair share, and the homes on the lakes are rather palatial. This doesn’t mean they are any more conservative than the poorer parts of the city, as this is actually every bit as Democratic as the poverty stricken 59th district. Senator Scott Dibble didn’t even get a challenger to file against him. Representatives Frank Hornstein and Paul Thissen have warm bodies to beat in November. Expect Paul Thissen to be the next Speaker of the House.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 62: This is a combination of Hipsters on the western side of the district, diverse areas in the center and south, and college students on the Northern edge. This is the most DFL district in the state. Senator Jeff Hayden garnered only an IP opponent. Representative Karen Clark is running for her 17th term in 62A, special election winner, Susan Allen, is running for her first reelection in 62B
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 63: This is South Minneapolis, running from Downtown to the Airport. Patricia Torres Ray, Jim Davnie, and Jean Wagenius are all returning for more time in St. Paul.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

Districts 64-67: This is essentially St. Paul. Again, much like in Minneapolis, all of these seats are 100% Safe DFL, and will be won by blowout margins.

District 64: This is what is known as the West Side of St. Paul. It has many different pockets of different groups, far too many to try and mention here. Senator Dick Cohen, who has been elected here since 1976, is running for yet another term. Representatives Michael Paymar, and Erin Murphy are also running again.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 65: This is Downtown St. Paul, and some surrounding areas. Sandy Pappas is running for reelection, but has a nominal primary. Freshman Rena Moran dodged the redistricting Axe, and has a practically free shot at a second term. 22-year incumbent Carlos Mariani is running for a 12th term.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 66: This was the district that had a lot of local DFLers groaning. John Marty, a staple in state politics for a long time, got drawn into a primarily St. Paul based district, when his sliver of Roseville was drawn into it. All is well that ends well, right? Marty avoided a primary, and sealed the nomination for another term in the senate. Alice Hausman and John Lesch will be reelected to their House Seats as well.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 67: This is the east side of St. Paul. There is a 3-way primary race for the DFL senate nomination. Tim Mahoney has represented the East Side since 1998 in the House, and Sheldon Johnson joined him 2 years later in the other House disdtrict.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

Overall- I feel pretty confident in most of my predictions and analysis, but there are certainly going to be developments that change any number of these races.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tally (5+ / 0-)

    The projected breakdown, including the first diary numbers.
    Senate: 34D-27R-6T
    House: 63D-57R-14T

    Keep in mind, that by deferring to incumbents (generally Republicans given the 2010 swing districts), it has kept the damages to a minimum to the Republican caucus. I wouldn't be shocked to see the DFL much higher, while I would be astonished to see the DFL lower than this.

    •  So (0+ / 0-)

      We're favored to win the State Senate and probably the House as well.

      •  Yes (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bgblcklab1, ArkDem14, KingofSpades

        I don't see a reasonable path to victory for the Republicans in the senate. In the House, they would have to sweep every competitive race to get a bare majority. It is unlikely, but not outside of the path of possibility.

        •  I was thinking redistricting ended up worse (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          OffTheHill

          for them. But I personally am expecting a bloodbath. Obama is doing pretty well in the state, Klobuchar is going to set a new record for the highest percentage vote total for a Democrat in a recent statewide election, the State Republican party is in shambles (broke and apparently disorganized), Governor Dayton seems wildly popular with voters, and the Republican legislature has terrible approval ratings.

          I expect a 40-27 Senate, and given the volatility of State House races, around a 75-59 State House.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 03:29:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  40-27 would sort of surprise me (0+ / 0-)

            Mostly because of the fact that it would require winning some very red areas. A lot of the old guard Farmer Labor districts in the farmland out west were dismantled in favor of exurban districts. It would make it really hard to come close to what we had in 2009.

            •  Rather, it would require that (0+ / 0-)

              Or a 100% clean sweep of the toss-ups, which I don't find likely

              •  They should be able to this year (0+ / 0-)

                But why were Republicans complaining about redistricting so much? You make it sound as if it gave them a bunch of new safe exurban seats and keeps them competitive in the state.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 06:39:59 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  It gave them a couple news seats (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14

                  But they are blood, blood red. Republicans wanted to dilute the second and third ring suburbs out with the exurbs, instead of making 3-4 vote sink exurban districts. This could have been MUCH worse for the DFL. The way the court did it, it really precludes Republicans from winning the senate, and puts the House at the far end of what is possible. The Republican's map the proposed, on the other hand, gives a better than 50/50 chance at Republicans winning both chambers.

                  •  With the court drawing the map (0+ / 0-)

                    I really never saw diluting the exurbs as an option, and I wonder why Republicans would bother dreaming of it.  I can barely even picture how that'd look in my head because it'd be so ugly and break-up so many cities.

    •  terrific work (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      OGGoldy

      I've bookmarked and will refer to throughout the fall.

      Obviously the DFL will be more on the ball than they were in 2010, and the various scandals/incompetence/assholeishness of the MNGOP can't help them either.

      But I expect teabagger turnout to be massive, this is their chance to vote against Obama, and regardless of the state outcome, every one of them is going to turn out so they can tell their grandchildren (as their grandchildren roll their eyes) how they fought against the muslifacisocialcommietyrant Obama back before freedom died. That should help the GOP stem some losses, and I still have the overall MN House lean GOP.

    •  Awesome! (0+ / 0-)

      That's exactly what I was looking for.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 07:48:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Welcome to District 50! (0+ / 0-)

    I was so upset in 2010 when the Republicans took our senate seat, great to hear that will not be happening again. :) I have to say I'm pretty pleased to have the district no longer straddling the Minnesota River like it did with the old 40. East Bloomington plus Richfield seems much more sensible than East Bloomington plus Burnsville.

    •  Eh, I am actually indifferent about that. (0+ / 0-)

      The one logical reasoning someone could make is the fact that the river makes a geographic border. By doing it the way the courts did it, we end up with one DFL vote sink, and one district that will never be secure for anyone.

  •  SDs-58, 66 (0+ / 0-)

    58- Pat Pariseau retired two years ago.

    66- I feel sorry for Mary Jo McGuire. She was redistricted out of her house seat 10 years ago, and this time, she lost her senate seat. I would have liked to have sen her beat Marty, whom I don't care much for, but oh well.

    Thank you again for this series. I hope you update it in late Oct.

    Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26,

    by WisJohn on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 07:57:06 AM PDT

    •  I will try and update in October (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      But at this point, I can't promise, as this is a LOT of work.

      58- Wow, I can't believe I dropped that ball. I guess I went into a time warp back to 2010 for that race. HAHA. Thompson is the incumbent. Doesn't matter, as he is safe either way.

      And Marty vs. McGuire made my stomach churn. But it could have turned out much much worse. That could have turned nasty quick.

  •  Some misses (0+ / 0-)

    36A is more red than you think, and it is Grace Baltich running, not Dittrich. Lean R.

    SD36 is a tossup. Yes, Foley had his issues, but the district is pretty even and Kruse is an incumbent.

    SD37 is a toss-up. Wolf is an incumbent and a really hard campaigner. Johnson works hard, but she has been out for a decade at this point.

    42A is very even politically, I wouldn't give an edge to anyone.

    43A is several points more Democratic than 42A. Lean D. Fischer should win the primary and general.

    SD49: Downey is weaker than you think. In 2008 he won with under 37% of the vote. In 2010 he only won by 3%. Franzen is strong. Toss-up

    Both of the house seats in 49 have to be considered toss-ups. The district is just to swingy, and unpredictably so.

    51B: Laurie Halverson is a great campaigner. Probably a toss-up.

    SD53: About even in partisan split. The B-side is quite Republican. Woodbury has Democratic parts, but on the whole still leans right. Toss-up

    SD57: This is your biggest miss. DFLer Greg Clausen has a really good shot at this senate seat. It's an ever so slightly red district, but Clausen was a very popular principal of Rosemount High School. This is closer to a toss-up than anything.

  •  My list of comments (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OGGoldy

    Jeremy Kalin retired in 2010.

    What was the situation with Leo Foley?

    I wouldn't categorize SD39 as a new district as it has a very clear predecessor.  By my calculations, only one SD was eliminated, and that's the current SD20, done in order to create the new exurban SD30.  I also would not call SD39 a Lean D seat, as McCain won the seat by .58%, and the DFL avg vote would be lower than that.  This seat has a distinctive GOP Lean and with our solid recruit, I think it can't be called anything better than Toss-Up.  39B could very well be interesting.  I also think 39B is a bit more GOP than you do, but I think that's just personal preference.

    Obama won 43A by 14.53% and it has a DFL average of 55.6%.  The DFLer is heavily favored, even against a GOPer who has their shit together.

    SD49 is much more DFL than you think.  Downey is not leaving a more Republican constituency as the Edina-based seat he is leaving was won by Obama by just over 12%.  49B is more GOP and thus that averages out to the seat he is running for being more GOP.  And the guy has only won in fluke elections, the SD still voted for Obama by 10.76%, and Downey is one of the most conservative members in the entire legislature.  And I'd think 49A is almost a gimme for the DFL considering our recruit and how DFL Edina has become.  Very, very rich, but the population is getting much older and they are extremely highly educated and hate how anti-intelligent the GOP has taken.

    And one last gripe.  SD54 doesn't lean GOP and in your own analysis, your descriptions of the two state house seats doesn't equal a state senate district that leans GOP.  54A leans our way unless it's 2010 and we have an intelligent, moderate, Iraq war veteran with no legs running against us.  54B bugs me in general because the DFL city of Hastings, yet again, get's screwed over and the seat is made just out of DFL competitive reach, which sums to Sieben having a seat that's at worst Toss-Up, but what I would consider Lean DFL in non-GOP wave years.  (Stillwater is another river city that get's screwed over a bit.)

    And I'll soon have a MN legislature analysis that you can criticize.  ;)

  •  Sen 53 (0+ / 0-)

    I was recently redistricted into Lillie's district (or, rather, we were both redistricted) and I'm surprised you consider it a lean. Woodbury never really struck me as anything other than the red side of purple, and the district is far more of Oakdale than it is Maplewood (where I live).

    That would be a huge blow to the Republicans if they lost Lillie, as they seem to view him as a rising prospect.

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