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Cross posted on my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ which has more election analysis.

In 2010, Democrats lost control of the House but retained control of the Senate. While retaining control though, they lost six seats and have a 53-47 advantage over the Republicans. Therefore, Republicans could gain three Senate seats and win control of the Senate if Romney becomes President because Romney's Vice President will cast the tiebreaking vote. Assuming Obama wins reelection which most polls suggest now, Republicans will need to gain four Senate seats in order to have 51 Senators to bypass Vice President Joe Biden's (D) tiebreaking vote.

2012 is not a good cycle for Democrats to retain control of the Senate because they have 23 seats up for reelection in 2012 while the Republicans have only 10 (before the Scott Brown (R) win in the special election in Massachusetts, the Democrats would have had 24 seats to defend in 2012.) The Democrats gained six of their Senate seats up for the 2012 election cycle in 2006 when conservatives stayed home because they had depressed enthusiasm due to the Bush Administration's failures with the Iraq War. This is 2012 though where the Republicans are more enthusiastic because of their opposition to Obama. The focus this year is more on the Presidential election too but Romney's winning the nomination is good for the downticket Republicans. The reason is that if Santorum won the nomination, social issues would go back to the spotlight and hurt the downticket Republicans because they would be associated with the very conservative views on abortion, contraception and equal rights for gays when the most important issues for the voters are the economy and jobs. Anyway though, the Democrats still have a chance to retain control of the Senate and could have an even stronger chance if the Republicans do not nominate conservatives. Now onto the rankings:

Map of Senate seats:

Photobucket

Dark blue = Safe Democratic
Blue Likely Democratic
Light Blue = Lean Democratic
Purple=Tossup
Light Red=Lean Republican
Red=Likely Republican
Dark Red/Brown=Safe Republican
Green = Safe Independent
White
no election

Safe Democratic (9 seats)

California (Dianne Feinstein): Republicans had a chance to nominate birther queen Orly Taitz (R) to run against Feinstein but they instead picked anti autism advocate Elizabeth Emken (R). Republicans could have picked worse but Feinstein is too popular, too well funded and California is too Democratic to elect a Republican.

Delaware (Tom Carper:) Only state where the Governor and the entire congressional delegation is Democratic. Carper is not losing any races anytime soon.

Maryland (Ben Cardin): This is Maryland.

Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar): Minnesota may not be as Democratic as it once was but Klobuchar is extremely popular.

New York (Kristen Gillibrand): This is New York and most polls show Gillibrand with a 20%+ lead.

Pennsylvania (Bob Casey): I debated putting this race in the Likely Democratic column but I decided to put it in the Safe Democratic one.

Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse): Whitehouse may not be residing in the White House but he will be residing in the Senate next year.

Vermont (Bernie Sanders): Another strongly Democratic seat. (note: Sanders is a registered Independent but caucuses with the Democrats so I included this race in the Safe Democratic column.)

Washington (Maria Cantwell): Republicans have a chance to win the Governorship in Washington but all polls suggest they are not winning the Senate seat.

Likely Democratic (5 seats)

Connecticut (Open-Joe Liberman): Lieberman is retiring so there is a slightly competitive race to replace him. The Democrats face a competitive primary between Congressman Peter Murphy (D) and Secretary of State Susan Byschelwitz (D). Murphy seems to have the edge in the primary and he also polls better against the Republicans than Byschelwitz does. The Republicans are former Rep. Chris Shays (R) from southwest Connecticut (he is the more moderate candidate) and Linda McMahon (R), former WWE CEO who spent around $50 million in the 2010 Senate race (she lost by 11 points.) If McMahon wins the primary (which is likely because the Republican base in Connecticut has grown more conservative,) expect Democrats to have a stronger chance here.

Michigan (Debbie Stabenow (D)): At first, this race appeared to be competitive after Michigan's sharp turn right in 2010 when the Republicans gained the Governorship and the State House. The Republicans even nominated popular Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R). The race appeared competitive until Hoekstra ran an ad that many observers viewed as racist toward Chinese people http://www.youtube.com/...
Even many Republicans criticized the ad and due to the backlash from the ad, Stabenow has led in the last four polls from 9-16 points.

New Jersey (Robert Menendez (D)): Excluding the 2009 Gubernatorial race, Republicans have not won a statewide election in New Jersey since 1997 although they usually come close. Democratic incumbents in New Jersey are usually not very popular but seem to win in the end. Menendez is facing State Senator Joe Kyrillos (R) from Morris County. If it were 2010, Menendez would probably face a tough race but New Jersey's Democratic tilt should keep Menendez out of a tough race. The RCP average has Menendez ahead by 11 points.

Ohio (Sherrod Brown (D)): About six months again, Brown seemed to be clearly in the lead but Republicans Super PACs started bombarding Ohio with ads, cutting into Brown's lead. The Republican candidate is State Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) who is young but may be too inexperienced for some voters and is extremely conservative. Brown is no moderate either and has a reputation for his liberal views but he is popular among the working class voters in eastern Ohio, a key swing group so he has a good chance to win. The RCP average has Brown ahead by 10, just enough for the race to be considered Likely Democratic.

West Virginia (Joe Manchin (D)): Former Governor Joe Manchin (D) faces a rematch with rich businessman John Raese (R). West Virginia is a traditionally Democratic state that started voting Republican for Federal offices 10 years ago. The state still votes Democratic statewide but like formerly Democratic states across the South, West Virginia may start voting Republican statewide too. Not this year though. Manchin is moderate, popular and connects with voters very well. Raese though is rich and is from Florida, not West Virginia. Manchin even won by 11 points in 2010, a horrible year for Democrats so his margin should improve in 2010. This race will stay at Likely Democratic though due to West Virginia's Republican trend but is close to Safe Democratic.

Lean Democratic (3 seats)

Florida (Bill Nelson (D)): Since he was elected in 2000, Nelson has maintained high approval ratings for his moderate views and likability. Republicans however have fielded  Rep. Connie Mack IV (R), part of the Mack line who has owned baseball teams and represented Florida in the Senate. He originally declined to run but decided half a year later to run because he thought no other candidate could beat Nelson. Six months ago, the race was tied but Nelson seems to have regained the lead (the last PPP poll showed him up by 5,) after negative revelations about Mack's financial issues, including homestead taxes. Also, Mack is not personally popular (Nelson is,) which is hurting Mack. Nelson also raised $1.8 million last quarter, a strong haul but he may need a bit more for the 4th most populous state. Mack has been fundraising poorly but the Super PACs are strongly supporting him, erasing Nelson's money advantage. To win, Nelson needs to make inroads in the rural areas and the I-4 Corridor (which he has done in past elections,) but he may need to rely more on the I-4 Corridor because the rural areas are trending away from the Democrats.

Hawaii (Open Daniel Akaka (D)): I debated placing this race in the Tossup or Lean D status but I chose Lean D because of Hawaii's Democratic nature and favorite son Obama's presence on the ticket. Also, Republicans have done well in Hawaii previously because many voters in Hawaii traditionally support the incumbent (explaining why Bush performed well in Hawaii in 2004,) but this is an open race without an incumbent. This race pits Rep. Mazie Hirono (D) against former Gov. Linda Lingle (R) against each other in a rematch of the 2002 Gubernatorial race where Hirono lost by 5. Hirono however faces a primary challenge from former Rep. Ed Case (D). He is famous for playing spoiler in the 2010 Hawaii CD 1 special election where he took votes from Colleen Hanabusa (D) so Charles Djou (R) snuck by and won (Hanabusa won the seat in November though.) Most polls show Hirono with a slight lead though over Case. She also led by 5 in the last poll against Lingle (she polls better against Lingle than Case does.)

New Mexico (Open Jeff Bingaman (D)): This race pits two moderate representatives from Albuquerque against each other (Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) and former Rep. Heather Wilson (R).) Recently, the Sierra club who is backing Heinrich has been launching an ad blitz attacking Wilson for conservative environmental positions. It seems to be working because the most recent poll showed Heinrich up by 9, the largest lead he has enjoyed since April.

Tossup (8 seats)

Indiana (Open Richard Lugar (R)): This race is difficult to classify because no polls have been released for this race since late March (a Howey/DePauw poll showed the race tied,) but a close race is likely, even for Republican leaning Indiana. The Republican Legislature gave Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) a Republican leaning seat after redistricting which urged Donnelly to run for Senate (if Donnelly wins, Republican candidate and State Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) is not going to be happy with the legislature.) Mourdock defeated 36 year incumbent Lugar in a primary by claiming Lugar was not conservative enough for Indiana (Democrats may win though because Mourdock may be too conservative for Indiana.) To win, Donnelly needs to convince the voters that is the case. He also needs to perform well in not only Indianapolis and the Chicago suburbs but also win a big margin out of St. Joseph County (South Bend,) which is in his district and hit 40%+ in heavily Republican Elkhart County which is also in his district. Donnelly's strong campaign skills (he survived 2010,) and moderate views should help him though. He is running a centrist campaign but needs some help from Obama's campaign because the Obama campaign should be able to turn out base voters who vote sporadically.

Massachusetts (Scott Brown (R)): If any race this cycle takes the prize for the most competitive and exciting, it will be this one. Brown seemed to be invincible after winning Ted Kennedy's (D) former Senate seat in this heavily Democratic state in a 2010 Special Election. High profile Democrats such as Vicki Kennedy (Ted Kennedy's wife,) declined to run but Elizabeth Warren (D), Obama's nominee for the Consumer Protection Bureau decided to run. Her fundraising has been strong, she has raised $24.5 million so far, making her the 15th most successful fundraiser in Senate history and outraised Brown's $19.9 million. For Brown to win, he needs to win more than 2/3rds of the Independents because he won in 2010 by winning Independents in the Boston exurbs while underperforming in the college towns and Boston proper (but Obama should increase turnout in those areas and some colleges were not in session in the 2010 Special election.) In the end, I believe Warren should win by around 3-5 points as the turnout should be higher in the Democratic areas and her message could resonate with the traditionally Democratic suburban voters who supported Brown (Brown's last opponent Martha Coakley (D) was portrayed as out of touch but Warren is doing everything possible to appear in touch with the middle class.)

Missouri (Claire McCaskill (D)): I am worried about McCaskill's chances here. Missouri has been trending away from the Democrats recently; it was one of the few battleground states Obama lost in 2008. McCaskill won in 2006 by making inroads in rural areas but the rural areas have been trending far right recently (longtime Rep. Ike Skelton (D) from the rural areas recently lost his reelection race.) Also, Republicans face a tight primary with Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) receiving Sarah Palin's endorsement and leading in the last three polls. Her extremely conservative views may hinder her but she should probably beat McCaskill by a few points.

Montana (Jon Tester (D)): Rep. Danny Rehberg (R) is challenging Tester, a popular incumbent with strong campaign skills (who can forget his haircut ad: http://www.youtube.com/...) and his new ad with a similar Montana theme (http://www.youtube.com/....) Rehberg however is well known and popular throughout this Republican leaning state, making it more difficult. Also, Tester will have to rely on split ticket voters because Montana is expected to vote Republican in the Presidential election. He also won by only 3,000 votes in 2006, a Democratic year against incumbent Conrad Burns (R) who was involved in the Abramoff. Tester however has kept a strong relationship with his constituents so I expect Tester to win by 2 points but this race could shift, it is still very close.

Nevada (Dean Heller (R)): This is another chance for a Democratic pickup as Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) from Las Vegas challenges appointed Senator Heller, a former Representative from the northern part of the state. Heller was appointed after former Sen. John Ensign (R) resigned after an affair.  Berkley however has some ethics issues involving her husband's kidney transplant center. This does not seem to have affected her poll numbers. She is down by 3 points in most polls but polls in Nevada frequently understate Democratic strength due to the impressive Democratic GOTV operation. In the 2010 Senate race, all polls showed Harry Reid (D) down by 4 but he won by 5. Berkley is not taking any chances though.  Recently Berkley is making a wise campaign move by campaigning heavily in Reno because voters there are unfamiliar with her. She does not want to repeat the 2006 gubernatorial race where Dina Titus (D), a Las Vegas centric candidate over performed in Vegas but lost because she underperformed in Reno. Heavy turnout in Las Vegas should help Berkley (Obama will be targeting Clark County too due to the large base there,) but unless she can win Clark County by more than 10 points, she needs to make inroads in Heller's base. Also, Hispanics are expected to turn out strongly for the Democrats so Berkley will receive help there. A personal anecdote was that I was calling some Nevada voters in late July for Obama and Berkley. I talked to a few Romney supporters but many of them were undecided on the Berkley/Heller race and Heller did not seem to be personally popular with many of the voters. This suggests that Berkley may be winning over some conservatives and is underperforming in the polls (also, no voters I spoke to mentioned anything relating to her ethics.)

North Dakota (Open Kent Conrad (D)): At first, this seat seemed to be an easy Republican pickup for Rep. Rick Berg (R). This race has narrowed after former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) announced her candidacy. A poll showed her ahead by 6 while showing Obama losing by 20. Many North Dakotans vote for the person, not the party and Berg is not very personally popular which works in Hentkamp's favor. North Dakota is a very Republican state though but they have ticket split for Senatorial candidates in the past so Heitkamp still has a great chance to win.

Virginia (Open Jim Webb (D)): This race pits two former Governors against each other, Tim Kaine (D) and George Allen (R). Most polls show this race to be extremely close although Kaine seems to have gained a slight edge. A Rasmussen poll (a Republican leaning polling firm,) with a likely voter model showed a dead heat between the two. Also, Allen may face some backlash from the racial slur “macaca” he said to a campaign worker for Jim Webb while complaining that the campaign worker would catch any gaffes he made. Also, another hopeful sign for Kaine is that Obama barely leads in Virginia and while there are many Romney-Kaine voters (a recent New York Times article showed how many southwest Virginians were ticket splitting,) but there were almost no Obama-Allen voters. For Kaine to win, he has to perform well in Northern Virginia, winning with 60%+ in Fairfax County and carrying bellwether Loudon County. Also, high African American turnout in the Hampton Roads/Richmond area should help Kaine too. Kaine and Allen are both well known so most voters have chosen a side so the candidates have to focus on turning out their voters.
Wisconsin (Open Herb Kohl (D)): Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) from Madison is running for the seat with an easy path to the nomination but the Republicans have a competitive primary. Former Governor Tommy Thompson (R) has a slight lead ahead of Baldwin in most polls but a recent PPP poll showed businessman Eric Hovde (R) in a close race for the nomination after Hovde released a barrage of attack ads on Thompson. This would help Baldwin because she performs better against Hovde in the polls. As for Baldwin, she is popular with the netroots and the Daily Kos crowd so she should no trouble raising money but she needs to appeal to the rural moderates of western Wisconsin. The 2012 Gubernatorial recall results showed that Democrats cannot win simply by having high turnout in Milwaukee and Madison, they have to win rural areas too. If Baldwin can do that, she has a strong chance at winning but Thompson seems to have a slight edge currently.

Lean Republican (1 seat)

Arizona (Open Jon Kyl (R)): Democrats seemed to have found a strong candidate here in former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D). He served under George W. Bush and was a registered Independent until recently. The Republican candidate is Rep. Jeff Flake (R)-Mesa who is facing a primary challenge from the right but after receiving Palin’s endorsement, Flake seems to be on track to win the nomination. Carmona’s Hispanic background could help appeal to Arizona’s large Hispanic population or not because Carmona is Puerto Rican while most of Arizona’s Hispanics are Mexican and Carmona grew up in Harlem, not Arizona. There does not seem to be strong animosity between Puerto Ricans and Mexicans so Carmona’s background should help a bit however. Besides Rasmussen, most polls show Flake with a 2-4 point lead and Arizona’s Republican lean may be too strong for Carmona. This is still a race to watch though.

Likely Republican (1 seat)

Nebraska (Open Ben Nelson (D)): Conservative Democrat Ben Nelson has retired and Democrats found former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D), their best candidate to retake this seat. Kerrey was once very popular in Nebraska but since his Senate retirement, Kerrey has been President of Eugene Lang College in New York City, hurting his Nebraska roots. Also, polls have shown the Republican candidate Debbie Fischer (R) with a 10-18 point lead, suggesting this will be a Republican pickup.

Safe Republican: (5 seats)

Mississippi (Roger Wicker (R)): An easy win for Republicans in the heavily Republican state of Mississippi.

Tennessee (Bob Corker (R)): Corker faced a tough race in 2006 against Harold Ford (D) but Corker is now extremely popular and Tennessee has become more Republican.

Texas (Open Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R)): Democrats fielded a strong candidate in this race but he dropped out so Republicans will have a clear shot. The question now is whether Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst (R) will beat tea party backed Ted Cruz (R) in the runoff for Senate.

Utah (Orrin Hatch (R)): Hatch is going nowhere in the extremely Republican state of Utah.

Wyoming (John Barrasso (R)): This is Wyoming.

Safe Independent: (1 seat)
Maine (Open Olympia Snowe (R)): Moderate Republican Snowe is retiring (who can blame her? She was a swing vote in the Senate and felt pressure from both parties.) This race seemed to be a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats until former Governor Angus King (I) threw his hat in the ring and polls show him ahead 20%+. He has not announced which party he will caucus with but his liberal leaning views such as his support for Obamacare and marriage equality suggest he may caucus with the Democrats. He also endorsed John Kerry for President in 2004 as well as endorsing Obama in both 2008 and 2012.  

Overall, the ratings suggest that although Republicans could gain a few seats, it will probably not be enough to win the Senate. The Republicans will probably win Nebraska and five tossup seats are held by Democrats. Assuming Republicans win the Republican leaning tossups Missouri and Wisconsin, they have +3 seats which is not enough for a majority (this is assuming Democrats do not pickup any of the Republican held seats in Indiana, Massachusetts and Nevada,) so the Republicans will have to win both Montana and North Dakota to offset possible Democratic gains (Republicans should win one of those.) Overall, the current situation suggests Republicans +3, assuming the Democrats win one of the Republican tossups. If King decides to caucus with the Democrats, Republicans may end up only gaining one seat.

Poll

How many seats will the Republicans win?

16%24 votes
20%30 votes
19%28 votes
15%22 votes
12%18 votes
7%11 votes
7%11 votes

| 144 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

    by Alibguy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 09:41:31 AM PDT

  •  NM will go blue again (5+ / 0-)

    Heinrich's leads are slim but consistent, and I think with Mitt carrying on the way he is that Obama coattails will be substantial.   Not that Wilson is negligible as an opponent.  

    "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

    by lgmcp on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 09:46:09 AM PDT

  •  Tilt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    Tilt D
    FL (Nelson)
    MA (Brown)
    VA (OPEN)
    WI (OPEN)

    Tilt R
    NV (Heller)
    MO (McCaskill)
    MT (Tester)
    ND (OPEN)

    Lean D
    OH (Brown)
    NM (OPEN)
    CT (OPEN)

    Lean R
    AZ (OPEN)
    IN (OPEN)

    Likely D
    NJ (Menendez)
    WA (Cantwell)
    PA (Casey)
    WV (Manchin)
    MI (Stabenow)
    ME (OPEN)*
    HI (OPEN)

    Likely R
    NE (OPEN)

    Solid D
    CA (Feinstein)
    DE (Carper)
    MD (Cardin)
    MN (Klobuchar)
    NY (Gillibrand)
    RI (Whitehouse)
    VT (Sanders)

    Solid R
    MS (Wicker)
    TN (Corker)
    WY (Barrasso)
    UT (Hatch)
    TX (OPEN)

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:11:28 AM PDT

    •  I think MT is Tilt D (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      given recent polling and the quality of Tester's campaign.  And I wouldn't say ND and NV tilt either way.

      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

      by James Allen on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:18:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think so too (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Montana seems to be tilting slightly in Tester's direction but it's not in the lean D realm...yet.

        NV and ND probably should be in the pure tossup category. If the polls keep improving for Baldwin, that should no longer be tilt R and go into the pure tossup area.

        I do think the Democrats' Senatorial prospects are better than they were a few months ago.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

        by Alibguy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:29:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't like being on the fence (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But if you want to go with total tossup I think you can add VA, WI and MA to ND and NV.

        I feel strongly that the presidential race in each state will play a large part in all these races hence the MT rank.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:33:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm skeptical about that given ND and MT's (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          histories of ticket splitting, and Montana's recent blueness in senate and gubernatorial races even more so there.  I also don't like calling many tossups, but given how ND has a significant R lean, and Nevada a slight D lean, with Heller up slightly in polls, and Heitkamp up by mid single digits in many polls, it's hard for me to form a hard opinion that either of those states will either fall in line with their lean or go against them.  I just don't see enough evidence to take a stand.  Given Obama's strength in Virginia and the likelihood of Kaine outperforming Obama among whites, I don't see that as a tossup.  Wisconsin depends a lot on the R primary; you might be able to call it a tossup now but after the primary it will lean one way or another.

          Massachusetts... well, I just don't think its possible for a Republican to win a statewide partisan federal office in that state that's on the same ballot as the vote for president.  A special election in January of an off year, sure.  Not a presidential election.  No matter how close it may be, I don't see it happening.

          Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

          by James Allen on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 01:07:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I hope you're right. It's tough to tell given (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Alibguy

        Rasmussen's meddling in that race.  It kind of depends on how Tester deals with the entitlement issue and also the affordable care act, which I believe he voted for (or at least cleared the way for passage).  If he defends it strongly and goes after the GOP candidate hard on the Ryan plan issue, he can win. It was very close last time so I expect if Tester wins the count will go late into the night.  If Rehberg wins, he'll probably win by 6-8 points.

        Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

        by khyber900 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:45:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I'm increasingly thinking... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Republicans pick up seats in Nebraska and Missouri, but lose seats in Nevada, Massachusetts, Indiana, and Arizona.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:12:35 AM PDT

  •  In Hawaii and Connecticut (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, bfen

    the governor and entire congressional delegation are Democratic, as is the case in Delaware.

    Honorable mention to Vermont and Rhode Island, where all such officials are at least not Republicans (since Lincoln Chafee's departure from the GOP and gubernatorial victory as an Independent, and probably the most liberal of the three candidates.)

    36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:13:05 AM PDT

  •  With WI, it depends on the GOP primary (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lgmcp, WisJohn, MichaelNY, davehouck

    Tommy Thompson has the name recognition and crossover votes, yet Hovde has the slick ad campaign right out of Ron Johnson's playbook-and lots and lots of money. The best case scenario is for doom  and gloom Mark Neumann to win,  and then  I would predict a solid Tammy Baldwin victory. Baldwin is running some very effective ads.

    "The problem with quotes on the internet is you can never be certain they're authentic." - Abraham Lincoln

    by realwischeese on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:16:34 AM PDT

  •  nice job (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alibguy, MichaelNY

    The one rating I really disagree with is lean D for Hawaii. The state has never been competitive at the national level and this race is likely D at worst.

    MI: Hoekstra would have been a clear underdog in any case. Social conservatives from west MI almost never beat non-toxic Dems in statewide races.

    CT: I think it's Chris Murphy and Susan Bysiewicz.

    I went with -1 for your poll. I think the GOP flips NE, MO (with Brunner), and WI (with Thompson) and Dems flip ME, MA, NV, and IN.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:26:11 AM PDT

    •  I hope that's the case with the senate (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, MichaelNY

      It would be great to come out of this cycle with an extra seat because I'm worried about 2014 when we have more tossup seats up.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:32:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The way I look at this map (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alibguy, MichaelNY

    is that the GOP needs a net +3 to share control of the Senate.

    They have the inside track on the Montana and Missouri seats.

    We have the inside track on Maine.  That would only give the GOP a +1 advantage.

    The rest are tossups.  

    Dems have takeover opportunities in Massachusetts, Indiana Nevada.

    GOP have takeover opportunities in Virginia, North Dakota, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Florida.

    If the Dems win 1 of the 2 takeover opportunities, the GOP would need to win 3 of its 5 takeover opportunities to win the Senate.

    Right now, if I were to guess, I think Kaine and Nelson will win their races because of experience and the ability to win moderate voters. They will also benefit from heavy Obama campaign presence and investment.  New Mexico will also stay blue.  

    ND is a true toss-up.  It looks like the Dems have the better candidate but the GOP has the big registration advantage.  That said, protection of entitlements will be a big issue in ND and Heitkamp can win on that issue.  

    Wisconsin is another true toss-up.  Baldwin is competitive with all GOP nominees.  If the teabagger wins the primary, I think Baldwin is a slight favorite. If Thompson wins, Baldwin is a slight underdog. However, Thompson might be the easier candidate to beat because Baldwin can run against his record and contrast new v. old etc.  

    I also think that Warren will win her race with Brown, though Brown seems to be fairly popular in the state.  The registration advantage and some of Brown's votes will eventually cost him.  

    Indiana should be a winnable seat for the Dems, but not sure that without Obama driving base Dem voters out that Donnelly's middle of the road campaign can win in that state.  Mourdock is a moron but most Indiana voters have a high tolerance for stupidity.  Donnelly is clearly the better candidate; he is more like Evan Bayh.  If Indiana rejects Mourdock and votes for Donnelly, it will be a clear sign of maturity on that state's part, but also a rejection of teabaggerism as a viable ideology in the US.  

    Nevada is also a winnable seat with the heavy Obama investment and registration advantage, but Berkeley seems mired against Heller in a defensive position.  She needs to show something more.

    The way I see it then is that Dems will win 2 GOP seats (I'm assuming Angus King caucuses with Dems) and the GOP will win 3 Dem seats (MT, MO, WI).  Overall, GOP net +1, not enough for a takeover.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:36:06 AM PDT

    •  oops.. Forgot Nebraska. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Alibguy, MichaelNY

      Man this is a tough year for Dems in the Senate!!.  GOP +2, not enough for a take over.  However, Dems could even this by winning the ND and Wisconsin seats, where they really do have a legit shot.  If Berkeley turns things around, she could also pull off a slight upset.

      Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

      by khyber900 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:40:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have a good feeling about the Berkley race (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, davehouck

        It is a tough year for us though but I agree, we should probably prevent a takeover.

        My phonebanking in Nevada for her was good, many voters dislike Heller personally and many Romney voters said they were undecided on the race. I also found a few undecided Obama-Romney voters who were strong Berkley supporters too. This was mostly in Clark County though so she may not win if Heller has an extremely large Reno and Cow Counties advantage.

        Also, Nevada polls do understate Democratic support and OFA should bring voters to the polls.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

        by Alibguy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:44:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obama will deliver the Clark county voters. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          She has to go out to Reno and win that region.

          Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

          by khyber900 on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 10:51:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I've heard (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, MichaelNY

            She's been spending lots of time there which is pretty important. In 2006, Dina Titus who was based in the Las Vegas area performed well there but did not do well enough in the Reno area so she lost. She needed to intorduce herself to Reno voters but it looks like Berkley will not repeat the same mistake.

            For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

            by Alibguy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 11:31:18 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Disagree on a few (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, davehouck

    SAFE DEMOCRATIC
    California
    Delaware
    Maryland
    Minnesota
    New York  
    Rhode Island
    Vermont
    Washington
    MAINE +1 - D+1
    King is going to win, and he'll caucus with whoever gives him the most power - he'd be a fool to caucus with the minority.

    LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
    Pennsylvania
    I put this in the likely D column.

    Connecticut
    Michigan
    New Jersey
    Ohio
    West Virginia

    LEAN DEMOCRATIC

    Florida
    Hawaii
    New Mexico
    Massachusetts  +1 - D+2
    Virginia - in a Presidential year, I can't see how Kaine manages to lose

    TOSS-UP (we'll give all toss-ups to the Republicans, giving us our worst-case scnerio at the end)
    Indiana  
    Montana -1 - D+1
    North Dakota -1 - D=EVEN

    LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Missouri  D-1 - D -1
    I'm across the border in KS, and McCaskill is just unpopular.
    Wisconsin D-1 - D -2
    Nevada
    Arizona

    LIKELY REPUBLICAN
    Nebraska D-1 - D -3

    SAFE REPUBLICAN

    Mississippi
    Tennessee
    Texas
    Utah
    Wyoming

    OUR TOTAL:
    Worst case scenerio:  D-3 = 50/50 Senate

    RACES TO WATCH:
    North Dakota - can put us over the top to 51, which w/out Lieberman and Nelson, is as good as our current 53
    Montana - if Tester can pull this off, no way the Rs take the Senate
    Indiana - gets us back to 53

    The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. --George Orwell

    by jgkojak on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 11:17:38 AM PDT

    •  I feel good about Virginia and Massachusetts too (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'll probably move them to Lean D soon if current trends with those races continue.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 11:29:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Just don't see in a Presidential year (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        how Mass. goes for Brown
        and even in Virginia, retreads (Allen) usually don't do well.

        I like what I'm seeing in North Dakota.

        The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. --George Orwell

        by jgkojak on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 01:25:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not accurate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera
      51, which w/out Lieberman and Nelson, is as good as our current 53
      To take one salient example, Lieberman and Nelson were indispensable for passage of the Affordable Care Act. 2 Republicans would have voted against it. Every Democratic vote counts for a lot, in today's Senate environment.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 04:18:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm going to predict the winners in each race (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    GOP-held:

    MA - Warren (D)
    NV - Berkley (D)
    ME - King (I)
    AZ - Flake (R)
    IN - Mourdock (R)  

    Dem-held:

    NE - Fischer (R)
    MT - Tester (D)
    MO - Steelman (R)
    ND - Heitkamp (D)
    WI - Baldwin (D)
    VA - Kaine (D)

    and everything else below those races stays the same.

    Result: D 52 R 46 I 2

    So Democrats will actually gain a seat.

  •  you don't have a +0 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alibguy, MichaelNY

    which is what my vote is...I think we'll be exactly where we are now

    "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

    by JackND on Mon Jul 30, 2012 at 02:05:53 PM PDT

  •  One correction (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, wu ming, Alibguy

    Bob Kerrey was the president of the New School, not Eugene Lang College. Eugene Lang College is actually a college within the New School. Kerrey was president of the entire university.

    I know it's a minor correction--I just point it out because Mannes College, the New School for Music, is my alma mater to be! :)

  •  Wow, so down on Carmona (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I think he definitely has a better chance of winning in AZ than Donnelly does in IN or McCaskill in MO.

    He is just doing everything right, where as McCaskill isn't polling well, and Donnelly's ads are pretty weak.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

    by Daman09 on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 08:18:28 PM PDT

    •  I wrote this post (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Before I saw the recent poll showing a tied race. That poll could bring the Arizona race into the tossup column.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Thu Aug 02, 2012 at 09:21:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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