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Leading Off:

Polls: Today's digest seems to be filled with polls. Scroll down to see numbers for a ton of races, including (deep breath): AZ-Sen, CT-Sen, MO-Sen, WI-Sen, CA-03, CA-52, MD-06, NC-07, NY-01, NY-19 (x2), UT-04, and, for good measure, the San Diego mayor's race. Phew! Have at it!


AZ-Sen: PPP's new poll on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters has the most positive results to date for Democrat Richard Carmona, who ties with GOP Rep. Jeff Flake at 38 apiece. That's not too different from an early June PPP poll for a different client (Project New America) which had Flake leading 43-41, though prior PPP surveys showed a much wider margin for the Republican. The proportion of undecideds (25%) certainly raises an eyebrow, though, but the presidential toplines make sense (Romney's up 52-41). PPP either didn't ask about Flake's primary rival, Wil Cardon, or those numbers simply weren't released.

Meanwhile, Flake tries to push back in this new ad against attacks from Cardon that he's not really a conservative by saying that he's really a conservative. Really.

CT-Sen: PPP's new Connecticut poll is out, and they find Dem Rep. Chris Murphy leading GOP businesswoman Linda McMahon 50-42, a darn sight better than that early June poll from Quinnipiac which had Murphy up just three. Click through for our full analysis and all the numbers (including primary results).

IN-Sen: While Democrats everywhere were hoping that Sen. Dick Lugar would bury the hatchet deep in Richard Mourdock's neck, alas, he's chosen the more traditional location. Lugar's had nothing but unkind remarks for the man who beat him in the GOP primary for months (dating back before his defeat); he even unloaded on him in prepared remarks after his loss. But I guess Lugar's somehow gotten over it, because he went out of his way to introduce Mourdock to his fellow Republican Senators at a lunch gathering on Tuesday. I will say that the gag-inducing quotes the two men offered on each other's behalf are a wonderful attempt at re-writing recent history.

MO-Sen: I managed to miss that there was a GOP primary portion to that new Mason-Dixon poll of the Missouri Senate race which dropped over the weekend. They see a two-race race between John Brunner, who's at 33, and Sarah Steelman, not far off the pace at 27. Todd Akin is far back at 17. According to RCP, this is the first public survey of the Republican contest conducted by anyone other than PPP, and it's also the first time Brunner's ever led. Given his huge spending, that's not so surprising, but apparently the attacks designed to take him down (and bolster Akin, Dems' preferred opponent) haven't quite worked.

On a different track entirely, here's a story very much worth reading: Roll Call's Janie Lorber takes a close look at the personal financial disclosure forms filed by Brunner, who may have a net worth of as much as $87 million and who owns, among other things, "a private aircraft and bank accounts based in Bermuda and the Cayman Islands." Lorber doesn't directly make the comparison, but it feels like Brunner may suffer from a bit of a Mitt Romney problem, seeing as among his assets are things like a recently dissolved investment account with a Bermuda firm valued at up to $5 million. As one tax law professor quoted in the piece asks, "Why does a candidate for Congress want his or her money not in the U.S.?"

And finally, in an ad that's a lot less crazy than the weird wingnut word salad he served up a day earlier, GOP Rep. Todd Akin features a supporter thanking him for helping to improve the armor on military vehicles, which she says saved her husband's life.

NM-Sen: Here's that new DSCC ad we mentioned in the previous Digest, which is reportedly backed by a $150K buy. Most third-party attacks on GOPer Heather Wilson so far have focused on her environmental record; this spot goes after Wilson for voting "to protect special tax breaks" for companies which ship jobs overseas.

NV-Sen: GOP Sen. Dean Heller tries to accuse Dem Rep. Shelley Berkley of taking credit "for legislation she didn't even write" in his newest ad. The announcer also invokes PolitiFact, calling Berkley's repeated attacks on Heller's vote to end Medicare the "lie of the year." Expect to see a lot of that this cycle.

WI-Sen: We Ask America, the polling arm of the Illinois Manufacturers' Association, has some numbers out on the Wisconsin Senate GOP primary. (In their maddening style, they still insist on going down to hundredths of a percent. Guys, this isn't a joke.) They see Eric Hovde and Tommy Thompson tied at 23, with Mark Neumann at a not-implausible-for-him-to-win 17 and Jeff Fitzgerald at 12. The primary is fast approaching on August 14.


CA-Gov: Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is sort of a west coast Cory Booker: He's been talked about for higher office since forever, so I'm not even sure whether this quote from him really qualifies as news or not. But to no surprises, Villaraigosa, a Democrat, says: "The job I've said to people I would like is I would like to be governor of the state of California." Thing is, he's not that young: At 59, you have to wonder whether he'd think about trying to take Gov. Jerry Brown out in a primary in 2014, or if he has the patience to wait until Brown is term-limited in 2018.


CA-03: Here's another DCCC IVR poll, this time showing Dem Rep. John Garamendi with a sizable 52-37 lead over Colusa County Supervisor Kim Dolbow Vann. Don't feel too bad for those poor, overworked D-Trip autodialers, though: Like all of their other recent robo-surveys, this one was only in the field for a single day. That's a practice I can't really condone (for reasons Nate Silver capably explained here); the most prominent firm that relies on one-day samples is, after all, Rasmussen.

CA-52: We at Daily Kos Elections got a lot more optimistic about the race in this swingy San Diego-area seat when we saw the results from California's top 2 primary, where the Dem vote totals were on a par with the GOP vote totals despite the primary's Republican-leaning electorate when compared with November. And now a poll from the Dem to emerge from that primary, San Diego port commissioner Scott Peters, shows similarly competitive results; he's tied 40-40 with Republican incumbent Rep. Brian Bilbray. According to the pollster, Grove Insight, Bilbray also has a 41-30 favorability rating but a negative 40-44 job approval score. Peters, presumably, is still largely unknown, though that will change once the air wars heat up. (David Jarman)

CT-05: Well, here we go. EMILY's List finally filed an independent expenditure report for those mailers attacking Democrat Chris Donovan. To all Connecticut readers, if you live in the district and happen to get your hands on a copy, please scan it in or photograph it so that we can see exactly what EMILY is up to. Remember, just days ago, their spokeswoman said:

"No mail has been sent, and no Republican talking points have been used...."
Claim #1 is now proven bullshit. Let's see if they had the guts to stick with their plans to go after Donovan as a "tax hiker"... or if claim #2 winds up being bullshit as well.

FL-16: Ethically troubled GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan was supposed to testify under oath at a deposition on Monday in a lawsuit involving his former business partner regarding alleged illegal campaign contributions... but he was a no-show, even though he was ordered to attend by the judge hearing the case. Pathetically, ol' Vern claims that his attorney got ill, but no one as giga-wealthy as Buchanan (worth nine figures!) has only one lawyer. Democratic state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald, who is challenging the incumbent, seems pretty convinced that Buchanan skipped out to attend a fundraiser in another part of the state. Buchanan's ex-partner is also fuming, and though this will never happen, it's hilarious to imagine: he wants to "seek criminal sanctions against Buchanan and ask a judge to put him in jail for contempt for not showing up." We can dream!

FL-26: EMILY's List has given its full endorsement to businesswoman Gloria Romero Roses, who faces 2010 nominee Joe Garcia in the Democratic primary. There isn't a lot of time left to make a difference, though: Election day is August 14.

IA-04: Looks like the House Majority PAC and its union allies are extending their TV ad buy on behalf of Democrat Christie Vilsack: SEIU COPE is tossing in another $46K is contributing another $29K. No word yet on whether AFSCME will stick with this co-op for the new re-up.

KY-04: Weird: Republican Rep. Geoff Davis, who surprisingly decided to retire earlier this year, just decided to up and quit altogether, announcing his resignation from Congress on Tuesday, effective immediately. Davis's likely successor in this very red district was already chosen in a primary earlier this year (former Lewis County Judge-Executive Thomas Massie)—much to the chagrin of the local GOP establishment which didn't care for his libertarian leanings nor the outside groups which helped power him to victory. It seems likely that any special election would be consolidated with the regular November election, but of course, we'll stay on top of this story and bring you any developments.

MD-06: Hmm. I don't think I would have released this poll were I the House Majority PAC. Their new survey of Maryland's redrawn 6th Congressional District (courtesy GQR) features Democrat John Delaney up just 44-42 over GOP Rep. Roscoe Bartlett. Given how blue the revised seat is, though, and given most prognosticators' expectations that Delaney should win here, those numbers, while not good for the incumbent, aren't exactly imposing for the challenger. It also stands in contrast to an April poll from GHY released by Delaney's own campaign that had him beating Bartlett 48-39.

MN-08: Even though Rick Nolan left Congress in 1981, for local Democrats, it seems like he was merely waiting in stasis all these years. After cleaning up among party activists at local nominating contests and then the district-wide convention, Nolan's now cemented his position as the establishment choice with an endorsement from Gov. Mark Dayton. That hasn't translated into much fundraising success, though, and Nolan still faces a better-funded opponent in ex-state Sen. Tarryl Clark in the August primary. (Duluth City Council President Jeff Anderson is also in the mix.)

Speaking of Clark, EMILY's List is determined to get her over the line, with a new expenditure of about $12K on mailers. Note that EMILY's lit includes some negative attacks on Nolan, but we haven't seen a copy of the mailer, so it's not clear what exactly they're going after him on.

MI-11: The Republican primary to replace ex-Rep. Thad McCotter—which Dana Houle rightly called "unhandicappable"—resembles what I imagine a jello wrestling match between Helmut Kohl and Yahoo Serious would look like: plug-ugly and really pathetic. And it just got plug-uglier: Ex-state Sen. Nancy Cassis, who is waging a write-in bid, says she won't support teacher Kerry Bentivolio (the only guy actually on the ballot) if he wins the GOP nomination next week. Cassis is a dull, albeit mainstream, Republican; Bentivolio is a Paulist outsider who has done a good job offending establishment sensibilities. I look forward to watching this race reach its denouement.

NC-07: Tactical question of the day: When your opponent commits the unforced error of putting out an internal poll that still shows him behind, do you let that speak for itself or do you respond? It probably depends on what your own latest poll says, and I suppose Democrats figured, if you've got it, flaunt it. A day after Republican opponent David Rouzer put out a poll showing McIntyre winning by only 4 points, the DCCC rolled out a poll taken on their behalf by Grove Insight that shows McIntyre leading by a gaudy 53-34. That seems a little optimistic to me, but at the same time, that ought to leave a few prognosticators wondering what they're doing with this race (recast by a GOP gerrymander) in the "Lean R" column. (David Jarman)

NY-01: Here's a nice sketchball poll you shouldn't believe. First off, it's from Pulse Opinion Research. Commit that name to memory if you haven't already done so because that's Rasmussen's for-hire arm—any bozo can plunk down some cash and have access to Raz's award-winning polling infrastructure. Second (and probably on account of this), it has Mitt Romney beating Barack Obama by a comical 54-40 margin in New York's 1st Congressional District, a seat that went 51-48 for the president in 2008.

So bear all that in mind when you see the topline results, which feature the poll's sponsor, Republican Randy Altschuler, leading Dem Rep. Tim Bishop 47-43. Obviously this is pushback against a recent House Majority PAC survey which showed Bishop up by a hefty 56-32 spread. While I wouldn't expect Bishop to win by 24 points, I could believe that he's in the mid-50s. I definitely don't believe he's in the mid-40s.

NY-19: The season of dueling internals is upon us. Early on Tuesday, freshman GOP Rep. Chris Gibson blasted around a poll from Public Opinion Strategies that showed him up 53-36 over Democrat Julian Schreibman. Later in the day, Schreibman responded with his own survey from the Global Strategy Group that had the race a much closer 42-32 in Gibson's favor. Schreibman's memo also points out that many voters don't even know the putative incumbent, given that Gibson currently represents less than half of the redrawn district's constituents.

NY-22: GOP freshman Richard Hanna continues to go far, far off-message, but with November's election looming, it's probably the smart call. Check out some of his quotes from this new interview:

"I have to say that I'm frustrated by how much we—I mean the Republican Party—are willing to give deferential treatment to our extremes in this moment in history," he told The Post-Standard editorial board. [...]

While he blamed the dysfunction on both sides, he said he feels more bitterness coming from the Republican caucus than from the Democrats.

"I would say that the friends I have in the Democratic Party I find ... much more congenial—a little less anger," he said.

I really do get the sense that Hanna would be more comfortable as a Democrat, in light of both these statements and some remarks he made back in March, sincerely encouraging women to donate to Dems because "[s]o many of your rights are under assault." Switching parties would also insulate him from any worries about getting teabagged to death some day in a GOP primary.

OH-14: On Tuesday, GOP Rep. Steve LaTourette confirmed the previous day's surprise news that he would not seek re-election this November. LaTourette insisted that a spat with leadership over committee assignments did not precipitate his departure, but rather that he'd grown weary of partisan acrimony. Given that LaTourette, an original member of the class of `94, managed to work his way over to the Republican Party's left flank, I think I actually believe him. (LaTourette said he felt that in order to move up in the ranks, "you've got to give [party leaders] your wallet and your voting card.")

As for the selection of a replacement, LaTourette plans to wait until Aug. 8 to formally declare his retirement. By delaying, he'll allow local GOP officials to hand-pick a replacement rather than conduct a special primary. The Great Mentioner is already hard at work: Some potential Republican names include Geauga County Prosecutor David Joyce, state Rep. Ron Young, ex-state Rep. Matt Dolan, and Geauga County Judge Tim Grendell, as well as state Sen. Frank LaRose, U.S. Marshall Pete Elliott, and ex-state Rep. Jamie Callendar.

State Democratic Party chair Chris Redfern, meanwhile, would like to replace Some Dude Dale Blanchard on the ballot with a stronger candidate, but Blanchard would also have to drop out. Unfortunately, Blanchard is definitely not quitting:

"If they ever ask me [to drop out] I'll become a Republican, I'll be that angry. I've always been a Democrat, and I don't understand why they'd ask me to do that," he said. "A big N-O to that. There's no way I'm dropping out. If there was a better candidate they should've run, don't you think? Where were they? I would not surrender the position I have if asked."
I guess the kind of spirit which motivates someone to wage a hopeless run for office in the first place when no one else was willing to step up also brings with it the kind of spirit that makes you definitely not want to quit just because circumstances have changed.

In a different vein, here's something quantitative to back up a point we made when news of LaTourette's retirement first broke: that he had evolved from standard-issue Republican to "moderate" since joining the House in 1994, not by virtue of changing the way he voted so much as the caucus evolved around him, with northeastern moderates to his left slowly vanishing and southern right-wingers joining the party.

The first column in the table in the Congressional cycle (i.e. the 111th was the 2009-2010 session); the second column is his DW/Nominate score for that two-year period (a higher score is more conservative); and the third column is his ranking relative to the rest of the Republican caucus (in the 111th, he was the 11th least-conservative Republican, out of 182 GOP members for whom there was a DW/N score). Check out the near-straight-line evolution, from 39th least-conservative in his freshman year to 11th in 2010, all while his actual votes got, in fact, more conservative over the years.

Congress DW/N score Rank
(among GOP)
111th 0.394 11 (of 182)
110th 0.377 13 (of 205)
109th 0.334 17 (of 235)
108th 0.344 20 (of 232)
107th 0.327 24 (of 225)
106th 0.310 25 (of 223)
105th 0.293 28 (of 229)
104th 0.276 39 (of 235)

(David Nir & David Jarman)

UT-04: The House Majority PAC has another new poll out (this time from GSG instead of GQR) that shows Dem Rep. Jim Matheson edging Saratoga Springs mayor Mia Love by a 51-33 spread. That's probably the rosiest polling to date for Matheson, who faces an exceptionally tough re-election battle, though obviously Love's low score is due to her weaker name recognition. (Though it's not that small: She already has a 31-14 favorability rating, despite having done no TV advertising.) If Matheson does manage to win, it'll probably be with something like that 51% he's currently enjoying in this poll.

Other Races:

San Diego Mayor: The San Diego mayoral race continues to go Bob Filner's way, according to a new poll from Dem firm FM3 (taken on behalf of San Diegans for Bob Filner). The poll has the Democrat, retiring from the U.S. House after 20 years, leading Republican city councilor Carl DeMaio 40-32. (Worth noting, though, the poll is a few weeks old, and for some reason only tested the San Diego Unified School District, which doesn't cover the entire boundaries of the city.) (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Trivia: During a chat with David, I discovered that back in 2000, Connecticut Gov. John Rowland pre-announced his selection of Rep. Nancy Johnson for Joe Lieberman's Senate seat, were he to win the vice presidency. That's surprising not only because most politicians drag out such announcements to keep themselves in the headlines, but also because party loyalty dictates Rowland ought never to have conceived of a Gore/Lieberman win.

So our trivia question: Have there been any other examples of a governor pre-naming someone to a Senate seat that was yet to be vacant? Your answers in the comments below. Although I am thinking it might be "never." (Ben Schaffer)

• Ordinarily, this NYT article isn't the kind of story I'd include in the Digest—it certainly doesn't fit into any of our normal categories. But it's so crazy—so, SO crazy—that I have to link you to it. Take this one on trust, click through, and read the whole thing, because I've never seen anything quite like this, and I doubt you have, either.

Redistricting Roundup:

OH Redistricting: Good news out of Ohio: The group attempting to put a measure on the ballot that would create an independent redistricting commission for the Buckeye State says they've submitted an additional 300,000 signatures in furtherance of their efforts. Organizers fell 130,000 short in their initial attempt, so as long as some 43% of the newest batch are valid, then the measure should go before voters this fall.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  New NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac numbers are gold (15+ / 0-)

    O leads by 6 in OH and FL, by 11 in PA. Hits 50 in every poll.

    Scott's at 36, Kasich's at 47, Corbett's at 38

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 05:48:52 AM PDT

    •  Maybe that PA number is why Obama's team isnt (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, MBishop1, itskevin, Larsstephens

      Maybe that PA number is why Obama's team isnt on the air their anynmore.

    •  That does it. Ohio now officially... (9+ / 0-)

      Leans Dem/Obama. He's been averaging a strong lead for at least a month now. Clearly, OFA is doing something quite potent in Ohio.

    •  Kasich must like that number (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, Larsstephens

      I guess he's known to shut his trap since the whole Issue 2 debacle.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 06:45:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting items in the crosstabs (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Kinak, itskevin, Larsstephens

      Romney only gets a plurality of his voters saying that they strongly favor him, whereas Obama gets solid majorities on that question among his voters. That's a big part of why Romney is trailing.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 06:56:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Florida just seems too good to be true (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Marcus Graly, Larsstephens

      I think declining campaign activity in Pennsylvania supports the Q-poll results there.  Everyone is yanking ads from there!  This would explain it.

      And Ohio makes sense, close enough to the totality of polling to accept seriously.

      Florida is the outlier.  Most others have it much tighter, and never with either guy at 51!  Obama has been weaker there than in Ohio or Pennsylvania in almost all polling, but this says he's much the same.

      I read one GOP blogger question the party ID sampling for both Florida and Pennsylvania.  I throw out criticism of Pennsylvania because, as I said above, the campaigns and their independent expenditure arms are showing the state is becoming secure for Obama.  But for Florida, it's possible that's an issue.  Q-poll has had too much volatility in Florida to take any one poll too seriously.

      But one mitigating factor for Q is that Mark Halperin had a piece a few weeks ago in which an anonymous Romney campaign official, in trying to push back against some bad swing state polling, admitted that Romney had slipped in Florida.  So that's one tidbit of evidence that Obama might really have a slim lead there.  Still, Q-poll looks too optimistic.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 06:59:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Pa.: In addition to Obama winning the state how (5+ / 0-)

      1) ag goes Democratic for the first time
      2) Casey wins reelection (virtually a certainty)
      3) state senate goes democratic (a possibility only, but it is a presidential year)
      4) 1-3 Phila. and/or northeastern congressional seats go Democratic- if Obama margin is big enough-
      5) In 2014 (Sestak or perhaps A. Schwartz?) ousts Corbett, who's numbers are not that great. Don't see how he'll do well with women voters unless they just close their eyes and vote for him.

      "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

      by TofG on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 07:01:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Samples (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Ed Morrisey protests:

      Now let’s take a look at the partisan breakdown (D/R/I) in the sample data for each state, and compare them to 2008 and 2010 exit polling:
      Florida: CBS/NYT 36/27/32, 2008 37/34/29, 2010 36/36/29
      Ohio: CBS/NYT 35/27/32, 2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28
      Pennsylvania: CBS/NYT 38/32/26, 2008 44/37/18, 2010 40/37/23
      The CBS/NYT model has Democrats a +9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a +3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms.  Ohio’s sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D+8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms.  Pennsylvania’s numbers (D+6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s D+3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.

      In other words, these polls are entirely predictive if one believes that Democrats will outperform their turnout models from the 2008 election in Florida and Ohio. That would require a huge boost in Democratic enthusiasm and a sharp dropoff in Republican enthusiasm — which is exactly the opposite that Gallup found last week.

      •  Remember when (8+ / 0-)

        the political media nitpicked the hell out of that Quinnipiac Virginia poll showing a dead heat and a huge shift towards Romney?  Oh wait, me neither.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 07:47:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

          •  We can't answer that question (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG, askew, itskevin

            until election day.  But I suppose that is a proper question.  I have gotten to where I care less about sample composition and crosstabs than I do about corroboration and consistency with the way the campaigns are behaving.  Through that prism, these polls seem OK, with maybe Florida being a little optimistic.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

            by spiderdem on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 08:18:17 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I think on Florida, he has a point (7+ / 0-)

            The polling there is fairly mixed. No clear leader.

            Although SUSA also had similar numbers for Obama recently, among LV. 48-43.  

            Romney hasnt had a lead in PA for a long time. While +11 might be a bit much, it looks Obama has a pretty solid high single digit lead.

            If I'm Romney, the biggest concern is probably Ohio. A conservative pollster, We Ask America, had Obama by a bigger margin than Quinnipiac, +8. Rasmussen and Purple Strategies had small leads for Obama in their most recent polls, while showing Romney in the lead in their previous polls. In other words, in Ohio, there seems to be a clear shift towards Obama.

            We can quibble for samples for one poll, and maybe they are a bit off. But looking at all the polling, Florida seems like a true toss up, while Obama has a clear lead in OH and PA. I dont know that conservatives can really explain that away.

            Also, as far as Gallup. I think that poll on enthusiasm was a national poll, so I dont know how it can be compared to state level polling. Additionally, I think it showed Dems with less enthusiasm in 2008 vs 2004. So, whether that poll is valid, is probably something that can be questioned as well.

          •  No, he's not. One thing I've learned... (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            spiderdem, MBishop1, askew, itskevin, Bharat

            ...over many years of picking apart polls exactly the way Morrissey is doing is that it's really a fool's errand.

            If you look at different polls in the same state, or the same race, conducted relatively close in time (close enough when nothing should be expected to change), one thing you'll find is that polls with very different turnout models will still produce results all in the same ballpark.  There are small differences, but not meaningful ones.  Do this comparison right now with national polls, and you'll see what I mean, as almost all national polls are in the same ballpark of a small Obama lead, usually low-single digits.  Rasmussen is the outlier, explained by their insisting there are substantially more Republicans than Democrats in the electorate, something that has NEVER been true.

            The same exercise can be conducted with state polls in the 2008 Presidential, or the 2010 midterms for Senate and Governor's races.  You'll find the same thing.

            I used to do this kind of microanalysis to "discredit" polls, but then the election would happen and the polls in most races were largley validated, no matter their samples.  Or they were all discredited together, like in NV-Sen 2010.

            One error people make is to "tweak" a poll by changing the turnout model and relying on the crosstabs for a "new" and "corrrected" result.  The problem with that is that crosstabs are unreliable.  It's incorrect to pretend that what a poll says about how indies will vote or how whites will vote or how Hispanics will vote, etc., is accurate, when the subsamples have high margins of error.

            It's best to just trust a reputable pollster enough to throw their numbers into the pile as part of the totality of polling.  Once in awhile a poll has huge red flags that justify completely tossing it out, and once in awhile a particular pollster like Rasmussen proves so unreliable that all its polls should be thrown out.  But as a rule, a pollster who is normally decent and trusted but has a few outputs that are a little off from the norm should just have its polls included in the total sum, with the focus always on the big picture.

            Personally, I think Ohio is mostly right, Pennsylvania is exactly right, and Florida seems overly optimistic.  That 6-point edge in Ohio is nothing out of the ordinary compared to other pollsters, there are others that have had similar numbers.  No most of them don't have Obama breaking 50, but so what?  Pennsylvania is validated by the fact all advertising has been yanked there.  Chuck Todd reports today that OFA has yanked all ads through Labor Day in the state.  It's clear the state is becoming secure, and I bet private polling on both sides has the President up double-digits now.

            Florida is the only true outlier, but even there, it's not completely alone.  There have been a few other polls with similar results.  But on balance this is definitely on the optimistic end.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 09:13:04 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  The problem with Morrisey's analysis (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        is that in these battleground states where Obama is making a personal investment, the Dem turnout is likely to be at 2008 numbers.  The GOP turnout, even if maxed at 2010 would not outnumber the Dems due to registration advantages etc.

        Also consider in a place like Ohio, WAA found 20% of GOPers  supporting Obama.  It's a very different election in the swing states than the rest of the country.  I don't expect Dem turnout to be very high in places like GA, MO etc., but in blue and swing states Dem turnout will be very high.  

        Alternative rock with something to say:

        by khyber900 on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 09:53:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I got TWO fliers from Friends of Esty yesterday (0+ / 0-)

    Both attacking Donovan for corruption.  I have a third from last week.  My scanner at home crapped out so I have to figure a way to scan them at work among my paperwork without my boss seeing me.  

    The two fliers are the typical bullshit.  Donovan being investigated by FBI blah, blah, blah.  Quoting articles from 2-3 months ago that are now dated.

    I've also gotten a few from Roberti attacking both Donovan and Esty as corrupt.  So much for the issues.  It's a good thing the GOP has weak candidates otherwise our side would pretty much nuke any chance of retaining this seat.  The main GOPer Foley has some FBI related issues as well and her main competitor is a back bencher.  A relatively unknown state senator from a rural part of the state.  He has the party backing but not much else.  If the Dems can get through 8/14 intact and come together after this dirty campaign they should not have a problem retaining this seat , unless of course we experience another GOP wave ala 2010.

    One interesting thing though is that I have yet to hear or see any sleazy attacks from Donovan against Esty or Roberti.  The sleazy attacks are coming almost exclusively from 'Friends of Esty' or 'Friends of Roberti'. Donovan's campaign has attacked Esty for her joke of a budget which she co wrote with GOP state senators and offered up as an alternative to Donovan's but I haven't seen much else.  The Esty budget proposal BTW that would have cut state services, not increased taxes on the rich and would have fallen short of balancing the $3 billion (or million, I lose track with so many 0000's) hole left behind by outgoing GOP governor Jodi Rell.  The same budget I believe that was co sponsored by GOP State Senator Toni Boucher who is running to be the representative in CT-04.  The same Toni Boucher who is firmly ensconced in the back pocket of wealthy individuals and companies located in Wilton, CT and has thwarted development of much needed infrastructure improvements in that part of the state to protect those same wealthy entities.  With friends like Boucher, I think you get a good idea of the character of Esty.  Lieberdem all the way.  No thank you.  

    This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

    by DisNoir36 on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 05:57:21 AM PDT

    •  Boucher isn't running for Congress (0+ / 0-)

      although I'd be curious what happens to her Senate seat if it was open (a family friend is running for it as it happens).

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 07:52:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Uh you're right. (0+ / 0-)

        I thought she was running.  She made lots of noise about it.  Her seat will likely be a reliable republican seat.  It covers New Canaan, Wilton, Weston, Redding, Ridgefield, bethel and Westport.  Westport is more liberal but it's easily offset by New Canaan and Wilton.

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 04:30:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  pre-selection of a senator (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Adam B, Kinak, CrazyHorse, Odysseus, homerun

    it happened in Missouri when Mel Carnahan was killed before the election.    The governor announced before the election that Jean Carnahan would be appointed to replace him should he be elected.   He was elected, beating Ashcroft, and Jean Carnahan was then appointed.

  •  San Diego's Scott Peters (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    is a DINO. Awful on SD City Council. Terrible choice here.

  •  MD-06 to early to tell (0+ / 0-)

    There has been zero campaigning in this race and the majority of voters probably have no idea who Delaney is.
    Bartlett has been around forever so he has a lot of name recognition.
    On election day the voters will vote for the democrat. Bartlett doesn't appear to really attempt to win over the democrats in the district/
    Ras still holding steady with Romney up by 3. Really wonder how long he is going to stay out there as the lone poll showing Romney winning.

  •  Romney Proposes to Raise Taxes on 95 Percent (5+ / 0-)

    Via Political Wire, his proposals would cut the tax burden on only five percent of the population. (I'll leave it to you guys to guess which people would benefit.) This analysis comes from Brookings and the Tax Policy Center, so it's legit.

    If I had to guess, I'd say this will be the topic of the next air assault in the coming weeks.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 07:13:31 AM PDT

    •  Ha! No Surprise From King..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Vilsack might have been able to eke out a one-term victory in the political climate of 2008, but it's hard to see how 2012 will be such a perfect storm.  If northwest Iowa stands by their man with the usual numbers as I suspect they will, the math becomes impossible for Vilsack in the newer parts of the district.  Not impossible, but extremely tough.

  •  Wingnut friend of a friend (7+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, TofG, sable, R30A, askew, itskevin, supercereal

    on Facebook unwittingly makes my day:

    "The only poll I really trust is Rasmussen."

    Bless your little wingnut heart.  The pied piper of pollsters strikes again.

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 08:05:45 AM PDT

  •  Jeff Flake (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    That ad is really something else. The way he says, "an Arizona conservative" as if everyone knows what a particularly batshit crazy thing that is to be.

    There used to be a part of me that appreciated what the Tea Party did in their primaries, because at least they were voting for what they believed in, and not what was politically expedient, but now it has turned into this tribalistic bloodbath where the lines of distinction really don't even make sense (Texas senate race). It's just one person saying "ur a librul" at the other.

    •  Tea Party defeats Perry's candidate for Senate, TX (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Here is an older cartoon from Nick Anderson, but it totally captures the essence of yesterday's Tea Party victory over Governor Perry's candidate in the Republican Primary Runoff for US Senator from Texas. Hopefully in a few years they'll have run themselves both over the cliff.

      These are troubling times. Corporations are treated like people. People are treated like things. ... If we ever needed to vote we sure do need to vote now. — Rev. Dr. William Barber, II to the NAACP, July 11, 2012

      by dewtx on Wed Aug 01, 2012 at 10:01:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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