(Rachel Maddow Blog)
The Department of Labor
reported the sharpest drop in seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment benefits in 16 months Thursday. For the week ending July 21, initial claims were 353,000. That's a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. That week was originally reported at 386,000.
Changes this summer in yearly auto plant shutdowns are making it difficult for the Labor Department to adjust the data for seasonal variations. Normally, carmakers lay off workers for a few weeks in the summer to retool and those workers apply for jobless benefits during that period. But this year, because of heightened demand for cars, the manufacturers have either not shut down or done so for a shorter than usual period. In the past, the weekly claims report becomes less volatile in August, and that presents a better picture of labor market conditions.
“I’m not sure we can see a clean number for another week or two yet,” Bob Baur, chief global economist at Principal Global Investors in Des Moines, Iowa, said before the report. “I look at the labor market and see it’s gradually healing, just healing very slowly. Businesses are reluctant to do anything.”
The four-week running average of claims, which is preferred by analysts because it flattens volatility, clocked in at 367,250, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week's revised average of 376,000.
For all jobless benefit programs, including the federal government's emergency extensions for states with the highest unemployment levels, the total number of people claiming benefits for the week ending July 7 was 6,034,225, an increase of 280,405 from the previous week.